luni, 14 ianuarie 2013

Seth's Blog : Understanding idea adoption (you're not a slot, you choose a slot)

 

Understanding idea adoption (you're not a slot, you choose a slot)

In the last year, millions of people have bought a copy of 50 Shades. Here's the thing: they didn't all do it at the same time.

Some people bought it when it was a self-published ebook. Others jumped in when word of mouth started to spread, enough that it became a bestseller. Most people, though, waited until it was on the bestseller list, in piles at the bookstore and the subject of positive and negative discussion and even parodies. And a few people are going to buy it two years from now, after everyone else who was willing to read it already has.

Another example: Just about all of the people who read this blog have read one of my books, and yet, just about no one who reads this blog has read my newest book yet (less than 2%, surely).

This is what almost always happens. Individuals choose a slot based on what sort of leadership or risk or followership behavior makes them happy right now. Early adopters and nerds like to go first. But some people are early when it comes to shoes, or to mystery novels, or records, while others adopt early when it comes to political ideas or restaurants.

Most of the time, most of us choose to be in the slot of mass. The masses wait to see the positive reviews, or they monitor the bestseller lists. The masses know they have plenty of time, that they'll get around to it when they get a chance, and mostly, they are driven by what their peers (the early adopters, the ones who keep track of this stuff) tell them. "Why waste time and money on the wrong thing," they argue, with some persuasion. So they wait for proof. Social proof or statistical proof.

[Beyond mass: No, everyone is not going to sign up for your new online service or buy my new book. We're talking about pockets of people, micro markets. But within those micro markets, everyone is not the same. Within those micro markets, some people are itching to go first, and plenty of people are waiting patiently to get it right.]

The glitch in the system is that many marketers obsess only about the launch. They put their time and money and effort into the first week on sale, and then run to work on the next thing, when in fact, the mass market, those that choose to wait for more than, "it's new!" haven't decided to take the leap yet.

Perversely, marketers look at what typically happens after the launch and say, "it's not worth sticking with this, because stuff that doesn't take off right away rarely does." And the reason? Because it was abandoned by the marketers who introduced it and then ran off to play with the next shiny object. It's self-fulfilling.

The fact is that almost all the profits of the record and book businesses come from the backlist, from Pink Floyd and Dr. Seuss. Apple sold almost all of its iPhones in the months after each launched, not the first day. Because that's what the market wanted. The exception that proves the rule: The Super Bowl only happens once a year, and it's just about the only time that everyone does everything at the same time.

I don't think the job of the marketer is to encourage people to jump from one chosen slot to another. I don't think it's worth the time or the energy to get someone who is comfortable with mass to suddenly turn into an early adopter, at least for today. Better, I think, to live in and work with and embrace your market, to go where they are, not to pressure them to change their habit.



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Why Content Goes Viral: the Theory and Proof

Why Content Goes Viral: the Theory and Proof


Why Content Goes Viral: the Theory and Proof

Posted: 13 Jan 2013 06:12 PM PST

Posted by Carson Ward

Not all great content goes viral, but (with the exception of awesomely terrible videos) content that does go viral is great. No one can guarantee that any piece of content will take the web by storm, but we can make sure that a piece of content has what it takes.

Long-time citizens of the web can often tell from a first-reading or viewing that a piece is going to explode, but why? Opinions about what it takes to be viral are easy to come by, but let’s look at the facts with data to prove it.

Write long, in-depth posts

In a scientific, statistical look at what makes content most shareable online, two University of Pennsylvania professors looked at the New York Times’ most emailed list to see if they could determine what cause people to share article. You can download the entire PDF here.

The first finding is that longer articles tend to be shared far more often. The correlation remains strong even after taking the amount of site exposure into account. In fact, sheer word count was more closely correlated with sharing than any other variable examined. John Doherty found a similar correlation this past October, finding that long posts receive more than their fair share of links.

Correlation isn’t causation (sorry, the phrase is cliché for a reason), and it’s possible that there’s something else at work here. Perhaps the journalists tend to write longer pieces when they’re writing on hot topics, for example.

A causal relationship makes sense, though. I’m far more likely to email or tweet something from #longreads or /r/DepthHub than a 200-word summary on the same topic. Long posts have the potential to be immersive and thorough in a way that’s impossible for short pieces. If I care about the topic at all, I don’t want to share an article with friends or readers if it just skims over the surface. If you want your word to spread, cover the topic fully.

Long posts aren’t all flowers and sunshine though. While long posts appear more likely to be shared through email and links, a separate study on blog comments found that users are less likely to comment on long posts.

Inspire anger, awe, or anxiety

You won’t be surprised to learn that posts that spend a lot of time on the home page are more likely to go viral, but after adjusting for variables the study does a pretty good job of showing which emotions make a post more viral:

Content that inspires low-energy emotions like sadness is less likely to be shared, where content that inspires high-energy emotions like awe, anger, and anxiety is far more likely to be shared.

Anger wins the award as the most viral emotion studied. Before belittling and insulting your readers, note that anger is typically directed at the topic – not the author or publication. Inciting anger in readers typically requires some tolerance for dealing with controversial topics. The comment study also found that controversial blog posts receive twice as many comments on average. Still, many brands will want to avoid hot topics that could alienate customers and partners.

For most, awe will be the safest and most reliable path towards viral content. Awe is more than surprise – it’s the reason we can’t stop watching movies with big explosions and larger-than-life heroes. Creative inventions, completed labor-intensive projects, stunning design, and novel are all ways to fill viewers and readers with awe.

Prove you care

Emotion-filled posts tend to be shared more, according to the survey. Creating content with an emotional tone can be harder than it sounds, especially in professional writing. This has always been a weakness of mine – I don’t write my emotions, even on topics I am freakishly passionate about. Overly-professional and mechanical corporate writing does not get shared.

There are piles and piles of good, insightful, thoughtful content that no one ever cared about – much of it was just too damn bland. If you need inspiration, look to Ian Lurie for examples of writing that no one would consider bland. (That’s a compliment, I swear.)

Practically useful, surprising, and interesting

Content that is surprising, interesting, and practically useful receives more shares than the obvious, boring, and useless content. These might be the most intuitive of the findings, but it’s helpful to keep in mind the degree to which each variable impacts sharing.

interesting, practical, and surprising increase viral chances

Known authors

Being known by the audience had a large impact on whether a news article was shared. In fact, the fame of the author was just slightly more important that content that was surprising. Luke Clum recently said it best on the Distilled blog:

“…a common misconception has developed amongst SEO’s – mainly that good content speaks entirely for itself. While content is innately influential, it usually only carries the authority of its creator or publisher.” (source)

SEOs are experts in detecting credible content online, yet we sometimes forget that every piece of content is at least partly considered based on its author’s reputation – or lack thereof – and credibility. If a piece of content is intended to go viral, an industry authority (aspiring or current) will usually be better off taking charge of it. Otherwise, content may need to make a special effort to inspire trust (e.g. through introduction and stories).

Female authors

The NYT study also suggests that female authors had a greater chance of going viral, but the underlying reasons are unclear. Do women choose more viral topics than men? Is the Times better at hiring female journalists? We may never know.

The easy answer: humor

Most obviously, content that is truly and broadly viral is almost always funny. One study interestingly titled “From subservient chickens to brawny men” found that despite 62% of ads being aired by Fortune 500 companies, 60% of viral ads were being generated by the smaller companies. The discussion continues:

“Humor was employed at near unanimous levels for all viral advertisements. Consequently, this study identified humor as the universal appeal for making content viral.”

Humor isn't always the answer, but it's essentially a pre-requisite for a viral ad. Small companies win more than their share of attention because they're willing to be a little more interesting and less sterile. Take Mike Pantoliano’s advice: shut up and be funny

Limitations

As I’ve said, these studies looked at correlation (which is not necessarily causation). Further, quantifying human response is enormously difficult, and not everyone is the same. I am by no means suggesting that the viral checklist is applicable to every single person on the planet. Still, I’m pretty comfortable with the research behind the checklist, and it passes the common-sense test.

A viral checklist

Two months from now it’s going to be easy to sit down and create content in the same habits we always have. Not all content needs to be viral, but when that’s the goal, make sure that you accomplish all of the following.

  • Did you sufficiently cover the topic? Is it long enough? (24)
  • Does the content inspire a high-energy emotion like awe (16), anger(18), or anxiety (18)?
  • Did your tone convey emotion? (12)
  • Is it practically useful? (16)
  • Is it interesting? (14)
  • Is it surprising? (8)
  • Does the author have fame/credibility? (8)
  • If it’s supposed to be funny, is it actually funny? Are you sure your friends aren’t just being nice? (∞)

You can’t always have all of these factors, so I've added a maximum score in parenthesis to help prioritize those factors that research has shown to be most important to sharing. If you rate your content at or near 100, it's likely that it has a far greater chance of going viral.


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duminică, 13 ianuarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Global PC Shipments Decline 6.4%; Best Buy Sales Flat; Toys R Us Sales Decline 4.5%; 4th Quarter GDP Estimate Reduced to .8% from 1.5%

Posted: 13 Jan 2013 07:27 PM PST

Holiday sales of electronics and toys plunged this past Christmas season. Also of note, JPMorgan lowered its annualized 4th quarter GDP estimates down to .8% from 1.5%. Nonetheless, analysts see a silver lining to the data. They always do.

Toys R Us Sales Decline 4.5%

MSN Money reports Gloomy Holiday Sales at Toys R Us
Toys R Us reported a key sales figure declined in November and December, hurt by weak demand for videogames, electronics and toys and shoppers who pulled back because of Superstorm Sandy.

"We believe our December sales were impacted by softness in the overall markets for videogames, electronics and toys, and by the uncertain economic environment in the U.S. and abroad," said CEO Jerry Storch.

The privately held toy store owner said revenue from domestic stores open at least one year fell 4.5 percent in the U.S. in November and December combined. In December alone, that figure fell 1.8 percent. The company operates more than 800 namesake and Babies R Us stores in the U.S. and another 600-plus stores overseas.

Best Buy Sales Flat to Down

USA Today reports Best Buy sales flat or down during holidays

Struggling consumer electronics chain Best Buy said Friday that a key revenue metric declined during the critical holiday season.

But its flat performance in the U.S. was better than the past several quarters, and online revenue showed strong growth.

The chain said revenue at stores open at least a year fell 1.4% for the nine weeks ended Jan. 5. This figure is a key gauge of a retailer's health because it excludes results from stores recently opened or closed.

The company's U.S. performance was flat. While this was a hair below the 0.3% increase Best Buy reported in the prior-year period, President and CEO Hubert Joly said in a statement that it was an improvement over the past several quarters.

Revenue at stores open at least a year declined 6.4% internationally, stung by softness in China and Canada.

Total revenue for the holiday period fell slightly to $12.8 billion from $12.9 billion.
Global PC Shipments Decline 6.4%

USA Today reports Global PC shipments fall 6.4% to 89.8 million in 4Q
Desktop and laptop sales in the fourth quarter fell 6.4% from a year earlier to 89.8 million, affirming the PC market's gradual decline throughout 2012, according to an industry report released Friday.

With consumers steering more of their tech budgets to tablets and smartphones, "the PC market continued to take a back seat to competing devices and sustained economic woes," says the IDC, which compiles the data via its Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

The 4th-quarter tumble also exceeded IDC's forecast of a 4.4% decline for the October-December period, and marks the first time in more than five years that the PC market has seen a year-on-year decline during the holiday season, its report noted.

Underscoring the PC's market's sustained weakness for much of last year, IDC also said 2012 sales worldwide fell 3.2% to 352.4 million.

In the U.S., PC sales were 4.5% lower in the fourth quarter, contributing to a decline of 7% in 2012.

While the current economic conditions that drive consumers' penny-pinching plays a role in sluggish PC demand, companies are also stretching their resources to design and market newly emerging portable devices, including tablets, smartphones that function like tablets, and ultrabooks.

Windows 8, a new operating system by Microsoft released late last year, stirred some new interest in PCs as it allowed PC makers to design and introduce computers with a touch display. But lingering questions about the use of touch on Windows PCs and the lack of applications that can fully utilize the function slowed consumer spending, says the IDC report.

"Although the third quarter was focused on the clearing of Windows 7 inventory, preliminary research indicates the clearance did not significantly boost the uptake of Windows 8 systems in the fourth quarter," said IDC analyst Jay Chou. "Lost in the shuffle to promote a touch-centric PC, vendors have not forcefully stressed other features that promote a more secure, reliable and efficient user experience."
People have decided the PC they already own is quite fine. Indeed, there is no reason to upgrade and some good reasons not to.

4th Quarter GDP Estimate Reduced to .8% from 1.5%

MarketWatch reports GDP forecasts cut on wider trade deficit.
J.P.Morgan analysts cut their estimate for fourth-quarter GDP growth to an annualized 0.8% from a prior forecast of 1.5%.

"The trade deficit for the month was much wider than expected, and it now looks like net exports will subtract a few tenths from GDP growth in the fourth quarter," according to a J.P. Morgan research note. Elsewhere, Barclays analysts cut their estimate for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 1.3% from 2.0%, while analysts with Morgan Stanley cut their forecast to 0.7% from 1.5%.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. trade deficit widened in November to the highest point since April. The trade gap widened 15.8% to $48.7 billion in November.

Imports rose 3.8% to $231.3 billion, the highest level since April, while exports increased 1% to $182.6 billion. Government analysts revised the deficit in October to $42.1 billion.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $41.3 billion in November from a prior October estimate of $42.2 billion.

Silver lining

Some analysts saw a silver lining in Friday's trade report.

While trade deficits cut economic growth, the pickup in both imports and exports could also be a positive signal, according to Millan Mulraine, a macro strategist at TD Securities.

"While from a GDP perspective the surge in the real deficit is a net negative for growth, the strong gains in consumer goods could be a signal in improving domestic growth momentum — even though some of the rise could be attributed to the rebound from Sandy," Mulraine wrote in a research note.

Meanwhile, Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research, said the widening trade deficit indicates the relative strength of the U.S.
You have to be a real economic illiterate to see silver linings due to a hurricane and rising trade deficits, but such ignorance is unfortunately commonplace.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Catalonia Drafts Declaration of Sovereignty, Announces Vote of Independence, Seeks Self-Determination in 2014

Posted: 13 Jan 2013 11:09 AM PST

Via Google translate from El Pais, please consider Catalonia proclaimed "sovereign subject"
The Catalan Parliament proclaimed that Catalonia is "legal and sovereign political subject" in the vote will mark the formal start of the independence process and solemnly opened by the President of the Generalitat, Artur Mas . The Catalan House will vote on the first floor of the legislature, scheduled for the 23th, the statement called sovereignty of Catalonia, first step to call the query for self-determination in 2014.

Convergence and Union and Republican Left (ERC) yesterday closed a first draft of the text, they sent groups to a greater or lesser extent, defending the right to decide: Partit dels Socialistes (PSC), Initiative for Catalonia (ICV-EUiA ) , and d'Unitat Popular Bid (CUP ). The text is open to nuances, but CiU and ERC, a parliamentary majority, will not accept major changes.

The resolution does not set the date of the consultation, although both parties in the legislature signed agreement, have signed a commitment to hold the vote in 2014. Without the permission of the Government, the referendum is unconstitutional, so the claims and makes clear that it will look for any possible legal formula to perform: "They used all existing legal frameworks to implement the strengthening of democracy and the right to decide. "

The statement, a text of six points with a long preamble emphasizes that the Catalan government will dialogue with the state, but also makes clear that no agreement will be asked to help "the European institutions and the international community as a whole." From the query performed, CiU and ERC agree to be "scrupulously democratic" pluralism and ensuring citizens' access to all information.

This will be the fourth time that the Parliament proclaims the right to self-determination of Catalonia. But it will be the first to clearly set this right is specified in a query to proclaim independence. It is the first step in the process sovereigntist, to continue in the first half of this year with the creation of the Catalan Council of National Transition , designed to protect the process, and the opening of negotiations with the Spanish government to convene a referendum.
Declaration of Independence

Here is a translated version of the Declaration of Independence as listed in El Pais.
"Declaration of Sovereignty of the Catalan people"

"According to the democratically expressed will of the people of Catalonia, the Catalan Parliament agrees to declare the democratic sovereignty of the people of Catalonia as a political and legal, initiating the process to make the exercise of the right to decide how implementation of the right to self-determination of peoples, and to enforce the will of Catalonia form a new state within the European framework in accordance with the following principles:

1. Sovereignty. The people of Catalonia have, for reasons of democratic legitimacy, political subject matter of legal and sovereign.

2. Democratic legitimacy. The process of exercising the right to decide will scrupulously democratic, especially ensuring the plurality of choices and respect for all, through deliberation and dialogue within Catalan society with the aim that the pronouncement where the end result is the majority expression of the popular will.

3. Transparency. Shall be provided all the tools necessary for the whole population and Catalan society has all the information and knowledge necessary for the exercise of the right to decide and encourage its participation in the process.

4. Dialogue. Was bet on dialogue and negotiation with the Spanish government, the European institutions and the international community as a whole.

5. Europe. Was defend and promote the founding principles of the European Union, particularly the fundamental rights of citizens, democracy, commitment to the welfare state, solidarity between the different territories of the Union and the commitment to economic progress, social and cultural.

6. Legality. Was used all existing legal frameworks to implement the strengthening of democracy and the right to choose. "
Commitment to the Welfare State

Not sure if this is a translation issue but I could not help but laugh at the phrase in point number 5 promising a "commitment to the welfare state".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

SEO Blog

SEO Blog


3 Case Studies: How Financial Industry Utilizes Social Media

Posted: 12 Jan 2013 09:21 PM PST

There has been an increased awareness within the highly regulated financial industry that social media can be used for marketing and connecting with customers. An ever-increasing number of brokerage firms and investment companies are jumping on the social media bandwagon by joining sites like Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn. Here are...
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4 Super-Aggressive Link Building Strategies You Should Know About

Posted: 12 Jan 2013 09:10 PM PST

Did I say super-aggressive? What I really meant was Black-Hat but you get the point. The reality is, if there is evil going on in SEO and you are competing against that evil… you need to at least know about it. Because what you don’t know can hurt you in...
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Sunday Exclusive | Top 10 Tours & Travel Sites

Posted: 12 Jan 2013 08:47 PM PST

Whenever you plan for a 'Tour or Travel' suddenly you found yourself  worried for too many things i.e. booking tickets, finding a hotel, looking for local taxis/car etc. Either you will have to call a travel agent or manage all the things by yourself. But nowadays internet being o popular...
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Seth's Blog : For truly important problems

 

For truly important problems

You know something is important when you're willing to let someone else take the credit if that's what it takes to get it done.



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