Central Perk

vineri, 3 august 2012

West Wing Week: "98 & 98"

Your Daily Snapshot for
Friday, August 3, 2012

West Wing Week: "98 & 98"

This week, the First Lady brought ‘Let’s Move!’ to the Summer Olympics, the President signed both the US-Israel Enhanced Security bill and HEARTH act, hosted twelve new Ambassadors to the United States, and met with inspirational groups of young people, both the PECASE science and engineering early career award winners and the 98 boys and 98 girls of the 2012 American Legion Auxiliary. That’s July 27th to August 2nd or “98 & 98.”

Watch this week's behind-the-scenes video.

Investigating Panda & Duplicate Content Issues

Investigating Panda & Duplicate Content Issues

Posted: 02 Aug 2012 05:56 AM PDT

During a recent analysis of a website (blog with less than 50k visitors a week), we came across some interesting factors that led to us taking a different approach to investigation.

The Problem:

The site faced 20-40% drop in traffic corresponding with periods in roll outs of the Panda Algorithm.
The site saw a loss in rankings, but no consistency across them – some keywords moved down a few positions, while others went off the first 2-3 pages of the SERPs.
The site is a blog, and as a result most of the content written was original and unique, and written by a single person based on their research and experience.
The site has been in existence for over 6 years and attracts a lot of natural links – in fact no link building to the site has ever been carried out.

From the above, this doesn't seem like your typical target for Panda, but the dates of the traffic drops were too much of a coincidence.

Panda: A Reminder

High-quality sites algorithm improvements. [launch codenames "PPtl" and "Stitch", project codename "Panda"] In 2011, we launched the Panda algorithm change, targeted at finding more high-quality sites. We improved how Panda interacts with our indexing and ranking systems, making it more integrated into our pipelines. We also released a minor update to refresh the data for Panda.

And one piece of advice for working on a recovery:

One other specific piece of guidance we’ve offered is that low-quality content on some parts of a website can impact the whole site's rankings, and thus removing low quality pages, merging or improving the content of individual shallow pages into more useful pages, or moving low quality pages to a different domain could eventually help the rankings of your higher-quality content.

(bolded sections highlighted by us)

A full list of questions to ask and answer when analysing a Panda hit site: http://googlewebmastercentral.blogspot.co.uk/2011/05/more-guidance-on-building-high-quality.html I previously covered this here: http://www.seoptimise.com/blog/2011/10/seo-tactics-to-tame-the-panda.html and Kevin covered it here http://www.seoptimise.com/blog/2011/05/how-to-survive-a-panda-attack.html

The Investigation

Often, QUALITY sites that were affected by Panda lost only a few key pages in rankings across a whole host of content. Keep in mind that Panda looked at a range of signals on content quality. On the sites that we have worked, the two main factors were:

Originality of content (duplicates? Does it appear original and unique?).
Volume of content and signals of sharing the content.

NOTE: A lot of SEOs believe that the Panda Algo is NOT page specific – but experience shows that a few major ranking losses and a site wide dip, due to Panda, are linked to specific pieces of content that causes an activation of the Panda filter. We have found that a cross-section of Panda-hit sites would either take major site-wide hits (thus losing right across the board) or would lose a few key sections, content pieces, AND have smaller losses across the site.

"…improve the quality of content or if there is some part of your site that has got especially low-quality content, or stuff that really (is) not all that useful, then it might make sense to not have that content on your site…." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMDx8wFAYYE

(bolding ours)

Keyword Referral Variation Analysis

Typically we would run a range of different investigations on the site, including a Keyword Referral Variation analysis on post and pre Panda hit periods. This is done for sites that never really did any SEO, and as such didn't keep a record of rankings and ranking fluctuations. It gives a decent snapshot of what the primary drivers were.

However, one more issue reared its head – "not provided". In the same Year-on-Year period pre-panda, the site had virtually no "not provided" keywords, but in the post-panda season the value grew to such a large portion that a Year-on-Year keyword analysis would be largely flawed:

As you can see from the above sheet, the top 10 key phrases show a significant dip, but the massive growth in "not provided" makes that analysis importent. Over 31K visitors weren't attributed a keyword, so it's difficult to gauge where the primary ranking drops would be.

Isolating Page Losses

With "not provided" hiding referrers, it's not possible to isolate specific keyword hits. This means we may have to take another route to isolating areas of loss.

An interesting way to do this is to look at pages, previously driving traffic, broken down to identify which pages have lost their referrals from search compared to previous periods.

Next we extracted the top 100 entry pages for each period – 2011 and 2012, cross referenced them and highlighted common pages, new pages and cross referenced the traffic.

In 2011, the top 100 pages captured 367K visitors. In 2012, this figure was 290K – a difference of 79K.

The key was to isolate all the top content pages to understand what their primary losses were.

What we did:

Downloaded all the top 100 entry pages and visitors for Period 1 and Period 2.
Dropped them into excel and instead of messing about with pivots etc. we went for the low tech version. This included conditional formatting and as a result found all that were in both columns and highlighted them.
After which we sorted by colour, then alphabet, which gave us a neat comparison.
We then ran a simple formula on visitor drop and then used conditional formatting to highlight scale.

The result:

This is just a snapshot, but you can see that there were a couple of really good pages in there, and some completely obliterated.

The next step would be to isolate all the big drops and look at those pages individually. We like to strip them all out and create a new sheet for clients to look at, using conditional formatting to highlight severe losses and order of priority:

Building a Strategy to Recover from Panda

Is it possible to recover? Yes. Is it easy? No. The change is algorithm-based, which means tweaking, then waiting, then tweaking a bit more. But, a recovery is possible, if we isolate the issues.

Quoting Matt Cutt's Latest video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8IzUuhTyvJk

"Remember, Panda is a hundred percent algorithmic. There's nothing manual involved in that. And we haven't made any manual exceptions. And the Panda algorithm, we tend to run it every so often. It's not like it runs every day. It's one of these things where you might run it once a month or something like that. Typically, you're gonna refresh the data for it. And at the same time, you might pull in new signals. And those signals might be able to say, 'Ah, this is a higher-quality site."

The steps needed in this case:

Isolate all the top losses and work out the total loss as a result. (done!)
Identify a common factor amongst these to try and form a pattern.
Confirm that the pattern identified matches industry reported reasons for Panda Filters.
Investigate any other issues such as loss of link equity, navigation, crawlability.
Fix said issues.
Try and add more positive signals to fixed content.
Wait for a Panda refresh and see how site performs.
Rinse and repeat.

Step 1. Isolating the data

In the analysis of the top 100 pages, the 25 pages that were identified with losses, contributed to a 95K drop in visitors in the time frame analysed! These pages should be a starting point for the site in terms of trying to understand patterns.

Step 2. Common patterns

Interestingly, poor content and duplicate content can often trigger Panda hits – one of the main targets were scraper sites. One of the first things we tend to do is isolate content from hit pages and "fuzzy match" them to search results. Which is a fancy way of saying, take a piece of content, drop it into the search bar and see what comes up!

Random samples of content from a page dropped into Google:

The pink sections are matches to the content – i.e. Google bolds them. As you can see, 3 out of the first 4 are exact or close matches. The grey block is the site in question.

We took another part of the page, in quotes this time, and dropped it into Google:

Insanely there were 42 exact matches – the original site didn't even show up on the first page! As a side note, I checked the date on most of those sites – they are published at least a year AFTER the clients original content.

We did this for the top 100 hit pages and came up with:

Interestingly, as we move down the scale of pages that were hit, the lower the hits, the lower the duplication! Now don't take that as a correlation, but it is interesting nonetheless.

Summary

What did we learn? Essentially, although this blog owner has been publishing GOOD content for many, many years, the fact that people have been copying and pasting that content for years only came to light AFTER Panda.

Most of the pages hit were either copied in part, or full, by either scraper sites, or really powerful sites.
Despite the age of the articles, some of them have been overtaken by other sites on this basis.
Some older articles that have lost rankings, to add insult to injury, have had inbound link loss.
In certain situations, articles have been overtaken by “authority sites” such as .gov sites – something that isn't easy to recover from.
In some situations, articles are a lot less useful to queries than they were, primarily because exact match articles have replaced them or the query no longer has any volume.
Google also updated caffeine filters (freshness algorithm) and the age of content may cause it to drop in favour of fresher content

The type of sites we found copying their content or sections of their content:

- Scrapers.

- Forums (such as money savings expert forum users quoting them!).

- Other blogs taking large blocks of text.

- Genuine Businesses(!) taking whole sections off to promote their own businesses.

- Government sites that were using portions of their text written years prior about certain guidelines.

The losses came by a dip in rankings through:

- Massively copied pages disappearing from the index.

- Content that had portions quoted in forums dropped a few places.

- Pages that had content that was copied by high authority forums and Government sites fell out of index or were massively lowered in rankings.

- A resultant Panda filter, in our opinion, which lowered the value of the whole site.

- Some content was topical in the previous year, which has low search volume now. This is a natural dip in traffic.

Other issues contributing to these factors that may play a role:

- Most of the losses came from older established blog posts – not been updated in a long time. Was Google using a filter to show newer pages with that content instead?

- Some key pages suffered link loss – although this needs further investigation, there may be further room to help that along.

- Some of these posts were written way before social shares existed – thus low or no social shares on them for a very long time – nor was there any incentive on the content to do so.

- Bounce rates had gone up from 70% average to 85% average – we investigated the content – it is still relevant and correct, but we feel that the date which is prominently displayed on the post may put visitors off, who are bouncing away.

Related Google Algorithm factors that may also be to blame:

- Caffeine (close correlation with content outranking).

- Bounce backs (increase in bounce rate)? (not proven).

- Lack of Social Signals (not proven).

Potential Actions and Solutions:

Try and get Author Attribution – since this is a blog, which has been running for a long time, and has established followers, they should get their attribution in place – this helps make the site a lot more "legitimate". More reading here:

- http://www.seomoz.org/blog/authorship-google-plus-link-building

- http://yoast.com/wordpress-rel-author-rel-me/

Legal action and a DMCA request – where necessary and appropriate, get content disavowed in Google. Further resources here:

- http://blog.kissmetrics.com/content-scrapers/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dGM4TXhIOFd3c1hZR2NHUDN1NmllU0E6MQ

- https://www.google.com/webmasters/tools/dmca-notice?pli=1&

Refresh and rewrite badly hit pages. A take down request etc. takes time – it is often easier to rewrite content, at the same time making it "fresh" in the algorithm's view, and so a double benefit. Adding more content to "light pages" and adding resources etc. to heavy pages also seems to help make a piece of content authoritative.

Social shares and fresh links. The content is actually of a decent quality, but the lack of focus for social sharing means they are losing out on valuable traffic, at the same time not sending social signals that legitimises the content. Generating a decent number of +1's, tweets, etc. can help get the content re-crawled more often as well. At the same time, to speed up the re-ranking process, we suggest getting some fresh links into content that has had the most link loss.

Seth's Blog : This or that?

This or that?

Don't follow, lead.
Don't copy, create.
Don't start, finish.

or even,

Don't sit still, move.
Don't fit in, stand out.
Don't sit quietly, speak up.

Not all the time, sure, but more often.

• Email to a friend •

joi, 2 august 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

China Buys U.S. Businesses at Record Pace; What are the Implications? Will Alarm Bells Ring?
US Factory Orders "Unexpectedly" Decline; US Car Sales "Unexpectedly" Decline; Expect the Unexpected
Draghi Hints at Bond Buying But Rules Out Banking License and Warns Governments Must Use EFSF/ESM, ECB Cannot Replace Governments; 10-Year Yield Back Over 7%

China Buys U.S. Businesses at Record Pace; What are the Implications? Will Alarm Bells Ring?

Posted: 02 Aug 2012 10:42 PM PDT

CNN Money reports Chinese buying of U.S. business at record pace

Chinese direct investment in the United States could hit a record high in 2012, according to a new research report released Wednesday.

Total Chinese foreign direct investment in the U.S. is on pace to reach at least $8 billion this year, according to the report from research firm Rhodium Group.

That would top the previous record of $5.7 billion reached in 2010, said Thilo Hanemann, research director with Rhodium Group, which tracks all acquisitions and investments in manufacturing facilities, warehouses, labs and offices by foreign companies in the United States valued at $1 million or higher.

In manufacturing, the biggest investments are being made by Chinese firms with products that have been slapped with hefty anti-dumping tariffs, Hanemann said.

Opening up a plant in the United States allows Chinese firms such as Golden Dragon Precise Copper Tube Group, Inc. -- which broke ground this year on a $100 million plant in Thomasville, Ala. -- to avoid these tariffs.

What are the Implications?

China buying US businesses is a necessary part of correcting global imbalances.

As a direct function of trade math, China's reserves must eventually return to the US. The only way that will not happen is if the US defaults on foreign-held treasuries.

However, don't be deceived by the words "record pace".

To put the $8 billion of direct investment in perspective, China has close to $1.75 trillion in US dollar reserves and $3.2 trillion worth of total reserves.

Will Alarm Bells Ring?

Some might be alarmed by China buying US businesses.

Actually this is a good thing, and the faster things speed up, the better off the US and China will both be. Direct investment will provide much-needed jobs in the US and it will alleviate China's dependence on an unsustainable model of fixed investment.

Unfortunately, "record pace" is nowhere close enough to matter, but all trends start somewhere. The key point is that mathematically, dollars must return home, and the sooner it happens the better off the global economy will be.

Don't expect alarmists in Congress and union sympathizers to see it that way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

US Factory Orders "Unexpectedly" Decline; US Car Sales "Unexpectedly" Decline; Expect the Unexpected

Posted: 02 Aug 2012 11:57 AM PDT

The words for the day once again are "unexpectedly declined". I have a couple of examples.

The New York Times reports U.S. Factory Orders Fall Unexpectedly

New orders for factory goods unexpectedly fell in the United States in June, a fresh sign that the slowdown in the country's manufacturing sector will probably stretch into the second half of the year.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday that new orders for manufactured goods dropped 0.5 percent during the month. Economists in a Reuters poll had forecast a rise of 0.5 percent.

American factories appear to be one of the sectors most vulnerable to Europe's festering debt crisis. The trend in American manufacturing has appeared softer and has added to concerns the economic recovery is losing steam. The decline in new orders in June will probably mean softer output down the road, which could weigh on economic growth.

Car Sales "Somewhat Softer Than Expected"

Yesterday, Yahoo!Finance reported U.S. auto sales remain soft in July

Major automakers reported U.S. auto sales for July that were somewhat softer than expected as high U.S. unemployment and weak consumer confidence kept would-be buyers on the sidelines.

July auto sales showed the continuation of what has been a slowdown in growth since the late spring. Sales early this year shot past even the most bullish forecasts, but starting in May, the rate of improvement started to weaken.

"If we were talking in February this year and you asked me what we're going to have July, I'd say at least 14 and a half," said TrueCar.com analyst Jesse Toprak. "But we're going to barely get to 14."

GM, the largest U.S. automaker, reported on Wednesday a 6 percent drop in July U.S. sales, while Ford posted a 4 percent drop. The smallest U.S. automaker, Chrysler Group LLC, posted a 13 percent increase.

GM and Ford both pinned their declines on lower sales to fleet customers like rental car companies. GM's fleet sales fell 41 percent, in line with the company's forecast last month.

But their overall results were still lower than some estimates. Analysts had expected better financing deals, pent-up demand and increased construction spending to offset the sluggish U.S. economy.

Toyota sales were up 26 percent to 164,898 in July. A year ago, Toyota was still grappling with major vehicle shortages stemming from the March earthquake in Japan. In a release, Toyota said customers were taking advantage of long-term, low-interest financing at low lease rates.

Expect the Unexpected

Why economists could not see this coming is a mystery. Manufacturing new orders have collapsed virtually everywhere, including the US. GDP, a lagging indicator, is 1.5% annualized, well below the stall speed of 2%.

Based on new orders and anecdotal evidence from the world's largest auto parts manufacturer, I confidently predicted on July 9, Global Collapse In Auto Sales Coming Up.

On July 2, I noted US Manufacturing ISM Contracts for First Time in Three Years; New Orders and Prices Plunge; Perfect Miss: 0 of 70 Economists Polled By Bloomberg Expected Contraction

Yesterday I noted Dismal Manufacturing Numbers Worldwide; US ISM in Contraction Second Month.

Yet economists were surprised by today's "unexpected decline" in US Factory Orders and yesterday's decline in auto sales.

The surprise ought to have been that car sales and factory orders held up as well as they did.

Growing Evidence of Recession

With each economic report, it becomes more clear the US is already in recession, yet economists cannot see that yet either.

If the jobs report is miserable tomorrow, and I expect it to be, then expect economists to be surprised by that too. For Friday's job forecast ADP predicts +163,000 jobs but I'll Take the Under (Way Under).

The economic consensus for Friday is about +100,000 jobs and I will take the under on that as well. Zero to 50,000 would not surprise me in the least.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Draghi Hints at Bond Buying But Rules Out Banking License and Warns Governments Must Use EFSF/ESM, ECB Cannot Replace Governments; 10-Year Yield Back Over 7%

Posted: 02 Aug 2012 08:20 AM PDT

Today the ECB left interest rates unchanged and hinted at future bond purchases but also warned "Governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM".

The Financial Times has details in Draghi prepares for fresh bond buying

Draghi admitted to Bundesbank reservations about bond-buying and made clear that governments would first have to apply to the eurozone's rescue funds – the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Stability Mechanism – and accept "strict and effective conditionality".

"First of all governments need to go to the EFSF; the ECB cannot replace governments."

Mr Draghi also said the ECB "may consider" further non-standard measures but declined to elaborate.

Mr Dragi indicated there would be no immediate intervention. "In the coming weeks we will design the appropriate modalities for such policy measures," he said."

He said that all members of the ECB's governing council had endorsed the framework of measures "with one exception."

"It's clear and it's known that Mr Weidmann and the Bundesbank have their reservations about the programme of buying bonds," he added.

He also ruled out giving the eurozone's rescue funds a banking licence, a move that could vastly increase their firepower but which is firmly opposed by the Germany and other core eurozone members. "The current design of the ESM does not allow it to be recognised as a suitable counterparty.

Text of Draghi's Press Conference

I cannot find some of the direct quotes the Financial Times mentions, but the gist of the Financial Times' translation seems accurate.

Here are some snips from ECB President Draghi Statement to Press Conference

Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged, following the decrease of 25 basis points in July. As we said a month ago, inflation should decline further in the course of 2012 and be below 2% again in 2013.

Exceptionally high risk premia are observed in government bond prices in several countries and financial fragmentation hinders the effective working of monetary policy. Risk premia that are related to fears of the reversibility of the euro are unacceptable, and they need to be addressed in a fundamental manner. The euro is irreversible.

In order to create the fundamental conditions for such risk premia to disappear, policy-makers in the euro area need to push ahead with fiscal consolidation, structural reform and European institution-building with great determination. As implementation takes time and financial markets often only adjust once success becomes clearly visible, governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional financial market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist – with strict and effective conditionality in line with the established guidelines.

The adherence of governments to their commitments and the fulfilment by the EFSF/ESM of their role are necessary conditions. The Governing Council, within its mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term and in observance of its independence in determining monetary policy, may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective. In this context, the concerns of private investors about seniority will be addressed. Furthermore, the Governing Council may consider undertaking further non-standard monetary policy measures according to what is required to repair monetary policy transmission. Over the coming weeks, we will design the appropriate modalities for such policy measures.

Yields Soar

Draghi's statements sent the Spain 10-year bond yield soaring back above 7%, currently 7.13, up 40 basis points.

Yield on Italy's 10-year government bond is up 30 basis points to 6.23%.

Clearly the market was expecting far more after Draghi's statements last week that the ECB would do "whatever it takes".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

vineri, 3 august 2012

West Wing Week: "98 & 98"

Investigating Panda & Duplicate Content Issues

Investigating Panda & Duplicate Content Issues

The Problem:

Panda: A Reminder

The Investigation

Keyword Referral Variation Analysis

Isolating Page Losses

Building a Strategy to Recover from Panda

The steps needed in this case:

Step 1. Isolating the data

Step 2. Common patterns

Summary

Potential Actions and Solutions:

Seth's Blog : This or that?

This or that?

More Recent Articles

joi, 2 august 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

vineri, 3 august 2012

West Wing Week: "98 & 98"

Investigating Panda & Duplicate Content Issues

Investigating Panda & Duplicate Content Issues

The Problem:

Panda: A Reminder

The Investigation

Keyword Referral Variation Analysis

Isolating Page Losses

Building a Strategy to Recover from Panda

The steps needed in this case:

Step 1. Isolating the data

Step 2. Common patterns

Summary

Potential Actions and Solutions:

Seth's Blog : This or that?

This or that?

More Recent Articles

joi, 2 august 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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