miercuri, 24 septembrie 2014

Just For Laughs Gags: "Dead Man in the Trash" and more videos

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New plans for Promoted Pins in the U.S.

Back in May, we started working with a small group of advertisers to {link…
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Hi there,
Back in May, we started working with a small group of advertisers to test Promoted Pins in the U.S. Our plan now is to make Promoted Pins more relevant to Pinners and help advertisers understand how their ads impact their business. On October 19, 2014, we'll make a few updates to our Privacy Policy to explain those plans.
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Broken Link Building Bible: The New Testament

Broken Link Building Bible: The New Testament

Broken Link Building Bible: The New Testament

Posted: 23 Sep 2014 05:16 PM PDT

Posted by russvirante

It was a little over a year ago that I first wrote the "Broken Link Building Bible" and it seemed like it was time for an update. If you haven't had a chance yet, please head over to the original, as most of it is still highly relevant today, and it contains the basics which will not be covered in this post. 

Today I present a New Testament, complete with ethical guidelines, new prospecting, content, and outreach techniques. Throughout this guide I will show you how to accomplish most of these tactics using a culmination of tools like Open Site Explorer, Domain Hunter Plus, or BrokenLinkBuilding.com. Let's jump in.

Table of contents

  1. Ethical Guidelines
    1. Content Commandments
      1. Cloaking
      2. Plagiarizing
      3. Bait & Switch
      4. Identity Theft
    2. Outreach Commandments
      1. Automation
      2. Unrelated
      3. Misrepresentation
    3. Conclusions
  2. Advanced Prospecting
    1. Section Discovery
    2. Site Discovery
  3. Advanced Content
    1. Panda Guidelines
    2. Publish Date
    3. Be Thorough
    4. Citation Focus
  4. Advanced Outreach
    1. Short Form
    2. Long Form
    3. Double Tap
    4. Slow Play
    5. Bandwagon
  5. Revelation

Ethical guidelines: The BLB Commandments

I have mentioned many times before that I love broken link building because the success of the campaign is directly proportional to the good you do for the web. You aren't attracting links unless you are fixing them. Not all campaigns are so unscrupulous, however: What is interesting is that even though none of these are traditional link violations like the anchor text manipulation which led to the downfall of guest posting, but they can nevertheless get you in trouble. Let's run through the list.

Content commandments

  • Thou shalt not cloak: Cloaking with broken link building usually takes the form of recreating content and then using either the canonical tag or traditional IP delivery techniques to point Googlebot towards a more commercial site. You really aren't going to get a huge boost out of using this technique, and more importantly, you are missing out on the opportunity to build a genuinely great site. If you are already creating content that's good enough to form a successful BLB campaign, why not just expose that content on your site? It's a big risk for a little reward.
  • Thou shalt not plagiarize: Sorry, folks, but you can't just copy the old site or page off of Archive.org and expect to get away with it. You're asking for a DMCA complaint. How hard is it to update content? Also, link to the original creator's website for good measure!
  • Thou shalt not bait and switch: This is just like slow cloaking. Why kill really good content on your site that deserves links, only to redirect to a page that doesn't? Use BLB as a platform for developing a great, content-rich website.
  • Thou shalt not commit identity theft: This one is really egregious. If you find a whole domain that is now expired, don't simply recreate the whole site and then send emails from that site as if you are the original owner. Seriously, I can't believe I have to write this, but I have seen it in the wild.

Outreach commandments

  • Thou shalt not automate sends: The fastest way to kill a campaign is to just send out thousands of automated emails. You will get terrible conversion rates, piss off webmasters, get your IP blacklisted, and waste good prospects. Take your time to hand-select your targets and customize your emails.
  • Thou shalt not send unrelated emails: Not all broken links are good opportunities. Only send emails to prospects whose sites have a good likelihood of playing ball. I have seen campaigns where success rates are 10%+ because the link builder was careful enough in the prospecting process. If you send too many requests to unrelated sites, your deliverability will suffer.
  • Thou shalt not misrepresent: There is no need to lie to your prospect. Don't pretend to be some kid working on a project or say "I was visiting your site when...". You will see in the outreach templates below that there are some really strong pitch emails that don't require you lie. You'll sleep better at night, and trust me, genuine-sounding emails do a lot better than disingenuous ones.
That is enough for the commandments for now, but let me be clear: You aren't going to get the same performance bumps with the above techniques that you might have received out of paying for guest blog posts or using manipulated anchor text. There really is no good reason to bastardize the BLB process with these types of techniques. Be good.
Which leads me to the next section:

Advanced prospecting techniques

Section discovery

One of the most important additions to the Broken Link Building Bible is the proper methodology for finding sections within websites that are missing, rather than simply a single page. You can often double or even triple the number of relevant prospecting opportunities by simply using this discovery technique. It is fairly simple; here are the steps when not using BrokenLinkBuilding.com:
  1. Go through the normal procedures of identifying relevant BLB opportunities following the steps outlined in the BLB Bible.
  2. Use a backlink tool like Open Site Explorer to export the Top Pages from the site that has the broken link opportunity. For example, if you found a broken link to http://www.joesite.com/important-page.html, you would want to run a Top Pages report for the joesite.com domain.
  3. Export the results by setting "filter by status codes 400 or greater" (this will pick up both 404s and error pages). Finally, visit the archive.org versions of these pages to see if any are strong opportunities.

And, here are the steps using BrokenLinkBuilding.com:
  1. Click on the list icon next to the opportunity you want to examine for section 404s
  2. Click on the Archive link to look at the archive pages to see if it matches your campaign
  3. [Pro Tip] If you find a great opportunity, mine its backlinks for more broken link opportunities or use it as a URL campaign inside BrokenLinkBuilding.com

Site discovery

The above technique may sometimes reveal entire domains that are 404'd, but often rather than being 404'd they are simply no longer active. Because of this, the sites do not return any error code at all. If you find an entire domain that is 404'd, you have a huge opportunity to reclaim links.
First, a quick note on the ethics we discussed before. If the domain is no longer registered, you have every right to snatch it up. However, I would argue that it is probably not in your best interest to simply redirect this site to yours. I would recommend a different method - one that is likely to pay dividends in a couple of directions.
  1. Register the domain using your valid contact information
  2. Do not re-launch the site
  3. Begin reclaiming links through Broken Link Building like you always have
  4. If and when the original webmaster reaches out to ask why you now own the domain s/he accidentally dropped, offer to transfer it back to them and build a relationship that could earn you a link from that site as well.
This method allows you to protect the asset from others, potentially earn a link from the asset, continue the BLB process, and stay within the BLB commandments. You might be able to squeeze more authority out of it with a redirect, but I doubt Google will give you all the credit.
So, back to the prospecting side. How do we find these types of domains? Well, here we would want to enlist the help of Domain Hunter Plus, a fantastic Chrome Extension that helps you find not only broken links but unregistered domains. Instead of rehashing, a perfectly useful guide can be found here at PointBlank SEO.

Advanced content creation

In the BLB Old Testament, I didn't spend enough time talking through what type of content is most likely to succeed with broken link building. It seems straightforward enough that content similar to the broken resource is likely to do well, but is there anything else you can do to improve the success rate? Of course. I will run through a couple of them here...
  • Think Panda: If you have never read through the Panda Questionnaire before, take a look at it here in the section labeled "Briefly: What is the Panda Algorithm". Your BLB content should try and hit these guidelines with perfect precision. Make sure your content is insightful, well written, thorough, and cleanly designed. Spending extra time with your content will make a huge difference in conversion rate.
  • Be obvious about the publish date: The last thing that a webmaster wants to do is replace one broken link with another. They need to feel confident that the replacement you are offering them won't get outdated any time soon. The easiest way to do this is make it clear that the content has been updated by a certain date. In fact, I recommend including this in the outreach email, saying something like... "this one was updated recently and seems to cover the same content..."
  • Be thorough: The webmaster you reach out to may only be interested in a small part of the page they once linked to. A giant resource page on cancer may have a specific statistic they are citing, or a description of a particular treatment option. Make sure that your content covers all the bases. Once again, this ties into the outreach itself and explains why the one-to-one email campaigns do better than automated campaigns. If you look at your target's site before emailing them, you know which sections to point out in the outreach email that show why the new link you propose meets her/his needs.
  • Citations: Unless your site is already a well known and respected brand, chances are you need to build up your credibility a bit before you start asking people to link to your content. Make sure your site is Wikipedia-esque in its outbound linking and citations. You will often find that many of the sites which you are reaching out to actually have great content that you can cite in your own work. Nothing increases the likelihood of a converted outreach email than the webmaster finding their own content properly cited as part of the body of research behind a strong content piece.

Advanced outreach

Short-form

This is often the go-to template for broken link building. It is quick, easy, and effective. However, I wouldn't use it on your highest-value prospects. If there is a really good opportunity, jump to the long-form and spend some time crafting a thoughtful email. Here is what it looks like...
  • Subject: found a broken link on ##page##
  • Body: Just wanted to let you know there is a broken link to ##broken## on your page ##page##. Found this instead ##replacement##. Might want to fix it.
And that is it. Short and simple. Of course, you would want to replace the ##page##, ##broken## and ##replacement## with the page that has the broken link, the broken link, and your replacement link respectively.

Long-form

The long form is very effective for high value prospects and is worth your time and effort. Generally speaking, there are 3 parts to an effective long-form outreach template...
  1. Inbox justification
  2. Custom pitch
  3. Thank you
Let's run through these really quickly...
  1. Inbox Justification: Go ahead and get out on the table why you are emailing the webmaster. They don't know who you are and the least you can do is offer them early on a reason to read your email. Don't lie. You don't have to say "I was reading your website and I found...". Just say something to the effect of: "Hi, I am ##name## and I noticed that you have a broken link to ##broken resource name## (##broken resource link##) on your ##page name## (##page url##)." No need to mention the replacement yet.
  2. Personal Touch: Here is where you explain why your replacement is a good fit and why you are personally invested in it. Go ahead and say if you are the business owner. If you created excellent content, there is nothing to be ashamed of! Tell them why you care about people finding the right content and how yours improves upon the one you are replacing. Give them a reason to believe if they add your link that it will stay updated for the long haul. Normally, you want to touch 3 main points: it's new and improved, it's here for the long run, and you are personally invested in guaranteeing that.
  3. Thank You: Finally, be cordial and grateful that someone took the time out of their day to read your email. Don't just say "thanks," but actually express some gratitude for not hitting the delete button the second it showed up in their inbox. You'd be surprised, but genuine thankfulness is so rare in emails these days that many people are shocked to just have someone be nice. Honestly, when is the last time you wrote an email where the send off was something more than "thx" or just your name?
Long story short, the long form can be far more effective, so use it for your top prospects every time. Once you get good at it, you will see your conversions jump dramatically.

Double tap

The double tap is the follow-up method for either the short form or long form. If you haven't heard back from a webmaster (give it a week or so) and it is a high value prospect, send a second email from a different account but don't make a recommendation for a replacement. Just point out that the link is broken. A lot of webmasters blow off the first email because one broken link doesn't seem like a big problem. However, if multiple users indicate that it is a problem, it will draw their attention. Here is a quick pro-tip. In the follow-up email, don't say the page that the broken link is on, just say they have a broken link pointing to ##brokenpage##. This will send them searching through their inbox for that email they ignored before which had all the information.

Slow play

The reverse of the double tap is the slow play. The slow play involves first sending an email that simply says "you have a broken link to ##page##". These types of emails likely result in a response like... "what page did you find it on?". You then have an in to say something like... "Hold on a second... yeah, the broken link to ##broken## is on ##page##, I actually just put up a replacement here ##replacement##". This methodology is particularly good if you aren't comfortable leading with the content pitch. Unfortunately, it does require more effort.

The bandwagon

Sometimes all a webmaster needs to hear is that their competitors are delivering when they are not. It can seem odd that you so easily found a replacement for their broken link, but if you explain to the webmaster that you found the replacement on a competitor's website, they will be more likely to add it so more of their users don't end up with a better experience on the competitor's resource page. Of course, make sure that you actually score a link from the competitor's website first before you start using that in an email. Otherwise you are likely to get called out and, frankly, it would be a violation of the ethical guidelines we discussed earlier.

Revelation

I'd like to conclude with some thoughts on the future of Broken Link Building. The technique has been around in one form or another for over a decade now. It has slowly grown to become more scalable with improved prospecting and outreach tools. However, it has never exploded like other link building fads because...
  1. There is a limited, although renewable, supply of opportunities
  2. Content creation is often necessary for success
  3. Quality drives conversion rates
The shortcuts just aren't the same; they're the very shortcuts that tend to get us in trouble with Google. I want you to think about Broken Link Building just like you might think of a natural resource. Let's use it wisely. There is plenty to go around.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
Publicat de 1 la 09:33 0 comentarii

Seth's Blog : Feeling the heat

 

Feeling the heat

When things get dicey, we notice that some people are feeling the heat. Others are just fine, doing their work, unfazed by the situation.

The thing is, it's not the heat that's actually the issue. It's the feeling.

How you process what's happening is up to us, isn't it?

       

 

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marți, 23 septembrie 2014

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Publicat de 1 la 23:05 0 comentarii

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Eurozone Composite Signals Slowdown; French Private Sector Output Decline 5th Month; German Manufacturing Approaches Stagnation

Posted: 23 Sep 2014 09:53 PM PDT

French Private Sector Output Decline 5th Month

The demise in France continues. Markit reports French Private Sector Output Falls Further in September.
Key points:

  • Flash France Composite Output Index(1) falls to 49.1 (49.5 in August), 3-month low
  • Flash France Services Activity Index(2) drops to 49.4 (50.3 in August), 3-month low
  • Flash France Manufacturing Output Index(3) rises to 47.9 (45.8 in August), 4-month high
  • Flash France Manufacturing PMI(4) climbs to 48.8 (46.9 in August), 4-month high

The latest flash PMI data indicated a fifth consecutive monthly decline in French private sector output during September.

Underlying reduced activity was a drop in the level of new business received by French private sector firms during the latest survey period. Although slight, the reduction in new orders reversed a rise in August. Whereas manufacturers signalled a solid decline in new work, service providers registered a fractional fall. Panellists commented on subdued demand conditions both domestically and in certain export markets. Manufacturers recorded a drop in foreign orders for the fifth month running.

Employment in the French private sector continued to fall in September, extending the current period of job shedding to 11 months. Moreover, the rate of contraction quickened to the sharpest since February. Similar rates of decline were indicated in the services and manufacturing sectors.

Backlogs of work in the French private sector decreased for a fifth successive month in September, although the rate of contraction eased to a fractional pace. Slight growth of outstanding business at service providers was offset by a marked reduction of backlogs at manufacturers.

Comment:

Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit, which compiles the Flash France PMI ® survey, said: "French economic performance weakened in September, as a return to contraction of the service sector outweighed an easing rate of decline in manufacturing. Anaemic demand continues to hold back the private sector, with further price cutting insufficient to prevent new orders from falling. Firms responded to the continued weakness by lowering employment at the sharpest rate since February."
Eurozone Composite Signals Slowdown

Markit reports Flash Eurozone PMI Signals Further Waning of Growth.
Key points:

  • Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 52.3 (52.5 in August). 9-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 52.8 (53.1 in August). 3-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI(3) at 50.5 (50.7 in August). 14-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index(4) at 51.0 (51.0 in August). Unchanged.

Euro area business activity grew in September at the lowest rate seen so far this year, according to the preliminary 'flash' PMI survey data.

At 52.3, down from 52.5 in August, the Markit Eurozone PMI™ Composite Output Index fell for a second month running, dropping to its lowest since December of last year. At 52.9, the average quarterly reading for the three months to September was also the lowest so far this year.

Inflows of new orders rose only modestly, with the rate of increase waning for the third successive month to register the smallest monthly improvement since August of last year.

Manufacturing fared worse than the service sector with the headline PMI falling to 50.5, its lowest since July of last year and edging closer to the 50.0 mark that signals stagnation. Although factory output grew slightly, new orders fell for the first time since June of last year. Employment was unchanged and prices charged by factories fell for the first time since April.

By country, faster growth in Germany, led by the service sector, was offset by an ongoing downturn in France and slowing of growth elsewhere in the region.

Comments

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:

"The survey paints a picture of ongoing malaise in the eurozone economy. With growth of output and demand slowing, employment once again failed to show any meaningful increase. Such torpor meant prices continued to fall as firms fought for customers, which will inevitably heighten concerns that the region is facing deflation. "For a central bank hoping that the economic data flow will start to improve, the ECB will be disappointed by the ongoing weakness of the PMI. The survey data suggest GDP is on course to grow by 0.3% at best in the third quarter, buoyed by a 0.4% expansion in Germany but dragged down by stagnation in France and sluggish growth in the rest of the region."
German Manufacturing Approaches Stagnation

The Markit Germany Flash PMI shows Private sector growth maintained in September, but manufacturing edges closer to stagnation.
Key points:

  • Flash Germany Composite Output Index at 54.0 (53.7 in August), 2-month high.
  • Flash Germany Services Activity Index at 55.4 (54.9 in August), 2-month high.
  • Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI at 50.3 (51.4 in August), 15-month low.
  • Flash Germany Manufacturing Output Index at 51.1 (51.5 in August), 15-month low.

September data signalled a continuation of the ongoing expansion in German private sector output, as highlighted by the seasonally adjusted Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index rising slightly from 53.7 in August to 54.0. The current period of growth now stretches to 17 months and surveyed companies generally linked this to increased order intakes. However, the gap between manufacturing and services widened further in September. Production growth in the goods-producing sector slowed to a 15-month low, while service sector output rose at a slightly faster pace compared to August.

Comment:

Oliver Kolodseike, Economist at Markit and author of the Flash Germany PMI®, said: "September's flash PMI results paint a mixed picture of the health of the German economy at the end of the third quarter. Total private sector output continued to rise at an above average rate and employment growth picked up again, attributed in both cases to a strong service sector. However, new order growth slowed for a fourth month running and was the weakest in one year, suggesting that activity growth might slow in the near-term. "The introduction of a national minimum wage in January 2015 meanwhile weighed on service sector sentiment, with business expectations the lowest in nearly two years. "Moreover, recently weak manufacturing data have become one of the most conspicuous features of the fragility of a broad-based recovery. Production growth slowed further and new orders contracted for the first time in well over a year amid reports of a weakening economic environment. It remains to be seen if Germany's goods-producing sector is in the midst of a slowdown or whether recent poor data present just a temporary soft patch."
Soft Spot or Something Else?

I have been calling for a downturn in Germany for some time but it has not happened yet. However, the reports pretty much speak for themselves.


The near stagnation of German manufacturing coupled with contraction in France and a slowdown in growth elsewhere tells the story.

Germany cannot forever disconnect from the rest of the eurozone, especially France and Italy (Italy report not out yet but it is highly unlikely to be any good.)

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Battle for Perpetual War is Won; US Admits Attacks on ISIS Could Last Years; Expect an Accident

Posted: 23 Sep 2014 12:58 PM PDT

Victory Announced in Battle "for" Perpetual War

The warmonger dream of perpetual war has been won: US says Attacks on Isis Could Last Years.
The multiple airstrikes launched by the US and its Arab allies against Islamist militants in Syria were the "beginnings of a sustained campaign" that could last for years, the Pentagon said on Tuesday.

The airstrikes represent a dramatic volte face for a president who has spent three years battling pressure in Washington to get more involved in Syria and who was elected on a promise to bring the country's wars in the Middle East to an end.

The US separately bombed facilities controlled by the al-Qaeda affiliate Khorasan group in Syria, near Aleppo, after receiving intelligence it was planning "imminent" attcks on Europe and possibly the US, the Pentagon said.

The bombing of non-Isis militants angered some Syrian rebels groups who feared any Islamist group could be targeted, even if they had no intention of mounting attacks outside Syria, to the benefit of Bashar al-Assad's regime.

"We did not request the regime's permission. We did not co-ordinate our actions with the Syrian government. We did not provide advance notification to the Syrians at a military level, or give any indication of our timing on specific targets," said Jen Psaki, the state department spokeswoman.
No Permission, No Coordination, From "Natural Allies"

Syrian president Assad is fighting ISIS so is the US. Please consider Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister: We're 'Fighting the Same Enemy'
Syria has "no reservations" about U.S. airstrikes against ISIS and wants to team up with Washington to tackle the militants, the country's deputy foreign minister told NBC News.

Faisal Mekdad called Syria's President Bashar al-Assad "a natural ally" for the U.S. in its battle against ISIS, saying in an exclusive interview that both countries are "fighting the same enemy" and should be working together — not antagonizing each other.

"When it comes to terrorism, we should forget our differences… and forget all about the past," Mekdad said. "It takes two to tango...We are ready to talk."
Obama Threatens Assad if US Planes Downed

Ready to Talk? The US is not ready to talk.  Why talk when the battle for perpetual war has been won?

Instead Obama Threatens Assad if US Planes Downed in Syrian Airspace.
US President Barack Obama has threatened to wipe out Syria's air defense system and topple the Syrian government if President Bashar al-Assad ordered his forces to shoot American planes entering Syrian airspace.

He made the remarks during a meeting in the White House before his speech about Washington's strategy about the ISIL terrorist group, The New York Times reported on Sunday.

Obama ordered the US military on Wednesday to expand its bombing campaign against ISIL terrorists and launch airstrikes in Syria.

"If he [Assad] dared to do that, Mr. Obama said he would order American forces to wipe out Syria's air defense system, which he noted would be easier than striking ISIS (or ISIL) because its locations are better known," the newspaper said.

"He went on to say that such an action by Mr. Assad would lead to his overthrow, according to one account," the Times said.
Expect an Accident

  1. Assad has no interest in downing a US aircraft. Syria even offered cooperation (not that Syria had much to cooperate with - but at least the position of Assad towards ISIS is credible).
  2. The US responded with a credible threat to flatten Syria's air defense system.
  3. The only group happier than the warmongers with that prospect would be ISIS.
  4. Thus, the top priority of ISIS is now clear. Shoot down any US military aircraft.
  5. If ISIS can succeed or if something (even a friendly fire accident) happens to cause a US pilot to eject, the US will flatten Syria's air defense system.

Anyone smell an accident coming up?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Miracle Not Enough to Save Italy; Disruptive Eurozone Breakup Awaits

Posted: 23 Sep 2014 10:36 AM PDT

Analysis of what's happening and what to do about problems are two different things.

Financial Times writer Wolfgang Münchau provides an excellent example in Italy Debt Burden is a Problem For Us All.

Münchau's opening gambit is "We need extreme and co-ordinated policy to make it possible for Italy to ultimately stay in the eurozone."

Münchau states, "I think it is high time to address the consequences of failure with more clarity than is usually done. Put bluntly, Italy's economic position is unsustainable and will result in eventual debt default unless there is a sudden and durable change in economic growth. At that point, Italy's future in the eurozone would also be in doubt – and indeed the future of the euro itself."

High Time For Honest Assessment

Actually, it is indeed "high time" for something. What we need is an honest assessment from political leaders and euro puppets that the euro is doomed.

The flaws of the euro are well understood. I am 100% certain that Münchau could write a playbook on them with ease.

Münchau even admits that it would be "naive" to believe economic reforms can save Italy.

"The economic adjustment needed goes much beyond a few structural reforms. Italy needs changes in the legal system, it needs to bring taxes down to the eurozone average, and to improve the quality and efficiency of the public sector. It needs, in other words, to change the entire political system. Even that may not be enough."  

According to Münchau (and I wholeheartedly agree), Italy needs economic reform, a new legal system, lower taxes, less government spending, pension reform, and more productivity. And even that might not be enough! 

Nonetheless, to support his political beliefs, he seeks a miracle.

Miracle Requested

"I could see the ECB buying a wide range of debt instruments, starting with asset-backed securities and covered bonds as already announced. On top of that, it could buy other types of financial securities – bonds from the European Stability Mechanism, the eurozone's rescue umbrella, and from the European Investment Bank. The Commission could use the EIB to launch a big programme of infrastructure bonds. The best hope for Italy is that some of that trickles down into the real economy. I am optimistic that these programmes will have a noticeable positive effect on the eurozone as a whole, but much less certain of their effect on Italy."

Miracle Might Not Be Enough!

Münchau asks for that set of miracles from the ECB, yet is "less certain of their effect on Italy". Why? because "radical reform is not enough".

Note the irony in Münchau's conclusion "Italian debt sustainability requires policies at eurozone level that have so far been ruled out. This is where the eurozone's success or failure will be decided."

Eurozone Already Failed

Spain's unemployment rate is close to 25%. Its growth and unemployment prospects are nil.

Spain has no chance of meeting budget targets. Nor do France and Italy. Greece and Cyprus are in depressions. France is waiting on deck with problems as big as Italy's.

Any thinking person with an ounce of common sense he would readily admit the eurozone has already failed and it cannot and will not be revived by wishful thinking.

Miracles are not coming. However, there are choices, all of them unpalatable, to the eurozone nannycrat.

Eurozone Choices

1. Voluntarily dismantle the eurozone in the least destructive manner
2. Dismantle the eurozone by populist choice with huge financial disruptions
3. Suffer through decades of stagnant growth and extremely high unemployment

Option 4, pray for a miracle is not a logical choice.

Unless done voluntarily, it's easy to predict what will eventually happen: After suffering long enough in option 3, a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and declare all the bailouts and debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.

What to Do About It

No miracle that can keep the eurozone project intact. If Münchau was honest with himself, he would admit it.

The only thing that makes any sense to do is dismantle the eurozone, by choice, before someone like Marine Le Pen in France, Beppe Grillo in Italy, or an unknown person in Spain or elsewhere does it by force.

Disruptive Eurozone Breakup Awaits

Instead of seeking miracles that won't work and are not coming in the first place, how about an honest dialog on the best way to break up the eurozone?

Unfortunately, that will not happen because it is politically unacceptable.  A disruptive breakup of the eurozone awaits.

Addendum

Reader Marian states "If indeed Italy's problems are it's legal system, tax rates, quality and efficiency of the public sector, then simply dissolving the EU, even in an orderly way, would not address these fundamental issues."

Marian is of course correct! But why should the rest of Europe have to suffer with bailing out Italy when that approach cannot possibly fix the problem?

Can-kicking exercise only make the problem worse for all involved. By dissolving the eurozone, countries would be forced to address the real issues instead of praying for miracles from the ECB.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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