duminică, 19 mai 2013

Seth's Blog : Learning by analogy

 

Learning by analogy

The story of Hansel and Gretel is not actually about Hansel or Gretel.

You are surrounded by examples and lessons and case studies that clearly aren't exactly about your project. There's never been a book written precisely about the situation you are facing right now, either. Perhaps one day they will publish, "Marketing Low-Cost Coaching Services to Small Businesses Specializing in Graphic Design in the Upper Peninsula for Dummies" but don't hold your breath.

Marketing, like all forms of art, requires us to learn to see. To see what's working and to transplant it, change it and amplify it.

We don't teach this, but we should. We don't push people to practice the act of learning by analogy, because it's way easier to just give them a manual and help them avoid thinking for themselves.

The opportunity is to find the similarities and get ever better at letting others go first--not with what you've got, but with something you can learn from.

And the opposite is even more true. We over-rely on things where the specifics seem to match, but the lesson is obscured by the trivial. Sometimes when we see something happen that we can learn a conceptual lesson from, we instead jump to conclusions that the specifics are the important part.

Remember that the next time you have to take your shoes off before you get on an airplane.

     

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.

Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 
Publicat de 1 la 03:22 0 comentarii

sâmbătă, 18 mai 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Poll Shows 46% in UK Want to Exit EU, 30% Want to Stay In

Posted: 18 May 2013 04:48 PM PDT

By a wide margin, but not quite a majority (yet), Let's quit EU say 46 per cent of voters in poll.
Asked the exact question Conservatives want to put the public in the 2017 referendum – "Do you think that the UK should remain a member of the EU" – 46 per cent opt to come out, a higher figure than in other recent surveys.

Just 30 per cent say they want to remain.

In a further boost for the eurosceptic cause, 44 per cent want an "in/out" referendum immediately, although 29 per cent are prepared to wait until 2017, David Cameron's preferred option.

The headline figure using ICM's "Wisdom Index" method – which asks voters to predict the result of the next general election rather than which party they support – puts Labour just three points ahead of the Tories, the party's narrowest lead since the index was launched last year.
Cameron is hurting himself by not agreeing to a referendum now. For further discussion, please see Cameron Faces Cabinet Crisis of His Own Making; Purposely Self-Inflicted Wounds

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Protests in Italy Against New Coalition; How Long Will Coalition Last?

Posted: 18 May 2013 09:42 AM PDT

The new coalition government in Italy is off to such a rocky start, it's hard to say there ever was a honeymoon.

People want more jobs. Instead, the price for a coalition by former Prime Minister Mario Silvio Berlusconi was a rollback in property taxes.

Here is the result: Thousands rally in Rome against cuts.
Thousands of protesters, led by trade unionists, have rallied in the Italian capital Rome against the policies of the new coalition government. Wielding red flags and placards, they urged the centre-left Prime Minister, Enrico Letta, to scrap austerity measures and focus on job creation.

Public trust in his fragile coalition with the centre-right is dropping, opinion polls suggest. The country is experiencing its longest recession in more than 40 years. National debt is now about 127% of annual economic output, second only to Greece in the eurozone.

National debt is now about 127% of annual economic output, second only to Greece in the eurozone. Unemployment is at a record high of 11.5% - 38% for the under-25s.

Before taking office, Mr Letta vowed to make job creation his priority, but critics are unhappy that he has focused on property tax reform.

Soon after being appointed, Mr Letta met other eurozone leaders to convey growing public unrest over austerity measures in Italy. But the new prime minister has to maintain a delicate balance between the policies of his own supporters and those of the centre-right, led by Mr Berlusconi.
Protest Pictures From Reuters, BBC





How Long Will Coalition Last?

Inquiring minds are wondering how long this rocky coalition can last. There is no definitive answer but there are a some general rules.

  1. Long enough for Berlusconi to get the tax changes and prosecution immunity he seeks
  2. Not much longer than support for the coalition starts to cost Berlusconi votes
  3. Not much longer than Berlusconi is pretty sure he can win the next election outright

1. Berlusconi got a suspension of property taxes but not the complete rollback he was seeking. Prime Minister Enrico Letta has not said how he will pay for property tax reform so expect some heat from Brussels.

If Berlusconi does not get a complete property tax rollback, the coalition will likely end right then and there. If he does get the rollback, he will have gotten one of the things he wanted.

2. Support for coalition may be costing Berlusconi votes right now.

3. Support for Beppe Grillo waned after the election so Berlusconi could be closing in on the number now.


In all respects, it appears the coalition will splinter sooner rather than later.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Publicat de 1 la 23:19 0 comentarii

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Family Photos: Then And Yikes

Posted: 18 May 2013 07:00 PM PDT

It's all fun and games until someone brings an adult baby.

Sports Betting Sites.









































Publicat de 1 la 19:11 0 comentarii

Weekly Address: The President Talks About How to Build a Rising, Thriving Middle Class

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, May 18, 2013
 

Weekly Address: The President Talks About How to Build a Rising, Thriving Middle Class

President Obama talks about his belief that a rising, thriving middle class is the true engine of economic growth, and that to reignite that engine and continue to build on the progress we’ve made over the last four years, we need to invest in three areas: jobs, skills and opportunity.

Watch this week's Weekly Address.

Watch this week's Weekly Address

In Case You Missed It

Watch the West Wing Week here.

Obama Cares: On the Friday before Mother’s Day, President Obama explained how the Affordable Care Act is helping women. For example, the law prevents insurance companies from charging women more than men and requires insurance companies to cover preventive services like mammograms free of charge.

Thanks to the women in this room and people all across the country, we worked really hard -- and it’s now been more than three years since Congress passed the Affordable Care Act and I signed it into law. It’s been nearly a year since the Supreme Court upheld the law under the Constitution. And, by the way, six months ago, the American people went to the polls and decided to keep going in this direction. So the law is here to stay.

Review of IRS: On Wednesday, the President delivered remarks on the Treasury Department’s review of the Internal Revenue Service and said the “misconduct that it uncovered is inexcusable.” The President said he will hold the responsible parties accountable, put in place new safeguards to make sure this does not happen again, and work with Congress as it performs its oversight role.

I’ll do everything in my power to make sure nothing like this happens again by holding the responsible parties accountable, by putting in place new checks and new safeguards, and going forward, by making sure that the law is applied as it should be -- in a fair and impartial way.

Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey: On Thursday, President Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan held a press conference at the Rose Garden. The leaders discussed U.S. - Turkey relations such as trade and investment, mutual security, and the conflict in Syria.

Prime Minister Cameron of Great Britain: On Tuesday, the President welcomed British Prime Minister David Cameron to the White House. The global partners spoke about the upcoming Group of Eight summit, sustaining the global economy, and the conflict in Syria.

As we’ve said before, the great alliance between the United States and the United Kingdom is rooted in shared interests and shared values, and it’s indispensable to global security and prosperity.

National Peace Officers Memorial Service: On Wednesday, the President headed to the U.S. Capitol for the National Peace Officers Memorial Service. The event paid respect to law enforcement officers killed in the line of duty the last year. The 143 fallen officers were recognized for their courage on the front lines and their dedication to our community.

They exemplified the very idea of citizenship -- that with our God-given rights come responsibilities and obligations to ourselves and to others. They embodied that idea. That’s the way they died. That’s how we must remember them. And that’s how we must live.

#WeTheGeeks: On Thursday, the White House launched "We the Geeks," a new series of Google+ Hangouts highlighting the future of science, technology, and innovation in America. The first "We the Geeks" Hangout covered Grand Challenges, which are “ambitious goals on a national or global scale that capture the imagination and demand advances in innovation and breakthroughs in science and technology."

Stay Connected


This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Sign Up for Updates from the White House
Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy
Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

  

Publicat de 1 la 08:59 0 comentarii

Seth's Blog : It's Thomas Midgeley day

 

It's Thomas Midgeley day

Today would be his 124th birthday. A fine occasion to think about the effects of industrialization, and what happens when short-term profit-taking meets marketing.

Midgeley is responsible for millions of deaths. Not directly, of course, but by, "just doing his job," and then pushing hard to market ideas he knew weren't true—so he and his bosses could turn a profit.

His first mistake began when he figured out that adding lead to gasoline appeared to make cars perform better. At the time, two things were widely known by chemists: 1. Adding grain alcohol to gasoline dramatically increases octane and performance, and 2. Ingesting or sniffing lead can lead to serious injury, brain damage and death.

The problem for those that wanted to be in the gasoline business was that grain alcohol wasn't cheap, and the idea couldn't be patented. As a result, the search was on for a process that could be protected, that was cheaper and that could open the door for market dominance. If you own the patent on the cheap and easy way to make cars run quieter (and no one notices the brain damage and the deaths) then you can corner the market in a fast-growing profitable industry...

As soon as the lead started being used, people began dying. Factory workers would drop dead, right there in the plant. Even Thomas himself contracted lead poisoning. Later, at a press conference where he tried to demonstrate the safety of the gasoline, he washed his hands in it and sniffed it... even though he knew it was already killing people. That brief exposure was sufficient to require six months off the job for him to recover his health.

Does this sound familiar? An entrenched industry needs the public and its governments to ignore what they're doing so they can defend their status quo and extract the maximum value from their assets. They sow seeds of doubt, and remind themselves (and us) of the profts made and the money saved.

And we give them a pass. Because it's their job, or because it's our job, or because our culture has created a dividing line between individuals who create negative impacts and organizations that do.

People who just might, in other circumstances, stand up and speak up, decide to quietly stand by, or worse, actively lie as they engage in PR campaigns aimed at belittling or undermining those that are brave enough to point out just how damaging the status quo is.

It took sixty years for leaded gas to be banned in my country, and worse, it's still used in many places that can ill afford to deal with its effects.

After leaded gasoline, Midgeley did it again, this time with CFCs, responsible for a gaping hole in the ozone layer. He probably didn't know the effects in advance this time, but yes, the industry fought hard to maintain the status quo for years once the damage was widely known. It's going to take at least a millenium to clean that up.

We might consider erecting a statue of him in every lobbyist's office, a reminder to all of us that we're ultimately responsible for what we make, that spinning to defend the status quo hurts all of us, and most of all, that we have to balance the undeniable benefits of progress, innovation and industry with the costs to all concerned. Scaling has impact, so let's scale the things that work. No, nothing is perfect, but yes, some things are better than others.

I can't imagine a better person as the symbol a day that's not about honoring or celebrating, but could be about vigilance, candor and outspokenness instead.

[Previously: No such thing as business ethics.]

     

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.

Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 
Publicat de 1 la 03:20 0 comentarii

vineri, 17 mai 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Hollande Asks ECB to Engage in Japanese Style Currency Debasement

Posted: 17 May 2013 11:44 AM PDT

French president Francois has had enough of austerity but claims he "cannot do it alone". The Financial Times reports François Hollande goes on 'offensive' over stalled EU economy.
François Hollande promised an "offensive" to bring "more growth and less austerity" to Europe as he launched a bid to resurrect his presidency.

Mr Hollande said the first priority of his second-year "offensive" was a four-point plan to "get Europe out of its torpor" – concentrating on combating youth unemployment and a strategy of investment. "The number one objective is changing Europe's direction to have more growth and less austerity," he said.

"I cannot do it alone," he said, adding that the European Central Bank could "put in liquidity, as is happening in Japan, which has allowed a fall in the yen and helped exports".

The president promised a 10-year investment programme in digital, energy, health and infrastructure sectors to regenerate growth, saying that it could in part be financed by the sale of some of France's big state corporate holdings, which have a total market capitalisation of about €60bn. But he made clear that any sales would not be at the expense of ceding state control or influence over vital companies.
Economic Illiteracy

Not only is the Hollande in praise of competitive currency debasement which mathematically cannot work if every country does it (not that it can work anyway without long-term consequences), he also wants to sell France government holdings "without ceding state control or influence over vital companies".

Good luck with that. No one in their right mind would want to buy companies under such conditions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

How Clueless Are Manufacturing Future Expectations?

Posted: 17 May 2013 01:16 AM PDT

Month in and month out I see unwarranted optimism in Europe and in the US.

For example, on Thursday I stated "Philly Fed Slips Into Contraction (Again); Current Conditions Recessionary, Future Expectations Far Too Optimistic".

Here is the chart I posted:



That chart got me to wondering "just how wrong are future expectations historically?" The data is available, all one has to do is chart it.

I asked Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives if he could produce a chart of future expectations offset by six months to see how expectations actually matched what did happen. Doug graciously produced a pair of charts.

click on either chart for sharper image

Future Expectations Shifted 6 Months Back vs. Actual Results



Note that manufacturers in the Philly region are especially clueless during recessions as to how fast things will improve. They can be wildly off at other times too, as shown by the black ovals.

Since the Philly Fed index is generally noisy (huge month-to-month random fluctuations), we decided to smooth out the lines by showing a 3-month rolling average of current conditions vs. a 3-month rolling average of future expectations.

Future Expectations Shifted 6 Months Back vs. Actual Results (3-Month Rolling Averages)



Charts by Doug Short, annotations in purple and black by Mish.

Optimistic Expectations

Generally speaking, manufacturers' expectations about future conditions are wildly off for many months before during and after recessions.

In the double-dip recession of 80-82, it took 43 months from the end of the first recession for expectations to match reality, then the lines immediately diverged again.

Mid-cycle there were a couple of periods where expectations generally matched reality (as noted by close lines with repeat crossovers). The first was 1985 to 1987, and the second was 1996 to 1999. 

In the 1974 and 1980 recessions expectations plunged ahead of the recession. Both appear to be oil related because it has not happened since.

Key Points

  • Wide variances in expectations vs. current conditions tend to be way over-optimistic. 
  • Current spread of expectations vs. reality is in recession territory, albeit not quite as pronounced (yet) vs. earlier recessions.

Addendum: The heading on the charts originally said six moths forward. It should have said backwards. The caption on the chart itself was correct.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Publicat de 1 la 23:25 0 comentarii
Abonați-vă la: Postări (Atom)