Central Perk

duminică, 26 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Start of a Global Currency Crisis?
Mid-Level Manager at Target Responds to Mish Part-Time Job Thesis
Were You Aware the NFL is Treated as Non-Profit and thus Exempt From Taxes? Should it Be?

Posted: 26 Jan 2014 09:29 PM PST

In Emerging Market Contagion Spreads, I presented a viewpoint that emerging market currencies have been under pressure because of falling commodity prices.

Commodity exporter currencies such as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Brazilian Real have been under pressure for the same reason.

Yen Connection

In addition to the commodity collapse thesis, Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog throws Abenomics into the mix of possible causes of the Currency Massacre in Emerging Markets.

Both Venezuela (socialist worker's paradise) and Argentina (nationalist socialist paradise) have a problem with their foreign exchange reserves. In both cases it stems from trying to keep up the pretense that their currencies are worth more than they really are.

Since they have maintained artificial exchange rates – coupled with capital controls, price controls and other coercive and self-defeating economic policies – people have of course felt it necessary to get their money out any way they can. This includes making use of every loophole that presents itself, so that e.g. in Venezuela, so-called 'dollar tourism' has developed, whereby citizens travel abroad for the express purpose of using their credit cards to withdraw the allowed limit in dollars at the official exchange rate [then buy goods or bring back the cash to exchange on the black markets at much higher rates].

Now the governments of both Venezuela and Argentina have reacted – the former by introducing a 'second bolivar exchange rate' for certain types of exchanges, the latter by stopping to defend the peso's value in the markets by means of central bank interventions.

To be fair, quite a few emerging market currencies as well as the currencies of developed countries that are large commodity exporters have been under pressure for some time. The Indonesian rupiah has basically crashed, the South African Rand and the Brazilian real have fallen to their weakest levels since the 2008/9 crisis sell-off, and even the Canadian and Australian dollar look a bit frayed around the edges these days.

We cannot help thinking that all this upheaval is the prelude to a more serious denouement down the road – perhaps sooner than most people currently think.

One of the sources of all this recent trouble is quite possibly Japan's decision to inflate with the help of a generous dose of 'QE' and deficit spending. Although the yen's anticipatory move lower could so far not really be justified by actual money supply growth, the fact remains that it did decline rather sharply. This in turn has put pressure on Japan's competitors in Asia, which in turn has put pressure on their suppliers in commodity-land and has altered capital flows, etc.

Recall that the Asian crisis of the late 1990s was preceded by a devaluation in China, after which the yen started weakening rather precipitously as well. Of course the situation was different in that many of the countries hit by the crisis had their currencies pegged to the dollar at the time, but the point remains that a weakening yen preceded the event. A parallel is that there are once again quite a few countries that sport large current account deficits and have experienced major credit and asset booms. In short, there are many balloons waiting for a pin.

No US Hyperinflation

While misguided US hyperinflationists predicted the collapse of the US dollar, I expected a collapse in commodity exporter currencies. Please see my November 8, 2011 article Perfect Storm; Eight Reasons to be Bullish on the US Dollar.

I also expected a slowdown in China, a plunge in the Yen, and a currency crisis not related to a sinking US dollar (See March 12 2012 article Japan's Debt Disaster and China's Non-Rebalancing Act: Economic Toxic Brew Portends Currency Crisis).

Here we are, with still other currencies in the problem mix. Consider this chart of the Turkish Lira.

Turkish Lira vs. US Dollar

Since mid-2008 the Lira collapsed from 1.03 to 2.45 to the US dollar, a collapse of 58%. Turkey's deputy prime minister Ali Babacan Blames Fed Tapering.

Babacan said the central bank was taking the necessary steps to deal with the situation, and said Turkey was protected against the swings in the market by its sound finances.

"The balance sheet of the government, the banks and households are quite well protected against market volatility."

Turkey-Greece Connection

ZeroHedge notes Turkey's liabilities have multiplied dramatically in recent years with over $350 billion of foreign bank exposure on an ultimate risk basis.

According to Gavekal, as quoted by ZeroHedge ...

Turkey is not, however, showing any signs of stabilization. The lira continues to fall, and policymakers are doing little to contain the situation.
Not only is its current account deficit at nearly 8% of GDP - the highest in the MSCI's emerging markets universe—but the country is also geographically closer and thus more dependent on the eurozone, whose economic recovery is painfully slow. Its political situation is also clearly very unstable.
Already fragile Greece is particularly exposed to the Eurasian republic. Turkish credit as a proportion of total Greek bank assets stands at over 5%, compared to 0.7% for the next two largest (Dutch and UK banks).

It's difficult to know whether this is the start of a major currency crisis or if central banks can paper over these imbalances still another time, but things sure are heating up rather quickly on numerous currency fronts at once.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mid-Level Manager at Target Responds to Mish Part-Time Job Thesis

Posted: 26 Jan 2014 12:27 PM PST

My part-time job thesis is easy to describe:

Obamacare exacerbated the already ongoing trend towards more part-time employment by lowering the definition of full-time employment to 30 hours.
As a result, companies reduced employee hours from 32-34 to 25-29.
In turn, workers picked up extra part-time or weekend jobs with minimal hours, to help make ends meet.

A few days ago, Target made the claim it would not reduce employee hours because of Obamacare. See Target Drops Healthcare Coverage for Part-Time Workers, Claims No Reduction in Hours.

My response was that Target was disingenuous, and that the only way it would not reduce hours due to Obamacare is if it already did so well in advance.

A Home Depot employee asserted that Home Depot did just that (see Anecdotes From Home Depot Employee), but I had not heard from Target employees yet.

Today I heard from a Mid-Level Target manager (MLTM) who wishes to remain anonymous. MLTM writes ...

Hello Mish

I appreciate your blog and felt that I should contribute at least what I have observed in my time at Target. I'm an exempt store employee (middle management) and I can attest to the fact that Target has been controlling hours of hourly employees as you have suggested.

This is a trend that began well before the recent press release regarding health insurance for part time workers. Policy isn't explicitly stated, but part-time positions have a 12 month auditing period. Average weekly hours are tracked in order to not exceed the part time threshold.

It is common to have part time team members scheduled to cover full time shifts or responsibilities. The two most striking aspects of this effort are on the team members and on shoppers.

The vast majority of team members have such limited hours that to survive they must either have other employment. Some have other full time employment, most an additional part time position. Alternatively some of our part time positions are filled by retired workers or college students.

Turnover, attendance, and work quality and customer support are greatly affected by these facts.

The customer impact, as many of your readers may have noticed, is that there are not enough team members to assist or process transactions at any given time. This frustrates shoppers and makes lower cost internet shopping experience all the more attractive.

A downward spiral of falling sales, fewer hours/team members, further falling sales, and increased operational costs from Obamacare and other regulations pushes costs up when the consumer is buying less from stores and more from on-line vendors.

Anecdotes do not constitute data, but the overwhelming number of similar emails I receive sure rings true.

Competition in the form of "Retail Sales Cannibalization" is intense.

Moreover, the huge, ongoing discrepancy between the establishment survey and the household survey also suggests my thesis is correct.

For details, please see Employment vs. Jobs Discrepancy based on December 2013 Data, released in January.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Were You Aware the NFL is Treated as Non-Profit and thus Exempt From Taxes? Should it Be?

Posted: 26 Jan 2014 10:20 AM PST

With the Super Bowl a week away, here's a question on my mind: Were you aware the NFL is treated as a non-profit organization and thus exempt from taxes?

If you weren't, you are with the majority. Only 13% of people polled got the question correct. Curiously, it's only football that's exempt from taxes, not baseball or other sports.

Please consider a Fairleigh Dickinson University report Your Tax Dollars into NFL Owners' Pockets?

Americans may love football, but few support the use of public funds and tax breaks for the National Football League and a vast majority were unaware the NFL is a not-for-profit entity, according to a recent national survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind.

More than half of respondents (56%) identify themselves as fans of the NFL, but when it comes to tax dollars being used to help the NFL, an overwhelming majority of Americans say it should be 'under further review.' Seven-in-ten (69%) oppose the use of public funds to build and support stadiums for NFL teams, and virtually the same number (71%) say no to tax breaks to attract or keep a team in town.

"The public's love for the game clearly doesn't trump their fiscal restraint when it comes to big time sporting events," said Krista Jenkins, director of PublicMind and professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University. "Even teams who don't make it to the Super Bowl generate millions from licensing and ticket sales. The public says taxpayers shouldn't be hit up for support when there's enough in the NFL coffers to pay their own way."

Digging deeper, there's little evidence to suggest that some are more persuaded by NFL appeals for public funding than others. Across gender, race, and age, opinion remains consistent -- a resounding "no" to tax breaks and public funds. Even self-described football fans are largely opposed to corporate welfare for the NFL, although it's notable that fans are twice as likely as non-fans to favor tax breaks for NFL teams (27 versus 14 percent, respectively).

The same survey also finds that most are unaware that the NFL is a not-for-profit organization. As a recent report in The Atlantic outlined, the NFL and its teams are the recipients of a good many direct and indirect subsidies. However, more than two-thirds (69%) say the NFL is NOT a nonprofit, with only 13 percent correctly identifying it as not-for-profit.

"Since the NFL is generally associated with wealthy owners and players, not to mention the tremendous revenue that each team generates year-round, the public would not be expected to know the League is a non-profit organization," said Jenkins. "With billions likely to flow from the Super Bowl, it would seem a contradiction that the organization behind it all would be technically a not-for-profit, but that is indeed true about the NFL."

Fairleigh Dickinson University Survey Question

How Did the NFL Get Tax-Exempt Status?

Bloomberg explains in Americans Think NFL Should Pay Taxes

The NFL enjoys vast support among the American public despite recent controversies, but when it comes to taxes, the league is best served by keeping fans in the dark.

A survey conducted last month by Fairleigh Dickinson University found that people overwhelmingly oppose tax breaks enjoyed by the league, while the majority had no idea the National Football League has nonprofit status. The poll, which questioned more than 1,000 people, found that 56 percent identified themselves as football fans, 69 percent don't think public money should be used to build stadiums, and 71 percent oppose tax breaks to keep an NFL team in town.

Most interesting, however, is how effective the NFL's public-relations machine has been at keeping its nonprofit status out of the public eye. Only 13 percent of those polled correctly identified the NFL as a nonprofit. It seems most people have a hard time reconciling tax breaks for a league flush with cash at a time when government budget cuts are threatening classrooms and even the IRS itself.

To clarify, the NFL is not categorized as a charity under the tax code; rather, it falls under Section 501(c)(6), which exempts trade or industry associations from taxation. In 1966, the tax code was amended to include professional football to facilitate the merger of the NFL and the American Football League, by granting the sport antitrust and tax exemptions. The IRS specifically mentions the sport in its statute:

IRC 501(c)(6) provides for exemption of business leagues, chambers of commerce, real estate boards, boards of trade, and professional football leagues (whether or not administering a pension fund for football players), which are not organized for profit and no part of the net earnings of which inures to the benefit of any private shareholder or individual.

With $9.5 billion in revenue, the NFL doesn't seem to fit this definition. The next-richest professional sports league, Major League Baseball, does not enjoy the same break.

There's a bipartisan campaign to amend the tax code, which is right in the wheelhouse of liberal activists calling for increased taxes on millionaires and conservative critics of government waste. Senator Tom Coburn, Republican of Oklahoma, recently announced he would retire from Congress, but not before introducing a bill that would strip the NFL of its nonprofit status. The PRO Sports Act proposes taxing any professional sports league that brings in at least $10 million. In such a politically polarized climate, it seems football might be our great uniter after all.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

What if every president did this?

FEATURED

What if every president did this?

On Tuesday we're offering a special, enhanced version of President Obama's State of the Union address that you won't find anywhere else. Featuring graphics and charts that'll lay out the case for making 2014 a year of action, it's the best way for you to get the smartest take.

Which got us thinking: What if other presidents had an enhanced version of their State of the Union address?

Here's what we think that might look like -- watch, then RSVP to watch on Tuesday for the real deal:

HERE'S WHAT ELSE YOU MISSED THIS WEEK

A Big Block of Cheese

In an homage -- or fromage -- to President Andrew Jackson's 1837 open house, which featured a 1,400 lb. block of cheese, White House officials are answering your questions on social media. Make sure you take part this Wednesday, following the State of the Union:

Join a Virtual Road Trip

President Obama's taking a virtual road trip this Friday to answer questions from across the country, and we want you to come along for the ride. Find out how to join us on Google+.

Taking Over Instagram

All this week, White House officials have been taking over our Instagram feed to take you #InsideSOTU. Check out some of the photos below, and follow us on Instagram to see what's in store for the week ahead:

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Seth's Blog : Conference call hygiene

Conference call hygiene

On behalf of the many who have suffered through pointless and painful conference calls, some general principles:

When in doubt, don't have one.
Everyone now knows precisely what time it is. Show up ten seconds early; one minute late is too late.
If you can't live with rule 1, can we live with this one? 10 minutes is the maximum length of a conference call. In, out, over.
If the meeting is only ten minutes long, good news, you have time to pull over, time to let the dog out, and time to give us your undivided attention.
If you're not planning on speaking, no need to attend. You can listen to the recording later if you need to, or we can send you 8 bullet points and save us all time.
While we're on the topic, audio is a truly powerful means of communication, and if you want to record your message and send it to all of us, I'm totally in favor of this. But don't confuse the one-way broadcast power of audio with a pretend meeting where you're talking and we're supposed to quietly listen in real time. That's not a meeting and all the trappings of a conference call detract from the thing you were trying to do.
Before you waste a thousand dollars of company time on another conference call, listen to Al's book for $4. Almost all conference calls that involve more than five people are either a lazy choice or a show of power, and should be eliminated. If you want to talk, for sure, please pick up the phone and call me.

If we work in the plant, we make widgets. And we expect that the making of widgets will be consistent, rational and done with forethought and a lack of waste. Many of us now work in a system that makes decisions, has meetings and markets ideas. The same kind of clarity and craftsmanship ought to exist here too.

This video is funny, because it's true.

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sâmbătă, 25 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Venezuela Enacts "Law of Fair Prices" Banning Profits Over 30%, with 10-Year Imprisonment for Hoarding

Posted: 25 Jan 2014 07:49 PM PST

No matter how ridiculous things are, they can always get worse, especially when dealing with leftist dictators and hyperinflation setups.

Via translation from El Economista, please consider Venezuela Issues Law of Fair Prices, Prohibiting Profits Over 30%.

The Fair Prices Act, an instrument with which the Government of Nicolas Maduro intends to control prices and eliminate shortages, includes a ban on profit margins over 30%, with penalties of up to 10 years imprisonment for hoarders.

The law passed in November, and the Supreme Court ratified the law yesterday.

The law, published in Official Gazette, states that the profit margin will be established annually "addressing scientific criteria" by the National Superintendency for the Protection of Socio-Economic Rights (SUNDDE).

The law provides for the application of preventive measures and sanctions such as confiscation, temporary occupation of premises or property, the temporary closure of an establishment or suspension of licenses and the "immediate adjustment" price.

In the section of the law regarding hoarding, those who "restrict supply, circulation or distribution of regulated goods or cause distortions in prices, shall be punished with imprisonment judicially 8 to 10 years."

The law also provides for fines ranging from 107,000 bolivars ($17,000) to 5.3 million bolivars ($850,000).

SUNDDE will "fix maximum prices for the production or importation, distribution and consumption according to their importance and strategic nature for the benefit of the population as well as the technical criteria for assessing the levels of exchange equitable and fair of goods and services."

Under this preposterous measure, no companies will be able to import and sell goods at anything but a loss. Expect all goods and services to vanish soon.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Free Shipping Anecdotes from Canada

Posted: 25 Jan 2014 10:31 AM PST

Reader Ian, who lives in Ottawa, Canada is wondering "How do they do it?" Ian writes ...

Hello Mish

Recently I went to WalMart online to price cat litter. An 18 kg box - about 39.7 lb - was $8.98. This is the same as my local WalMart in-store price. But online came with free shipping.

I spoke to the guy who delivered the 2 boxes I ordered. He is an owner-operator of a shipping company that contracts for WalMart delivery. Since he owns his own truck, he has to pay gas, insurance, depreciation, licensing, maintenance, etc.

Questions abound.

How much does WalMart pay this guy for delivering an $18 order? How does this delivery provider survive? Is the cost of operating a store be so high that WalMart has enough margin to ship from a warehouse while offering free shipping?

I'm in Ottawa, Canada. I'm not even aware of a warehouse in our city. If there is no warehouse, the litter had to be shipped from a store, with no savings on store overhead.

Even if there is a warehouse, the increased distribution distance means the shipper must be paid more or go out of business.

WalMart seems to be somewhere between a traditional bricks and mortar model and an Amazon model. I don't understand how this works, but I'll use it while it exists, saving time and money.

Ian

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Weekly Address: Taking Action to End Sexual Assault

Featured

Weekly Address: Taking Action to End Sexual Assault

In his weekly address, President Obama said that the Administration has taken another important step to protect women at college by establishing the White House Task Force on Protecting Students from Sexual Assault. An estimated 1 in 5 women is sexually assaulted at college, and the President said that we will keep taking actions like strengthening the criminal justice system, reaching out to survivors, and changing social norms so that all Americans can feel safe and protected as they pursue their own piece of the American dream.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

President Obama wanted you to know this

Hey --

Every year it's the same: In the days leading up to the State of the Union, the phone rings off the hook with everyone trying to figure out what will be in the President's address.

We're now just four days out -- and the President wanted you to get the first preview of what this speech is all about. As always, he'll be working on it right up until game time, but three words sum up the President's message on Tuesday night: opportunity, action, and optimism.

The core idea is as American as they come: If you work hard and play by the rules, you should have the opportunity to succeed. Your ability to get ahead should be based on your hard work and ambition and who you want to be, not just the raw circumstance of who you are when you're born.

On Tuesday night, the President will lay out a set of real, concrete, practical proposals to grow the economy, strengthen the middle class, and empower all who hope to join it.

RSVP now and watch the enhanced State of the Union on WhiteHouse.gov this Tuesday night:

In this year of action, the President will seek out as many opportunities as possible to work with Congress in a bipartisan way. But when American jobs and livelihoods depend on getting something done, he will not wait for Congress.

President Obama has a pen and he has a phone, and he will use them to take executive action and enlist every American -- business owners and workers, mayors and state legislators, young people, veterans, and folks in communities from across the country -- in the project to restore opportunity for all.

It will be an optimistic speech. Thanks to the grit and determination of citizens like you, America has a hard-earned right to that optimism. Five years after the President inherited the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, our businesses have created more than eight million new jobs in the past 46 months, and they're primed to create more.

With some action on all our parts, we can help more jobseekers find work, and more working Americans find the economic security they deserve. That's why, in the week following the speech, President Obama will travel to communities across the country -- including Prince George’s County Maryland, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Nashville, before returning to the White House to outline new efforts to help the long-term unemployed.

You need to tune in on Tuesday -- because this is about you.

Thanks,

Dan

Dan Pfeiffer
Senior Advisor
The White House
@Pfeiffer44

P.S. -- Senior White House staff (myself included) will take to our computers and answer as many of your questions as we can the day after the big speech. We want you to be a part of it -- check it out now.

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Seth's Blog : Measuring nothing (with great accuracy)

Measuring nothing (with great accuracy)

The weight of a television set has nothing at all to do with the clarity of its picture. Even if you measure to a tenth of a gram, this precise data is useless.

Some people measure stereo equipment using fancy charts and graphs, even though the charts and graphs say little or nothing about how it actually sounds.

A person's Klout score or the number of Twitter followers she has probably doesn't have a lot to do with how much influence she actually has, even if you measure it quite carefully.

You can't tell if a book is any good by the number of words it contains, even though it's quite easy and direct to measure this.

We keep coming up with new things to measure (like processor speed, heat output, column inches) but it's pretty rare that those measurements are actually a proxy for the impact or quality we care about. It takes a lot of guts to stop measuring things that are measurable, and even more guts to create things that don't measure well by conventional means.

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duminică, 26 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

What if every president did this?

Seth's Blog : Conference call hygiene

Conference call hygiene

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sâmbătă, 25 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Weekly Address: Taking Action to End Sexual Assault

President Obama wanted you to know this

Seth's Blog : Measuring nothing (with great accuracy)

Measuring nothing (with great accuracy)

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