People Believe What They Want to Believe Conventional wisdom says late deciders break against the incumbent.
I said otherwise. I based my 90% likelihood of an Obama win on the notion that late deciders break in an unknown manner but in a big way. When the surge in support for Romney ended following the first debate, it was clear, at least in my mind, that the next momentum change, regardless of which way, was going to seal the fate.
The initial move was towards Obama and hurricane Sandy sealed the fate. Obama not only carried Ohio but Virginia as well, just as I stated.
On Monday, with Nate Silver's
Five Thirty Eight Political Calculus Blog for the
New York Times suggesting an 84% percent likelihood of an Obama victory I wrote 90%
Chance of Obama Win.
I upped my forecast on the basis of momentum (Nate upped his forecast to 92% on Tuesday morning, also based on momentum).
However, I received countless emails from people telling me to stick to economics because there was no way Obama would win Virginia. I heard from others telling me how biased the polls in favor of Obama were.
I also received many taunts that my election forecasting sucks (in spite of calling 49 of 50 states correctly in the last election before Obama was even nominated! Anyone else do that?)
Well it was not my analysis that sucked, it was the clear bias of Romney supports and Rasmussen that sucked.
As I said, "people believe what they want to believe".
Far Right Costs Romney the Election Even with that massive win in the first debate, Romney could not pull it off. There are many reasons: Flip-flopping, inane Chrysler ads, abortion issues by other Republican candidates, war-mongering, and military spending. Hurricane Sandy may have been the final straw.
Regardless of Sandy, much of the country is sick of war, sick of military spending, sick of idiots who proclaim rape to be God's work. It is actually conceivable that enough moderates in swing states made last minute decisions based on women's right issues rather than hurricane Sandy.
The fact of the matter is Romney dug himself so deep a hole kowtowing to the religious-wrong and war-mongers that even a stunning victory in the first debate coupled with a weak economy and huge unemployment could not carry the day.
Mitt Romney, Rush Limbaugh Are the Past Romney is the past. So is Rush Limbaugh, so are all the extremists and so are all of the warmongers hell-bent on starting WWIII or a war with Iran.
I could not and would not vote for Romney. I would not have voted for Romney had I lived in Ohio or Virginia either. Nor would I have voted for Obama, but other independents clearly did.
I voted for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and I am proud of my vote. Can those voting for the lesser of two evils say the same thing?
I hope the Republican party learned a lesson tonight because as long as Republicans cling to the past, and kowtow to the extreme right they will continue to lose elections.
Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and others are the future of the Republican party. Are they listening? I sure hope so because another 4 years of Obama followed by 8 years of an Obama-clone is certainly not the right answer.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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