marți, 25 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Merkel Will Blink First, Not Putin

Posted: 25 Nov 2014 03:00 PM PST

The cold war took another twist last week when a Senior German Politician Endorsed Russian Takeover of Crimea.
Former state premier Matthias Platzeck, chairman of the German-Russian Forum business lobby and erstwhile Social Democrat (SPD) chief, is the first high-ranking German to say the West should endorse the annexation as a way to help resolve the Ukraine crisis.

Platzeck, 60, told the Passauer Neue Presse newspaper: "A wise man changes his mind - a fool never will... The annexation of Crimea must be retroactively arranged under international law so that it's acceptable for everyone."

Platzeck, Brandenburg's popular state premier from 2002 to 2013, struck a nerve in eastern Germany where there is far less support for sanctions against Russia than in the West.

"We have to find a resolution so that Putin won't walk off the field as the loser," said Platzeck, whose career was nurtured by ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder - a friend of Putin. He said areas held by separatists will never be part of Ukraine.
Political Infighting

Platzeck's statement shocked a lot of people including German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier who stated Germany will Never Accept Crimea Annexation.

"We don't accept what has happened and we don't accept Europe's borders being changed again 70 years after the war," said Steinmeier.

Cracks Form

Der Spiegel reports Cracks Form in Berlin Over Russia Stance.
A political solution is more distant than ever in the Russia conflict, with the German government and EU having exhausted their diplomatic options. A rift may now be growing between Chancellor Merkel and her foreign minister over Berlin's tough stance against Moscow.
Dead End for Merkel

Today, Reuters reports Merkel Hits Diplomatic Dead-End With Putin.
Since February, when the pro-Russian president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, fled Kiev amid violent protests on the Maidan square, Germany has taken the lead in trying to convince Putin to engage with the West.

Merkel has spoken to him by phone three dozen times. Her Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a member of the Social Democrats (SPD), traditionally a Russia-friendly party, has invested hundreds of hours trying to secure a negotiated solution to the conflict.

Now, German officials say, they have run out of ideas about how they might sway the Russian leader. The channels of communication with Putin will remain open, but Berlin is girding for a long standoff, akin to a second Cold War.
Explaining the Dead-End

Perhaps things are at a dead end precisely because of statements like "Germany will Never Accept Crimea Annexation" by Foreign Minister Steinmeier.

Does talking make any sense if that is the position of Germany?

Putin Peels Away at Sanction Support
Matthias Platzeck, a former leader of the SPD, broke ranks earlier this month and urged Germany to recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea.

This week, Russian Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukaev is being hosted by Russia-friendly businessmen in Stuttgart, the heart of German industry.

Russia also appears to be extending a hand to right-wing opposition parties in Europe. France's National Front confirmed at the weekend that it had secured a 9 million euro loan from a Moscow-based bank.

The first set of EU sanctions is due to expire in March and will need to be renewed. German officials say Italy, Hungary and Slovakia will be the most difficult countries to keep on board.

"Putin will be trying to peel countries away in the run-up to March," said one. Another described the battle to keep the EU united on Russia as a "Herculean task".
Slow Squeeze
Against the backdrop of this fragile EU consensus, ratcheting up economic sanctions further is seen as a "no go" in Berlin for now.

That would change, German officials say, if Russian-backed separatists carved out a corridor of control from eastern Ukraine to Crimea by taking the strategic city of Mariupol.

For Merkel however, the showdown seems to be evolving from a fast-moving tit-for-tat affair into a longer game in which the West slowly squeezes Russia's struggling economy in the hope that Putin eventually blinks.
Merkel Will Blink First

With support for sanctions eroding in several countries, with political infighting in Germany, and with German sentiment shifting more pro-Russia, the odds are that Merkel changes her tune first.

After all, she is the political chameleon, not Putin.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Rents Heading Up? Will the CPI Follow?

Posted: 25 Nov 2014 12:49 PM PST

Rents are up 6.5% in San Francisco, and 4.5% in numerous other cities. Is this a leading indicator for a stronger inflation as measured by the CPI?

Please consider the Variant Perception article Higher Rents in the US are a Strong Support for CPI.
Despite the subdued nature of US CPI, some large components are turning up.  Owners' equivalent rent and rent of primary residence, which together account almost of a third of the CPI basket, are turning up strongly. A low vacancy rate and a relatively resilient US economy is helping to drive rents higher, with San Francisco seeing the greatest rent increases, at 6.4% over the last year, and with many other cities, such as Nashville, Seattle, Denver and Houston, all seeing increases of over 4.5%

Furthermore, our leading indicator for US Shelter CPI, which includes apartment vacancy rates and the growth in the working-age population among its inputs, shows that the trend should continue. Higher rents are a strong support for headline CPI in the US.
Owners' Equivalent Rent



Owners Equivalent Rent vs. CPI Shifted 18 Months




The red line in the above chart is not the CPI, but rather a "leading indicator for US Shelter CPI, which includes apartment vacancy rates"

I took the above chart, clipped out the red CPI line, made a layer out of it in Photoshop, and then shifted the line back 18 months with reduced opacity so you can see both lines. Here is my result.

Owners Equivalent Rent vs. CPI Shifted 18 Months and Not Shifted




Straight up (no shift) caught most of the action correctly, except for years 2005-2006, right at the peak of the housing bubble. Also recall the energy spike in 2007.

Perhaps a shift forward some smaller number of months other than 18 would fit better. Let's dive into the CPI data to see what if anything a bump in OER might mean.

CPI Housing Component

Here's the Housing Component of the CPI straight from the October 2014 BLS CPI Report.

 

The last column above is the year-over-year increase in various housing components. Numbers are national. On average, if the largest cities are up 4.5% or so (excluding San Francisco), the national average of 2.7% for OER and 3.3% for rent seems reasonable enough.

CPI-U Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is up 1.7% year-over-year even though housing is up 2.7%. So other things had to go down. Price for energy did just that.

Nonetheless, CPI will tend to move with OER simply because OER is the single largest component.

If rents continue to rise, CPI will likely go along for the ride, but I fail to see any leading direction in the OER itself (first chart) unless one can accurately project "planned rent hikes".

With that thought in mind, let's return once again to the claim "Our leading indicator for US Shelter CPI, which includes apartment vacancy rates and the growth in the working-age population among its inputs, shows that the trend should continue."

If vacancy rates are a leading indicator of planned rents hikes (a reasonable presumption), then the statement made by Variant Perception is likely an accurate one.

Yet, the overall impact on the CPI will at best be subdued, especially if wages do not follow. If more money goes for rent and Obamacare, less money will go elsewhere.

Consumers feeling the squeeze? You bet!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Amazing Moments From History Captured In Photographs

Posted: 25 Nov 2014 12:25 PM PST

Thanks to the power of photographs you can now relive some of the most important moments from human history.
























 

This Teacher Taught His Class A Very Valuable Lesson

Posted: 25 Nov 2014 11:55 AM PST

























How To Select The Perfect Clients

How To Select The Perfect Clients


How To Select The Perfect Clients

Posted: 24 Nov 2014 04:15 PM PST

Posted by Bill.Sebald

partnership

I truly believe in the power of partnerships. There have been some incredible partnerships that changed the fabric of our culture. Larry Page and Sergey Brin. William Procter and James Gamble. The Olson Twins.

Good partnerships provide support, motivation, and complementary skills, often allowing you to overcome hurdles faster and create some truly marvelous things. In consulting or any agency work, the concept of "partnership" should be the backbone of your relationship. Like a puzzle piece, sometimes the fit is initially difficult to find – if available at all. The truth is, you're only secure if your clients are walking in the same direction as the flow of your service. If they're walking against the current, you have what I believe to be the most detrimental predicament a service provider can have – a rift. That's a truly offensive four-letter word.

What kind of rift are we talking about? Let's do a little calculating.

First think about what you or your agency is really good at. Think about the components you have the most success with; this may actually be different than where you're most experienced. Think about what you should be selling versus not (even if those items are currently on your menu – let's be candid here, a lot of us casually promote services we believe we should be selling even though it's not a fully baked product or core competency). Think about the amount of time you really spent challenging a given service to make sure it's truly impactful to a client versus your own bottom line.

Next, think about your past client debacles (if you haven't stopped to perform a postmortem, you should). Chances are these led to events that cost you a lot of time, pain, and possibly money. They are the memories that make you shudder. Those are the days that made you dust off your resume and think about a career change.  

Finally, how many of these past clients should have never been signed in the first place? How many simply weren't a fit from the start? How many simply never had a shot at being successful with you – and vice-versa? This computation really needs serious consideration. Have you wasted everyone's time?

There can be a costly fallout. I've seen talented team members quit over clients that simply could not be managed. I've seen my colleagues go so far as to cry or start seeking therapy (in part) because of overwhelming clients who were not getting what they expected and a parent company who wasn't providing any relief. Sometimes these clients were bound to an annual contract which only made them more desperate and angry. Rifts like this can kill your business.

This should never happen.

Client/agency relationships are marriages, but marriages start with dating

I really like this 2011 post from A List Apart called Marry Your Clients. A few years old, but nothing has changed. However, my post is going to talk about the courting part before the honeymoon.

My post also assumes you make more money on longer consulting relationships. If you've somehow built your model through routinely hunting new business with the expectation you're going to get fired, then that's a different story. For most of us however, on-boarding a client is a lot of work, both in terms of hours (which is money) and brainpower. If you "hit it off" with your client, you begin to know their business more intimately, as well as their goals and KPIs. The strategies get easier to build; they also tend to be more successful as you become aware of what their tastes and limitations are. You find you have things in common (perhaps you both enjoy long walks to the bank). You often become true partners with your clients, who in turn promote your ideas to their bosses. These are your most profitable engagements, as well as your most rewarding. They tend to last years, sometimes following your point-of-contact to their next jobs as well.

But you don't get this way simply because both parties signed a legally-bounding document.

The truth is not all parties can work together. A lot of client/agency relationships end in divorce. Like in romance, sometimes you just aren't compatible.

A different kind of online dating

After my first marriage went kaput, I'll admit I went to Match.com. For those who never tried online dating, it's really an exercise in personal marketing. You upload your most attractive pictures. You sell yourself above everyone else. You send communications back and forth to the interested parties where you work to craft the "perfect" response; as well as ask qualifying questions. I found it works pretty well – the online process saved me from potentially bad dates. Don't get me wrong, I still have some awkward online dating stories…

Photo from Chuck Woolery's Twitter profile

With consulting, if we're supposed to ultimately marry our clients, we should obviously be allowed to see if there's a love connection. We should all be our own Chuck Woolery. I tend to think this stage is crucial, but often rushed by agencies or managed by a department outside of your own.

Some agencies seem to have a "no dating" policy. For some, it's not uncommon to come in to work and have an email from a higher-up with the subject, "congratulations – you're now married to a new client!" Whether it's a client development department, or an add-on from an existing client, your marketing department is suddenly forced into an arranged marriage where you can only hope to live up to their expectations.

This is a recipe for disaster. I don't like to run a business on luck and risk, so clearly this makes no sense to me.

But I've been there. I once worked for an agency that handed me a signed contract for a major underwear brand – but I didn't even know we were even speaking to them. Before I had a chance to get the details, the VP of digital marketing called me. I did my best to understand what they were promised in terms of SEO goals without admitting I really had no clue about their business. The promises were unrealistic, but being somewhat timid and naïve back in the day, I went with it. Truth is, their expectations did not fit into our model, philosophies, or workflow. Ultimately I failed to deliver to their expectations. The contract ended early and I vowed to never let that happen again. Not just for the stress and anxiety it brought upon my team and me, but for the blatant neglect to the client as well.

With this being something I never forgot, I would occasionally bring this story up with others I met at networking events or conventions. I quickly learned this is far from an isolated incident occurring only to me. This is how some agencies build their business development departments.

Once again, this should never happen.

How to qualify a client

Let's assume by now I have successfully inspired a few things:

  1. A client/agency relationship should truly be a partnership akin to a good marriage.
  2. A client should never be thrown into a model that doesn't make sense for their business (i.e., your style of SEO services), and process should be in place for putting all the parties in the same room before a deal is signed.

    Now we're up to number 3:
  3. Not all relationships work, so all parties should try to truly connect before there is a proposal. Don't rush the signature!

Here are some of the things we do at Greenlane to really qualify a client. Before I continue, though, I'm proud to brag a little. With these practices in place, our close rate – that is, the companies we really want to work with – is 90% in our favor. Our retainment is also very high. Once we started being prudent with our intake, we've only lost a few companies due to funding issues or a change in their business model – not out of performance. I should also add that these tips work with all sizes of clients. While some of our 20+ clients are smaller businesses, we also have household brands and public companies, all of which could attest to going through this process with us.

It's all in the details

Your website is your Match.com profile. Your website is your personality. If you're vague or promotional or full of hype, only to get someone on the phone to which your "car salesman" gear kicks in, I don't think you're using the website to the best of its ability. People want to use the website to learn more about you before the reach out.

Our "about us" page is our third most visited page next to the homepage and pricing (outside of the blog). You can see an example from a  Hotjar heatmap:

The truth is, I'm always tweaking (and A/B testing) our message on the about us page. This page is currently part of a funnel that we careful put together. The "about us" page is a quick but powerful overview putting our team front and center and highlighting our experience (including some past clients).

I believe the website's more than a brochure. It's a communication device. Don't hide or muddle who you are. When I get a prospect email through our form, I always lead them to our "Are We The Right Fit" page. That's right – I actually ask them to consider choosing wisely. Now at first glance, this might go against a conversion funnel that heats up the prospect and only encourages momentum, but this page has really been a strong asset. It's crafted to transparently present our differentiators, values, and even our pricing. It's also crafted to discourage those who aren't a good fit. You can find this page here. Even our URL provides the "Are We The Right Fit" question.

We want prospects to make a good decision. We care so much about companies doing great that we'd rather you find someone else if our model isn't perfect. Sure, sometimes after pointing someone to that link, they never return. That's OK. Just like a dating profile, this page is designed to target a certain kind of interest. Time is a commodity in agency life – no sense in wasting it on a conversation that isn't qualified. When we do catch a prospect after reviewing the page and hear, "we went with another firm who better suits our needs," it actually doesn't feel like a loss at all.

Everyone who comes back goes into our pipeline. At this stage they all get followed up on with a phone call. If they aren't a good fit from the get go we actually try to introduce them to other SEO companies or consultants who would be a better fit for them. But 9 times out of 10, it's an amazing conversation.

Never drop the transparency

There are a few things I try to tell all the prospects I ultimately speak with. One, I openly admit I'm not a salesman. I couldn't sell ice water to people in hell. But I'm good at being really candid about our strengths and experiences.

Now this one tends to surprise some, especially in the larger agency setting. We admit that we are really choosy about the clients we take on. For our model, we need clients who are flexible, fast moving, interested in brand building, and interested in long-term relationships. We want clients who think in terms of strategy and will let us work with their existing marketing team and vendors. We audit them for their understanding of SEO services and tell them how we're either alike or different.

I don't think a prospect call goes by without me saying, "while you're checking us out to see if we're a good fit, we're doing the same for you." Then, if the call goes great, I let them know we'd like a follow up call to continue (a second date if you will). This follow up call has been where the real decision gets made.

Ask the right questions

I've vetted the opportunity, now my partner – who naturally has a different way of approaching opportunities and relationships – asks a different set of questions. This adds a whole different dimension and works to catch the questions I may not have asked. We've had companies ready to sign on the first call, to which I've had to divert any signatures until the next conversation. This too may seem counter-intuitive to traditional business development, but we find it extremely valuable. It's true that we could have more clients in our current book of business, but I can proudly state that every current client is exactly who we want to be with; this is very much because of everything you've read so far.

On each call we have a list of qualifying questions that we ask. Most are "must answer" questions, while others can roll into a needs analysis questionnaire that we give to each signed client. The purpose of the needs analysis is to get more granular into business items (such as seasonal trends, industry intelligence, etc.) for the intention of developing strategies. With so much to ask, it's important to be respectful of the prospects' time. At this point they've usually already indicated they've read our website, can afford our prices, and feel like we're a good fit.

Many times prospects start with their introduction and answer some of our questions. While they speak, I intently listen and take many notes.

These are 13 questions from my list that I always make sure get answered on a call, with some rationale:

Questions for the prospect:

1. Can you describe your business model and products/services?

  1. What do you sell?
  2. B2B or B2C
  3. Retail or lead generation?

Rationale : sometimes when reviewing the website it's not immediately clear what kind of business they're in. Perhaps the site just does a bad job, or sometimes their real money making services are deeper in the site and easily missed by a fast scan. One of our clients works with the government and seems to have an obvious model, but the real profit is from a by-product, something we would have never picked up on during our initial review of the website. It's important to find out exactly what the company does. Is it interesting? Can you stay engaged? Is it a sound model that you believe in? Is it a space you have experience in?

2. What has been your experience with [YOUR SERVICE] in the past?

Rationale: Many times, especially if your model is different, a prospect may have a preconceived notion of what you actually do. Let's take SEO as an example – there are several different styles of SEO services. If they had a link building company in the past, and you're a more holistic SEO consulting practice, their point of reference may only be with what they've experienced. They may even have a bad taste in their mouth from a previous engagement, which gives you a chance to air it out and see how you compare. This is also a chance to know if you're potentially playing with a penalized site.

3. What are your [PPC/SEO/etc.] goals?

Rationale: Do they have realistic goals, or lofty, impossible goals? Be candid – tell them if you don't think you can reach the goals on the budget they have, or if you think they should choose other goals. Don't align yourself with goals you can't hit. This is where many conversations could end.

4. What's your mission or positioning statement?

Rationale: If you're going to do more than just pump up their rankings, you probably want to know the full story. This should provide a glimpse into other marketing the prospect is executing.

5. How do you stand out?

Rationale: Sometimes this is answered with the question above. If not, really dig up the differentiators. Those are typically the key items to build campaigns on.  Whether they are trying to create a new market segment or have a redundant offering, this can help you set timeline and success expectations.

6. Are you comfortable with an agency that may challenge your plans and ideas?

Rationale: This is one of my favorite questions. There are many who hire an agency and expect "yes-men." Personally I believe an agency or consultant should be partners; that is, not afraid to fight for what they know is right for the benefit of the client. You shouldn't be afraid of injury:

 

7. Who are your competitors?

Rationale: Not only do you want this for competitive benchmarking, but this can often help you understand more about the prospect. Not to mention, how big a hill you might have to climb to start competing on head terms.

8. What is your business reach? (local, national, international)?

Rationale: An international client is going to need more work than a domestic client. A local client is going to need an expertise in local search. Knowing the scope of the company can help you align your skills with their targets.

9. What CMS are you on?

Rationale:  This is a big one. It tells you how much flexibility you will have. Wordpress?  Great – you'll probably have a lot of access to files and templates.  A proprietary CMS or enterprise solution?  Uh-oh.  That probably means tickets and project queues. Are you OK with that?

10. What does your internal team look like?

Rationale: Another important question. Who will you be working with?  What skill sets?  Will you be able to sit at the table with other vendors too?  If you're being hired to fill in the gaps, make sure you have the skills to do so. I ask about copywriters, developers, designers, and link builders at a minimum.

11. What do you use for analytics?

Rationale: A tool like Wappalyzer can probably tell you, but sometimes bigger companies have their own custom analytics through their host. Sometimes it's bigger than Google Analytics, like Omniture. Will you be allowed to have direct access to it?  You'd be surprised how often we hear no.

12. How big is your site?  Do you have other properties?

Rationale: It's surprising how often a prospect forgets to mention those 30+ subdomains and microsites. If the prospect envisions it as part of the deal, you should at least be aware of how far the core website extends.

13. What is your budget, preferred start time, and end date?

Rationale: The biggest question of all. Do they even meet your fee requirements? Are you staffed and ready to take on the work? Sure, talking money can be tough, but if you post your rates firm, the prospect is generally more open to talk budget. They don't feel like a negotiation is going to happen.

Conclusion

While these are the core questions we use, I'm sure the list will eventually grow. I don't think you should copy our list, or the order.  You should ultimately create your own. Every agency or consultant has different requirements, and interviewing your prospect is as important as allowing them to interview you. But remember, you don't have to have all the business.  Just the right kind of business.  You will grow organically from your positive experiences.  We all hear about "those other agencies" and how they consistently fail to meet client expectations. Next to "do great work," this is one powerful way to keep off that list.  


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