miercuri, 28 ianuarie 2015

How to do Keyword Research in 90 Minutes

How to do Keyword Research in 90 Minutes


How to do Keyword Research in 90 Minutes

Posted: 27 Jan 2015 04:15 PM PST

Posted by Jeremy_Gottlieb

Everyone's been in the position where there's a million and one things going on, but a client (or you) still requires top-notch keyword research. So something needs to get done in a pinch. Searching around the internet and learning more about the trendiest aspects of keyword research (because let's face it, either it's been a while since you last did it or it's your first time doing it) can take a ton of time. There are literally millions of things you could be reading about it; actually 15.4 million if we want to be precise.

keyword research queries Google

Unfortunately, no one has time to sift through 15,400,000 results and identify which ones are timely, relevant, or even correct. That's why I set restrictions so I could stick to a regimented, specific and effective schedule for identifying and presenting the most effective keywords for organic search, no matter who the client is.

We begin this case study with a fictitious client, Joey Antipodean, who lives in Manhattan and really loves kangaroos. In fact, he loves them so much he decided to make a website, www.kangaroosnyc.com (not real and available for sale on GoDaddy) for other admirers of this wonderful marsupial to ask questions, share stories and have a vibrant, loyal community.

Using the Google suite of tools (40 minutes)

Let's assume Joey has properly set up Google Analytics (GA) and Google Webmaster Tools (GWT). This is a great place to begin, as we can start to see which pages are attracting the most organic traffic and for which terms. Since Google stopped displaying its keywords in GA and replaced them with "not provided," utilizing GA for keyword research involves a bit of educated guesswork. Step by step, this is what we'll do:

  1. Enter into Joey's GA account and click on "Acquisition" in the left-hand navigation
  2. Under "Acquisition", click on "Source/Medium"
  3. In the primary data on the page, click on "google / organic" (Figure 1)
  4. Click on "Secondary Dimension" and under "Behavior" you will find "Landing Page" (Figure 2)

Acquisition data in Google Analytics (Figure 1)

Landing page data Google Analytics(Figure 2)

What we are left with are the top landing pages (as opposed to destination pages, which are for internal search), and from here we can infer which keywords and their variants are driving traffic to the site. We can also assume based on the content of these pages what the users' intent is and at what point in the conversion funnel they are.

landing page data Google Analytics

But we can get even more specific. GWT allows us to see specific data on search queries, impressions, clicks, CTR, and average position on the page. Once again, we'll find Joey's account, and this time we'll click on "Search Traffic" in the left-hand navigation, which will reveal anchor text for "Search Queries". Clicking on "Search Queries" will yield the treasure trove of information mentioned earlier that can be easily sorted and/or downloaded. Filters can be played with to remove branded traffic and voila, all that remains is pure, unbranded search queries actually used by real, live people to at least see SERPs for www.kangaroosnyc.com.

search queries Google Webmaster Tools

We can even click on the tab for "Top pages" instead of "Top queries," and we can see once again the top pages by organic search. What is different about this than the GA list of URLs is that by clicking on the individual URLs, GWT will actually provide a list of keywords used to generate impressions and clicks. Pretty great, right?

top pages in Google Webmaster Tools

Let's begin to place some of the fictitious keywords we found in the fictitious GA and GWT accounts for Joey's site into a Google Docs spreadsheet. In a bit, we'll get back to these and attach a number of monthly searches to them. Now we know what we're dealing with and we can move on to improving our selection of keywords. One of my favorite tools is Google Keyword Planner (GKP), and while it is by no means perfect, it certainly is a great place to start.

In GKP, we'll click on "Search for new keyword and ad group ideas" and enter "kangaroos" into the box as our product or service. We can leave the rest of this empty for now, though there are many other ways to successfully leverage the other boxes on this page for keyword research.

Keyword planner for keyword research

keyword ideas Adwords

After we click on "Get ideas" at the bottom of the page, the magic begins to happen. Click on "Avg. monthly searches" to sort the queries from most sought-after to least.

keyword search volume adwords

Clicking on the top ad group, "Kangaroo", we see mostly short-tail keywords that receive the lion's share of the search queries, but towards the bottom we see a few long-tail queries like "where do kangaroos live" that receive 1,000 searches per month. Being realistic and knowing the audience of our site, we should focus on more long-tail queries. This will grant us a better chance of competing in the SERPs due to lesser competition from sites like National Geographic, Wikipedia, and zoos among others.

Another relatively unknown Google-provided tool for keyword research is Google Instant. Google keeps track of what people are searching for and as we begin typing a query into the search bar, it will begin to autopopulate the remainder of the query based on what other people are searching for. This is a great tactic for identifying long-tail keywords.

Google instant suggestions

We'll take these keywords as well as the ones we already had (before we began the keyword research) and plug them into the part of GKP that allows us to find the search traffic for specific queries. All we'll need to do is click on "modify search" and click the option for "Get search volume for a list of keywords or group them into ad groups" before loading the box up with the desired keywords.

Assess the reality: To optimize existing pages or make new ones? (15 minutes)

We want to do a quick analysis here to establish where and if we can compete in the SERPs. Are the domains authoritative and strong or relatively weak and unknown? Moz's Open Site Explorer is a fantastic option for checking out the strength of the competition in the SERPs and finding out if we've got a chance on the first page. For the search query "what do kangaroos eat", which gets 2,400 searches per month, the results seem to be fairly easy competition. Of course, our site doesn't actually exist so it's impossible to rank higher than a real site, but the point is that some weaker pages in the SERPs can be overtaken.

SERPs kangaroo eat

OSE kangaroo food serps

We'll need to take the list of keywords that we're accumulating in our Google Doc and sort it in descending order of monthly search volume. From here we can get a better view of synonyms or closely-related keywords and their search volume. From here, it's time to put our work to the test to see the variance in the SERPs for different but related keywords. If we're seeing the same pages show up time and time again for different queries, we can infer that we don't need to place all the different queries on separate pages; we can just leave some out because they will naturally receive organic traffic through Google's advanced understanding of semantic intent.

Lastly, we're going to select our top-performing keywords from our already-existing list of keywords driving traffic to the site as well as the new ones and figure out where they should go. Are the current title tags perfectly optimized for keywords, or do some need tweaking, while others present solid opportunities, but there is no page that exists for them just yet, so a new page should be created? These are the questions we answer now.

Listen to the ideal audience (15 minutes)

What we've done so far is monitor what we think our audience wants and track those results in Google, but we're biased. I think it's time we heard it from the horse's (read: kangaroo's) mouth. Social media is a very powerful tool, but most marketers only think of it as a tool for content dissemination. By using hashtags and keywords, we can find out how people are actually speaking about what interests us. Ideally this will lead us to influencers or people with large followings and judging by what is said, we can figure out what is interesting to the audience that occupies a given niche.

For example, by typing "kangaroo pet" into the Twitter search bar we're able to see that there is indeed demand for these words and largely within the context we want to see, not the action of softly stroking the animal. This post by Ann Smarty details some other forms of social media that can be used to perform keyword research, but in the spirit of sticking to a 90-minute plan, we're only going to focus on Twitter for now.

Searching on Twitter should confirm or give a few ideas that can be passed into GKP in order to add to our list of potential keywords. However, it's worth pointing out that most long-tail queries aren't going to receive enough traffic to justify building out a new evergreen page, but if the topic is talked about on social media, it could very well serve as a good blog post. Evergreen content, for those unfamiliar with it, is content that rarely becomes irrelevant with time as opposed to a timely blog post.

Slightly different than social media and Twitter is the use of forums. The informal nature of these tends to lead to questions and answers actually posed and answered by humans, not indexed by robots and spit out by some algorithm; responses here are usually very detailed and highly relevant to a given question. If a question surfaces in multiple threads or is just genuinely interesting, that could serve as the impetus for a new evergreen page or as a blog post. We've already established that long-tail is going to be better than short-tail keywords for this particular client, so we need to take advantage of Google's advances in semantic search by providing authoritative content that is interesting and provides strong answers to common questions asked by members of the ideal audience.

Wayne Gretzky had a famous quote for what made him such a great hockey player. He said, "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." If we're metaphorically always skating to where the puck has been rather than where it's going, we're granting other sites the ability to develop authority on a topic before we do. Even if Joey's site does not focus on a small, but growing niche now, by beginning to blog and write about it, by the time that topic does become a part of Joey's main offering or it becomes mainstream, Google very well might recognize the site as an expert because it has been writing about it for a while when no one else was. An example of this could be "how wallabies differ from kangaroos" or "are wallabies legal in the United States as pets".

Demonstrate room for growth (20 Minutes)

So, great, we've done our keyword research and feel proud of the work we've performed, but how do we know Joey Antipodean will care or even take interest? SEOs often find themselves immersed in their own little worlds so sometimes it can be difficult to realize that outsiders care less about semantics or hunches about keywords, and more about data and easily recognizable figures.

An e-commerce site should be able to provide the average order value (AOV) for a transaction, but not every site, Joey's included, measures conversions in terms of dollars. In this case, let's say that www.kangaroosnyc.com is looking for email signups and converts visitors at a 3% rate. We're also going to assume that five of the site's fictitious, non-keyword optimized pages hold the number four spot in the SERPs of Google for a couple of search queries.

Using estimated click-through rate data, like the graph below from a study published by Advanced Web Ranking, we see that the number four spot on average has a click-through rate of 6.97%. Assuming that there are 10,000 impressions for those top five pages in a month, 697 will advance through to the website. Of those 697, only 3% or nearly 21 people will sign up and provide their email.

estimated clickthrough data
Read more about this study in Google Organic Click-Through Rates in 2014

This isn't the best we can do. We anticipate that the keywords that we're trying to rank for can eventually land us in the number one position. The same study mentioned above cites that the number one position on Google has a click-through rate of 31.24%. Moving up to the number one spot (just a three spot gain) would earn 3,124 clicks across those same 10,000 impressions, which would yield close to 94 email signups, or 73 more signups with keyword optimization vs. leaving the pages as un-optimized. This is the type of data to be highlighted in a keyword research document. For an e-commerce client, we'd focus on possible future revenue rather than email signups.

calculating emails captures

The example of Kangaroos NYC and its make-believe traffic and conversion rate is just an example, but the concept holds true for nearly all clients. Find out your client's current click-through and conversion rates and demonstrate how that data compares to known click-through rate for SERPs on the first page. Don't forget, the whole reason for keyword research is to rank as high as possible for terms that drive (qualified) traffic, so being able to show how much room for growth exists makes your cases for implementing changes all the more compelling.

What are your tips and tricks for quick, but effective keyword research?


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How to do Keyword Research in 90 Minutes - Moz Blog

How to do Keyword Research in 90 Minutes - Moz Blog
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How to do Keyword Research in 90 Minutes

Posted on: Wednesday 28 January 2015 — 01:15

Posted by Jeremy_Gottlieb

Everyone's been in the position where there's a million and one things going on, but a client (or you) still requires top-notch keyword research. So something needs to get done in a pinch. Searching around the internet and learning more about the trendiest aspects of keyword research (because let's face it, either it's been a while since you last did it or it's your first time doing it) can take a ton of time. There are literally millions of things you could be reading about it; actually 15.4 million if we want to be precise.

keyword research queries Google

Unfortunately, no one has time to sift through 15,400,000 results and identify which ones are timely, relevant, or even correct. That's why I set restrictions so I could stick to a regimented, specific and effective schedule for identifying and presenting the most effective keywords for organic search, no matter who the client is.

We begin this case study with a fictitious client, Joey Antipodean, who lives in Manhattan and really loves kangaroos. In fact, he loves them so much he decided to make a website, www.kangaroosnyc.com (not real and available for sale on GoDaddy) for other admirers of this wonderful marsupial to ask questions, share stories and have a vibrant, loyal community.

Using the Google suite of tools (40 minutes)

Let's assume Joey has properly set up Google Analytics (GA) and Google Webmaster Tools (GWT). This is a great place to begin, as we can start to see which pages are attracting the most organic traffic and for which terms. Since Google stopped displaying its keywords in GA and replaced them with "not provided," utilizing GA for keyword research involves a bit of educated guesswork. Step by step, this is what we'll do:

  1. Enter into Joey's GA account and click on "Acquisition" in the left-hand navigation
  2. Under "Acquisition", click on "Source/Medium"
  3. In the primary data on the page, click on "google / organic" (Figure 1)
  4. Click on "Secondary Dimension" and under "Behavior" you will find "Landing Page" (Figure 2)

Acquisition data in Google Analytics(Figure 1)

Landing page data Google Analytics(Figure 2)

What we are left with are the top landing pages (as opposed to destination pages, which are for internal search), and from here we can infer which keywords and their variants are driving traffic to the site. We can also assume based on the content of these pages what the users' intent is and at what point in the conversion funnel they are.

landing page data Google Analytics

But we can get even more specific. GWT allows us to see specific data on search queries, impressions, clicks, CTR, and average position on the page. Once again, we'll find Joey's account, and this time we'll click on "Search Traffic" in the left-hand navigation, which will reveal anchor text for "Search Queries". Clicking on "Search Queries" will yield the treasure trove of information mentioned earlier that can be easily sorted and/or downloaded. Filters can be played with to remove branded traffic and voila, all that remains is pure, unbranded search queries actually used by real, live people to at least see SERPs for www.kangaroosnyc.com.

search queries Google Webmaster Tools

We can even click on the tab for "Top pages" instead of "Top queries," and we can see once again the top pages by organic search. What is different about this than the GA list of URLs is that by clicking on the individual URLs, GWT will actually provide a list of keywords used to generate impressions and clicks. Pretty great, right?

top pages in Google Webmaster Tools

Let's begin to place some of the fictitious keywords we found in the fictitious GA and GWT accounts for Joey's site into a Google Docs spreadsheet. In a bit, we'll get back to these and attach a number of monthly searches to them. Now we know what we're dealing with and we can move on to improving our selection of keywords. One of my favorite tools is Google Keyword Planner (GKP), and while it is by no means perfect, it certainly is a great place to start.

In GKP, we'll click on "Search for new keyword and ad group ideas" and enter "kangaroos" into the box as our product or service. We can leave the rest of this empty for now, though there are many other ways to successfully leverage the other boxes on this page for keyword research.

Keyword planner for keyword research

keyword ideas Adwords

After we click on "Get ideas" at the bottom of the page, the magic begins to happen. Click on "Avg. monthly searches" to sort the queries from most sought-after to least.

keyword search volume adwords

Clicking on the top ad group, "Kangaroo", we see mostly short-tail keywords that receive the lion's share of the search queries, but towards the bottom we see a few long-tail queries like "where do kangaroos live" that receive 1,000 searches per month. Being realistic and knowing the audience of our site, we should focus on more long-tail queries. This will grant us a better chance of competing in the SERPs due to lesser competition from sites like National Geographic, Wikipedia, and zoos among others.

Another relatively unknown Google-provided tool for keyword research is Google Instant. Google keeps track of what people are searching for and as we begin typing a query into the search bar, it will begin to autopopulate the remainder of the query based on what other people are searching for. This is a great tactic for identifying long-tail keywords.

Google instant suggestions

We'll take these keywords as well as the ones we already had (before we began the keyword research) and plug them into the part of GKP that allows us to find the search traffic for specific queries. All we'll need to do is click on "modify search" and click the option for "Get search volume for a list of keywords or group them into ad groups" before loading the box up with the desired keywords.

Assess the reality: To optimize existing pages or make new ones? (15 minutes)

We want to do a quick analysis here to establish where and if we can compete in the SERPs. Are the domains authoritative and strong or relatively weak and unknown? Moz's Open Site Explorer is a fantastic option for checking out the strength of the competition in the SERPs and finding out if we've got a chance on the first page. For the search query "what do kangaroos eat", which gets 2,400 searches per month, the results seem to be fairly easy competition. Of course, our site doesn't actually exist so it's impossible to rank higher than a real site, but the point is that some weaker pages in the SERPs can be overtaken.

SERPs kangaroo eat

OSE kangaroo food serps

We'll need to take the list of keywords that we're accumulating in our Google Doc and sort it in descending order of monthly search volume. From here we can get a better view of synonyms or closely-related keywords and their search volume. From here, it's time to put our work to the test to see the variance in the SERPs for different but related keywords. If we're seeing the same pages show up time and time again for different queries, we can infer that we don't need to place all the different queries on separate pages; we can just leave some out because they will naturally receive organic traffic through Google's advanced understanding of semantic intent.

Lastly, we're going to select our top-performing keywords from our already-existing list of keywords driving traffic to the site as well as the new ones and figure out where they should go. Are the current title tags perfectly optimized for keywords, or do some need tweaking, while others present solid opportunities, but there is no page that exists for them just yet, so a new page should be created? These are the questions we answer now.

Listen to the ideal audience (15 minutes)

What we've done so far is monitor what we think our audience wants and track those results in Google, but we're biased. I think it's time we heard it from the horse's (read: kangaroo's) mouth. Social media is a very powerful tool, but most marketers only think of it as a tool for content dissemination. By using hashtags and keywords, we can find out how people are actually speaking about what interests us. Ideally this will lead us to influencers or people with large followings and judging by what is said, we can figure out what is interesting to the audience that occupies a given niche.

For example, by typing "kangaroo pet" into the Twitter search bar we're able to see that there is indeed demand for these words and largely within the context we want to see, not the action of softly stroking the animal. This post by Ann Smarty details some other forms of social media that can be used to perform keyword research, but in the spirit of sticking to a 90-minute plan, we're only going to focus on Twitter for now.

Searching on Twitter should confirm or give a few ideas that can be passed into GKP in order to add to our list of potential keywords. However, it's worth pointing out that most long-tail queries aren't going to receive enough traffic to justify building out a new evergreen page, but if the topic is talked about on social media, it could very well serve as a good blog post. Evergreen content, for those unfamiliar with it, is content that rarely becomes irrelevant with time as opposed to a timely blog post.

Slightly different than social media and Twitter is the use of forums. The informal nature of these tends to lead to questions and answers actually posed and answered by humans, not indexed by robots and spit out by some algorithm; responses here are usually very detailed and highly relevant to a given question. If a question surfaces in multiple threads or is just genuinely interesting, that could serve as the impetus for a new evergreen page or as a blog post. We've already established that long-tail is going to be better than short-tail keywords for this particular client, so we need to take advantage of Google's advances in semantic search by providing authoritative content that is interesting and provides strong answers to common questions asked by members of the ideal audience.

Wayne Gretzky had a famous quote for what made him such a great hockey player. He said, "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." If we're metaphorically always skating to where the puck has been rather than where it's going, we're granting other sites the ability to develop authority on a topic before we do. Even if Joey's site does not focus on a small, but growing niche now, by beginning to blog and write about it, by the time that topic does become a part of Joey's main offering or it becomes mainstream, Google very well might recognize the site as an expert because it has been writing about it for a while when no one else was. An example of this could be "how wallabies differ from kangaroos" or "are wallabies legal in the United States as pets".

Demonstrate room for growth (20 Minutes)

So, great, we've done our keyword research and feel proud of the work we've performed, but how do we know Joey Antipodean will care or even take interest? SEOs often find themselves immersed in their own little worlds so sometimes it can be difficult to realize that outsiders care less about semantics or hunches about keywords, and more about data and easily recognizable figures.

An e-commerce site should be able to provide the average order value (AOV) for a transaction, but not every site, Joey's included, measures conversions in terms of dollars. In this case, let's say that www.kangaroosnyc.com is looking for email signups and converts visitors at a 3% rate. We're also going to assume that five of the site's fictitious, non-keyword optimized pages hold the number four spot in the SERPs of Google for a couple of search queries.

Using estimated click-through rate data, like the graph below from a study published by Advanced Web Ranking, we see that the number four spot on average has a click-through rate of 6.97%. Assuming that there are 10,000 impressions for those top five pages in a month, 697 will advance through to the website. Of those 697, only 3% or nearly 21 people will sign up and provide their email.

estimated clickthrough data
Read more about this study in Google Organic Click-Through Rates in 2014

This isn't the best we can do. We anticipate that the keywords that we're trying to rank for can eventually land us in the number one position. The same study mentioned above cites that the number one position on Google has a click-through rate of 31.24%. Moving up to the number one spot (just a three spot gain) would earn 3,124 clicks across those same 10,000 impressions, which would yield close to 94 email signups, or 73 more signups with keyword optimization vs. leaving the pages as un-optimized. This is the type of data to be highlighted in a keyword research document. For an e-commerce client, we'd focus on possible future revenue rather than email signups.

calculating emails captures

The example of Kangaroos NYC and its make-believe traffic and conversion rate is just an example, but the concept holds true for nearly all clients. Find out your client's current click-through and conversion rates and demonstrate how that data compares to known click-through rate for SERPs on the first page. Don't forget, the whole reason for keyword research is to rank as high as possible for terms that drive (qualified) traffic, so being able to show how much room for growth exists makes your cases for implementing changes all the more compelling.

What are your tips and tricks for quick, but effective keyword research?


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Seth's Blog : The best laid plans

The best laid plans

As your plans get more detailed, it's also more and more likely that they won't work exactly as you described them.

Certainly, it's worth visualizing the thing you're working to build. When it works, what's it going to be like?

Even more important, though, is being able to describe what you're going to do when the plan doesn't work. Because it won't. Not the way you expect, certainly.

Things will break, be late, miss the spec. People will let you down, surprise you or change their minds. Sales won't get made, promises will be broken, formulas will change.

All part of the plan that includes the fact that plans almost never come true.

       

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marți, 27 ianuarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Greek Payback Math at 0% Interest

Posted: 27 Jan 2015 06:59 PM PST

Payback of Greek Debt

Greece has something like €315 billion of public debt.

Forget about that. Instead focus on liabilities as presented in Revised Greek Default Scenario: Liabilities Shifted to German and French Taxpayers; Bluff of the Day Revisited.

The above total is a "modest" €256 billion to be paid back over time.

  1. Assume 0% interest
  2. Assume a Current Account Surplus of 3% of GDP
  3. Assume Greek Debt-to-GDP is 176%
  4. Assume Greek Debt €312 billion
  5. Assume Greek GDP is €178 billion

Point 5 is derived from points 3 and 4. The numbers seem to vary a bit depending on the source, but they should be close enough for this exercise.

Payback Math at 0% Interest

Let's assume that Greece can run a 3% current account surplus for as long as it takes to pay back €256 billion.

3% of €178 billion is €5.35 billion. To pay back €256 billion it would take about 48 years. That assumes 0% interest and a 3% current account surplus every year for 48 years!

Those calculations ignore rising GDP. But they also ignore a huge burden on Greek citizens for 48 years.

Let's be honest: Greece is not going to run current account surpluses of 3% per year for perpetuity.

Unrealistic Debt

Syriza says Greece Debt Repayment in Full is 'Unrealistic'.

My math says Syriza is correct. But that math assumes debt is as stated above.

What is Greek Debt-to-GDP?

Financial Times writer Ferdinando Giugliano asks Is Greek government debt really 177% of GDP?
Economists tend to disagree over how sustainable this burden really is: some point to the sheer size of the liabilities, saying Athens will never be able to pay them back. Others emphasise the favourable conditions which the Greek government has secured on official sector loans in two rounds of restructuring: these include heavily subsidised interest rates and a lengthening of the average maturity of the debt, which now stands at 16.5 years, double Italy's or Germany's.

One figure on which everyone tends to agree, however, is that Greece's public debt is 177 per cent of gross domestic product, the highest level in the eurozone. Well, everyone but a private equity group and a number of accountants, who think the relevant figure could be as low as 68 per cent.

The calculation is part of a large bet which private equity group Japonica Partners has made on Greek debt through the years. A year and a half ago, Japonica, led by former Goldman Sachs banker Paul Kazarian, offered to buy as much as €2.9bn of Greek government debt. The group has launched a campaign to prove that Greece's liabilities are significantly more sustainable than the headline debt-to-GDP ratio suggest.

This could be easily dismissed as a private equity group talking its books. Except that it raises some interesting issues over how governments calculate their debts. The question is at the heart of a debate among the accounting community, with some thinking that the way states calculate their liabilities is out-dated and should be revamped to resemble more private sector practices.

Eurozone governments estimate their debt according to the so-called Maastricht definition". The debt is taken at face value, meaning that a €100 liability is worth the same whether it needs to be repaid tomorrow or in 30 years time and regardless of the interest rate. Since the time-value-of-money and interest rates are ignored, Maastricht forces governments to book even a zero coupon bond at the principal amount due at maturity.

Why is this relevant to Greece? The reason is pretty simple. Eurozone governments have repeatedly agreed to lower the interest rate charged on their loans to Greece, as well as to extend their maturity. Conversely, they have insisted that the face value of the loans stayed the same. While these changes have undoubtedly made life easier for the Greek government, they do not show up in the Maastricht definition of Athens' debt, which only considers face value.

Japonica's estimates are based on a different system of accounting. This is the so-called International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS), the equivalent for governments of the International Finance Reporting Standards (IFRS) used by companies across the world. There are many ways in which IPSAS differs from the book-keeping rules used by governments across the EU: but for our purposes, it is worth noting that the calculation of debt moves beyond the simple face value of the liabilities, discounting it over time using market interest rates.
Wishful Thinking

I suggest it is pretty clear Greece cannot possibly pay back €256 billion even at 0% interest.

I admit I ignored potentially rising GDP. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Greece will not run current account surpluses for as long as it takes.

Moreover, government spending (debt) adds to GDP. How much is GDP supposed to rise in the absence of more government spending and more debt? For how long?

Japonica's calculations appear to be a combination of wishful thinking and talking one's book. Japonica also presumes patience by Greek citizens the last election proves does not exist.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Email From US Special Forces Veteran; 500 US Blackwater Mercenaries in Ukraine? US Backs Ukrainian Neo-Nazis

Posted: 27 Jan 2015 12:58 PM PST

US Special Forces in Ukraine?

In response to US Special Forces in Mariupol? I received an interesting email from "Dan" a 23-year Army veteran with four years in special services.

Dan writes ...
I was a soldier in the US Army for 23 years including four years in Special forces Stationed in Germany. I would agree that there is a strong likelihood that this is a US Special Forces soldier.

I can tell you that we were issued AK 74s and would use them on a mission such as this. That is about all I would really want to say at this point.

It is obvious to me that our strategy is the Balkanization of the various hot spots in the world, Syria, Ukraine, Iraq and so forth.

You can call me if you want I'd be happy to talk with you. All the Best
I did call Dan. We chatted a bit. He pointed out special fireproof gloves on the soldier.

I asked him about the rifles. Dan had high praise for them. "Exceptional" was the exact word. They  are widely distributed to special forces units in Europe.

Dan was "disgusted" with US operations stirring up trouble in numerous hotspots including Ukraine.

More English Speaking Soldiers in Mariupol

Over the weekend more videos of English speaking soldiers in Mariupol turned up. Around the 14:40 mark, talk is in English. This time it sounds British rather than US.



link if video does not play: Militants Fired On Mariupol

Translation of video title from Ukrainian

24.01 2015 бойовики обстріляли Маріуполь. Не дивитись людям зі слабкими нервами

24.01 2015 Militants fired on Mariupol. Not for the faint of heart.

Jacob Dreizin comments: "There is absolutely no way that any US or European company could send mercenaries to Mariupol without the knowledge and approval (tacitly or explicitly) of its host government.  So whether these are soldiers or "dogs of war" (mercenaries), it is a deliberate Western presence in Mariupol."

$100 Bill

Near the beginning of the video, there's a $100 dollar bill (or replica) hanging from the rear view mirror. What's that all about?





Brit Identified

I wrote the above yesterday. My accent detection appears to be correct.

The Daily Lede reports English Speaking Mercenary in Mariupol ID'd as Brit Leon Swampy From London, England.



I stopped the above video right at the 14:33 mark. Seems like a match.



AZOV Battalion Emblem



The preceding video was produced by AZOV. Their insignia is above. You can see it on soldier patches in the video.

Compare AZOV's emblem with the emblem of the Nazi 2nd SS Panzer Division Das Reich



AZOV Commander 

AZOV commander is Andriy Biletsy. Headquarters are in Mariupol.

Wikipedia has this to say about the AZOV Battalion.
Troops of the Azov Battalion use the Social-National Assembly (SNA) logo, an inverted Wolfsangel, a widely used symbol in Nazi Germany, on their banner, and some members are openly white supremacists or anti-Semites

In a 2010 essay, Biletsky set forth the ideology of the Social-National Assembly. "From the mass of individuals must arise the Nation; and from weak modern man, Superman... The historic mission of our Nation in this watershed century is to lead the White Races of the world in the final crusade for their survival: a crusade against semite-led subhumanity... The task of the present generation is to create a Third Empire -- Great Ukraine... If we are strong, we take what is ours by right and even more; we will build a Superpower-Empire..."

Foreign membership

In mid-July 2014, the BBC reported that the battalion had recruited the former Swedish Army and Swedish Home Guard sniper Mikael Skillt. Skillt, a Swedish white supremacist, joined the Azov Battalion for ideological reasons.

Ukrainian political scientist Anton Shekhotsov told the Swedes that four Swedish neo-Nazis were fighting with Azov, while the Swedish national police confirmed "several". Azov's leader, Biletsky, states that he has received recruits from Ireland, Italy, Greece and Scandinavia.

The Russian and Ukrainian security expert at New York University, Mark Galeotti, has described groups like the Azov Battalion as magnets attracting violent, fringe elements from around and outside Ukraine, warning that they will continue to play an outsized role in Ukrainian affairs after the war.
Azov with "SS" and Swastikas on Helmets

A news broadcast by German ZDF station on September 8 showed soldiers of the Ukraine Azov Battalion in Mariupol with Nazi symbols on their helmets.



Link if video does not play: AZOV Helmet Swastikas

"Ukraine's Neo-Nazis Demand Respect"

Robert Parry, the investigative reporter who broke many of the Iran-Contra stories for the Associated Press and Newsweek in the 1980s writes "Ukraine's Neo-Nazis Demand Respect".
Historians blame the UIA and other Ukrainian fascist forces for the extermination of thousands of Poles and Jews during World War II as these right-wing Ukrainian paramilitaries sided with the German Nazis in their fight against the Soviet Union's Red Army. Svoboda and the Right Sektor have elevated UIA leader Stepan Bandera to the level of a Ukrainian national hero.

But Svoboda and Right Sektor activists are not just neo-Nazi street protesters. They were key figures in last February's violent uprising that overthrew elected President Viktor Yanukovych and established a coup regime that the U.S. State Department quickly recognized as "legitimate." Many far-right militants have since been incorporated into the Ukrainian military in its fight to crush resistance to the coup regime from ethnic Russians in Ukraine's east.

Though played down by the Western press, the neo-Nazi affiliations of these militants have occasionally popped up in news stories, including references to displays of Nazi insignias, but usually these citations are mentioned only in passing or are confined to the last few paragraphs of lengthy stories or are dismissed as "Russian propaganda."

But this neo-Nazi reality continues to be an inconvenient truth about the U.S.-backed coup regime that seized power in Kiev with the overthrow of Yanukovych on Feb. 22. Several government ministries, including national security, were given to these far-right elements in recognition of their key role in the putsch that forced members of Yanukovych's government to flee for their lives.
German Consultant Says 500 Blackwater US Mercenaries in Ukraine

Please consider this German news story from January 23, 2015: 500 US Blackwater Mercenaries in Ukraine
German political and business consultant Michael Lüders in an interview with the TV channel Phoenix made this allegation: There are 500 mercenaries in Ukraine, all trained experts, requisitioned in cooperation between the United States and Ukraine.

So we not only have Russians who are fighting on the side of the separatists, but also US mercenaries on the part of the government. This is a dangerous trend, and an unhealthy development. For it is quite clear that an escalation is possible. This conflict can spiral out of control when the Russian side or when the Ukrainian side believes there is a certain winner.

The security firm Blackwater, also called Academi, is known for its top-secret orders in war zones. The units are perfectly trained and mostly ex-US military with high-level combat experience. At the same time they are themselves and their corporate boardroom closely intertwined with US military circles and even the presidential administration.
If you can understand German, here is a link to the Michael Lüders Interview on the German Phoenix TV station.

Ukrainian Foreign Legion

Yesterday, the Financial Time reported Nato Accuses Russia Over Worsening Ukrainian Crisis

Russian president Vladimir Putin responded "We often talk about the Ukrainian army . . . In fact this is not an army, it is a foreign legion, in this case a Nato foreign legion which, of course, does not follow the national interests of Ukraine."

Ukrainian Military Transport Loading Tanks



I am told this is a recent (within past few days) image of the Ukrainian "Antonov Airlines" An-225 cargo plane picking up surplus Soviet-era tanks at the Prague airport for transfer to Ukrainian forces.

I cannot verify the date, location, or source of the above image, but certainly the plane is correct. It's the only one ever built. Anyone in Prague care to confirm?

From Wikipedia ...
The An-225's name, Mriya (Мрiя) means "Dream" (Inspiration) in Ukrainian. It is powered by six turbofan engines and is the longest and heaviest airplane ever built, with a maximum takeoff weight of 640 tonnes. It also has the largest wingspan of any aircraft in operational service. The first and only built has the Ukrainian civil registration UR-82060. The airlifter holds the absolute world records for an airlifted single item payload of 189,980 kilograms (418,834 pounds).
Disinformation and Outright Lies

Without a doubt, some Russian-made military equipment is in Ukraine in rebel hands. Ukraine also has Russian-made equipment. Some of the rebel equipment was captured from Ukraine, and some came in from Russia.

How much military equipment is directly from Russia since the start of the war? I do not know.

I do know that Ukraine's claim the rebels have 500 Russian tanks is ridiculous. You cannot hide 500 tanks. Claims of 15,000 Russian regular soldiers in Ukraine are also ridiculous.

How many are there? I don't know. Could there be 500 Russian "trainers"? Sure, why not?

The US has "trainers" in Ukraine as well. How many? I don't know that either. Could it be as many as 500? Sure? Why not?

If you wish to change the word "trainers" to sponsored "mercenaries", fine, as long as you do it for both sides.

There are many Russians living in Ukraine. That does not make them "Russian regulars", no matter how many times it is presented that way by Western media.

Blowback

I wrote about blowback recently in Russia Under Attack: Letter from CEO of Genoil to CEO of JPMorgan Chase on US Foreign Policy Blowback.

If you missed it, please take a look.

The Guardian proposes (and I agree) Wrecking Russia's Economy Could be a Disaster for the West.

"It's sheer folly to hope that the country is destabilised and Vladimir Putin overthrown. We've no idea what the outcome would be" says Guardian author Angus Roxburgh.

An Incomplete History of US Foreign Policy Disasters

  • War reparations imposed by the allies gave way to German hyperinflation and the rise of Hitler.
  • In 1953 the US and UK orchestrated the Iranian coup d'état in an operation called "Operation Boot" in the UK and the "TPAJAX Project" in the US. This in turn led to the US backed Shah of Iran overthrown in 1979. In August 2013, 60 years after, the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) admitted that it was involved in both the planning and the execution of the coup, including the bribing of Iranian politicians, security and army high-ranking officials, as well as pro-coup propaganda. The CIA is quoted acknowledging the coup was carried out "under CIA direction" and "as an act of U.S. foreign policy, conceived and approved at the highest levels of government."
  • The War in Vietnam started with an outright lie from president Lyndon B. Johnson regarding the Gulf of Tonkin Incident. A document declassified in 2005 shows the US fired first, on North Vietnam. In a second episode, the US fired on "Tonkin ghosts" (false radar images) and not actual torpedo boats as claimed.
  • It's pretty clear the US helped foment the overthrow of Ukraine's president Viktor Yanukovych, but the US will probably will not admit that for another 30 years.
  • Bush's lies led us to invade Iraq with disastrous consequences including the evolution of ISIS.
  • Finally, Bin Laden's number one reason for the attack on the US was because the US had troops on sacred Arab soil.

Avoiding the Mess

Why are we in Ukraine at all? The answer is we backed a corrupt pack of neo-Nazis that helped overthrow a government the US decided was too friendly to Russia.

When we did not like the blowback, we put sanctions on Russia. And those sanctions harm Europe as much as Russia.

None of this means one has to like Putin. I don't, but I get accused of it, simply because I look at both sides of the story while most believe lies spoon-fed to them by Western media.

All we had to do to avoid this mess was not get involved in the overthrow, then had it happened anyway, encouraged a solution at the ballot box rather than siding with the new corrupt regime.

No Cost to Great

I have a very close friend who thinks this "Russian invasion cannot be allowed to stand at any cost".

Such ideology sounds like the discredited Vietnam War "domino" theory all over again. My friend was against that war, but fails to see this is more of the same "last stand" nonsense.

Note that "any cost" might mean outright war with nuclear-armed Russia over a meaningless patch of land. How asinine is that?

Ironies Abound

The first irony is that Ukraine is not really a single country in the first place. Its boundaries were arbitrarily created with no regard to religion, culture, and language.

A natural split that could have and should have been decided by vote (if only the US went along), is now being decided by war. Supposedly, we need to put "humpty dumpty" back together again at any cost, presumably even nuclear war.

For what?

Putin is not Hitler attempting to conquer the world with a "final solution". Rather Russia has genuine fears and concerns about NATO on its doorstep. Russia has been invaded multiple times by other European countries.

And the second major irony of it all is the US openly supports a bunch of white supremacist neo-Nazis whose leader stated in 2010 "The historic mission of our Nation in this watershed century is to lead the White Races of the world in the final crusade for their survival: a crusade against semite-led subhumanity."

Ukraine Freedom Act

In December, President Obama signed the Ukraine Freedom Support Act giving Ukraine $350 million.

Meet Your US-Backed Neo-Nazis




Here is the source of the above AZOV image.

The site Ukraine at War claims the flag was edited in. I blew the image up 400% looking for artifacts around the flag and the hand holding it. If it was edited in, then it was a professional job.

The image appears on the website of Oleg Pyenya (a person in the picture). Oleg has many pictures giving the Nazi salute (and he is not even the one giving the Nazi salute in the picture!)

Oleg is the guy holding the Nazi flag with his fingers. I believe there is roughly a zero percent likelihood that Oleg or anyone in his group was capable of perfect Photoshop editing. Somehow we are supposed to believe Russia did, gave it to Oleg, then he placed it on his site.

US Hypocrisy

Fake or not, it is 100% clear what AZOV commander, Andriy Biletsy, and his group of thugs stands for. Also it's important to note that Biletsy has been commended and awarded by Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko.

Thus, it's equally clear that your tax dollars support neo-Nazis and white-supremists in yet another example of US hypocrisy and the idiocy of the policy "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Swiss Franc Yield Curve Negative for 12 Years; Bond Crash - Austrian Bank Raiffeisen; Another One Bites the Dust

Posted: 27 Jan 2015 10:24 AM PST

The casualties continue to pile up in the wake of the Swiss National Bank dropping its peg to the euro.

(See Rabbit Hole Intervention Fails: Wild Moves in Swiss Franc as Switzerland Abandons Euro Peg; Morals of the Story).

The first moral of the story was "Don't borrow money in other currencies, especially long-term mortgages."

The same applies to lenders. And banks that lent money in unhedged Swiss francs to customers in Poland, Hungary or elsewhere now finds collection difficult.

Austrian bank Raiffeisen is in deep trouble doing just that.

Austrian Bank Raiffeisen's Bonds Crash

Bloomberg reports Raiffeisen Debt Signaling Distress as Currency Woes Mount
Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI)'s junior bonds slumped to levels typically viewed as distressed after gains in the Swiss franc added to woes triggered by the tumble in the Russian and Ukrainian currencies.

Subordinated bonds sold by the Vienna-based lender slid as low as 63.4 cents on the euro, with yields of as much as 10 percent, after trading at 91 cents at the start of December, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Investors are concerned because European Union rules forcing losses on junior bondholders before banks can get state aid came into force in Austria on Jan. 1. The government has injected about 8.1 billion euros into three banks in the past six years and guarantees on bonds of stricken Hypo Alpe Adria Bank were revoked to avoid a taxpayer-funded bailout.

Raiffeisen had a total of 4.3 billion euros of Swiss franc loans outstanding as of September 2014, according to estimates by Moody's Investors Service. The largest part of these are in Poland, where the franc has appreciated 17 percent against the zloty since Jan. 14, threatening to push up defaults on the bank's 2.9 billion euros of mortgages in the Swiss currency.
Ruble Losses

Interestingly, Raiffeisen is also the third-biggest foreign bank in Russia after Societe Generale SA  and UniCredit SpA.

Losses on the Ruble don't exactly help either to say the least.

Swiss Franc Yield Curve



Privelege of Lending

In Switzerland, you can pay the Swiss government for the privilege of lending to it for any time period up to 12 years.

Swiss 3-month bonds yield -1.30%. Two year bonds yield -1% or so. Amazing.

Chart courtesy of Bloomberg and Saxo Bank economist Steen Jakobsen.

Morals of the Story Recap

  1. Don't borrow (or lend) money in other currencies, especially long-term mortgages.
  2. Don't expect currency interventions to work forever.
  3. Don't believe statements made by central bankers. They are not the economic wizards they are made out to be, and they often lie when it suits their purpose.
  4. It only takes one wrong macro bet with leverage to make a fortune or wipe you out.
  5. When you are speculating with other people's money, especially when you take in a 20% performance fee, there is a huge incentive to make leveraged bets.

Another One Bites the Dust

In honor of all those who were wiped out (or nearly so) in the peg removal, I offer this musical tribute.



Link if video does not play: Queen - Another One Bites the Dust

For further discussion, please see ....


Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com