marți, 27 noiembrie 2012

The Importance of Marketing Analytics

The Importance of Marketing Analytics


The Importance of Marketing Analytics

Posted: 26 Nov 2012 06:47 PM PST

Posted by JoannaLord

Analytics is one of those words: it gets used correctly for the most part, but often gets used as a catchall. As marketers, we understand the importance of having web analytics set up, of having an analyst on staff, and of constantly working with the data as a part of our daily practice. We spend a significant amount of time focused on site metrics and web analytics reports. We have a great sense of how our sites are performing technically, and how that backs out to money made.

But what if web analytics aren't enough?

Over the last few months, we’ve seen the rise of an equally important piece to the puzzle — marketing analytics — and I'd like to take some time and to explain what it is and how it can help all of us be more effective marketers.

definition of marketing analytics

So, what is Marketing Analytics?

Marketing analytics is the measurement and optimization of your marketing activities. Rather than focusing only on your site’s performance like you do with web analytics, you focus on how your marketing efforts are performing, and adjust them accordingly. Marketing analytics goes beyond on-site indicators and leans on other tools, offsite metrics, and even offline efforts. It takes a whole-picture approach to the measurement of your marketing.

The concept seems simple — and somewhat assumed — but many marketers spend hours in web analytics tools like Google Analytics and Omniture, looking at the outcome of their efforts as it relates to site performance, but don't go any further than that.

But what about analyzing the way you executed that campaign? What about the time of day you did things, or the vehicles you used? What about the conversations offsite, and the engagement in real life that resulted from those efforts? Marketing analytics is the act of looking past mere website results, and asking yourself, "How did that marketing campaign really go?"

marketing sweet spot

Marketing analytics helps us see how everything plays off each other, and decide how we might want to invest moving forward. Re-prioritizing how you spend your time, how you build out your team, and the resources you invest in channels and efforts are critical steps to achieving marketing team success.

How do I get started with Marketing Analytics?

Like many new approaches to analytics, there is a learning curve. There will need to be some up-front explanation and defining. We wanted to break down the parts of marketing analytics and leave you with some kick-off questions to get started with. 

1. How are your marketing activities performing?

This is the piece that most marketers have down pat. This is all about how are you performing right now. How are your current efforts paying off? If you focus solely on web analytics, you may find yourself focusing too narrowly on your site's results. With marketing analytics, you'll take a wide angle view.

Rather than simply reporting your visitor counts, time on site, and conversions, what about reporting more? What about the results that happened offsite? What about the less traditional KPI-driven results like conversations, comments, and shares? In addition to reporting more metrics, we should also be reporting them in a way that speaks to the entire team and the company at large. If you want to change how your company invests their marketing resources, you need to make a strong case for analyzing what is happening beyond your site, and to go beyond cookie cutter KPIs and report formats.

Here are a few examples of common web analytics performance KPIs (on the left) and then a contrasting list of marketing analytics KPIs (on the right). You can see how the list doesn't just grow in size, but requires us to use many tools, compile our own reports, and work to tell a story with the data.

web vs marketing

Marketing analytics goes beyond traditional website KPIs. We find more of the metrics we care about tend to be people-centered: how are we doing our best job for both current visitors/customers and for future ones? How are our fans, friends, and followers engaging with us? Who's talking about our brand on other sites? We track metrics that help us use our time in the most valuable way possible, and we work to know exactly how our marketing activities are doing for us.

2. Where are your competitors investing time and resources?

Competitive analysis, you so funny. It's one of those things that all marketers know is important, but so many of us fail to carve out dedicated time for it. Marketing analytics assumes that competitive research is an ongoing, fluid effort. It shouldn't be something we do at the beginning of a project or when we take on a new client. It should be a constant metric we are aware of — and one we know as well as we do our own.

In addition to performance, we need to be aware of where they are putting their time. What are they testing? What are they investing in? This requires we jump out of our software and tools and become observers. Are they engaging more on certain networks? Are they pushing more money into content marketing? Are they investing heavily into channels that you may or may not be in? 

This competitive layer adds color to your performance research. Now you know where you stand, where they stand, and you have a better sense of where things are going. This helps you invest in the right efforts, and possibly pull back from others.
 

3. How do your marketing activities perform in the long-term?

We understand the importance of knowing if we have improved week over week, and month over month, but too often we stop at that. There are so many other things to be watching closely when tracking success. How about the momentum of those gains and losses? What about the long-term quality of those gains and losses? How do those short-term wins turn into loyalty and ongoing engagement? Marketing analytics focuses more on the overall performance of our efforts, and the many ways we can single them out to improve them.

Imagine planning your marketing roadmap around yesterday's results only, or your site's performance only. Scary, huh? We agree. Now imagine planning a marketing roadmap around how each channel has done over time, and how your specific efforts returned across all the objectives you care about (money, engagement, loyalty, etc.) — that sounds way better. If you take the time up front to map that movement out, you will make more holistic decisions about where to invest your energy.

Here are some great additional questions to ask when working to understand how your activities are returning:

marketing analytics questions

 

4. How does your marketing analytics data inform your next decision?

We all understand the premise that we need to invest where things are returning well. This is most commonly applied in performance marketing, but all of our marketing efforts demand the same closing of the loop. Marketing analytics can help us close the loop as it relates to our marketing efforts and investments. Instead of assuming some channels always work — or that some channels are never going to work — you should be testing where and how you spend your time, and prioritizing next quarter’s investments accordingly.

This is most easily applied when it comes to staffing and budget spend, but what about time spent on researching new tools, new processes, creating new tests, and designs? Are you giving your time to the right channels? Marketing analytics helps us get to the bottom of that, and because of it you can make your next move a fully informed one.

Common mistakes with Marketing Analytics

There are quite a few common challenges people face when trying to invest in marketing analytics. Here are a few we've found, and tips on how to avoid them.

mistake icon

Set it and forget it dilemma: We've all done it. You hear about this new cool analytics tool. You set it up and start collecting data, but you never quite circle back to see how things are going and what it's telling you. Or, worse yet, we receive weekly reports sent to us but we fail to interpret the data for valuable insights. It's the "set it and forget it" dilemma. Marketing analytics expects more. To do it well, you need to be testing both new channels and new tools to track their success — then set aside time to dive into the data. A key piece to successful marketing analytics is to be proactive and constantly pushing the limits on the process behind your decisions. It takes time. Marketers are strapped for time, but this is time well spent.

mistake icon

Thinking it’s a CMO's job: A common misconception around deciding how to grow a marketing program is to think it's solely the CMO's job to do so. Instead, we should look at it as every marketer's responsibility to know how their efforts are returning and what to do next. This should back out to a roadmap for your channel or job responsibilities. If you leave it to the top of the organization, you often get a very disconnected roadmap. It should be a joint conversation.
 
mistake icon

Failing to evangelize the wins and losses: One of the most common mistakes we fast-moving, highly caffeinated marketers make is failing to evangelize the results of our efforts. To make marketing analytics part of your team's culture and place it in the forefront of your company's mind, you need to be sharing how things are going on a regular basis. Rather than tell them you "use inbound marketing to attract community members," you can talk about the specific campaigns, content pieces, and efforts. Show them which ones are working, and which ones need work. Ask for ideas and feedback. By getting them involved, they will be more invested in seeing it succeed.
 

In conclusion: you need both

While we think marketing analytics is critical for a successful marketing program, we aren’t saying it should replace your web analytics. Quite the opposite, actually. We think it’s the combination of the two that set a team up to succeed. If you spend time analyzing both your site’s performance and your efforts' performance you will have the full picture: What is working? What needs help? What demands a pivot?

We’ve already seen more tools and resources pop up to help marketers really understand how their efforts are affecting the full picture. I think the next year will bring even more into the space. Many marketers are already looking at the big view marketing analytics provides today, albeit without dedicated tools that provide all of this functionality. For most marketers, the task is a manual one that requires multiple tools to get the full view — but it's worth it. As marketing teams continue to grow in size, and marketers wear more and more hats, we think more people will demand mature tools that make it easy to document a game plan. Rather that navigate that landscape based solely on conversions or other secondary metrics, there will be a demand for a more holistic approach to help us understand how we are doing, and where we should be doing more. 

I’m excited to see marketing analytics continue to evolve, and to see how tools develop to make it a smoother, more repeatable process — and I'm super excited to see how that can help us all be more efficient, successful marketers. I’d love to hear how you are applying this form of analysis, and what tools you use to help dictate where to invest your time and resources. Please leave comments and thoughts below!


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Link Building for the Little Guys

Posted: 26 Nov 2012 04:26 AM PST

Posted by Matthew Barby

As part of a small business, I always find it very frustrating when I read articles about the ‘best ways to build links to your website’. The same things seem to appear each time: create an infographic, get a video to go viral, write an ebook that people can download, produce some white papers, etc. Now, I’m not saying that these methods don’t work, because they are completely legitimate ways of building links. What I get frustrated about is that if you are a business with very low influence and you create this type of new, unique content, it can be quite a struggle to get it in front of those you wish to see it. With this in mind, I thought I would share the methods that I have found to be most effective for all us ‘little guys’.

Mini Me
[image credit: www.telegraph.co.uk]

Forget Link-Building, Think Relationship-Building

After spending a lot of time trying a whole host of different techniques to build that ‘perfect link’, one thing that started to dawn on me was that even if I were to create the greatest bit of content that anyone has ever seen, if I didn’t have a way of getting it in front of people then it would be useless. On top of this, it is very rare that you will be able to continually create the greatest bit of content that anyone has ever seen. The solution? Focus on building relationships with more influential users within social networks.

As part of my day, I dedicate at least an hour to trawling through content from within the search industry, commenting on articles that I like through the likes of Google+, Twitter, etc, and following new users that share interesting content that isn’t just self-promotion. Alongside this I make sure that I keep all of my RSS feeds organised within Google Reader. This allows me to see when new articles that might interest me are published, without having to take too much time out of my schedule. This kind of basic organisation can not only save you a lot of time, but it will help to give your social following some new, interesting content on a regular basis. One of the best articles that I have read this year was from Pak Hou Cheung and it described how to leverage Google reader for guest post opportunities and blogger outreach. Give it a read and I guarantee it will improve your daily productivity two-fold.

Make the Right Relationships

The next hurdle I found was that, actually, it’s not always that easy to become best buddies with the likes of Rand Fishkin, Will Critchlow and AJ Kohn, just by sharing their blog on Google+ and telling them what you liked about it! When looking to build relationships, it is important to build them with the right people at the right time. What I mean by this is that if you are yet to really make your mark in the industry with your content, then it would be a much more effective use of your time to build relationships with those who would gain a mutual benefit from it.

Whenever I create content I always ask the question: why would anyone benefit from sharing it? If the answer is that they probably wouldn’t gain anything, then you need to re-think the content that you are producing. Start off small; build relationships with bloggers that have relatively low influence, but build much more of them. Look for blogs with less activity on them, where the bloggers are in a similar situation to you and would be really happy if you shared their content or linked back to it. I’m not saying that Rand, Will and AJ wouldn’t be really happy if I shared their content, but I don’t think they’d struggle if I didn’t.

So Why Would Anyone Benefit From Sharing My Content?

One of the most effective ways of encouraging people to share your content is by promoting their content and adding value to it. One very simple method we use at Wow Internet is to create a weekly ‘Search Engine News Roundup’. This involves taking 5 articles that we found particularly useful from within the search industry and giving them a short write up, with a link back to each of the respective blogs. We always try to make sure that we source articles from different authors every week and find articles that aren’t exclusively from hugely popular blogs. Once we have done this, I contact each of the authors through Google+, mention them in a tweet about our blog and send them an email (if I have the author’s email address, which is usually available on their blog).

Matthew Barby Google Plus Post

Another little trick that we use is placing a custom Tweet button next to the link of each article that we have featured in the ‘Search Engine News Roundup’. The custom Tweet button includes a link to the featured blog, a brief message about the article, the original author’s Twitter handle and the Wow Internet Twitter handle (so that the author knows it has been shared from our blog). Below is an example Tweet that comes from the button:

“Great blog from @justincutroni talking about the Next Generation of Google Analytics - http://cutroni.com/blog/2012/10/29/universal-analytics-the-next-generation-of-google-analytics/ via @wow_internet”

You may notice that there is no link back to our blog here. The reason for this is that the whole focus is around promoting the content of others, in order to build relationships and give the author a reason to want to subsequently share our content. This will help drive social signals to the featured article, which will give the author another answer to ‘Why it would benefit me to share their content?’

Matthew Barby Email

The key message that I am trying to get across is that you need to add value to the content that you are sharing. By doing this we are able to reach a wider audience with our content, which can increase the social signals going back to our site and could also persuade people to bookmark our blog, in order to view our future content. This is the most valuable thing for me, because it means that any content that I produce in the future will have a greater level of exposure.

Another very effective way of getting more worth out of the links built to your website is by boosting the authority of webpages that link to you. This is a tactic that I’m sure many of you use on a regular basis. If I am linking to someone else’s content it would make sense for them to think about linking back to me in order to boost the power of the link that I have given them. Through linking to others’ material it will increase the likelihood that they will then share your content in order to boost the power of the link they have received, which works brilliant for both parties involved.

A True Story

Around a couple of months ago Larry Kim posted a fantastic blog on SEOmoz, which showcased his company’s (WordStream) keyword analysis software. Within the blog, Larry offered a free one-year trial of the software to anyone that dropped him an email requesting it. Being a lover of bargains and on the lookout for new tools that can benefit our client’s SEO performance, I took Larry up on the offer. When I got a message back from Larry himself arranging for an activation key to be sent over, I suddenly had a brain-wave…

Larry’s objective for his blog is clear: he wanted to get more people from within the SEO industry signed up to use his product and generate awareness for the brand in general. The question I then asked was, how can I add value to what Larry is trying to achieve, in a way that would also benefit my own objectives?

I started using the keyword analysis suite from WordStream and really liked it. It dramatically improved the way in which we could carry out keyword analysis for our clients and gave us an extra resource to utilise. After using the software I made it a priority to share my positive experience with my followers, and what better way to do this than to blog about it? In order to get Larry’s attention I knew that I needed to add value to what he was trying to achieve, in a way that would appeal to his target audience. So I decided to write an article titled ‘Improving Your Keyword Analysis With WordStream’. In the article I discussed the features I like most and how they can be used specifically to improve the keyword analysis process of any given SEO campaign. I made sure that I linked back to Larry and added in a few particularly ‘quotable’ lines (I will explain this shortly).

My next step was to get in touch with Larry. I dropped him an email to tell him about the blog and how much I enjoyed the keyword research suite. I then asked if he would be kind enough to share the article with his social following. Then I fired it across to all of my social following, making sure to tag Larry in the posts. Shortly after I received this email back from Larry:

Hi Matt,

Thanks for writing this up.

I’ve tweeted it, submitted to inbound.org: http://inbound.org/seo/2012/09/improving-your-keyword-analysis-with-wordstream-wow-internet-blog/

and shared on my facebook and google+ page.

I’ve asked the people who do our company social stuff to share as well.

Thanks again!
Larry

Before I wrote the blog I had checked out the WordStream website to see if there would be any kind of opportunity for me to get something more solid than just the article shared by Larry. What I found was a testimonials page that was populated by only a handful of companies, including the likes of Search Engine Land. I spotted this as a potential link target for the Wow Internet website. This is where the quotable part of the blog came in handy!

I replied to Larry’s email to let him know that I would be more than happy for him to use any part of the blog as a review for his product, which could be displayed on his website. It turned out that I was in luck, because he was more than happy to do it. In fact, when you think about it this was incredibly beneficial for both of us; I get a link from a high authority page back to our domain and Larry gets a credible review of his product, from a company within the industry he is trying to target.

Not only did Larry link to our homepage, but he also linked to a couple of our inside pages with some very good anchor text indeed. Thanks again Larry! You can see it for yourself here:

http://www.wordstream.com/reviews

The moral of the story here is to understand exactly how you can bring value to the people that you reach out to. Only once you have understood how you can benefit them, should you even consider how they can benefit you.

Final Tip: Keep At It.

The last bit of advice I would give is to simply keep at it. This kind of link building can be very frustrating, as I’m sure you have realised, but hopefully these kinds of small success stories will inspire all you little guys out there to keep trying!

I hope this has been helpful to some of you out there and I would love to hear any of you feedback (both negative and positive, but please be nice!). Oh, and sharing this to your social following would be a great help ;-)


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Increasing Taxes on Middle-Class Families Will Hurt Consumer Spending

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
 
Increasing Taxes on Middle-Class Families Will Hurt Consumer Spending

As we move into the holiday shopping season, the National Economic Council and the Council of Economic Advisers just released a new report, The Middle-Class Tax Cuts’ Impact on Consumer Spending and Retailers.

If Congress doesn't act, middle-class families will see their income taxes go up on January 1st. The typical middle-class family will see their taxes go up by $2,200 next year, burdening businesses and retailers across the nation. 

Find out more about the report on middle-class tax cuts and retail and consumer spending.

Increasing Taxes on Middle-Class Families Will Hurt Consumer Spending

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White House Announces Judges for Equal Futures App Challenge
The new Equal Futures Partnership launched an app challenge earlier this year to create an app that promotes civic education and/or inspires girls to serve as leaders in our democracy. We are pleased to announce the leaders that have signed on to act as judges.

Open Today: Summer 2013 White House Internship Program Application
White House Interns begin the Internship Program with a passion for public service, and during their time at the White House, they find ways to couple that passion with new skills so that they’re better equipped to serve after their internships are done.

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10:30 AM: The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

12:30 PM: The President and The Vice President meet for lunch

12:30 PM: Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

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Seth's Blog : Broken events

 

Broken events

People who don't want to listen, being forced to sit through speeches that the speakers don't want to give.

If that sounds like a graduation or gala or corporate event you recently attended, I feel your pain.

If someone starts by telling a joke that they know is lame or starts going through all the tribulations they had finding something to say, if the audience is checking the time or secretly tweeting, then the event itself is broken. The speaker who discharges an obligation is not a speaker you are hoping to hear. 

Maybe obligatory speeches used to have a point, maybe they used to serve a vital function, but they no longer do.

Here's a thought: Let the students run their own graduation. Cancel any speeches that could easily be delivered instead via an interactive website. Put the credits and the thank yous into a beautiful document that you hand to everyone and switch the entire dynamic to:

People who thrilled to be listening to people who are excited to be speaking.

Why not?



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luni, 26 noiembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Reflections on Meaning of "Last Minute"; The Most Productive Workers on the Planet

Posted: 26 Nov 2012 10:31 PM PST

Progress on the alleged fiscal cliff has been non-existent. Obama wants tax hikes on the wealthy, Republicans want to close loopholes.

With little possibility of a breakthrough on the fiscal cliff until the "last minute", inquiring minds are likely wondering what the term "last minute" precisely means.

I can help.

Please consider the Wall Street Journal article Obama Calls Boehner, Reid on 'Fiscal Cliff'.
President Barack Obama called House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid over the weekend to discuss the fiscal cliff, as staff-level negotiations have moved slowly and produced no visible signs of progress on how to avoid the tax increases and spending cuts due take effect in January.

A broader group of negotiators that includes Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi of California, had been expected to reconvene this week, but that is now unlikely.

With each passing day, the government moves closer to the fiscal cliff, the combination of $500 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that begin in January and that economists have said could tip the country back into a recession.

One veteran Democratic aide said he wasn't surprised major concessions hadn't been made, given that real deal making usually happens at the last minute, which he put at "two weeks away."
Expect Definition to Change

Two weeks away would be December 10, which I suggest is far too early to be considered "last minute".

As supporting evidence, I present the online Congressional Calendar for December.



Green is Senate in Session. Orange is House in Session. The green hashed bars are TBD "to be determined".

Note the Congressional calendar does not include Saturday or Sunday.

Schedule Not Finalized

Out of curiosity, I called the office of the House majority leader Eric Cantor and was told the Congressional schedule for December will not be finalized until Friday, November 30.

Thus, we will not know the semi-final definition of "last minute" until then, but right now the preliminary estimate is no sooner than Friday, December 14.

Bear in mind, should December 14 (or whatever day Congress adjourns for the year) come and go without a Fiscal Cliff deal, assume that "last minute" will be redefined to mid-January 2013 when leaders of both parties will be anxious to roll back some of the tax hikes, referring to the rollbacks as "tax cuts".

Reflections on Our Hard-Working Congressional Representatives

While waiting for the final definition of "last minute", inquiring minds just might want to take a look at other months in the Congressional Calendar to see how frequently our representatives are at work for us.

Here are some sample months to consider.



Shock and Awe

Some people are probably shocked by this. I was not only shocked by appalled.

Indeed, my very first reaction was "My God! Look at how horrendously overworked our representatives are!"

No doubt, many of you had the exact same initial reaction.

That strenuous schedule coupled with hard work explains many things, such as why we have 73,608 pages of tax code piling up month after month year after year.



click on chart for sharper image

US Congress: The Most Productive Workers on the Planet

The results speak for themselves: US Congress collectively has the most productive workers on the planet.

These horribly-overworked souls are so dedicated to churning out mind-numbing pages of legislation that any clear-thinking individual should be able to quickly spot the need to reduce the number of hours Congress is in session.

Thus, I propose Congress be in session no more than three days per month.  Should that fail to dramatically reduce total the number of pages of Congressional bills, I further propose limiting Congressional sessions to alternating months.

If this sounds backwards, you just are not thinking clearly.

Everyone knows nothing gets done until the "last minute" anyway, and this clever proposal will massively increase the percentage of time worked at the "last minute" while also reducing the sheer volume of pages of legislation produced, hopefully to a readable number. 

Perhaps Congress would even find the time to read the bills they sponsor.

So please call your representatives and tell them you support "Mish's Proposal to Reduce Congressional Sessions" but only after they reduce the number of pages in the tax code to 15.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish
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Market Yawns as Greek Debt Deal Finalized; Deal? What Deal? Why Does it Even Matter?

Posted: 26 Nov 2012 06:44 PM PST

At long last Euro zone, IMF agree on Greece debt deal.
Euro-zone finance ministers, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund reached a deal early Tuesday in Brussels that is expected to see them release more financial aid to Greece.

The euro-zone finance ministers, known collectively as the Eurogroup, said in a statement that a worse macroeconomic situation and delays in implementing assistance have resulted in a weaker outlook for Greek government finances.

The Eurogroup members said that the "necessary elements are now in place" for member states to approve a European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) disbursement to Greece of 43.7 billion euros ($56.8 billion), with the formal go-ahead expected by Dec. 13.

Greece's debt targets were also tweaked, with government debt now targeted to fall to 124% of gross domestic product by 2020, and to substantially less than 110% of GDP by 2022.

Eurogroup members said in a statement they are prepared to consider various measures to support Greece, including:

  • Lowering interest rates on the Greek Loan Facility by 100 basis points
  • Cutting guarantee costs for Greece's EFSF loans by 10 basis points
  • Possibly deferring interest payments on EFSF loans by 10 years.

The Eurogroup said that the measures will not affect the creditworthiness of the EFSF, the euro bloc's bailout fund.
Deal? What Deal?

How the hell can there be a deal when the news clearly states the Eurogroup is prepared to consider various measures?

What kind of deal is that?

Why Does it Even Matter?

Let's assume for the moment that all of what the EU has considered actually happens. You still have to be nuts to think this makes the situation stable.

Supposedly "government debt is now targeted to fall to 124% of gross domestic product by 2020". This will be just another missed target in a long series of missed targets, not that 124% is remotely sustainable in the first place.

Yawn



The market seems to have had enough of these games. The euro barely moved on the non-news.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


Cameron's Foolish Bluster; Monti Asks Cameron for Up-or-Down Vote on UK Membership in EU

Posted: 26 Nov 2012 05:34 PM PST

I frequently disagree with Financial Times writer Wolfgang  Münchau, especially on keeping the eurozone and EU intact.

Today, I largely agree (but sometimes for opposite reasons) with Münchau's take in Britain's bluster serves the eurozone well.

Münchau: The singular importance of the budget negotiations, and of British prime minister David Cameron's insistence on an EU budget freeze, lies in what they reveal about the future of the EU itself. A frozen budget means that the EU is stuck with what it does. Forget the Agenda 2020, or any other pretence at growth-enhancing policies.

What the fraught budget negotiations tell us is that the process of European integration – at the level of the EU – is largely completed. In that sense it matters little whether the UK, for example, stays inside or not. In formally leaving the EU, there would be no need for the UK to give up on any existing rights, including the right to take up work and residence in the EU and, of course access to the single market – whatever that is worth. The terms of a withdrawal from the EU are freely negotiable. Even now, it does not feel that different, apart from the temperature, whether you are in Britain inside the EU, or in Norway outside the EU.

Mish: From the point of view of the EU, Münchau is largely correct. The EU can blunder along in its creation of an economic nannyzone with or without the UK, but not with or without Germany.

However, from the point of view of the UK, it would be better for the the UK to leave. The UK does not need inane EU agricultural subsidies, inane financial regulations, inane work rules, or this endless bickering over rules and budgets that the EU nannyzone requires of member states. 

Münchau: Today's EU has two important functions left. Some readers may find my list shockingly short. The first is that it provides the institutions and legal framework for the eurozone to muddle through to a solution of its crisis. I am not saying that the eurozone will necessarily achieve that goal. There is a non-trivial probability that it will not.

The banking union could be a first step towards a single market for finance at eurozone level. Ultimately, I would also expect a single market for labour and for services, all at eurozone level. If there is a fiscal union, its budget will end up not only bigger than the EU's, but also different in composition – to fulfil the purpose of macroeconomic stabilisation.

Mish: I advise betting on the "non-trivial probability" things do not work out as Münchau sees. Ironically, the more "success" the EU has on achieving one-size fits none "nannyrules" for everything under the sun, the lower the overall growth in the region because the bureaucracy, financial taxes, agricultural rules, etc., are generally headed in the wrong direction.

Münchau:The EU's second important function is to serve as a waiting room for member states who are not yet in the eurozone, but are willing to enter it at some point in the future.

In the end, it does not matter whether the outs leave the EU formally, linger compliantly on the fringes or whether the eurozone leaves them. A messy divorce of some sort will take place, at some point, possibly still quite a few years away. It could take numerous forms. A formal separation is only one of several possibilities. But it is not sustainable for a group of permanent outsiders to enjoy permanent co-decision rights, even though the EU is endlessly patient when it comes to accepting transitional arrangements. The reality is that there is no sustainable biosphere that is outside the eurozone, but inside the EU.

Mish: There is a big difference between the UK sitting on the fence and the Czech Republic, Denmark, or Sweden sitting on the fence. The difference is the UK's size and ability to make waves.

However, let's assume Münchau is correct, that "there is no sustainable biosphere that is outside the eurozone, but inside the EU".

Given there is very little chance of the UK joining the eurozone, the sooner the UK leaves the EU, the better. Since that is what Münchau implies (assuming he agrees the UK will not join the eurozone), we are largely in agreement.

Münchau: By insisting on an EU budget freeze, Mr Cameron is ultimately doing the eurozone a favour. By undermining the EU, he provides further incentives for the eurozone to grasp its collective interest. I support him.

Mish: Not quite. Cameron sits like a wimp on a fence unable to do what needs to be done, nor will he even put the matter to a vote.

Monti Presses Cameron for EU Referendum

Most likely to the shock and horror of the bulk of nannycrats, Monti presses Cameron for EU referendum.
Italy's prime minister has publicly urged David Cameron to call a decisive referendum on "the fundamental question" of whether Britain should remain in the EU.

In comments that will complicate the British prime minister's efforts to fend off Eurosceptic demands for an "in-out" vote, Mario Monti argued that an unambiguous plebiscite was the best way to address "the British problem" and prevent an exit.

He added: "Above all, one day Britain must – I spoke with David Cameron about this last week – Britain must ask their electorate, not whether they agree or disagree on the latest change . . . but pose the fundamental question: do you want to remain in the European Union?"

Opinion polls suggest a majority of Britons want to leave the EU. A ComRes survey for the Independent newspaper, released on Tuesday, showed 54 per cent wanted Britain to exit and maintain close trading links.

While Mr Cameron has indicated he favours a referendum on a new "settlement" between Britain and an increasingly integrated eurozone, he makes it clear he wants the UK to retain its membership. He has refused to yield to pressure from his own Conservative party to hold an in-out vote.

The prospect of reopening Tory splits on Europe haunts Mr Cameron; the two previous Conservative premiers – Margaret Thatcher and John Major – were both brought down by party infighting over Europe.

Michael Fabricant, a Conservative vice-chairman, on Monday called on Mr Cameron to offer a referendum non-aggression pact at the next election with the Eurosceptic UK Independence party. He warned the Conservatives could otherwise lose 20-40 seats.

But Mr Cameron rejected the idea, saying there would be "no pacts" with Ukip, which secured its best-ever parliamentary by-election result last week. Nigel Farage, Ukip leader, said he could not do a deal with the Tories while Mr Cameron was in post.

Meanwhile, Mr Cameron said on Monday that a deal on the EU's long-term budget was "still doable" in spite of a breakdown of talks in Brussels last Friday. Britain sided with other EU paymasters – including Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands and Finland – in calling for cuts to proposed spending.

Wimping Along


Cameron has not yet figured out there will only be positive ramifications to jettisoning the nannycrats instead of attempting to influence them.

Compromise is silly with so many major differences including the overall budget, financial transaction taxes, agricultural subsidies, tariffs in general, and work rules.

Here is the problem as I stated in Pin the Tail on the Scapegoat.
Losing by Winning

Cameron raised the EU's bluff and Merkel promptly folded.

The problem is the UK would be far better off by having a straight up or down vote on the EU by British citizens (which I am sure would be rejected), and sadly that outcome was avoided.

Instead, Cameron has decided to plod along instead of doing what needs to be done: having a national referendum on UK membership in the EU.
Cameron's Self-Serving Policies

Cameron will not do what polls suggest or even what his own party wants. Why? Like most politicians, Cameron is acting in his own self-interests hoping to offend the fewest number of people.

The risk is Labor wins the next election anyway, making an exit impossible.

Worse yet, the next prime minister could conceivably sell the UK down the river by agreeing to implement financial transaction taxes and imposing other nannycrat idiocies.

What Cameron really needs to do is not only call for a referendum, but also encourage people to vote to kiss the nannycrats goodbye.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


Five Star Movement (Eurosceptic) Surges into Second Place in Italian Polls

Posted: 26 Nov 2012 10:09 AM PST

Reader Andrea who is from Italy but now lives in France writes ...

Hi Mish,

Here is a link to a web site that produces charting polls for Italian elections.
Click on the tab "I quattro poli". It shows a polynomial regression of the four major political parties.

Just for your info, a short translation of the legenda: Centro-Sinistra is the Center-Left coalition, Centro-Destra is the Center-Right coalition, Centro is of course Center (actually it is the coalition more supportive of Monti and actually seeking to have him for a second term as PM), and M5S is the usual acronym for Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement).

As you can see, Center-Left is for the moment the clear winner and M5S has now overcome Center-Right. I still think that a stall in Senate is likely anyway (which in some way could favor Monti for a second term as PM).

The other remarkable thing is that the people declaring today that they will not vote is as higher than 40% (some polls give it close to 50%).

This weekend the primary elections of Center-left took place: Pierluigi Bersani and Matteo Renzi scored first and second and a second round will be needed to choose between the 2, as nobody reached 50% in the first round. Bersani is the current secretary of the party and Matteo Renzi is the mayor of Florence and a kind of young outsider.

Best regards,

AC
Top Four Parties



Polling data appears to be from mid-October, not June as shown on the slidebar.

A deadlock in parliament following the next election may mean re-appointment of Mario Monti but the surge for the Five Star Movement is encouraging.

For more on M5S and founder Beppe Grillo, please see Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit the Euro Before Spain; Ultimate Occupy Movement.

Main Rules for the Five Star Movement

  • Not be an elected politician prior to 5 Stelle
  • Commit to stay in charge for no longer than 2 terms
  • Commit to take a minimum salary and give the rest back to the community
  • Post a public platform on the internet
  • Be willing to hold a public debate on the platform

Beppe Grillo's personal position, not a mandate for the Five Star Movement is "Get out of the Euro and default on debt".

From Andrea in the above link ...
Five Star Movement candidates have been able to get almost everywhere between 10 and 20% of votes, sometimes even more, all without a single minute of TV advertising or a single advertising page on newspapers.

The movement has simply spread via the internet, social networks and public meetings around the country. The message sent by their success is clearly: we are fed up with this corrupted, inefficient and incompetent political class.

The most important thing for the future months is the last stance Beppe Grillo has decided to take just before elections: get out of the Euro and default on debt. This position has been strongly criticized the rest of the political class and mainstream media, but the fact that Beppe Grillo has been breaking this "Taboo" and that there was a strong reaction by political and media environments, has finally opened the debate in Italy and has certainly made people to start seriously think about it, despite the fact that Italy so far had no financial help from the EU or IMF.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com