Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 16 Mar 2014 06:43 PM PDT UK Prime minister David Cameron has agreed to an up or down British vote on the EU but not until 2017 (conveniently after the next election in 2015). Should Cameron lose the election, one can forget about the promise to hold an up-or-down vote. Cameron's Telegraph Op-Ed Cameron has other strings attached to the vote. Yesterday, after at least a year of promises to do so, Cameron outlined the changes he wants to the EU treaty in his Telegraph op-ed EU is Not Working and We Will Change It. People are worried that Britain is being sucked into a United States of Europe; that may be what some others want, but it is not for us. They see decisions being taken far away, rather than by their elected representatives in Parliament. And they worry that European rules have allowed people to claim benefits without ever working here. As a result, democratic consent for Britain's membership has worn wafer thin.Cameron's Wish List of Changes
Proposal number 1 is straight from the looney bin. Cameron proposes setting up some sort of committee that can block EU regulations that the majority of countries in the EU want. Proposals 2 and 6 limit the ability of the EU to set trade rules. If every country is free to create its own trade agreements, precisely what is the EU for? Proposals 3, 4, 6, and 7 make perfect sense except for the fact that Germany and France and likely the rest of the EU would never agree to change the treaty along those lines. Nowhere does Cameron specifically mention financial transactions or absurd tariff proposals, but arguably they are implied in points 1 and 2. Yet, without specific written agreements on agricultural subsidies, financial transaction taxes, bailouts, and even the funding of a European army, eventually the majority is going to rule. Europe is 'For Life', Francois Hollande tells David Cameron Flashback December 14, 2012: Europe is 'for life', Francois Hollande tells David Cameron in EU Power Spat The French President, Francois Hollande, declared that Europe is not "a la carte" like a menu from which member states can pick and choose their powers.Anything Changed Since Hollande's Message? Has anything changed since December 2012? Not really. If anything, disagreements with Cameron have gotten more widespread. Merkel Says She Cannot Satisfy All Britain's EU Wishes February 27, 2014: Merkel Says She Cannot Satisfy All Britain's EU Wishes. German Chancellor Angela Merkel told the British parliament on Thursday she was not prepared to promise fundamental reform of the European Union for London's sake, but said the bloc did need some changes and that Britain should not leave it.Likelihood of Implementation If appears Merkel is in favor of changes on Cameron's wish list item numbers 4 and 5. That's it. Everything else is as Merkel says "Britain would have a chance – along with everyone else – to submit proposals for reform". That means the UK would be subject to eurozone bailouts, funding a European army, inane agricultural tariffs, and even financial transaction taxes at the whim of a majority vote. Germany and France want more powers, not less for Brussels. Did Cameron Lose His Mind? Does Cameron really believe he has any chance of getting what he wants from Germany and France, or is some other identifiable force in play? What about election carrots? Election Carrots Cameron kicked off his Telegraph article with this message: "The British people now have a very clear choice: if you want a referendum on whether Britain should stay in the EU or leave, only the Conservative Party will guarantee to hold one. If I am Prime Minister after the election, I will negotiate a new settlement for Britain in Europe, and then ask the British people: do you wish to stay in the EU on this basis, or leave? I will hold that referendum before the end of 2017, and respect the decision." Cameron does not want a vote now, he only promises one after he wins. Of course he might not win. But even if he wins, Germany and France will never agree with his proposals. Question of Integrity The likelihood of Cameron getting the changes he wants is precisely zero. Is it possible Cameron does not understand that? To the extent Cameron is making an election carrot ploy, he is willing to let the UK make a major mistake if it slightly helps his election chances. If so, that speaks tons about his integrity. Of course, there's always the possibility Cameron has lost his mind. I believe both. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 16 Mar 2014 12:18 PM PDT Crimea returns to Russia It's a done deal. Nothing can be done about it. An Exit poll shows Crimeans Choose to Join Russia in Vote A majority of Crimeans chose to join Russia in a disputed referendum, exit polls showed, deepening the worst crisis between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War.Goodbye Hryvnia, Hello Ruble Crimea will switch to the Russian ruble and abandon Ukraine's hryvnia on April 1, RIA Novosti cited Crimean Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Temirgaliev as saying today. McCain Wants Military Aid for Ukraine The US senate's head-warmonger, John McCain said Obama is giving "serious consideration" to sending military aid to Ukraine. Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy, in an ABC interview, said the U.S. should pass "crippling sanctions" on Russia and help Ukraine rebuild its armed forces. Biden Promotes US as World's Policeman U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will travel to NATO members Poland and Lithuania tomorrow for talks on Ukraine, according to a White House statement. The Pentagon said last week it would send 12 F-16 aircraft to Poland as a sign of U.S. commitment to defend allies in the region; the U.S. previously sent six fighter jets to Lithuania. Do US citizens support wasting tax dollars sending Aircraft to Poland? Of course not. Does McCain or the Republicans care about balancing the budget? Of course not? Did Obama take down Guantanamo Bay, get all US troops out of Afghanistan or Iraq? Of course not. In case you missed it, please see President Obama is the Biggest Fraud Ever Perpetrated on US Citizens (Fantastic Carey Wedler Video) Support for war, spying, and for the US to waste money being the world's policeman is rampant in Congress, deficits be damned. But hey, don't worry Ukraine and Russia Agree to a 5-Day Truce. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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