Central Perk

luni, 8 iulie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

German Exports Decline Significantly and "Unexpectedly"
Civil War Brewing in Egypt? Muslim Brotherhood Calls for Uprising After 51 Supporters of Morsi were Killed by Security Forces
Trends in Full and Part-Time Employment; Obamacare Job Double Counting and Other Economic Distortions

German Exports Decline Significantly and "Unexpectedly"

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 12:23 PM PDT

Given that all of Europe is in a major recession and it is nearly impossible for the German export machine to keep cranking in such circumstances, the only real surprise is how long it took for German exports to the rest of the eurozone to plunge.

Nonetheless most economists were surprised by the news Germany's Recovery in Question as Exports Decline Significantly.

German exports declined in May at their fastest pace since 2009 because of the slowdown in key European and China markets, adding to worries that the country's recovery was losing momentum.

The Federal Statistical Office said that exports declined by 2.4% in calendar-adjusted terms from the previous month to €90.4bn ($116bn/£78bn). Economists expected a 0.1% increase in exports.

Germany's trade surplus declined to €13.1bn from €18bn in Apil. The surplus in the current account, a measure of all trade including services, was €11.2bn in June, down from €16.7bn.

On a year-on-year basis, exports declined by 4.8%, primarily due to a 9.6% decline in demand from other countries in the euro area. Imports declined by 2.6% from the year-ago month.

Exports to the eurozone, where Germany sends 40% of its shipments, declined by 9.6% from the year-ago month, and exports to the European Union (EU) fell by 7.1%. Export demand from countries outside the EU declined by 1.6%, with the slowdown in China have an impact on trade. With the slowdown in the EU, many German manufacturers had looked at China, the second largest economy, as an alternative.

The economy returned to modest growth of 0.1% in the first quarter and is expected to pick up further. The eurozone contracted in the first quarter of 2013, a sixth consecutive quarterly fall.

Summary

German exports overall down 4.8% from a year ago
German exports to eurozone down 9.6% from a year ago
German exports to EU down 7.1% from a year ago
German exports outside the EU down 1.6% from a year ago

Recovery? What Recovery?

For some inexplicable reason economists expect the German economy to "pick up further".

I expect Germany to sink back into recession (not that it really ever left recession).

0.1% growth is a rounding error, not "growth".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Civil War Brewing in Egypt? Muslim Brotherhood Calls for Uprising After 51 Supporters of Morsi were Killed by Security Forces

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 10:57 AM PDT

The Financial Times reports Muslim Brotherhood calls for uprising after Cairo violence

The political crisis in Egypt deepened on Monday when the Muslim Brotherhood called for an uprising against those who want to "steal the revolution" after at least 51 people were killed and 435 injured at a Cairo rally in support of the nation's ousted president, Mohamed Morsi.

Adli Mansour, the interim president, ordered the creation of a judicial committee to investigate the violence while an administration spokesman, told Reuters the violence "will not stop steps to form a government or a road map".

The interim administration earlier expressed "deep regret" for the victims, saying in a statement that the incident was caused by an attempt to storm a Republican Guard barracks. It urged protesters not to approach military facilities or other "vital installations".

The Freedom and Justice party, the Brotherhood's political wing, said on its Facebook page that Egyptians should "rise up against those who want to steal their revolution with tanks and armoured vehicles, even over the dead bodies of the people".

Monday's clashes immediately sparked fresh uncertainty over the make-up of any new government when the hardline Islamist Nour party – which backed the ousting of Mr Morsi – pulled out of negotiation as a response to what a spokesman called "the massacre of the Republican Guard".

Civil War Brewing?

The Guardian reports Muslim Brotherhood decries killing of Morsi supporters in Cairo 'massacre'

The army said an "armed terrorist group" attempted to break into the Republican Guard headquarters and attacked security forces. One officer died and 40 soldiers were injured, seven of whom were in a critical condition, according to al-Ahram, Egypt's leading pro-government newspaper. The army said it had arrested at least 200 people who had large quantities of firearms, ammunition and Molotov cocktails.

The conservative Salafi al-Nour party withdrew from talks about a transitional government after the latest violence. "We wanted to avoid bloodshed, but now blood has been spilled. So now we want to announce that we will end all negotiations with the new authorities," it said.

Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a moderate Islamist who left the Brotherhood last year, called on Mansour to step down and told al-Jazeera that the incident was "a horrible crime against humanity and all Egyptians".

The Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party (FJP) said it was calling "on the great Egyptian people to rise up against those who want to steal their revolution with tanks and armoured vehicles, even over the dead bodies of the people". But a spokesman clarified later that the appeal was for a "peaceful uprising".

Hamdeen Sabahi, a former presidential candidate and leftist opposition leader, said: "It is very bad news. Very painful. The troops have the duty to guard this building and deal with any attackers. But the result puts us in a bad situation." The only beneficiaries were the Muslim Brotherhood and others who sought to polarise the situation and drive Egypt into civil war, he said.

Let's hope that cooler head prevail, but the radical Muslim Brotherhood may not give up so easily having been forced out of power by the military.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Trends in Full and Part-Time Employment; Obamacare Job Double Counting and Other Economic Distortions

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 01:36 AM PDT

Reader Tim Wallace provided another excellent series of charts on the employment situation. These charts compare June employment in 2013 to June in prior years.

click on any chart for sharper image

June Employment

June Full-Time Employment

June Part-Time Employment

Wallace writes "Hello Mish. The full-time job loss since June of 2007 now tops five million. The overall job loss is still 2 million, in spite of the fact the US now has a working-age population that is 14 million higher than in June 2007."

Snapshot 2007 vs. 2013

Year	Total Employed	Full-Time	Part-Time
2007	146,958,000	123,554,000	23,404,000
2013	144,841,000	118,470,000	26,371,000
Difference	-2,117,000	-5,084,000	+2,967,000

Snapshot vs. Prior Year

Year	Employment vs. Prior Year	Full-Time vs. Prior Year	Part-Time vs. Prior Year
2007	1,742,000	1,205,000	537,000
2009	(5,823)	-8,715,000	2,892,000
2010	-944,000	355,000	-1,299,000
2011	247,000	-132,000	379,000
2012	3,073,000	3,118,000	-45,000
2013	1,639,000	1,316,000	323,000

By this comparison only 2012 looks anything close to a normal recovery year. Some of the jump in 2012 is due to revisions from 2010 and 2011 that were not as bad as originally reported.

In the last year, the economy gained 1.316 million full-time jobs, about 110,000 a month. Overall jobs rose by 1.639 million, about 137,000 a month, a number just above what it should take to hold the unemployment rate flat.

Month-Over-Month

Month-over-month distortions abound. As noted on Friday, Part-Time Jobs Increased by 486,000 with 326,000 Full-Time Jobs Lost.

Seasonally Adjusted Part-Time Employment

Wallace charts show non-adjusted numbers vs. the same month in prior years, and that is a valid statistical comparison.

Let's also look at seasonally adjusted numbers vs. the prior month, also a valid comparison.

The trend towards part-time employment since 2010 is volatile, yet unmistakable.

Part-Time Employment vs. Prior Month

Year Part-Time	Employment
2012-09-01	27692
2012-10-01	27869
2012-11-01	27517
2012-12-01	27502
2013-01-01	27467
2013-02-01	27569
2013-03-01	27442
2013-04-01	27549
2013-05-01	27699
2013-06-01	28059

Obamacare Job Double Counting

The above part-time numbers do not show the trend one might expect. Moreover, establishment survey numbers show a fair amount of hiring (+195,000 in the latest report), with recent months revised higher.

Here's the problem: The establishment survey double counts jobs when someone takes an extra part-time job, whereas someone working two part-time jobs is counted as employed just once in the household survey.

For example: Thanks to Obamacare, someone who used to work 35 hours a week for Olive Garden now works 22 hours for Olive Garden and 12 for Applebees. And Someone who worked 35 hours for Applebees now works 22 for Applebees and 12 for Olive Garden. The establishment survey sees two additional jobs created when precisely zero jobs were created.

Since this is happening en masse, I expect downward revisions in the future over Obamacare Double Counting.

The Obamcare effect is real. The distortions are complicated, numerous, and not widely understood.

Obamacare Economic Distortion Synopsis

October 10, 2012: Prepping for Obamacare, Olive Garden and Red Lobster Cut Workers' Hours; Are Other Companies Doing the same?
October 20, 2012: Mish Obamacare Mailbag: Expect More Part-Time Jobs
February 02, 2013: Obamacare in Action: Retail Workweek Hits 3-Year Low
February 19, 2013: Opting Out of Obamacare (the Unaffordable Health Care Act); Not Even Labor Unions Want It
May 3, 2013: Obamacare Affects Part-Time Employment Yet Again; Nullification Bill Passes South Carolina House; Analysis of Healthcare Penalty Rates
May 20, 2013: Obamacare Premiums 47% Higher But Deductibles 27% Lower Than Grandfathered Health Plans; Obamacare Lies
June 21, 2013: Obamacare Effects Hit Local Governments, Small Businesses, Temp Staffing Agencies; Chicago Dumps Retirees Into Obamacare

For more on Obamacare Economic Distortions, please peruse the above links to your heart's content.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Ultimate Weird Japanese Commercials Compilation [Video]
Anorexic Pregnant Girl
Pepper from “American Horror Story” in Real Life
The Most Faked iPhone Ever
A History Of Crufts [Infographic]

Ultimate Weird Japanese Commercials Compilation [Video]

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 05:03 PM PDT

We're not sure when Japan's TV audience has a chance to run to the bathroom seeing how entertaining the commercials are, but there's probably another great invention out there to keep them in their seats.

Anorexic Pregnant Girl

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 04:43 PM PDT

It may sound scary and crazy, but the story is really interesting. Holly Griffiths is 21 years old and has battled anorexia from the age of eight. She gave birth to her son at 37 weeks via caesarean and she was so thin that the baby actually broke one of her ribs while he was growing inside of her. Holly is now pregnant with her second baby and here are some pictures of her before and during her pregnancy so far.

Before

Month 4

Month 5

Month 6

Month 8

20-week scan

32-week scan

Her first child Dylan.

Pepper from “American Horror Story” in Real Life

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 04:21 PM PDT

Pepper is a character from the second season of the American Horror story. Now, let's see how Naomi Grossman, the actress who played Pepper in the series, looks like in the real life.

The Most Faked iPhone Ever

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 04:10 PM PDT

One client brought this iPhone to a service center saying it wasn't working at all, and the battery was low all the time. Let's see what was inside the phone.

A History Of Crufts [Infographic]

Posted: 08 Jul 2013 08:57 AM PDT

Vet Medic have created this unique and comprehensive infographic about the world famous dog show Crufts. The infographics is bursting at the seems with facts, trivia and cool information about the biggest name in dog shows.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Via: Vet Medic Pharmacy

Seth's Blog : Q&A: The resiliency of Permission Marketing

Q&A: The resiliency of Permission Marketing

Here's my first Monday Afternoon book Q&A. Thanks to everyone who responded...

The first book is Permission Marketing and virtually all the questions were the same, best summarized by Brandon Carroll, "How do you feel like Permission Marketing has changed since the 90s when you wrote it? How can it be applied in today's fast changing world?"

If you haven't read it yet, here is some context. I wrote it in 1998, before YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Psy, the iPhone or the bankruptcy of Hostess.

I felt confident writing the book because there were two key shifts that hadn't drawn enough attention:

1. For the first time in fifty years, paid advertising was no longer growing as an effective, dependable way to buy attention from the people you wanted to reach. Instead, there was an explosion of cheap and even free ways to make noise. And...

2. For the first time in history, it was possible to directly reach people you wanted to reach, presuming that they wanted you to reach them. And you could do it for free.

If anything, both of these trends have accelerated. Most big companies now spend far more time than they ever spent before on advertising engaging in its free alternative. They tweet and post and ping and poke and generally put on an ever-noisier show, all based on the self-delusion that they can actually get back to 1968 and the ability to reach everyone, whenever they want. This is obviously a futile endeavor, but it's not stopping people who should know better from trying.

At the same time, a very rare and precious communications channel is being understood and refined. The ability to whisper. The opportunity to be missed. Replacing hype with permission, with an audience of believers who will go ahead and spread the word for you, because they want to, not because you pay them to.

And so, banner ads went from $50 cpm to less than 1% of that, because they're not, in fact, as effective as TV ads used to be. I was being hyperbolic 13 years ago when I said that they would disappear, but they've certainly vanished as the next-big-thing, either for marketers or for media companies. The movement of money spent on mass advertising to mass banners online isn't a smooth one, because it's a shift from mass to micro, from brand advertising to direct response.

No big brand has ever been built using banners. And so, the biggest brands built in the last decade (make any list you want, from Red Bull to Google) did not get that way using marketing that Don Draper would have recognized...

The biggest mis-fire from my original book, the thing I didn't understand well enough, is how nuanced the pursuit of permission would become. Online games and loyalty programs haven't disappeared, but they're not even close to the most important foundation of this asset. No, it comes down to our need to be included, to be respected and to be connected. Over and over, marketers that have touched this asset have raced to push it too hard and too fast, and along the way, lost the very permission they worked so hard to get.

The other mistake I made was underestimating how much fun it is to act like a big advertiser or a big media company, and how profitable it is to keep that industry moving forward. As a result, there are ever more techniques and ever more tools to act as if you're doing brand advertising in the new media space, when of course, the results are a mere shadow of what you used to be able to do with TV.

For the individual or small organization, all the social networks provide you with a fork in the road. Either you can work around the edges, spamming your way to more followers and more noise, figuring out how to make some sort of make-believe metric increase as a result of your efforts. Or, you can use these networks as a new form of 1:1 interaction, making promises and keeping them. This second path means that your followers are actually followers and that your friends are closer than ever to becoming friends.

Going forward, the organizations to bet on are the ones with a tribe, with a direct connection. If it's easy to get your Kickstarter funded, if it's easier to get your email opened, then you've built something, something that lasts.