joi, 24 octombrie 2013

Hummingbird Unleashed

Hummingbird Unleashed


Hummingbird Unleashed

Posted: 23 Oct 2013 04:19 PM PDT

Posted by gfiorelli1

Sometimes I think that us SEOs could be wonderful characters for a Woody Allen movie: We are stressed, nervous, paranoid, we have a tendency for sudden changes of mood...okay, maybe I am exaggerating a little bit, but that's how we tend to (over)react whenever Google announces something.

Cases like this webmaster, who is desperately thinking he was penalized by Hummingbird, are not uncommon.

One thing that doesn't help is the lack of clarity coming from Google, which not only never mentions Hummingbird in any official document (for example, in the post of its 15th anniversary), but has also shied away from details of this epochal update in the "off-the-record" declarations of Amit Singhal. In fact, in some ways those statements partly contributed to the confusion.

When Google announces an updateâ€"especially one like Hummingbirdâ€"the best thing to do is to avoid trying to immediately understand what it really is based on intuition alone. It is better to wait until the dust falls to the ground, recover the original documents, examine those related to them (and any variants), take the time to see the update in action, calmly investigate, and then after all that try to find the most plausible answers.

This method is not scientific (and therefore the answers can't be defined as "surely correct"), it is philological, and when it comes to Google and its updates, I consider it a great method to use.

The original documents are the story for the press of the event during which Google announced Hummingbird, and the FAQ that Danny Sullivan published immediately after the event, which makes direct reference to what Amit Singhal said.

Related documents are the patents that probably underlie Hummingbird, and the observations that experts like Bill Slawski, Ammon Johns, Rand Fishkin, Aaron Bradley and others have derived.

This post is the result of my study of those documents and field observations.

Why did Amit Singhal mix apples with oranges?

When announcing Hummingbird, Amit Singhal said that it wasn't since Caffeine in 2010 that the Google Algorithm was updated so deeply.

The problem is that Caffeine wasn't an algorithmic change; it was an infrastructural change.

Caffeine's purpose, in fact, was to optimize the indexation of the billions of Internet documents Google crawls, presenting a richer, bigger, and fresher pool of results to the users.

Instead, Hummingbird's objective is not a newer optimization of the indexation process, but to better understand the users' intent when searching, thereby offering the most relevant results to them.

Nevertheless, we can affirm that Hummingbird is also an infrastructural update, as it governs the more than 200 elements that make up Google's algorithm.

The (maybe unconscious) association Amit Singhal created between Caffeine and Hummingbird should tell us:

  • That Hummingbird would not be here if Caffeine wasn't deployed in 2010, and hence it should be considered an evolution of Google Search, and not a revolution.
  • Moreover, that Hummingbird should be considered Google's most ambitious attempt to solve all the algorithmic issues that Caffeine caused.

Let me explain this last point.

Caffeine, quitting the so-called "Sand Box," caused the SERPs to be flooded with poor-quality results.

Google reacted by creating "patches" like Panda, Penguin, and the exact-match domain (EMD) updates, among others.

But these updates, so effective in what we define as middle- and head-tail queries, were not so effective for a type of query thatâ€"mainly because of the fast adoption of mobile search by the usersâ€"more and more people have begun to use: conversational long tail queries, or those that Amit Singhal has defined as "verbose queries."

The evolution of natural language recognition by Google, the improved ability to disambiguate entities and concepts through technology inherited from Metaweb and improved with Knowledge Graph, and the huge improvements made in the SERPs' personalized customization have given Google the theoretical and practical tools not only for solving the problem of long-tail queries, but also for giving a fresh start to the evolution of Google Search.

That is the backstory that explains what Amit Singhal told about Hummingbird, paraphrased here by Danny Sullivan:

[Hummingbird] Gave us an opportunity [...] to take synonyms and knowledge graph and other things Google has been doing to understand meaning to rethink how we can use the power of all these things to combine meaning and predict how to match your query to the document in terms of what the query is really wanting and are the connections available in the documents. and not just random coincidence that could be the case in early search engines.

How does Hummingbird work?

"To take synonyms and knowledge graph and other things..."

Google has been working with synonyms for a long time. If we look at the timeline Google itself shared in its 15th anniversary post, it has used them since 2002, even though we can also tell that disambiguation (meant as orthographic analysis of the queries) has been applied since 2001.

Image from Fifteen years onâ€

Last year Vanessa Fox wrote "Is Google's Synonym Matching Increasing?..." on Search Engine Land.

Reading that post and seeing the examples presented, it is clear that synonyms were already used by Googleâ€"in connection with the user intent underlying the queryâ€"in order to broaden the query and rewrite it to offer the best results to the users.

That same post, though, shows us why only using a thesaurus of synonyms or relying on the knowledge of the highly ranked queries was not enough to assure relevant SERPs (see how Vanessa points out how Google doesn't consider "dogs" pets in the query "pet adoption," but does consider "cats").

Amit Singhal, in this old patent, was also conscious that only relying on synonyms was not a perfect solution, because two words may be synonyms and may not be so depending on the context they are used (i.e.: "coche" and "automóvil" both mean "car" in Spanish, but "carro" only means "car" in Latin American Spanish, meaning "wagon" in Spain).

Therefore, in order to deliver the best results possible using semantic search, what Google needed to understand better, easier, and faster was context. Hummingbird is how Google solved that need.

Image from "The Google Hummingbird Patent?" by Bill Slawki on SEO by the Sea.

Synonyms remain essential; Amit Singhal confirmed that in the post-event talk with Danny Sullivan. How they are used now has been described by Bill Slawski in this post, where he dissects the Synonym identification based on co-occurring terms patent.

That patent, then is also based on the concept of "search entities," which I described in my last post here on Moz, when talking about personalized search.

Speaking literally, words are not "things" themselves but the verbal representation of things, and search entities are how Google objectifies words into concepts. An object may have a relationship with others that may change depending on the context in which they are used together. In this sense, words are treated like people, cities, books, and all the other named entities usually related to the Knowledge Graph.

The mechanisms Google uses in identifying search entities are especially important in disambiguating the different potential meanings of a word, and thereby refining the information retrieval accordingly to a "probability score."

This technique is not so different from what the Knowledge Graph does when disambiguating, for instance, Saint Peter the Apostle from Saint Peter the Basilica or Saint Peter the city in Minnesota.

Finally, there is a third concept playing an explicit role in what could be the "Hummingbird patent:" co-occurrences.

Integrating these three elements, Google now is (in theory) able:

  1. To better understand the intent of a query;
  2. To broaden the pool of web documents that may answer that query;
  3. To simplify how it delivers information, because if query A, query B, and query C substantively mean the same thing, Google doesn't need to propose three different SERPs, but just one;
  4. To offer a better search experience, because expanding the query and better understanding the relationships between search entities (also based on direct/indirect personalization elements), Google can now offer results that have a higher probability of satisfying the needs of the user.
  5. As a consequence, Google may present better SERPs also in terms of better ads, because in 99% of the cases, verbose queries were not presenting ads in their SERPs before Hummingbird.

Maybe Hummingbird could have solved Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers speaking issues...

90% of the queries affected, seriously?

Many SEOs have questioned the fact that Hummingbird has affected the 90% of all queries for the simple reason they didn't notice any change in traffic and rankings.

Apart from the fact that the SERPs were in constant turmoil between the end of August and the first half of September, during which time Hummingbird first saw the light (though it could just be a coincidence, quite an opportune one indeed), the typical query that Hummingbird targets is the conversational one (e.g.: "What is the best pizzeria to eat at close to Piazza del Popolo e via del Corso?"), a query that usually is not tracked by us SEOs (well, apart from Dr. Pete, maybe).

Moreover, Hummingbird is about queries, not keywords (much less long-tail ones), as was so well explained by Ammon Johns in his post "Hummingbird - The opposite of long-tail search." For that reason, tracking long-tail rankings as a metric of the impact of Hummingbird is totally wrong.

Finally, Hummingbird has not meant the extinction of all the classic ranking factors, but is instead a new framework set upon them. If a site was both authoritative and relevant for a query, it still will be ranking as well as it was before Hummingbird.

So, which sites got hit? Probably those sites that were relying just on very long tail keyword-optimized pages, but had no or very low authority. Therefore, as Rand said in his latest Whiteboard Friday, now it is far more convenient to create better linkable/shareable content, which also semantically relates to long-tail keywords, than it is to create thousands of long tail-based pages with poor or no quality or utility.

If Hummingbird is a shift to semantic SEO, does that mean that using Schema.org will make my site rank better?

One of the myths that spread very fast when Hummingbird was announced was that it is heavily using structured data as a main factor.

Although it is true that for some months now Google has stressed the importance of structured data (for example, dedicating a section to it in Google Webmaster Tools), considering Schema.org as the magic solution is not correct. It is an example of how us SEOs sometimes confuse the means with the purpose.

Google Data Highlighter is a good alternative to Schema.org, even though not such potent

What we need to do is offer Google easily understandable context for the topics around which we have created a page, and structured data are helpful in this respect. By themselves, however, they are not enough. As mentioned before, if a page is not considered authoritative (thanks to external links and mentions), it most likely will not have enough strength for ranking well, especially now that long-tail queries are simplified by Hummingbird.

Is Hummingbird related to the increased presence of the Knowledge Graph and Answers Cards?

Many people came up with the idea that Hummingbird is the translation of the Knowledge Graph to the classic Google Search, and that it has a direct connection with the proliferation of the Answer Cards. This theory led to some very angry posts ranting against the "scraper" nature of Google.

This is most likely due to the fact that Hummingbird was announced alongside new features of Knowledge Graph, but there is no evident relationship between Hummingbird and Knowledge Graph.

What many have thought as being a cause (Hummingbird causing more Knowledge Graph and Answer Cards, hence being the same) is most probably a simple correlation.

Hummingbird substantially simplified verbose queries into less verbose ones, the latter of which are sometimes complemented with the constantly expanding Knowledge Graph. For that reason, we see a greater number of SERPs presenting Knowledge Graph elements and Answer Cards.

That said, the philosophy behind Hummingbird and the Knowledge Graph is the same, moving from strings to things.

Is Hummingbird strongly based on the Knowledge Base?

The Knowledge Base is potent and pervasive in how Google works, but reducing Hummingbird to just the Knowledge Base would be simplistic.

As we saw, Hummingbird relies on several elements, the Knowledge Base being one of them, especially in all queries with personalization (which should be considered a pervasive layer that affects the algorithm).

If Hummingbird was heavily relying on the Knowledge Base, without complementing it with other factors, we could fall into the issues that Amit Singhal was struggling with in the earlier patent about synonyms.

Does Hummingbird mean the end of the link graph?

No. PageRank and link-related elements of the algorithm are still alive and kicking. I would also dare to say that links are even more important now.

In fact, without the authority a good link profile grants to a site, a web page will have even more difficulty ranking now (see what I wrote just above about the fate of low-authority pages).

What is even more important now is the context in which the link is present. We already learned this with Penguin, but Hummingbird reaffirms how inbound links from topically irrelevant contexts are bad links.

That said, Google still has to improve on the link front, as Danny Sullivan said well in this tweet:

At the same time, though (again because of context and entity recognition), brand co-occurrences and co-citations assume an even more important role with Hummingbird.

Is Hummingbird related to 100% (not provided)?

The fact that Hummingbird and 100% (not provided) were rolled out at almost the same time seems to be more than just a coincidence.

If Hummingbird is more about search entities, better information retrieval, and query expansionâ€"an update where keywords by themselves have lost part of the omnipresent value they hadâ€"then relying on keyword data alone is not enough anymore.

We should stop focusing only on keyword optimization and start thinking about topical optimization.

This obliges us to think about great content, and not just about "content." Things like "SEO copywriting" will end up being the same as "amazing copywriting."

For that, as SEOs, we should start understanding how search entities work, and not simply become human thesauruses of synonyms.

If Hummingbird is a giant step toward Semantic SEO, then as SEOs, our job "is not about optimizing for strings, or for things, but for the connections between things," as brilliantly says Aaron Bradley in this post and deck for SMX East.

Semantic SEO - The Shift From Strings To Things by Aaron Bradley #SMX
from Search Marketing Expo - SMX

What must we do to be Hummingbird-friendly?

Let me ask you few questions, and try to answer them sincerely:

  1. When creating/optimizing a site, are you doing it with a clear audience in your mind?
  2. When performing on-page optimization for your site, are you following at least these SEO best practices?
    1. Using a clear and not overly complex information architecture;
    2. Avoiding canonicalization issues;
    3. Avoiding thin-content issues;
    4. Creating a semantic content model;
    5. Topically optimizing the content of the site on a page-by-page basis, using natural and semantically rich language and with a landing page-centric strategy in mind;
    6. Creating useful content using several formats, that you yourself would like to share with your friends and link to;
    7. Implementing Schema.org, Open Graph and semantic mark-ups.
  3. Are your link-building objectives:
    1. Better brand visibility?
    2. Gaining referral traffic?
    3. Enhancing the sense of thought leadership of your brand?
    4. Topically related sites and/or topically related sections of a more generalist site (i.e.: News site)?
  4. As an SEO, is social media offering these advantages?
    1. Wider brand visibility;
    2. Social echo;
    3. Increased mentions/links in the form of derivatives, co-occurrences, and co-citation in others' web sites;
    4. Organic traffic and brand ambassadors' growth.
If you answered yes to all these questions, you don't have to do anything but keep up the good work, refine it, and be creative and engaging. You were likely already seeing your site ranking well and gaining traffic thanks to the more holistic vision of SEO you have.

If you answered no to few of them, then you have just to correct the things you're doing wrong and follow the so-called SEO best practices (and the 2013 Moz Ranking Factors are a good list of best practices).

If you sincerely answered no to many of them, then you were having problems even before Hummingbird was unleashed, and things won't get better with it if you don't radically change your mindset.

Hummingbird is not asking us to rethink SEO or to reinvent the wheel. It is simply asking us to not do crappy SEO... but that is something we should know already, shouldn't we?


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Moz Analytics: A Quick Review

Moz Analytics: A Quick Review

Link to White Noise

Moz Analytics: A Quick Review

Posted: 23 Oct 2013 07:16 AM PDT

At the end of May, Moz Analytics beta was rolled out to a gradually increasing number of Moz accounts. Its freshly designed package aimed to "give every marketer affordable software to measure and improve their efforts."

Moz Analytics may not be a full-service, top of the range analytics package, but it doesn't pretend to be either. Building on the PRO platform functionality, Moz Analytics now benefits from improved social analytics (including Google Plus) and brand mention tracking. Essentially, it has brought together all our favourite tools and more, into one convenient place.

The UI and navigation is a big leap forward and you can easily guess where the information you need can be found. In my opinion, dashboard is a little busy and I'd rather see strictly top level metrics for traffic, search, links, social and brand mentions on my dashboard and then click through to see more detailed data, but I've  heard many positive comments about the dashboard so I may be in the minority there.

Since most of us already have a Moz account or at least use their tools, Moz Analytics is definitely worth exploring. I've been playing about with the new version for a few months now and have highlighted my favourite useful features of the product:

5 Great Moz Analytics Features

  •  The data visualisations are great. Moz Analytics gives you some brilliant weekly and more long-term headline stats that provide a tangible overview of site performance. The time-frames on these charts may be confusing, but their value lies in their clear self-explanatory style. My favourite is the one below, which charts keyword ranking performance and its relationship with organic search volume. Our new name may be White.net, but we still love colourful graphics!

moz-rankings-chart

  • The Moz link metrics are great for benchmarking and checking performance alongside competitors. This is 'at a glance' stuff and it works well, bringing in OSE and Mozscape data. This section could do with a tidy up but the data is really useful for analysing linking issues and figuring out why you're ranking where you are.
  • Keyword Opportunities – this highlights any keywords that bring traffic to your site that you aren't tracking in Moz. It's not as useful since the (not provided) crash of September 2013, but still very helpful at pointing out the things you've missed with the keyword data that remains.
  • Basic SERP report (below) – this allows you to analyse your ranking position for each term you track and those ranking around you. It may give you some clues as to why you're ranking where you are and how you match up to your competitors.

moz-basic-serp-report

  • Bounce rate on keywords visits – here you can see where your on-site content is lacking or where you're targeting the wrong terms. If something stands out here, it's worth looking into. A great metric, although it too is now not as useful due to the prevalence of (not provided)

What can it do for an agency like White.net?

Well, we don't expect to be using Moz Analytics every day and for every client, but some of its metrics are really great and with the future possibility of custom reports and exports to PDF, I will certainly be showing some of its useful data visualisations to clients.

Things I'd Like To See

  • Ability to choose different time frames – at the moment, there only one or two options available for each metric
  • Improved referral traffic and link discovery visualisations

Look out for:

  • In the near future, they’ll be releasing features that give you the ability to estimate keyword traffic based on page-level performance, in order to replace some of the data that Google has removed.
  • If you've never looked into your website or analysed where your traffic is coming from, Moz Analytics is a good place to look for opportunities and insights.
  • You can now take a 30 day free trial, so it's worth signing up to check it out.

Have you been using the new Moz Analytics? Which are your most used features and what tasks do you use it for? I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments below or via twitter @alex_cestrian.

The post Moz Analytics: A Quick Review appeared first on White Noise.

Seth's Blog : Does anger follow the laws of thermodynamics?

 

Does anger follow the laws of thermodynamics?

I have no idea what caused the guy in front of me in traffic to be having a bad day.

Maybe he has a stressful meeting coming up, or his butler burned his bacon at breakfast. Maybe he's having trouble paying his rent, or his industry is under seige. All I know is that he's weaving in and out, giving people the finger and yelling at other cars, all at the same time.

Unlike cupcakes, anger isn't conserved.

If I have a cupcake and I give it to you, I don't have a cupcake any more. But if someone who is angry gives you their anger, now you both might have it.

You've seen it too many times before. Someone is afraid, untethered or just upset about something that happened long before you walked into the room. Unbridled agita is dumped on you, spittle flying, eyes wide, personal invective unfiltered. Just feet away, the angry person is saying, "here," and dumping vitriol in your direction.

All connection gets severed, any chance for positive engagement seems long gone. The opportunity, it seems, is to pick up some of that anger and throw it right back, where it came from.

And now, of course, both of you are having a bad day.

Shared anger destroys trust. It eliminates dialogue. It activates the lizard brain of everyone within earshot, and produces nothing of value.

No credit goes to the person who vents, who opens his spleen and shares his anger. No points for bravery or honesty or getting in touch with his feelings. Anger shared is not anger ameliorated.

Talk about it, don't talk with it. Point it out, and then leave it there, on the floor, where, unengaged, the anger can't help but wither and die.

       

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miercuri, 23 octombrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Workforce, Population, Jobs by Age-Group

Posted: 23 Oct 2013 07:53 PM PDT

Here are a few demographic-related charts of the workforce, civilian non-institutional population, and jobs, by age-group, from reader Tim Wallace.

Change in the Number of Jobs Since 1970



Civilian Non-Institution Population Since 1970



Workforce Since 1970



Percent of Population in Workforce Since 1970



Number in Age Group Employed



Percent of Age Group Employed Since 1970



Wallace writes ...

Mish,

The attached charts are eye openers.

Graph 1 Comments

The first chart shows the change in the number of jobs and the population since 2007. It shows us that in the 16-19 age group the population has shrunk by 239,000, while the number of jobs in this age group has shrunk by 1,415,000! In the 20-24 age group the population has grown by 1,625,000 while the number of jobs has shrunk by 362,000. For the under 25 age group we have 1,777,000 less jobs with 1,386,000 more people.

In the 25-54 age group that everyone always focuses on, we see a loss in population of 1,382,000 people since August of 2007, but an even greater loss in jobs - 5,940,000! Add to this the loss of 1,777,000 up above and we see the 16-54 age groups have lost 7,717,000 jobs since 2007. And, the population has basically been flat.

Since 2007 we have added 13,745,000 people to the population over age 55. We have also added 5,820,000 to the number employed in that age bracket.

Jobs were lost in every age bracket except the 55+, with 16-19 dropping 22.6%, 20-24 falling 2.6%, 25-54 going down 5.9% and 55+ going UP 22.7%!

Graph 2 Comments

The second graph shows the Civilian Non-Institutional Population by age - note the basic flat lines on all but 55+. The graph shows the Work Force by age - note once again only 55+ goes up.

Graph 4 comments

The fourth graph shows the number employed by age group. Note that only the 55+ group benefited in the current "Recovery". The other groups are all down from 2007, with 16-19 devastated. Just go in Walmart and McDonald's and you will see it first hand - senior citizen workers abound.

Graph 5 comments

The fifth graph shows the percentage of an age group that is employed. The percentage plunged in every age group except 55+.

Graph Six Comments

The last graph shows the percentage of the age group employed. It follows the exact trend of the fifth, as it must.

Those in sales and marketing you should focus on the 55+ age group. Forget the teenagers, they are contributing little, and their parents are sliding fast! Those in the 20-24 hope the  55+ start to retire, but in increasing percentages, they choose not to

Very interesting data, thanks to the BLS for giving us access to the ranges in the data base.

As usual, all data not adjusted for seasonality, just direct comparisons of actual data year on year.

Tim

The charts show something I have repeatedly said since 2008: "kids will be competing with their parents and grandparents for jobs that do not pay a living wage."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Germany Accuses US of Spying on Merkel’s Phone; Merkel Phones Obama; Why Should Any Country Trust the US?

Posted: 23 Oct 2013 02:19 PM PDT

The Wall Street Journal reports Berlin Says U.S. May Be Spying on Merkel's Phone
BERLIN—Germany said it believed U.S. intelligence may be spying on Chancellor Angela Merkel's cellphone, an intrusion that it said would constitute a "grave breach of trust" between the longtime allies.

Ms. Merkel called President Barack Obama on Wednesday and made clear that such surveillance among allies would be "fully unacceptable," her spokesman, Steffen Seibert, said in a statement released late Wednesday evening in Berlin.

Mr. Seibert said Ms. Merkel expected U.S. agencies to explain their overall surveillance practices against Germany, "questions that the German government asked months ago."
Merkel Phones Obama

The Spiegel Online reports Berlin Complains: Did US Tap Chancellor Merkel's Mobile Phone?
German Chancellor Angela Merkel phoned United States President Barack Obama on Wednesday to discuss suspicions that she may have been targeted by US intelligence agencies for years, SPIEGEL has learned.

The chancellor asked for a thorough explanation of serious indications that US intelligence agencies had declared her private mobile phone to be a target in their operations.

She "unequivocally disapproves" of such methods and finds them "totally unacceptable," her spokesman Steffen Seibert said. "This would be a grave breach of trust," he added. "Such practices must immediately be put to a stop."

The unusually strong reaction from the Chancellery was prompted by SPIEGEL research. After the information was examined by the country's foreign intelligence agency, the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), and the Federal Office for Information Security, Berlin seems to have found their suspicions plausible enough to confront the US government.

During her conversation with Obama, Merkel expressed her expectation that "US authorities would provide an explanation about the possible extent of such surveillance practices, and thus answer questions that the German government already posed months ago," Seibert said.

"As a close ally of the United States of America, the German government expects a clear contractual agreement on the activities of the agencies and their cooperation," he added.

In response to the allegations, a spokeswoman for the US National Security Council told SPIEGEL: "The President assured the Chancellor that the United States is not monitoring and will not monitor the communications of Chancellor Merkel."

The spokeswoman did not wish to specify whether this statement applied to the past.
Thank Whistleblower Snowden

We should all thank whistleblower Edward Snowden for many of the spying revelations now coming to light. I think he is a hero.

Unfortunately, as I noted in Hypocrites and Bullies Speak on "The Importance of Trust" president Obama and numerous bullies don't see it that way.
Hypocrites and Bullies

  1. Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff 
  2. Rep. Mike Rogers, Head of the House Intelligence Committee,
  3. Sen. Robert Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee

I would like to point out to all three gentlemen one important fact: Edward Snowden did not undermine trust.

There was no trust to undermine. All Snowden did was prove the obvious.

If there was any trust the US would not have been bugging the offices of the EU and Germany. If there was any trust, France would not be spying on us.

Bullies, Bribes, and Foreign Aid

Please note the bullying by US imperialists. Rep. Mike Rogers (R) proposes "to send a very clear message that we won't put up with this kind of behavior."

Excuse Me! What about unconscionable spying by the US on its alleged allies?

Countries should send a very clear message to the US that they will not put up with our severely misguided imperialism. And they probably would except they fear the US might cut off aid.

If you are looking for a reason very few countries have offered Snowden asylum (see Venezuela, Nicaragua offer asylum to Snowden; Double Standards and Hypocrite Allies), you now have an answer.

Thus, we can all thank Rogers for explaining that US foreign aid is really nothing but bribery so the  imperialists, war-mongers, and hypocrites can continue their ways with impunity, totally clueless they are the ones directly responsible for the undermined trust.
Question of Trust

Why Should Any Country Trust the US? They shouldn't, and the US is to blame, not Snowden. Is this about to matter? Let's hope so.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Measuring What Didn't Happen: Did Obamacare Cause an Increase in Part-Time Jobs? No Says Ritholtz, and Reuters; Yes, Says Mish

Posted: 23 Oct 2013 11:39 AM PDT

A friend sent me an article in Reuters today that claims Little evidence yet that Obamacare costing full-time jobs.
One in five businesses in the service sector think President Barack Obama's signature healthcare reform has hurt employment at their firms over the last three months, a National Association of Business Economics survey showed on Monday.

But there is little discernible impact in the employment figures released in recent months, including the September numbers out on Tuesday. The number of people with part-time jobs who want full-time work, for example, was essentially flat in September at 7.9 million.

The number of part-time workers spiked in 2008, well before Obamacare was enacted, and has been slowly falling as a share of total employment since 2010. In September people working part time because they could not find full-time work made up 5.5 percent of the employed, unchanged from August. The spike in 2008 and the steady drift downward since then suggests the elevated level of part-time workers is more likely due to the economy's weakness.
Did Obamacare Cause an Increase in Part-Time Jobs?

Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture Blog says "no" in his October 7 post Did Obamacare Cause an Increase in Part-Time Employment?
A reader emailed the following question about this weekend's WaPo column (ObamaCare: Investing Advice for Senator Ted Cruz):

"How can you make investment decisions about future returns in light of Obamacare driving so many workers to part time status?"

Ahhh, a classic bit of misdirection — an assumption built into a question. The first step in answering that is to verify the reality of that assumption: Has Obamacare actually caused an increase in part-time employment?

As you can see in the black line below, the number of part time workers spiked because of the Great Recession. It peaked and began to slowly reverse before the ACA [Affordable Care Act - Obamacare] was even passed.



No, there does not appear to be an increase caused by Obamacare.
Measuring What Didn't Happen

For now, let's assume the above chart from the Economic Policy Institute is correct. Does that imply there was no Obamacare effect?

Of course not, and Ritholtz should know better.

Even if the EPI chart is correct, it does not show what would have happened had Obamacare not passed.

Realistically, to determine the Obamacare effect, we need to measure what we didn't see (which is what would have happened in the absence of Obamacare).

I am inclined to believe what corporate CEOs are saying given strong evidence they did what they said.

Reuters reported "Many businesses polled by the NABE said they were holding back on hiring due to the costs imposed by the law. The survey also showed 15 percent of service sector firms planned to shift to more part-time workers due to Obamacare."

There is massive evidence that businesses increased part-time hiring due to Obamacare. There is massive evidence of other economic distortions as well.

Obamacare Economic Distortion Synopsis



  • October 10, 2012: Prepping for Obamacare, Olive Garden and Red Lobster Cut Workers' Hours; Are Other Companies Doing the same?
  • October 20, 2012: Mish Obamacare Mailbag: Expect More Part-Time Jobs
  • February 02, 2013: Obamacare in Action: Retail Workweek Hits 3-Year Low
  • February 19, 2013: Opting Out of Obamacare (the Unaffordable Health Care Act); Not Even Labor Unions Want It
  • May 3, 2013: Obamacare Affects Part-Time Employment Yet Again; Nullification Bill Passes South Carolina House; Analysis of Healthcare Penalty Rates
  • May 20, 2013: Obamacare Premiums 47% Higher But Deductibles 27% Lower Than Grandfathered Health Plans; Obamacare Lies
  • June 21, 2013: Obamacare Effects Hit Local Governments, Small Businesses, Temp Staffing Agencies; Chicago Dumps Retirees Into Obamacare
  • July 8, 2013: Trends in Full and Part-Time Employment; Obamacare Job Double Counting and Other Economic Distortions
  • July 12, 2013: "Win-Win" Situation for Employers to Not Offer Healthcare to Part-Time Employees; Now Ain't That Special?


  • OK Mish, Why Doesn't the EPI Chart Support Your Case?

    1. Perhaps the Obamacare distortions were masked over by other hiring trends.
    2. Perhaps the BLS data will be revised away later, showing what really happened.
    3. Perhaps the assumption we made earlier, "the EPI chart show by Ritholtz is an accurate reflection of the current state of affairs", is in fact, a bad assumption.


    Let's explore point number three. Please consider a chart of BLS data, taken from the St. Louis Fed (Fred) Website.

    Employed, Usually Work Part Time 2000-2013



    Let's hone in on that for a closer look.

    Employed, Usually Work Part Time 2008-2013



    Questions and Answers

    Q.What would the chart look like without Obamacare?
    A. Better

    Q. Was the Obamcare hiring effect delayed until 2012?
    A. Probable. That is when CEOs started complaining. That is when numerous restaurants cut back hours.

    Q. Will we see BLS revisions that make the reported data look worse?
    A. Probable

    Q. Does the Economic Policy Institute chart reflect reality?
    A. The chart from the St. Louis Fed is a closer approximation, but revisions are likely

    Q. Has Obamacare actually caused an increase in part-time employment?
    A. Absolutely.

    That is what the chart suggests (even before expected BLS revisions). That is what CEOs say. And that is what plain common sense suggests in the first place (even though we will not understand the full impact for years, if ever).

    Mike "Mish" Shedlock
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

    ECB President Mario Draghi Announces New Stress Tests; Translating "Draghize"

    Posted: 23 Oct 2013 08:06 AM PDT

    When it comes to stress tests, especially for European banks, the one thing history suggests is the tests will be essentially stress-free, by design. Why should this time be any different?

    Nonetheless, European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi Says ECB Won't Hesitate to Fail Banks in Stress Tests.

    Translating Draghize

    For those of you who do not speak Draghize I offer these translations.

    Draghize: "Banks do need to fail to prove the credibility of the exercise".
    Mish: We are carefully scrutinizing several non-critical banks, looking for a couple of scapegoats, hoping to fool the public regarding the credibility of the exercise.

    Draghize: "If they do have to fail, they have to fail. There's no question about that."
    Mish: If any big banks are in trouble. They won't fail. There's no question about that. 

    Draghize: "The test is credible because the ultimate purpose of it is to restore or strengthen private sector confidence in the soundness of the banks, in the quality of their balance sheets"
    Mish: The test is credible because we say it is.

    ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen: "This is our third and last chance to restore confidence after two previous stress tests by the EBA failed to do so."
    Mish: We are praying this stress test does not blow sky high as fast as the last two did.

    Draghize: "The region's governments will be ready to fill any capital holes that emerge as a result of the stress tests."
    Mish: The region's governments are totally unprepared to fill any capital holes that emerge as a result of the stress tests. 

    Draghize: "I have no doubt whatsoever that backstops will be there - - which doesn't mean that they will have to be used because first and foremost it's private money that needs to be used. There's an explicit commitment to have in place proper, adequate national backstops by the time the exercise is being carried out."
    Mish: Bondholders will not suffer as a result of any capital shortages in our hand-picked failures. If anyone needs to suffer, it will, as usual, be taxpayers.

    Draghize: "A substantial amount of private capital has been raised so we're not starting from scratch but certainly, it's the beginning of a new way of doing things."
    Mish: We are starting from scratch. Private capital is inadequate. This is of course why the tests must essentially be stress-free.

    To help explain why there will not be any capital shortfalls, please see New Rules for Italy Banks "I'll Guarantee Your Derivatives If You Guarantee Mine"

    Mike "Mish" Shedlock
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com