marți, 18 decembrie 2012

Marketing Analytics and the Problem of Attribution Modeling

Marketing Analytics and the Problem of Attribution Modeling


Marketing Analytics and the Problem of Attribution Modeling

Posted: 17 Dec 2012 06:43 PM PST

Posted by RuthBurr

Guys, we need to talk about attribution modeling. It’s a hot issue in our industry and most of us (SEOmoz included) aren't doing it as well as we want to be. It's tough stuff. Mike P from Distilled gave a great MozCon presentation on the topic, but most of us aren't anywhere close to that sophisticated - and even his model is impacted by Google Analytics' limitations.

It’s been covered in far more detail elsewhere, but in a nutshell: attribution modeling attempts to solve the problem of which channel gets credit when a user touches multiple channels prior to converting. Many marketers simply throw up their hands and say the last touch gets all the credit – but then we have to live with the knowledge that some of our efforts are far more effective than we give them credit for.

Not-so-super modeling

dog model
Supermodel by Soggydan on Flickr

Unfortunately, attribution modeling is very hard to do well for a lot of reasons: 

  • Any site to which users return daily (like, for example, SEOmoz.org) quickly fills up with touches that may or may not be related to conversions.
  • Channels like social media and community building are often a first touch but rarely the only touch before conversion, meaning they tend to get less credit than they deserve.
  • Attributing offline sales to online efforts can be very painful, not to mention tracking one user’s conversion path as she uses multiple devices during her buying decision.
  • In our post-Panda world, we’re spending a ton of time and effort on content that may end up on third party sites, opening us up to the near-impossible task of tracking view-through conversions.

In my opinion, however, the biggest problem with the attribution models available to us today is that their roots lie in web analytics tools like Google Analytics. This means that attribution models tend to be biased toward on-site efforts. The bulk of our marketing efforts doesn’t happen on-site, so why should our measurement? Our competitors certainly aren’t doing things on our site, so why should we content ourselves with on-site data?

Web-analytics-based attribution models also tend to break up sources at the channel level: organic search, social media, direct traffic, etc. Anyone who’s worked for months on driving traffic from Twitter and then had one tweet from Rand break their site can tell you not all social media touches are created equal, so why lump them all into Social Media?

tweet from @randfish

Finally, attribution models are incredibly difficult to implement for success metrics beyond conversion (more on that later).

Marketing analytics is about campaigns, not channels

Here at the MozPlex, we’ve been talking a lot about marketing analytics: the way we measure and optimize our marketing activities. I think Joanna put it best in her post: “Marketing analytics is the act of looking past mere website results, and asking yourself, ‘How did that marketing campaign really go?’”

Marketing analytics means going beyond the data we can get from our web analytics tool so you can measure off-site and even offline activities. Capturing that additional data about how your off-site and on-site marketing activities are performing allows you to test with greater confidence, and as marketers, we should always be testing. It’s probably not as simple as “social media doesn’t drive as many conversions as organic search.” Instead, we can test how to spend our time and money - which levers to pull at which time and in which way - to attract, keep, and delight our customers. At the same time, we can take a cross-channel, holistic view of our efforts to see what messages are resonating best.

All conversions aren’t created equal

Of course, one thing we want to do with our marketing efforts is make more money. ROI-driven modeling is always going to be part of what we’re measuring. However, modern marketers are driving for more than just the lead or the sale or the free trial. We’re looking at micro-conversions like newsletter signups. We’re watching and participating in conversations about our brand. We’re investing in customer happiness. We’re tracking shares, tweets, mentions, and views – and we’re keeping an eye on how are competitors are doing, too.

In addition to major conversions, marketing analytics is about tracking customer loyalty.

customer loyalty
Forever Friends by dprotz, on Flickr

We can often gain as much revenue from keeping our existing customers happy as from getting new ones. What happens after the conversion?

Marketing analytics is also about tracking brand identity. This is becoming more and more important as the major search engines focus more and more on brand strength as a quality indicator. This is another area where typical attribution models just don’t go far enough. Brand-centric campaigns are as much about generating conversation and positive feelings as they are about directly causing more conversions – this makes it harder to prove value if conversions are your only KPI. Branding has an influence on direct traffic, but it also has a big influence on organic search traffic from branded keywords.

So, should that traffic still count as organic search, if branding efforts are what inspired the search in the first place? This is another area where a more campaign-centric view can provide more insight than simply attributing conversions to channels.

Getting closer to marketing analytics

We’re still in the early days of true marketing analytics, which means we’re still mashing up data from a bunch of different tools and struggling to find the right ways to track campaigns. In the meantime, we can start hacking our web analytics’ attribution monitoring tools to go beyond simple channel attributions:

Advanced metrics for attribution modeling

  • Top referrers (separated out from the rest of referral traffic)
  • Top keywords (separated out from the rest of the keywords)
  • Long-tail keywords (same deal)
  • Top partners and/or affiliates
  • (not provided) search traffic
  • Branded and non-branded search traffic
  • Individual social networks (A friend and a follower may not be the same!)
  • Individual feeds
  • Individual paid advertising sources

We can also start thinking of (and tracking) our data with a marketing analytics mindset:

Advanced metrics for marketing analytics

  • Messages
  • Type of touch (Branding? Promotion? Retention? Happiness?)
  • Type of product
  • Audience
  • Time of day
  • Conversations

In the end, marketing analytics is more useful than straight-up attribution modeling, because it allows you to view your marketing efforts holistically. When you view individual customer touches as part of a larger whole instead of siloed by medium, you can take a longer and more customer-driven view of your marketing efforts.


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Hanukkah at the White House

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
 
Hanukkah at the White House

President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama welcomed friends and leaders from the Jewish community last week to celebrate the sixth night of Hanukkah. In his remarks, the President remembered the enduring story of resilience and optimism that is the essence of this holiday.

The 90-year-old menorah used in the ceremony came from the Temple Israel synagogue in Long Beach, New York, which was badly damaged by Hurricane Sandy. It served as a symbol of perseverance, and as a reminder of those who are still recovering from Sandy’s destruction.

Find out more about last week's Hanukkah celebration at the White House.

President Barack Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, and Rabbi Larry Bazer participate in the Menorah lighting during the Hanukkah reception in the Grand Foyer of the White House, Dec. 13, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

President Barack Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, and Rabbi Larry Bazer participate in the Menorah lighting during the Hanukkah reception in the Grand Foyer of the White House, Dec. 13, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

Resources for Parents and Schools After Connecticut Tragedy
Following Friday's shooting at an elementary school in Newtown, CT, the Department of Education has provided a number of resources to help parents in the wake of traumatic events, as well as a host of resources to help schools prepare for and recover from crisis.

President Obama at Prayer Vigil for Connecticut Shooting Victims: "Newtown, You Are Not Alone"
On Sunday, President Obama traveled to Newtown, CT to meet with the families of those who were lost in Friday's tragic shooting, and to thank first responders for their work. The President spoke at an interfaith vigil for families of the victims.

Weekly Address: Nation Grieves for Those Killed in Tragic Shooting in Newtown, CT
The President says the nation’s thoughts and prayers are with those who lost a loved one during Friday’s tragic shooting in Newtown, CT. 

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

10:15 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

12:30 PM: Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

4:35 PM: The President meets with Secretary of Defense Panetta

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

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Does Santa need an online marketing strategy?

Does Santa need an online marketing strategy?

Link to SEOptimise » blog

Does Santa need an online marketing strategy?

Posted: 18 Dec 2012 04:33 AM PST

A few years ago, this blog brought you ‘Online marketing tips for Santa‘. Well, this year (to guarantee our place on the right side of the ‘naughty or nice’ list), we’ve looked again at how he could improve his online presence.

Frankly, it’s not looking good. Father Christmas needs to rank for some incredibly competitive keywords, like ‘Christmas’, ‘present’ and ‘Santa’. So does the jolly fat man need to ditch his old routine and find a dynamic new online identity that’ll be easier to drive up the SERPs? For a bit of fun and for a bit of a laugh, this article takes a tongue-in-cheek look…

Should he rebrand?

On some occasions, it’s worth considering dumping a name that’s simply impossible to rank for. Too many other organisations use his branding; he's everywhere this time of year. That makes it very difficult for the genuine item to rank highly for his own brand, because there's such a lot of competition. He could consider a new name – Doc Frost, or the Gift Geezer perhaps – but there’s plenty of positive sentiment and goodwill surrounding his existing name, and he may not want to ditch it.

Of course, once the online community recognises that he's the real deal, he's likely to get a tonne of inbound links and will soon be considered a high authority site, pushing him to the top of the SERPs.

But how to find that initial audience… Here are some ways he could increase his brand awareness levels, without changing his name or selling his soul to Coca Cola.

Local Search

Services like Google Places are a useful way to make your location known to customers who need to visit you, so Santa should make sure he has Place pages for each of his offices in Lapland and the North Pole.

Once these are established, long-tail geographic key phrases, such as “Christmas presents in Lapland” or “Christmas presents in London”, should help him to rank for location-specific searches without harming his rankings for shorter terms. Those shorter terms, where used, should adopt a scatter-gun approach to cover all likely variations and synonyms – it’s no good ranking for ‘Christmas presents’ if your customers are searching for ‘Christmas gifts’.

And of course, anybody searching for those longer phrases should find his location-specific landing pages highly relevant, helping to get them engaged with his content more quickly.

Mobile 

It’s a mobile world these days, but responsive web design can make sure web pages look right on any kind of device, without limiting access to content. Google recommends using responsive web design, and it makes sense from a visitor's perspective as it lets you show all of your content to visitors on PCs, laptops, tablets, and phone handsets, with full control over how it appears.

If Santa doesn't have the technology or know-how, there are plenty of agencies that would be happy to give him a good deal. After all, a recommendation from Father Christmas probably goes a long way…

Penguin

Penguins may be more Antarctic than North Pole but they're still something for Santa to consider. A well-stuffed turkey is a Christmas tradition, but a keyword-stuffed website is definitely out, along with way too many keyword-stuffed anchor text backlinks from low quality and irrelevant websites.

Fortunately, there are a lot of variations on Santa's name (Father Christmas, Saint Nick etc.) so he can fill his website with his brand without spoiling the site for humans. Google’s Penguin update began to penalise websites for containing too many keywords within a website’s text fields. Varying the key phrases and setting up targeted outreach activities and link-bait campaigns that attract natural and high quality backlinks is a good antidote to this.

This actually turns Santa’s diluted brand name into a strength, as there’s no reason why he can’t perform well for all of the names people commonly use for him, bringing that fairly disparate audience together in one place – his new, branding-heavy website – to deliver a clear and cohesive message to the world as one.

Coming to Town – Fighting Duplicates

With a Santa impersonator in every high-street store, Saint Nick needs to reclaim his true place as the face of Christmas. A few well-timed flash mobs, guest appearances on the news, and holding press conferences for the print and television media could quickly make the headlines, winning him some high-quality mentions.

If he’s persuasive with his gifts, he could potentially get links back to his website from high-authority news sites – not bribes, obviously, but perhaps a couple of well-chosen items for column editors to review.

In a fast-moving world, genuine brand heritage is still something that many consumers appreciate, not to mention good customer service. Santa not only has centuries of brand-building behind him, he also has a reputation as never failing to deliver, even against the world’s tightest deadline.

Nobody can do it as well as he does, and that’s always a powerful brand message.

Going Social

Santa’s a busy man, but he has a full-time team of elves to manage his Facebook, Twitter, and Google+ profiles. He can use foursquare to keep his followers updated on his every move. He can also share photos on his social media profiles and also use his video channel on YouTube to build a global community.

All of this will help him create true engagement, allowing this long-time absent figure to return to the 21st century Christmas gifts market with a bang and stake his claim as the true brand identity for the festive period.

For good little girls and boys all over the world, sending a tweet or a Facebook message is also a slightly more reliable method of reaching Santa directly than simply throwing a letter on the fire and hoping the smoke reaches him at the North Pole.

Social Marketing

As Santa is looked up to by children the world over, he can align his brand with good causes, such as support for vulnerable children all over the world. Aligning his brand with social causes will not only help him increase brand equity, but help create a sustainable solution to global issues all year round – transforming Santa into a brand that’s for life, not just for Christmas.

This type of socially responsible marketing, often referred to as ’cause marketing’, is a win-win situation for brands that want to give something back, their customers who want to shop ethically, and for the good causes they help.

Who knows, Santa – whose ‘naughty or nice’ policy has set his brand ethics in stone from the very start – might make social marketing so successful it could come to be known not as ’cause marketing’, but as ‘Claus marketing’ in the years to come.

What advice would you give Santa? Share your opinions in the comments below. You never know, Father Christmas might take your advice, which has got to be worth a place on the 'nice' list.

Image credit: PepOmint

© SEOptimise - Download our free business guide to blogging whitepaper and sign-up for the SEOptimise monthly newsletter. Does Santa need an online marketing strategy?

Related posts:

  1. Content strategy for Christmas and the New Year
  2. Valentine's Day Marketing Strategy – Did Your Brand Get it Right?
  3. 25 Online Marketing Trends for 2013

Seth's Blog : Utility vs. entertainment

 

Utility vs. entertainment

A graduate seminar is going on, with a dozen students paying a fortune to fill seats that are in high demand. Some of the students are using cell phones to update Facebook or tweet--and they are sitting right next to students listening intently and not merely taking notes. This juxtaposition puts a very sharp point on an overlooked distinction: some forms of media we engage with because there's a significant utlity, and sometimes, we're merely entertaining ourselves.

Every student in the lecture makes a choice in each moment--to be entertained and be in sync with the crowd online, or to find utility, by doing the more difficult work of focusing on something that only pays off in the long run.

And if that was the end of it, caveat emptor. But it's not, because media consumed doesn't merely have an impact on the consumer.

Media, of course, has morphed and expanded, and the change is accelerating. It has grown in both time spent and impact on us. Now, media consumption changes just about everything in our lives, all day long. While a century ago, a few minutes a day might have been spent with a newspaper or reading a letter, today, it's not unusual for every minute of the day to involve consuming or creating media (or dealing with the repercussions of that). Media doesn't just change what we focus on, it changes the culture it is part of.

I think we can agree that sending animated gifs or wasting an hour with the Jersey Shore have no utility, really, other than as a pasttime. Court TV didn't make us smarter, it just wasted our time and attention. At the other extreme is learning a difficult new skill or attending an essential meeting, bringing full attention to something that doesn't always delight or tantalize. Or consider the difference between viewing politics as a sporting event with winners and losers each day, compared with the difficult work of digging in and actually understanding (and participating in) what's being discussed...

The blended situations, though, are worth sorting out. Is watching the news an activity that has utility? Perhaps it does for a headline, but is an endless, shallow, pundit-filled examination of politics or disasters actually producing value? When we involve desperate strangers in reality TV shows (planned or not), where is the utility? Does it make us better?

The media-industrial complex, of course, wants to turn everything into a profitable show. Is that what we want? 

More media is not better media.

Fast media is not improved media.

Pack media is not the media we need.

Entertaining media is not the only option.



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luni, 17 decembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Calpers Seeks Exemption From Bankruptcy Laws, Wants First-in-Line Payment Status; California, Illinois Completely Dysfunctional

Posted: 17 Dec 2012 07:46 PM PST

Nearly every day there is another disgusting story regarding the outright parasitic behavior of public unions in California.

Today I have a pair of recent articles to present. The first is entitled Californian's $609,000 Check Shows True Retirement Cost.

That article is part of a stunning six-part series by authors Michael B. Marois and Rodney Yap. I encourage you to click on the link and read the entire piece.

Also consider Calpers Bankruptcy Strategy Pits Retirees vs. All Others.
The California Public Employees' Retirement System is trying to rewrite the rules for bankrupt cities, claiming that it should get paid before almost everyone else, including bondholders.

The biggest U.S. public pension fund would set a legal precedent should courts adopt Calpers's position that, as an arm of the state, it is exempt from rules that apply to other creditors in the Chapter 9 bankruptcy cases of San Bernardino and Stockton. A Calpers victory would threaten public services in a city trying to reorganize in bankruptcy, or in an extreme case, cause a city to disincorporate, attorney James E. Spiotto said in an interview.

"Chapter 9 was never intended to cause the liquidation of a municipality or the reduction of services," said Spiotto, who isn't involved in the San Bernardino and Stockton cases. "What Calpers is doing is threatening the basic tenet of Chapter 9."

Pension costs for retired public employees are straining local governments from California to Rhode Island. In Southern California, San Bernardino says it is so strapped for cash it must put off $13 million in payments to Calpers or risk public safety. About 400 miles (644 kilometers) north, creditors of Stockton are fighting Calpers in court as well, arguing that the pension fund shouldn't be given preferential treatment and urging the city to take an aggressive stance in negotiations.

San Bernardino will battle Calpers in a federal court in Riverside, California, on Dec. 21 over two related legal issues: whether Calpers can sue the city to force it to make about $7 million in missed payments and whether the city should be kicked out of bankruptcy.

Calpers blames elected officials for San Bernardino's financial problems, saying in an e-mail that they made "irresponsible and short-sighted" decisions. Cutting back on what the city owes employees would make it hard to recruit qualified workers, Calpers spokesman Robert Glazier said.
Blatant Lies By Calpers

Just listen to those pathetic lies by Glazier. California would be flooded with qualified people for every position if it could put contracts out for competitive bids outside of collective bargaining contracts.

Taxpayers have to pay through the nose because corrupt California politicians are in bed with corrupt administrators and corrupt union officials.

California, Illinois Completely Dysfunctional

California and Illinois are uniquely, and completely dysfunctional with the most union corruption and the worst funded public pension plans in the nation.

Bankruptcy is the only way to fix the problem, unless of course some corrupt judge protecting his own public pension rules in Calpers' favor.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines 5th Straight Month; Profit Squeeze Underway

Posted: 17 Dec 2012 12:46 PM PST

Inquiring minds are taking a peek at the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, a publication of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The December 2012 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to decline at a modest pace.



Points of Interest

  • General business conditions index was negative for a fifth consecutive month, falling 2.9 points to -8.1
  • New orders dropped 6.8 point to -3.7
  • Shipments dropped 5.8 points to +8.8
  • Prices paid rose 1.5 points to +16.1
  • Prices received fell 4.5 points to +1.1
  • Number of employees remains in contraction although the index rose 4.9 points to -9.7
  • Average work week fell 2.9 points to -10.8


This was a weak report with business conditions contracting for 5 months and new orders also dropping.

Profit Squeeze Underway



Note the margin squeeze on manufacturers. Prices paid are rising while prices received are on the verge of contraction.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Gloves Come Off in Google vs. Germany; Expect Newspapers to Lose by Winning; Buggy-Whips vs. Autos

Posted: 17 Dec 2012 10:06 AM PST

European newspapers, especially those in Germany, France, and Italy are upset that Google does not share ad revenue with them for headlines that come up in online searches. I am not talking about entire articles I am talking about links to articles.

My position is that Google is actually doing the newspapers a favor. By posting headlines, the online newspapers get more hits (and thus more ad revenue) than they would otherwise. In this sense, Google is providing a free service and the newspapers should be happy that Google links to them at all.

The newspapers and politicians do not see it that way and Gloves come off in Google v Germany.
Google and German newspaper publishers are poised to trade blows at a parliamentary hearing at the end of January over plans to allow Germany's print media to charge internet search engines for displaying links to newspaper articles.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats and their Free Democrat junior partners want to force online news aggregators like Google to ask permission to publish links to and excerpts of newspapers' web offerings – an extension of copyright that many lawmakers hope will allow publishers to charge license fees of Google and its rivals.

The proposal is intended to allow newspapers better to recoup some of the revenue they have lost as advertisers and readers migrate to the web.

The legislative push is increasingly also attracting the notice of newspaper owners and politicians in other European countries such as France and Italy.

With newspapers across Europe struggling to make money, publisher groups in France, Italy, Portugal and Switzerland have joined their German peers to call for "regulation of the digital economy" and "rebalancing the economy of the web".

Google says the campaign "Protect your web – find what you're looking for" is a success. A spokesman told the FT some 1.5m people had visited the site since it went live late October, with 60,000 users signing up to protest against the bill.

Justice Minister Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger expressed shock at how the company was trying to influence public opinion. "There are other search engines than Google," she said. Philipp Rösler, economy minister, warned Google "to watch for the difference between protecting one's interests and misleading the public".
Buggy-Whips vs. Autos

Politicians and newspapers want to protect dying industries that cannot make it on their own. So they have concocted a policy that is tantamount to writing legislation to protect buggy whip manufacturers from the evils of the automobile.

Quite frankly it's ridiculous. As I stated, Google is actually doing the newspapers a favor by linking to them. Google is doing the reader a favor by offering links to articles they might otherwise miss. Everyone wins actually.

However, newspapers are dying so they want handouts. Politicians are nearly always ready and willing to provide solutions to non-problems if it will get them campaign contributions.

Google has threatened to not link to news articles if the bill passes. Will that save the newspapers? How? Instead of getting some ad revenue they will get none. Will copyright legislation force readers to buy newsprint or online newspapers?

If you think so, think again. Google will stop linking to news media in protected countries in favor of the same or similar story in other places. If the other search engines do the same, the result will be a decrease in ad revenue to the online newspapers in affected countries.

Expect Newspapers to Lose by Winning

Don't expect any clear thinking on this issue. Instead, expect politicians to pad their pockets with campaign contributions and for newspapers to lose ad revenue when the legislation actually passes.

Indeed, the general rule of thumb is to always expect the worst when politicians attempt to "rebalance" anything. Nothing good ever comes from it.

Depending on how the legislation is written, bloggers may not even be able to use Google translate to post snips of articles in certain other countries (not that we could find the articles in the first place if Google does not link to them).

Google Campaign

It took me a while to locate the Google campaign because the campaign was not "Protect Your Web" as the Financial Times stated, but rather "Defend Your Network - Verteidige Dein Netz"

Here is the link to "Verteidige Dein Netz". Curiously, a Google translate in Firefox says the "URL is Invalid".

However, a cut and paste of the translated text looks like this: "The Bundestag advises soon an intellectual property right. This should publishers against search engines and other services give them the right to prohibit results for press articles or make a payment dependent. For you it would be so much more difficult in the Internet to find the information that you seek. Defend your network, a single intervention against this world, mixing it for yourself and share this page with your friends!"

The article contains a video and you can enter your name on a list to keep informed of the issue. I side with Google and I am pleased to help spread the word.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Readers Share Their Student Debt Reasons and Experiences

Posted: 17 Dec 2012 01:00 AM PST

In my post Trends in College Tuition vs. Bachelor's Degree Wages; Interesting Demographics of Student Loan Debt History I noted skyrocketing student loan debt, especially in the age group 30-39. See article for details.

Since 30-39 is not the typical school demographic, I asked readers 30 years or older who are sitting on a pile of student debt to share their stories and reasons.

A summary of reasons and email snips from readers follows.

Reasons for Skyrocketing Student Debt in Age Group 30-39

  1. Interest rates are so low they encourage not paying off loans
  2. Interest rates are so high and job salary so low that debts cannot be paid back
  3. Economic incentives for special ed teachers and others
  4. Divorce sends middle-aged mothers back to school to get a job
  5. Divorce and child payments sends middle-aged men back to school seeking better opportunities
  6. Pressure to get into management, and management requires additional school
  7. Exploitative ads
  8. Deferred payments
  9. Employers unnecessarily require college degrees 
  10. Those who get married after high school decide to go back to school later in life
  11. Parents co-sign loans shifting debt responsibility to higher age group
  12. Job loss sends middle-aged persons back to school hoping for better opportunities


Email Anecdotes

Reader Steve, went back to school to become a special education teacher. He purposely loaded up on debt because "both our state and the federal government offered economic incentives in the form of student loan forgiveness to people entering that career path. Loading up on student loan debt was the only rational fiscal decision available to us."

Reader Tom went into debt thinking it was a great deal because his loans were at a low rate for 30 years. He now has the cash to pay off his student loans but does not because he "bets that boring index/asset-allocation investing will average better than 3.6% nominal over the next 15-20 years."

Reader Dave and his wife have a combined $90K in debt at a not so attractive rate of 6.8%. Right after he got his MBA Dave reports the "economy collapsed". Dave spent 2 years unemployed, accruing interest. "We'd like to buy a house, but instead we are paying the government back at excessive interest rates."

Reader Colleen mentioned the divorce factor. Women with kids and who did not work previously may need to go back to school as a result of divorce.

Reader Beth, age 30, says "I left undergrad with relatively little debt, but grad school killed me."

Reader Jeremy suggests "some of the initial student loans are in the parents' names, adding to the 'over 30' demographic". He also suggests that right before the housing bust, "tens of thousands of people were getting $16,000 student loans to fund a 2 year real estate college." After the bust there was no way to pay the debt back.

Reader Terry complains of automatic deferrals. Terry writes "My wife had initially asked for a deferment during one semester but after that, and even after repeated calls asking them to stop, they continued to defer payments and capitalize interest. You had better watch what is going on closely or you will suffer because the incompetence is incredible. Keep a sharp eye out or better yet do not go into student loan slavery, as I preach constantly to my children!"

Reader Trish also notes loan deferments writing "I already owe more in compounded interest from having my loans on unemployment deferment than I will ever be able to repay in my lifetime. I am a responsible person who understands I owe someone this money for the education I received. But as things stand now,I will literally go to my grave owing on the loans. I know this is a horrible financial mess, but it may help to explain some of the odd stats."

Reader Lucy writes "many employers are now requiring college degrees for jobs that shouldn't require one if you have commensurate experience.  For example, one company I am very familiar with decided that all new hires who are not hourly factory workers must have a degree.  They overlooked a very talented and experienced person who had 25 plus years of experience and more training and related skills than anyone with a master's degree. Business is definitely contributing to the college insanity."

Reader Matthew delayed going to school, and instead got married and got a job after high school. His boss pushed him into management and "company policy was that management had to have a bachelor's degree." Matthew succumbed to the pressure and ended up getting divorced in the process. He now has his B.A. but also a mountain of debt, child support, and a job that pays $8/hour. Matthew writes "For twenty years I've been making $8 an hour. Of course, that figure is a lot less now than it was twenty years ago when I was just starting out. Would I do it again? No. Hell no. I wasted years of my life pursuing this thing, and got nothing more than debt for the effort. My entire situation sometimes makes me laugh when I think about it. Sometimes it makes me cry. Mostly it just makes me bitter. And I try not to think about it."

Reader Drew writes "Throughout the 90s and 2000s, we obtained degrees which are not supported by income. As a result, we deferred monthly payment and/or missed payments over the last decade. It's easy to see how student loans fall to the back of the bus. I'm 39 and am slowly chipping away at my wife's master's degree."

Reader Lynn writes "In Austin, television is filled with badly-acted ads from purported chef school students exhorting the opportunity to go to culinary school and become a professional in the food and hospitality industry. We're also bombarded with ads for car title loans, quick short term loans, etc.

For people who are stuck, desperate, and not adept at critical thinking, such ads offer a glimmer of hope that will flicker out once they graduate. The offers to help are purely exploitative and I would guess if you scratched the surface of some of these entities, you would find the same players that are tied to Wall Street.

Thanks for all the work you do trying to figure this stuff out, and then putting it out there for people to read. You are a rare soul."

Reader George says "I had many classmates that were borrowing the maximum allowed (even if it wasn't necessary) simply because they could lock in fixed payments at 2.5%."

George gets the quote of the day for his amusing comment "It's only a trillion dollars of totally unsecured, non-asset backed debt. What could possibly go wrong?"

Reader Winston wrote a lengthy email asking "Where's the control group?" Winston is tired of studies that hype up salaries of graduates while ignoring those who drop out, and also wondering how much exceptionally bright kids would make if they simply did not go to college. Winston suggests salary comparisons ought to be based on equivalent SAT scores (those who graduated from college and those who didn't).

Billionaire Dropouts

Winston's line of thinking piqued my curiosity. Here are a few names on the Wikipedia list of college-dropout billionaires.

  • Bill Gates - Microsoft co-founder
  • Mark Zuckerberg - Chairman and CEO of Facebook
  • Lawrence Ellison - Co-founder and CEO of Oracle
  • Michael Dell - Founder and CEO of DEll
  • Ralph Lauren - American fashion designer
  • John D. Rockefeller – American oil magnate (deceased)
  • Steve Jobs – co-founder and former CEO of Apple (deceased)

From Wikepedia, "According to a recent report from Cambridge, Mass.-based Forrester Research, 20% of America's millionaires never attended college."

The report is from 2000, thus not so new, but the reference link is certainly catchy "Some Billionaires Choose School Of Hard Knocks".

Think!

If you are a brick-layer or painter, don't think schooling will turn you into a Java programmer. And if you are an out-of-work Java programmer, don't think a culinary school will turn you into a chef.

Regardless of who you are or what you want to become, please think twice if you are considering going back to school to get a degree, especially a degree from a for-profit school churning out useless degrees for which there will be no job when you graduate.

Student debt may become a trap from which there is no escape (and I have a lot of emails from readers that I did not quote) to prove it.

Thanks to all who emailed their thoughts and stories whether I referenced them or not.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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