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joi, 18 decembrie 2014
AdSense Insider December 2014
How to Repurpose the Best Content Formats of 2014
How to Repurpose the Best Content Formats of 2014 |
| How to Repurpose the Best Content Formats of 2014 Posted: 17 Dec 2014 04:15 PM PST Posted by Amanda_Gallucci The past year, major publishers have run the full gamut from listicles with clickbait headlines to well-researched, in-depth storytelling. Each format worked for different audiences and contexts, and as publishers repeatedly tested new types of content, they found several winning combinations. By taking a look at the strategy behind why some of the most popular content styles of 2014 performed so well, brands can learn to repurpose and utilize these formats for their own content. The local snapshotWhether taking the form of a list, interactive map, or article, content that focused in on a certain segment of the population, or compares and contrasts diverse segments, made up some of the most widely shared and discussed content. ExampleThe New York Times created a map that represented America's palate by showing the most searched for Thanksgiving recipe in every state: Thanksgiving Recipes Googled in Every State. Why it worksThe more closely content is personally tied to the reader, the more they are invested in it, so content that is focused on a particular area or demographic has a high appeal to the people in that group. People feel one of two ways about this type of content: either they find it to be a spot-on representation of their community, or they starkly disagree with how they were perceived. In both cases, the opinion is strong and people want to share with others about either the content's accuracy or their reasons why the author didn't get it right. Moreover, content that pits different places or groups against each other further increases a person's desire to defend their loyalty to their group, as well as strikes up curiosity and conversations when people are genuinely surprised to find out how different they are from others. How to spin itDig into your sales data and see if you can find any interesting trends as far as different groups of people favoring different products or services. You can also use social engagement tools and social listening to find interesting patterns in online behavior. Depending on the type of insights you discover, you can decide if a map or another type of graphic makes the most sense to present your findings. ObjectionsInvesting a great deal of resources into producing a piece of content aimed at only one group can seem to be less of an opportunity than something all encompassing, however sometimes when you try to cover your whole audience at once, you end up reaching no one on a deep enough level. Try out both hyperlocal content and content that compares different local segments to see which performs best. The success formulaWhether giving tips from specific celebrities or business leaders, or rounding up the commonalities between "every great leader" or "all accomplished entrepreneurs," content that claimed to give the secret steps to success was quite popular. Just a step up from a listicle, these articles paired first-person accounts and statistics with helpful tips. ExampleForbes turned research about how people deal with stress into tips on how to avoid it: How Successful People Squash Stress. Why it worksPeople want to be successful and turn to informational and self-help content in order to better themselves. Pairing tips with people's real stories or data largely increases the credibility of the advice, giving the readers more reason to believe that the content can help them achieve their own success. How to spin itMake the success formula specific to your niche. Go beyond interviewing thought leaders about their backgrounds and general advice. Q&As with bright individuals don't always produce high traffic and social shares because while the person answering questions is successful, the questions and answers don't produce any concrete takeaways from which others can learn. Compile actual schedules and to-do lists that show how effective workers spend their time, describe what tools a professional in your space uses to accomplish certain tasks, or explain the story behind the numbers that show a group or company's growth. Peel away any generic and clichéd recommendations to reveal the details that make up a repeatable method other people in the field can use. ObjectionsSometimes the "steps" in posts like these are overly simplistic and not completely fleshed out. For instance, "start by setting goals," on its own has very little value and it's something that people have heard before. Giving more specific examples about the types of goals to set, tips and tricks of how to set obtainable goals or keep track of goals, or a behind-the-scenes look at a successful individual or brand's goals with the details of how they were achieved can turn advice into useful content. The nonfiction storyWhile micro content may have excelled in 2014, there were also many notable long-form pieces of strong journalism. Publishers sought to put names and faces to cold facts about poverty, crime, and other important issues that are sometimes glazed over as mere statistics. The combination of detailed accounts and telling photography or data visualizations alongside careful research brought previously hidden subjects to light. ExampleNewsweek told the story of what really happens in one of the most dangerous cities of America in Murder Town USA (aka Wilmington, Delaware). Why it worksPowerful storytelling will always be compelling. Humanizing facts makes people take interest because it allows them to relate and moves them to feel a certain way. How to spin itStart by asking questions about data patterns and doing research to see if you can determine the source of unique trends. This doesn't have to involve extensive reporting; one interview with a person who has a unique point of view can be all you need to tell a remarkable story. ObjectionsIn-depth stories are only worth the reader's time investment if the author has something interesting to share, so this format is not easy to produce consistently in every subject. It can be a risk to take the time needed to produce something on such a grand scale only for it to not to gain traction. A big piece of content like this should not be attempted unless the idea is vetted among people in your circle of influence and there is a large enough promotional strategy around it to help it take off. The crowdsourced list ExampleBuzzFeed turned the Ask Reddit question "What is the most George Constanza-esque reason you broke up with someone?" into this post: The 32 Most Ridiculous Reasons Real Couples Have Broken Up. Why it worksLike any listicle, this content is bite-sized, organized, and easy to digest. It also saves people time from reading through mediocre stories if they were to read through the entire forum thread themselves, or helps them discover this type of content in the first place if they aren't a regular Redditor or forum user. If the editor accurately picks the most interesting posts to include, the content is quite informative and/or entertaining, making it highly shareable. How to spin itCreate your own version of the crowdsourced listicle by collecting user generated questions, testimonials, or relevant experiential stories. These tidbits can be used for a blog post or combined with visuals to make an interesting SlideShare. Whether openly asking questions on social media to increase engagement and start conversations, or sending out a survey, there are plenty of ways to get shareable information from your audience. ObjectionsWhile creating a list of other people's responses might appear lazy, having an eye for what people will enjoy reading and taking the time to sift through endless threads and posts is still work. No, not every brand should be emulating the BuzzFeed and Huffington Post "quick content" listicle style, however disregarding it as low quality can also be a mistake. A look at any of BuzzFeed's sponsored content case studies shows that the publisher can create tremendous brand lift, especially in the millennial segment. Quality should be viewed in the eyes of the reader, and so when listicles like these are getting many thousands of views and social shares, they should be seen as inherently valuable to at least a certain group of people. Content before formatWhile format is important in each of the above cases, none of these pieces would have succeeded had they not been backed with substance. Each example includes elements that make up strong content:
As you begin to slate content for 2015, keep an open mind for trying out new formats and experimenting with these styles that have proved effective. With the right combination of short and long-form content, you can reach all parts of your audience while balancing your resources. Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!       |
| Location is Everything: Local Rankings in Moz Analytics Posted: 17 Dec 2014 03:01 AM PST Posted by MatthewBrown Today we are thrilled to launch local rankings as a feature in Moz Analytics, which gives our customers the ability to assign geo-locations to their tracked keywords. If you're a Moz Analytics customer and are ready to jump right in, here's where you an find the new feature within the application: Not a Moz Analytics customer? You can take the new features for a free spin... One of the biggest SEO developments of the last several years is how frequently Google is returning localized organics across a rapidly increasing number of search queries. It's not just happening for "best pizza in Portland" (the answer to that is Apizza Scholls, by the way). Searches like "financial planning" and "election guide" now trigger Google's localization algorithm: This type of query underscores the need to track rankings on a local level. I'm searching for a non-localized keyword ("election guide"), but Google recognizes I'm searching from Portland, Oregon so they add the localization layer to the result. Local tends to get lost in the shuffle of zoo animal updates we've seen from Google in the last couple of years, but search marketers are coming around to realize the 2012 Venice update was one of the most important changes Google made to the search landscape. It certainly didn't seem like a huge deal when it launched; here's how Google described Venice as part of the late lamented monthly search product updates they used to provide:
Seems innocent enough, right? What the Venice update actually kicked off was a long-term relationship between local search results (what we see in Google local packs and map results) and the organic search results that, once upon a time, existed on their own. "Localized organics," as they are known, have been increasingly altering the organic search landscape for keywords that normally triggered "generic" or national rankings. If you haven't already read it, Mike Ramsey's article on how to adjust for the Venice update remains one of the best strategic looks at the algorithm update. This jump in localized organic results has prompted both marketers and business owners to track rankings at the local level. An increasing number of Moz customers have been requesting the ability to add locations to their keywords since the 2012 Venice update, and this is likely due to Google expanding the queries which trigger a localized result. You asked for it, and today we're delivering. Our new local rankings feature allows our customers to track keywords for any city, state, or ZIP/postal code. Geo-located searchesWe can now return rankings based on a location you specify, just like I set my search to Portland in the example above. This is critical for monitoring the health of your local search campaigns, as Google continues to fold the location layer into the organic results. Here's how it looks in Moz Analytics: A keyword with a location specified counts against your keyword limit in Moz Analytics just like any other keyword. The location being tracked will also be displayed in your rankings reports as well as on the keyword analysis page: The local rankings feature allows you to enter your desired tracking location by city, state, neighborhood, and zip or postal code. We provide neighborhood-level granularity via dropdown for the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. The dropdown will also provide city-level listings for other countries. It's also possible to enter a location of your choice not on the list in the text box. Fair warning: We cannot guarantee the accuracy of rankings in mythical locations like Westeros or Twin Peaks, or mythical spellings like Pordland or Los Andules. An easy way to get started with the new feature is to look at keywords you are already tracking, and find the ones that have an obvious local intent for searchers. Then add the neighborhood or city you are targeting for the most qualified searchers. What's next?We will be launching local rankings functionality within the Moz Local application in the first part of 2015, which will provide needed visibility to folks who are mainly concerned with Local SEO. We're also working on functionality to allow users to easily add geo-modifiers to their tracked keywords, so we can provide rankings for "health club Des Moines" alongside tracking rankings for "health clubs" in the 50301 zip code. Right now this feature works with all Google engines (we'll be adding Bing and Yahoo! later). We'll also be keeping tabs on Google's advancements on the local front so we can provide our customers with the best data on their local visibility. Please let us know what you think in the comments below! Customer feedback, suggestions, and comments were instrumental into both the design and prioritization of this feature. Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!     |
The latest trend with publishers like BuzzFeed and Huffington Post is listicle posts that round up the funniest/saddest/most absurd stories from different threads on Reddit or other forums. Editors read through a thread and select what they deem to be the 10+ best posts under that topic, and publish the list either as is or including new images and light commentary. BuzzFeed has also taken this a step further and created posts that are simply open-ended questions people can answer for the chance to be featured in a follow-up post that includes the top answers.
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Seth's Blog : Clear language and respect
Clear language and respect
Our connection economy thrives when people understand what to expect from one another. We're more likely than ever to engage in interactions that involve an exchange, something that deserves a specific clarification. I'll do this and you'll do that.
More and more agreements are being made, because more and more transactions happen outside or between organizations. The question then: What does good drafting look like?
If the agreement starts with "whereas" and continues along with, "notwithstanding the foregoing," and when it must be decoded by a lawyer on the other side, something has gone wrong. These codewords, and the dense language that frequently appears in legal agreements, are symptoms of a system out of whack. It's possible to be precise without being obtuse.
There's actually no legal requirement that an agreement not be in specific, clear, everyday English. To do otherwise disrespects the person you're hoping to engage with. There's no legal requirement that even the terms of service for a website can't be clear and easy to understand. In fact, if the goal is to avoid confusion and the costs of the legal system when conflicts occur, the more clear, the better.
Consider this clause, which can change everything: "Any disagreements over the interpretation of this agreement will be resolved through binding, informal arbitration. Both of us agree to hire a non-involved attorney, submit up to five pages of material to state our case, and abide by her decision."
The best thing about this clause is that you'll almost never need it. Mutual respect and clear language lead to agreements that work.
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miercuri, 17 decembrie 2014
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Napoleon vs. Cheney: "Interrogation That Actually Works"; Icing on the "Hate-Cake"
- Pass the Cigars: US Lifts Some Restrictions on Cuba; Why Now?
- FOMC Statement: Does Change From "Considerable Time" to "Patient" Make Any Difference Whatsoever?
- Gasoline Expenditure Forecast at Lowest Levels in 11 Years
| Napoleon vs. Cheney: "Interrogation That Actually Works"; Icing on the "Hate-Cake" Posted: 17 Dec 2014 06:11 PM PST Not only is torture against international law, it also produces no useful intelligence. Common sense is enough to prove that statement. If someone threatened to rape your sister, kill your mom, or shackled you until you were half-dead while feeding you up your anus, you would say nearly anything to ease the pain. So would I, and so would everyone else. Anyone who disagrees is either a liar or a fool. Even Napoleon recognized that fact. Warning: This is a very long post. Please allow adequate time to read and digest what follows. I sincerely appreciate your effort to reading this post in entirety. Thanks. From a Napoleon Letter to Louis Alexandre Berthier in November 1798: "The barbarous custom of having men beaten who are suspected of having important secrets to reveal must be abolished. It has always been recognized that this way of interrogating men, by putting them to torture, produces nothing worthwhile. The poor wretches say anything that comes into their mind and what they think the interrogator wishes to know." Precisely. "I'd Do It Again in a Minute" Regardless of the complete futility and illegality of torture, former vice president Dick Cheney Pushes Back on Torture Report: 'I'd Do It Again in a Minute'. "I'd do it again in a minute," Cheney told Meet the Press's Chuck Todd, offering an unqualified condemnation of the Senate Intelligence Committee's investigation into the Bush administration's post-9/11 interrogation methods used at foreign "black sites," which many regard as torture.No Concern for Innocents There you have it. Dick Cheney does not give a rat's ass about innocent people swept up in the process, about people tortured to death, or for that matter about anything else. Our CIA kidnapped people on German soil and elsewhere, took them off to torture camps, only to find they got the wrong guys. Wrong People Kidnapped, then Tortured A search for Wrong German Citizen Kidnapped Tortured turns up many links. And let's not forget that one of Cheney's reasons for invading Iraq was "Hussein tortured people". Dick Cheney is the epitome of hypocrisy. Hypocrisy aside, Dick Cheney is also a war criminal under international law and any reasonable moral standard. If anyone in this world deserved to be kidnapped then tortured, Dick Cheney is right at the top of the list. Yet, as I have commented before, two wrongs don't make a right, so that is not action I advocate. "Interrogation That Actually Works" Instead of torture, let's consider "The Humane Interrogation Technique That Actually Works". The Senate Intelligence Committee report released this week found that the CIA tortured terror suspects by, among other things, putting hummus in a man's anus, forcing suspects to stand on broken feet, and blasting detainees with songs such as "Rawhide" at loud volumes on repeat.Torture Doesn't Work — So Here's What Does Please consider Torture Doesn't Work — So Here's What Does. Ticking Time Bomb Fallacy Research Digest says People's support for torture in "ticking time bomb scenarios" is influenced by their desire for retribution. In the wake of a report published yesterday into the CIA's use of torture, many people are shocked and appalled. Yet one defense of the practice remains popular - "the ticking time bomb scenario".Tick, Tick, Bull, Shit In Tick, Tick, Bull, Shit, Foreign Policy magazine says "Don't believe the CIA's ticking time bomb excuse when it says it had to torture." The ticking bomb scenario is a powerful hypothetical, and it's one that several former CIA directors really, really hope you'll keep in mind this week to counterbalance all those not-so-nice revelations contained in the just-released Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) report on CIA interrogations.Not only is it morally wrong and intended to produce panic, it doesn't even work. But whether it works or not, torture can never be morally justified. Emails From Both Sides For my coverage of the torture issue, I have received many emails on both sides of the camp. Some have been appreciative, others not. In response C.I.A. Director Brennan, a Proven Liar, Defends Torture; Brennan Should be Fired Immediately, then Prosecuted along with Other CIA Directors and Cheney, reader Randy replied "I agree with every word that Mish has written here! It should be raining pitchforks right now in D.C.!" A US Army Major Responded "I'm sad and horrified to read the details of the CIA's torture program. To me, it represents the sickest form of consequentialism, one that has run roughshod over any type of moral authority the U.S. can claim in offering its leadership to the world. I'm further upset that my fellow brothers and sisters in uniform will most likely underwrite this disastrous program, as the enemy will now be all too eager to respond in kind to any American serviceman or woman unlucky enough to endure capture. I only wish we had the moral courage to make those responsible accountable for these unmistakable atrocities." Not to me personally, but FTM Daily notes Evangelical Christian Leaders Rush to Defend CIA Torture. Writing for FTM Daily, Jerry Robinson says "Real patriotism is a willingness to challenge the government when it's wrong, even when that wrong is committed by people on your own side of the political aisle. That our leaders in Washington would be playing politics with clear claims of U.S. war crimes simply reveals the absolute depths that some people will go to win an argument". Reader Allen writes ... Hi Mish,Thanks Allen. Powerful I am not, but I do agree this is an extremely important topic. Reader Rich hits the nail on the head with the fewest words: "No justification - No benefit - No excuse" Not everyone see it that way. For example reader Lon McCarley called my torture posts a "losers' chicken sh*t solution". Hypocrites Need to Look in Mirror In a followup email Lon called me a hypocrite. So did reader Joe who also accused me of backing Obama. Joe writes "I had many friends and family members die on 9-11 so my perspective is clearly different from yours. Perhaps if you saw your three nieces lose their father your perspective might be different." In an email conversation, Joe called my link about kidnapping and torturing of the wrong German citizen "unfortunate". No Joe, it's not "unfortunate"; it's illegal. Imagine Germany kidnapping US citizens on US soil, then torturing them, then admitting it was "unfortunate". If it's OK for the US to kidnap German citizens, send them off to Afghanistan or wherever and torture them .... then logically it is OK for every other country on the planet to have the exact same rights. My position is clear and consistent. I do not condone torture and I do not condone Obama's drone policy. I have written about the counterproductive policies of Obama's drone policy on many occasions. US Drone Policy November 25, 2014: War on Terror: Drones Target 41 but Kill 1,147 Mostly Innocent men, Women, and Children March 19, 2014: Negative Sum Game. September 01, 2013: Terrorists Won the War on Terror; 74% of Pakistanis View US as Enemy, 60% Have No Confidence in Obama. The hypocrites in this world (many republicans, many democrats, and many of the evangelical right) support torture. They sound like Nixon "when the president does it, it's not illegal). I do not care whether someone is a liberal, conservative, or a hypocrite. I know five things about torture.
Dick Cheney War Criminal Former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura has the same opinion (see Jesse Ventura on Dick Cheney: A 'chickenhawk' war criminal who should be in jail). We don't need Jesse Ventura to tell us what's right or wrong about Dick Cheney. It's obvious. Cheney has wrapped himself in the US flag as if that makes him above the law. I stand by what I have said. The above articles on the total uselessness of torture speak volumes. The attacks on moral grounds are even more important. Many readers sent various reports from CIA officials and others in support of torture, citing its effectiveness. Not a damn one of those reports is believable. What would you expect the top CIA officials to say: We got nothing out of it? Torture doesn't work and we proved it? Of course these liars are going to deny the truth. Their ass is on the line! Even if the CIA can cite examples of gaining "intelligence", serious questions remain: Could the CIA have gotten the same information sooner, without torture? Studies suggest "Yes". Chickenhawk Counterattack We invaded Iraq for purpose of revenge and to carry out chickenhawk wishes. Now that we have made a total mess of things, the people who f*d it up the most blame Obama. Of course, Obama is also at fault. And it's infuriating. US drone policy makes more enemies than it does anything else. No Joe, my position would not be any different if I lost loved ones in 911. The 911 attack does not give the US the right or the "moral authority" to stoop to the level of terrorists. Majority Say Torture is Acceptable Yesterday, I reported New Poll Shows US Citizens in Every Demographic Support Torture (Republicans, Democrats, White, Black, Young, Old). I have never been so disgusted in all my writing career, than after reading that poll. Atheists have better moral standards on torture than Christians. Christian advocates claim abortion is wrong because it kills innocent human lives, a very questionable thesis that depends entirely on when life begins. Whatever your view, unless you have been religiously brainwashed, there is room for debate. On the other hand, torture that has ended in death, and US drone policy that has done the same to an even greater extent, are supported overwhelmingly by the "religious wrong". To these hypocrites, the unborn are far more important than the born, including innocent women and children. Questions on Poll Bias A close friend of mine questioned the poll. So did reader Richard who made comment, then asked a question. Comment: "I couldn't agree more with your stance on torture. Thank you for putting your opinion out for all to see." Question: "Is there any hope that these polls are tainted?" Reader Larry also picked up on the question bias thesis and proposed five new poll questions:
I suspect the poll results would be different with those questions, but how much different? Why Torture? If Torture does not work, and it doesn't, why do it? Explaining Torture
Of those reasons, numbers one and two are key. Head of the Luftwaffe, and Nazi Gestapo founder, Hermann Wilhelm Göring explained in prison following the Nuremberg Trials. Goering at the Nuremberg Trials Göring: Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.Icing on the "Hate-Cake" Polls aside, torturing never does any good, ever. Reputable studies, as cited above prove it! And when innocent people are killed, we make more enemies than we had before. But as Nazi Gestapo founder, Hermann Wilhelm Göring states "people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders." And so they have. Thoroughly Disgusted Reader Ben writes ... Hello MishUS Government Interrogator Chimes In Reader Peter, a US government interrogator chimes in ... Hey Mish,Hate Us for Our Freedoms? No one "hates us for our freedoms" as the claim goes. They hate us for our blatant hypocrisy, for our might-makes-right attitude, and for our constant meddling where we have no business at all. Torture and defense of it by Dick Cheney, by flag-waving hypocrites, and by brainwashed fools who believe everything the CIA and torture advocates claim, is icing on the extremely counterproductive hate-cake, sure to cause more global misery. Perpetual War Those looking for a reason the "Battle for Perpetual War is Won" need look no further than torture-supporting hypocrites, wrapped in a US flag, and singing a "holier-than-thou" tune. Addendum: In spite of the above logic, twisted minds persist with "Tick, Tick, Bull, Shit". For example: In a comment to this post, reader Jay Kurtz asks ... Assume you are the President, and the country has just been attacked on the country's soil in which thousands of citizens where killed. You are concerned that other attacks, in a manner which are of course unknown, are imminent. The military (or intelligence agency) has captured a person who is believed (say with 50% probability) to have information regarding possible future attacks. Your CIA director tells you that interrogation has failed, and recommends torture methods. Suppose there is only a 1% probability of gaining novel and useful information from such torture methods to head off a 2nd attack (of which, say, for argument's sake there is a 25% chance of occurring).Jay's comment and question was pure "Tick, Tick, Hypothetical, BullShit" at it's finest. OK Jay Kurtz, suppose the authorities are 50% sure your son or daughter is involved with a group that may be planning to bomb a school. Is it OK for the authorities to pull out your kid's fingernails? Cut off limbs? Threaten to torture your kids friends? Where does your support for tick, tick, hypothetical bullshit stop? The answer of course is "torture is always morally wrong". But hypocrites only see it that way when it affects them adversely. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Pass the Cigars: US Lifts Some Restrictions on Cuba; Why Now? Posted: 17 Dec 2014 02:12 PM PST Sanctions and embargoes don't work. And in the case of Cuba, it took the US 52 years to partially realize that. In 1962, President John F. Kennedy signed into law a Cuban trade embargo. I have long known how foolish Kennedy's decision was (and the decision of every president since). But I did not know until today how blatantly hypocritical Kennedy's action was. A clip from Cigars All Around in the Financial Times explains: The day before Kennedy signed the law, "Kennedy ordered an aide to buy him 1,000 Petit Upmanns cigars. It was only after Kennedy got word that his request had been carried out that he authorised the new regulations that banned Cuban imports and would have made the purchase illegal." Wow. For 52 years, the US embargo poisoned he Cuba-US relationship. What good did it do? Did it drive Castro out of power? Or did it help keep Castro in power? I suggest the latter. Free trade is always beneficial and always better than war or cold war. US goods flowing into Cuba and tourists with money would have done more for a regime change than pressure. Hopefully it won't take 52 years for the US to realize the stupidity of sanctions on Russia. Don't hold your breath. Cuba's Support of Terrorism The Financial Times notes "Obama ordered a six month review of Cuba's designation as a 'state sponsor of terrorism'. Even the State Department no longer attempts to justify this label, which devalues Washington's word on international terrorism issues and triggers international financial sanctions against Cuba." In other words, we've been lied to for years about Cuba. Hardly shocking. Why Now? I would like to suggest Obama is taking this step because it's the right thing to do, but that's not what is likely happening. I believe this sentence explains what's going on. "In 2000, Cuban-American voters broke three-to-one for Republicans in the presidential election. But in 2012, exit polls showed Cuban-Americans splitting 50:50." When push comes to shove, expect a choice to be made on how many votes that decision may win. Right vs. wrong is simply not part of the decision-making process! Regardless, doing the right thing for the wrong reason is better than doing the wrong thing for the right reason. So pass the cigars. Just don't smoke the damn things unless you want cancer of the tongue and mouth. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| FOMC Statement: Does Change From "Considerable Time" to "Patient" Make Any Difference Whatsoever? Posted: 17 Dec 2014 12:50 PM PST Today the Fed made its much awaited FOMC Announcement. Pundits poring over the statement have generally concluded as does the Financial Times, that Fed Signals Tightening by Mid-2015. Why? Because the Fed dropped its forecast that it will keep low interest rates for a "considerable time". Now the Fed says it can be "patient" in judging when to start raising rates. The Financial Times claims the "new language is designed to reassure markets that rate rises are not imminent." If rate hikes are not imminent, what difference does the change make? Three Dissents Hawk: Richard Fisher objected because "improvement in the U.S. economic performance since October has moved forward, further than the majority of the Committee envisions, the date when it will likely be appropriate to increase the federal funds rate" Dove: Narayana Kocherlakota believes "the Committee's decision, in the context of ongoing low inflation and falling market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, created undue downside risk to the credibility of the 2 percent inflation target." Data Dependent: Charles Plosser believes "the statement should not stress the importance of the passage of time as a key element of its forward guidance and, given the improvement in economic conditions, should not emphasize the consistency of the current forward guidance with previous statements." Of the three dissents, there is one hawk, one dove, and one statement can be interpreted any way you want, but generally seems neutral. What Plosser failed to say is what he would have done today, if he was running the show. As for where interest rates should be now, the answer is clearly "not here" based on numerous asset bubbles the Fed is too blind to see. In terms of what to expect down the road, it's quite preposterous to pore over every word as if it means anything. Actions speak louder than words. Expectations vs. Reality The market expected a word change, so the Fed made one. But a lot can happen in the next six months. The US could be back in recession next month, or the next four job reports can be 500,000 each. Those are extremes of course, but they are possible. "Patient for a Considerable Time" If a slowdown comes at all, and I believe one is coming, then expect the Fed to be "patient for a considerable time" whether the fed mentions the words "considerable time" again or not. Viewed that way, the language change is meaningless. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Gasoline Expenditure Forecast at Lowest Levels in 11 Years Posted: 17 Dec 2014 11:38 AM PST The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts U.S. Household Gasoline Expenditures in 2015 On Track to be the Lowest in 11 Years. The average U.S. household is expected to spend about $550 less on gasoline in 2015 compared with 2014, as annual motor fuel expenditures are on track to fall to their lowest level in 11 years. Lower fuel expenditures are attributable to a combination of falling retail gasoline prices and more fuel-efficient cars and trucks that reduce the number of gallons used to travel a given distance.Expenditure Forecast  The expenditure forecast is not surprising given the drop in oil prices. West Texas Crude  I commented on oil factors in What's Behind the Plunge in Oil? Winners and Losers? Boon to Spending or Recessionary? Short and Longterm Factors
I give heaviest weight to number one, but they all cascade. Points 5 and 6 play out slowly over time. At some juncture, point 6 will reverse from being a drag on consumption to an expansion of consumption, but that could take a long time. Demographic attitudes take a long time to peak. Boon to Spending or Recessionary? Credit Suisse Group economists think cheaper oil will make "Fed tightening in the first half more likely." Is it that simple? I think not, siding with Early Slowdown Signs Emerge for U.S. Oil States After Crude Slide. After leading the U.S. economic recovery out of recession, some of the nation's top oil states are showing early signs of a slowdown as a result of the plunge in crude prices.View on 2015 The energy shakedown, currency volatility in numerous countries, a slowdown in China, numerous Eurozone problems, and bubbles in bonds and equities do not bode well for 2015. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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