Central Perk

marți, 9 aprilie 2013

How Do You Know If Your Data is Accurate? A case study using search volume, CTR, and rankings

Posted: 08 Apr 2013 07:18 PM PDT

Big Data and analytics has been called the "next big thing," and it can certainly make a strong case with the explosion of easily accessible, high-quality data available today. In the inbound marketing world, we have access to backlinks and anchor text, traffic and click stream data, search volume and click through rate (CTR), social media metrics, and many more. There is huge value in this data, if we can unlock it.

But, there's a problem: real world data is messy, and processing it can be tricky. How do we know if our data is accurate, or if we can trust our final conclusions? If we want to use this data to find a better way to do marketing, we have to be careful about accuracy.

There are no hard and fast rules when it comes to data analysis. There are some best practices, but even these can get a little murky. The most important thing to do is to put on your detective cap and dive into the data. The more familiar you are with the data, the easier it is to spot something that seems strange. More than likely, your findings will be quality issues that need to be improved.

Throughout this post, we will use a data set from Google Webmaster Tools of keyword search referrals as a case study. Here's a snippet of the data:

We also put all of our keyword analysis code on Github so you can run our analysis on your own site's data.

The rest of this post discusses six best practices and suggestions for ensuring your data and results are accurate. Enjoy!

1. Separate data from analysis, and make analysis repeatable

It is best practice to separate the data and the process that analyzes the data. This also makes it possible to repeat the analysis on different data, either by you or by someone else. For this reason, most data scientists don't use Excel since it couples the data with analysis and makes it difficult to repeat. Instead, they often use a high-level statistical oriented scripting language, like R, Matlab/Octave, SAS, or a general-purpose language like Python.

At Moz, the data science team uses Python. Our Big Data team also uses it heavily, which makes it easy to integrate our algorithms with their production code.

2. If possible, check your data against another source

In many cases this step may be impossible, but if you can, it's the best way to make sure you data is accurate. In Moz's case, we were able to check the Google Webmaster Tools data against data from Google Analytics.

Some pieces to focus on when you're comparing data include total aggregate counts, counts in sub-categories, or averages. In our case, we checked both the total search visits and spot check the number of visits for a few different keywords.

3. Get down and dirty with the data

This is the fun part where we get to play with the data and do some exploratory data analysis. A good place to start is by looking at the raw data to see what jumps out. In the case of the Google Webmaster Tools data, I noticed that they don't always give the search volume in long-tail cases with only a few searches. Instead, the data has "<10" or "-" instead of numbers that will need to be handled carefully since they will result in missing values.

This is also the time to put on your detective cap and start asking questions about the data. We looked at some keywords like "seomoz" and "page authority" that are branded, and some like "author rank" and "schema testing tool" that are not. After checking out the data, I asked myself, "Hmmm, I wonder if there is any difference in Click through rate between branded and non-branded keywords, or in average search position?"

Usually by this point I'm amped to start answering hard questions, but I try to resist the temptation to jump off the deep end until I run a few more sanity checks. Univariate analysis is a great tool to help you check yourself before going too far, especially since most software packages provide an easy way to do it and it often produces the first interesting results. The idea is to get a picture of what each variable "looks like" by plotting a histogram and calculating things like the mean.

The above chart shows an example of univariate analysis on our data. In each panel, we have plotted the distribution of one of the four variables in our data: Impressions, Average Position, Clicks, and CTR. We also included the mean of each distribution in the title. Immediately, we can see a few interesting comparisons.

First, almost all of our keywords are "long-tail" with less then 100 searches/month. However, much of our traffic is also made up from a few high-volume keywords (>1000 searches/month). The average position is concentrated in the top 10 as expected (since results off the first page send very little traffic). This is also good check of our data. If we had seen a significant amount of keywords sending traffic at ranks lower then #10, we should investigate further. Finally, the CTR in the lower right is interesting. Most of the keywords have CTR less then 40%, but we do have a few high volume keywords with much higher CTR.

By now, I usually feel pretty comfortable with the data and can jump in. At this point, I've found that asking specific questions is often the most productive way to answer bigger questions, but everyone works differently, so you'll need to find what works best for you. In the case of the Google Webmaster Tools data, I'm curious about the impact of branded vs non-branded keywords.

One way to examine this is to segment the data and then repeat the univariate analysis for each segment. Here's the plot for impressions:

We can see that, overall, branded keywords have a higher search volume then non-branded words (means of 380 and 160, respectively). It gets more interesting if we look at average position and CTR:

We see a huge difference in Average Position and CTR between the branded and non-branded words. Most of our traffic from branded words is in the top two or three positions, with non-branded queries sending traffic throughout the top 10. The CTR is also significantly different with a few branded keywords having very high CTR (60%+).

We might also wonder about how the CTR changes with the search position. We expect that lower-ranking keywords will have a lower CTR. Can we see this in the data?

Indeed, the CTR drops off rapidly after the top five. There is an interesting bump up at position 15, but this is a data sparse region so this may not be a real signal.

4. Unit test your code (where it makes sense)

This is a software development best practice, but can get a little sticky in the data science world and often requires judgement on your part. Unit testing everything is a great way to catch many problems, but it will really slow you down. It's a good idea to use unit test code that you think will be used again, has a general purpose outside the specific project, or has complicated enough logic that it would be easy to get wrong. It's often not worthwhile to test code quickly written to check an idea.

In the case of the Google Webmaster Tools data, we decided to test the process that reads the data and fills missing values because the logic is somewhat complicated, but didn't test our code to generate the plots since it was relatively simple. We used a small, synthetic data set to write the tests since it is easy to manage. Check out some of our tests here.

5. Document your process

This step can be annoying, but you will thank yourself a few months later when you need to revisit it. Documentation also communicates your thoughts to others who can check and validate your logic.

In our case, this blog post documents our process, and we provide some additional documentation in the README in the code.

6. Get feedback from others

Peer review is one of the cornerstones of the academic world, and other people's insight is almost always beneficial to improving your analysis. Don't hesitate to ask your team for feedback; most of the time, they'll be happy to give it!

Do you have any other helpful testing tips? What has worked for you and your team? I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments below!

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Victims of Gun Violence Deserve a Vote

Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Victims of Gun Violence Deserve a Vote

Yesterday President Obama traveled to Connecticut, where he spoke with families of children and teachers of the tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary. He reiterated that we have not forgotten our promise to help prevent future tragedies and reduce gun violence in our country -- and that now more than ever we need to act:

"Now is the time to get engaged. Now is the time to get involved. Now is the time to push back on fear, and frustration, and misinformation. Now is the time for everybody to make their voices heard from every state house to the corridors of Congress."

President Barack Obama and Jillian Soto exit Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Md., April 8, 2013. Soto is the sister of Victoria Soto, a first-grade teacher who was killed during the Sandy Hook Elementary School shootings. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

How to approach journalists for your SEO

How to approach journalists for your SEO

Posted: 08 Apr 2013 06:13 AM PDT

A link from a high-authority news website can do wonders for SEO. But do you know how to appeal to journos?

The boundaries between SEO and PR are becoming increasingly blurred. In fact, for many small businesses, any PR work is carried out by their SEO team or agency.

Links from top news websites and popular bloggers are incredibly valuable online. But do you know how to get positive press mentions?

We've been speaking to a journalist who regularly writes for high-authority news websites, including Yahoo! UK and the MailOnline. What are her tips for getting mentions – and even links – in the press?

Attracting press attention

Pitch actual news stories

No journalist wants to give you free publicity – advertorial doesn't sell papers or mean website clicks. So you need to pitch actual stories, such as research you've conducted or analysis of interesting sales figures, not just 'news' of your 'great new product'.

"I get between 10 and 20 press releases in my inbox every day," our insider explains. "About half of those are simply non-stories. They contain 'news' that shouldn't go beyond the company newsletter and certainly won't be interesting to journalists."

Her advice is to look for an interesting angle to the story you want to publicise. For example, if you make chocolate and sales have increased, that's not a particularly interesting story. But if you can show that sales rose following a bad news story, then that's far more interesting – 'Brits turn to chocolate to beat economy blues'.

Offer proof

Your press releases or pitches can't just be 'we think x'. Journalists need some supporting figures, even if they're just to prove to their editors that the story has legs.

"It's not as if we need a massive report," says our journalist, "just something to support the story. Sometimes that can be sales figures, like a surge in sales for a particular product, but it also might be a case study. For example, a popular website that sells second-hand music gave me a case study about a man who'd made £4,000 for Christmas selling off his old vinyl. They had a hugely positive mention and I had a great festive finance story."

Don't underestimate the value of your corporate data and market trends – these can support interesting stories and gain you valuable press attention.

Build press relationships

Don't bombard journalists with press releases if they've never heard of you. Look for writers who have an interest in your field and woo them online. Follow them on Twitter, retweet their stories, and engage with them whenever you can.

If the company budget allows it, take a few high-value journalists out for a drink or a meal. They'll be far more likely to listen to your pitches if they know you.

Our insider adds: "I often get emailed press releases where the company hasn't even bothered to spell my name correctly. It makes me much less likely to read their release."

Pick the right time to approach them

Unless your news is time sensitive, think carefully about the best time to contact a journalist. Last thing on a Friday afternoon isn't a great idea, for example.

Look at when the journalist most commonly publishes so you can avoid ringing them too close to a deadline.

Our insider says: "I remember working in a busy newsroom during a really important speech from the PM. Everyone in the country was watching it but some pain of a PR was phoning around every journalist in the room in turn. None of us ran his story."

Call the right writer

Is your story best suited to a tech journalist? A lifestyle writer? A fashion specialist? Don't waste your time or theirs by contacting someone who can't carry your story. Look up previous articles and coverage if you're not sure who's best.

Receiving press attention

It's impossible to predict when the press might be interested in you. You might be a small company importing plant food when suddenly Radio 4 wants to talk to someone about teens accessing dangerous chemicals from abroad.

Having a popular Twitter and blogging presence will really increase the likelihood that they choose you; if you already look like an industry authority then you add authority to a news report.

If a journalist contacts you, here are some points to remember.

Respond fast

We asked our journalist insider what the single most important thing to remember is when dealing with the press. Her answer? "Act fast!"

She explains: "Most journalists, and even bloggers, are working to incredibly tight deadlines. They are probably ringing around a number of businesses like yours, meaning the first one to reply gets the mention.

"So often I have companies call back or tweet me a week or more after I contacted them. By that point the article has been published and I'm working on something else. If I remember the company at all, it will be to make sure I don't waste time on them again."

Don't be too suspicious

Whenever a survey of the least-trusted professions is carried out, journalists rank about as well as politicians. As a nation, we don't trust them. But you need them for SEO-friendly PR!

Our journalist insider says: "I was recently writing a good news story about businesses that were thriving despite the recession. Yet a number of the companies I phoned were really suspicious of my motives – one had a receptionist who was downright hostile. Because of that one member of staff, they missed out on some really positive publicity."

Be cautious, yes. Consider your words carefully and ask if you can reply by email if you want more time to think your comments through. Make sure you understand exactly what story they are after before you agree to help.

But don't assume that all journalists want to make you look bad. Most often they just need expert comment or a case study.

Don't ask for too much

Of course you want a link or a product mention, but the journalist only cares about the story. Ask for too much and they might just go elsewhere.

"I understand that you want a link and that it's probably the only reason you're talking to me," agrees our insider. "But sometimes my editor won't allow it – but the brand mention is still good publicity and worth having.

"In the past, I've ditched case studies because the company has demanded the right to edit my article before it's published, or insisted that I include a positive mention of a specific product. I'm not some sort of freebie copywriter and only my editor gets to amend my articles."

Of course, if you have a really valuable or unique story then it's worth offering it first to the publication that will give you the most. Just be realistic about what your story is worth.

Respect bloggers

Most smaller websites are unlikely to get a huge amount of press attention from major news sites. Quite often, journalists will simply run an internet search for the kind of spokesperson or case study they need, meaning those that rank highest for the most competitive keywords are likely to get the mention.

However, bloggers may have more time and a wider industry network, meaning you're more likely to be approached by them, or to succeed in pitching a story.

Because they are more specialist a link from a blogger's website can often be extraordinarily useful in terms of SEO. So it's essential to respect bloggers and be as polite, timely, and helpful as you would to a journalist.

Have you dealt with the press? Did you get a link? Is all publicity good publicity? Share your thoughts with us and other readers using the comments below.

Seth's Blog : First, do no harm--three rules for public interfaces

First, do no harm--three rules for public interfaces

When we think of design, we usually imagine things that are chosen because they are designed. Vases or comic books or architecture...

It turns out, though, that most of what we make or design is actually aimed at a public that is there for something else. The design is important, but the design is not the point. Call it "public design"...

Public design is for individuals who have to fill out our tax form, interact with our website or check into our hotel room despite the way it's designed, not because of it.

In the quest to make it work better, look better or become more powerful, sometimes we do precisely the wrong thing, because we forget about the 'public' part of public design. If the user isn't focused or interested in the innovation of our design, we have an obligation to get out of the way.

Rule 1: The more often a device is used by first-time users, the more standardized the interface should be.

For example, the shower in a hotel. Some of the most elegant, clever design ever created by man exists in the dials and wheels in the hotel shower. All of it is worse than a waste--it's dangerous and time-consuming. Guests don't want to learn a new way to turn on the shower, they don't want to burn themselves, they just want the water to come out, at the right temperature, in the right direction, with the right quantity. The first time.

Rule 2: Who gets left out is the most important question.

Small ramps are better than a few stairs, given the choice. The more of the public we include, by definition, the better the choice.

Everyone takes a shower without their glasses, and yet the little, indistinguishable bottles in the shower often have 12 point type describing what's inside. No, I'm not going to wear reading glasses in the shower.

If the disabled, the elderly, or those without the latest browser can't use what you've created, it doesn't deserve to be in public.

Rule 3: The best interface is no interface.

Great design tells a story. It moves a product from one category to another, increases yield, creates efficiencies and most of all, adds beauty to the interaction.

But it doesn't have to shout. Or confuse. The pro user, the individual who chose your design because it is something she wants to use every day--this user appreciates the power and the beauty you've created. But in public, for the infrequent passerby, do not call attention to what you've built. We have other things to do. The best designer understands what's important.

Don't abdicate the responsibility for great public design. Do not settle for inefficient, banal or ugly. But at the same time, respect the rules. Anyone can grandstand, but it takes real skill to do great public design that works. We're not looking for design we notice... no, it's design that improves the experience for the public that is the best public design.

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luni, 8 aprilie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Jim Chanos on Daily Ticker: Stay Away From U.S. Tech Firms

Posted: 08 Apr 2013 01:13 PM PDT

Here is an interview of Jim Chanos by Lauren Lyster from the Wine Country Conference. Chanos says Stay Away From U.S. Tech Firms

The Daily Ticker's Lauren Lyster sat down with Chanos, also president and managing partner of Kynikos Associates, at the 2013 Wine Country Conference in support of Les Turner ALS Foundation last week. Of course we asked him: "What are your biggest shorts?"

His response? U.S. technology.

"I've been a big bear for the last year and a half, two years, in the P.C. space," Chanos says. "I think that we are seeing a secular headwind in that business as more and more people go to mobility and tablets and the cloud. The P.C.-centric space is going to increasingly see negative surprises."

Chanos cites Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell (DELL) for problems with their accounting practices.

"They spend very little on R&D and yet the companies that everyone wants to compare them to spend dramatically more on R&D thus, hurting their profitability," he notes.

Even though Dell and HP have been starting to make huge acquisitions to gain a competitive advantage, they're doing a "very bad job" at it, Chanos argues.

"I am completely mystified as to what the buyout groups at Dell are seeing here because the business from a cash flow point of view, from an accounting point of view, is deteriorating right before your eyes and yet there seems to be a number of players who think this is the greatest thing since sliced bread," Chanos says.

Chanos offers a few pointers for the average retail investor including: don't try to trade like a hedge fund.

"The deck is stacked against retail investors selling short on their own. I don't think it is generally a good policy," he says. "Just sell down your stocks to sleep at night."

Click on the link at the top to see the complete video interview with Chanos.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Germany’s Net Foreign Assets Exceed €1 Trillion; 10 Compete Failures of the Eurozone

Posted: 08 Apr 2013 10:18 AM PDT

The eurozone was supposed to equalize trade and interest rates. The Maastricht Treaty supposedly ensures the free movement of goods, capital, people and services. Tensions were supposed to drop. Instead, the eurozone has been a complete failure.

Eurozone Complete Failure

With Cyprus, there is no longer a free flow of capital. There are now Cypriot euros and other euros. Capital controls are in place.
There is one interest rate policy set by the ECB but it has been set on the basis of what is beneficial to Germany.
There are 17 different sovereign bond yield structures. In theory sovereign bonds of Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Germany, (and all the other eurozone countries as well) should all trade at the same rate. In practice here are some 10-year sovereign bond rates: Spain:4.75% Portugal:6.42% Greece:11.71% Italy 4.34% Germany 1.24%.
Tensions were supposed to drop. Yet in Greece, a neo-Nazi party is now the third largest. Separatist movements are on the rise in Spain.
Greece and Italy have had technocrat governments forced on them by Brussels.
European banks are capital impaired and massively leveraged. In Southern Europe, banks are leveraged to their own sovereign bonds.
Manufacturing imbalances abound.
There is massive unemployment in peripheral Eurozone. Youth unemployment exceeds 55% in Spain and Greece, and 38% in Italy.
Property bubbles vary in strength and intensity, country to country.
Trade imbalances are totally out of control.

Germany's Net Foreign Assets Exceed €1 Trillion

Let's take a closer look at point number 10. MarketWatch reports Germany's account surplus jumps, no one is happy.

EMU was supposed to produce economic stability. Yet, five years after the financial crisis, Europe is a cauldron of uncertainty. The sobering truth about the large current account surpluses heaped up by Germany and EMU's other prime creditor country, the Netherlands, is that Europe's monetary set-up has consistently produced much larger imbalances than those that caused the collapse of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system 40 years ago.

The record-breaking run of surpluses has propelled Germany's net foreign assets to €1,000 billion for the first time, according to latest Bundesbank figures for end-September 2012. Not that Germany's burgeoning foreign assets are generating any rejoicing in Germany. Quite the opposite.

In an astonishing turnaround in the balance sheet of Europe's largest economy, nearly 90% of the country's net foreign assets are held by the Bundesbank, in the form of its currency reserves (including gold) and, above all, the now-celebrated Target-2 loans to the European Central Bank (ECB), representing indirect claims on the weakest members of EMU.

The balance sheet transformation represents a reverse for the Bundesbank, which, after monetary union started in 1999, carried out a major effort, well out of the view of the German public, to reduce its foreign reserves (apart from gold) to make it less dependent on currency and capital market fluctuations. At end-2004, for example, the Bundesbank accounted for just €85 billion or 36% of Germany's then total net foreign assets of €234 billion.

In the ensuing eight years, the country's net foreign assets have quadrupled, but the Bundesbank's total has risen tenfold to a third-quarter 2012 total of €878 billion.

This mirrors a massive reduction of German commercial banks' exposure to foreign borrowers, led by the euro problem countries. German banks' net foreign assets fell from a peak of €520 billion at end-2008 to just €8 billion in the third quarter of last year.

Commercial assets have been replaced by official assets: the difference has been made up by the Bundesbank—which accounts for the Target-2 concern. Even though the amounts have fallen from last summer's peak, latest Target-2 figures for end-March show that the Bundesbank still is owed €589 billion under the ECB lending scheme.

What Cannot Be Paid Back, Won't

Notice the massive shrinkage of German exposure to foreign borrowers. Mario Draghi's widely hailed LTRO program provided the means for Northern Europe to unload peripheral Eurozone bonds.

Those bonds were snapped up by the likes of Spain and the result is Spanish banks are more leveraged than ever.

As politicians scramble from one panic to the next, promising that each panic is the last one, those 10 points show otherwise.

When the eurozone breaks up (and it will) a large piece of the €589 billion owed to the German central bank will blow up in smoke. What cannot be paid back, won't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

marți, 9 aprilie 2013

How Do You Know If Your Data is Accurate? A case study using search volume, CTR, and rankings

How Do You Know If Your Data is Accurate? A case study using search volume, CTR, and rankings

1. Separate data from analysis, and make analysis repeatable

2. If possible, check your data against another source

3. Get down and dirty with the data

4. Unit test your code (where it makes sense)

5. Document your process

6. Get feedback from others

Victims of Gun Violence Deserve a Vote

How to approach journalists for your SEO

How to approach journalists for your SEO