Central Perk

luni, 3 noiembrie 2014

Google's Physical Web and its Impact on Search

Posted: 02 Nov 2014 04:14 PM PST

In early October, Google announced a new project called " The Physical Web," which they explain like this:

The Physical Web is an approach to unleash the core superpower of the web: interaction on demand. People should be able to walk up to any smart device - a vending machine, a poster, a toy, a bus stop, a rental car - and not have to download an app first. Everything should be just a tap away.

At the moment this is an experimental project which is designed to promote establishing an open standard by which this mechanism could work. The two key elements of this initiative are:

URLs: The project proposes that all 'smart devices' should advertise a URL by which you can interact with that device. The device broadcasts its URL to anyone in the vicinity, who can detect it via their smartphone (with the eventual goal being this functionality is built into the smart phone operating systems rather than needing third-party apps).

Beacons: Not well known until Apple recently jumped on the bandwagon announcing iBeacons, beacon technology has been around for a couple of years now. Using a streamlined sibling of Bluetooth, called Bluetooth Low Energy (no pairing, range of ~70 metres / ~230 feet) it allows smartphones to detect the presence of nearby beacons and their approximate distance. Until now they've mostly been used to 'hyper-local' location based applications (check this blog post of mine for some thoughts on how this might impact SEO).

The project proposes adapting and augmenting the signal that Beacons send out to include a URL by which nearby users might interact with a smart device.

This post is about looking to the future at ways this could potentially impact search. It isn't likely that any serious impact will happen within the next 18 months, and it is hard to predict exactly how things will pan out, but this post is designed to prompt you to think about things proactively.

Usage examples

To help wrap your head around this, lets look at a few examples of possible uses:

Bus times: This is one of the examples Google gives, where you walk up to a bus stop and on detecting the smart device embedded into the stop your phone allows you to pull the latest bus times and travel info.

Item finder: Imagine when you go to the store looking for a specific item. You could pull out your phone and check stock of the item, as well as being directed to the specific part of the store where you can find it.

Check in: Combined with using URLs that are only accessible on local wifi / intranet, you could make a flexible and consistent check in mechanism for people in a variety of situations.

I'm sure there are many many more applications that are yet to be thought up. One thing to notice is that there is no reason you can't bookmark these advertised URLs and use them elsewhere, so you can't be sure that someone accessing the URL is actually by the device in question. You can get some of the way there by using URLs that are only accessible within a certain network, but that isn't going to be a general solution.

Also, note that these URLs don't need to be constrained to just website URLs; they could just as well be deep links into apps which you might have installed.

Parallels to the web and ranking

There are some obvious parallels to the web (which is likely why Google named it the way they did). There will be many smart devices which will map to URLs which anyone can go to. A corollary of this is that there will be similar issues to those we see in search engines today. Google already identified one such issue—ranking—on the page for the project:

At first, the nearby smart devices will be small, but if we're successful, there will be many to choose from and that raises an important UX issue. This is where ranking comes in. Today, we are perfectly happy typing "tennis" into a search engine and getting millions of results back, we trust that the first 10 are the best ones. The same applies here. The phone agent can sort by both signal strength as well as personal preference and history, among many other possible factors. Clearly there is lots of work to be done here.

So there is immediately a parallel between with Google's role on the world wide web and their potential role on this new physical web; there is a suggestion here that someone needs to rank beacons if they become so numerous that our phones or wearable devices are often picking up a variety of beacons.

Google proposes proximity as the primary measure of ranking, but the proximity range of BLE technology is very imprecise, so I imagine in dense urban areas that just using proximity won't be sufficient. Furthermore, given the beacons are cheap (in bulk, $5 per piece will get you standalone beacons with a year-long battery) I imagine there could be "smart device spam."

At that point, you need some sort of ranking mechanism and that will inevitably lead to people trying to optimise (be it manipulative or a more white-hat approach).

However, I don't think that will be the sole impact on search. There are several other possible outcomes.

Further impacts on the search industry

1. Locating out-of-range smart devices

Imagine that these smart devices became fairly widespread and were constantly advertising information to anyone nearby with a smart devices. I imagine, in a similar vein to schema.org actions which provide a standard way for websites to describe what they enable someone to do ("affordances," for the academics), we could establish similar semantic standards for smart devices enabling them to advertise what services/goods they provide.

Now imagine you are looking for a specific product or service, which you want as quickly as possible (e.g "I need to pick up a charger for my phone," or "I need to charge my phone on the move"). You could imagine that Google or some other search engine will have mapped these smart devices. If the above section was about "ranking," then this is about "indexing."

You could even imagine they could keep track of what is in stock at each of these places, enabling "environment-aware" searches. How might this work? Users in the vicinity whose devices have picked up the beacons, and read their (standardised) list of services could then record this into Google's index. It sounds like a strange paradigm, but it is exactly how Google's app indexing methodology works.

2. Added context

Context is becoming increasingly important for all searches that we do. Beyond your search phrase, Google look at what device you are on, where you are, what you have recently searched for, who you know, and quite a bit more. It makes our search experiences significantly better, and we should expect that they are going to continue to try to refine their understanding of our context ever more.

It is not hard to see that knowing what beacons people are near adds various facets of context. It can help refine location even further, giving indications to the environment you are in, what you are doing, and even what you might be looking for.

3. Passive searches

I've spoken a little bit about passive searches before; this is when Google runs searches for you based entirely off your context with no explicit search. Google Now is currently the embodiment of this technology, but I expect we'll see it become more and more

I believe could even see see a more explicit element of this become a reality, with the rise of conversational search. Conversational search is already at a point where a search queries can have persistent aspects ("How old is Tom Cruise?", then "How tall is he?" - the pronoun 'he' refers back to previous search). I expect we'll see this expand more into multi-stage searches ("Sushi restaurant within 10 minutes of here.", and then "Just those with 4 stars or more").

So, I could easily imagine that these elements combine with "environment-aware" searches (whether they are powered in the fashion I described above or not) to enable multi-stage searches that result in explicit passive searches. For example, "nearby shops with iPhone 6 cables in stock," to which Google fails to find a suitable result ("there are no suitable shops nearby") and you might then answer "let me know when there is."

Wrap up

It seems certain that embedded smart devices of some sort are coming, and this project from Google looks like a strong candidate to establish a standard. With the rise of smart devices, whichever form they end up taking and standard they end up using, it is certain this is going to impact the way people interact with their environments and use their smart phones and wearables.

It is hard to believe this won't also have a heavy impact upon marketing and business. What remains less clear is the scale of impact that this will have on SEO. Hopefully this post has got your brain going a bit so as and industry, we can start to prepare ourselves for the rise of smart devices.

I'd love to hear in the comments what other ideas people have and how you guys think this stuff might affect us.

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Seth's Blog : I am not a cobbler

I am not a cobbler

... but that doesn't mean I'm unable to choose well made and comfortable shoes.

You might not be a writer, but that doesn't mean you can't read.

You might not be a chef, but that doesn't mean you can't enjoy your dinner.

You might not be a scientist, but that doesn't mean you're unable to understand the scientific method and accept a well-discussed thesis.

You might not be a programmer, but that doesn't mean you can't use Excel or the internet.

You might not be the boss, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't care about what happens next.

And you might not be a political scientist, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't vote.

Vote tomorrow. Even if it's for a person who is sure to lose (especially if it's for a person who is sure to lose). If non-voters started voting for outliers who live their morals, our democracy would change completely in less than a decade.

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duminică, 2 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Bank of Japan Buying Over 100% of Japanese Bond Issuance; Steen Jakobsen Expects "FantasyLand Will Give Way to RealityLand"
Weaker China PMI, Especially New Orders and Exports
215,000 Doctors (1 in 4 Nationally, 70% in California) Refuse Obamacare Patients Over Payment Issues

Bank of Japan Buying Over 100% of Japanese Bond Issuance; Steen Jakobsen Expects "FantasyLand Will Give Way to RealityLand"

Posted: 02 Nov 2014 11:23 PM PST

Steen Jakobsen has some interesting comments on China and Japan in his latest email.

Steen discusses China's "official" PMI which is different than the Markit PMI on China that I covered earlier (see Weaker China PMI, Especially New Orders and Exports).

Emphasis in italics mine.

Steen Writes ...

Greetings,

China's official manufacturing PMI report just came out – and it's weaker than projected. The print was 50.8 vs. 51.2 expected. Orders backlog looks especially weak.

Fathom Consulting in London is calling for China's growth to slow to 5 percent over next year or so. Not sure I fully agree, but it's certainly possible.

China Momentum

The world is now reduced to:

Japan QE Infinite (Helicopter money next) – BOJ is buying more than 100% of issuance from Ministry of Finance now!
ECB can't move needle, but can talk...
Fed now voicing EUR concerns again (MNI news).... US house market cooling, shale gas industry bankrupt
German/EZ GUARANTEED recession (just updated SENTIX ECO vs. growth showing -2% by Q2 if nothing changes)
Disinflaton/deflation trends accelerating to downside w. commodities, energy (which is excellent lead for "anchored" inflation expectations..)

Yes, world should rejoice, take stocks & US dollar higher making sure EM engine is killed totally.... the "surprise" will be that China gets desperate before ECB does, as China clearly has voiced unhappiness with Japan's policy of devaluations.

World only has two engines of growth: EM and US... both are running out of fuel.....US corporates enjoyed 14 years straight years of weaker US dollar – in S&P 500 46% of sales is from overseas, profit has risen 3x faster than sales since 2009, 2y money up considerably in price.

End of financial engineering? Good news is – soon there is NO alternative but for companies to invest – but there are only two things which is certain:

Volatility will rise
Government bond prices will continue down (10 Yr US to hit 1.5% - and November is in our models indicating significant lower yield – so be forewarned)

Being the simple man I am - I have only one trading view: Lower yields (since Q4-2013), one economic view: Disinflaton/deflation will be the catalyst for asset sell off as Fantasy-land is replaced by Reality-land. FX view: US dollar will peak in Mid-November……one timing view: LOW in this economic/inflation/Nonsense is Q2-Q3 2015

Derivative views of that being: Sharp sell-off in UK housing (and Middle East, Norway, Australia – where lending to mortgages is close to 70% of lending in many banks), Low in inflation expectations by Q1 early (signal buy on Gold and metals)…….

Working on Outrageous Predictions 2015 – input very welcome.

Safe travels,

Steen

Three Key Steen Opinions

Japan QE Infinite (Helicopter money next) – BOJ is buying more than 100% of issuance from Ministry of Finance now!
Disinflaton/deflation will be the catalyst for asset sell off as Fantasy-land is replaced by Reality-land.
China to get desperate before ECB does, as China has voiced unhappiness with Japan's policy of devaluations.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Weaker China PMI, Especially New Orders and Exports

Posted: 02 Nov 2014 10:49 PM PST

The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI shows weaker expansions of output and new orders.

Key points

Output and new order growth weakens to five-month low
New export business expands at slowest pace since June
Input costs and output charges both fall markedly

Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI™ survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: "The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in the final reading for October, up from 50.2 in September, and unchanged from the flash reading released earlier. Compared to the flash readings, the new orders and new export orders sub - indices saw small downward revisions, but both remained in expansion territory"

Manufacturing PMI

Since mid-2011, Chinese manufacturing PMI has spent more time in negative (contracting) territory than expansion.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

215,000 Doctors (1 in 4 Nationally, 70% in California) Refuse Obamacare Patients Over Payment Issues

Posted: 02 Nov 2014 05:28 PM PST

It's not just patient sentiment against Obamacare that has soured lately. A stunning 215,000 doctors (and rising) refuse to accept Obamacare patients.

"Affordable" Care Act

Gary Franchi ended the above video with this thought: "It seems the biggest lie Obama told was calling his wide sweeping healthcare law - affordable".

Related Stories

CNN Money: Got Obamacare, can't find doctors
Miami Herald: Some South Florida docs decline to accept Obamacare
Forbes: When Will The Government Start Forcing Doctors To See Obamacare Patients?
Daily Kos: Doctor Refuses Patient Because She Has Obamacare
Godfather Politics: Doctors Refusing Obamacare Patients

Good News - Bad News

Good News: You're covered
Bad News: Your choice in doctors is shrinking fast

What was that Obama said?
Wasn't it something like ... If you have a plan you can keep it, and you can keep your doctor too.

Addendum

Some people have questioned the stats. I did so too.

But what do the stats mean? And how many people are on "Obamacare" vs. those covered in grandfathered plans and traditional employer plans?

On September 18, Politico reported 7.3 Million in Obamacare plans, Beats CBO Forecast.

The Population of the US is 316.1 million as of 2013. Of course, those enrolled may have multiple family members. So, double the 7.3 million to get 14.6 million.

Even so, we are talking about less than 5% of the population. Double that to 10% if you like. Is it now so inconceivable a high percentage of doctors would refuse to deal with Obamacare plans?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : But not people like you

But not people like you

We're hiring, but not people like you.

I'm looking for a doctor, but of course, not someone like you.

We're putting together a study group, but we won't be able to include people like you.

Redlining is an efficient short-term selection strategy. At least that's what we tell ourselves. So the bank won't loan to people in that neighborhood or people with this cultural background, because, hey, we can't loan to everyone and it's easier to just draw a red line around the places not worth our time...

The challenge with redlining, beyond the fact that it's morally repugnant, is that it doesn't work. There's a difference between "people like you" and "you." You, the human being, the person with a track record and a great attitude and a skillset deserve consideration for those things, for your psychographics, not your demographics.

When there's not so much data, we often resort to crude measures of where you live or what you look like or what your name is to decide how to judge. But the same transparency that the net is giving to marketers of all sorts means that the banks and the universities and the hiring managers ought to be able to get beyond the, "like you" bias and head straight for "you."

Because 'you' is undervalued and undernoticed.

When we say, "I don't work with people like you, I won't consider supporting someone like you, I can't invest in someone like you," we've just eliminated value, wasted an opportunity and stripped away not just someone else's dignity, but our own.

What have you done? What do you know? Where are you going? Those are a great place to start, to choose people because of what they've chosen, not where they started. Not because this will always tell us what someone is capable of (too many people don't have the head start they deserve) but because it is demonstrably more useful than the crude, expensive, fear-based shortcuts we're using far too often.

In a society where it's easier than ever to see "you," we can't help but benefit when we become anti-racist, pro-feminist, in favor of equal opportunity and focused (even obsessed) on maximizing the opportunity everyone gets, early and often.

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sâmbătă, 1 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Christmas Shopping Season Starts Today: Walmart Leads the Way with Price Cuts on 20,000 Items for the Holiday Season

Posted: 01 Nov 2014 11:58 AM PDT

In the past few years the Christmas shopping season moved from the "Black Friday" the day after Thanksgiving, to earlier and earlier starts on Thanksgiving, then to the day before Thanksgiving.

Today Walmart leapfrogged the pack with 20,000 items on sale for the holiday season.

When Halloween ends on Friday, Walmart will be switching over its stores to greet the holiday season.

On Saturday, the retailer will offer more than 20,000 "rollbacks" or sale prices on items including groceries and popular brands such as Disney "Frozen," Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Samsung, and Dell.

Then, on Monday, Walmart will relaunch its 24-hour holiday cyber savings event, in which customers can take advantage of free shipping on millions of items from Walmart.com. Orders must exceed $50 for free shipping. Walmart said it has expanded its online offerings to include 7 million items – one million more than last holiday season.

At the current rate of accelerated progression, the Christmas shopping season will soon move to October, then September. Christmas year round, anyone?

Commenting on the news, Janet Yellen said "Damn Walmart to hell! They should be raising prices not lowering them".

Actually, I made that up, but it's likely what's going on in her mind. Indeed, it's precisely the way Keynesian and Monetarist clowns think.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Chris Martenson and Mish Audio on Bank of Japan's Surprise Move on Friday

Posted: 01 Nov 2014 12:14 AM PDT

Every other Wednesday or so, Chris Martenson and I get together for a podcast. Sometimes one of us or the other is out of town, and sometimes Chris has other guest speakers.

Because of scheduling difficulties, Chris and I got together today instead of Wednesday. I asked Chris to make today's podcast generally available.

For our take of Friday's BoJ surprise move, please play the audio on Chris' Peak Prosperity site: Off the Cuff: Japanese Central Bank Throws Granny Under the Bus.

The audio is about 25 minutes long. The podcasts are not scripted. Chris and I just talk "off the cuff" on events of the day or the week.

In case you missed my Friday commentary, please see Nikkei Futures Up Limit, Yen Collapses, Dollar Up, Gold Down as BoJ Pledges "Unwavering Determination" to Get 2% Inflation

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Organizing for growth

Organizing for growth

Maybe it’s (finally) working. Maybe demand is up, opportunities keep presenting themselves and people want to work with you.

So why are you so stressed out? It might be because different organizational choices lead to different paths for growth.

Consider a house painter. His business has always been okay, but thanks to his skill and a local building boom, jobs keep showing up.

The traditional method: He lays out the money for paint, he does the work, he sends a bill, and soon, he gets paid.

The good news is that as a freelancer, he's super flexible and can withstand tough times. But in this environment, all sorts of trouble hits. First, there's a cash flow issue. New jobs mean more need for paint and materials, but he has to lay out his own cash to pay for it. Second, new jobs mean more work, but he's the best (and the cheapest) employee, so he ends up working way more hours. No cash, no time, no joy.

An alternative is for the painter to create a scalable system. He could require a down payment on every job, an amount calculated to cover all of his cash costs. Second, he could spend the time to build a pool of journeyman painters, a Rolodex of talent ready when he needs it. In this scenario, the painter becomes a foreman, not a painter any longer.

Or, consider one step beyond that, in which the painter hires several foremen, each responsible for his own Rolodex. Now, the painter is a CEO, a salesperson, the architect of a brand, an organization and its growth. But that still involves a lot of risk as he scales.

The last structure I'll point out is the idea that the painter could refine his system and instead of dealing with homeowners, he could find partners, and license them the system. The system might include his brand name, his sales approach, a computerized, data-driven direct marketing program and most of all, a rule book that lets people who don't have his iniative enter this business. By charging every partner who joins an upfront fee (this is how franchises work) as well as a share of their income, he can grow from state to state, building a nationwide painting behemoth.

There's no right answer. Not everyone should run a national painting franchise business. The key insight is to feel the pain that an organizational choice leads to and fix that instead of merely chasing demand and embracing each opportunity (no matter how juicy) as it comes along.

The key things to focus on, I think, are:

Cash flow

Demand enhancement

Increasing the ability to keep your promises by investing in a pipeline of talent

And most of all, reminding yourself why you're doing this in the first place.

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vineri, 31 octombrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Could Non-Citizens Determine the Outcome of the Midterm Elections?

Posted: 31 Oct 2014 01:30 PM PDT

Here's the question of the day: Could Non-Citizens Determine the Outcome of the Midterm Elections?

Some elections, especially for Senate are so close, the unfortunate answer is "yes" as the following video insight from Insight from the Libre Institute explains.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Nikkei Futures Up Limit, Yen Collapses, Dollar Up, Gold Down as BoJ Pledges "Unwavering Determination" to Get 2% Inflation

Posted: 31 Oct 2014 10:38 AM PDT

"Whatever it Takes" Japanese Style

It's a world truly gone mad.

In a surprise move today, the Bank of Japan announced further quantitative easing, dominated by long-term Japanese government bonds. The BoJ also announced it and would triple annual purchases of exchange traded funds and property investment trusts.

BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda defied objections from four fellow board members, arguing that a tax-hit economy and a lower oil price have led to "a critical moment" in the country's bid to escape from deflation.

The Financial Times quotes Kuroda as follows: The extra action "shows our unwavering determination to end deflation. There was a risk that despite having made steady progress, we could face a delay in eradicating the public's deflation mindset. This is a pretty drastic step, so I think there will be a significant effect [on the economy]."

Stunning Market Reaction

Nikkei futures up lock limit (1160 points)
S&P 500 up 1.0% (new all-time high)
Yen plunges 2.5%
Dollar rises 0.9%
Gold sinks 2.75%
Oil down 1.1%

Nikkei Futures

S&P 500 Futures

Yen Futures

US Dollar Futures

Gold Futures

Oil Futures

One of my top two trade ideas worked today: Long the Nikkei hedged with a short-yen position. Gold certainly didn't. I still have faith central bank madness will eventually light a fire on my second key idea.

Buyer of Only Resort

Not only is Japan's population in decline, the remaining population is aging. Somehow, Japan believes its economy ought to grow anyway. In addition, Japan wants 2% inflation even though that is the last thing Japanese savers need.

Given that Japanese pension funds are now net sellers of Japanese government bonds, and given Japan's pledge to destroy the Yen to fight deflation, the buyer of only resort of Japan's government bonds is the Bank of Japan.

Currency Crisis Awaits

Japan's government debt is over 250% of GDP. Japan's debt is so high that an interest rate of somewhere between 2 and 3 percent will consume 100% of tax revenue.

Amusingly, the central bank wants 2% inflation and 0% bond rates. How's that going to work?

The answer is "It's not".

Today's message is clearly "get the hell out of the yen".

Somewhere down the line, a global currency crisis awaits. I am willing to hold gold indefinitely until that happens.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

luni, 3 noiembrie 2014

Google's Physical Web and its Impact on Search