vineri, 31 octombrie 2014

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


21 Things You Need To Be Ready For When You Live With A Girl

Posted: 31 Oct 2014 10:14 AM PDT

Living with a girl is an adventure, so you need to be ready for it.





















The Cast Of "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Then And Now

Posted: 31 Oct 2014 10:01 AM PDT

A lot can change in 17 years.






















What SEOs Need to Know About Topic Modeling & Semantic Connectivity - Whiteboard Friday

What SEOs Need to Know About Topic Modeling & Semantic Connectivity - Whiteboard Friday


What SEOs Need to Know About Topic Modeling & Semantic Connectivity - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 30 Oct 2014 05:15 PM PDT

Posted by randfish

Search engines, especially Google, have gotten remarkably good at understanding searchers' intent—what we mean to search for, even if that's not exactly what we search for. How in the world do they do this? It's incredibly complex, but in today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand covers the basics—what we all need to know about how entities are connected in search.

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard!

Video Transcription

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're talking topic modeling and semantic connectivity. Those words might sound big and confusing, but, in fact, they are important to understanding the operations of search engines, and they have some direct influence on things that we might do as SEOs, hence our need to understand them.

Now, I'm going to make a caveat here. I am not an expert in this topic. I have not taken the required math classes, stats classes, programming classes to truly understand this topic in a way that I would feel extremely comfortable explaining. However, even at the surface level of understanding, I feel like I can give some compelling information that hopefully you all and myself included can go research some more about. We're certainly investigating a lot of topic modeling opportunities and possibilities here at Moz. We've done so in the past, and we're revisiting that again for some future tools, so the topic is fresh on my mind.

So here's the basic concept. The idea is that search engines are smarter than just knowing that a word, a phrase that someone searches for, like "Super Mario Brothers," is only supposed to bring back results that have exactly the words "Super Mario Brothers," that perfect phrase in the title and in the headline and in the document itself. That's still an SEO best practice because you're trying to serve visitors who have that search query. But search engines are actually a lot smarter than this.

One of my favorite examples is how intelligent Google has gotten around movie topics. So try, for example, searching for "That movie where the guy is called The Dude," and you will see that Google properly returns "The Big Lebowski" in the first ranking position. How do they know that? Well, they've essentially connected up "movie," "The Dude," and said, "Aha, those things are most closely related to 'The Big Lebowski. That's what the intent of the searcher is. That's the document that we're going to return, not a document that happens to have 'That movie about the guy named 'The Dude' in the title, exactly those words.'"

Here's another example. So this is Super Mario Brothers, and Super Mario Brothers might be connected to a lot of other terms and phrases. So a search engine might understand that Super Mario Brothers is a little bit more semantically connected to Mario than it is to Luigi, then to Nintendo and then Bowser, the jumping dragon guy, turtle with spikes on his back -- I'm not sure exactly what he is -- and Princess Peach.

As you go down here, the search engine might actually have a topic modeling algorithm, something like latent semantic indexing, which was an early model, or a later model like latent Dirichlet allocation, which is a somewhat later model, or even predictive latent Dirichlet allocation, which is an even later model. Model's not particularly important, especially for our purposes.

What is important is to know that there's probably some scoring going on. A search engine -- Google, Bing -- can understand that some of these words are more connected to Super Mario Brothers than others, and it can do the reverse. They can say Super Mario Brothers is somewhat connected to video games and very not connected to cat food. So if we find a page that happens to have the title element of Super Mario Brothers, but most of the on-page content seems to be about cat food, well, maybe we shouldn't rank that even if it has lots of incoming links with anchor text saying "Super Mario Brothers" or a very high page rank or domain authority or those kinds of things.

So search engines, Google, in particular, has gotten very, very smart about this connectivity stuff and this topic modeling post-Hummingbird. Hummingbird, of course, being the algorithm update from last fall that changed a lot of how they can interpret words and phrases.

So knowing that Google and Bing can calculate this relative connectivity, connectivity between the words and phrases and topics, we want to know how are they doing this. That answer is actually extremely broad. So that could come from co-occurrence in web documents. Sorry for turning my back on the camera. I know I'm supposed to move like this, but I just had to do a little twirl for you.

Distance between the keywords. I mean distance on the actual page itself. Does Google find "Super Mario Brothers" near the word "Mario" on a lot of the documents where the two occur, or are they relatively far away? Maybe Super Mario Brothers does appear with cat food a lot, but they're quite far away. They might look at citations and links between documents in terms of, boy, there's a lot pages on the web, when they talk about Super Mario Brothers, they also link to pages about Mario, Luigi, Nintendo, etc.

They can look at the anchor text connections of those links. They could look at co-occurrence of those words biased by a given corpi, a set of corpuses, or from certain domains. So they might say, "Hey, we only want to pay attention to what's on the fresh web right now or in the blogosphere or on news sites or on trusted domains, these kinds of things as opposed to looking at all of the documents on the web." They might choose to do this in multiple different sets of corpi.

They can look at queries from searchers, which is a really powerful thing that we unfortunately don't have access to. So they might see searcher behavior saying that a lot of people who search for Mario, Luigi, Nintendo are also searching for Super Mario Brothers.

They might look at searcher clicks, visits, history, all of that browser data that they've got from Chrome and from Android and, of course, from Google itself, and they might say those are corpi that they use to connect up words and phrases.

Probably there's a whole list of other places that they're getting this from. So they can build a very robust data set to connect words and phrases. For us, as SEOs, this means a few things.

If you're targeting a keyword for rankings, say "Super Mario Brothers," those semantically connected and related terms and phrases can help with a number of things. So if you could know that these were the right words and phrases that search engines connected to Super Mario Brothers, you can do all sorts of stuff. Things like inclusion on the page itself, helping to tell the search engine my page is more relevant for Super Mario Brothers because I include words like Mario, Luigi, Princess Peach, Bowser, Nintendo, etc. as opposed to things like cat food, dog food, T-shirts, glasses, what have you.

You can think about it in the links that you earn, the documents that are linking to you and whether they contain those words and phrases and are on those topics, the anchor text that points to you potentially. You can certainly be thinking about this from a naming convention and branding standpoint. So if you're going to call a product something or call a page something or your unique version of it, you might think about including more of these words or biasing to have those words in the description of the product itself, the formal product description.

For an About page, you might think about the formal bio for a person or a company, including those kinds of words, so that as you're getting cited around the web or on your book cover jacket or in the presentation that you give at a conference, those words are included. They don't necessarily have to be links. This is a potentially powerful thing to say a lot of people who mention Super Mario Brothers tend to point to this page Nintendo8.com, which I think actually you can play the original "Super Mario Brothers" live on the web. It's kind of fun. Sorry to waste your afternoon with that.

Of course, these can also be additional keywords that you might consider targeting. This can be part of your keyword research in addition to your on-page and link building optimization.

What's unfortunate is right now there are not a lot of tools out there to help you with this process. There is a tool from Virante. Russ Jones, I think did some funding internally to put this together, and it's quite cool. It's  nTopic.org. Hopefully, this Whiteboard Friday won't bring that tool to its knees by sending tons of traffic over there. But if it does, maybe give it a few days and come back. It gives you a broad score with a little more data if you register and log in. It's got a plugin for Chrome and for WordPress. It's fairly simplistic right now, but it might help you say, "Is this page on the topic of the term or phrase that I'm targeting?"

There are many, many downloadable tools and libraries. In fact, Code.google.com has an LDA topic modeling tool specifically, and that might have been something that Google used back in the day. We don't know.

If you do a search for topic modeling tools, you can find these. Unfortunately, almost all of them are going to require some web development background at the very least. Many of them rely on a Python library or an API. Almost all of them also require a training corpus in order to model things on. So you can think about, "Well, maybe I can download Wikipedia's content and use that as a training model or use the top 10 search results from Google as some sort of training model."

This is tough stuff. This is one of the reasons why at Moz I'm particularly passionate about trying to make this something that we can help with in our on-page optimization and keyword difficulty tools, because I think this can be very powerful stuff.

What is true is that you can spot check this yourself right now. It is very possible to go look at things like related searches, look at the keyword terms and phrases that also appear on the pages that are ranking in the top 10 and extract these things out and use your own mental intelligence to say, "Are these terms and phrases relevant? Should they be included? Are these things that people would be looking for? Are they topically relevant?" Consider including them and using them for all of these things. Hopefully, over time, we'll get more sophisticated in the SEO world with tools that can help with this.

All right, everyone, hope you've enjoyed this addition of Whiteboard Friday. Look forward to some great comments, and we'll see you again next week. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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Explore the latest updates and tips every month.
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In this issue of AdSense Insider, you’ll discover the latest Ad review center features, learn how ThriftyFun.com adopted Responsive Web Design (RWD) to engage their mobile audience, and sign-up for the upcoming AdSense survey.
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Did you know:
27%
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Source: Credit Suisse Global Equity Themes report, September 2014.
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Source: Credit Suisse Global Equity Themes report, September 2014.
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Seth's Blog : Plasticity

 

Plasticity

Can you change?

Are you stuck with your habits, your knowledge, your weight, your fitness, your interpersonal skills? Is your future a slightly different rerun of your past?

We spend an enormous amount of time and money seeking to reinvent and upgrade ourselves, working to give up something, start something, build something or change something about who we are and what we do.

And we usually fail.

It's tempting to say, "this is who I am, habits are hardwired, it's in my DNA, I'm going to live with it." Tempting, and an easy way out. 

Change is hard, sometimes nearly impossible. But if even one person as far behind as we are has dug in and done enough work to finish that marathon, to change that habit or to learn that skill, it means that it's not impossible. Merely (astonishingly) difficult.

Knowing that it's possible is 86% of the project.

       

 

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joi, 30 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Looking for a Good Education at a Low Price, Perhaps Free? Head to Europe

Posted: 30 Oct 2014 06:53 PM PDT

On June 7, 2014 I wrote Looking to Drastically Reduce College Costs? Study Abroad!

Yesterday, a writer for the Washington Post expressed the same opinion.

Please consider 7 countries where Americans can study at universities, in English, for free (or almost free).
Since 1985, U.S. college costs have surged by about 500 percent, and tuition fees keep rising. In Germany, they've done the opposite.

The country's universities have been tuition-free since the beginning of October, when Lower Saxony became the last state to scrap the fees. Tuition rates were always low in Germany, but now the German government fully funds the education of its citizens -- and even of foreigners.

What might interest potential university students in the United States is that Germany offers some programs in English -- and it's not the only country. Let's take a look at the surprising -- and very cheap -- alternatives to pricey American college degrees.

Germany

Americans can earn a German undergraduate or graduate degree without speaking a word of German and without having to pay a single dollar of tuition fees: About 900 undergraduate or graduate degrees are offered exclusively in English, with courses ranging from engineering to social sciences.

Finland

This northern European country charges no tuition fees, and it offers a large number of university programs in English. However, the Finnish government amiably reminds interested foreigners that they "are expected to independently cover all everyday living expenses." In other words: Finland will finance your education, but not your afternoon coffee break.

France

There are at least 76 English-language undergraduate programs in France, but many are offered by private universities and are expensive. Many more graduate-level courses, however, are designed for English-speaking students, and one out of every three French doctoral degrees is awarded to a foreign student. "It is no longer needed to be fluent in French to study in France," according to the government agency Campus France.

Sweden

This Scandinavian country is among the world's wealthiest, and its beautiful landscape beckons. It also offers some of the world's most cost-efficient college degrees. More than 300 listed programs in 35 universities are taught in English. However, only Ph.D programs are tuition-free.

Norway

Norwegian universities do not charge tuition fees for international students. The Norwegian higher education system is similar to the one in the United States: Class sizes are small and professors are easily approachable. Many Norwegian universities offer programs taught in English.

Slovenia

About 150 English programs are available, and foreign nationals only pay an insignificant registration fee when they enroll.

Brazil

Some Brazilian courses are taught in English, and state universities charge only minor registration fees. Times Higher Education ranks two Brazilian universities among the world's top 400: the University of Sao Paulo and the State University of Campinas. However, Brazil might be better suited for exchange students seeking a cultural experience rather than a degree.
That excellent information (more in the above link) is from Washington Post foreign affairs writer Rick Noack.

I believe it's near-crazy to pay $30,000 (or far more) in the US for what can be had in Europe for free.

Eventually costs will crash in the US for the simple reason, they must. Online education ensures that outcome.

For details, please see Future of Education is At Hand: Online, Accredited, Affordable, Useful

Here's my more recent followup post: Teaching Revolution: Online, Accredited, Free; Start Learning Now!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Earnings Cheating Season: Is Your Favorite Company Cooking the Books?

Posted: 30 Oct 2014 12:14 PM PDT

In his latest Global Strategy Report, Albert Edwards at Societe Generale discusses "earnings season" which he calls "cheating season".
We have always found that swings in analyst earnings expectations mirror the economic cycle quite well, but because of the weekly frequency, swings in analyst earnings optimism often act as a timely leading indicator for the economic cycle. If that is still the case, the recent data for the US should be worrying. Despite the soothing Q3 headline earnings reports as US companies 'game' the system, all is not well once you look into the 'MUC' (Manipulated Underperforms Conservative).

Remember the so-called Fed model? We were told that the extraordinarily high PEs were justified by low bond yields. The
key plank of the Ice Age theory was that this positive correlation would break down and that equities would de-rate in absolute and relative terms compared to government bonds thereby inverting the close positive correlation between bond and equity yields.

What this also means is that in an Ice Age world, the equity cycle will more closely correlate with economic and profits cycles. Most correlation analysis finds virtually no post-war relationship between economic growth and the stock market.

But, this does not hold true during the Ice Age. Indeed, we knew from Japan that the equity market would start to track the economic and earnings cycle closely.

In the Ice Age, equity investors need to pay close attention to economic and earnings cycles and not be comforted by lower bond yields. If that is the case equity investors should be getting nervous NOW as earnings optimism starts to fall away sharply.

Earnings Upgrades vs. Downgrades as Percentage of Changes



We have long believed that the US reporting season should in fact be called the US cheating season as companies game the market to ramp earnings down ahead of company announcements only to beat analysts estimates by 1¢ on the day!

Apparently companies believe the feel-good news headlines of a earnings beat will offset the negative impact of downward guidance ahead of the report. In fact the evidence suggests otherwise: my colleague Andrew Lapthorne has shown that those companies that engage in earnings manipulation underperform those that do not. He developed a very useful MUC Score, Manipulated Underperforms Conservative.

(An update of the MUC is being delayed while Andrew works on an update of a more comprehensive earnings quality score, formally called the cheating, or C-score. Developed by my former colleague James Montier, Andrew changed the name as companies got mighty shirty when they appeared on this list!)

I rely on Andrew for this timely weekly data which he highlights every Monday in the Global Equity Market Arithmetic.

This week, he notes that "despite being in the US reporting season, which typically delivers manufactured surprises and therefore an improvement in US earnings momentum, we have been surprised by the complete lack of a bounce in upgrades versus downgrades. Not only has there been zero bounce, but next year's expectations continue to be downgraded with 65% of all estimate changes to 2015 currently coming through as downgrades. Meanwhile European earnings momentum has also collapsed. Hardly an inspiring environment for pushing equities further upwards."

US Earnings Momentum



European Earnings Momentum



[Mish Note: For further discussion please see Equities Bounce Back Strongly Despite Awful Earnings Momentum by Andrew Lapthorne].

We need to be watching this weaker than expected earnings optimism data closely. Certainly the front page chart shows the apex of weakness globally is in the US and it is entirely plausible that the deflationary winds blowing around the world are washing up on US shores with the situation worsened still by the stronger dollar. A sharp decline in EPS optimism since 2009 has been consistent with previous hiatuses in financial markets. In other words, there may be more to the recent flash-crash than just one weak retail sales datum a deeper malaise surrounding weak profits may be driving events.
Is Your Favorite Company Cooking the Books?

In addition to his own excellent analysis, Albert linked to Montier's C-Score: Are your favourite stocks cooking the books?.

To help decide, Montier came up with six questions. The answer is binary: yes or no.

  1. Is there a growing divergence between net income and operating cash-flow? Management has less flexibility to alter cash flow, whereas earnings can be stuffed for all sorts of "funnies".
  2. Are Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) increasing? If so (i.e. accounts receivable are growing faster than sales), this may be a sign of channel stuffing.
  3. Are days sales of inventory (DSI) increasing? If so, this may suggest slowing sales, not a good sign.
  4. Are other current assets increasing vs. revenues? As some CFOs know that DSO and/or DSI are usually closely watched, they may use this catch-all line item to help hide things they don't want investors to focus upon.
  5. Are there declines in depreciation relative to gross property plant and equipment? This guards against firms altering their estimate of useful asset life to beat earnings targets.
  6. Is total asset growth high? Some firms are serial acquirers and use their acquisitions to distort their earnings. While this may be justified in some circumstance, generally it has been shown that high asset growth firms underperform.

Does It Work?
As a shorting tool, Montier suggests using the C-Score in combination with some measure of over-valuation. This was on the basis that high-flying and generally more expensive stocks that are tempted to alter their earnings in order to maintain their high growth status. He used a threshold price to sales ratio of 2 and found that this drove the absolute return down to -4% in both the US and Europe!
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ebola "Turning Point" and Perspective

Posted: 30 Oct 2014 09:28 AM PDT

Last Week the Huffington Post reported Ebola.com Sells For More Than $200,000 -- Including 19,000 Shares Of Cannabis Sativa Stock.
Two Las Vegas entrepreneurs attempting to sell the rights to Ebola.com succeeded in selling to the highest bidder -- literally.

Chris Hood and Jon Schultz paid $13,500 for the rights to Ebola.com back in 2008 and have just sold it to a company called Weed Growth Fund.

The terms of sale call for Hood and Schultz to get $50,000 in cash and 19,192 shares of Cannabis Sativa, Inc., a company run by former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson that hopes to market legal cannabis products throughout the world.

The stock is currently trading under the CBDS ticker symbol at $8.55 share, which means the value of the shares sold to Hood and Schultz is $164,091.
Add it up and they received $214,091. That's quite a profit, but the sellers made even more on LasVegasRealEstate.com and PayDayLoans.Com.

There is certainly a lot of attention on the disease. But what are the real risks?

The following chart of number of ebola cases and the country of origin from The Guardian will add a much needed perspective.

Ebola Cases



Turning Point

Admittedly the disease is very scary. About 70% of the people who contract the disease die from it. But according to  Dr Jeremy Farrar of Wellcome Trust and as reported by The Guardian in Ebola 'May Have Reached Turning Point'
The Ebola epidemic in west Africa may have reached a turning point, according to the director of the Wellcome Trust, which is funding an unprecedented series of fast-tracked trials of vaccines and drugs against the disease.

Writing in the Guardian, Dr Jeremy Farrar says that although there are several bleak months ahead, "it is finally becoming possible to see some light. In the past 10 days, the international community has belatedly begun to take the actions necessary to start turning Ebola's tide.

"The progress made is preliminary and uncertain; even if ultimately successful it will not reduce mortality or stop transmission for some time. We are not close to seeing the beginning of the end of the epidemic but [several] developments offer hope that we may have reached the end of the beginning."

Farrar's comments come as the World Health Organisation confirmed that the number of Ebola cases in Liberia has started to decline, with fewer burials and some empty hospital beds. But the WHO warned against any assumption that the outbreak there was ending.

"I'm terrified that the information will be misinterpreted," said Dr Bruce Aylward, assistant director-general in charge of the Ebola operational response. "This is like saying your pet tiger is under control. This is a very, very dangerous disease. Any transmission change could result in many, many more deaths."

"The danger is that instead of a trend that takes us down to zero, we end up with an oscillating pattern," he said. Getting to zero will involve grindingly hard work, identifying every Ebola case and tracing all the contacts. Without that effort, Ebola will remain at a lower but still dangerous level.
Balanced Risk Assessment 

Dr Jeremy Farrar does a good job of expressing cautious optimism,  yet mentioning the risks without the customary fearmongering and hype we have seen in other articles.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com