A Deep Dive into Google MyAnswers

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A Deep Dive into Google MyAnswers Posted: 04 Mar 2014 03:15 PM PST Posted by gfiorelli1 A few months ago I published here on Moz SEO in the Personalization Age, where I explained why, once and for all, SEOs need to be aware of the personalization of SERPs and the mechanisms by which Google customizes our search results. I also suggested some ways to convert what at first sight is just a complication into a competitive advantage. This post is the ideal continuation of that one. Here, however, I won't dig into SEO theories and patents, but I will try to put order in all of the existing information about the elements that compose MyAnswers, highlighting some clarification that many - wrongly - absent-mindedly forget, and suggesting actions that can mean the difference between winning or not the personalized SERPs. You can call this post "Guide to MyAnswers" if you want, although I do not pretend to have written a real guide. Finally, this post is also the result of conversations I had with Giorgio Taverniti, one of the leading experts on this topic and the creator of the most important Italian SEO Forum. Personalized private search When we speak about personalized search results, it would be more correct to use the term private search results. It is not just semantics but how Google refers to them, and is also a result of the confrontation with the European Community. Private is slightly different from Personalized, since it implies that a SERP is personalized only by our web history and only by the direct contacts on Google Plus and Gmail. Keep in mind this detail, because it will explain a point I will affirm later in the post. A classic example of Private Search is this: Private Search consists of two elements: Google Now, or our offline activities moved into our own online life; Google Plus, or anything that I or people in my Circles share by G+. Google Now Right now you should be quite used to this feature offered by Google also in the desktop search. Usually we refer to it for things like flight reminders, hotel and restaurant reservations, packages' deliveries, and for geo-targeted contextual suggestions. Google Now generally operates in two eco-systems: Mobile (and for that reason every example Google offers is mobile); Vocal (you can create Google Now reminders with a voice command). The fact that it is now also present in the classic desktop search is just a sign of the times (and of the shift from desktop search to "everywhere" search, thanks also to the instant synchronization of the Google account information in different devices). As I wrote in SEO in the Personalization Age, everybody can ask to be integrated into Google Now. Be advised that it is not an immediate inclusion, as a nine-step process is needed to obtain the approval from Google). The integration is possible using one of these Schema for Gmail: RSVP actions for events; Review action; One-click action; Go-to action; Flight interactive cards. This video from the last Google I/O explains well all these options: Every Schema for Gmail is interesting, but the most immediately useful ones are: Review action, which offers us the opportunity to ask and let our clients to write reviews of our product, hotel, or service (or simply to evaluate them with the classic starred system) directly from their inbox. As you can see, it can be a big help in obtaining more reviews, as it responds to the old classic "Don't make me think" principle; One-click action, which can be especially useful for eCommerce sites. Imagine you have users subscribed to your coupon/offers newsletter. When they will receive the newsletter with the One-click action SaveAction Schema implemented, they will be able to save the coupon in their Google Offers account. If you want to dig more into the integration with Google Now, you can check out these two great posts: How Gmail’s Schema.org Support Changes the Game for Email Marketers; Email Schema: 6 Things You Need To Know Plus Some Conspiracy Theory. Google Plus I must admit that I still see many SEOs confused about how Google Plus influences Private Search. To be honest, the fact that Google presents both Google Plus and Knowledge Graph (and sometimes Answers cards) in the same positions, or even mixed (i.e.: Google Plus Profiles enriched with Knowledge Graph information) is not helping to dispell this confusion. This, among other things, reflects something that still not everybody understands: Google Plus is a multi-platform product, and not only a Social Network. Google Plus directly influences Private Search in three different ways, each one depending on the visibility we give to the message we share on G+: 1. Only You (or "shared privately") As you can see, the visibility in SERPs is practically immediate (10 seconds is the time I needed to switch accounts). Privately shared Google Plus posts can be also images, as Giorgio pointed out to me: Opportunities in sharing privately Imagine you did a good job building an authoritative profile on Google Plus, so that you have been circled by influencers. When you don't have a close relationship with those influencers and your outreach emails may very well bounce back or be ignored, then sharing a private post with a link to content you think they may may like and share is a great alternative. Thanks to this sort of inception marketing, the influencers will quite surely find that post in the first page for those keywords you are targeting them for and about which you have created the content you want them to promote. If you have wisely crafted the post in order to have a catchy tagline (the first words, which will compose the title of the search snippet) and a convincing description with a strong call to action just after, then your post has a strong opportunity for being clicked, discovered, and shared by that influencer. 2. Limited There are two kinds of limited Google Plus posts in SERPs. Posts that are shared with us because we are part of a Circle (not publicly shared), and we have the person/business page sharing it circled too; Posts that are posted publicly by people/brands, who are not in the Knowledge Graph but whom we have circled For instance, Rand is not a node in the Knowledge Graph (yet), so what I see in the right sidebar of the SERPs is his information taken from his Google Plus profile and his latest post there in a limited-labeled box. Opportunities in limited sharing Usually people tend to share posts only using the Public option. By doing so, they lose the opportunity to obtain more SERP real estate for branded searches. 3. Public A posts is public when a user or a brand shares it with all the Google Plus users. These posts are presented as organic search results, and they can rank as if they were a normal web page and even reach the first positions and remain in the SERPs if they earn links. They aren't tagged with Public as it was once, but they present authorship data, and we always see them in the first page if we have circled that user/brand. Opportunities in sharing publicly The opportunities are obvious in this case. The more people who have circled your profile or your business page, the more they will see your publicly shared posts in a outstanding position in the SERPs, including for very competitive head tail keywords. Follow those simple rules about Google Plus posts' search snippets, and you will be able to obtain important volumes of organic traffic to your G+ profile and, from there, to your site. Be aware, though, that Public shares tend to suffer when the Freshness effect decays and, if the post is not reinforced with backlinks, it will tend to slip out of the first page and, ultimately, from the SERPs. The difference between Search Plus Your World (SPYW) and MyAnswers This snapshot above is an example of how SPYW was working. As you can see, Google was declaring how many personalized results were pulled in, enhancing them with the styled person icon, and showing the photo and name of the person who socially shared the content. It even offered us a list of people and pages on Google+ related to the search we did. Now, with MyAnswers, this is not so anymore: No indication of how many search snippets are personalizing the SERP. No person icon. Of note, there is also no sign of the name of the person who socially shared the content if he is not in our Circles. The SERP, then, is personalized just with those Google Plus posts that were shared by people we have in our Circles. Finally, there's no sign of "Suggested people and pages" in the right column. These differences show one extremely important difference between SPYW and MyAnswers: In SPYW, if we shared something with a friend, it was seen in a preferred position in SERPs by his friends, as well. In MyAnswers it is not. Giorgio and I did a very simple experiment, with me sharing a post with him and "Extended Circles." The result was that Giorgio could see my post in a SERP when logged in with his personal account, but not when logged in with a test G+ profile that didn't have me circled but did have his personal account circled. What does this mean? That sharing something with "Extended Circles," as Google itself explains in a somewhat involute way, offers an opportunity to make the post visible to un-circled profiles only in Google Plus, but not in SERPs. As I was saying in the very beginning of this post, this is why we should speak of Private Search and not of Personalized Search. And, as we will see, there's just one way to show something shared on Plus to friends of friends: the Google +Post Ads. The MyAnswers catalogue The version of the catalogue I outline here must be considered just a snapshot in time of the actual situation. As Dr. Pete taught us with his #MozCast updates, Google is continuously experimenting with new formats and layouts. MyAnswers elements are present in the SERPs both in the right-hand column and in the main body of the SERPs. On the right we can find: Personal profiles of users we have circled Personal Gmail contact information This is "Only You" information pushed into the SERP from our Gmail, and Google shows it if the contact we have in Gmail doesn't have a Google Plus profile. Note that if he/she has a Google Plus profile, this one with an "Add to circles" button will be shown instead: Business pages If the brand is not a node in the Knowledge Graph, the business page will be shown only if we have circled it. If we haven't, that space on the right will be empty: Please note that this particular example is quite strange, because Moz is present with a page in Wikipedia, so the absence of a Moz Knowledge Graph box, or of Knowledge Graph information in the Google Plus business box seems quite odd and is something we should investigate further. Google Plus local pages There are three cases, and in all of them the box is visible whether or not you're signed in. The biggest difference is that we won't see whether our circled friends have reviewed a local business if we are signed out. 1) A non-verified G+ local page, as in the case of the Osteria Satyricon in Bolonia (click and you will see how the "verified business" icon is absent). 2) A verified but not circled page, as in the case of the restaurant of a friend of mine in Valencia: 3) A verified and circled page: Another possibility: A Knowledge Graph and Google Plus page/business page: The box, as can be easily seen, is a composition of Knowledge Graph information (extract from Wikipedia and "People also search for") and Google Plus (number of followers and recent posts). This box is also visible if you're not logged in. Pay attention, though, that it doesn't seem working in international Google searches, such as the Spanish or Italian ones. At least, though, in the majority of cases on Google.com it does. Knowledge Graph, Google Plus, and Google Now Substantially similar to the previous case, but with the "Keep me updated" button, which functions to push posts by the followed profile in our Google Now Cards. It seems it is only shown if the person is a node in the Knowledge Graph and it is not available for Business Pages (at least I wasn't able to find any). Google Plus Hashtags Search Since last September it has been possible to search for hashtags in Google. That means that if you tag a post on Plus with a hashtag, your content may have the opportunity to be shown in Google searches to people who have not circled you and are not signed in. It would be worth an independent analysis of how Google chooses which public posts to show for a given hashtag, but what it is quite clear is that freshness is an important factor, as the posts shown tend to be the ones most recently shared. Also pay attention to the hashtags you decide to use, as it seems that the hashtag must have at least a minimum of usage in order to be shown in Google search. For instance, I tried to search #MozCast and this was the result: Opportunities The only way to be always visible with a box in the right-hand column of the SERPs when people are not logged in and/or have not circled us is being present in the Knowledge Graph and having a Profile/Business Page on Plus, or having a verified Google Plus Local Page. In the first case: If we already are a node in the Knowledge Graph, then we must have an active page on Google Plus. There are tons of Brands that doesn't know this and are missing a wonderful opportunity to lend visibility to their content. If we are not present in the Knowledge Graph but have an active Google Plus profile/business page, we can try to earn/force inclusion in the sources that the Knowledge Graph uses: Wikipedia and Freebase. If you have a Google Plus Local Page, then you simply should start posting updates. In the main body of a SERP we can find: Shared Google Plus posts As I mentioned previously, the Google Plus posts are visible both to people who are signed in and to those who are signed out if the posts are public, but they only easily rank in a top position for head-tail keywords for people who have circled us. And, keep in mind that freshness has a key role. URLs shared on Google Plus If someone we have circled shares a URL in Google Plus, the web document shared will be shown on the first page in our private searches even if it isn't in a neutral search or in a more prominent position that actually is ranking: Note that only one person needs to share the URL, which obviously means that if we were able to earn followers on Google Plus, the simple act of sharing the URL with them will make that page stand out in their SERPs, even for very competitive keywords. URLs that have earned +1s If someone we have circled +1s a web document, we will see that same page excel in the SERPs for all the keywords that page may rank for: Google Plus local reviews This represents a great opportunity for local businesses. If a business has been circled by an influencer, it should have to try being reviewed by him on Google Plus Local (Remember: You can do it using the Schema for Gmail, too). If he agrees, all his followers will see your search snippet enhanced by his annotation, and if that is 4 or 5 stars... YouTube We should not forget that Google Plus and private search are also influencing our YouTube experience when signed in. If we click on the Social link in the left menu, we will see all the YouTube videos people we have circled have shared on Google Plus: Also remember that if someone we have circled not only shares a YouTube video but also comments about it on Google Plus, then we will see his comment in the YouTube page of that video too. Just check the latest Matt Cutts video about Paid Links, and you will see a good example of this. Note, though, that that same Matt Cutts video doesn't show any "Google Plus activity" in the SERPs. +Post ads Last December Google launched the Beta of +Post Ads. +Post Ads may be defined as the Google version of the old (and now dismissed) Facebook Promoted Posts. For Google they also are: A way of selling ads on Plus without publishing them on Plus; A brilliant idea, because it is a way to bring more people into Google Plus but making them pay to advertise. The +Post Ads are included in the Google GDN, therefore we can easily target the right audience and do really targeted inbound marketing with practically every kind of content we can create on Google Plus: Images+text Videos Hangouts on air (pre, during, and post-HOA) Users can interact with the +Post Ad directly in the site where it is published without the need to visit our Google Plus page. Obviously, they need to have a Google Profile. From an SEO point of view, +Post Ads are a great opportunity. In fact, the more people who share and +1 the ad (and comment on it if it is a video), the more all the people in their Circles will start seeing our post standing out in SERPs (and YouTube) even for the most competitive keywords. Conclusion Private Search, with its combination of Google Now and Social Search (aka: Google Plus) represent a big percentage of the SERPs users see, and its majority in case of mobile search users on Android devices. Google Plus, then, due to its cross-product platform nature, influences the search experience also of the users not using it as a Social Network. For these reasons we must understand how Private Search works, recognize its elements in the SERPs and take advantage of the opportunities it offers to us.. Maybe it's time to start optimizing our Google Plus content, don't you think? Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

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Broad Match Modifier – One Of The Four Match Types In The Mix!

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Broad Match Modifier – One Of The Four Match Types In The Mix! Posted: 05 Mar 2014 02:46 AM PST In this blog post I'm going to highlight the reasons why Broad Match Modifier (BMM) should be given some attention! It may not be appropriate for your campaign, or particular areas within your campaign, but you should be aware of its distinction from Broad Match, the benefits it can encompass, and some useful tips for using it. The diagram below segments keyword targeting in terms of match type and displays Broad Match Modifier's position within the match type spectrum. You can see from this that Broad Match modifier sits in the middle of Phrase and Broad. Therefore, it reaches a larger audience than Phrase match but has more control than Broad Match.   The Difference Between Broad Match And Broad Match Modifier Let's look at the difference between the two in more depth:   Match Type Special Symbol Example Keywords Ads may show on searches that Example searches Broad Match     None women's bags   meerkat Include misspellings, synonyms, related searches and other relevant variations buy ladies bags   a mongoose-like viverrine of South Africa   Broad Match Modifier   +{keyword} +women's +bags   +meerkat Contain the modified term (or close variant, but not synonyms) in any order bags for women   meerkat costumes   Broad Match Modifier allows a high level of reach, while maintaining a level of control in terms of relevancy. The word proceeding the + sign must appear (or a close variant such as a misspelling, singular/plural, abbreviation, acronym or stemming) in the search query. In comparison to Broad match, synonyms and related searches will not cause the ad to show. So, like Phrase and Exact Match types, Broad Match Modifier requires the keyword to be present in the search term for the ad to show, whereas Broad Match doesn't. For Broad Match, a synonym or related keyword can cause the ad to show.   Why You Should Use BMM It will generate more traffic, but traffic with high relevance, so there is greater potential for conversions (compared to Broad Match). If you want to maximise your traffic whilst ensuring your traffic is high-quality, BMM is for you. It will increase brand exposure and awareness, but at the same time it will keep a level of control over relevancy. If you have long-tail keywords (which is where a lot of search queries are moving towards) you can just modify some of your more specific words that you already know convert well and are highly relevant. For example, with the term 'women's quilted leather bags' you could modify the keyword term like this '+women's quilted leather +bags'. This will ensure that the ad shows when 'women's' and 'bags' appear as they are. However, 'quilted' and 'leather' don't have to appear in the search term for the ad to show. Additionally, a synonym or related word to quilted or leather can cause the ad to show. A less extensive list of negative keywords is required. Unlike Broad Match keywords, synonyms and related searches are excluded, so less time is wasted with negative keyword research. Negative keyword research is still very important, but it is not as necessary as it is for Broad Match keywords. When moving from Broad Match to BMM, Broad Match Modifier has been seen to exert a positive effect on quality score. This may be due to increased relevancy and therefore an increased CTR. It is extremely easy to use. In AdWords Editor just use the 'Replace Text' function, where you can find a 'keyword' and replace it with '+keyword'. There can be some formatting issues in Excel when using '+', so take advantage of Editor. Here are some additional tools which you may find useful: Keywords Toaster: http://keywordstoaster.worldofsolomon.com/ PPC Keyword Concatenation Tool: http://www.found.co.uk/ppc-keyword-tool/   How To Utilise BMM Effectively Use BMM as an opportunity to find new keywords. By using BMM rather than Phrase Match, you can explore Search Query Reports more granularly and obtain more insightful data. You can then add these keywords to your campaigns. Additionally, this can give you the opportunity to find negative keywords that you can add to your campaigns. Take advantage of the flexibility that BMM permits. You can use the '+' on some of the words within the keyword term to ensure that the word with the '+' definitely appears. Words without the '+' will have more flexibility (acting as a broad match) and can be matched to synonyms or related terms. For example, 'women's +bags' holds the premise that the word 'women's' can match to synonyms or related terms such as 'ladies', but the word 'bag' has to appear how it is. It will not be matched to any variant or synonyms, such as 'tote' or 'purse'. If this information has convinced you that BMM is worth a go and you would like to change your Broad Match keywords to Broad Match Modifier, you should be prepared to lose some traffic. As synonyms and related searches will be excluded, you will lose impression volume, but it is likely that the impression volume lost will be of little value to your campaign. It is also likely that using BMM over Broad Match will have a positive influence on cost. One thing to note is that you can't have a negative broad match modifier. If you want to be extra cautious, make sure that you take advantage of the AdWords Campaign Experiments (ACE) tool, which allows you to accurately test and monitor changes to your keywords, bids, ad groups, ads, placements and more. You can run your experimental campaign alongside your original campaign, allowing a real-time representation and thus a realistic set of results that you can then choose to implement or discard. If you are using Excel and want to type in a keyword with a + put a ‘ in front of it: +keyword will give you an error, as Excel sees the + first and tries to read it as a formula. ‘+keyword will show as +keyword (as the apostrophe tells Excel you're entering text). Also, if you're using AdWords Editor and you want to add BMM to all of the words in your keywords, first click 'Append Text' and add '+' in front of all keywords. Then click 'Replace Text' and replace ' ' (a space) with ' +' (a space followed by a plus). To do the same in Excel, use the formula: =”+”&SUBSTITUTE(TRIM(A1),” “,” +”) (Just replace A1 with the cell your keyword is in)     So, there are my thoughts on BMM and why I think it deserves its place in the match type spectrum. What are your thoughts? Do you prefer to use Broad Match? Or do you think that Phrase Match offers something BMM doesn't? Please let me know in the comments below or via twitter @hollymartin__. Thank you for reading! The post Broad Match Modifier – One Of The Four Match Types In The Mix! appeared first on White Noise.

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Seth's Blog : Girl Scout cookies

 

Girl Scout cookies

Teaching young people to sell is a priceless gift. The confidence and clarity that comes from being able to engage and to cause a transaction is a trait that can pay off for a lifetime. 

I thought I'd share a simple sales approach that in my experience consistently doubles the sales rate for Girl Scouts, at the same time it permits a more natural, humanistic engagement. Most Scouts are taught to memorize a fairly complicated spiel, one that involves introducing themselves, talking in detail about the good work that the Scouts do, and finishing with how the money raised goes for this and for that.

This is difficult work even for a professional, but for a kid talking to an adult, it's frightening and unlikely to lead to a positive experience. The alternative?

"What's your favorite kind of Girl Scout cookie?"

In less than ten words, all the Proustian memories of previous cookie experiences are summoned up. In one simple question, the power in the transaction shifts, with the Scout going from supplicant to valued supplier. 

(And that's the universal lesson here: A question that avoids a 'no', a question that starts a conversation, a question that opens the door to emotion... those are the questions that build careers and create value.)

The cookie-buying experience isn't about making some sort of charitable contribution. Buying cookies is an incredibly inefficient way to support anything but a cookie company. No, the experience from the buyer's point of view is an emotional connection to something that's been in their life since they were a kid (there's a reason they don't change the flavors) as well as a positive interaction with a young person learning to speak up.

PS If you're busy selling your kid's cookies at work in a misguided attempt to raise money for the troop, please don't! It undermines the very point of the exercise, and you'd probably raise more money if you did some freelance work instead. Access to cookies isn't the point, teaching the Scouts to be confident salespeople is.

       

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Bitcoin Incentive for Fraud; Two More Exchanges Hacked: "Flexcoin" Robbed of All Online Coins; "Poloniex" Missing 12.3% of Assets
• Back from the Brink: Ruble Rebounds, Stocks Soar as Putin Sees ‘No Need’ for Military Force in Ukraine
• Mortgage Loan Originations Lowest Since November 2008, Down 60% Year-Over-Year, Cash Sales Strong

Bitcoin Incentive for Fraud; Two More Exchanges Hacked: "Flexcoin" Robbed of All Online Coins; "Poloniex" Missing 12.3% of Assets Posted: 04 Mar 2014 11:03 AM PST Two more bitcoin exchanges were robbed in the past few days. "Flexcoin" lost all online coins and shut its doors.    Flexcoin admitted it did not have resources to cover 896 stolen bitcoins, worth £365,000 (about $608,200). Bitcoins in Flexcoin's "cold storage" (offline), for which depositors have to pay a fee, were not affected. "Poloniex", the other hacked bitcoin site, admitted that it is missing 12.3% of its assets because of a flaw in its transaction system. Its owner apologized and will keep its exchange running. The Guardian reports Bitcoin Bank Flexcoin Closes After Hack Attack. Flexcoin has been forced to close after hackers stole 896 bitcoins, worth £365,000, in an attack on Sunday. The company shut its website and posted a statement on Tuesday morning detailing the loss. "On March 2nd 2014 Flexcoin was attacked and robbed of all coins in the hot wallet," the statement read. "As Flexcoin does not have the resources, assets, or otherwise to come back from this loss, we are closing our doors immediately." Not all of the company's assets were stolen. In line with best practices for running a bitcoin financial service, Flexcoin held some bitcoins in "cold storage", keeping them on devices not connected to the internet. Those bitcoins are safe, but only users who explicitly requested their bitcoins be held in cold storage (and paid a 0.5% fee) benefit. "Users who put their coins into cold storage will be contacted by Flexcoin and asked to verify their identity," the statement continues. "Once identified, cold storage coins will be transferred out free of charge. Cold storage coins were held offline and not within reach of the attacker. Flexcoin will attempt to work with law enforcement to trace the source of the hack." Just six days ago, the company was boasting that it was unscathed by the closure of MtGox, once the world's largest bitcoin exchange: The same day the company came clean about its losses, a second bitcoin firm, Poloniex, also admitted that 12.3% of its reserves had been stolen by hackers. Poloniex is a bitcoin exchange, and the company has committed to operating at a fractional reserve until it can replenish the losses itself. "Poloniex" Robbed of 12.3% of Assets, Owner Apologizes The problem at Poloniex stems from a flaw in Poloniex's system that processed bitcoin transactions simultaneously rather than sequentially, ultimately allowing negative balances. On the Bitcoin Forum, Poloniex owner Busoni explained how it happened and apologized to the bitcoin holders. What Did Poloniex Do Wrong? The major problem here is that the auditing and security features were not explicitly looking for negative balances. Another design flaw is that withdrawals should be queued at every step of the way. This could not have happened if withdrawals requests were processed sequentially instead of simultaneously. What Did Poloniex Do Right? The existing security features noticed unusual withdrawal activity and froze BTC. That is how the activity was discovered. What Happens Now? I take full responsibility for this and am committed to repaying the debt of BTC. The exchange funds are 12.3% short. Because there is not enough BTC to cover everyone's balances, all balances will temporarily be deducted by 12.3%. Please understand that this is an absolute necessity--if I did not make this adjustment, people would most likely withdraw all their BTC as soon as possible in order to make sure they weren't left in that remaining 12.3%. Aside from the obvious drawback of most of the BTC being taken out of the exchange, this would not be fair--some people would get all of their money right away, and a few would get none right away. The amount deducted from everyone's balances will be recorded, and funds raised from exchange fees, as well as donations from my own pocket (which is not very deep, I'm afraid), will be distributed regularly to all users who have had BTC deducted. Exchange fees will be raised to expedite the recovery of the debt. 1.5% has been suggested by many people, but I will take input on this. If I had the money to cover the entire debt right now, I would cover it in a heartbeat. I simply don't, and I can't just pull it out of thin air. Right now, all markets and withdrawals are still frozen, and they will remain that way until the negative balance watcher is written and in place and balance deductions are calculated. Please do not bother placing withdrawals right now, as they will not be processed and will probably all be cancelled before functionality resumes. ETA on availability of withdrawals is approximately 12 hours. I am afraid it is 3 AM where I am right now, and I think it is wise for me to get some rest before proceeding. In conclusion... I sincerely apologize for this, and I am very grateful to the many people who have already expressed their support and belief in my character. I take full responsibility; I will be donating some of my own money, and I will not be taking profit before the debt is paid. I welcome your opinions on how to proceed, but please be constructive. I do not have the money to wave away the debt, so we'll need to work together. Bitcoin Log Given that a log makes a record of every transaction, and given this hack recently occurred, it should be possible to track the missing bitcoins. Bitcoins.Com explains "All newly mined Bitcoins, along with every transaction, are publicly recorded and verified through the network. This record is known as the Blockchain and is one of the features that helps keep the system secure from fraud and abuse. Bitcoins cannot be duplicated or forged." Tracking the stolen bitcoins is easy enough, recovering the stolen money is another matter. The thieves likely traded the bitcoins for cash and now a third party is holding the coins. Sense some lawsuits regarding ownership of the stolen bitcoins? Incentive for Fraud Note the huge incentive for insider fraud at these sites. The owner or owners of these bitcoin exchanges can easily arrange for bitcoins to be stolen. I do not propose that happened in either case above, I just mention the possibility. Inside Japan's Bitcoin Heist Some do accuse Mt.Gox of fraud but the Daily Beast dismisses that idea. Please consider Inside Japan's Bitcoin Heist The Daily Beast was able to speak with a former employee of Mt. Gox, on the condition of anonymity, due to a nondisclosure agreement with the company. According to the former employee's testimony and other expert analysis, it seems very likely that the collapse of Mt. Gox was not a criminal fraud but the result of poor management, faulty accounting, and system bugs that went unfixed many months after being recognized by the CEO himself. The final nail in the coffin was the unauthorized release of an internal document that was supposed to serve as the groundwork for saving the company. It is unclear who leaked the document—which was an unfinished draft of a plan of action. "Essentially," said the former employee, "Mt. Gox was a dysfunctional organization. Nobody was doing accounting reconciliation and there was an exploitable fault in the transaction system that allowed people to get paid twice—or in other words, withdraw more or less the same amount of Bitcoins two times." And it does seem true that Bitcoins are very hard to forge or duplicate. Unfortunately, if you know what you're doing, they may be easy to steal. Or if you're not careful, they may be very easy to lose. Karpeles informed the former employee that an estimated 820,000 Bitcoins were unaccounted for—at the time, the equivalent of close to $500 million. The former employee was told the Bitcoins had possibly been siphoned off over several months by users exploiting flaws in the system. In particular, there seemed to be a system glitch that made it possible to get a payment reissued even after it had been already received. He says that because the firm hadn't hired an accounting firm to keep the books or an auditor, the theft was undetected. Teikoku Data Bank, Japan's largest and most respected credit-rating agency, in July of last year reviewed the company and gave it a D4, the worst possible rating a company can receive on their scale. One of the reasons for the low rating was the lack of qualified accounting staff at the company. Questions Are you holding bitcoins? If so, what kind of auditing is in place at the exchange you hold them? Are they in cold storage? Should they be? Accounting procedures at Mt.Gox were so bad it did not matter whether or not you had the transactions in cold storage. Bitcoin Price and Fraud Go Hand in Hand One final question: Is the runup in price directly related to fraud and theft? Yes, two ways. 1. Increasing value of bitcoins made them an ideal target 2. Fraudsters who stole bitcoins had an incentive to artificially drive price higher knowing they could take out more than they put in, at more than one bitcoin exchange, and in more than one way. How high would the price of bitcoin had gotten in the absence of those incentives? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Back from the Brink: Ruble Rebounds, Stocks Soar as Putin Sees ‘No Need’ for Military Force in Ukraine Posted: 04 Mar 2014 09:28 AM PST Global equities are up led by emerging markets, treasuries and gold a bit lower, and the Ruble higher as Putin Sees 'No Need' for Military Force in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin on Tuesday appeared to step back from the brink of confrontation with the west when he told a televised news conference that tensions that could have led to military intervention in Ukraine had "dissipated". Speaking about the possible use of Russia's armed forces, Mr Putin said: "The tense situation in the Crimea, associated with the possible use of the armed forces, just dissipated, the need for that did not arise. The only thing which was necessary, and which we did, was to strengthen the protection of our military installations . . . "Therefore I believe that it will not be necessary for us to do anything like that in eastern Ukraine." Earlier on Tuesday, Moscow said it had ordered troops "involved in military exercises" to return to their bases following a day of international pressure over its creeping invasion of Crimea. However, there was no immediate confirmation that Russian forces had indeed retreated. The pullout of troops ordered on Tuesday did not cover forces deployed in Ukraine. A Kremlin press release said: "Supreme commander Vladimir Putin gave the order to the troops taking part in military exercises in the west and central military districts to return to their permanent bases. Ruble Rebounds Bloomberg reports Ruble Rebounds With Russia Bonds as Putin Calms Ukraine Concerns The ruble rebounded, Russian stocks surged and government bond yields tumbled after President Vladimir Putin said he's not planning on sending troops to Ukraine, easing investors' concern the standoff will escalate. There is no immediate need to send troops to Ukraine and Russia is not considering adding the Crimea to its territory, Putin told a press-conference in the Moscow region today. The ruble was the worst-performing currency worldwide yesterday and bond yields soared after troops took control of the Crimean peninsula, where Russia keeps its Black Sea fleet. The central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates 150 basis points yesterday in a bid to quell market volatility. "Putin's stand has become clearer to the markets," Vladimir Miklashevsky, a strategist at Danske Bank A/S in Helsinki, said in e-mailed comments. "There is some optimism that the geopolitical crisis may be soon over and fear of war eases." The Micex Index gained 5.3 percent to 1,356.54 at the close of trading in Moscow, snapping five days of declines, including yesterday's 11 percent slump. U.S.-based exchange-traded funds investing in Russian equities have lost 20 percent of their total assets this year, the biggest drop among 46 country-specific ETFs tracked by Bloomberg. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Mortgage Loan Originations Lowest Since November 2008, Down 60% Year-Over-Year, Cash Sales Strong Posted: 03 Mar 2014 11:46 PM PST Here are some bullet points from the latest Black Knight Financial Services (formerly LPS Mortgage Monitor) release on 3/4/2014. Loan originations declined to the lowest point since Nov. 2008 (down 60% Y/Y) Property sales remained relatively strong (total year 2013 was up 8.4% from 2012), supported by increased cash purchases (which accounted for more than 40% of Q4 sales) HARP origination volume has declined significantly (down 70% Y/Y), with fewer existing loans now eligible for the program: approx. 709K vs. 2.3M in Jan. 2013 Home equity lending in 2013 was up 26% vs. 2012, but it's still down over 90% from 2006 HELOC performance in recent vintages is pristine (delinquency rates on HELOCs originated over the past 4 years have averaged just 0.1%), but new problem loan rates continue to rise for older lines that have begun to amortize (up 27% Y/Y) "In January, we saw origination volume continue to decline to its lowest point since 2008, with prepayment speeds pointing to further drops in refinance-related originations," said Herb Blecher, senior vice president of Black Knight Financial Services' Data & Analytics division. "Overall originations were down almost 60 percent year-over-year, with HARP volumes (according to the most recent FHFA report) down 70 percent over the same period. These declines are largely tied to the increased mortgage interest rate environment, which is having a significant impact on the number of borrowers with incentive to refinance. A high-level view of this refinancible population shows a decline of about 13 percent just over the last two months. "Of course, in addition to higher interest rates, a good deal of this decline can be attributed to the fact that a majority of those who could refinance at historically low rates in recent years already have, and we see a similar dynamic in terms of HARP-eligible loans. The volume of HARP refinances over the past year has driven this population down to about 700,000 loans in January 2014, as compared to over 2.3 million at the same time last year. From a geographic perspective, outside of Florida and Nevada, we see the Midwestern states of Illinois, Michigan, Missouri and Ohio have among the highest percentage of HARP eligibility." However, while loan origination volume has declined year-over-year, property sales activity remained relatively strong through year-end 2013, with December's monthly sales up 3.7 percent year-over-year and full year 2013 up 8.4 percent vs. 2012. Fourth-quarter sales were bolstered by a jump in the percentage of cash sales, to over 40 percent of the total, up from about 25 percent in the prior year. Origination Volume Lowest Since 2008 with Further Declines Expected Cash Purchases Have Been Supporting Overall Property Sales "Refinancible" Portion of the Market Continues to Decline Number of Loans Eligible for HARP Under Current Standards has Dropped Significantly Addendum Link to the Report: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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