luni, 22 aprilie 2013

Seth's Blog : Is this the best you can do?

 

Is this the best you can do?

If the answer to this is "yes," and you think you're done, you might be settling too soon.

The right question is, "Is this the best your team can do?" And if you need a better team, it's never been easier to get one. Especially if you're a soloist, a freelancer or a small company--if your upside is limited by the people you're working with, get new people.

Any time you do work yourself, you've chosen not to use the services of someone who's probably better at it than you are. There might be really good reasons for that choice, but inertia isn't one of them.


More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

duminică, 21 aprilie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Graph Shows Who Is And Who Isn't Paying Their Fair Share of Taxes

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 10:39 PM PDT

In response to 55% of Americans Say Their Income Taxes are Fair; 46.6% Paid No Income Tax in 2011 one seriously misguided soul responded "your hate for low income people disturbing".

The above response was humorous because the math shows a large number of people are unhappy even though thy pay no income taxes at all. Nowhere did I state or imply any hatred of anyone.

On a far more credible note, I received an email from Ironman at the Political Calculations blog who posted this chart on "Who Really Isn't Paying Their Fair Share of Income Taxes?"



click on chart for sharper image

I asked Ironman to explain the chart. Here is his reply.
We used U.S. Census data to model the total aggregate income earned by individual Americans for each $100 increment of income in 2009 to create the "blue" income distribution bell curve using regression analysis, which we originally did as part of another project, where we modeled the total money income distribution of Americans.

We then took the Tax Policy Center's data for the percentage of tax units without income tax liability for given levels of income and modeled that as well - and in doing that, we also get the percentage of tax units that do have income tax liability over the same income range.

We then multiplied the percentage of tax units with income tax liability by the total amount of aggregate income earned within a given amount of income to determine the portion of that aggregate U.S. income that is subject to income taxes.  That result is represented as the "red"-shaded bell curve on the chart.

The unshaded region under the "blue" total aggregate income curve is then the portion of income earned by Americans that is not subject to income taxes. 

What If?

In a followup email, I asked Ironman what the result would have been, if a 100% tax on all income above $1 million been in place. To that question he replied ...

"By our calculation, the U.S. government would have taken in $800 billion more in tax revenue if it had taxed people making more than $1 million at 100 percent, according to IRS data from 2008, the year Ryan used as his base point."

Thus, even taxing people making over $1 million at a rate of 100% would not have balanced the budget. Of course, if you tax anything at 100%, you are not going to get anywhere near the amount theoretically expected.

Some might point out interest income, but others would point out disability and food stamps. Specifically, I would like to point out Unwilling to Work; 25% in Hale County AL Collect Disability, 14 Million Nationwide; A Simple Solution.

Simply put, if you pay people enough to do nothing at all, you are going to encourage a lot of fraud by people willing to do nothing.

Regardless of what you think about top income earners, the system is setup to encourage fraud and avoidance at both ends of the scale.

Who suffers? Those in the middle.

Perhaps it's time for a consumption tax, excluding food, medicine, and essential clothes. Perhaps some combination of flat income tax in conjunction with a consumption tax excluding food, medicine, and essential clothes.

My only fear in suggesting such a thing is government nearly always screws things up by implementing things in a matter that will make matters worse.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Netherlands on Edge of Economic Crisis; Unemployment Surges as Home Prices Collapse

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 12:05 PM PDT

Netherlands is underwater in more ways than one. Der Spiegel reports Underwater: The Netherlands Falls Prey to Economic Crisis
More than a decade ago, the Dutch central bank recognized the dangers of [the housing] euphoria, but its warnings went unheeded. Only last year did the new government, under conservative-liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte, amend the generous tax loopholes, which gradually began to expire in January. But now it's almost too late. No nation in the euro zone is as deeply in debt as the Netherlands, where banks have a total of about €650 billion in mortgage loans on their books.

Consumer debt amounts to about 250 percent of available income. By comparison, in 2011 even the Spaniards only reached a debt ratio of 125 percent.

The Netherlands is still one of the most competitive countries in the European Union, but now that the real estate bubble has burst, it threatens to take down the entire economy with it. Unemployment is on the rise, consumption is down and growth has come to a standstill.

Even €46 billion in austerity measures are apparently not enough to remain within the EU debt limit. Although [Dutch Finance Minister and Euro Group Chief] Jeroen Dijsselbloem has announced another €4.3 billion in cuts in public service and healthcare, they will only take effect in 2014.

"Sticking the knife in even more deeply" would be "very, very unreasonable," Social Democrat Dijsselbloem told German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, in an attempt to justify the delay.
Dijsselbloem's Hypocrisy

Note how Dijsselbloem is ready and willing to stick austerity measures of any kind on every other eurozone economy but his own.

Unemployment Surges as Home Prices Collapse

The Australia Macro Business blog picks up the story in Dutch unemployment surges as house prices fall.
Earlier this month, I posted on how the Netherlands was facing a potential economic crisis on the back a severe housing correction, whereby house prices fell by -8% in the year to December 2012 to be down -18% since prices peaked in 2008, pulling many Dutch households into negative equity (see next chart).



The release of labour force data overnight suggested the Netherlands' economy has deteriorated further, with Dutch unemployment increasing to 8.1%, a level not seen since the 1980s, with job losses most accute in the building industry (see next chart).



The jump in unemployment follows the contraction in the Dutch economy, whereby GDP has contracted by -1.2% over the past year (see next chart).



The sharp deterioration in the Dutch economy is placing pressure on the central government to abandon austerity measures, which it has pursued for the best part of two years and is partly responsible for the contraction in demand.
Best is Yet to Come

As noted, the hypocrites want austerity for everyone but themselves. Regardless, the Netherlands economy is headed for a much sharper contraction as is France.

Simply put, the entire eurozone is in deep trouble even as the nannycrats insist the worst is behind. Ironically, the best is indeed ahead, and the best is a breakup of the eurozone.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Minister of Spain's Housing Board Cites "Mortgage Scam, Illegal Evictions" Calls for Mortgage Debt Reduction

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 10:20 AM PDT

The Minister of Public Works and Housing of the Government of Andalusia, Elena Cortes Jimenez, advocates a Reduction in Mortgage Debt for All Spanish Families.

Here is a Mish-modified synopsis.

Elena Cortes Jimenez, Minister of Public Works, claims eviction proceedings lead to further drying of mortgage lending, making it harder for young people to access home ownership.

Jimenez proposes a "haircut" on private debt, in particular, mortgages.

The minister stressed that "Spain has carried out 440,000 illegal evictions due to a mortgage scam, and it is absolutely necessary to have truth, justice and reparation for these families who have been in that situation."

Jimenez once again defends the need for a restructuring of private debt. In his view, Congress of Deputies, and specifically the PP, have the "golden opportunity" to approve the initiatives on evictions and retroactive payments.

End Mish-Translated Synopsis

Good Grief!

Exactly who is supposed to pay for this "golden opportunity" to forgive debt?

Oh wait, I forgot. Spain's insolvent banks are supposed to provide the loan forgiveness.  Or was it the generous nannycrats in Brussels?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Committing to a cycle of honest communication

 

Committing to a cycle of honest communication

Is there any better way to start a business partnership? Any partnership?

If you're unable to have substantial conversations with your boss and co-workers, go get some professional help. It's not personal, it's business. 

The inability to say the thing that will make everything better (because of fear of shifting the status quo) is a project killer.


More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

sâmbătă, 20 aprilie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Italy Stalemate Broken, Napolitano, 87, Elected for Another 7-Year Term

Posted: 20 Apr 2013 06:45 PM PDT

In a move that cannot possibly solve anything Italian Lawmakers, Re-elect President to Second Term.
In a bid to quiet growing political chaos, Italian lawmakers on Saturday elected President Giorgio Napolitano to a second term, turning to him as the last best hope to break a profound deadlock.

The election of Mr. Napolitano, supported by both the main center-left and center-right parties, suggested that the two sides would now be more willing to negotiate the formation of a government. But it also infuriated the anti-establishment Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo, which won a quarter of the recent parliamentary vote.

While he cannot prevent a grand coalition, one including both major parties, from forming, Mr. Grillo could complicate matters by stirring renewed anger against the old political establishment, which is in upheaval.

After Mr. Grillo called on his supporters to take to the streets, hundreds of protesters gathered in front of the Parliament building, many holding placards in support of Five Star's candidate, Stefano Rodotà , a legal expert and former leader of the center-left, which nonetheless did not back him. Mr.dà is "not part of the old guard," said one protester, Anna Maria Vatrella, an unemployed social worker. "All the left knows how to do is to hold on to the power they have. They have no interest in change. They have no idea what it means to live as normal people do."
Pier Luigi Bersani Announces Resignation

In case you missed it late Friday Italy centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani announced resignation
Mr Bersani's move came after backers in his party voted down two candidates that he had proposed for the role of president. Late on Friday night, he accused fellow party members of betraying him, adding that there was a "tendency in some towards permanent destruction."

The centre-left's implosion is the latest reminder of how it is made up of a string of parties, from former communists to Christian democrats who have never gelled, failing to hold a government together when elected in 2006 and never mounting a truly convincing opposition to Silvio Berlusconi.

While the centre-left has stumbled since the election, former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right coalition has taken a lead in the polls. Mr Bersani's exit could allow his photogenic young rival in the Democratic Party, Matteo Renzi - who also appeals to right wing voters -- to take charge.

Yesterday, Giorgio Napolitano, the 87-year-old incumbent president, agreed to accept a mandate for a second term as a president in order to end the impasse over who should do the job. He had previously sought to avoid standing again because of his advanced age.
As I said, Bersani's days were numbered. Little did I know they would be this numbered. Now what?

Napolitano could not form a grand coalition before so why can he do so now? The only thing that has changed is Bersani is gone and the supporters of Grillo are madder than ever.

Given that both Berlusconi and Grillo have a chance at winning the next election outright, both have a reason to want new elections. Berlusconi has another objective, however, and that is coming up with any deal that avoids prosecution.

With that in mind, an unstable "grand coalition" of sorts may be temporarily possibile. If so, expect the coalition to dissolve as soon as Berlusconi gets the immunity he seeks.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Understanding German Politics

Posted: 20 Apr 2013 10:04 AM PDT

Inquiring minds in the US note the upcoming German election and may be wondering about the platforms of the major political parties. Reader Bernd from Germany explains.

Die Linke (The Left): Die Linke is made up of the former SED/PDS (The East German Communist Ruling Party), some former West German Communist and Socialist Parties and a "rebel group" of the SPD. They all have merged and are now called "Die Linke". By and large they have a communist/socialist platform, albeit not Stalinist. Their main requests are: dissolve NATO and replace it with a new organization to include Russia in it, end all wars, control or nationalize all relevant banks and some crucial industries, increase support for the poor, raise taxes for the rich (above income of 60k Euros gradually go to 75%), introduce a stiff wealth and inheritance  tax. They are pro Euro and want the introduction of Eurobonds immediately. To alleviate the economic crisis in Europe they advocate some serious deficit spending for social and work programs. They have voted against ESM; EFSF and Cyprus deal in Parliament.

SPD (Social Democrats): SPD is the grand old Social Democratic Party, with a wonderful and long tradition. SPD originated from the worker's movement. Its first party program is from 1869. It the only party that tried to stop Hitler's power grab by opposing the emergency laws in 1933. Many went to concentration camps for opposing Hitler. In post-World War II Germany SPD provided three Chancellors, Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schröder. All three Chancellors were major reformers in Germany for one or the other topic.  SPD lost its original power base in the wake of Schröder's reforms in the early 2000s. SPD is a staunch pro Euro party. They also want Eurobonds immediately, as well as a common fiscal policy, a bank union and a quick unification of Europe.

Die Grünen (The Green Party): Die Grünen started as a mix of 1968 communists/socialists and anti-nuclear energy activists in West Germany. The second part is made up of some left over former East German anti SED "rebels" who helped to bring down East Germany.  Today this is the party for so the so-called "politically correct". In Germany we call them the Latte Macchiato Moms/Dads. The typical party member is a well-paid Government official or teacher with a work week of 36 hours. They believe firmly in manmade climate change and want to tax and spend their way to eliminate the CO-2 footprint. No amount of money is too much for preventing climate change. They are staunch pro Euro advocates similar to the SPD.

Freie Demokratische Partei FDP (Free Democratic Party): originated from a mix of former liberal parties during the Weimar Republic with an originally clear idea on liberalism. The FDP once strongly supported human rights, civil liberties, and international openness, but has shifted from the center to the center-right over time. Today's main goal is to get at least 5% of the popular vote, otherwise they will have no representation in parliament. They are a coalition partner to Merkel's CDU party but most of them would be hard pressed to state why. FDP may not pass the 5% threshold in the next election. FDP states that they wish Europe to return to the "No-Bail out Clause" and the Maastricht Agreement, however, in Parliament they voted for a massive breach of both agreements, following Merkel's position.

CDU (Christian Democratic Union): CDU is a center-right, typically Catholic, typically pragmatic popular party. It is the party of most Chancellors now including Angela Merkel. I call it the "yes Chancellor Club". Merkel calls herself pragmatic, some German people call her "Mutti". Mutti in German means a cunning, but one minded pragmatist, who will reprimand/control her husband for coming home late from a bar. CDU is pro-euro but against Eurobonds. Under Merkel CDU has lost its profile and has made some erratic shifts in position, which is a major turnoff for many supporters. Notably Merkel's agreement to the breach of all EU-Agreements and her shift to a so called "green energy" has alienated many voters.

CSU (Christian Social Union): CSU is the Bavarian sister to the CDU. Whereas CDU operates in 15 States, CSU is in Bavaria only, where it traditionally gets 50 plus percent of popular votes, thus catapulting it above 5% on federal level. Voter participation in Bavaria is traditionally above 75%. CSU follows Merkel, but tensions are rising. Many CSU members are far from convinced that Merkel is right. Most of legal obstacles against Merkel's Euro policies in front of the Federal Constitution Court come from members of the CSU. Due to its high degree of organization and its firm foundation in the center of Bavarian populace, CSU is rather influential in German Federal Politics.

Alternative für Deutschland) AfD (Alternative for Germany): AfD is a liberal-conservative party supported by many German economists. More than two-thirds of its initial supporters hold doctorates. Its main position is a return of the EU to the original meaning of the Maastricht agreement, alternatively a return to national currencies. The second major topic is the strengthening of German Democracy, advocating a Swiss – like model. In April 2013, the party held its first convention in Berlin, which was attended by about 1500 supporters. The convention elected the party leadership and adopted the party platform. The three elected speakers are economist Bernd Lucke, the entrepreneur Frauke Petry, and the publicist Konrad Adam. The key demand of AfD is to provide a mechanism for countries to exit the Eurozone. In old Germany, "liberal" was in regards to Civil Rights, not free-flowing money or other policies those in the US may associate with the word. Liberal for AfD is a bit different than for the current FDP

Mish Note:

Reader Bernd is not (not Bernd Lucke, the economist and AfD elected speaker). I will have election predictions next week from Reader Bernd.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Weekly Address: America Stands with the City of Boston

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, April 20, 2013
 

Weekly Address: America Stands with the City of Boston

President Obama speaks to the American people about the act of terror at the Boston Marathon that wounded dozens and killed three innocent people on Monday, and says that through it all, Boston’s spirit remains undaunted and Americans have proven they refuse to be terrorized.

Watch this week's Weekly Address.

Watch this week's Weekly Address

Learn more:

Stay Connected


This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Sign Up for Updates from the White House

Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy

Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

 

Seth's Blog : Skeumorphs = failure

 

Skeumorphs = failure

For as long as I've been in digital media, skeumorphs have annoyed me.

The original CD ROMs, for example, often had a home screen that started with a bookshelf, and you clicked on the 'book' you wanted to 'open' (excessive use of quotations intentional). Here's the thing: bookshelves are a great idea if you want to store actual books on an actual shelf. They're a silly way to index digital information, though.

If you haven't guessed, a skeumorph is a design element from an old thing, added to a new one. I think that printing a cork-colored filter on a cigarette that no longer has cork involved is just fine. But when skeumorphs get in the way of how we actually use something or build something, they demonstrate a lack of imagination or even cowardice on the part of the designer. (Sooner or later, just about everything, even the alphabet I am writing with, could be considered skeumorphic... my point is that embracing the convenient at the expense of the effective is where the failure happens).

Craig Mod writes eloquently about this, which reminded me of some of what we did with the covers for the books from the Domino Project more than a year ago. We can take this thinking even further, though.

If a company is organizing to create music on MP3 or ebooks, it makes no sense to steal the organization of the past labels and publishers. High unit pricing, copy protection, significant advances, big launch parties and royalties all make much less sense when the fundamental rules of the product itself have changed. So do things like office buildings and layers of vice presidents.  

Yes, the brain is organized by analogy. Analogy is the key to understanding. But, no, the analogy doesn't have to hit us over the head. The more obvious the analogy, the less effort the creator has put into telling us his story.

When it's cheaper to ship, then risks are lower and you don't need to staff up to avoid mistakes. This means you can take more risks, be less obvious and abandon what feels safe for what is safe.

This consistency of structure is the single biggest reason that motivated market leaders (in any industry) fail to transition to new paradigms--they insist on skeumorphic business models, bringing along the stuff that got them this far, even when it's unnecessary. This is why Conde Nast is doomed, even as the population spends more (not less) time consuming media.

Yes, it's far easier to get understanding or buy in quickly (from investors, in-laws and users) when you take the shortcut of making your digital thing look and work just like the trusted and proven non-digital thing. But over and over again, we see that the winner doesn't look at all like the old thing. eBay doesn't look like Sotheby's. Amazon doesn't look like a bookstore. The funding for AirBnB doesn't look like what it took to get Marriott off the ground...

The only reason to venture into the land of the new is to benefit from the leap that comes when you get it right. So leap. (Well, it's not actually a leap, that's an analogy.)


More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498