Central Perk

miercuri, 8 ianuarie 2014

Seth's Blog : Trapped by tl;dr

Trapped by tl;dr

TL;DR is internet talk for "too long; didn't read". It's also a sad, dangerous symptom of the malfunctions caused by the internet tsunami. (Here's a most ironic example of this paradox...)

The triathlete doesn't look for the coldest bottle of water as she jogs by... she wants it fast and now. That mindset, of focusing merely on what's fast, is now a common reaction to many online options. I think it works great for runners, not so well for learners.

There's a checklist, punchline mentality that's dangerous and easy to adopt. Enough with the build up, wrap this up, let me check it off, categorize it and quickly get to the next thing... c'mon, c'mon, too late, TL;DR...

Let's agree on two things:

1. There are thousands of times as many things available to read as there were a decade ago. It's possible that in fact there are millions as many.

2. Now that everyone can write, publish, email you stuff and generally make noise, everyone might and many people already are.

As a result, there's too much noise, too much poorly written, overly written, defensively written and generally useless stuff cluttering your life.

When we had trusted curators it was easy. We read what we were supposed to read, we read what we trusted, regardless of how long it was, because the curator was taking a risk and promising us it was worth it. No longer. Now, it's up to us.

One option is to read incisively, curate, edit, choose your sources carefully. Limit the inbound to what's important, not what's shiny or urgent or silly.

The other option is to assume that you already know what you need to know, and refuse to read anything deeply. Hide behind clever acronyms, flit from viral topic to flame war, never actually diving in. It appears that this is far more common than ever before.

Here's what I've found: When I read in checklist mode, I learn almost nothing. It's easy to cherry pick the amusing or the merely short, but it's a quick thrill with very little to show for it.

Judging by length is foolish. TL;DR shows self-contempt, because you're ignoring the useful in exchange for the short or the amusing. The media has responded to our demand by giving us a rising tide of ever shorter, ever more amusing wastes of time. Short lowers the bar, but it also makes it hard to deliver much.

Please, give me something long (but make it worth my time.)

Perhaps a new acronym: NW;DR (not worthwhile; didn't read) makes more sense. We've got plenty to choose from, but what we need is content that's worth the effort.

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Hollande Wants to "Get Things Done" by Decree, Not by Passing Laws
102 Police and Firefighters Caught in Disability Scam
Fund Flow Records Smashed: Equity Funds Get Record $352 Billion Inflow, Bond Funds Lose Record $86 Billion
Google Glass: An Apps to "Glassholes" Review; Borglike or Beautiful? Virtual Reality Contact Lenses

Hollande Wants to "Get Things Done" by Decree, Not by Passing Laws

Posted: 07 Jan 2014 11:43 PM PST

Via translation from Les Echos, inquiring minds may be interested to note Holland wants to "get things done" in 2014 by decree or order, not by passing laws.

The first cabinet meeting of the year was held on Friday. François Hollande recalled the objective of reducing public deficits, without new taxes.

To get things done despite a 2014 parliamentary calendar constrained by elections (local and European), Hollande called on ministers to pass laws only when strictly necessary, and to advance policy in other ways: by decrees or orders, said Najat Belkacem-Vallaud, minister of women's rights and governments spokesperson, leaving the first Council of Ministers.

The decree is an instrument made by the President or the Prime Minister, which specifies the conditions for the application of a law.

The order is mentioned in the Article 38 of the Constitution: "the Government may, for the implementation of its program, ask Parliament for permission to make orders for a limited time, measures that are normally the domain of the law." An order comes into force upon its publication, but gets legislative value when it is ratified by Parliament.

Well, let's just issue orders, then hope parliament gives legislative approval later.

Two Questions

Was president Obama inspired by Hollande or was Hollande inspired by Obama?
Why have parliament, or Congress, if this is the ways the legislative process works?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

102 Police and Firefighters Caught in Disability Scam

Posted: 07 Jan 2014 04:26 PM PST

In what I believe amounts to a mere 100th of a percent of the disability fraud problem, CNBC reports About 100 people accused in NYC disability scam.

More than 100 people were rounded up and arrested Tuesday morning as part of a massive investigation into disability fraud in the New York City area, authorities said Tuesday.

The alleged ringleaders, which included 83-year-old Raymond Lavallee, a former Nassau County assistant district attorney, and retired police officer John Minerva, surrendered to the Manhattan District Attorney's office, according to prosecutors.

Approximately 80 additional police and firefighters, mostly from the tri-state area but some from as far away as Florida, also were arrested in the multiagency sweep that started at 5:30 a.m.

Most of the police and firefighters arrested are former New York City workers, prosecutors said.

Millions in claims over decades, prosecutors say

According to the allegations, police and firefighters falsely claimed stress-related illnesses to pocket tens of millions of dollars in disability benefits. Many of the suspects also received 9/11 pensions, sources said. As the case unfolds with potentially more arrests, the fraud dollar amount could rise even further, authorities said.

From swordfishing to martial arts

The Manhattan DA's office also released pictures of several suspects, who received hundreds of thousands of dollars in benefits. In one picture, a man named Richard Cosentino is seen on a boat and swordfishing. He received $207,639.70 in payments, according to prosecutors.

Another image shows Louis Hurtadoin inside a martial arts photo. He pulled in $470,395.20, prosecutors say. And in yet another photo, a man named Glenn Lieberman is sitting on a WaveRunner, with both middle fingers raised, smiling into the camera. He received $175,758.40 in benefits, according to prosecutors.

A spokesman for the NYFD union declined to comment.

At best the union will choose not to respond. More likely, the union will protest the arrests when the story dies down, just as unions protect child molesters in LA and New York.

See the LA Times article L.A. Unified pays teachers not to teach.

Also consider Student exodus in Michigan school district where teachers defended child molester.

Please check out the above link, it's really quite amazing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Fund Flow Records Smashed: Equity Funds Get Record $352 Billion Inflow, Bond Funds Lose Record $86 Billion

Posted: 07 Jan 2014 11:10 AM PST

In yet another example of the extreme bubble optimism regarding equities, Trim Tabs reports (via email), Fund Flow Records Smashed Across the Board in 2013.

TrimTabs Investment Research reported today that U.S.-listed equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds took in a record $352 billion in 2013, smashing the previous record inflow of $324 billion in 2000. Meanwhile, U.S.-listed bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds redeemed a record $86 billion, topping the previous record outflow of $62 billion in 1994.

"The Fed finally succeeded last year in its long-running campaign to coax fund investors to speculate," said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs. "The 'great rotation' that some market strategists long anticipated is under way."

In a note to clients, TrimTabs explained that U.S. equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds received $156 billion in 2013, the first inflow since 2007 and the biggest inflow since the record inflow of $274 billion in 2000. Global equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds received $195 billion, edging past the previous record inflow of $183 billion in 2006.

"Retail investors are particularly enthusiastic about non-U.S. stocks, which should make contrarians wary," said Santschi. "Global equity mutual funds took in $137 billion last year, which was more than seven times the inflow of $18 billion into U.S. equity mutual funds. These highly disproportionate inflows occurred even though non-U.S. stocks as a whole badly lagged U.S. stocks."

TrimTabs also reported that bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds redeemed $86 billion last year, the first outflow since 2004 and the biggest outflow on record, surpassing the previous record outflow of $62 billion in 1994.

"Bond funds have suffered seven consecutive months of redemptions for the first time since late 1999 and early 2000," noted Santschi. "Nevertheless, the outflow of $196 billion in the past seven months reverses just a fraction of the inflow of $1.20 trillion from 2009 through 2012."

It's fitting that the previous record was set in 2000, right at the top of the dotcom bubble.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Google Glass: An Apps to "Glassholes" Review; Borglike or Beautiful? Virtual Reality Contact Lenses

Posted: 07 Jan 2014 10:10 AM PST

A link about a new app by Hyundai got me thinking about Google Glass.

What is Google Glass?

Google Glass is a voice activated computer eye-wear system capable of many voice activated functions such as photography, videos, navigation (better than and easier to use than car GPS systems), hands-free internet, and automatic translation of menus in foreign languages.

Many apps are available and more are coming.

Hyundai released an app for "pre-driving". Google Glass is likely to replace car GPS navigation systems at some point, and it's great car companies are looking in that direction.

The rest of the car manufacturers will follow, and probably are already.

Images

The product is currently in beta mode, with early users reporting on their experiences.

Some initial users loved it, some hated it or grew to hate it, and some were bored with it after the initial excitement wore off. Still other users complained that people were suspicious of them while wearing Google Glass.

Different arouses suspicion say one "Glasshole" about his trial.

Google Vision

I am an eyeglass wearer which got me to thinking about just plain glass - as in eye glasses. How many people have truly horrific vision, so bad that eye glasses can only offer partial correction?

I have a friend with 20-200 vision after correction.

Could "Google Vision" project an image to a person's eyes in precisely the manner required to overcome whatever extremely poor eyesight one had?

Better than eyeglasses can?

I suspect "Google Vision" could correct for brightness, astigmatism, and severely distorted eye shapes that currently take inch-thick lenses to correct, and then only partially.

For the vision function, an image would have to be projected into each eye, perhaps requiring two photographic lenses, perhaps a single photographic lens and two projector lenses.

Borglike or Beautiful?

If people are treated like Martians, "Glassholes" or Borgs for having a single Google Glass camera above one eye, what would happen to those with lenses sitting over both eyes (the way vision actually works)?

Yet, as I browse through images of Google Glass wearers, many are far more beautiful than "borglike".

Of course, no matter how people are treated now, if enough people start wearing Google Glass when prices fall (and prices will fall), the stigma of "Google Glass" would likely wear off quickly.

Virtual Reality Contact Lenses

And what if there were no glass at all, just contact lenses?
You would not be able to talk to your contact lenses, but CNet reports Augmented-reality contact lenses to be human-ready at CES

Anyone who has ever dreamed up a sci-fi future in which neon interfaces float in front of us and information exists not on screens, but projected onto our eyes, is likely watching the blossoming wearable technology market with great anticipation. With its iOptik system, wearables startup Innovega has sighted in on that futuristic vision, designing special contact lenses that will read the light from projectors fitted to glasses. In doing so, it's inching closer to a product that may rival even Google in its wearable ambition.

"Whatever runs on your smartphone would run on your eyewear," Willey said in an interview with CNET. "At full HD. Whether it's a window or immersive."

The contact lenses can also serve the purpose of vision correction as normal contact lenses do. That means those already using them -- a growing fraction of the global population that relies on vision correction that also, Innovega claims, includes more than 100 million contact lens users -- can swap them out for prescription Innovega lenses. The company will rely on a partnership with a major contact lens manufacturer, though has not yet disclosed the status of any relationships with any eyewear companies.

In addition to contact lenses, Innovega also has something that looks similar to Google Glass. Here is an image.

Inquiring minds may be interested in some articles and videos about "Google Glass".

Video: How It Feels Wearing Google Glass
Video: Google Glass User Guide
Inventor of 'Winky' App Explains: What It's Like to Use
Hipster Review: Williamsburg Hipsters Pass Their Own Minority Report
Hyundai App: Hyundai to Add App for Google Glass Into Vehicles
Treadmill App: New smart treadmill controlled by Google Glass
Wedding Experience: Bride Walks Down the Aisle With Google Glass
"Glasshole" Experience: I, Glasshole, My Year With Google Glass

Final Thoughts

I would like to test out "Google Glass" or the Innovega iOptik System provided I don't have to pay for the privilege. It would have to fit on top of the glasses I normally wear, but some of the images suggest that is already possible.

User Robert Scoble says Google Glass is Doomed.

I will take the other side of that bet. I can think of all kinds of apps.

Virtual Reality Sharing

What about virtual reality sharing? One person wearing Google Glass can share their experience with a group of others far away. What one person sees, everyone sees, as if they were there, real time. That app alone has numerous possibilities.

Want to know what it's like to climb Mt. Everest? The possibility awaits, and many would pay for the experience, without going through the cold and training of being there.

I suspect everything I have thought of is already being worked on. Google Glass will evolve in more ways than people can imagine.

Wine Country Conference II

The second annual Wine Country Conference will be held May 1st & 2nd, 2014.

We have an exciting lineup of speakers for this year's conference.

John Hussman: Founder of Hussman Funds, Director of the John P. Hussman Foundation which is dedicated to providing life-changing assistance through medical research
Steen Jakobsen: Chief Economist of Saxo Bank
Stephanie Pomboy: Founder of MacroMavens macroeconomic research
David Stockman: Ronald Reagan's budget director, best-selling author, former Managing Director of The Blackstone Group
Mebane Faber: Co-founder and the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management
Jim Bruce: Producer, Director, and Writer of Money For Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve
Chris Martenson: Reknown speaker and founder of Peak Prosperity
Mike "Mish" Shedlock: Investment advisor for Sitka Pacific and Founder of Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

In addition, we expect confirmation from a number of other highly respected fund managers and speakers. This year's event is two days and will include additional "break-out" groups.

For speaker bios, please check out Wine Country Conference Speakers.

This Year's Cause: Autism

$100,000 of the money raised last year came from a generous matching grant from the John P. Hussman Foundation.

Some of us in the industry who have done well are making an effort to give something back. John Hussman is at the very top of that list.

One of John's kids has severe autism. This year, all net proceeds will go to support autism programs.

Conference Details

For further details about the 2014 conference, please see Wine Country Conference May 1st & 2nd, 2014

Nothing Like It!

This event is not just another "come and hear someone talk" kind of thing. Attendees and their significant others can expect an educational, fun, and relaxed time.

Last conference, we arranged wine tours. They were a big hit. We will do so again. One of the wine estates we visited had a Bocce Ball court. On a couple of miracle shots, I won both games I played.

Stay an extra day and golf or travel. I did. The conference hotel is a fun place in and of itself.

Unlike many other conferences, you will have easy access to speakers.

Want to chat with me, Steen, John, or anyone else at the conference? You will have an easy chance.

Not only do we have an excellent lineup of speakers, you will have an opportunity to meet with them, have intimate discussions on important investment topics, with a lot of fun on the side, including wine tours and great wine.

There's nothing like it in the investment business. And your money goes to a great cause! What can be better?

Register Now for Discount

We extended our $200 "early bird" discount through January 10, for those who register early. There will be no further extensions. Please Register Now!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

marți, 7 ianuarie 2014

Damn Cool Pics

The World Needs More People Like This

Posted: 07 Jan 2014 11:59 AM PST

Why Is It So Important to Extend Emergency Unemployment Insurance?

Featured

Why Is It So Important to Extend Emergency Unemployment Insurance?

Unemployment insurance is a vital economic lifeline for millions of Americans who are looking for work -- and because Republicans in Congress failed to act at the end of 2013, that lifeline was taken away from 1.3 million Americans. They can fix this before it affects millions more.

Take a closer look at why this matters: