luni, 11 noiembrie 2013

Seth's Blog : The generous skeptic

 

The generous skeptic

If you've got a big idea, there's no doubt that you will run into skeptics along the way.

Many skeptics are afraid for you, embrace the status quo, and in their twisted but well-intentioned way, will work to persuade you to give up your dream. This sort of skeptic should be ignored, certainly. It doesn't really pay to argue with them, because your impassioned restatement of your view of reality will do little to persuade them that you're not doing something crazy risky.

The other kind of skeptic, though, should be treated totally differently.

The generous skeptic has insight into your field, your strengths and weaknesses. She wants you to succeed, but maybe, just maybe, sees something you don't.

When the generous skeptic speaks up, she's taking a risk. If you respond to her generosity by arguing, by shutting down, by avoiding eye contact or becoming defensive, you've blown it. You've taken a gift and wasted it, and disrespected the gift giver at the same time.

The alternative is to emotionally stand up and sit down on her side of the table. Egg her on. Imagine the world the way she sees it. Take her tactical skepticism and amplify it, pushing it to its logical conclusion. Instead of defending the flickering flame of your idea as if it might soon be extinguished, dump as much of this sort of skepticism on the idea as you can.

Not only are you honoring the generous skeptic when you do this, you're learning how to see the way she sees. Your job isn't to persuade her she's wrong, your job is to learn from this and buttress your project in a way that when it collides with the market, you're ready.

"Tell me more about that," is the useful and productive response, not, "no, you're wrong, you don't understand."

There's always time to ignore this feedback later. Right now, dive into it, with an eager, open mind. It's a gift you're not often offered.

       

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duminică, 10 noiembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Obamashock! Hits Employees of Sodexo, "World's Largest Quality of Life" Service Company

Posted: 10 Nov 2013 06:44 PM PST

Some employees of Sodexo, the "World's largest quality of life services company" have been hit with a massive case of "Obamashock!" because of the way Obamacare identifies part-time employment.

An email from reader "Mark" will explain.
Hello Mish

I thought you would be interested in another new angle regarding fallout from the ACA.

Yesterday we received a notice of cancellation of our eligibility in the large group health plan through my wife's employer.  They state that this is due to the Affordable Care Act.

My wife has worked for Sodexo, USA for about 3 years.Sodexo is a contract food service provider at literally thousands of institutions around the world. Her job is at a small private college in Iowa.

The notice we received states that, "Sodexo has aligned how we define full-time employees eligible for benefits with the Affordable Care Act". As such, she no longer qualifies as a full time employee, and can no longer be part of the benefit plan, as of January 1, 2014.

The new definition is that a full time employee must average 30 hours a week over the past 12 months. The cafeteria at a private college is not open 12 months of the year, and does not operate an average of 30 hours per week over 12 months. It is impossible to attain this number of hours when they are not available.

I am self employed. We will not qualify for any 'exchange subsidies'. She worked this just over minimum wage job solely for access to the health plan.

Now our options seem to be either to pay $19,600.52 per year for the COBRA plan, or $12,636 for an individual family plan with a deductible that is 3 times our current plan.

We are definitely in Obamashock!
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

ECB Following Path of Japan, Including Similarly Ridiculous Statements

Posted: 10 Nov 2013 07:29 AM PST

Rather than writeoff bad loans at European banks, the ECB has chosen the bury your head in the sand, extend-and-pretend path of Japan.

This is despite the fact the Japanese plan has taken multiple decades without producing meaningful results.

"More Room For Rate Cuts"

For example, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure says "ECB Can Cut Rates Further, Offer Liquidity".
The European Central Bank can trim interest rates further and provide the banking system with liquidity, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said on Saturday after last week's rate cut to a record low.

"We can still cut interest rates if needed, and as we said clearly last Thursday we can provide liquidity to the euro zone financial system if needed to ensure they don't have problems refinancing," he said on France Inter radio.

"All that's possible, but what counts is that the banks transmit the decrease in the cost of refinancing to the economy," he said.
What Good Can Additional Rate Cuts Do?

Let's be realistic. The ECB's lending rate is .25%.

Although the ECB can cut rates 25 more times, 1 basis point at a time, the idea that such a move can produce anything meaningful is ridiculous.

Japan made similar moves multiple times, cutting rates a few basis points at a time. It served no purpose other than to let the Bank of Japan say "we are acting". The BOJ never once added the truth "but it's meaningless".

And now Benoit Coeure makes the same useless statement, also without adding "rate cuts cannot do a damn thing for Europe".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

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Be blessed!
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Introducing myself to a new audience (for those who haven't seen my old videos) I just wanted to introduce myself and fill ya in on what what I'm doing to climb out of debt!
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Seth's Blog : The first lie...

 

The first lie...

is that you're going to need far more talent than you were born with.

The second lie is that the people who are leading in the new connection economy got there because they have something you don't.

The third lie is that you have to be chosen.

The fourth lie is that we're not afraid.

We're afraid.

Afraid to lead, to make a ruckus, to convene. Afraid to be vulnerable, to be called out, to be seen as a fraud.

The connection economy isn't based on steel or rails or buildings. It's built on trust and hope and passion.

The future belongs to those that care and those that believe.

       

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Three California Programmers Create Alternative Healthcare Website; Mish Checks It Out

Posted: 09 Nov 2013 04:15 PM PST

CBS Evening News reports S.F. programmers build alternative to HealthCare.Gov Website
On Friday, President Obama had this to say about problems with the Obamcare website during a speech in New Orleans: "I promise you, nobody's been more frustrated. I wanted to go in and fix it myself, but I don't write code."

But plenty of programmers do write code. And three of them have created their own website that addresses some of the most annoying problems with HealthCare.gov.

In a San Francisco office shared with other tech start-ups, three 20-year-olds saw HealthCare.gov as a challenge.

With a few late nights, Ning Liang, George Kalogeropoulos and Michael Wasser built "thehealthsherpa.com," a two-week-old website that solves one of the biggest problems with the government's site.

"They got it completely backwards in terms of what people want up front," said Liang. He added: "They want prices and benefits, so that they could make the decision."

Liang showed CBS News how it worked. "You come to our website and you put in your zip code -- in this case a California zip code. You hit 'find plans,' and you immediately see the exchange plans that are available for that zip code."
The CBS video interview is interesting.



Click on link at the top if video does not play.

Thanks to reader "Rick" for the link.

Not Quite Ready

I entered my zipcode, 60012,  and requested all plans for me alone - over 50, and no plans came up. I tried again with "you and spouse" and again no plans came up. Either they do not have all zipcodes entered or there are some other issues.

In my post Tips on Navigating Obamacare Costs on HealthCare.Gov - My Personal Experience - Obamashock! I noted there were 60 plans for McHenry County.

Perhaps they need to add "county" for some states.

Regardless, the website has a better interface and with a few bugs fixed, no one will need Healthcare.Gov, a website that cost taxpayers something on the order of $300 million.

I emailed the website developers and will post an update when I hear back. 

As is typical with government projects, it seems no one really knows for sure what the healthcare.gov costs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

ECB Caught Using Fictional Rating System for Italian Bonds Used as Collateral for Loans

Posted: 09 Nov 2013 10:26 AM PST

Spiegel online has an article on the non-transparent as well as fictional way the ECB treats Stripped Bonds (Strips) of Italian Banks handed over to ECB as collateral for loans.

Currently ECB rates various Italian Strips with an "A" rating, though no rating agency rates Italian bonds, let alone Strips, with an A.

ECB claims it is correct, because a tiny rating agency, DBRS, still rates Italian bonds with an A. However, DBRS said to Spiegel upon being questioned, that this particular rating was not to be applied to Strips.

Two hours later DBRS sent an email to Spiegel, claiming that they (Spiegel) must not use this information in public.

Via Google Translate from Der Spiegel, with thanks to reader Bernd, please consider The strange standards of the ECB
When it comes to the valuation of bonds, the ECB wants to be independent and transparent. But that manages to SPIEGEL ONLINE information, not always. In many Italian government securities, the central bank based on a credit rating that is not according to the rating agency for these bonds.

According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE, the European Central Bank (ECB) has very unusual standards when it comes to the valuation of government bonds, on deposit as collateral for loans. Specifically, it's about 116 Italian government bonds without coupon interest rate, known as stripped bonds or short strips. They are currently valued by the ECB and the Italian national central bank with a grade of "A" - although rating agencies actually do not assign that grade.

By assigning an "A" rating, the ECB favors those banks that submit such papers as collateral when they borrow money from the central bank. This especially favors Italian financial institutions.

In the evaluation of collateral, the ECB relies on the scores of the four rating agencies. While large companies S & P, Moody's and Fitch Italy have credit already on a "B" status downgraded, only the smaller agency DBRS, caries the "A" rating of 116 Italian Strips bonds.

The problem: The agency itself has told SPIEGEL ONLINE stated that their ratings are not applicable for Strips.

Stripped bonds are securities of a special kind: The offshoot of fixed rate bonds are sold to pay the revenue generated interest due to other securities. They also have a so-called zero coupon: The yield on these strips with some long term will only be paid when due, until then sees the investors in such securities no money. The profit of the investor resulting from the difference between the purchase price and the redemption at maturity of the bond. It is an investment that requires a lot of trust in the buyer's future solvency of the seller. In this case, the confidence of future Italian governments apply. And this must be long: 56 of these strips have remaining maturities of more than ten years, 30 of which are not paid 20 for years, the last three not until 2041.

Fitch rates 107 of the strips as 'B'. The classification used by the ECB should not be used. It's that simple.

Suddenly, DBRS Is Silent

Just three hours after the ECB's reply to the request by SPIEGEL ONLINE, another e-mail came from DBRS: Statements to SPIEGEL ONLINE should not be made public and DBRS would longer comment on this matter.

That's what you call an emergency brake.
Emergency Brake

More than a little pressure on DBRS by ECB president Mario Draghi, coupled with a distinct willingness of the ECB to look the other way? Ya Think? What other sleight-of-hand magic is the ECB making?

I used the word "Fictional" in the title of this post. "Fraudulent" seems more like it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com    

sâmbătă, 9 noiembrie 2013

Honoring America's Veterans

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured 

Weekly Address: Honoring America's Veterans

In this week's address, President Obama commemorates Veterans Day Weekend by thanking the brave men and women who have worn this country's uniform. The President says he is proud of their service and will do everything possible to ensure America always has their back and always honors their sacrifice.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Watch: President Obama's Weekly Address

 

 
 
  Top Stories

 

VA Serves One Millionth Post-9/11 G.I. Bill Beneficiary: On Friday, the Department of Veterans Affairs joined Dr. Jill Biden to celebrate the Post-9/11 GI Bill benefit and recognize the significant impact it’s had in helping Service members, Veterans and their families get a quality education and good jobs. 

They congratulated the 1 millionth beneficiary of this landmark program, who is a great representative of the Post-9/11 Veteran generation; which has sacrificed so much for our country. This GI Bill program is just one small way our nation can say “thank you” to these men and women for their service.

President Obama Talks Exports in the Big Easy: On Friday, President Obama traveled to the Port of New Orleans -- one of the busiest port complexes in the world and responsible for moving millions of tons of steel, chemicals, fuel, and food every year. The Port also handles, as the President noted, much of the country's coffee: "which means you're responsible for keeping the White House awake at all times."

The President spoke about the importance of investing in our infrastructure -- rebuilding our roads, bridges, and ports -- to create jobs at home, expand trade, and keep American businesses competitive: 

"Right now, exports are one of the brightest spots in our economy. Thanks in part to new trade deals that we signed with countries like Panama and Colombia and South Korea, we now export more goods and services than ever before. And that means jobs right here in the United States of America.

Last year, every $1 billion in exports supports nearly 5,000 jobs, including jobs right here at this port.  So we’re working on new trade deals that will mean more jobs for our workers, and more business for ports like this one.

And, by the way, when I travel around the world, I’m out there selling.  I’ll go anywhere in the world to make sure that ... those products stamped with those words, “Made in America” ... that we can open up those markets and sell them anywhere."

Read his full remarks here.

Shining a Light on our Researchers, Doctors, Nurses, and Caregivers: Earlier this week, the Vice President and Dr. Jill Biden hosted their 2nd Annual Breast Cancer Awareness Reception at the Naval Observatory. They were joined by survivors, caregivers, families, doctors, researchers, and advocates who have all been touched by breast cancer.

Read Dr. Biden's blog about the event here.

First Lady Michelle Obama Celebrates Diwali at the White House: On Tuesday, First Lady Michelle Obama welcomed guests to the White House for a Diwali celebration. The celebration started with the First Lady surprising local students at a Bollywood dance clinic and trying out some moves herself.

Then the First Lady spoke during a reception in the East Room:

“We’ve celebrated this holiday here at the White House every year since Barack took office. And there’s a reason why we've done that,” she said.

When we say that we want to make the White House the “people’s house,” we mean all people. We mean that we want to honor and embrace all of the many cultures and faith traditions that make us who we are as Americans. And Diwali is very much one of those traditions.

The Employment Situation in October: Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Jason Furman explains the five key points in Friday's October Employment report, including the fact that businesses have added jobs for 44 consecutive months, with private-sector employment increasing by 7.8 million over that period.

President Obama to Dallas Health Care Volunteers: "Nothing Is Going to Stop Us from Getting This Done." On Wednesday, the President traveled to Dallas, Texas, where he joined canvassers and navigators who are part of the community's most active group of volunteers working to enroll their neighbors in quality, affordable coverage through the Marketplace.

The President personally thanked them for their work, calling out the fact that ultimately, "all the politics, all the chatter sometimes leaves out the fact that the system we had -- the status quo -- just wasn't working for too many people."

"...Now what we’ve got to do is sign up those folks who don’t have health insurance and improve insurance for those who are under-insured, who don’t have very good insurance, and have been subject to the whims of the insurance company. And that’s what this is all about. And that’s the challenge that we’ve got over the next month, three months, six months, next year. And if we get that done -- when we get that done -- then we will have created a stable system in which there’s no reason why people shouldn’t be getting health care in this country."

You can read the President's full remarks here. 

The Time is Now: President Obama Meets with Business Leaders on Immigration Reform: On Tuesday, the President, Vice President and senior Administration officials met at the White House with a group of top U.S. business leaders to discuss the importance of commonsense immigration reform to bolster U.S. economic growth, and improve the climate for business, and job creation. These leaders shared with the President their desire to see our broken immigration system fixed, both because it is the right thing to do, and because it will be good for the U.S. economy.

In addition to the 7.5 million jobs created in the U.S. over the past three and a half years, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), over the next two decades, the bipartisan bill that has already passed the Senate would grow the economy by an additional $1.4 trillion, and shrink our deficits by nearly $1 trillion. The Senate bill would modernize our legal immigration system. 

 

 

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Seth's Blog : Your incoming--How do you process what's offered?

 

Your incoming--How do you process what's offered?

Your choice: should you come to that meeting, read those articles or go to this event? Should you have those expensive medical tests, have surgery or hire that consultant?

If someone stands up and shares a big idea, some people might run with it, others might not hear it at all.

If you're eager for change, every bit of information and every event represents an opportunity to learn, to grow and to change for the better. You hear some advice and you listen to it, consider it (possibly reject it), iterate on it and actually do something different in response.

On the other hand, if you're afraid of change or in love with the path you're on or focused obsessively on your GTD list, then incoming represents a distraction and a risk. So you process it with the narrative, "how can this input be used to further what I've already decided to do?" At worst, you ignore it. At best, you use a tiny percentage of it to your advantage.

Going to a brainstorming meeting with that attitude is a recipe for failure. Someone in the  meeting needs to shout, "Put down your spreadsheets and come out with your hands up!"

If you've already decided, if you have an incoming process that involves deflector shields, if you are too busy to do a reset, then the best path is not to take the meeting at all. Don't pay attention to test results and don't look for new learning.

Don't bother accepting new input if you have no interest in using it. (I happen to think that once you're committed to your path, this is in fact a brilliant approach. Halfway up Everest, it makes no sense to have a discussion about climbing K2 instead.)

       

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