joi, 26 decembrie 2013

Mission ImposSERPble 2: User Intent and Click Through Rates

Mission ImposSERPble 2: User Intent and Click Through Rates


Mission ImposSERPble 2: User Intent and Click Through Rates

Posted: 25 Dec 2013 02:36 PM PST

Posted by CatalystSEM

It’s been quite a while since I first read (and bookmarked) Slingshot SEO’s YouMoz blog post, Mission ImposSERPble: Establishing Click-through Rates, which showcased their study examining organic click-through rates (CTR) across search engine result pages. The Slingshot study is an excellent example of how one can use data to uncover trends and insights. However, that study is over two and a half years old now, and the Google search results have evolved significantly since then.

Using the Slingshot CTR study (and a few others) as inspiration, Catalyst thought it would be beneficial to take a fresh look at some of our own click-through rate data and dive into the mindset of searchers and their proclivity for clicking on the different types of modern organic Google search results.

Swing on over to Catalyst’s website and download the free Google CTR Study: How User Intent Impacts Google Click-Through Rates

**TANGENT: I'm really hoping that the Moz community's reception of this 'sequel' post follows the path of some of the all-time great movie sequels (think Terminator 2, The Godfather: Part II) and not that of Jaws 2.

How is the 2013 Catalyst CTR study unique?

  • RECENT DATA: This CTR study is the most current large-scale US study available. It contains data ranging from Oct. 2012 â€" June 2013. Google is constantly tweaking its SERP UI, which can influence organic CTR behavior.
  • MORE DATA: This study contains more keyword data, too. The keyword set for this study spans 17,500 unique queries across 59 different websites. More data can lead to more accurate representations of the true population.
  • MORE SEGMENTS: This study segments queries into categories not covered in previous studies which allows us to compared CTR behavior attributed to different keyword types. For example, branded v. unbranded queries, and question v. non-question based queries.

How have organic CTRs changed over time?

The most significant changes since the 2011 Slingshot study is the higher CTRs for positions 3, 4, and 5.

Ranking on the first page of search results is great for achieving visibility; however, the search result for your website must be compelling enough to make searchers want to click through to your website. In fact, this study shows that having the most compelling listing in the SERPs could be more important than “ranking #1” (provided you are still ranking within the top five listings, anyway).

Read on to learn more.

Catalyst 2013 CTRs vs. Slingshot SEO 2011 CTRs

data table of Catalyst CTRs compared to Slingshot SEO CTRs

Since Slingshot’s 2011 study, click-through rates have not dramatically shifted, with the total average CTR for first page organic results dropping by just 4%.

While seemingly minor, these downward shifts could be a result of Google’s ever-evolving user interface. For example, with elements such as Product Listing Ads, Knowledge Graph information, G+ authorship snippets, and other microdata becoming more and more common in a Google SERP, users’ eyes may tend to stray further from the historical “F shape” pattern, impacting the CTR by ranking position.

Positions 3-5 showed slightly higher average CTRs than what Slingshot presented in 2011. A possible explanation for this shift is that users could be more aware of Paid Search listing located at the top of the results page, so in an attempt to “bypass” these results, they may have modified their browsing behavior to quickly scan/wheel-scroll past a few listings down the page.

What is the distribution of clicks across a Google SERP?

example Google search engine result page click distributions

Business owners need to understand that even if your website ranks in the first organic position for your target keyword, your site will almost certainly never receive traffic from every one of those users/searchers.

On average, the top organic SERP listing (#1) drives visits from around 17% of Google searches.

The top four positions, or typical rankings “above the fold” for many desktop users, receive 83% of first page organic clicks.

The Catalyst data also reveals that only 48% of Google searches result in a page one organic click (meaning any click on listings ranging 1-10). So what is the other 52% doing? Two things, the user either clicks on a Paid Search listing, or they “abandon” the search, which we define as:

  • Query Refinement â€" based on the displayed results, the user alters their search
  • Instant Satisfaction â€" based on the displayed results, the user gets the answer they were interested in without having to click
  • 2nd Page Organic SERP â€" the user navigates to other SERPs
  • Leave Search Engine â€" the user exits the Google search engine

How do branded query CTRs differ from unbranded queries?

Branded CTRs for top ranking terms are lower than unbranded CTRs, likely due to both user intent and the way Google presents results.

branded query CTRs vs. unbranded query CTRs

data table of branded and unbranded organic CTRs

These numbers shocked us a bit. At the surface, you might assume that listings with top rankings for branded queries would have higher CTRs than unbranded queries. But, when you take a closer look at the current Google UI and place yourself in the mindset of a searcher, our data actually seems more likely.

Consumers who search unbranded queries are often times higher in the purchasing funnel: looking for information, without a specific answer or action in mind. As a result, they may be more likely to click on the first result, particularly when the listing belongs to a strong brand that they trust.

Additionally, take a look at the example below, notice how many organic results are presented “above the fold” for a unbranded query compared to an branded query (note: these SERP screenshots were taken from 1366x768 screen resolution). There are far fewer potential organic click paths for a user to take when presented with the branded query's result page (1 organic result v. 4.5 results). It really boils down to 'transactional' v. 'informational' queries. Typically, keywords that are more transactional (e.g. purchase intent) and/or drive higher ROI are more competitive in the PPC space and as a result will have more paid search ads encroaching on valuable SERP real estate.

example branded search query v. unbranded search query result page

We all know the makeup of every search result page is different and the number of organic results above the fold can be influenced by a number of factors, including, device type, screen size/resolution, paid search competiveness, and so on.

You can use your website analytics platform to see what screen resolutions your visitors are using and predict how many organic listings your target audience would typically see for different search types and devices. In our example, you can see that my desktop visitors most commonly use screen resolutions higher than 1280x800, so I can be fairly certain that my current audience typically sees up to 5 organic results from a desktop Google search.

Google Analytics screen resolution of my audience

Does query length/word count impact organic CTR?

As a user’s query length approaches the long tail, the average CTR for page one rankings increases.

head vs long tail organic ctr

The organic click percentage totals represented in this graph suggest that as a user’s query becomes more refined they are more likely to click on a first page organic result (~56% for four+ word queries v. ~30% for one-word queries).

Furthermore, as a query approaches the long tail, click distributions across the top ten results begin to spread more evenly down the fold. Meaning, when a consumer’s search becomes more refined/specific, they likely spend more time scanning the SERPs looking for the best possible listing to answer their search inquiry. This is where compelling calls-to-action and eye-catching page titles/meta descriptions can really make or break your organic click through rates.

As previously stated, only about 30% of one-word queries result in a first page organic click. Why so low? Well, one potential reason for this is that searchers use one-word queries simply to refine their search based on their initial impression of the SERP. This means that the single word query would become a multiple word query. If the user does not find what they are looking for within the first result, they modify their search to be more specific, often resulting in the query to contain multiple words.

Additionally, one-word queries resulted in 60% of the total first page organic clicks (17.68%) being attributed to the first ranking. Maybe, by nature, one-word queries are very similar to navigational queries (as the keywords are oftentimes very broad or a specific brand name).

Potential business uses

Leveraging click-through rate data enables us to further understand user behavior on a search result and how it can differ depending on search intent. These learnings can play an integral role in defining a company’s digital strategy, as well as forecasting website traffic and even ROI. For instance:

  1. Forecasting Website Performance and Traffic Given a keyword’s monthly search volume, we can predict the number of visits a website could expect to receive by each ranking position. This becomes increasingly valuable when we have conversion rate data attributed to specific keywords.
  2. Identifying Search Keyword Targets With Google Webmaster Tools’ CTR/search query data we can easily determine the keywords that are “low-hanging fruit”. We consider low hanging fruit to be keywords that a brand ranks fairly well on, but are just outside of achieving high visibility/high organic traffic because the site currently ranks “below the fold” on page 1 of the SERPs or rank somewhere within pages 2-3 of the results.). Once targeted and integrated into the brand’s keyphrase strategy, SEOs can then work to improve the site’s rankings for that particular query.
  3. Identifying Under-performing Top Visible Keywords
    By comparing a brand’s specific search query CTR against the industry average as identified in this report, we can identify under-performing keyphrases. Next, an SEO can perform an audit to determine if the low CTR is due to factors within the brand’s control, or if it is caused by external factors.

Data set, criteria, and methodology

Some information about our data set and methodology. If you’re like me, and want to follow along using your own data, you can review our complete process in our whitepaper. All websites included in the study are Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) brands. As such, the associated CTRs, and hypothesized user behaviors reflect only those brands and users.

Data was collected via each brand’s respective Google Webmaster Tools account, which was then processed and analyzed using a powerful BI and data visualization tool.

Catalyst analyzed close to 17,500 unique search queries (with an average ranking between 1â€"10, and a minimum of 50 search impressions per month) across 59 unique brands over a 9 month timeframe (Oct. 2012 â€" Jun 2013).

Here are a few definitions so we’re all on the same page (we mirrored definitions as provided by Google for their Google Webmaster Tools)…

  • Click-Through Rate (CTR) - the percentage of impressions that resulted in a click for a website.
  • Average Position â€" the average top position of a website on the search results page for that query. To calculate average position, Google takes into account the top ranking URL from the website for a particular query.

Final word

I have learned a great deal from the studies and blog posts shared by Moz and other industry experts throughout my career, and I felt I had an opportunity to meaningfully contribute back to the SEO community by providing an updated, more in-depth Google CTR study for SEOs to use as a resource when benchmarking and measuring their campaigns and progress.

For more data and analysis relating to coupon-based queries, question based queries, desktop v. mobile user devices, and more download our complete CTR study.

Have any questions or comments on our study? Did anyone actually enjoy Jaws 2? Please let us know and join the discussion below!


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Politics

 

Hey everyone --

It's not exactly a secret that Washington hasn't worked as well as it should. Between the constant gridlock and partisanship, most people just tune this town out. That was especially true this year when the government literally shut down.

Yet, even in spite of all that, thanks to the grit of the American people, this country continues to move forward. After the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, folks are getting back to work and the economy is getting stronger.

And late this year, Washington took a cue -- and managed to make some progress itself.

While it's too early to declare a new era of bipartisanship, what we've seen recently is that Washington is capable of getting things done when it wants to. And there's an opportunity next year for this town to do its job and make real progress.

Here are just a couple areas where there's been progress made recently -- check them out, and then take a look at our full 2013 year-in-review.

For the first time in years, both parties in Congress came together and passed a budget. This budget doesn't include everything that everyone wanted -- but our economy will grow a little faster, be a little fairer for middle-class families, and create more jobs because of it.

Our businesses created 2 million jobs in 2013. That's more than 8 million private-sector jobs in just over 45 months.

The economy is growing. Just last week we learned that, over the summer, our economy grew at 4.1% -- its strongest pace in almost two years.

We've cut the deficit in half since 2009. That's four years of the fastest deficit reduction since the end of World War II -- and it means we're improving our nation's long-term fiscal position while strengthening our economy.

We produce more oil in the U.S. than we import from abroad. Thanks to an all-of-the-above strategy, we're reducing our reliance on foreign oil -- and that means lower energy costs for consumers.

The American auto industry is thriving. Last month, the auto industry added more than fifteen thousand jobs. And just a few weeks ago, the United States sold its final stake in General Motors.

Americans are getting better health coverage. Since October 1st, more than 1 million Americans have selected new health insurance plans through the federal and state marketplaces. And millions more are getting better health care thanks to increased protections and benefits.

There's a little less gridlock in Congress. Leaders in Congress took action so that executive and judicial nominees (except to the Supreme Court) can be confirmed with a simple majority vote. Now we're filling critical vacancies, and the government will work better for Americans because of it.

So while the politics in Washington can be frustrating and change takes time, that's no excuse for inaction. In the New Year, we need to help American businesses continue creating jobs, make sure Americans are ready for those jobs, and make sure those jobs offer the wages and benefits that give families a fair shot at financial security.

We also need to look out for those who are searching for a job. Congress needs to extend unemployment insurance, something we'll be making a priority when members come back to work.

There's a lot of unfinished business, but there are also things we can build on. If you saw some things in this list that you think more people should know about, then pass them on.

Thanks, and happy holidays.

Dan

Dan Pfeiffer
Senior Advisor
The White House
@Pfeiffer44


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rubodjrmx: "Bobobo - Capitulo 58 - Castellano - Español" and more videos

Seth's Blog : My most popular blog posts this year

 

My most popular blog posts this year

...weren't my best ones.

As usual, the most popular music wasn't the best recorded this year either. Same for the highest-grossing movies, restaurants and politicians doing fundraising.

"Best" is rarely the same as "popular."

Which means that if you want to keep track of doing your best work, you're going to have to avoid the distraction of letting the market decide if you've done a good job or not.

       

 

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Pettis on Debt, Malinvestments, Hidden Losses, and China's GDP

Posted: 25 Dec 2013 11:24 PM PST

Heading into 2014, Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets remains adamant that growth estimates for China are too high and that rebalancing (while necessary), implies lower growth than most expect. Via email ...
It is widely acknowledged that perhaps the most important reason to change the Chinese growth model is its excessive reliance on debt to generate growth. Debt has soared in recent years, to the point where many economists simply look at credit growth in the current quarter in order to determine what GDP growth over the next few quarters are likely to be.

But as China deleverages, growth in demand must drop sharply. After all, if economic growth over the past several years has been goosed by rapid credit expansion, deleveraging must have the opposite effect. It is strange that economists who acknowledge that the current growth model is overly dependent on debt have failed to understand that its reversal will have the opposite impact. If it did not, it is hard to explain why anyone would consider debt to be a problem in the first place.

If China currently has wasted significant amounts of investment spending, it is clear that much of the accompanying bad debt has not been written down correctly. Bad loans are almost non-existent in the banking system – that is they have not been recognized in the form of reserves or write-downs.

But the failure to recognize the loss does not mean that the loss does not exist. The losses implicit in the bad loans must (and will) be written down over the future, either explicitly, in which case they will result in a direct deduction to GDP growth, or implicitly, in which case they will require implicit and hidden transfers from one part of the economy or another (usually the household sector) to cover the gap between the "real" cost of capital and the nominal (subsidized) cost of capital. This transfer must reduce future growth.

The point here is that if credit is a problem in China – something no one doubts – it must be a problem because of wasted investment that has yet to be recognized, otherwise it would have resulted in negative GDP growth today. Failure to recognize the investment losses will, of course, artificially boost GDP growth today, but it must also artificially reduce GDP growth tomorrow as the recognition of those losses is simply postponed, not eliminated. The failure of many economists to recognize that wasted investment has a cost – even as they recognize that investment has been wasted – has caused them both to misunderstand the relationship between wealth creation and GDP and to understate the future impact of this overstated GDP.

Debt matters, and the only time it can be safely ignored is when debt levels are so low, and the borrower is so credible, that it creates no financial distress costs and has a negligible impact on demand. Neither condition applies in China, and so any prediction that ignores debt is likely to be hopelessly muddled. In fact I would like to propose a simple rule. Any model that predicts China's future GDP growth must include, if it is to be valid, a variable that reflects estimates of the amount of hidden losses buried in the banks' balance sheets. If it does not, it cannot possibly be a valid model to describe China's economy, and its predictions are useless.

China's astonishing growth during the past three decades is partly the result of a system that subsidized growth with hidden transfers from the household sector. These transfers are at the root of the current imbalances, and once reversed, so that China can rebalance its economy towards healthier and more sustainable sources of demand, the very processes that turbocharged growth will no longer do so.

If growth has been healthy and sustainable, there would be no need for Beijing to change its growth model – in fact it would be foolish to do so. If growth has not been healthy and sustainable, this is almost certainly because it has been artificially propped up, and if the reforms are aimed at unwinding the mechanisms that artificially propped up growth, then subsequent growth rates must be substantially lower.

Low interest rates, low wages, an undervalued currency, nearly unlimited access to credit for state-owned enterprises, a relaxed attitude to environmental degradation, and other related conditions were both the source of China's ferocious growth as well as of China's unprecedented economic imbalances. Reversing these conditions will rebalance the economy, but will do so while lowering growth in the obverse way that these conditions had accelerated growth.

One of the most obvious places in which to see this is in excess capacity in a wide range of businesses. It is clear that Beijing recognizes the problem of excess capacity. Here is Xinhua on the subject: Tackling excess capacity will be one of the top tasks on China's economic agenda in 2014, as the issue becomes a major challenge to maintaining the pace and quality of economic growth. "The Chinese economy still faces downward pressure next year," the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out on Friday, citing the capacity issue weighing down some sectors as one of the major challenges facing the world's second-largest economy.

It should be obvious that building excess manufacturing capacity, like building up inventory, is a way of propping up growth numbers today at the expense of tomorrow's growth numbers. Closing down excess manufacturing capacity must be negative for growth in the same way that building it was positive.

These three conditions, which are the automatic consequences of the reform process – deleveraging, writing down unrecognized investment losses, and reversing policies that goosed growth rates – must lead to much slower growth. In theory these conditions can be counterbalanced by an explosion in productivity unleashed by the reforms.

But this is unlikely to be the case. For the net impact of the reforms on growth to leave China's GDP growth unchanged, or even to accelerate, the amount of productivity that must be unleashed by the reforms is implausibly, even extraordinarily, high. What is more, the positive impact on productivity must emerge almost immediately. Longer-term productivity improvements – for example those generated by education, land, and hukou reforms, or reforms to the one-child policy, or a speedier and more efficient urbanization process – do not count.

I am so convinced that the implementing of these reforms must result in slower growth – if only because it is impossible to find a single relevant case in history in which the adjustment following a growth miracle did not include an unexpectedly sharp slowdown in growth – that I would propose that we can judge the forceful implementation of the reforms inversely with GDP growth. If China is able to impose an orderly adjustment quickly, its GDP growth rate will slow substantially for several years.

GDP growth rates of 7% or more, on the other hand, will suggest that credit is still rising too quickly and that China has otherwise been unable to implement the reforms, in which case China is likely to reach debt capacity constraints more quickly. Growth of 7% for the next few years, in other words, is almost prima facie evidence that China is not adjusting.

-------

I wish my readers a great 2014. This will be the last issue of 2013 before the holidays. Next year promises to be an exciting and unsettling one. Stay tuned.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Darlene Love - Christmas Wish

Posted: 25 Dec 2013 02:39 PM PST

Darlene Love has been appearing on the David Letterman Show every Christmas week since 1986, always singing the same song, 'Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)'. I watched most of them. I caught the 2013 version this year as well.

She is one of my favorite "girl group" singers from the 60's



1986 Rendition 

The productions now are quite spectacular vs. 1986. Here is the 1986 rendition.



Broadway World has many interesting details.
The legendary Darlene Love, who's become a Late Show with David Letterman holiday staple, returned to the hit show this week for her annual performance of "Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)" with Paul Shaffer. Love, who's appeared in Broadway's HAIRSPRAY and GREASE, first took to Letterman's stage in 1986.

From her first number one recording, "He's A Rebel," through her string of label hits with legendary producer Phil Spector, including "Da Doo Ron Ron," "He's Sure The Boy I'm Gonna Marry," and "Christmas Baby Please Come Home" to the countless songs she sang backup on for artists like Sam Cooke, Elvis Presley, Dionne Warwick, Cher,Luther Vandross and Aretha Franklin, Darlene Love is still blazing a trail of success in the music industry and has been nominated to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Her albums include Age of Miracles, recorded live in New York City, her first gospel album; Unconditional Love released by Harmony records.

Over the course of her career Darlene has been hailed as one of the greatest singers in pop music by such music legends as Cher, Better Midler and the legendary Luther Vandross. She has proven herself a talented actress as well on stage and screen, starring as Danny Glover's wife in all of the Lethal Weapon films and lighting-up Broadway in such musicals as Grease and the Tony Award-nominated Leader of the Pack. Darlene also starred for three years on Broadway as Motormouth Maybelle in the Tony Award-winning musical Hairspray.
Wikipedia notes
Darlene Love (Wright; born July 26, 1941) is an American popular music singer and actress. She gained prominence in the 1960s for the song "He's a Rebel," a No. 1 American single in 1962, and was one of the Phil Spector artists who produced a celebrated Christmas album in 1963.

She appears in the documentary film 20 Feet From Stardom (2013), which premiered at the Sundance Film Festival.

Early career

She began singing with her local church choir in Hawthorne, California. While still in high school (1959) she was invited to join a little-known girl group called The Blossoms, who in 1962 began working with producer Phil Spector. With her powerful voice she was soon a highly sought-after vocalist, and managed to work with many of the legends of 1950s and 1960s rock and soul, including Sam Cooke, Dionne Warwick, The Beach Boys, Elvis Presley, Tom Jones and Sonny and Cher; Darlene and the Blossoms sang back-up vocals on the Shelley Fabares hit "Johnny Angel", Sharon Marie (Esparza) (a Brian Wilson act), as well as John Phillips' solo album John, Wolfking of L.A., recorded in 1969. They also appeared on Johnny Rivers' hits, including "Poor Side of Town" and Motown covers "Baby I Need Your Loving" and "The Tracks of My Tears". (The Blossoms recorded singles, usually with little success, on Capitol 1957-58 [pre-Darlene Love], Challenge 1961-62, OKeh 1963, Reprise 1966-67, Ode 1967, MGM 1968, Bell 1969-70, and Lion 1972.)

Hurriedly recorded and released by Spector in November 1962 under the name of The Crystals in order to get his version of the Gene Pitney song onto the market before that of Vikki Carr, the single "He's a Rebel" actually featured Love singing lead for the first time on a Spector recording, backed by The Blossoms. The ghost release of this single came as a total surprise to The Crystals who were an experienced and much traveled girl harmony group in their own right, but they were nevertheless required to perform and promote the new single on television and on tour as if it were their own. The less successful "He's Sure The Boy I Love" was the only other release by Spector under the name of The Crystals which featured Love on vocals again backed by the Blossoms.

Subsequently Love recorded "Today I Met The Boy I'm Gonna Marry" which was released as a single by Spector, and now featured Love's name as the artist. She says that Spector offered $3,000 for her rights to the song. And though he said it was going to be a hit, she took the money. But, in spite of that decision, she said that she has continued to have a career because people have loved hearing her sing her songs. She was also part of a trio called Bob B. Soxx & the Blue Jeans, who recorded a cover version of "Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah", an Oscar-winning song from the 1946 Walt Disney film, Song of the South, which got into the Top 10 in 1963. The Blossoms landed a weekly part on Shindig!, one of the top music shows of the era. They were part of the highly acclaimed Elvis Presley's '68 Comeback Special, which aired on NBC.

"Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)" is a song by Darlene Love from the 1963 holiday compilation album, A Christmas Gift for You from Phil Spector. The song was written by Jeff Barry and Ellie Greenwich, along with Phil Spector, with the intention of being sung by Ronnie Spector of The Ronettes. According to Love, Ronnie Spector was not able to put as much emotion into the song as needed. Instead, Love was brought into the studio to record the song, which became a big success over time and one of Love's signature tunes.
Wikipedia has many more details on TV, Broadway, and Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays

From Me: Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and your loved ones.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays

Posted: 25 Dec 2013 11:11 AM PST

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and your loved ones. Mish