joi, 4 octombrie 2012

Why Big Content Is Worth the Risk

Why Big Content Is Worth the Risk


Why Big Content Is Worth the Risk

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 07:56 PM PDT

Posted by Dr. Pete

We all want the low-hanging fruit, but let’s be honest – the low-hanging fruit is rotten, bruised, and covered with the grubby fingerprints of all the other spoiled brats pawing at it. There’s a time for easy wins, but easy only gets you so far. Sadly, I see too many SEOs putting days or weeks of effort into crafting the perfect low-value scheme, when that same time could’ve easily gone into content that has real staying power and drives sales.

I’m obsessed with “Big Content” lately – resources that go beyond our narrow bins of blog posts, videos, and infographics. I’m going to show you how that obsession is paying off, and why building real content is easier than you think.

I. What Is Big Content?

First, let me apologize for introducing another important-sounding but vague and probably useless term. I’m only calling it “Big Content” because the examples I’m thinking of defy any single definition. I want this to be actionable, so let me try to pin down what I’m taking about…

1. Big Content Takes Effort

If you want easy, then stop reading (this article is pretty long, and that sandwich won’t eat itself). The #1 attribute of big content is that it takes time and effort – it doesn’t have to be expensive, but you have to invest something into it (and, as they say, time is money). The problem with easy is that what’s easy for you is easy for everyone else, too. If anyone can do it, a tactic quickly loses impact. You can’t build a lasting competitive advantage with easy.

Here’s what most people don’t get, though – once you get good at big, big gets easier. You learn how to be efficient, tap outside resources, and manage risks. The more you create big content, the more you see opportunities that weren’t there before. You have to put in the effort and make the mistakes – if you’re stuck on easy, big will always be out of your reach.

2. Big Content Breaks Molds

I don’t think “big” content fits any particular format, but what I have noticed is that the examples that fit my idea of big all seem to break the format mold – they’re either hybrids or somehow more than just the sum of their parts. I think examples speak louder than explanations here, so let’s look at a couple.

Here’s a great concept put together by SimplyBusiness  - a WordPress Guide for Small Business. At first glance, you might think it’s “just” a flowchart:

Big Content Sample - Flowchart

Click on “NO” under any section, though, and you get a custom resource to answer the question. Some of these are links out, but others are videos created specifically for this project:

Big Content Sample - Flowchart + Video

Flowchart + links + video = something bigger. Here’s another recent example by the folks at Seer Interactive, an interactive content piece called “How Do They Make Money”:

Big Content Example - Infographic

At first glance, it looks like an infographic, but click on any company logo and you’ll see the real content in action:

Big Content Example - Infographic + Data

Again, if you want to over-simplify, it’s just icons + pop-ups, but the whole effect is a useful and professional piece that really engages people. Both of these examples also clearly have a lot of research and effort behind them.

3. Big Content Can Be Small

Big content needs big concepts, but it doesn’t have to be lengthy. One of my first introductions to big content was a 1-page PDF I created back in February of 2009, a 25-point usability checklist.  What was big about it? Well, even though it was only a single page, it represented not only years of client experience, but 30-40 hours of work just to create the list itself. I distilled a ton of usability texts and much longer checklists and combined that with my own experiences to create something that I really felt represented a lot of knowledge in a small space.

This was also my introduction to just how successful big content can be. The piece not only attracted traffic and links, but it ended up in books and classes and introduced me to dozens of respected members of my industry. What’s more, this content had real staying power – even though I wrote it over 3-1/2 years ago and have barely touched my consultancy blog this year, here are the 2012 traffic stats for just that one piece:

Checklist Stats - 56.898 pageviews

While this content took a lot of up-front effort, I’ve spent almost no time on it in 2012, and yet it drove almost 50K unique pageviews and over half the entrances to my site. It’s an investment that’s paid itself off a hundred times over.

II. Benefits of Big Content

Now that you have some idea of what I mean by “big content”, let’s dive right into the tangible benefits. Sure, big content drives traffic and links, but so does any successful content. I want you to understand what sets big apart, and why it’s more than just quantity…

1. Big Content Has Longevity

People come back to big content, as my experience with the usability checklist illustrates. If you put enough effort and research into a piece and make it truly unique, it’s almost naturally “evergreen”, even long after publication. There’s a step even beyond evergreen, though – big content has a way of creating audience or at least being in the right place at the right time when that audience is ready for it.

Let me give you an example. Another big content piece I’ve been deeply involved in is the Google Algorithm History here on SEOmoz – not only is it a big piece in scope, but we’ve actively updated it since launch, making it somewhat unique in the realm of historical posts. I intended it to be a “living” document.

While the Algo History has been popular, it started out a lot like any other piece of content – it had an initial spike that then settled into a steady hum. This is the first two months:

Algo History traffic - first two months

While the initial spike was respectable (just over 9K pageviews), this is a pretty typical pattern for our blog posts – a big opening day that levels off in a few days. Admittedly, the Algo History did keep on producing traffic, but the rest of 2011 was a steady trickle (in the realm of 200-400 pageviews/day). Overall 2011 traffic to the page was about 63K unique pageviews.

This pattern continued for the first couple of months of 2012 – there was some slow build-up, but nothing earth-shaking. Then, along came April:

Algo History - Penguin spike and 2012

On April 25th, traffic to the page spiked. Recognize that date? It’s the day after Penguin, and the start of a newfound interest in the algorithm. Remarkably, that interest has stayed steady, even months after the initial Penguin update, and the page has topped 200K unique pageviews for the first 9 months of 2012.

Long story short, the Algo History isn’t just “evergreen” – it’s sprouted an entire forest. Big content is positioned to be ready when your industry changes – it has the trust and authority to capitalize on the moment, whenever that moment arrives.

2. Big Content Is A Barrier to Entry

Remember what I said about easy not giving you a competitive advantage? Easy is easy to copy, but big builds barriers. The Algo History wasn’t the first piece of its kind, so we knew we had to do it bigger and better – once we were done, we raised the bar for everyone after us. I’m not conceited enough to think that no one can ever write about the topic again or that someone won’t do it better someday, but expectations are higher now, and that makes the competition’s job tougher. In search, these barriers even become self-building – big content that gets links and social mentions climbs the rankings, getting more links, and on and on. It builds traffic, it builds brand, and it builds walls that people who are stuck on easy will never be able to climb.

3. Big Content Drives Big Ideas

Easy is an assembly line process – it creates more of the same and is ultimately a numbers game. Big fosters innovation and can change the process. When we were researching the Algo History, I was left with a nagging feeling – we just didn’t know much about the Google algorithm. So, I started thinking about ways we could measure how much Google changes day-to-day, and months later MozCast was born:

MozCast

That was just the beginning, though. MozCast wasn’t just big content – it was an engine to generate and analyze data that very few people had. In August, I scored an SEOmoz first (for me) – we scooped the big news sites and spotted the 7-result SERP launch. Not only that, we were able to show how widespread those SERPs were – my post and data were picked up by SEL, SER, and even The Guardian. Since then, MozCast data has helped power a handful of other popular posts on the SEOmoz blog

Sorry, I’m not trying to rewrite my resume here, but I want to hammer in a point. What started with one piece of big content (the Algo History) turned into a new tool (and public website), a new data set, a handful of content, and an entire new direction for me. I had actually built content that generated data that generated new content. Put simply, my content was creating content. That’s pretty amazing, if I do say so myself.

III. Managing Risks & Costs

So, I know what you’re thinking – sure, you guys just got $18M worth of funding. What about the rest of us? This is the #1 myth I want to dispel – big content takes effort, but it doesn’t have to cost a fortune, and there are ways to manage the risks. Here are three tactics that have made all the difference for me and made every piece of big content I’ve built possible…

1. Build a Minimum Viable Product (MVP)

Sometimes, you just don’t know if something is going to work until you try it. MozCast started out as a concept, a couple of equations, and a 50-keyword crawler (built in PHP and MySQL). I built the back-end myself – including the current version – and I only got the team involved when I had proven to myself and them that the data was interesting. This kept our risk and investment very low, and when I finally had something worth building, the team was happy to get involved.

There’s always risk, of course, but the idea of an MVP goes far beyond just products. A big blog post can start with an outline, a video can start with a storyboard, an infographic can start with a back-of-the-napkin sketch. Build enough that you can get the idea in front of people and in motion, and see if it takes on a life of its own. If it does, you’ve got something. If not, you aren’t out much time and money.

2. Don’t Bet the Farm on One Idea

Once you’re comfortable with Minimum Viable Products, you start to get more comfortable with failure, because failing is no longer catastrophic. A lot of my content is built on data, for example, and so I almost always have 2-3 experiments going on. In other words, I’m collecting data for 2-3 ideas. About two out of three of those either don’t work or just aren’t interesting. So what? The one that does work is usually more than enough to make up for the failures. The real risk isn’t that one of my ideas will fail – the real risk is only having one idea in play.

3. Find Your Big Evangelists

One of the tricks of big content is that someone has to really own it – it’s going to take time, organization, and follow-through. You don’t need a big agency, though, or the industry’s foremost expert – you just need somehow who’s motivated.

One of the first big content pieces that really caught my eye was an epic guide to linkbait created by Distilled. It’s a wealth of information, including original and curated content that clearly took a lot of effort. Here’s the kicker, though – this project was created during a two-week internship by Ed Fry, who was only 16 years old at the time. Obviously, it was a team effort, and I’m not trying to say that Ed is just your typical intern – he’s a bright guy with a bright future – but he’s not a seasoned industry veteran and he doesn’t have an office on Madison Avenue. What he had was the motivation to see a big project through, and Distilled was smart enough to tap into that passion. Sometimes, “big” is just about finding someone with the drive to follow through.

Now, It’s Your Turn

I hope I’ve convinced at least a few of you to stop thinking small. The truth is that, until you produce something big, you won’t really understand the benefits and the momentum that come out of it. I’m just now beginning to see how the Algo History has opened up all new areas for me and for the content I’ll create next. At the same time, I’ve got systems running daily collecting new data to build tomorrow’s content. My only regret is not investing in big ideas sooner, because the interest is compounding every day.

 


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Facebook's New Custom Audiences: What They Are and How You Can Use Them - Part 1

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 03:58 AM PDT

Posted by Justin_Vanning

If you're currently advertising on Facebook, you've probably heard the announcement about their new Custom Audience feature. The announcement was a pretty big deal and had most marketers salivating over the new targeting possibilities. 

In case you missed it, here's a brief overview of the Custom Audiences feature and tips on how you can use it to your advantage.  

What Are Facebook Custom Audiences?

Let's say you have a current email list of all of your existing customers. You've introduced a new product that you think would be valuable to those customers, and you'd love to be able to run Facebook ads that show only to those customers. Up to this point, you didn't have a way to do this.

Now, with Facebook Custom Audiences, you now can upload your customer email list (or a list of phone numbers or Facebook User ID's) for Facebook to hash the data against its users to find matches. Pretty cool, eh?

Odds are that if you have 1,000 customer emails, they won't all be currently on Facebook. However, many of your customers might have used the same email when they bought from you as they did when (if) they signed up for Facebook. You'll probably be surprised at how many people from your customer list have the same email that match back to their Facebook account. To test this new feature out, we uploaded some of our customer lists and were seeing anywhere from 50-70% match rates. Not too shabby.

The other beautiful thing about Custom Audiences is that not only do you have a new, custom audience that you've created from your own customer data, but you can layer on any of the other Facebook Advertising targeting options on top of it. For instance, let's say you upload the emails of your current customers and found 70% of them on Facebook. Now you have a Custom Audience of these folks. You can now say that you only want to run a Facebook ad to the people in this list who include the filters of living in Seattle and not liking your fan page yet. The options for targeted marketing are pretty limitless.

Some of you might have concerns about privacy. It's important to note that Facebook will hash (or encrypt) all of the email addresses, phone numbers, or Facebook user ID's that you upload before matching it to Facebook profiles. Here's Facebook's own explanation of this:

"Facebook calculates the hash of the email addresses and phone numbers that people have given us and stores these hashes with the corresponding person. When an advertiser imports their hashed audience list into power editor, we compare it with our hashes to find all the matching user IDs. If an advertiser imports a hashed email address that we don't have, it won't match anything. Facebook won't know the original email address or phone number because it was hashed before it was uploaded."

How Can I Use Custom Audiences?

I was pretty excited after reading the Custom Audiences announcement, and I started brainstorming the countless ways to use them. Here's what I've come up with so far:

  • Drive Facebook Likes: This one is pretty obvious. Now that you can mash your offline lists to Facebook profiles, you can easily set up a Custom Audience of your current customers or people who've signed up for one of your email lists (basically anyone who's had a brand impression with your company) and start serving them ads to try and get them to like your FB brand page. You'll want to make sure you select the option to only show ads to the people in this Custom Audience who don't already like your page. 
  • Drive Sales/Conversions: If you're a business that collects email addresses for lead gen purposes, why not upload those as a Custom Audience and then serve Facebook ads to that group? For example: if you sell products and know that your customers tend to buy product A before buying product B, upload the list of emails of all customers who've bought product A and then serve them ads promoting product B. Maybe you're a B2B business and 20% of your customers are in your mid-tier product plan. You can serve those customers ads trying to get them to upgrade to the next product tier. Maybe you're an online florist and Valentine's Day is approaching. Why not upload an email list of all your customers and then use Facebook targeting to focus on only the customers who are in relationships or married, and serve that group a Valentine's Day promotion? The possibilities are endless.
  • Drive Newsletter Signups: If your company has a newsletter that you send out on a regular basis and you can pull an email list of all customers who haven't signed up for the newsletter yet, upload that group as your Custom Audience. You can then serve ads promoting your newsletter to those customers. 

The potential targeting options with Custom Audiences is pretty vast, so I'm sure there are plenty of opportunities I missed. Now that we've discussed what the Custom Audiences are and some ways to use them, let's quickly talk about how to set them up.

How Do I Set Up Custom Audiences?

In order to use Facebook's Custom Audience feature, you'll have to use a 3rd party vendor  (SalesForce, AdParlor, Alchemy Social, GraphEffect, Kenshoo, Nanigans, Social Moov, and Optimal) or the Facebook Power Editor. Check out the link to learn about what the Power Editor is and how to download and start using it.

Once you have it downloaded, you'll want to click on the Custom Audiences tab on the top nav and then click "create audience".

A pop-up will load asking for you to upload your Custom Audience file. Make sure your file is in CSV or TXT format, name it, and then upload it to Facebook. 

 

Facebook will now mash your audience list with their user profiles to see how many match. Remember, the number of people in your original list will not match the number that Facebook returns for the Custom Audience size for two main reasons: some people will not be active users of Facebook, and some will not use the same email address or phone number that they gave your company as they do on their Facebook profile. 

Once the audience has finished uploading in Facebook, you can click it and then click "create ad using audience" to set up an ad or you can click the Custom Audience tab from the ad editor. 

What's Next?

The new Custom Audience feature is pretty exciting, and I'm launching some tests here at SEOmoz to see how it performs for us. We'll be testing 3 things to start:

  • Driving Facebook likes
  • Driving conversions (free trial signups)
  • Driving newsletter signups 

I'll collect data over the next couple of weeks and write a follow-up post to show how they performed for us. 

I'd also love to hear from you all to see what you think about this new Custom Audience feature. Are you currently using it, or do you plan on using it in the future? If so, how will you plan on using it? Add your thoughts in the comments section below and we'll continue the discussion. 

 


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Operation Educate the Educators

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Thursday, October 4, 2012
 
Operation Educate the Educators

Yesterday afternoon, Dr. Jill Biden spoke at a Joining Forces event held at George Mason University to celebrate the more than 100 colleges of education that have signed on to Operation Educate the Educators. The commitment will help prepare educators to lead classrooms and develop school cultures that are more responsive to the social, emotional, and academic needs of children in military families.

"As an educator and a military mom, today was personal to me," Dr. Biden said. "I know how much it means to a family when a teacher makes a special effort to support a military child in school."

Learn more about the celebration and Operation Educate the Educators.

Dr. Jill Biden and Chief of Staff of the Army General Ray Odierno laugh during a Joining Forces event celebrating the more than 100 colleges and universities that have signed on to “Operation Educate the Educators” at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., Oct. 3, 2012. (Official White House Photo by David Lienemann)

Dr. Jill Biden and Chief of Staff of the Army General Ray Odierno laugh during a Joining Forces event celebrating the more than 100 colleges and universities that have signed on to “Operation Educate the Educators” at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., Oct. 3, 2012. (Official White House Photo by David Lienemann)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

Launching the Equal Futures Partnership to Expand Women’s Political and Economic Participation
Closing the gender gap in women’s political and economic participation will help secure greater prosperity for everyone.

An International Approach to Military Mental Health
Rosye Cloud, Director of Policy for Veterans, Wounded Warriors, and Military Families, addresses the faulty perceptions surrounding military mental health, and explains how collaboration with our international partners will continue to strengthen the advancements we have already made.

Vice President Biden Marks Achievements of MRAP Task Force
The Vice President honors the Mine-Resistant Ambush-Protected vehicle (MRAP) Task Force—the men and women who helped accelerate the production and fielding of protective vehicles to our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, saving the lives of thousands of American service members.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

12:05 PM: The President delivers remarks at a campaign event

1:35 PM: The President departs Denver, Colorado

2:15 PM: The Vice President will deliver remarks at a campaign event

3:35 PM: The President arrives Madison, Wisconsin

4:40 PM: The President delivers remarks at a campaign event

6:05 PM: The President departs Madison, Wisconsin

7:55 PM: The President arrives Joint Base Andrews

8:05 PM: The President arrives the White House

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Seth's Blog : Do the (extra) work

Do the (extra) work

Do the extra work not because you have to but because it's a privilege.

Get in early.

Sweep the floor without being asked.

Especially when it's not your turn.

Not because you want credit or reward. Because you can.

The industrialist wants to suck everything out of you. Doing extra work as a cog in an industrial system is a fool's errand.

For the rest of us, the artist and the freelancer and the creator, we know that the privilege of doing the extra work is the work itself.

The habit of doing more than is necessary can only be earned through practice. And the habit is priceless.



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miercuri, 3 octombrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Romney Wins Debate #1 Hands Down; Style Over Substance; Tweedledum vs. Tweedledee

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 08:59 PM PDT

I watched the entire debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney tonight. As an independent voter, I have to say this was not even close.

Romney won the debate easily. He was confident, poised, respectful of Obama, and was willing to look at the president instead of the floor.

In contrast, president Obama kept looking down, kept shaking his head, and posture-wise seemed as if he was ashamed to be on the stage with Romney.

Style Over Substance

I still have to ask: Did either candidate really say anything we did not already know?

The answer is "not really". Obama kowtowed to unions and teachers. Romney kowtowed to the military. Did anyone expect otherwise?

We still do not know what differences there are, if any, between Obamacare and Romeneycare.

In terms of sound-bites, however, it was a blowout. Romney delivered, Obama didn't.

If you are an Obama supporter who sees it differently, then you are playing mind-over-matter political cheerleading.

In the pre-debate chatter Republicans stressed the debate would be about substance over style. It turns out there was no substance at all, rather a blowout of style over non-style.

Substance? What Substance?

We still do not know what budget cuts Romney will make. We just know that amazingly Romney will not cut Medicare.

Well, actually we do not know anything except that by some miraculous growth estimate, Romney pledges to not cut Medicare while raising military spending.

If you believe that, you may as well believe Obama's last pledge "Change You Can Believe In".

Bear in mind, president Obama never promised change. He only promised "change you can believe in".

People believed. Some still do. Some even believe Romney.

There Is No Choice

On the CNBC pre-debate show, Ron Paul said there is little difference between the two political parties.

Paul is of course correct. So is my friend Pater Tenebrarum who on September 28 stated There Is No Choice.
We have previously pointed out that there is actually no choice at all for the US electorate at the upcoming presidential election. This is because in terms of the policies they support, it is nigh impossible to differentiate between the two candidates. We were not just making an unsupported assertion – we offered proof, by showing a video in which they speak for themselves. If one cannot rely on their own words to represent what they stand for, what should one rely on?
Tweedledum vs. Tweedledee

Here is the video Pater referred to: Romney Obama the Same?



Bear in mind, I said the same thing as Pater on numerous occasions.


These kind of discussions tend to get me in hot water, but I really do not care. Play the video and see for yourself.

Two Great Pretenders

Tonight it was amusing to watch president Obama cite all of the things he agreed with Romney on, while watching Romney do a much better job at pretending there were big differences.

To be sure, there are some differences. Romney pledges to blow more money on military spending than Obama. Can he deliver? Probably not. At least let's hope not.

On the other side of the fence, it was sickening to watch Obama pledge to waste more money on education. However, it was even more sickening watching Romney pledge to do the same thing in a different way.

If Republicans really believed in smaller government, we would have it. How many years were they in control of both houses and the white house and fail to deliver?

Obama pledged to close Guantanamo and stop torture. Did He? In practice, is Obama much different than Dick Cheney?

Will The Debate Matter?

The only pertinent question is "will the debate matter?"

I rather doubt it. Neither Romney nor Obama really said anything of substance. In spite of a pathetic performance by the president, Romney did not deliver a knockout blow.

Unless minds change, and change dramatically (and I doubt they do) a stumbling performance by Obama will likely be good enough.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/


French Economy Implodes

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 03:55 PM PDT

As expected, at least in this corner, the French economy has started to implode. Service sector business activity is dropping at fastest rate since October 2011.

More importantly, the Markit Composite PMI sports the steepest rate of contraction since March 2009 with job losses accelerating at the fastest pace in 33 months and output plunging at the fastest rate in 42 months.
Key points:

Final Markit France Services Activity Index at 45.0 (49.2 in August), 11-month low.
Final Markit France Composite Output Index at 43.2 (48.0 in August), 42-month low.



Summary:

French service providers reported a steeper decrease in business activity during September. The latest fall in activity reflected a considerable drop in incoming new work. Companies adjusted staffing levels down accordingly, leading to an accelerated drop in employment. Input prices rose at a sharper rate but output charge discounting gathered pace, highlighting a deepening squeeze on companies' margins. Future expectations meanwhile dipped into negative territory for the first time since February 2009.

The seasonally adjusted final Markit France Services Business Activity Index – which is based on a single question asking respondents to report on the actual change in business activity at their companies compared with one month ago – posted 45.0 in September, down from 49.2 in August. The latest reading pointed to a marked rate of contraction in activity and the fifth decline in the past six months.
The seasonally adjusted final Markit France Composite Output Index – which measures the combined output of the manufacturing and service sectors – registered 43.2 in September, down from 48.0 in August. The latest reading was indicative of a substantial decline in activity and the steepest rate of contraction since March 2009.

Service sector activity declined in response to a further fall in new business during September. The rate of contraction in new work accelerated to the fastest in five months, with anecdotal evidence pointing to lacklustre demand conditions and clients delaying decisions on projects. Combined with a steeper decline in new orders in the manufacturing sector, overall new business across the French private sector fell at the steepest rate for 41 months.

Reduced workloads prompted French service providers to make further cutbacks to employment during September. The rate of job shedding accelerated to the sharpest for 33 months, with panellists indicating that staffing levels were lowered in response to declining activity and as part of cost-cutting efforts. Composite data signalled the sharpest reduction in employment since December 2009.
Right On Time

If that does not accurately describe implosion, what does? Looking for who or what to blame? Look no further than inane work rules and regulations made worse by the socialist government of president François Hollande.

On June 16, in "France Has At Most Three Months Before Markets Make Their Mark" I wrote ...
If socialists take control of both houses in French parliament as expected, president François Hollande would have free rein to carry out his stated policies such as hire more public workers, raise taxes on the rich, and Wreck France With Economically Insane Proposal: "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It"
Well, three months have passed and the French economy is clearly imploding and Hollande has not even fully followed up on his economically insane promise regarding layoffs, but he has pressured companies to not do so, and he has also massively raised taxes (a splendidly stupid thing to do in recession).

You reap what you sow, and the implosion of France is now underway. Odds of France making its budget projections are in my estimation close to zero, but time will tell.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/


IMF Ready to Plunder Spain; IMF's Latest Trojan Horse Offer; English-to-English Translations

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 10:34 AM PDT

IMF chief Christine Lagarde says IMF ready to help Spain.
The International Monetary Fund stands ready to help Spain in multiple ways if Madrid seeks its aid, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said in a newspaper interview published on Wednesday.

"If Spain wants it, we could help in diverse ways, for example by simply auditing and monitoring reforms negotiated with its European partners without the IMF participating in financing," Lagarde told French daily Le Figaro.

"But we could also play a role in financing," she added.
Reflections on Translations

I frequently translate articles from Spanish, German, Italian and other languages. However, the biggest syntactical changes occur in seldom-offered elsewhere, yet, badly-needed English-to-English translations.

As a public service announcement, the Mish translation of the above statements by Lagarde is the same as the title of this post "IMF Ready to Plunder Spain".

IMF Trojan Horse

Any time the IMF offers money or help, it is an offer best refused. I have written about this before and offer this 2010 flashback To Ireland With Love



Mentally cross out "Ireland" and write in "Spain".

The IMF was not out to "help" Ireland. Rather the IMF was out to plunder Ireland for the benefit of banks in the UK, Germany, and France. The same Trojan Horse setup applies today.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/


Another Good Services ISM; Outlier or Strengthening Economy?

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 09:09 AM PDT

For the second consecutive month the Non-Manufacturing ISM surprised to the upside.

In September, the NMI™ registered 55.1 percent, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 33rd consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

IndexSeptAugPercentage Point ChangeDirectionRate of ChangeTrend in Months
NMI™/PMI™55.153.71.4GrowingFaster33
Business Activity/Production59.955.64.3GrowingFaster38
New Orders57.753.74GrowingFaster38
Employment51.153.8-2.7GrowingSlower2
Supplier Deliveries51.551.50SlowingSame2
Inventories48.552.5-4ContractingFrom Growing1
Prices68.164.33.8IncreasingFaster3
Backlog of Orders4850.5-2.5ContractingFrom Growing1
New Export Orders50.552-1.5GrowingSlower3
Imports5049.50.5UnchangedFrom Contracting1
Inventory Sentiment6567-2Too HighSlower184


Last month I was asked if the services ISM changed my view of recession. I wanted to see the jobs report first. The household survey had horrendous results for the second month.

Household Survey

  • In September the number of people employed fell by 119,000.
  • In the last two months, the number of people employed fell by 314,000!
  • In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,695,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 971,000.
  • In September Civilian Labor Force fell by 368,000.
  • In September those "not" in the labor force increased by 581,000 to a record 88.921 million
  • In August, those "not" in the labor force increased by 348,000 to 88,340,000 a record at the time

Thus in the last two months those "not" in the labor force increased by 929,000.  This is not demographics!

Since then data has been generally poor, but mixed. Home prices give further indication of a bottoming process. Yet, Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transportation "Unexpectedly" Drop, Down Third Month, July Revised Lower

Moreover, US CEOs Sharply Reduce Expectations for Economic Outlook, Hiring; Third Largest Plunge in 6-Month Expectations in History.

Curiously, even with this strong services ISM, employment is weakening although still positive.

All in all, it is the ISM numbers that seem out of sync with most of the rest of the data, especially household survey numbers.

Once again, let's see what Friday brings, but this time, one solid month will not convince me in light of other weakening data.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

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