Central Perk

marți, 10 decembrie 2013

The US No Longer Owns a Stake in GM. Here's What That Means:

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The United States No Longer Owns a Stake in GM. Here's What That Means:

At a time when the American auto industry was about to collapse, the President made the tough to decision to invest in it.

Today, the United States no longer owns a stake in General Motors, and the auto industry is thriving.

Click here to see the full graphic and the progress that we've made.

New: The MozCast Feature Graph - Tracking Google's Landscape

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 03:10 PM PST

Posted by Dr-Pete

Over the last year-and-a-half of tracking Google's daily "weather", it's become painfully clear to me that there's much more to future-proofing your SEO than just the core algorithm. From Knowledge Graph to In-depth articles, Google is launching new features faster than ever, and pages with nothing but ten blue links will soon be a memory.

So, we started working on a way to track how features change over time, and today I'm happy to announce the launch of the MozCast Feature Graph. It looks a little something like this:

Three tools in one

The Feature Graph is really three tools in one. The top graph shows a 30-day history of four major groups of features: Ads, Local, Knowledge Graph, and Verticals. The legend is color-coded to the bars at the bottom, which show the current density of each feature and the day-over-day change for that feature. So, for example, "Adwords (Top)" in the graph above shows that 77.9% of the queries tracked by MozCast displayed ads at the top the last time we checked them.

The third tool is my favorite, and the one that probably delayed this project the most. I've attempted to put some of the power of the raw data into your hands, and we've created a mini laboratory to find and preview SERPs.

The SERP mini-lab

Let's say you're looking for a SERP that has a Knowledge Graph entry, image results, and shopping results. Just check on the boxes next to those three features. As you add each feature, you'll see the "Matched Queries" box populate with a list of search terms:

Click on any of those queries, and you'll be taken to the corresponding Google search (parameterized to match the original capture as closely as possible). For example, if I click on "vespa", I get the following:

You can see the paid product placements and Knowledge Graph on the right, as well as the image results after the third organic listing. Note that these links are to live SERPs on Google.com â€" in some cases, the page may be slightly different from the one we visited the night before. This is especially true of AdWords placements, which can vary considerably from visit to visit.

When you select a feature or set of features, you don't just get sample queries - the 30-day graph at the top changes to match your search:

The lines on the graph now show the trends for each of the individual features you've selected. You can mouse over any point for the exact percentage on that day.

Bonus feature: new ads

There's one feature that works a bit differently than the rest. We've started tracking the prevalence of Google's new AdWords format, which is in large-scale testing but not fully live yet. The "New Ad Format" feature tracks the percentage of ads using the new format across the queries that displayed ads (not the entire query set). Please note that the new ad format is only rolled out for some users, so the search/preview function won't work properly (you may see the old ads). I've added this feature simply to track the roll-out over time.

Some technical notes

The Feature Graph is powered by the MozCast 10K, a set of 10,000 queries across 20 industry categories. Half of the MozCast 10K is delocalized and half is locally targeted (1,000 keywords each to 5 major cities). Local SEO features are measured only from the local data (5,000 total queries). All results are depersonalized.

A few thank-yous

I'd like to thank the inbound engineering team (Casey, Devin, and Shelly) for their help making this a reality, and our design leads, Daan and Derric, for hashing out a few ideas with me. Special thanks to Devin, who had the thankless job of translating my old-school PHP into something Moz-friendly that won't break 50 times/day.

Have fun with it

The Google SERP Feature Graph is live as of last night. This data has powered quit a few insights and blog posts over the past few months, and I'm excited to release it to the public. My hope is that people will use the tool to surface new SERP combinations and make their own discoveries. Let me know what you find.

Editor note: We had non-launch related outage of Mozcast around 12:30am PST, 12/10/13, if you had errors then. Service has been completely restored at 1:20am PST, and the new features are working. Enjoy.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

Seth's Blog : The sound of a small bell during a dark night

The sound of a small bell during a dark night

...is louder than the din of traffic outside your window during rush hour.

Surprise and differentiation have far more impact than noise does.

• Email to a friend •

luni, 9 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Detroit's Emergency Manager Threatens Pension Fund Takeover; Blame the Unions
Prisoner's Dilemma Game in Greece; Contagion-Spread Eurozone Breakup More Likely Now; How will Greece NOT pay back €320 billion?
Covered Employment Update: Employment vs. Federal Spending

Detroit's Emergency Manager Threatens Pension Fund Takeover; Blame the Unions

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 04:20 PM PST

Detroit's emergency manager Kevyn Orr says a pension fund takeover is a "right, if not an obligation" after Orr learned of extra, unwarranted pension payments.

Please consider Emergency Manager Weighs Pension-Fund Takeover.

Kevyn Orr said in a recent interview that at the current pace, the city's General Services System pension fund could lose its ability to pay pensions owed to current and future retirees within 12 years. A takeover is a "right, if not an obligation, that I have to consider under the statute, and we're considering that right now," he said.

Representatives of the pension board said Mr. Orr's figures were faulty.

The Oct. 25 draft report by the city's auditor general and inspector general, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, found that during the 12 years ended in fiscal year 2012, the pension funds paid $1.22 billion of interest credits into retirees' savings accounts while the funds had losses of $2.05 billion, or 29% of their net asset value.

Earlier this year, Mr. Orr unveiled a proposal calling for the city to pay 20 cents on the dollar for the $3.5 billion that the city says it owes its two pension funds, one for 20,500 nonuniformed retirees and one for 12,700 retired police and firefighters.

"When workers in Chicago and L.A. realize that their pension benefits are no longer inviolate, unions are going to say what they really want is not bigger benefits but better funding. And that's going to put enormous pressure on current budgets," said Robert Novy-Marx, associate professor of finance at the Simon Business School at the University of Rochester.

A person familiar with the matter said Mr. Orr would like to engineer a takeover of the city's General Retirement System for nonuniformed employees and retirees. Mr. Orr's office estimates that the fund has only 64% of what it needs to meet its obligations, while fund officials put the figure at 80%. The separate fund for the city's police and firefighters is in better shape, both Mr. Orr and fund officials say.

Michigan's emergency-manager law allows for the takeover of a municipal pension system that is less than 80% funded.

20 Cents on the Dollar

Twenty cents on the dollar sounds about right to me. But Orr ought to take over both funds. More importantly, new rules are needed.

From my Lesson for Union Dinosaurs post ...

I propose the final settlement should include ...

An agreement to end collective bargaining for all city workers
An end to defined benefit pension plans for new workers and also for workers with less than 10 years of service
A sustainable benefit model for existing workers with over 10 years of service, with pension plan assumptions equal to the long-term treasury rate
Automatic provisions for further pension cuts if plan assumptions were not met
An end to the right to strike for public safety workers
An end to all prevailing wage laws

Point number 4 highlighted in red would in theory allow the union to value the pension fund however optimistically it wanted.

Unfortunately, that would unfairly benefit those first on the totem pole (the already retired) over everyone else.

Mish's Eight-Point "Bold" Plan

On April 23, 2012 in Public Unions Bankrupt Illinois I proposed a similar "bold" plan.

Immediately kill public defined benefit plans going forward
End collective bargaining of public unions
Scrap prevailing wage laws
Tax at an 85% rate all defined benefits above $80,000
Claw back all pension-spiking
Lower corporate tax rates to previous levels to attract businesses.
Set long-term pension plan assumptions at 5% or the 30-year Treasury rate, whichever is lower (currently 3%).
Default, if necessary on pension benefits above a certain level, whatever it takes to make the state solvent within 10 years, using conservative pension plan assumptions.

Points 4, 7, and 8 are the critical ones.

The "bold" plan has considerable merits vs. an across the board 20 cents on the dollar offer of Orr.

I am not sure what the cutoff should be in point number 4. Perhaps it's lower or higher. It depends on plan funding.

It's the concept that is important. And I strongly suggest unions openly embrace the idea as being more fair.

What's Fair?

From Yahoo!Finance ... Juanita Sailes-Jackson, 64 years old, a Detroit retiree who worked as a typist and parking enforcement officer, said she opposed the idea of any takeover of the city's pension funds, because she believes the system works well. Ms. Sailes-Jackson, who collects $500 a month in pension, said, "I can't have any cuts because I wouldn't be able to pay most of my bills."

I don't know how long Sailes-Jackson worked to accumulate her promised benefit. Thus such quotes only exist to play on emotions.

But cuts are coming. And they should come, because the system clearly doesn't work! But how to distribute them?

Negotiated Settlements

The fairest possible thing to do is sit down at the table and negotiate a settlement, with everything taken under consideration, but with a 100% premise of no taxpayer responsibility.

As a starting point, I suggest, those with the least pension benefits get the smallest cuts, and those with the most benefits get the biggest cuts.

Indeed, if unions were smart, the majority could come to negotiated terms with a starting point along the lines of

No cuts in benefits for the bottom 30%
Small cuts in benefits for the next 30%
Big cuts in benefits for the top 40%, on a sliding scale

Such a negotiated settlement would be the fairest thing for everyone, pensioners and taxpayers alike.

Two Choices to Deal With "Collective Theft"

In Two Choices to Deal With "Collective Theft" I outlined the choice unions have to make, whether they like it or not.

Two Choices!

At this point, unions have two choices.

Negotiation ahead of bankruptcy
Negotiation in bankruptcy court

Bitching to Mish or About Mish, Not an Option

Notice that whining about history, praying for massive tax hikes, complaining to state legislatures, and bitching to Mish are not viable options.

Blame the Unions

Unfortunately, it's highly unlikely unions would ever do what I suggest. So, the most likely consequence is an across the board cut even if it means Sailes-Jackson collects $100 a month instead of $500, regardless of how long she worked.

When that happens, don't blame me, and don't blame Orr. Blame the unions (and the crooked politicians who went into bed with the unions).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Prisoner's Dilemma Game in Greece; Contagion-Spread Eurozone Breakup More Likely Now; How will Greece NOT pay back €320 billion?

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 12:34 PM PST

As a result of Troika-imposed austerity, Greece has a current account surplus that widened in September to over a billion euros.

This happened because demand for foreign goods collapsed in the wake of 27.3% overall unemployment and a shockingly high 57.9% youth unemployment.

The Coming Greek Default

In spite of a current account surplus, Greece's overall debt load is unsustainable.

Here are a couple of key details: Greece has €320 billion in sovereign debt. Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio is 174%.

Recall that the Troika considered anything beyond 120% unsustainable. Also recall that Greek debt was restructured twice to meet those targets.

The pertinent question is not "How will Greece pay back €320 billion?" because it can't and won't. Rather, the pertinent question is "How will Greece NOT pay back €320 billion?"

Two Possibilities

Default accompanied by an exit from the eurozone
Debt relief from Germany and the rest of the eurozone

For political consumption purposes ahead of the last federal election, German chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out more aid to Greece. That blatant lie was probably enough to hold support for the eurosceptic AfD party below the 5% threshold to make German parliament. AfD failed by 0.2 percentage points.

Had Merkel admitted the truth, it's hard to say how many more votes AfD would have gotten, but I suspect far more than 0.2 percentage points.

With election lies out of the way, the corollary questions for Germany now are quite similar.

Questions for Germany

Does Germany grant debt relief to Greece?
If so, how.
If not, when does Merkel admit she lied?
If not, when does Merkel admit the consequences?

Prisoner's Dilemma Game

This line of questioning creates a sort of Prisoner's Dilemma Game in which two individuals (in this case countries) might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interests to do so. Click on the link for prisoner's dilemma examples.

One way or another Germany is going to pay. Unless Germany forgives Greek debt, Greece is more likely than ever to default.

Why? Because Greece now has a current account surplus. It does not need to borrow money from foreign countries to finance its ongoing deficit (because there is no deficit).

Greece Strikes Back

The Financial Times reports Greece Strikes Back.

Ever since Greece entered its rescue programme in 2010, the relationship between Athens and its international lenders has been fundamentally unequal. Having lost access to the capital markets, the Greek government relied on the bailout funds to pay its bills.

With the public accounts edging closer to a primary surplus, the government feels it has a stronger hand to play. On Sunday lawmakers passed the 2014 budget without showing it to the IMF or the commission as demanded by EU rules. The vote sets the scene for a tense meeting when troika representatives return to Athens this month.

That Antonis Samaras, prime minister, feels the need to flex his muscles is understandable. His coalition's parliamentary majority is now wafer-thin after defectors refused to vote for more austerity measures. Opposition parties, such as Syriza on the left and Golden Dawn on the right, are gaining strength thanks to their pledges to renegotiate the rescue deal or even abandon the single currency.

Yet Mr Samaras should be careful not to overplay his hand. ....

Samaras Forced to Act Tough

The Financial Times warns Samaras. But what is Samaras to do? Note that Greek opposition leader looks to EU elections for mandate.

Alexis Tsipras, Greece's far-left opposition leader, said the Greek government will no longer have a mandate to run the country if his Syriza party finishes first in May's European parliament election.

He predicted that national elections would be held before the end of next year.

Mr Tsipras, who has vowed to scrap the country's €172bn bailout agreement with international lenders, said anger in Greece has grown since last year's national election when Syriza twice came close to becoming the country's biggest party in parliament – falling just short of the centre-right New Democracy party of Antonis Samaras, now prime minister.

Unless Samaras talks tough, Syriza would likely win the next election and may do so anyway.

Tsipras would one of the two major things that Greece needs to do: Tell the Troika "go to hell" then default. Greece also needs a tremendous amount of structural reforms, most of which none of the Greek political parties seems willing to address.

The key point is that as long as Greece runs a current account surplus, it can finance its way via taxation, without further Troika meddling.

Debt Relief or Debt Restructuring?

MacroPolis writer Jens Bastian asks Debt relief or debt restructuring for Greece?

The two economic adjustment programmes for Greece from 2010 and 2012 as well as the sovereign debt restructuring from April 2012 and the debt buyback initiative in December of the same year have had a significant impact on the debt profile of Greece as a sovereign debtor. Greece's creditor structure in 2013 compared to the point of departure in 2010 hardly bears any resemblance.

Prior to the conclusion of the first economic adjustment programme more than 85 percent of Greece's sovereign debt was held by private institutions. By contrast, following the twin debt restructuring and buyback exercise during 2012 over 80 percent of Greece's sovereign debt now rests in the portfolio's and budgets of the eurozone's member states, the ECB's and the IMF's vaults as well as on the balance sheet of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

While in 2010 Greek sovereign debt was primarily held by German[2], French, Italian, Swiss and Japanese banks, the combination of two rescue programmes and debt restructuring have fundamentally altered the ownership structure of and accountability for the accumulated sovereign debt of Greece from the private to the official sector. Greece's public creditors in Europe and Washington together now own roughly 84 percent of the country's 320 billion euros in debt.

Who will blink first?

Has this secondary migration process tied the hands of Greece as a sovereign debtor and created a prisoner dilemma for the Troika of international creditors? Who will blink first in the OSI debate? Who will continue to defend his privileged senior creditor status and insist on 100 percent payback?

It took no less than European Commissioner for Employment Laszlo Andor of Hungary to get to the heart of the matter. While he argued that Greece did not need a third bailout, Andor was honest to say that what Athens really needed was to be given debt relief. -

"What Greece needs today is not a third bailout, but a proper reconstruction plan, which inevitably starts with a significant (emphasis added) debt relief and continues with programmes that bring fresh investments" (Kathimerini 2013).

Greek Sovereign Debt History

The ECB, EU, IMF, and politicians in various countries managed to transfer 80% of Greek sovereign debt from private hands into public hands. In essence, they bailed out banks and put taxpayers at risk.

Calculating taxpayer responsibility percentages of various countries is simple enough.

Eurozone Financial Stability Contribution Weights

Country	Guarantee Commitments (EUR) Millions	Percentage
Austria	€ 21,639.19	2.78%
Belgium	€ 27,031.99	3.47%
Cyprus	€ 1,525.68	0.20%
Estonia	€ 1,994.86	0.26%
Finland	€ 13,974.03	1.79%
France	€ 158,487.53	20.32%
Germany	€ 211,045.90	27.06%
Greece	€ 21,897.74	2.81%
Ireland	€ 12,378.15	1.59%
Italy	€ 139,267.81	17.86%
Luxembourg	€ 1,946.94	0.25%
Malta	€ 704.33	0.09%
Netherlands	€ 44,446.32	5.70%
Portugal	€ 19,507.26	2.50%
Slovakia	€ 7,727.57	0.99%
Slovenia	€ 3,664.30	0.47%
Spain	€ 92,543.56	11.87%
Eurozone 17	€ 779,783.14	100%

The above table from European Financial Stability Facility

Three Key Facts

Greek sovereign debt is €320
Public ownership of Greek debt (counting IMF and ECB) is 80%.
80% of €320 billion is €256 billion

Two Key Questions

Who pays if Greece defaults?
In what way?

Countries Responsible if Greece Defaults

Country	Percentage	Greek Debt Responsibility in Billions of Euros
Austria	2.78%	7.104
Belgium	3.47%	8.874496
Cyprus	0.20%	0.500992
Estonia	0.26%	0.654848
Finland	1.79%	4.58752
France	20.32%	52.030976
Germany	27.06%	69.285632
Greece	2.81%	7.188992
Ireland	1.59%	4.063744
Italy	17.86%	45.721088
Luxembourg	0.25%	0.639232
Malta	0.09%	0.231168
Netherlands	5.70%	14.591488
Portugal	2.50%	6.404096
Slovakia	0.99%	2.53696
Slovenia	0.47%	1.202944
Spain	11.87%	30.381824
Eurozone 17	100%	256

Note that Greece can hardly be responsible for 2.81% (7.19 Billion) of its own debt so that amount needs to be distributed accordingly to make the percentages total 100%.

Otherwise, unless the IMF is willing to wave its debt, the numbers are approximately as shown.

Three More Questions

Given Greece's current account surplus, who really has the upper hand here?
Although Germany might be able to cough up €69 billion, where the hell is Spain going to get €30 billion?
Where the hell is Italy going to get €45.7 billion?

Should Spain suffer enough at the Troika's hands to also reach a current account surplus, it will be in a similar position to Greece. In other words, the structure of the eurozone is such as to cause a cascade of disorderly breakups as soon as countries eliminate their deficits.

Final Bonus Question

So Angela Merkel, when are you going to admit this setup, and what are you going to do about it?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Covered Employment Update: Employment vs. Federal Spending

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 01:43 AM PST

Here's some new charts from reader Tim Wallace on "Covered Employment" (working in a job eligible for unemployment benefits).

First a few notes ....

Typically, hours worked and wages paid to employees in covered employment are used as a basis in establishing unemployment benefits should an employee becomes unemployed by no fault of their own.

Self-employed people are not covered by unemployment insurance but we still have to pay into the system.

Covered employees are entitled to unemployment benefits if they earn enough wages and meet eligibility requirements of their state.

For example, the State of Washington requires 680 hours of covered employment to be eligible for unemployment benefits.

Covered Employment

Covered Employment Notes

Covered employment hit 128,673,493 in January 2002.
Since then, the working age population has grown by 30 million.
Covered employment was 133,902,387 in December 2008.
Covered employment is 130,396,096 now, a decline of 3,560,291.

Covered Employment vs. Federal Spending

Wallace comments "I divided the budget by 10,000 so both numbers can be graphed in the same chart. It is a slope reference at which I am looking. You can see that the slope of the budget is much steeper, part of which owes to inflation, but since the 1990's the Fed tells us that we have had inflation under control. The slope starts to steepen on spending in the early 2000's, then spiked in 2008 with the financial crisis."

Spending Per Covered Employee

Wallace comments "We are closing in on $30,000 spending per person working in covered employment."

Mish comments "We cannot discount self-employment because self-employed pay taxes as well. Nonetheless, these charts provide yet another indication of weak hiring as well as visual evidence that something is awry with the budget."

Also, when the next recession does hit, there are plenty of people who did not accumulate enough hours of covered employment to be eligible for benefits.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com