10 Predictions for Inbound Marketing in 2013

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10 Predictions for Inbound Marketing in 2013 Posted: 01 Jan 2013 06:53 PM PST Posted by randfish As is tradition here at Moz, I'm conducting my annual analysis of my predictions from 2012, and if I score high enough, predicting what will happen in 2013. I like to use this process because it keeps me honest - if I suck at predicting what will happen in a 12-month span, should you really listen to me for the next 12 months? This year, I'm also broadening my focus beyond just SEO to all of inbound marketing - search, social, content, PR, CRO, and email. Hence, if my predictions from last year do well, I'll be making a few more guesses about the year to come than usual. Here's how scoring works: Spot On (+2) - when a prediction hits the nail on the head and the primary criteria are fulfilled Partially Accurate (+1) - predictions that are in the area, but are somewhat different than reality Not Completely Wrong (-1) - those that landed near the truth, but couldn't be called "correct" in any real sense Off the Mark (-2) - guesses which didn't come close The rules state that if the score is lower than +1, I'm not allowed to make predictions for the coming year. Here's to hoping! In 2012, I made 8 predictions: Bing will have a slight increase in US marketshare, but remain <20% to Google's 80%+: This one is spot on if you use real numbers like those from Statcounter (which makes way more sense than using Comscore). Here's the graph for 2012: _ _ It's showing almost exactly what I predicted. Bing has gained very slightly in the US (while Yahoo! shrunk a tiny bit), but the two combined remains at 18.2% while Google hovers at 80.68% (GG+AOL). That's worthy of +2 points. SEO without social media will become a relic of the past: I'm struggling with exactly how to rate this one. One the one hand, there are certainly forms of SEO that can exist independent of social media, and some practitioners still don't combine the two. On the other hand, that number has drifted to a very small percent of the SEO world, and the use of social, especially in link building, outreach, PR, research, and networking is nearly universal. This one comes down to opinion, but I think few would say it's off the mark, so I'll give a +1. Google will finally take stronger, Panda-style action against manipulative link spam: This one was a slam dunk. The "Penguin Update" is not only focused specifically on link spam, but it's also similar to Panda's style of updating and, many suspect, uses much of the frameworks that Google's Search Quality team built with Panda. +2 points on this prediction. Pinterest will break into the mainstream: To be fair, this was one of the easiest predictions to make for 2012, given how Pinterest was exploding at the end of 2011. And while growth the first half of the year was exceptional, it slowed in the 2nd half (as seen below in this chart from Nielsen's excellent Social Media Report 2012): _ _ I'll only give myself a +1 despite the fact that Pinterest was the web's fastest growing social network in 2012, due to that slowing second-half growth, and the fact that from a media, investor, and market standpoint, Pinterest still isn't mentioned alongside Twitter & Facebook. Overly aggressive search ads will result in mainstream backlash against Google: Given how Google ads and Google properties are appearing in verticals like travel, autos, mortgages, and credit cards, I'm surprised we haven't seen more of a backlash. _ _ Certainly, we've seen some activity like EU regulators cracking down on some potentially monopolistic practices, but the outrage for Google's ad practices are miniscule compared to, say, the TOS changes by Instagram. I suspect the search giant is still benefiting from the positive reputation it's built over the past decade. We'll see if they can maintain that long term. All in all, I'm giving myself a -1 on this prediction. There's been some backlash and we may see some legal consequences, but they're pretty small. Keyword (not provided) will rise to 25%+ of web searches: I'm sad to be right on this one. I believe Google is destroying value on the web and hurting the ability of site owners and content creators to better serve searchers, and doing so only in the interests of protecting their own revenue opportunities (since keyword data is still provided to any paying AdWords customers). _ _ The above chart comes from the excellent (Not Provided) Count project which tracks referral data across a large number of sites in a variety of verticals to show the average impact. Given that this number hit just over 25% at the end of the year, I'm giving myself a +2. Predictions that accurate don't come along often - I only wish it was a less negative one.  We'll see the rise of a serious certification program: Tragically, this still hasn't happened. Distilled U is certainly a great resource, and Market Motive, Search Engine College and free programs like Hubspot's Inbound University continue to do well, but there's no true standard (or even a combination of standards). I'm giving this one a -2 as the trend just hasn't materialized in a mainstream enough way to deserve more. Google will make it very hard to do great SEO without using Google+: this one's tough. It's mostly true for local business SEO, where Google Local Pages now require a Google+ account. And certainly Google's authorship program, which leverages Plus, is a powerful tool for content publishers (and has some hidden benefits, too). However, Google+ signals like shares and +1s don't appear to be a big part of the ranking algorithm. Thus, I'm giving myself a -1. Taken together, the total score is a surprisingly good +4. That means it's time for another set of annual predictions! #1: None of the potential threats to Google's domination of search will make even a tiny dent I've heard all the theories - Apple is getting into search, Facebook is getting into search, DuckDuckGo will take market share, Amazon will restart their old A9 project and take share, Bing will take share as Google loses consumer trust, Yandex & Baidu will expand to other markets and slowly peel away users, and all the rest. I don't buy any of them. Google is a "default behavior" for the world's Internet users, and it's going to take massive, repeated failures on their part or a complete shift in the way the web is used before Google will feel even a sliver of pain. My prediction is that Google's market share at the end of 2013 will remain at least steady, and possibly gain in the US, and its global domination will continue unabated. BTW - If I had to place a bet on which of these would have the best chance, it would probably be Amazon (mostly because search is a behavior we're used to on Amazon and their brand already serves as a destination in lots of commerce-focused verticals). But, I still think it wouldn't work. #2: "Inbound marketing" will be in more titles & job profiles as "SEO" becomes too limiting for many professionals Searching LinkedIn today, I can see that "SEO" far, far outnumbers "inbound marketing" on job profiles. The same holds true for job postings on aggregator sites like SimplyHired:   Inbound Marketing, Seo trends Inbound Marketing jobs | Seo jobs   But, I think there's already a trend among early adopters to expand their job descriptions and earn more responsibility and influence in areas that have a significant impact on SEO - social media, PR, contente, etc. The only term I've seen that potentially rivals "inbound marketing" is "growth hacker," but that's confined to only the most hardcore Silicon Valley cultures and companies, and the definition seems far less clear. Still, it''s my guess that either or both of these terms will make a more serious showing in job profiles and listings in 2013. #3: More websites will move away from Google Analytics as the only provider of web visitor tracking I read Russ Jones' post on Dropping Google Analytics for Piwik and it struck a chord. I think we're going to see more of this as marketers grow more suspicious of Google and less happy with relying on what the search giant does or doesn't grant. I do expect this trend to be small, but measurable, in 2013. Benefcators will include folks like Piwik, but also potentially Omniture and Webtrends on the enterprise side (though both have UX and usability work to do to catch u with GA), and Clicky, Statcounter, Mint, Mixpanel, KISSMetrics, Hubspot, and others on the SMB end. #4: Google+ will continue to grow in 2013, but much more slowly than in 2012 At last report (Dec. 6th via TNW), Google+ had 135mm active users viewing their streams on the service in a 30-day period, and 500mm total users. The total users number was only 90mm according to Google in January of 2012, meaning the service grew nearly 5X (unfortunately, we don't have earlier numbers on monthly actives). In 2013, I'm predicting both numbers to grow 1.5-2X at maximum, and I'll be shocked if Google can reach more than 300mm active monthly users. #5: App store search will remain largely ignored by marketers (for lots of defensible reasons) Apple's App Store and Google's Play Store attracted a lot of attention over the last 2 years, but not much serious effort from marketers (with some notable exceptions), particularly on the SEO side. The reason's fairly clear - search on the app store isn't anything like web search. Brand searches are probably 80%+ of that market (I'd actually guess they're well over 90%), and the algorithm used to rank apps is based on basic keyword use and metrics like downloads and ratings, hence the rich get richer. I thought Vibhu Norby's post Why We're Pivoting from Mobile-First to Web-First made a tremendous amount of sense, and while I respect and admire those who disagree (like USV's Fred Wilson), I think marketers as a whole and certainly a lot of startups, too, are going to come back to the web as the way to build a brand and mobile as a way to extend it when and where a device-specific format makes sense. #6: Facebook (and maybe Twitter, too) will make substantive efforts to expose new, meaningful data to brands that let them better track the ROI of both advertising and organic participation Both social media services are woefully underserving their advertisers and marketers today, and I predict that for paying customers as well as account administrators, more substantial and robust options will be available on the data side. A great match for marketers would be tracking via the Facebook share / Twitter tweet buttons that maps to account info in the platform's dashboard, e.g. 7,514 logged-in Twitter users visited this blog post of which 72 tweeted it. More data like sources of shares and click-tracking could add even more utility. A good example might be what FourSquare's doing with their dashboards for businesses (though I think both need to go further on the data they provide): Twitter in particular could benefit hugely from this, while Facebook is already close(ish) with their admin portal. That said, I think it's unlikely we'll see Facebook fo as FourSquare has and share full names of users who visit. #7: Google will introduce more protocols like the meta keywords for Google News, rel author for publishers, etc. Google continues to keep SEO for their engine a complex, nuanced, and fast-changing practice through the launch of dramatic numbers of updates and introduction of new optimization protocols and opportunities. I don't see this slowing down anytime soon. 2012 saw the launch of the Google News Meta Keywords tag, the expansion of the Rel=Author/AuthorRank program, and the new Google+ for Local Business pages, among others. In 2013, expect a few more of these to keep SEOs, publishers, and web businesses of all kinds on their toes. There's no rest for the optimization weary. #8: The social media tool market will continue a trend of consolidation and shrinkage I haven't seen this trend widely reported, but as we studied the social media tools market in 2011 and 2012 from a potential acquisitions perspective, we observed a surprising amount of tools and services shuttering (many of which, to be fair, were "features" not fully-baked products that could support and justify companies). We also noticed that 2012 in particular had far fewer wholly new social media monitoring/management/reporting/scheduling/analytics tools that the three prior years. I'm guessing that 2013 will be the year this comes to a head, and the few dozen social tool companies who have substantive, loyal users will gobble up or copy the key features of their smaller, less-well-suited-for-long-term-survival competitors.  #9: Co-occurrence of brands/websites and keyword terms/phrases will be proven to have an impact on search engine rankings through correlation data, specific experiments, and/or both The idea of co-occurrence as a ranking factor is by no means new, but it got a lot more attention in 2012 thanks to a number of SEO industry folks discussing it on blogs, forums, and at conferences. One of Moz's most popular WB Fridays this year was on the subject: Anchor Text is Weakening... And May Be Replaced by Co-Occurrence. Bill Slawski wrote an excellent follow-on: Not All Anchor Text is Equal And Other Co-Citation Observations, and Joshua Giardino followed him with another good piece: It's Not Co-Citation, But It's Still Awesome. #10: We'll witness a major transaction (or two) in the inbound marketing field, potentially rivaling the iCrossing acquisition in size and scope Acquisitions and IPOs make headlines and they make the market's movers & shakers (and investors) stand up and take note. In 2010, iCrossing's $325mm acquisition by Hearst Media dominated headlines and got a lot of organic search-focused agencies (and big advertising/publishing brands) taking note. That acquisition marked one of the few massive exits in the SEO/inbound space and remains the largest transaction I'm aware of outside the email world (e.g. ConstantContact, iContact, etc). Eloqua's public offering in 2012 was a bright spot, too, and I think we're in for one or two more of those in 2013. My money would be on the tools/software market (companies like Marketo, Hubspot, SearchMetrics, Conductor, Brightedge, Covario, Raven, Act-On, SproutSocial, Hootsuite, Ginza Metrics, etc) but I'm not confident enough to limit my prediction to the software space exclusively. Agencies may still be in the picture, and the big four advertising firms still have opportunity in the inbound realm, IMO. 2013 is going to move fast in our space. The relentless pace of innovation, change, and opportunity have little chance of slowing down, and that's a wonderful thing for all us in the marketing world. Hopefully, these predictions will provide some value to you - whether they do or not, I'd love to hear some of the expectations you have for what the world has in store for us in 2013. Happy New Year and best wishes for a fantastic 2013! Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

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Want to Know More About the Tax Deal?

Your Daily Snapshot for Wednesday, January 1, 2013   Want to Know More About the Tax Deal? Last night, President Obama delivered a statement on the fiscal cliff, and the bipartisan agreement that has now passed in both the Senate and House of Representatives. The agreement keeps income taxes low for the middle class, and helps to grow the economy. Watch the statement, and find out what you need to know about the deal. In Case You Missed It Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog: The Year in Review: Joining Forces to Hire American Heroes In August of 2011, President Obama challenged the private sector to hire or train 100,000 veterans and military spouses by the end of 2013. In August of 2012, First Lady Michelle Obama announced that 2,000 American companies had stepped up to the challenge, and had already exceeded that goal -- hiring 125,000 veterans and military spouses more than a year ahead of schedule. A Digital Milestone in 2012: 100,000,000 Video Views Earlier this month, we reached a milestone with the news that our videos have been viewed more than 100,000,000 (that's one hundred million!) times since we launched the official White House YouTube channel on Inauguration weekend in 2009. President and Mrs. Obama Visit Troops on Christmas Day Continuing what has become an annual tradition that is a highlight of their holiday celebrations, President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama spent some time on Christmas Day at the Marine Corps Base in Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii. Get Updates Sign up for the Daily Snapshot Stay Connected     Facebook Twitter YouTube Flickr Google+     This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Sign Up for Updates from the White House Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Seth's Blog : "Here, I made this," is difficult and frightening

 

"Here, I made this," is difficult and frightening

Hey, even the headline is a bummer. The first thing that they teach you at business book/blogging school is that "fun and easy" are the two magic words, followed, I guess, by "dummies." Difficult and frightening are not part of the syllabus.

Alas, the work we're being asked to do now, the emotional labor we're getting paid to do, is frightening. It's frightening to stand up for what we believe in, frightening to do something that might not work, frightening to do something that we have to be responsible for.

Tonight is the first ever Icarus Session, a worldwide event that might just be happening near you (click here to find the local event, and here to find out what it's all about). There are more than 360 communities signed up so far, with thousands of people around the world getting together in small groups to speak up and to support each other.

Two things might hold someone back from sharing the art they've got inside: The fear of telling the truth or the lame strategy of hiding the truth behind a sales pitch. 

If you can, find a way to come to a session near you tonight. And if you can find the voice, stand up and tell people what you care about.

Your art is vitally important, and what makes it art is that it is personal, important and fraught with the whiff of failure. This is precisely why it's scarce and thus valuable—it's difficult to stand up and own it and say, "here, I made this." For me, anyway, writing a book is far easier than handing it to someone I care about and asking them to read it.

Throughout the USA, there are bookstores (Barnes and Noble as a notable example) hosting piles of my new book, The Icarus Deception.

Here's something you might do today: Go to this site, scroll down and find the laid-out bookmark and print it out. Take the bookmark and write on it. Write down your project, your feelings, the thing you're making--share your art. Tell us your URL if you have one, or draw a picture if you like. And then go to the local bookstore and carefully put the bookmark in a copy of Icarus. (It's great with me if you support your local bookstore by buying something while you're there).

One day, someday, someone will buy the book and find your bookmark. A karmic connection will happen, and you'll be connected to a stranger. Your art will be in the world, and perhaps one day, this stranger, this reader, this fellow traveler will continue the chain, putting her bookmark into someone else's book.

Right now, the urgency is real. We have to create more art, create better art and build more substantial connections. 

 

Click above for a small film about what it means to make and share your art. The last line from Sasha is worth the four minutes. My publisher's book trailer has also just gone live.

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Mutual Guarantee Society: Spain Proposes State Guarantee of Bank Loans to Small and Medium Businesses Posted: 01 Jan 2013 04:34 PM PST Lending in Spain has all but dried up. Banks don't want to (or cannot) lend because they are capital impaired and there are too few creditworthy risks. In such an environment, lending is not wise. It will lead to more losses. But that is not how government bureaucrats think. Prime minister, Mariano Rajoy is preparing measures to 'desbancarizar' save the economy and SMEs He acknowledged President Mariano Rajoy in balance the first year of government: the main problem of the economy to start recovery is the lack of financing for SMEs [Small and Medium Enterprises]. With that goal-getting liquidity regrease economic system, the government last a number of measures to facilitate the financing of small and medium enterprises. Or what is the same, it is 'desbancarizar' the Spanish economy far too dependent on credit institutions in granting loans or other financing of productive activity. The Government is considering the creation of new instruments for SMEs operate with the State guarantee, which is considered key to boost economic activity. At the same time, they want to boost mutual guarantee societies, an instrument in the hands of the regions that did not just start with all its potential. In parallel, the Ministry of Economy is betting big on the credits of the ICO for SMEs, about 22,000 million euros in 2013 for self-employed and SMEs. The result of this 'banking' of the Spanish economy is lethal. There are no corporate funding mechanisms that provide a continuous flow of resources, which is an additional difficulty facing Spanish companies in a recessionary environment. With the addition of that full financial restructuring-dunk entities to restore its solvency levels, can not allocate funds to finance productive activity. To this we must add that the public sector is eaten much of the credit to finance their high fiscal deficits, the so-called crowding out effect, which involves the removal of private economic agents in funding. Spain Beyond Repair "Spain hopes to boost small business access to finance outside of the banking world by encouraging the market to accept paper of smaller businesses, by guaranteeing debt, and via the official credit office", writes reader Bran who lives in span and forwarded the above link. Regardless of the precise translation of "desbancarizar", I am certain it will fail. Quite literally Spain is beyond repair, at least within the eurozone. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com  Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Obama Deal Adds $3.97 Trillion to Deficit Over 10 Years; Only 5 Republicans Voted Against; White-Flag Surrender Posted: 01 Jan 2013 01:27 PM PST For all the pissing and moaning over the fiscal cliff, there was never much of a "cliff" in the first place. Worse yet, every delay made matters increasing irresponsible in terms of addressing the deficit. The final result, as passed by the Senate, watered down budget cuts from $600 billion to a mere $12 billion. Moreover, the extension of the tax cuts will add almost $4 trillion to the deficit over 10 years according to CBO analysis of the American Taxpayer Relief Act. Nonetheless, that was not enough for liberal democrats who thought they did not get enough out of the deal. The "Fiscal cliff" moves to House, where a slim hope remains that Republicans will punt this bill a mile high. In a rare late-night show of unity, the Senate voted 89 to 8 to raise some taxes on the wealthy while keeping income taxes low on more moderate earners. Republicans, unhappy that the bill contained over $600 billion in tax increases but only around $12 billion in spending cuts, said they may change it more to their liking and send it back to the Senate. Party leaders planned to take the temperature of rank-and-file lawmakers over the afternoon before deciding on a course of action. "My recommendation would be not to take a package put together by a bunch of sleep-deprived octogenarians on New Year's Eve," said Representative Steve LaTourette, a moderate Republican from Ohio who is a close ally of House Speaker John Boehner. "My district cannot afford to wait a few days and have the stock market go down 300 points tomorrow if we don't get together and do something," Representative Steve Cohen, a Democrat from Tennessee, said on the House floor. The White House has floated $600 billion worth of spending cuts in earlier negotiations, and Obama said he would be willing to tackle deficit reduction over the coming months. "There's more work to do to reduce our deficits, and I'm willing to do it," he said in a statement urging the House to pass the current bill. Republican Representative Tom Cole said his House colleagues should pass the Senate bill rather than try to change it. "We ought to take this deal right now, and we'll live to fight another day," Cole said on MSNBC. Only 5 Republicans Voted Against The Tax Foundation has additional Details of the Fiscal Cliff Tax Deal At 2AM this morning, the Senate passed H.R. 8, the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, by a vote of 89-8. Voting no were Bennet (D-CO), Carper (D-DE), Grassley (R-IA), Harkin (D-IA), Lee (R-UT), Paul (R-KY), Rubio (R-FL), Shelby (R-AL). Not voting were DeMint (R-SC), Kirk (R-IL), and Lautenberg (D-NJ). TaxProfBlog has the text of Senate-passed bill  (157 pages). The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has also produced a revenue estimate, as has the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). White-Flag Surrender Somehow, right before the election, budget cuts of 10-1 over tax hikes were not acceptable to Republicans. Now, they have settled for a package that essentially makes no budget cuts at all. This is one of the biggest white-flag political surrenders in history. Obama Tax Cut" To Add $4 Trillion To Deficit Over Next Decade President Obama made the biggest understatement ever regarding the budget deficit: "There's more work to do to reduce our deficits". More work? Pardon me for asking, when was "any" work done to reduce the deficit? Ill-fated attempts to reduce the budget deficit have only gone in reverse. Finally, it's important to note that the bill that passed the Senate is technically a tax cut. ZeroHedge accurately sums up the situation as follows "Obama Tax Cut" To Add $4 Trillion To Deficit Over Next Decade Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Damn Cool Pics

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10 Desks that are Probably More Interesting than Yours Posted: 01 Jan 2013 12:26 PM PST When is a desk, not just something you use to work on? When it's designed to look like a BMW or Treadmill. That is just one of the many cool and geeky desks we've rounded up for your viewing enjoyment.   Dali's desk Underwater desk Yard desk Treadmill desks Read full story at Serviced.co.uk.

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SEO Blog

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Top 10 (Ten) Web Analytics Tools for 2013 Posted: 01 Jan 2013 02:02 AM PST What is Web Analytics? Web analytics refers to measurement, compilation, analysis and report the internet data to identify and optimize web usage. Web analytics is a very good tool for research to assess and improve the efficiency of a website. Through Web analytics applications businesses can measure the success of... Read more »

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Seth's Blog : Do you remember?

 

Do you remember?

A year ago today, do you remember where you stood?

Last year about this time, I was lying on the couch, having ripped my hamstring with a loud pop while working out early in the morning. But that's not the sort of 'stand' that I'm talking about.

Are you more trusted? More skilled? More connected to people who care about your work?

How many people would miss your work if you stopped contributing it?

New Year's resolutions rarely work, because good intentions don't often survive a collision with reality. But an inventory is a helpful tool, a way to keep track of what you're building. Drip by drip.

Just be careful on your roller skis.

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