joi, 14 iunie 2012

The Impact of Authoritative Links, Mentions, and Shares on Rankings

The Impact of Authoritative Links, Mentions, and Shares on Rankings


The Impact of Authoritative Links, Mentions, and Shares on Rankings

Posted: 13 Jun 2012 02:11 PM PDT

Posted by Philip Petrescu

Today I want to share with you some interesting details about research that I've done recently and which I have also presented at SMX Advanced Seattle. We also have a blog on our website where we post most of the interesting things that we are working on. From time to time, we also post articles that solve common problems that people in our industry face everyday. What's interesting about these articles is that once they are published on our blog, in less than five minutes, they rank first in Google when searching for their title.

But it's probably easy to rank first for such a long tail keyword right? How about a three-word keyword?

How about two words? Not bad with virtually no links and just a few shares, right?

Here’s another example. Second place from four billion results with no links to the article.

So what's so special about these articles? Why is Google giving them so much attention?

First of all, it's fresh content. Google loves fresh content.

Second, the article is good enough for people to share it on Twitter, Facebook and Google+. On average, these articles get about 50 to 100 shares total.

What would happen if you would have some very influential people share that content?

Martin Macdonald wrote an article at the end of March about someone who apparently ranked for "camper shoes man" on fifth place without any links to the page. Or so he pretended, because Martin has quickly uncovered his hidden network of links. If you haven't seen this article yet, you should check it out, it’s pretty funny:

But let's look at this story from a different point of view. What Martin tried to do here is prove the guy wrong, that he did need some good amount of links to rank for that keyword.

But he managed to accomplish something that even he did not expect. Martin's article actually outranked everyone on the "camper shoes man" keyword with no actual links, only with some good amount of social shares. He even managed to rank second for “camper shoes”.

So what can you learn from this?

  • That the title of your content is very important. There is a very strong correlation between the title and the keyword. Do a little research to see how people search for this kind of content before you name it.
  • That social signals are very important in the early stages of ranking. If your article gets shared by many influential people you get a higher exposure for a limited amount of time.

But are these social signals enough to keep that article to rank well? The answer, as you would expect it, is no.

The data from my research suggests that you get a good exposure for about a week and then you start losing your rankings. If your article is good, this will be enough time for people to start linking to you. Google will then pick up those links and add some important ranking signals to your article.

Unfortunately, that means there is still no long term ranking without some good authoritative links. So let's find out what kind of impact do authoritative links have on rankings.

As you probably already know, Google has more than 200 signals that affect rankings. I have only chosen the ranking factors that are related to links in my research and I have grouped them into the following categories:

  • Quantity
  • Diversity
  • Quality
  • Relevance

In my research I have analyzed multiple keywords that we are competing for and the link data I used comes from both SEOmoz and Majestic SEO.

In the following charts, you will see the top 10 ranking pages for the keyword that I have chosen as an example. These are rendered on the X axis. Depending on the metric that is shown, the values for this metric will appear on the Y axis.

The line that you see in this chart is how a perfect correlation would look like.

Just keep in mind that you will not be able to see a very good correlation when we look at each metric separately. That’s mainly because all the 200 metrics that the Google algorithm uses work together and they don't have that much value when taken separately.

Also, most of the charts only show data about LRDs because I wanted to eliminate any statistical errors coming from site wide links.

First of all let's look at the quantity of links that these pages have. You can see here both links and linking root domains (LRDs).

There is a surprising large amount of links for the 5th and 6th positions.

Why aren't these websites at the top of these results?

Let's compare exact match and partial match LRDs.

You would think that a larger number of exact and partial links should indicate a better ranking. Well, not anymore. Welcome to 2012! The website on the first position has fewer exact match LRDs than the second website. Not to mention the 5th website.

This looks like having a large number of matching anchors is no longer the definitive answer to higher rankings.

Position no. 6 has a very few number of links with exact match compared to the others. That is probably why it’s not ranking higher. However, it looks like there is a big boost given by the brand signals, even though it has a lower relevance.

The red line shows the number of brand + keyword links. They may be counted by Google as both brand signals and partial match keywords, so many people nowadays say that they work really well. Plus these links look natural so you should not incur any penalties.

Let's look at the first two websites in the chart above. The 2nd place has a lot more LRDs with exact match and they make up 70% of all the LRDs. What’s curious is that there are websites ranking in this SERP with less than 10%. Maybe their anchor text distribution is more natural?

Most of the websites ranking here have pretty high ratios of branded LRDs in their link profile just as it would be natural for any website. The first website seems to have a good combination of both brand and brand + keyword anchors.

The major exceptions, the 2nd and the 5th places make us think that with their large number of exact and partial links they would have ranked higher if only they would have a higher number of branded links.

Looking at the percentages, it’s easier to see that most of the top 10 results have more brand signals than exact match anchor texts.

The only exception here is number 2 which has a lot of exact match anchor LRDs.

But since we are comparing branded links with exact and partial match links, why not do a proper comparison?

Again number 2 seems to be the exception here. All I can say is that the Google spam team still has some work to do.

With a PA over 90, the 6th place should outrank everyone. But it doesn't and we can only think that the reason for this is its lack of relevance pointed earlier in the anchor text analysis.

Most of the results have a higher Page Authority than Domain Authority, which suggests that most of their links are pointing to the page ranking in the results.

Even PageRank, taken by itself, doesn’t have a better correlation.

The new metrics from Majestic, Citation flow and Trust flow, show slightly different results for the 1st website that now appears to be less authoritative than the 2nd and 3rd.

Don’t forget that these metrics have just been released and they apply only to the fresh index, which is only for the links parsed in the last 30-45 days. It would be interesting to see these metrics applied for the historical index.

I have also added here Page Authority from SEOmoz to see how it compares with the new Majestic data. They look pretty similar, but I wonder what happened to the first result.

Here’s the distribution of all links by Page Authority. The two sites with most of the links, 5th and 6th places, are clearly shown here. Number 5 though seems to have a lot of low quality links to it, which are probably ignored by Google. And number 6 has a lot more links with higher authority.

But what happens if we combine Relevance with Quality? Number 6 is gone because it does not have enough links with this anchor text. The only thing that keeps it this high may be the brand signals.

If we remove the 5th place from the chart we can see that the other pages seem to have a pretty good natural profile, with 1st place taking the lead.

If we look at the distribution of brand signals, the 6th place not only has a lot more branded links than all the others, but these links also have a higher authority.

Now let’s combine all four categories: Relevance, Quality, Quantity and Diversity. The blue line is the average authority of the exact match followed LRDs (authority and relevance). The red line shows the number of exact match followed LRDs (quantity and diversity).

As you can see, these two lines are opposing each other. Where authority lacks, quantity compensates. So it looks like all these signals work together. Quantity is lowered by quality. Relevance is still the critical factor. Without it, neither quantity or quality matter.

Conclusions:

  • Relevance signals are still important, but having too many is not helpful.
  • Having a lot of brand signals and some relevance is better than having a lot of relevance and no brand or authority.

“If you have 1 million links with anchor text and no brand links then you have a problem.”

I love this quote from David Naylor, and you should definitely do something about it if you are in this situation.

When I first started this research I had hoped that I could at least be able to tell you some of the secrets behind Google’s algorithm. But you know what I found out after gathering and analyzing all this data?

There are no secrets! The algorithm works for you.

Think about it this way.

If you create a great product, what anchor text would people use to link to you? That's right, the name of your product. That's a brand signal.

If you create some great content, how would people link to it? They will probably use some or all the words from the title of your article. Those are exact and partial match anchor text signals.

What happens when all these people share your content or link to it? You become an authority.

So you see, it's not about trying to build authoritative links to your website, it's about becoming an authority yourself.

Stop spending so much time trying to get these links the hard way.

You should spend your valuable time creating a great product that people would want to write about or creating that great content that people would want to share.

That's how you become an authority!


Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

Want to speak at #MozCon 2012?

Posted: 13 Jun 2012 03:42 AM PDT

Posted by Erica McGillivray

We're doing something we've never done before, opening up community speaker submissions for MozCon! We're doing this because MozCon is for our community and because community pitches at our SearchChurch Meetup in Philly were phenomenal.

If you haven't heard, MozCon -- our annual conference taking place July 25th-July 27th in Seattle -- is SOLD OUT. We have 700 amazing people geared up to attend, including Roger Mozbot, and a set of delightful speakers talking about a broad range of subjects from link building to content marketing and more.

And now you can be one of those awesome speakers! We have four 10-minute spots.

Wil Reynolds speaks at MozCon 2011

Because our speaker submissions rocked for the event we threw at SEER's SearchChurch, we wanted to hear from YOU again at MozCon. When we look at our MozCon schedule and realized there was some time we could shuffle around, nothing seemed better than to bring voices from our community right to the center stage. We're looking for 4 people to deliver incredible actionable tips and tricks in SEO, social media, content marketing, analytics, conversion rate optimization, and any other great inbound subject. 

The technical details:

  • Your pitch must be submitted by Wednesday, June 27th at 5pm PDT. 
  • Please submit only 1 pitch. We're looking for the best of the best.
  • Check out the current agenda when coming up with your unique for MozCon topic. Some topics that currently aren't well represented: local SEO, blogging, video, etc.
  • If you've never spoke before or have spoken hundreds of times, we want to hear from you.
  • Presentations will be 10 minutes long with an added ~5 minutes for questions.
  • These sessions will be from 3:30-4:30pm on Friday, July 27th.
  • Presentation PowerPoints will be due one week before MozCon.
  • If you already have a MozCon ticket, we will refund your ticket; and if you don't have one, we'll comp you one! Unfortunately, you will have to book your own hotel, flight, and transportation.
  • You will be invited to attend our speakers' dinner on Wednesday, July 25th.
  • You must be at MozCon in person. Sorry, no Skype, Google Hangout, or other video conferencing.
  • Our community speaker selections are final.

Can't wait to see all mind-blowing topics you come up with!

Hillari and Roger at MozCon 2011

If you're looking for a MozCon ticket, make sure you're signed up for the waiting list. We're currently seeing if we can open up more seats (and believe it or not, people do cancel). Our wait list is first come, first serve. 


Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

Seth's Blog : "I don't even know what I'm afraid of"

"I don't even know what I'm afraid of"

This is the fear that kills brands and b2b sales and individual creativity. It's the fear without a name, without a face, without false facts that can be shot down or arguments that can be reasoned with.

This is the amygdala firing, the lizard brain being triggered without rational explanation.

When we are wrestling against the elusive and resilient fear with no name, often the only choice is to live with it, to care enough about forward motion and practical progress that we can come embrace the inner trembling that won't give up.

In market after market paralyzed with fear, this trembling might be the very best sign that you're on to something.



More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

miercuri, 13 iunie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Spain Bailout Terms: 100 Billion Euros for 15 Years at 3% Interest, No Payment for 5 Years; How to Pay it Back? Hike VAT on Consumers

Posted: 13 Jun 2012 10:41 PM PDT

According to a Google Translate from Libre Mercado, Spain will receive €100 billion for 15 years at 3% interest with no payment due for 5 years.

How will Spain pay for this?
By sticking it to taxpayers, that's how.

Pressure on Spain from Brussels to hike the VAT is intensifying according to a second article on Libre Mercado.

Don't worry, tax hikes will be done "very carefully so that social needs are met". Expect an announcement by June 30.

Can someone tell me why taxpayers are responsible for banks making stupid loans?

Other than platitudes like "socialize the losses, privatize the gains" there is no answer or excuse.

Yet it happens nearly every time (until voters finally tell bankers to go to hell). Hopefully that is the message this Sunday in Greece.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


German Vote on ESM Fails; Still Not Ratified by Germany, Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Slovakia, Netherlands; Political Football Over Financial Transaction Tax

Posted: 13 Jun 2012 04:20 PM PDT

The Wall Street Journal reports European Economics Commissioner Olli Rehn expressed concern Monday that Germany, Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Slovakia, and the Netherlands were dragging their feet in ratifying the ESM.

In the meantime, the Journal reports Spain May Tap EFSF.

The article states "Power broker Germany has yet to complete the process but is expected to do so soon."

That is a distinct downplay of what is really happening.

Political Football Over ESM

In Germany, Chancellor Merkel does not have the votes to ratify the ESM. She needs help from opposition parties. Those opposition parties want a financial transaction tax before they will sign.

Last Sunday German opposition fumed before fiscal pact talks
A media report that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is not serious about implementing a European financial transaction tax threatens to undermine an initial deal struck last week with the opposition over the EU's planned fiscal pact.

Der Spiegel weekly reported on Sunday that Merkel's Chief of Staff, Ronald Pofalla, had said such a tax would not get passed in the current legislative period so the centre-right coalition could support the idea in principle knowing it would not have to act on it any time soon.

Last week, the government and opposition parties agreed on the outlines of a transaction tax proposal. On Monday, further talks between senior party members are due to take place and Merkel wants these to form a basis for a final deal when party chiefs meet on Wednesday.
Of course, Merkel responded she was really serious about financial transaction taxes as per this headline on Monday: Merkel strongly backs financial market tax

My take is a financial transaction tax is a very poor idea, and given political blackmail, it is hard to tell just how committed Merkel would be to such silliness.

ESM Passage Takes 90% of EMU Voting Rights

Bear in mind the ESM does not require 100% passage, but rather 90% of the percentage votes. Germany, France, Italy, and Spain each have veto power. Of that group all but Germany have signed.

Austria, Belgium, and the Netherlands combined could block it. So could a combined Belgium, Netherlands, and Slovakia.

If common sense prevails (theoretically possible but highly unlikely in practice), the ESM will not pass.

German Vote on ESM Fails

The Chicago Tribune reports German parties fail to resolve row over fiscal pact
Germany's government and opposition parties failed on Wednesday to resolve a row holding up parliamentary ratification of both the EU's new fiscal treaty and the euro zone's permanent rescue fund, and will resume talks next week.

The delay is potentially embarrassing for Chancellor Angela Merkel because she has insisted that Germany's European partners sign up to the tougher budget rules enshrined in the compact.

The bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which may be used to provide help for Spain's ailing banks, is meant to start working from July 1 but cannot do so without the approval of Germany, the euro zone's biggest economy.

Merkel wants parliament to approve the two items at the same time, but needs opposition support for the fiscal treaty. The opposition Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens are pressing for a financial transaction tax as well as more steps to generate European growth and jobs in exchange for their support.

"The (next) meeting on June 21 will take the whole day," said conservative lawmaker Volker Kauder, a close ally of Merkel, noting that the parties had managed to agree on many points but some were still open.

Some in the SPD have previously threatened to delay the bill until the autumn. Countries have until the end of the year to ratify the fiscal compact.
How Politics Works

The universal sad state of affairs in politics is that passing something stupid (such as the ESM), requires the passing of something else that is also stupid (in this case the Financial Transaction Tax).

In the end, stupidity is inevitably compounded.

Financial Transaction Tax is Bad Idea

Please see Why the Tobin Tax is a Bad Idea; Sweden's Experience With the Tax for my reasons on why the tax is a bad idea.

No, it would not directly affect me much, if at all, should it pass in the US. Rather, I am concerned about indirect effects as noted in the above link.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Italian Paradox: Italy is Borrowing money at 4-5% to Lend to Spain at 3%; Official Denials From Italy That Italy is Next

Posted: 13 Jun 2012 10:10 AM PDT

Sovereign bond yields in Spain and Italy have been climbing across the board, not just the longer durations. Please consider Italy pays dearly to issue one-year debt.
Italy sold €6.5bn of one-year debt at the highest cost since December, underscoring how one of the world's biggest bond markets has been dragged back into Europe's debt crisis.

The 364-day bills were priced to yield 3.972 per cent, but the bid-to-cover ratio fell to 1.73 from 1.79. At the last auction of similarly dated debt Rome's Treasury only paid 2.34 per cent, according to Bloomberg.
Official Denials

Italy's prime minister Mario Monti "forcefully denied" Italy would be next in line to seek a eurozone bailout.

Monti said comments by Austria's finance minister that Italy was at risk of needing a rescue were "inappropriate".

Corrado Passera, the Italian industry minister, also dismissed the idea that Rome might need external help.

Italy 2-Year Government Bonds



Chart from Bloomberg

Yield charts from Bloomberg seldom if ever match the posted yield. In this case, at the time of capture, Bloomberg show a yield of 4.72%, up 19 basis points.

I have pointed out this discrepancy to Bloomberg on numerous occasions.

Presumably the yields from Bloomberg are correct, while the chart is delayed by some unknown amount.

Spain 2-Year Government Bonds



Chart from Bloomberg

Germany 2-Year Government Bonds



Chart from Bloomberg

Italian Paradox

Italy 1-Year Debt Yield is 3.97%
Italy 2-Year Debt Yield is 4.72%
Italy 10-Year Debt Yield is 6.21%

Italy is Borrowing money at 4-5% to Lend to Spain at 3% (assuming borrowing is at short end of the curve)

Who is Backstopping Whom?



Chart from European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) Publication.

Supposedly Spain is 12.75% responsible to bailout itself.
Italy is 19.18% responsible to bailout Spain.

Does this work?

In retrospect the word "paradox" is wrong. Ponzi scheme is more like it, and the scheme is ultimately backstopped by Germany.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Greece Withdrawals Up Again Due to "Uncertainty"; Situation Not Under Control; US vs. Greece

Posted: 13 Jun 2012 02:02 AM PDT

Here is an interesting headline from the Greek website Ekathimerini: Withdrawals up again due to uncertainty.
The political polarization and uncertainty regarding Greece's position in the eurozone generated a fresh spike in bank withdrawals last week.

In the last few days, withdrawals have increased again as bank clients convert their money into foreign bonds (mostly German) or opt for various alternative investments based on the US dollar in mutual funds.

In May, deposit withdrawals were estimated to have amounted to 5 or 6 billion euros. Bank officials say the situation remains under control, pointing at the completion of the first phase of the recapitalization plan with the disbursement of 18 billion euros to the country's four main commercial banks that has strengthened them considerably.
What about Capital Controls and Border Controls?

Reuters reports Euro zone discussed capital controls if Greek exits euro
EU officials have told Reuters the ideas are part of a range of contingency plans. They emphasized that the discussions were merely about being prepared for any eventuality rather than planning for something they expect to happen - no one Reuters has spoken to expects Greece to leave the single currency area.

But with increased political uncertainty in Greece following the inconclusive election on May 6 and ahead of a second election on June 17, there is now an increased need to have contingencies in place, the EU sources said.

Belgium's finance minister, Steve Vanackere, said at the end of May that it was a function of each euro zone state to be prepared for problems. These discussions have been in that vein, with the specific aim of limiting a bank run or capital flight.

As well as limiting cash withdrawals and imposing capital controls, they have discussed the possibility of suspending the Schengen agreement, which allows for visa-free travel among 26 countries, including most of the European Union.

"Contingency planning is underway for a scenario under which Greece leaves," one of the sources, who has been involved in the conference calls, said. "Limited cash withdrawals from ATMs and limited movement of capital have been considered and analyzed."
Things Uncertain

  • Who will win the election?
  • Does it even matter who wins?
  • Will Greece return to the drachma?
  • Will Greece or the EU impose capital controls?
  • Will Greece or the EU impose border controls?

On the surface that seems like one heck of a lot of uncertainty. However, let's look at what is certain.

Things Certain

  • It is 100% certain the risk of confiscation makes it foolish to leave "excess cash" in Greek banks. By "excess cash" I mean deposits greater than what is immediately needed to pay current bills.
  • It is 100% certain that no good can possibly come to those who do leave "excess cash" in bank accounts. 
  • It is 100% certain the need for safety overrides the check-writing convenience of keeping "excess cash" in banks.

One can easily argue that "all" deposits, not just "excess" deposits should be in a foreign bank. However, a rational-thinking person might also worry about confiscation by other European banks.

Regardless, it is 100% certain the sensible thing to do is to remove money from Greek banks. That certainty is the true driver of capital flight.

U.S. vs. Greece

Some might argue the US is in the same boat as Greece. After all, what good can leaving money in a US bank do?

Such arguments are misplaced.

In the US, there is not a safer place to keep excess cash, at least up to the FDIC limit. In the US, it is 100% certain the dollar is not on the verge of a forced devaluation to "wollars". Finally, common sense suggests having enough liquid assets in cash for emergencies.

In Greece, the "need" for safety overrides the "desire" for convenience.

No Mad Rush Yet - Why?

In light of the above, inquiring minds might be wondering why the capital flight in Greece has been relatively orderly.

The simple explanation is people cannot or do not think. Those who do carefully consider probabilities long ago decided to yank their money. Others are just now thinking, which explains the continued capital flight.

Those who have not yet yanked their deposits from Greek banks have either not considered the compelling risk-reward setup for immediately pulling out all excess cash or they foolishly believe political promises that Greece will stay on the euro.

What Is Being Rescued?

My friend Pater Tenebrarum comments on the situation in Velvet Glove, Iron Fist
The idea of imposing capital controls and limiting the free movement of people across borders are likewise threats that must make every thinking person wonder what the hell the whole 'rescue operation' is supposed to be 'rescuing'. After all, these are basic tenets of the EU treaties the possible suspension of which the eurocrats are discussing here. This is what the EU was established for in the first place: to enable the free movement of people, goods and capital. If these are suspended, then what is it that is being rescued?

It seems rather obvious to us that when citizens can no longer get their property from the banks and can no longer move their bodies and capital freely within the EU, then what is 'protected' are not they, but the solely the bankers and the political and bureaucratic elite.
Situation Not Under Control

When bank officials feel the need to state "the situation remains under control", rest assured it is 100% certain that things are not under control. Threats of capital controls and restriction of movement prove just that.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List