marți, 5 martie 2013

SEO Blog

SEO Blog


Why Easy Guest Blogging Is Bad Guest Blogging

Posted: 05 Mar 2013 06:27 AM PST

Guest blogging is easy, right? All you have to do is come up with a Google operator search which features a relevant keyword and something like “inurl:guest post” and you’ll have hundreds of prospects to evaluate. And you will. But more likely than not you’ll find most of them are...
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What Kind of Phone Do You Need? A Market Overview

Posted: 05 Mar 2013 06:23 AM PST

When it comes to choosing a new mobile phone it has to be down to your own personal choice. Not everyone has the same taste in handsets or the same needs and for this reason most manufacturers offer a wide range of handsets. If you are a businessman and you...
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Online Surveys Are A Great Way To Make Quick Money And Give Opinions

Posted: 05 Mar 2013 12:03 AM PST

It is morning. You've just drunk your first cup of coffee of the day. You walk to your mailbox. Along with today's paper there is a stack of letters. You flip through them and you realize that one of them is a check. But you don't remember having done anything...
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Get Passive Traffic with Your Blog’s Existing Content

Posted: 04 Mar 2013 10:20 PM PST

There is a great traffic building strategy that most bloggers never try: Instead of worrying about writing new posts to get new traffic, worry about using your old posts better to get more traffic. There is no reason to banish your old posts to the archives, and let them get...
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When It Comes to Analytics, Are You Doing Enough?

When It Comes to Analytics, Are You Doing Enough?


When It Comes to Analytics, Are You Doing Enough?

Posted: 04 Mar 2013 06:12 PM PST

Posted by JoannaLord

We all know analytics are important. As marketers, we spend a great deal of time in the data. We all, hopefully, consider ourselves part analyst in many ways. At the foundation of a good marketing team, there is an accessible analytics platform that is set up to provide actionable insights. We should always feel that the data is just a log in away. We should feel we have the data to make great recommendations, troubleshoot issues, and forecast our efforts accurately. We should all feel totally in control of our analytics, and use them daily.

But then unicorns jump out of pink clouds and fly around our heads, because that is simply not the case. Ever.

Maybe a handful of you work on teams that are doing all they can do as it relates to analytics. Maybe some of you have even staffed your team with a handful of full-time analysts. More likely, you may all be trying to use data in your jobs, but not doing it as thoroughly or as effectively as you wish you were.

So let's talk about that. Let's talk about the different types of analytics and common places to start with them. I believe the number one reason marketing teams aren't as data-driven as they should be is because data is intimidating. However, knowledge trumps intimidation. The more you know, the more comfortable you will be to put on that analyst hat. And analyst hats are cool. So let's jump in.


What are the different types of analytics?

The goal of all data analytics is to leave us more educated than before so we can perform better in the future. Sounds simple, right? Well, not really. A common misconception among marketers is that all analysis is equal, which isn't exactly the truth. There are actually three types of analytics; predictive, prescriptive, and descriptive. Most marketers spend the majority, if not all, of their time on only one of them: descriptive. As you can imagine, that leaves a lot of awesome data and innovation on the table.

Let's run through the three and talk through the differences...

Descriptive analytics:

Descriptive analytics is when we data mine our historical performance for insights. Often, we are just looking to get context or tell a story with the data. This is most certainly at the heart of what most marketers do on a daily basis, particularly in their web analytics. We look at how we are doing, and we try to understand what is happening and how that is affecting everything else.

Typical questions include: "How did that campaign do?" "What sort of performance did we see last quarter?" "How did that site's down time affect other performance KPIs?"

Predictive analytics: 

Predictive analytics takes that one step further. It's less about the questions, and more about the suggestions. It involves looking at your historical data, and coming up with predictions on what to expect next. This is most readily used in our industry when we try to predict how next month will perform based on this month's performance (month over month predictions or MoM). While it seems like an obvious next step for analysis, it's amazing to me just how many marketers stop at descriptive, and fail to push into this arena of predictive analytics. Often, it's because this involves predictive modeling which can, again, be very intimidating.

Typical statements include: "Based on the last few months of data and our consistent growth, we can expect to increase another 25%," or, "Knowing our seasonal drop trend, we can expect to slow down by 10% in the next 6 weeks."

Prescriptive analytics:

This is where things can get fun. Prescriptive analytics takes forecasting and predictions a step further. With prescriptive analytics, you automatically mine data sets, and apply business rules or machine learning so you can make predictions faster and subsequently prescribe a next move. Marketers tend not to think of this "as their responsibility." That is for someone else to think about and solve. I think that is a super dangerous mindset, given we are on the hook for hitting the company's business KPIs. Prescriptive analytics can be a very powerful catalyst for success at a company. 

Typical questions include: "What if we could predict when customers leave us before they do, what could we surface prior to that to change their minds?" "What if we can predict when they are ripe for a second purchase and suggest it along side other products?" "What if we can predict what they would be most likely to share with a friend, how would we surface that?"


So, are you doing enough?

I ask this because somewhere along the way, marketers began to believe that descriptive analytics was our job, and "that other stuff" was for someone else to figure out. At SEOmoz, we are working hard to have each team working on all three types of data analysis in a variety of capacities. It's not easy. There is a stereotype out there that you have to break through. Data can be fun. It can be accessible, and it can be part of everyone's job. In fact, it really should be.

Imagine this for a second: just think about how much could get done if every team felt empower to tell a story with the data, make predictions off of it, and then brainstormed ways to operationalize that data to prescribe next steps for the biggest gains.

That is what being an analyst means and I believe we are all becoming more of an analyst as this industry continues to evolve. The platforms out there make it easier than ever, and the competition is more intense then ever. Why not be part of something more than just telling a story with the data? Why not suggest the next move? Why not create crazy ways to use the data? I think it's time we all put our analyst hat back on and had a little fun with it.

Hopefully, breaking down the types of analytics above is a great reminder that there is more than just descriptive analytics. At the very least, you can share with your team to inspire them to do more with the data in front of them. Best of luck to you fellow data lovers!


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All the President's Picks

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
 

All the President's Picks

Yesterday, President Obama announced three new nominees for his Cabinet: Ernest Moniz as Energy Secretary, Gina McCarthy as EPA Administrator, and Sylvia Mathews Burwell as Director of the Office of Management and Budget.

So who are they? Find out about the President's picks.

President Barack Obama announces the nominations of, from left, Ernest Moniz as Energy Secretary, Gina McCarthy as Environmental Protection Agency Administrator, and Sylvia Mathews Burwell as Director of the Office of Management and Budget, in the East Room of the White House, March 4, 2013. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

President Barack Obama announces the nominations of, from left, Ernest Moniz as Energy Secretary, Gina McCarthy as Environmental Protection Agency Administrator, and Sylvia Mathews Burwell as Director of the Office of Management and Budget, in the East Room of the White House, March 4, 2013. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

Hanging Out with First Lady Michelle Obama
Mrs. Obama joins a virtual conversation about Let’s Move!, her initiative to ensure our nation’s kids grow up healthy and reach their full potential.

President Obama Holds First Cabinet Meeting of Second Term
The President welcomed new Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew and new Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel to his Cabinet.

Helping Military Families Protect Themselves from Buyer's Remorse
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau offers tips to help servicemembers avoid buyer's remorse when making big financial decisions.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

10:15 AM: The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

11:00 AM: The President meets with senior advisors

12:45 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

2:05 PM: The President departs the White House en route to Bethesda, Maryland

2:20 PM: The President arrives in Bethesda, Maryland

2:35 PM: The President visits the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center

4:10 PM: The President departs Bethesda, Maryland en route to the White House

4:25 PM: The President arrives at the White House  

5:00 PM: The President and the Vice President meet with Secretary of Defense Hagel

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

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Seth's Blog : Understanding local media

 

Understanding local media

Local media was an essential business for a century, largely for three reasons:

1. Broadcast signals and newspaper trucks could only travel so far, so 'local' was the natural category.

2. Commerce (and thus advertising) was local.

3. Interests tended to align locally as well.

Today, of course, the signal travels around the world, so newspapers, radio stations and TV have no incentive to limit themselves.

Commerce too.

And finally, we're discovering that when given the chance, people are a lot more interested in what they're interested in, as opposed to what their physical neighbors are doing.

Going forward, then, the real kings of media will be local in a totally different sense. They will be the narrators and arbiters of interest for groups that actually have aligned interests. The daily newspaper for families wrestling with juvenile diabetes, or bi-weekly email op ed for the pop music industry. If one of those categories happens to be, "lives in zip code 10706," that's just fine, but it's an exception, not the default.

Many of these categories are in flux, available to an adroit, remarkable, generous media mini-mogul who wants to lead.


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luni, 4 martie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


The Fatter the Cat, the Louder the Howl

Posted: 04 Mar 2013 01:25 PM PST

Bloomberg reports Swiss Voters Approve Limits on 'Fat Cat' Executive Pay
Swiss voters approved some of the world's toughest limits on executives' pay in a referendum, a move critics say could make Switzerland less attractive to multinational corporations. The initiative against "fat cats," proposed by Thomas Minder, head of a herbal toothpaste company, was backed by 67.9 percent of the voters today, the government said on its website today.

The proposal gives shareholders an annual ballot on managers' pay. It eliminates sign-on bonuses, as well as severance packages and extra incentives for completing merger transactions. The initiative also includes rules punishing executives who violate the terms with as long as three years in jail.

How much executives take home was called into question in Switzerland after the country's biggest bank, UBS AG (UBSN), had to be bailed out during the financial crisis, while in 2010 Credit Suisse (CSGN) CEO Dougan received 71 million francs ($76 million) of shares. That compares with a gross average Swiss monthly wage of $7,800 for 2011, according to UN statistics.
Fat Cats Respond

  • Economiesuisse, a business lobby which had campaigned against the proposal, said "the result is a "negative signal for Switzerland as a place for doing business."
  • Nestle CEO Bulcke said the plan Switzerland less attractive to corporations and managers.
  • At least five of Europe's 20 highest-paid chief executive officers work for Swiss companies: Credit Suisse Group AG CEO Brady Dougan, ABB Ltd. (ABBN)'s Joe Hogan and Joe Jimenez of Novartis AG. (NOVN) Roche Holding AG (ROG)'s chief Severin Schwan and Nestle SA (NESN)'s Paul Bulcke are also in the top tier.
  • Offshore drilling contractor Transocean Ltd. (RIG) and oilfield service company Weatherford International Ltd. (WFT) choose Switzerland as their base. It's safe to count those companies in the opposition list.

Unsurprisingly, the fatter the cat, the greater the opposition to "fat cat laws". However, that does not address the primary question at hand.

Is Executive Pay a Problem?

Before finding solutions, we must first understand the problem. Is executive pay a problem?

The answer (that too few see) is executive pay is a "symptom of a problem" not the "real" problem.

Three Real Problems

  1. Fractional reserve lending
  2. Central bank "too big to fail" policies
  3. Government spending out of control

Want to rein in excesses at corporations? Then fix the real problems and the executive pay problem will mostly take care of itself.

For further discussion, please see


Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Car Sales Plunge 10% in Germany, 12% in France, 17% in Italy; US Plunge Coming Up

Posted: 04 Mar 2013 10:17 AM PST

European bulls lauding the message "the worst is behind" received another dose of reality today. Data shows German car sales plunge as Europe's auto crisis deepens.
New car sales in Germany fell by more than 10 percent year-on-year in February, signaling the crisis for Europe's auto makers is deepening as recession-hit consumers curb spending. New car sales in the region dropped to a 17-year low in 2012.

Speaking ahead of the industry meeting in Geneva, the sales chief of General Motors' (GM.N) Opel brand said car sales for the whole of Europe might fall by as much as 10 percent this year.

Until recently, industry executives have been penciling in a decline of around 3-5 percent for Europe's car market in 2013. The market shrank 7.8 percent last year.

Germany continues to outperform markets such as France and Italy, where car registrations tumbled 12 percent and 17 percent respectively in February. German car sales fell 2.9 percent in 2012, including a 16 percent drop in December.
Gee Who Coulda Thunk?

"Until recently, industry executives have been penciling in a decline of around 3-5 percent."

Flashback, July 09, 2012: Global Collapse In Auto Sales Coming Up.
Employee of German Manufacturer Robert Bosch Responds
Hi Mish,

Love your blog. I've written before.

I work for Robert Bosch in Germany. We make diesel injectors for common rail systems (truck and passenger car).

Our sales forecasts are again down and there is a huge crunch now to save money to try to squeeze out a profit at the end of the year. Sales are down 10% to business plan so they are looking for every dime right now.

The retiring CEO (Franz Fehrenbach...a good man) wishes for a "black 0" at the end of the year. However, I doubt that will happen.

Numerous older people have been given incentives to leave the company before official retirement age.

There are numerous closure days still planned. I would guess we can expect more.

So what you are seeing in the PMI is reality. I do not see or hear similar hints in the rest of the German economy yet......

Regards,

Name Withheld by Mish
One did not have to hear from an employee of Bosch, the world's largest supplier of automotive components, to make that forecast.

All one had to do is think. Italy and Spain were in severe recessions and France was clearly headed there (thanks in part to the nonsensical policies of French president Francois Hollande).

With that backdrop, precisely what countries were German exporters supposed to export to?

Throw Away Your Sunglasses

Don't expect much in the way of US auto exports with Europe in severe recession, and China slowing significantly.

Some forecast increasing US sales based on pent-up auto demand from kids. I see the end of the line as the US is back in recession.

There still are few jobs for kids out of college, the 2% payroll tax restoration will take a bite out of disposable income, retiring boomers don't need new cars, and changing social attitudes towards kids are such that kids do not want the debt their parents had (nor do they have the love affair with cars their parents had).

The jobless recovery is over and the future is dim enough that people can throw away their sunglasses for a lengthy spell.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Michael Pettis on Misguided European Optimism

Posted: 03 Mar 2013 11:42 PM PST

Via Email, Michael Pettis author of "The Great Rebalancing" (see "Great Rebalancing" Book Review: Two Thumbs Up) dispels the myth that Spain and peripheral Europe are on a sustainable rebalancing path relative to Germany.

Pettis writes ...
Several euro-optimists have pointed out that unit labor costs in Spain have dropped substantially relative to Germany, by as much as 6 or 7 percentage points. This whole reform process is working, they claim, and if we can just wait it out another year or two Spain will be fully competitive again.

I am not so sure. Although I agree that there have been real economic reforms, I am a lot less sanguine about the ability of these reforms to stave off the crisis. First, the reforms have come at a huge social cost, and it isn't obvious that people can suffer much longer as they already have. After all we know how to force down unit labor costs. It is really quite easy. High unemployment usually does the trick.

The problem is that Spain, after four years of punishingly high unemployment, has only clawed back in labor competitiveness about one-third of what it needs to claw back in total, and Madrid has already picked most of the low hanging fruit. As brutally difficult as this has been, this was the easy part. For Spain to claw back other 10-15 percentage points in unit labor costs, and it may need more, may well be beyond the capacity of the population to endure.

Second, labor is only one factor in international competitiveness. Capital is the other, and everyone is in a hurry to forget this. It is hard to calculate the appropriate trade-off, but while relative labor costs in Spain have certainly declined, the relative cost of capital has just as certainly risen, and probably by a lot more (to the extent that businesses can even get capital)

Some people might argue – and do – that the sharp contraction in Spain's current account deficit, from 5% of GDP in 2008 to around 1% today, shows that Spain has indeed become more competitive, but this of course isn't at all obvious. Much of the "improvement" seems to have occurred because of a drop in imports, which suggests greater export competitiveness hasn't played much of a role.

Unemployment levels well above 15-20% (and I assume official unemployment of 26% is probably overstated by the failure to account for the "black" economy) are an incredibly effective way of forcing a trade deficit to contract, because when people can't buy anything, they also can't buy tradable goods. As they stop purchasing those tradable goods however these goods would necessarily have been diverted to exports, even without any improvement in the country's overall competitiveness. This might imply that whatever increase in exports we have seen may be no more than the export of goods that Spaniards used to buy but no longer can. This kind of export performance is not a consequence of improved competitiveness. It is simply a consequence of rising unemployment.

What's more, if Spain is ever going to repay its very rapidly rising debt, it needs a lot more than a lower trade deficit. In order to repay its debt, Spain needs a very high current account surplus, and given Spain's huge interest burden, this actually means it needs a whopping trade surplus since the trade surplus has to exceed the interest outflows before it can be used to pay down debt. If unemployment is the best tool to get us there, I am not sure the Spanish population can bear the burden needed to get us the necessary high trade surplus.

So in spite of the good news in the Spanish bond markets, I still don't think we can pop the champagne corks. Except for the debt refinancing costs, the underlying fundamentals have not gotten better in the last six months. At best they are unchanged, and probably they are worse.

How long must Spain hold on to prove how serious it is about staying the course? A lot longer, I think. After all it wasn't until around 1931-32 that France began suffering from its membership in the gold bloc, but they doggedly held on until 1936 when they finally threw in the towel and devalued. The Spaniards are proving tougher than the French were, possibly because among the older generation (although not so much the younger) there is a tremendous residual worry (and shame) that Spain might not truly be European, and this is creating much of the loyalty to Europe, of which the euro is the great symbol.

But the Spanish still have a lot of pain to absorb. By the way if we were to see an intensification of the debate in France about the euro, I suspect that this will give a green light to Spanish public intellectuals, for whom France is the North Star, to discuss the prospect themselves. Until then, in Spain you are not really supposed to talk about abandoning the euro if you want to be taken seriously. It is a little like England in the 1920s, when for much of the policymaking elite abandoning the country's free trade principles and leaving gold were unmentionable – until many years of unemployment suddenly made both policies very "mentionable" in the first years of the 1930s.

In my opinion the happy bond markets are, as they have so often been under similar circumstances in history, a little premature. I think the phrase "there is light at the end of the tunnel" was popularized by Herbert Hoover around 1931, when the US stock markets staged a strong rally, convincing him and others that the crisis was over. Of course it wasn't, and the buoyant markets gave back everything and more over the next three years.
Investment Ideas for Unconventional Times

Michael Pettis will be a speaker at an economic conference I am hosting on April 5th in Sonoma, California.

For conference details, please see Wine Country Conference.

World-class speakers at the conference include John Hussman, Michael Pettis, Jim Chanos, John Mauldin, Mike "Mish" Shedlock, and Chris Martenson.

Yahoo! Finance Joins the Conference

I'm pleased to announce that Yahoo! Finance is joining the conference as our media partner. The wonderful Lauren Lyster, of Yahoo! Finance's Daily Ticker, will be moderating several of the panels for the day.

This is an experience not to be missed. The access you will have to these speakers and their insights doesn't happen easily. This is the first time many of these speakers have ever appeared together.

The event is made possible in part by a generous $100,000 matching grant by the John P. Hussman Foundation for the benefit of ALS Research.

For my personal experiences with ALS, please see My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs.

Hope to see you at the conference.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com