Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Fed Study Shows "Persistent Fed Overoptimism about Economic Growth"; What Will They Do About It?
• Diving Into the ISM: What's It All Mean?
• Total Construction Spending Weaker Than Expected; Residential Construction Spending in Contraction
• Debt of Six Eurozone Countries Exceeds 100% of GDP, Two More Coming in 2015 (France and Spain)
• Four Trade War Questions; PMI Reports; Currency Manipulation Charges

Fed Study Shows "Persistent Fed Overoptimism about Economic Growth"; What Will They Do About It? Posted: 02 Feb 2015 06:06 PM PST Since 2007 nearly every Fed economic forecast has been on the optimistic side. In an attempt to explain, a new Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco dives into the Persistent Overoptimism about Economic Growth. My friend "BC" commented "It has taken 7-8 years for Fed economists to get around to this brilliant insight." I provide the real reasons following this excerpt from the report ... Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee participants have been persistently too optimistic about future U.S. economic growth. Real GDP growth forecasts have typically started high, but then are revised down over time as the incoming data continue to disappoint. Possible explanations for this pattern include missed warning signals about the buildup of imbalances before the crisis, overestimation of the efficacy of monetary policy following a balance-sheet recession, and the natural tendency of forecasters to extrapolate from recent data. Explaining the persistent overoptimism Economic forecasting can be a humbling endeavor. In a cross-country study of private-sector forecasts from 1989 to 1998, Loungani (2001) finds that "the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished." He also finds that forecast revisions in one direction tend to be followed by further revisions in the same direction and that one-year-ahead growth forecasts are typically too optimistic. Implications for economic models Research has identified numerous instances of persistent bias in the track records of professional forecasters. These findings apply not only to forecasts of growth, but also of inflation and unemployment (Coibion and Gorodnichencko 2012). Overall, the evidence raises doubts about the theory of "rational expectations." This theory, which is the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics, assumes that peoples' forecasts exhibit no systematic bias towards optimism or pessimism. Allowing for departures from rational expectations in economic models would be a way to more accurately capture features of real-world behavior An updated study by Ahir and Loungani (2014) finds that the private-sector's record of failure to predict recessions remained intact through 2008 and 2009. A study by Alessi, et al. (2014) finds that one-year-ahead growth forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the European Central Bank from 2008 to 2012 exhibited substantial overoptimism, averaging 1.6 to 2.4 percentage points above actual growth. The SEP growth forecasts fit the pattern of these various studies. What Will They Do About It? That question is easy to answer: absolutely nothing. There is a systemic bias towards optimism from economists in general, not just central banks. I have mentioned that numerous times in recent years, even after it was long understood the recession of 2007-2009 was a balance-sheet recession. For example, on January 6, I noted Economists Upbeat Despite 4th Consecutive Decline in Factory Orders; Auto Orders vs. Expectations. Economists are among the most optimistic groups on the planet. Year in, year out they project improvements in growth. So today, despite 4th Consecutive Decline in Factory Orders, it's no surprise that economists remain optimistic. Private Pep Rally On January 29, Fed Chair Janet Yellen met with Senate Democrats at a private luncheon. She told the Democrats that the U.S. Economy is Strong. "She went through the issues of unemployment and inflation. Very positive. And economic growth numbers were good, have been good. There's work to be done," Sen. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) said after the luncheon. Could the Fed be rear-view mirror forecasting once again? I think so. Third quarter GDP rebounded strongly, so Yellen did what economists do, project strength into the future. Somehow this tendency is one-sided. Economists seldom project weakness the same way. Diving Into the Details On January 31, I went Diving Into the 4th Quarter GDP Report and noticed some ominous trends. On February 1, I made a pretty bold statement Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015. Today, I noted Total Construction Spending Weaker Than Expected; Residential Construction Spending in Contraction. Also today, but something I did not comment on, U.S. Consumer Spending in December Weakest Since 2009. U.S. consumer spending recorded its biggest decline since late 2009 in December with households saving the extra cash from cheaper gasoline. Other data on Monday showed factory activity cooled in January, suggesting the economy may have entered the new year on a slightly softer footing than had been expected. Nevertheless, upbeat and cash-flush consumers are expected to step-up spending and buoy the economy this year. "The consumer is poised to do well in early 2015. Lower gasoline prices are going to provide a big lift to consumption," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Reasons for Optimism Missed warning signals about the buildup of imbalances before the crisis Overestimation of the efficacy of monetary policy following a balance-sheet recession Natural tendency of forecasters to extrapolate from recent data.  Comment on Reason #1 Bernanke like Greenspan could not see the obvious. This is a general statement. Buildup of imbalances has nothing to do with it. Neither Greenspan nor Bernanke could spot bubbles. Janet Yellen right now is virtually blind as a bat. She cannot see the bubbles in bonds and equities the Fed created. When those bubbles burst, the slowdown should smack some sense into the Fed, but it won't. Moreover, the bigger this equity bubble gets, the bigger the crash. The Fed cannot see that either. Comment on Reason #2 These arrogant fools actually believe they are economic wizards who can steer the economy like a truck on a highway. The idea that central banks can set interest rates is as faulty as Russian central planners can correctly set the price of oranges. But that's what they believe. Comment on Reason #3 They are extrapolating 3rd quarter GDP into the future again right now. They miss the bond and equity bubbles, factory orders, and countless other things. All strong reports are thought to be representative. All weak reports are deemed to be a "soft patch". Judging from the "strong economy" statement of Yellen, the Fed seems to believe the US will "decouple" from the clearly slowing global economy. It has for a while, but it cannot last. Too Much Fail in Models Here is the first of two bonus reasons to help explain overoptimism: The Fed (economists in general) have far too much faith in economic models and far too little common sense. The economy cannot be driven like a truck. Fat tails appear far more than theory suggests. Why? Because many widely-held theories are complete nonsense. Anyone recall the widespread belief people would not walk away from their homes? And what about the idiotic Keynesian theory that recessions and inflation could not happen at the same time. Economists widely believed that bit of nonsense. Yet, instead of abandoning Keynesian theories, they went further down the rabbit hole to explain things. System Runs on Lies Here's a final bonus explanation the San Francisco Fed failed to mention: Good news sells. People do not like the truth. They would rather hear lies. And the Fed is willing to provide lies, especially in difficult times. The entire system runs on lies such as Pro-forma data Beat-the-street nonsense where corporations provide analysts with numbers the corporations know they can beat by a penny Analysts are more than willing to downgrade expectations to help corporations beat-the-street When it Becomes Serious The Fed does not want an audit? What pray tell does it have to hide? European politician Jean Claude Juncker summed it up nicely: "When it becomes serious, you have to lie". And so the Fed does. Sometimes, as a matter of arrogant belief in their own wizardry, they even start to believe the lies they tell. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Diving Into the ISM: What's It All Mean? Posted: 02 Feb 2015 02:09 PM PST This morning the Institute for Supply Management released its much followed Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. Index Jan Dec PP Change Direction Rate of Change Trend in Months PMI® 53.5 55.5 -1.6 Growing Slower 20 New Orders 52.9 57.8 -4.9 Growing Slower 20 Production 56.5 57.7 -1.2 growing Slower 11 Employment 54.1 56.0 -1.9 Growing Slower 19 Supplier Deliveries 52.9 58.6 -5.7 Slowing Slower 20 Inventories 51.0 45.5 5.5 Growing From Contracting 1 Customers' Inventories 42.5 44.5 -2.0 Too Low Faster 2 Prices 35.0 38.5 -3.5 Decreasing Faster 3 Backlog of Orders 46.0 52.5 -6.5 Contracting From Growing 1 Exports 49.5 52.0 -2.5 Contracting From Growing 1 Imports 55.5 55.0 0.5 Growing Faster 24 What's It Mean? The PMI is a diffusion index. Numbers above 50 indicate expansion, numbers below 50 indicate contraction. A key problem with diffusion indices is the size of the company does not matter.  For example, a chemical company with 300 employees carries the same weight as an auto manufacturer with 200,000 employees. Moreover, there are some peculiarities with the break-even number of 50. The ISM says A PMI® in excess of 43.1 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the January PMI® indicates growth for the 68th consecutive month in the overall economy, and indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 20th consecutive month. Holcomb stated, "The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the PMI® for January (53.5 percent) corresponds to a 3.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis." Thus, a manufacturing PMI above or below 50, does not imply similar overall economic activity as one might expect. Also, month-to-month changes show a lot a variances so it's important to look at trends over a longer period of time. Manufacturing ISM Historical The NBER (the historical arbiter of when recessions start and end) says a US recession began in November of 1973. The Manufacturing ISM was 68.1 at the time. The above chart also shows some recessions began with the manufacturing PMI in negative territory. In isolation, the PMI itself does not say a lot. One needs to incorporate other data. Manufacturing ISM Percent Change From Year Ago Upturns from deeply negative tend to end recessions (purple circles), but spikes below the zero-growth tend line don't necessarily mean anything. There were 10 occasions since 1950 in which the year-over-year growth of manufacturing PMI sunk to -20% that were not associated with a recession. On the other hand, the chart shows that recessions generally start with the PMI near the zero-growth line. In those occasions where recessions started with PMIs well above 50, the PMI quickly crashed into negative territory. Manufacturing ISM Percent Change From Year Ago Detail Far too much reliance is given to these indicators, even though flirting around the zero-line is generally not associated with high growth. The Manufacturing ISM is now at a spot where recessions frequently begin. Yet, far more often than not, recessions do not begin at this spot. Nonetheless, please note the weakening trends in the table at the top. Exports are slowing Imports are up Prices falling rapidly Backlog of orders in contraction Growth slowing nearly everywhere Customer inventories rising None of those imply strong growth. The ISM says today's report "corresponds to a 3.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis". I will take the under for numerous reasons stated previously. For more GDP look-ahead analysis, please see ... January 31: Diving Into the GDP Report - Some Ominous Trends - Yellen Yap - Decoupling or Not?   February 02: Total Construction Spending Weaker Than Expected; Residential Construction Spending in Contraction   February 02: Four Trade War Questions; PMI Reports; Currency Manipulation Charges Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Total Construction Spending Weaker Than Expected; Residential Construction Spending in Contraction Posted: 02 Feb 2015 11:22 AM PST Construction spending for December was weaker than expected. Lots of reports recently have been "weaker than expected". From Bloomberg. Highlights Construction outlays rebounded 0.4 percent in December after dipping 0.2 percent the month before. December was below market expectations which were for a 0.6 percent gain. December's increase was led by public outlays which rebounded 1.1 percent after dropping 1.8 percent jump in November. Private residential spending rose 0.3 percent after edging up 0.1 percent in November. Private nonresidential construction spending eased 0.2 percent in December after a 0.8 percent rise the month before. On a year-ago basis, total outlays were up 2.2 percent in December compared to 2.7 percent in November. Recent History Of This Indicator Construction spending slipped 0.3 percent in November after a sharp 1.2 percent rebound in October. Market expectations were for a 0.5 percent gain. November's decrease was led by public outlays which fell 1.7 percent after a 2.8 percent jump in October. Private residential spending rose 0.9 percent, matching the pace the month before. Private nonresidential construction spending dipped 0.3 percent in November after edging up 0.1 percent in October. Total Construction Spending Percent Change From Year Ago click on any chart for sharper image This is another trend that looks ominous. Year-over-year growth in total construction spending has fallen from 8% in February of 2014 to 2% in December. Commercial Construction Spending Percent Change From Year Ago Residential Construction Spending Percent Change From Year Ago Residential construction spending will be a net contraction from 1st quarter GDP unless the trend reverses soon. But why should it? And if residential drops deep enough, total construction spending will subtract from 1st quarter GDP. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Debt of Six Eurozone Countries Exceeds 100% of GDP, Two More Coming in 2015 (France and Spain) Posted: 02 Feb 2015 10:48 AM PST In 2014 there were six eurozone countries whose debt-to-GDP ratio went over the 100% threshold. Two additional countries will pass that barrier in 2015. The Maastricht Treaty on which the euro was founded was designed to keep "sound fiscal policies", with debt limited to 60% of GDP (not 100%), and annual deficits no greater than 3% of GDP." Every country in the eurozone, including Germany, has been in violation of those rules. Let's take a look at the biggest violators as reported by El Economista. Data is from second quarter of 2014 (undoubtedly worse now). 100% Debt-to-GDP List Italy 133% Portugal 129.4% Ireland 116.7% Cyprus 112.2% Belgium 105.1% Greece 174.9% Spain 100.3% (2015 estimate) France 100% (2015 estimate) In regards to France, Laurent Bigorgne, director of the Institut Montaigne, predict that French liabilities will not stabilize, but will continue to progress." That certainly seems like a very safe prediction. Wild Blue Yonder And as debts soar off into the wild blue yonder, the need to keep interest rates at 0% to perpetually mask the problem increases. I offer this musical tribute to celebrate the Keynesian policies that perpetuate wild blue yonder government spending and absurd central bank policies. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Four Trade War Questions; PMI Reports; Currency Manipulation Charges Posted: 01 Feb 2015 11:47 PM PST With the declining yen, Japan's manufacturing PMI has risen eight months. In contrast, China has been wavering near the stagnation line since early 2011. Trade war questions relate to the just-released PMI reports and also the 4th quarter US GDP report. Let's start with today's PMI releases on China and Japan. HSBC China Manufacturing PMI The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI shows Chinese Operating Conditions Deteriorate Fractionally in January. Chinese manufacturers saw a fractional deterioration in operating conditions at the start of 2015. Although output rose slightly and new orders broadly stabilised, staffing levels were cut for the fifteenth successive month. Meanwhile, relatively subdued client demand led companies to reduce their stock holdings of both post and pre-production goods in January. On the costs front, lower raw material prices led to the steepest reduction in average input costs since March 2009, which contributed to a sharp decline in prices charged. After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) posted at 49.7 in January, down slightly from the earlier flash reading (49.8), but up fractionally from 49.6 in December. This signalled a second successive monthly deterioration in the health of the sector, albeit only slight. Latest data indicated a renewed expansion of Chinese manufacturing output in January, though the rate of increase was only fractional. This was the first time that production has risen in three months. Manufacturing companies reduced their headcounts again in January. That said, the rate of job shedding was the weakest recorded in 15 months and only slight. China Manufacturing PMI Index China's manufacturing PMI has been flirting just above and just below the stagnation line since early 2011. More time has been spent in contraction than expansion in that period. Japan Posts "Solid" Growth In contrast to China, the Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI shows solid production growth at start of 2015. Key Points Headline PMI posts above 50.0 for eighth month running Further increases in output and new orders Inflationary pressures remain amid reports of yen depreciation Summary Data at the start of 2015 signalled a solid improvement in operating conditions in the Japanese manufacturing sector. Production growth continued for the sixth month running, supported by a further rise in new orders. Subsequently, payroll numbers remained in growth territory, with the latest expansion broadly in-line with the previous month. Meanwhile, upward pressures on both input and output prices remained. The headline PMI posted at 52.2 in January, little changed from 52.0 in December and above the 50.0 no-change mark for the eight month running, thereby signalling sustained growth in the Japanese manufacturing sector at the start of 2015. Panellists attributed the latest increase to a combination of improved advertising, stronger demand conditions and the launching of new products. Similarly, new orders from abroad rose in January. Japan Manufacturing PMI Four Trade War Questions How long will China let Japan debase the Yen without a response? How long before US manufacturers whine about loss of exports? Will exports add to or subtract from US GDP next quarter? Will the US economy decouple from the global economy? 1A. China will not let Japan (and increasingly Europe) get the upper hand forever. China will soon take strong action to reduce the value of the yuan. 2A.  Manufacturers will start whining loudly if they are not already. Expect to see currency manipulation charges in the news again soon. Those charges will escalate as soon as China responds to Bank of Japan and ECB moves to reduce the value of the yen and euro. 3A. Subtract. Not only are US exports getting more expensive relative to Europe and Japan, the entire rest of the global economy is slowing rapidly. Our biggest trading partner is Canada, and Canada is in recession, with a rapidly sinking Canadian dollar on top of it. (See Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015) 4A. No. The US will not decouple as economists assume. Diving Into the GDP Report - Some Ominous Trends I addressed questions three and four in more detail in my Saturday, January 31 post: Diving Into the GDP Report - Some Ominous Trends - Yellen Yap - Decoupling or Not? There's much more analysis of autos, imports, inventories, and other US GDP factors in the above link, including a discussion of US recession possibilities. Please give it a look if you missed it. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com  Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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All These Snaps And You Still Won't Chat Posted: 02 Feb 2015 10:00 AM PST via imgur

This Pitbull-Dachshund Crossbreed Rami Posted: 02 Feb 2015 09:30 AM PST Rami the dog is a cross between a pitbull and a dachshund. Hw is being offered for adoption by the Moultrie Colquitt County Humane Society in the state of Georgia in the U.S. via facebook

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How to Approach Owned and Earned Media - Moz Blog

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How to Approach Owned and Earned Media Posted on: Monday 02 February 2015 — 00:16 Posted by SamuelScott This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of Moz, Inc. Image: Flickr user nickrate We all know content is king, but if your content marketing plan consists of blindly publishing daily blog posts on your website or submitting countless bylined articles (i.e., guest posts) to random outlets, your king will turn into the court jester. Marketing must have a sound strategy behind it to be successful. To help the Moz community maximize the return on investment of their content, I want to share a strategy I used in my prior position as a senior director at a global agency, and continue to use as a digital marketing and communications consultant. What is content, exactly? First, it is important to know that content is not simply something used to get links. As I explained in a Mozinar and a subsequent blog post on integrating digital marketing and public relations, content is essential to any business's overall marketing and communications strategy. Its functions include:  Goal Identification Audience Research Messaging and Positioning Channel Research Content Creation Campaign Execution Measuring Results To use an example from the earlier post:  A sender decides upon a message. The message is packaged into a piece of content. The content is transmitted via a desired channel. The channel delivers the content to the receiver. Marketing is essentially sending a message that is packaged as a piece of content to a receiver via a channel. Content is merely the vehicle that contains a desired marketing message that is then transmitted via a channel to an audience. The big idea In case you haven't heard, the newest thing is for brands to become publishers that create content. While I was visiting SMX West in 2014, I heard this wonderful talk from Brian Clark of Copyblogger (see the SlideShare here): The core message: Brands that become online media companies will dominate the Internet Age. One of Clark's examples: Netflix went from merely distributing content (in the form of TV shows and movies) to creating content. The strategy makes sense because the more content brands produce, the more likely it is that their content will be shared on social media, the more brand awareness they will generate and the more chances there are for the content to garner links. In the end, the act of becoming a media company is a way to increase overall online engagement, which is an important ranking factor many SEOs are neglecting. As more and more brands become publishers, marketers have more and more places to publish. However, we cannot effectively target all of these places, especially when our own websites need content. The key is to develop a strategic approach to content marketing. The different types of content In general, there is owned media and earned media. (There is also paid media, but that mainly refers to paying to get earned content placement on a website.) Owned media is content you publish on outlets you own (e.g., your website) Earned media is content other outlets freely give you (e.g., bylined articles and news coverage) Here is the central question I wish to address: When should you use owned versus owned media? In other words: Say you create a great piece of content. When should you publish it on your website and when should you publish it somewhere else? Owned and earned media have their benefits and drawbacks. For an in-depth look on online branding and the different types of media, I invite you to read this detailed essay by Will Critchlow on Moz. Why you should use owned media You will own the content forever. If you publish, say, a blog post on your company website, then you will own and have access to that document for as long as you own your website. However, you have no guarantee of how long your content will remain on another website. Your website can rank in the search engines. Why should another website receive the search benefits of your hard work? If I write an e-book that targets a keyword theme addressing informational queries, I want my website to rank for those search terms for the foreseeable future to generate top-of-the-funnel awareness. It enhances brand building. The more you pub­lish (and promote), the more your brand authority will grow over time as the content gets traf­fic, news coverage, men­tions, and ­links.  Why you should use earned media You can use someone else's audience. A bylined article or news coverage about you on a website or publication read by 100,000 people provides invaluable exposure. You can earn links. As Jen Lopez explained here, you should not be submitting countless, short guest posts to random websites to get links. A targeted post on a respected website can gain numerous links for your brand.  You can likely build brand awareness more quickly. Building a brand on your own can take a long time, especially if you are a new business or startup with few readers and social followers. At my prior agency, we got an unknown CEO interviewed or published in what the public relations industry refers to as "Tier 3 outlets." Then, we took those interviews to "Tier 2 outlets" as proof that he was an influencer worthy to quote or be published in their outlets. From there we went to "Tier 1 outlets" for coverage. This had a tremendous positive impact for the business overall.  How to decide? Image: Flickr user ralphpaglia Obviously, there are benefits to using both owned and earned media. But a lot of the time, a single piece of content can only be used in one or the other channel. (See the last part of this article for important exceptions!)  Here is the rule I use for both clients and for myself: Owned media is used for your long-term mar­ket­ing goals. Earned media is used for your short-term mar­ket­ing goals. Now, graphic design is not one of my strong points (I'm personally more of a writer), but I've created a simple guide to illustrate that rule: Here are some specific examples I've seen and used: Owned media Is it an attempt to rank highly in search results for a certain keyword theme over time? An example would be an essay that addresses a pain point your target customers have, one they would attempt to address by searching Google. At my prior agency, I wrote a guide to international SEO a few years ago. Last I checked, the agency still ranked in the top four for searches relating to "international SEO strategy" because of that document. Is it part of your sales funnel? Perhaps the sidebar of your website includes a call-to-action to download an e-book. Of course, people would have to provide an e-mail address, and the e-book could contain links to product pages and sales representatives. Earned media Is it meant to introduce and/or brand yourself to a targeted audience? A client at my prior agency was a mobile advertising network. We had gotten bylined opinion articles for the CEO on major websites that are all about mobile devices and Internet advertising. Over time, the CEO received more and more attention from larger and larger publications, which helped his personal brand and that of the company's as well. (This is the real reason for so-called guest posting.) Is it meant to generate more immediate sales and/or social media followers? If your company is in a B2B industry, for example, then LinkedIn is an obvious platform on which to publish. By posting on LinkedIn Pulse, you can get more followers of the author's profile (see an important thought below on company versus individual branding) business connections, leads, and thought leadership. Internal content strategy for companies Image: Flickr user fletcherprince With LinkedIn, internal branding decisions need to be made because the platform allows only individuals to publish content. So, if your business has a great piece of content for a B2B audience for LinkedIn Pulse or another similar outlet, you must decide who publishes it. Here's a brief outline of the strategy I recommend: Determine who can or should represent the company in some public capacity Decide what specific area each person will focus on based on his or her interests and expertise Determine who should produce the content As a hypothetical example, imagine a startup has a mobile app that helps companies create and manage online communities. Here is how duties could be divided up:  The CEO would discuss topics that relate to founding and running a high-tech startup The vice president of products would focus on technology and cater his discussions to such matters The vice president of marketing would write and speak about community management It's crucial that your business divides content and PR duties among the senior staff. Plus, if multiple people are representing the company, there's greater potential for coverage and exposure. How to combine owned and earned media Of course, a lot of your content might not fit neatly into one of the two buckets above. You don't always have to choose one or the other. The important point to understand is every third-party publisher is different and has its own rules. It's crucial to know them so that you do not violate their policies and thereby risk losing the resulting exposure. When you cannot republish earned media Moz has a rule that contributors cannot republish posts on their own websites. So, whenever I publish an article here, I do the following: Publish a post on my blog with an excerpt (usually the first paragraph or two) with a call-to-action to visit  Moz for the full article Set the post on my blog to no-index and the canonical URL to that of the Moz post If someone clicks the Twitter share widget on the specific post on my website, the share dialogue uses the canonical URL (to Moz) This way, we both benefit. Moz gets the due credit (from Google and more), and my blog's subscribers see that I have published the article (on Moz). I would use this strategy when publishing content on third-party networks that do not allow republishing. When you can republish earned media LinkedIn Pulse, for example, allows anyone to publish a lengthy essay, and the website seems to use a combination of algorithms and human editors to decide which essays to promote on specific channels (such as Marketing Strategy or Social Media) and on the website's homepage. While LinkedIn does allow you to publish content that has already been published elsewhere, the brand tends to more actively promote original content. Here's what I do to maximize the benefits from LinkedIn Pulse: I publish the content on my personal blog Then I immediately post the content to Google+ Both of those actions "tell" Google that my website was the original publisher (see this post by Cyrus Shepard on how quickly Google indexes content that is posted to Google+) After about 15 to 30 minutes, I post the content to LinkedIn Pulse LinkedIn is more likely to promote the content then because it is not yet detectable in Google's SERPs Here is just one example of an essay I published on my website and on LinkedIn—my website gets the credit in Google search and Google News. LinkedIn also promoted the post to thousands of users: Images: Personal screenshots This strategy can be used to your advantage. If you publish content on a third-party website, you might be able to convince them to set a canonical tag to your original post on your website.  Note: the rel=canonical tag is only a suggestion to Google. If another website publishes a post with a canonical tag to your website, the search engine may still choose to make that website the authoritative copy. I would also add a text link somewhere in the body of the post with wording such as "Originally published...". Matt Cutts has also recommended that the tag be placed as close to the top of section of code as possible. But even in cases where the canonical tag is not an option, you can still publish the same content in multiple locations, provided one of several provisions is in place.  The main takeaway The content marketing strategy for your own website (owned media) should focus on organic search and your sales funnel. The content marketing strategy for publishing and getting coverage elsewhere (earned media) should focus on your public relations and publicity goals (see my Moz essay on the basic principles of PR). Both inbound and outbound marketing are crucial in any overall marketing strategy. Strategic deployment is the key.  Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

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Seth's Blog : The productivity pyramid (give yourself a promotion)

The productivity pyramid (give yourself a promotion)

Productivity is a measure of output over time. All other things being equal, the more you produce per minute, the more productive you are. And economists understand that wealth (for a company or a community) is based on increasing productivity.

The simplest way to boost productivity is to get better at the task that has been assigned to you. To work harder, and with more skill.

The next step up is to find people who are cheaper than you to do those assigned tasks. The theory of the firm is that people working together can get more done, faster.

The next step up is to invest in existing technology that can boost your team's output. Buying a copier will significantly increase your output if you're used to handwriting each copy of the memo you've been assigned.

The step after that? Invent a new technology. Huge leaps in value creation come to those that find the next innovation.

The final step, the one that that eludes so many of us: Figure out better things to work on. Make your own list, don't merely react to someone else's.

It turns out that the most productive thing we can do is to stop working on someone else's task list and figure out a more useful contribution instead. This is what separates great organizations from good ones, and extraordinary careers from frustrated ones.

The challenge is that the final step requires a short-term hit to your productivity. But, if you fail to invest the time and effort to find a better path, it's unlikely you'll find one.

       

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Cyborg Silliness; No Glory in Stupidity; If Jackasses Could Think Posted: 01 Feb 2015 06:35 PM PST On January 18, in Graves Waiting For Bodies: Major War Escalation in Ukraine; In 5 Weeks Ukraine Out of Money I noted the rebels captured the airport at Donetsk. Donetsk Airport Battle is Over Dreizin also informs me that "The battle for the Donetsk airport is over. The rebels expelled Ukraine's most elite units from their last redoubts in the new terminal building." Also on January 18, Reuters reported Ukrainian Troops Retake Most of Donetsk Airport From Rebels. Ukrainian troops recaptured almost all the territory of Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine they had lost to separatists in recent weeks, as thousands gathered in Kiev for a state-sponsored peace march on Sunday. The offensive brought fighting close to the industrial city of Donetsk, centre of a pro-Russian rebellion, while shelling intensified in other parts of the region known as "Donbass". Military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said "We succeeded in almost completely cleansing the territory of the airport, which belongs to the territory of Ukrainian forces as marked by military separation lines." Colonel Cassad and Jacob Dreizin got the story correct. Western media outlets instead believe totally discredited sources in Kiev. No Glory in Stupidity On January 28, the LA Times reported How Ukraine's Outgunned 'Cyborgs' Lost Donetsk Airport. Some of the LA Times report is accurate, albeit late. Other parts seemed to glorify the "cyborgs" who "for 242 days, had held out against pro-Russia separatists who bombarded them from beyond the runways and prowled above and below them in the wreckage of the terminal." In my view, there is no glory in stupidity. But there's even less in sheer madness. Here are some snips from the LA Times article. Brigade commander Col. Yevgeny Moysyuk noted "We couldn't get our tanks or armored vehicles there anymore because they had used the truce time to fortify all the side approaches and deploy all kinds of heavy weapons." "We should have evacuated our men a few days earlier, then waited for the separs [separatists] to converge on the premises and bury them under the ruins," he said. At one point, in a desperate bid to rescue his men, Moysyuk borrowed a couple of armored vehicles with drivers from another brigade. But the drivers refused to go into what they knew was a fiery hell. [smart decision] So Moysyuk's own officers drove into the fog that had descended on the tarmac. Misled by the fog, they arrived at a different building, where they were surrounded by the enemy. The next day, the remaining paratroopers were ordered to attack the airport head-on. "This is just sheer idiocy!" exclaimed an airborne battalion commander, Maj. Ruslan Prusov. The man in charge of the operation, Col. Gen. Viktor Muzhenko, Ukraine's military chief of staff, was not inclined to share the pessimism of his subordinates. "A war doesn't proceed without casualties," Muzhenko said. "The losses of the opposite side are far greater than ours, and we didn't lose the airport, as it just became the front line, that is all." About a mile away, a doctor examined a large, bleeding wound on the top of a soldier's head. The man said he felt dizzy and the doctor asked him to wait so that he could put some stitches and bandages on it. "Don't you think he should go to a hospital?" another soldier asked. The doctor laughed. "If we send everyone with such wounds to a hospital," he said, "we will run out of men to fight the war with." Lies No One Believes Note the two lies in a single sentence by Col. Gen. Viktor Muzhenko: "The losses of the opposite side are far greater than ours, and we didn't lose the airport, as it just became the front line, that is all." Those lies are so preposterous no one can possibly believe them. The ending sentence to the above article is also worth repeating: "If we send everyone with such wounds to a hospital, we will run out of men to fight the war with." What Really Happened ON January 29, I posted a more accurate account of what happened and what's really going on in Ukraine. In case you missed it, please consider Conscription of People, Cars, Businesses in Ukraine for Mindless Slaughter; Entire Villages Leave to Avoid Servitude; Hop on the Bus Gus. The short version is conscription of cars, property, and people for the war effort. The smart citizens want no part of it. Entire villages have fled to Russia. The above link contained a video that describes in detail what happened to the fool's mission to retake the airport. I repeat it here with the same warning. The video below is graphic and contains a lot of harsh language. The video is about captured Ukrainian POWs on a fool's mission to retake the Donetsk airport. Warning aside, I recommend watching the video, entirely. Watch the scenes where locals confront the Ukrainian POWs. The video accurately portrays Ukrainians fighting Ukrainians, not Ukrainians fighting Russians. Ukrainian POW's Face NAF Commander Givi and the Fury of Donetsk Residents Link if Video Does not Play: UAF Storms Donetsk Airport and Gets Asses Handed to them by NAF. Want a translation to Spanish, German, Dutch, Danish, or French? Go to Information Clearing House. Civil War This is a f*ing civil war, no more, no less. It is not our battle. It is an internal battle. Yes, Russia is supporting the separatists. So what? Putin is not on a mission to take over Europe. Nor does he want to exterminate the Jews as a final solution. So please spare me the sap about Hitler and Chamberlain. Ironically, the US sponsored the civil war in the first place taking sides in the ouster of the former Ukrainian president. The second irony in these preposterous Putin-to-Hitler comparison is the simple fact the US supports neo-Nazis in Ukraine. (See Email From US Special Forces Veteran; 500 US Blackwater Mercenaries in Ukraine? US Backs Ukrainian Neo-Nazis) No one has remotely bothered to understand Russia's legitimate concerns. Just as the US did not want Russian missiles in Cuba, Russia does not want NATO on its border. Why is that so hard to understand? Jackass Solutions Unsurprisingly, jackasses at the Financial Times came out with this editorial: West must help Ukraine to defend itself against Russia. Of course the Times only wants to send "defensive weapons". And if Russia responds? The jackasses then suggest "The US and its allies must intensify their financial assistance to the Kiev government." Yes indeed, the jackass solution as always is to throw money at it. With Greece dangling in the air, let's "intensify financial assistance" to prolong wars. If Jackasses Could Think Instead of figuring out this is not remotely our battle, jackasses want to prolong the fighting with money and military equipment. This of course is expected. If jackasses could think, they would not be jackasses. With that, I will conclude this post the same way I did on January 29. .... Hop on the Bus Gus In honor of Ukrainian citizens smart enough to disavow the "Small Price Theory" and willing to tell their government to F* off, I offer this musical tribute. Link if Video does not Play: 50-Ways Paul Simon Hop on the bus Guss Don't need to discuss much Just drop off the keys Lee And get yourself free! No one has the right to own you. No one. No government. Ever! To disagree with the above is to support forced slavery. This War is Over The Vietnam war ended when public support turned against it, even though fighting continued long after. The same applies here. Hearts and minds have been lost along with the will to fight. Ukraine is split in two, barring a major military intervention by the US. Even though the war is over, the fighting can continue. How much longer the battles go on now depends on the US and IMF. The US can fund the bloodshed for a while longer and so can the IMF. US war-mongers may decide no price is too high to pay, even to the absurd point of engaging Russia directly. The US and IMF can force true peace negotiations on Kiev with a partition or federation of the country. But, what may have been acceptable to the separatists and Russia six months ago may no longer be so. Either way, Ukraine is never going to be a single country again. Such is the madness of arbitrarily drawing borders with no regard to cultural, political, or religious beliefs. The war is over. Kiev lost, even with the backing of the US. Let the peace process begin before more lives are lost and more needless destruction occurs. I authorize translation and republication of this individual article, to any language, on any site, as long as it contains a link back to this article. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

More Obama Dead-on-Arrival Tax Proposals Posted: 01 Feb 2015 01:58 PM PST Is there a point to beating your head against a concrete wall? The answer would seem to be "no", yet President Obama continues to do just that with dead-on-arrival proposals. Please consider Barack Obama Plans to Tax Overseas Cash Piles. President Barack Obama will propose raising $238bn by levying a one-off tax on the cash piles held by US companies overseas to repair the US's crumbling roads and bridges. The measure, a key plank of the US president's budget to be outlined on Monday, would impose a 14 per cent "transition" tax on the estimated $2tn in earnings US companies have amassed overseas, the White House said on Sunday. Critics say the existing offshore cash mountains testify to the aggressive foreign tax planning by US companies, while businesses cite them as evidence of the handicaps they face under an uncompetitive US tax regime. Mr Obama will also propose a 19 per cent tax on future foreign earnings, giving companies a credit on foreign taxes and allowing them to be reinvested in the US with no additional penalty. Under the current system, US companies pay little or no tax on their earnings abroad until they are brought back into the US. The money raised would be used to fund about half of an ambitious six-year programme of highway, bridge and transit upgrades, one of the president's main priorities during his final two years in office and an initiative that has attracted some degree of bipartisan support. The remainder of the programme would be financed by the existing highway fund. "This transition tax would mean that companies have to pay US tax right now on the $2tn they already have overseas, rather than being able to delay paying any US tax indefinitely," a White House official said. Wall of Dispute Critics say the existing offshore cash mountains testify to the aggressive foreign tax planning by US companies. Businesses cite aggressive tax planning as evidence of the handicaps they face under an uncompetitive US tax regime. Curiously, both statements are true. And the president's plan does nothing to fix the fundamental problem. US tax code encourages capital flight. So, corporations do just that, effectively wasting a mountain of money on lawyers and tax schemes in the process. Then, US corporate profits sit abroad, waiting for repatriation holidays which inevitably come every time there is an economic slowdown. Mish Proposal The initial problem is US corporate tax rates are too high. I propose cutting them to zero. Were that to happen, instead of US businesses sheltering money overseas, foreign corporations would setup offices in the US, moving as much here as they can. I believe growth in economic activity would far outweigh any lost revenue. In spite of obvious merit, my proposal would never fly. The president would veto it. So how about a more modest corporate flat-tax with no loopholes, at a rate far lower than most of Europe? Such a proposal would immediately end all this bickering on both sides. Republicans would get what they want (lower taxes). And Obama would get something he wants (ending foreign tax loopholes). Instead, he proposes dead-on-arrival ideas. Does Obama love beating his head against the wall with zero-chance proposals? If he's attempting to pound some sense into his head, it's clearly not working. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Seth's Blog : Almost no one

Almost no one

There's a huge difference between "no one" and "almost no one".

Almost no one is going to hire you.

Almost no one is going to become a true fan.

Almost no one is going to tell someone else about your work.

Almost no one is going to push you to make your work ever better.

If only 1% of the US population steps up, that's 3,000,000 people in the category of "almost no one."

If only one out of 10,000 internet users engages with you, that's still hundreds of thousands of people.

The chances that everyone is going to applaud you, never mind even become aware you exist, are virtually nil. Most brands and organizations and individuals that fail fall into the chasm of trying to be all things in order to please everyone, and up reaching no one.

That's the wrong thing to focus on. Better to focus on and delight almost no one.

       

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