sâmbătă, 14 februarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Ceasefire or Not? Will Kiev Honor Agreement? Poroshenko Says "Prepare for Martial Law"
Discount and Department Stores Boost Manager Ranks by 46% in Two Years, Hours Up 88%
Pessimism in Spain: 83% Say Economic Situation is Bad; Podemos Takes Huge Lead in Latest Poll

Ceasefire or Not? Will Kiev Honor Agreement? Poroshenko Says "Prepare for Martial Law"

Posted: 14 Feb 2015 08:51 PM PST

A ceasefire in Ukraine is supposedly underway. However there are many indications it won't last long. Let's take a look starting with a critical issue.

Kiev Denies Amnesty and Constitution Agreements

It seems highly unlikely that the separatists will honor the ceasefire given Kiev Denies Amnesty and Constitution Agreements. My translation follows.

Kiev is not going to honor two important points of the new Minsk new agreements: Amnesty and commitment to constitutional reform.

Speaking on Friday at a meeting of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin, said amnesty will not apply to the separatist leaders who are guilty of "crimes against humanity". Foreign Minister also noted that Ukraine did not incur any obligation on making specific changes to the Constitution of the country.

The most difficult issue in resolving the situation in the Donbas continues to be the so-called debaltsevsky boiler in the Donetsk region, where, according to the separatists, several thousand Ukrainian military were surrounded. Kiev denies this information.

Clashes Intensify Ahead of Ceasefire

The Guardian reports Fears for Ukraine's ceasefire as clashes with Russia-backed rebels intensify

Fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebel militias in the east of the country intensified on Saturday as fears grew for the durability of a ceasefire agreement that took effect at 12.01am on Sunday local time (10.01pm GMT on Saturday).

In an inauspicious omen for the prospects of any cessation of hostilities, rebels have said they will not consider any battles for the town to be a violation of the ceasefire.

In an inauspicious omen for the prospects of any cessation of hostilities, rebels have said they will not consider any battles for the town to be a violation of the ceasefire.

Even before the peace plan was agreed, 50 Russian tanks, 40 missile systems and 40 armoured vehicles had crossed into Ukraine, Kiev claimed. The Ukrainians were moving up reinforcements on Saturday as well, in the hope that a ceasefire would allow them to reach Debaltseve, a national guard commander told the Observer.

[Hmmmm can I see some images of those tanks please?]

British equipment is now also reportedly in Ukraine after a private firm sold 20 decommissioned British army Saxon armoured vehicles to Kiev.

Kiev also seemed to be bracing itself for continued clashes. Poroshenko warned on Saturday that, if the ceasefire did not work, he would declare a state of martial law across the country.

Alexander Zakharchenko, the rebel leader in the city of Donetsk, was quoted by the RIA Novosti news agency as saying his fighters would not allow Ukrainian forces to escape Debaltseve. Separatists have said the Ukrainian troops there would be offered only the opportunity to surrender.

Although rebels have been able to virtually surround Debaltseve and pound it with rockets and artillery, the road connecting the city with Ukrainian forces in Artemivsk is not fully under either side's control.

Surrounded

Regarding the Debaltseve Boiler I offer this translation from Colonel Cassad.

The junta's attempts to break through the corridor to Debaltseve failed. Moreover, the WPC not only repeled the attacks of the enemy along the M-103, but they themselves went on the offensive on Debaltseve and there in the evening unfolded fierce battles with tanks and artillery. As expected, the remaining days before a possible truce, the parties will try to spend in the area Debaltseve "as productively as possible." Tonight's the night and all the next day seems to pass very hard and a lot of people will die.

That report is now a day old, but with the trapped Ukrainian forces running out of ammunition, the situation for those trapped is bleak.

Truce?

The "truce" is now at hand. Translation of Colonel Cassad regarding the truce is even more difficult than usual. As best as I can tell, Ukraine has proclaimed victories just ahead of the truce. To which Cassad sarcastically replied "Experience shows that if Grishin writes about victories on Facebook, then with the troops of the junta there was something wrong.".

DNR Says Ceasefire Does Not Apply to Debaltsevo

For icing on the "truce" cake Colonel Cassad reports DNR Says Ceasefire Does Not Apply to Debaltsevo. This time I have a translation from Jacob Dreizin.

Zakharchenko as well as DNR [separtist] defense ministry spokesman Basurin stated today that the ceasefire does not apply to the Debaltsevo cauldron.

The reasoning seems to be that the cauldron is south of the agreed-upon line of contact between the DNR/LNR and Ukrainian forces, along which the ceasefire applies.

Hence, if the encircled forces do not surrender, then they are violating the ceasefire (i.e. not being where they are supposed to be) and their liquidation would not be a violation of the Minsk agreement.

Another consideration is that the Ukrainians in the cauldron would not be able to withdraw their artillery a sufficient distance (for obvious reasons), as required by Minsk, and thus, they would be violating the ceasefire and subject to liquidation.

By the way, pro-DNR/LNR sources are claiming that the encircled Ukrainians are starting to run low on ammunition.

Real Ceasefire Reason

Jacob wondered if "President Poroshenko was unaware that there was a cauldron, with his army was keeping the truth from him, simply to support their own needed propaganda."

I propose an alternative idea: Things were going so badly for Ukraine that Poroshenko felt he had no choice, especially with pressure from German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Regardless, the above commentary sets the tone. No matter how Kiev and Western media spins a breakage of the truce, Kiev never wanted to grant amnesty, nor institute constitutional reforms.

Unless and until Kiev is willing to agree to a federation with real autonomy for the separatist regions, I suggest no truce can last.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Discount and Department Stores Boost Manager Ranks by 46% in Two Years, Hours Up 88%

Posted: 14 Feb 2015 12:38 PM PST

In the last two years, hours worked by managers at discount and department stores are up 86% while hours worked by nonsupervisor employees is down.

Why? Supervisors, don't get paid overtime. It's yet another artifact of Obamacare.

Please consider The Obama Recovery's Illusory Manager Hiring Binge by Jed Graham.

Retailers and other modest-wage employers increasingly are relying on managers, an unusual feature of the Obama economic recovery. Discount and department stores have boosted managers' ranks by 46% in less than two years, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show. And their hours worked have nearly doubled.

In reality, this is a classification change more than a hiring binge, and a logical response to the Obamacare employer mandate to provide full-time workers with health insurance or pay a fine. As companies shift some workers below 30 hours per week to avoid the mandate, they also have an incentive to stretch the cost of insuring full-timers over as many hours of work as possible.

Nowhere has the shift to managers been more visible than among general merchandise retailers. Since the start of 2013, when the earliest measurement period for the ObamaCare employer mandate got underway (only to be postponed in July of that year), managers at discount and department stores are working 6 million more hours each week, up a hard-to-believe 88% by November 2014. Meanwhile, the ranks of managers have increased by about 92,000, or 46%.

Congratulations!

Congratulations, you are now a manager, but don't expect any more money. Instead, expect to work 50 hours for the same or slightly more pay.

Obama wants to put an end to that by revamping overtime rules for the first time since 2004.

Current: Only salaried workers who make less than $455 a week, or $23,660 a year, are guaranteed overtime pay.
Department of Labor Proposal: $42,000 a year ($808 a week).
EPI Recommendation: The Economic Policy Institute (EPI), wants to increase the limit to a minimum of $51,168 ($984 a week).

EPI Proposals

The Department of Labor threshold would expand overtime to 3.5 million managers, while EPI Proposals would affect between 6.1 million and 10.4 million workers.

In the past year, four significant proposals have been made. The lowest proposal, for a threshold of $807 per week or $42,000 a year, is rumored to be under consideration at the Department of Labor (DOL). Jared Bernstein and I recommended a simple inflation adjustment of the 1975 threshold: $984 per week or $51,168 a year. In a paper for EPI, Heidi Shierholz suggested that $1,122 per week, or $58,344 a year, was appropriate because it would guarantee that the same share of salaried workers receive overtime protection as were protected in 1975—after adjusting for the different educational composition of the workforce today. The highest figure, proposed by Nick Hanauer, is $1,327 per week, or $69,004 a year. It represents the salary level that would cover the same share of salaried workers as in 1975, but without adjustments for changed demographics.

National Retail Federation President Matthew Shay last fall called on industry leaders to "work overtime on overtime.

"The proposal is targeted largely at retailers: Overtime could become mandatory for assistant managers making as much as $50,000 if they spend too much time jumping in to work a cash register, stock shelves or help customers," Shay wrote.

If Obama does what the EPI asks, expect the ranks of managers to thin dramatically with still more reliance on parttime work and still more double-counting of employees in the establishment job survey.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Pessimism in Spain: 83% Say Economic Situation is Bad; Podemos Takes Huge Lead in Latest Poll

Posted: 14 Feb 2015 02:03 AM PST

Pessimism in the Streets

In spite of the "recovery" in Spain, close to 24% are still unemployed. That statistic explains Pessimism in the Streets.

The crisis is here to stay according to significant majority of Spaniards. The general perception is that the current situation in which the country is negative and far from getting better, can only stay stagnant or even worse.

A Metroscopia poll published in El País makes it clear that the Spanish are unhappy with the current state of the country. Five out of six (83%) see the economic situation as "bad", while more than half of the remaining perceive "regular".

More than half of respondents (52%) believe that in the coming months nothing will change, compounded with 15% who think things will get worse.

Podemos Takes Huge Lead in Latest Poll

Taking things one step further, overall pessimism explains the results of the latest election polls as Voters Punish PSOE and PP.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his People's Party are in serious trouble in the upcoming elections later this year.

Dissatisfaction

In spite of the alleged recovery in Spain voters are dissatisfied. Why? Unemployment is still near 24% and youth unemployment is still over 50%.

Recall that Podemos "Economic Manifesto" Calls for Debt Restructuring, Spain to Abandon the "Euro Trap".

"Spaniards should be aware that it is physically impossible that they can pursue policies that meet the national interest, within the euro as it is designed. The euro was conceived as a real trap, but nowhere is it written that people have to accept it ." said Iglesias.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Measure what you care about (re: the big sign over your desk)

Measure what you care about (re: the big sign over your desk)

It's not always easy to measure what matters. Sometimes, the thing that matters doesn't make it easy for you to measure it.

The easiest path is to find a stand-in for what you care about and measure that instead. For example, websites don't actually care about how many minutes someone spends on the site, they care about transactions or ad sales or making content that moves people to take action. But those things might be harder to measure at first, so they focus on minutes.

The problem with stand-ins is that they're almost always not quite right. The stand-in looks good at first, but then employees figure out how to game the system to make the stand-in number go up instead of the thing you're actually trying to change.

A good way to find out: If you had to choose between increasing the stand-in stat and increasing the thing you actually care about, which would you invest in?

Roses, chocolates and greeting cards are a stand-in for actual human emotions, a stand-in for caring and respect and love. But of course, it's way easier to make the expense on chocolate go up than it is to actually care more.

Political fundraisers use money as a stand-in for votes, and in the short run, it might be. But not forever.

Authors use bestseller lists as a stand-in for making an impact, and in the short run, it might be. But of course, one thing is a lot easier to game than the other.

The moment you start heavily investing in making a stand-in number increase, it's worth taking a minute to look at the big sign hanging over your desk (you do have a big sign, right?) that says what you're actually seeking to do, the change you're working to make. Make that go up, even if you don't have an easy stand-in handy.

• Email to a friend •

vineri, 13 februarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Senator Inhofe Sponsors Ukraine Military Weapons Bill Based on Images of Russian Soldiers in Georgia in 2008

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 11:59 AM PST

On February 11, US Senator Jim Inhofe authored a Bill to Arm Ukraine with Lethal Military Aid.

Mr. President I rise today to introduce my bill that authorizes the President to provide lethal weapons to the Government of Ukraine in order to defend itself against Russian-backed rebel separatists in eastern Ukraine.

On January 15, 2015, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated, "For several months we have seen the presence of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, as well as a substantial increase in Russian heavy equipment such as tanks, artillery, and advanced air defense systems."

These photographs were given to me by Lt Col Semen Semenchenko, the commander of Donbas Volunteer Assault Battalion and newly elected member of the parliament of Ukraine, during our meeting on 13 Nov last year.

The first set of pictures show Russian troops in T-72 tanks, BTR armored personnel carriers, and BMP infantry fighting vehicles entering eastern Ukraine, waiving Russian flags. This is not simply supporting separatists – it is an invasion of the Ukraine by Russia.

The second set of picture were taken by Ukrainian soldiers on the front line in eastern Ukraine.

Fake Pictures

According to Ukraine and NATO, there are 5,000 Russian troops swarming Ukraine with more coming in every day.

Thus one might expect Senator Inhofe to have a basket of images to use as justification for US warmongering.

Instead, it turns out the pictures were fake. They show Russian troops in Georgia in 2008.

Colonel Cassad Explains

Via translation from Colonel Cassad Photos that were the Basis of Preparation of the Law on the Supply of US Weapons to Ukraine Were Fake.

US Republican senator Jim Inhofe was furious to find out that Ukrainian parliament gave him fake pictures as evidence the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine. The senator gave these pictures to the Washington Free Beacon for publication. Readers immediately noticed something was wrong.

Later publication reported that the images "raised a number of issues," and this fact is being checked.

"Some of the photos of Russian military were made in 2008 during the conflict in Georgia" admitted the journalists. Other photos were taken years before in other armed conflicts. Be that as it may, these images were transferred to a reception Senator Jim Inhofe in December 2014 under the guise of photo chronicle of events in Ukraine.

Inhofe Tricked

No major western news site has picked up this story.

I did find this Free Beacon story Inhofe Criticizes Ukrainian Group for Providing Misleading Photos.

Following publication of this story, serious questions have been raised about the authenticity of some of the photographs provided by Sen. Jim Inhofe (R., Okla.). Several images of the Russian convoys appear to have been taken in 2008, during Russia's conflict with Georgia. Given the similarities between the earlier images and those provided by the senator's office, the Washington Free Beacon is investigating further and will update as necessary.

When asked about the discrepancies, Donelle Harder, Inhofe's communications director, said that the office is checking back with its sources.

"These were presented to the Armed Services Committee from a delegation from Ukraine in December," Harder said. "In December, we talked to them about publishing the photos and giving them the credit, and they were fine with that. We thoroughly checked our sources again prior to releasing the photos, and felt confident proceeding because the photos also match reporting. We are currently making calls to our sources."

UPDATE 7:10 P.M.: Sen. Inhofe said in a statement: "The Ukrainian parliament members who gave us these photos in print form as if it came directly from a camera really did themselves a disservice. We felt confident to release these photos because the images match the reporting of what is going on in the region. I was furious to learn one of the photos provided now appears to be falsified from an AP photo taken in 2008. This doesn't change the fact that there is plenty of evidence Russia has made advances into the country with T-72 tanks and that pro-Russian separatists have been killing Ukrainians in cold blood."

The Washington Free Beacon regrets the error.

Inhofe Tweets

Tweet: What a f'ing joke. WFB runs photos from Inhofe as proof Russia arming Ukraine. At least 1 from Russo-Georgian War.

Response 1: "One of them goes back to at least 2012:

Response 2: "Also from Russo-Georgian War. You can see structures in other photographs"

Response 3: "So @jiminhofe's 'new intel' on Ukraine armor consists, in part, of 2 photos from Ossetia, 1 AFP wire service photo"

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Obama Asks Congress for "Limited" War on ISIS; Explaining "Limited"; Republicans Seek "Robust" War

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 10:45 AM PST

On Wednesday, president Obama Asked Congress to Back War on Isis.

Six months after US planes began bombing Jihadi militants in Iraq and Syria, President Barack Obama is taking a political gamble by asking Congress to approve the military operation.

The White House on Wednesday sent to Congress a new war powers resolution to authorise a "limited" military campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (known as Isis) for the next three years.

In a statement at the White House, Mr Obama said the resolution was designed to give the "flexibility we need for unforeseen circumstances". He would consider using US forces in Iraq or Syria if, for instance, the US received information about a meeting of Isis leaders.

But he insisted that the US was not getting "dragged back into another prolonged ground war in the Middle East". The resolution was "not the authorisation of another ground war, like Afghanistan or Iraq".

Although operations against Isis so far have taken place only in Iraq and Syria, the resolution places no geographic limits on the fight against either Isis or what it calls "associated persons or forces" — a phrase that has been used in the past to justify counter-terrorism operations against a range of different groups.

However, at the same time the resolution calls on the next president to return to Congress in three years' time to either justify or change the military campaign and bars the US military from conducting what it calls "enduring offensive ground combat operations".

Explaining "Limited"

Don't worry. War will be "limited" just like Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, and other initially limited engagements.
It can't last longer than three years because of the "stringent requirement" that the next president would have to ask for an extension.
Besides, ground troops won't be used, unless of course they are.
And operations will be limited to Iraq and Syria except as needed to target "associated persons or forces" anywhere in the world.

In other words, Obama seeks approval to pretty much do whatever the hell he wants. Realistically, there are no limitations.

Republicans Seek "Robust" War

However, war hawks in Congress, don't want to deal with even theoretical limitations. For example, House Speaker John Boehner quipped "If we are going to defeat this enemy, we need a comprehensive military strategy and a robust authorization, not one that limits our options. The president's request did not give military commanders "the flexibility and authorities they need to succeed and protect our people".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

40 Tourist Scams to Avoid This Summer [Infographic]
This Mom Let Her 3 Year Old Dress Her For A Week
Scarlett Johansson Just Bought A $4 Million Dollar House

40 Tourist Scams to Avoid This Summer [Infographic]

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 11:37 AM PST

Tourist scams are an unfortunate part of life and reality for many holidaymakers. Everywhere in the world are people looking for unscrupulous ways to make money, all at someone else's expense, loss, and sometimes quite terrible suffering. Just The Flight have collated a list of the most common tourist scams from around the world, to help ensure that you don't get caught out on your holiday this summer.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

via justtheflight

This Mom Let Her 3 Year Old Dress Her For A Week

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 11:28 AM PST

Who says 3 year olds don't have good fashion sense? This kid knocked it out of the park.

via reddit

Scarlett Johansson Just Bought A $4 Million Dollar House

Posted: 13 Feb 2015 11:19 AM PST

Fresh off a trip from France, Scarlett Johansson just bought a beautiful 1940s home for her and her family to the tune of $3.88 million dollars. From the looks of it this thing is worth every single penny.

Wait, Paid Media Investments Can Yield SEO Value?! - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

Wait, Paid Media Investments Can Yield SEO Value?! - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog
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Wait, Paid Media Investments Can Yield SEO Value?! - Whiteboard Friday

Posted on: Friday 13 February 2015 — 01:17

Posted by randfish

Investing in advertising might feel like we're simply buying people's time and attention, but there's far more to it than that. Done right, advertising can show returns in many organic channels, including SEO. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand shows us how.

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard!

Video transcription

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're going to chat about advertising investments and how paying for advertising can actually yield positive results for SEO, for links, for social shares, for content investments, for email marketing, for all of these organic channels.

I know this seems weird, but it actually can work. Google has some guidelines around this. They say, "Look, if you're over here and you're saying like, "Hey, man, I'll give you 500 bucks for a link on your site, a live, followed back link directly,' that is not okay." Even if the person on the other side says, "Sure, I'll take your 500 bucks and add that link."

Google doesn't want to count those links. They treat those as web spam. They're going to find ways to avoid that type of manipulation. They can, in fact, penalize you for it, and lots of times they do.

However, Google is totally fine with and they even support, endorse, and run systems, a whole advertising network around this to say, "Hey, I'd love to buy some ad spots from this website." Sure. My sidebar ads are no followed, and they cost $150 a month. This is totally 100% okay by Google.

In fact, this is okay by any form of things. So social networks are fine with this. Email things are fine with this. The FCC, the Federal Communications folks here in the U.S. are totally fine with this. The EU is fine with this. It's totally okay. As long as it's disclosed that this is an advertising relationship on the website, you're in the clear. In fact, very often it's the case that there's a correlation, a strong correlation between advertising and organic types of relationships and returns.

Tactics that are worth trying (depending on your business goals)

Blogs, forums, niche websites, or news/media sites

So a lot of times you'll see an ad buy is the first step to a deeper relationship between a website or a blogger or a media source and an advertiser, and that will lead to some forms of content sharing. Maybe some of the content will be promoted on the advertiser's site or the other way around. That might lead to some business development of some kind. That could lead to guest contributions of content or guest posting of some kind. It can lead to social sharing where the advertiser shares something that they've sponsored on the media sites or the other way around. It can lead to email inclusions and email sponsorships.

It can even lead directly to links and brand mentions. People will say, "Hey, I want to thank my advertiser," or "Hey, one of my advertisers came out with this cool product that, in fact, they didn't pay me to endorse, but I am organically endorsing it because I really like it. By the way, they happen to be top of mind for me because they're an advertiser." Sometimes you don't even realize those relationships are happening, but they do.

This is why often there is a very strong connection between advertising dollars and those kinds of more organic forms of relationships. While Google certainly is smart enough to realize that those relationships exist, they don't say, "No, it's not okay that you bought an advertising format from this person, and that eventually led to a more organic kind of relationship and now they're endorsing you without a followed link, without payment in an editorial kind of way." That's actually totally fine.

This is why advertising can be so powerful, not just for search and for links, although that's certainly a big one. So I've actually got a few suggestions, some places where we've seen over the course of time, and I've seen certainly in some of the companies that I occasionally help out informally, where they've benefited from these types of things. On the other side, I've seen from bloggers, journalists, and media sites and niche websites and forums, how they have also benefited from these forms of advertising.

Some of these tactics may be worth trying. It's really going to depend on your business goals and who your audience is. But the first and most obvious one is really what's reflected over here, and that is reaching out to these bloggers, forums, niche websites, news and media sites. They often offer direct forms of sponsorship or display or text ads on their site. They are going to be no followed, or they're going to use some sort of JavaScript redirect.

What you want to do, though, is you want to go direct. So I want to buy from NicheBloggerABC.com, not from Google Ads or Federated Media, which happens to power advertising on their site. So you want those direct advertising inquiries, where you have the relationship personally, and that's what you're building. Don't use that generic ad provider.

By the way, if you're going direct, make sure those links are no followed. You don't want to buy followed links, or you'll get into the problem that we had over here. You're trying to build a relationship, not a followed link. Hopefully, all those other positive organic things, those will come later if you buy these no followed links, if you start that relationship with advertising.

Conference and event sponsorships

Especially, in particular, more creative and more audience relevant forms of advertising can create much greater engagement. So if you buy a booth at a conference, well that can help. Maybe you've got a trade show booth and people come by and that kind of thing, and that does work for some folks, especially if they're looking for leads.

We've done a few things with conference and events, even here at Moz, where we've done forms of sponsorship that are more creative. We give out swag. We share some content. We do something that's very special for the audience, that happens to be relevant to their interests, usually along the lines of SEO stuff. That works much better. That often will get pickup and coverage by press and media, by bloggers who attend events, by people on social media who go to these events.

Weirdly, almost ironically, the less promotional you are in your advertising, which seems counterintuitive, the better this works for all of the organic kinds of things you're seeking. It might not work quite as well for that direct lead capture or sales capture. But by saying, "Hey, we're going to provide free Wi-Fi to the entire conference, and all you have to do is enter a repetition of our brand name three times as the password." Well, guess what? That builds a lot of brand equity, and it is much more appreciated than, "Hey, we're going to need you to take this free demo" or "You need to give us your email address and be promoted to," and these kinds of things. That less promotional can often have greater returns.

Outdoor/TV/radio/print advertising

Then the last one I'll mention here, even though this list could go on and on and you can use your imagination, is outdoor TV, radio, print, those old school forms of advertising. I think one of the most interesting studies I saw was a couple of years ago showing the correlation between these forms of advertising and search volume. The team from SEER Interactive put up a case study about some outdoor advertising.

Now, it could have been SEER. It might have been Distilled. I'm going to make sure, and I'm going to put it in the blog post itself. I'll link over to that study for you guys, showing that when one of their clients had invested in these forms of advertising, they saw a direct bump in search traffic.

Editor's note: Rand offered up a couple of other relevant links for more information about the relationship between offline ads and search traffic:
Mercedes-Benz: Quantifying how online and offline marketing work together to drive sales volume
Can TV Advertising Really Impact Search Performance?

Essentially more people were searching for their brand name, for their products, and those people went to their website. Now that's a beautiful thing, especially if you are trying to increase search demand and search click-through rate.

So if you perceive that you have a weakness in terms of, "Hey, we're just not getting as much branded search. We're not getting as high a click-through rate. Our brand recognition is low. That's hurting us in search results. People are getting better engagement than us, and as a result they are getting higher rankings and better links and all this other kind of stuff." This is a great way to potentially combat this.

With any form of tactic that you're trying like this, you're going to want to think really carefully about audience makeup. So many of the times when you're doing more traditional kinds of advertising, what you're seeking is an audience that's made up of people who are going to buy your product, people who have a high potential to be a customer.

That's actually not necessarily what you're seeking when you do these forms of advertising. You are really seeking, yes, people who might become customers, but also people who might influence customers. Customer influencers is often a very different group than direct customers themselves. It might be that you're reaching a much smaller audience, but it is more targeted to that flow.

For conferences and events, you really want those press and media types of people. For these blog, forums, and niche websites, you might be targeting influencers and journalists and other bloggers and social media mavens and that kind of stuff, who consume this type of content online far more than your regular customers do.

So you want to be careful about that when you're choosing advertising that is supposed to be helping you with organic channels. This is a really interesting topic. It's one of the newer kinds of forms and ways that people are leveraging paid advertising. It can run the risk, if you get too aggressive with it, that you actually step on some of these FCC guidelines or Google's guidelines. So you've got to be very careful. But if you walk this line well, you can experience great benefit to your SEO, your social, your content, your email, your brand by paying for it and getting those indirect benefits as a second order effect.

All right, everyone. Hope you've enjoyed this edition of Whiteboard Friday. I look forward to some great comments. Hopefully, you all have some stories to share about this, and we'll see you again next week. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com

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Seth's Blog : Is Google making the web stupid?

Is Google making the web stupid?

Jazz became popular because an opera-loving engineer developed radio, which opened the door for an ignored art form to spread.

And rock and roll was enabled by the transistor radio and the FM band.

More subtly, consider the fact that real estate developers lobbied for suburban train lines to build their stations in hamlets where they owned a lot of land. A station, particularly an express stop, would lead to more residents, then more businesses, then more investment in schools, then a bigger station, an entire ecosystem based on one early choice.

The internet is no different. Decisions at the center change everything around the edges, for all of us.

Aaron Wall has been blogging about Google's power for years, and his latest post makes an insightful connection:

Some of the more hated aspects of online publishing (headline bait, idiotic correlations out of context, pagination, slideshows, popups, fly in ad units, auto play videos, ... etc.) are not done because online publishers want to be jackasses, but because it is hard to make the numbers work in a competitive environment.

Ever since the first commercial website (GNN) was launched by Tim, Dale and Lisa, the model has been the same: earn free traffic and monetize it with ads.

There are two parts to this equation: traffic and ads.

Google (the source of so much traffic) is under huge pressure from Wall Street to deliver increased profits, and until self-driving cars kick in, the largest share of those earnings is going to come from the ads they sell. To maximize their profit, Google has spent the last nine years aggressively working to increase the share of ads on each page in their search results, as well as working hard to keep as many clicks as they can within the Google ecosystem.

If you want traffic, Google's arc makes clear to publishers, you're going to have to pay for it.

Which is their right, of course, but that means that the ad tactics on every other site have to get ever more aggressive, because search traffic is harder to earn with good content. And even more germane to my headline, it means that content publishers are moving toward social and viral traffic, because they can no longer count on search to work for them. It's this addiction to social that makes the web dumber. If you want tonnage, lower your standards.

Google's original breakthrough model for indexing the web was realizing the power of the link. Great content earned more links, more links got a higher ranking, and there was an incentive to create more great content. This was an extraordinary virtuous cycle, the one that opened the door for quality content online.

It was Google's decision to send people away from the site (compared to Yahoo, which decided to keep people on the site) that led Google's growth. People came to Google hoping to leave Google to find something worth clicking on, and media companies eagerly worked to make content that would give them something to read. We've always counted on a media arbiter to raise the bar of our culture.

The gaming of the SEO system combined with the power of first page results (virtually all search clicks come to those on the first page of results) combined with Google's shift to controlling as much as possible of the unpaid clickstream means that this paradigm is no longer what it was.

That means that a thoughtful, well-written online magazine has a harder time being discovered by someone who might be searching for it, which makes it harder to scale.

If you're a content provider, the shift to mobile, and to social and the shift in Google's priorities mean that it's worth a very hard look at how you'll monetize and the value of permission (i.e. the subscribers to this blog are its backbone). And if you're Google, it's worth comparing the short-term upside of strangling the best (thoughtful, personal, informed) content to the long-term benefit of creating a healthy ecosystem.

Here's the key question: Are the people who are making great content online doing it despite the search regime, or enabled by it?

For the first ten years of the web, the answer was obvious. I'm not sure it is any longer.

And if you're still reading this long post, if you're one of the billions of people who rely on the free content that's shared widely, it's worth thinking hard about whether the center of that content universe is pushing the library you rely on to get dumb, fast.

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joi, 12 februarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Austerity Queen Angela Merkel Ready for Compromise on Greece?
Stratfor Says "Russia Comes Out Ahead"; Colonel Cassad Chime In; Ambiguities of Ceasefire
Ceasefire in Ukraine; Description of the Negotiations; Will This Hold?
Greece Talks Break Down; Parties Cannot Even Agree On a Statement

Austerity Queen Angela Merkel Ready for Compromise on Greece?

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 07:11 PM PST

Talk of Compromise is in the air. Reports suggest that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras may both be willing to compromise. However, details are still sketchy.

Bloomberg reports Greece, Germany Said to Offer Compromises on Aid Terms

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras met his European Union peers at a summit for the first time Thursday and said afterwards he sees political will to agree on what happens after the current aid program expires this month. Greece's goal remains a six-month bridge agreement that would lead to a new deal with euro-area authorities, he told reporters.

Behind-the-scenes negotiations resumed in Brussels hours after euro-area finance ministers failed to reach a joint conclusion. Greek negotiators and officials from its euro-area creditors plan to meet in Brussels Friday to discuss the way ahead as they struggle to decide whether to call the arrangement an extension, a new program or a bridge deal, officials said.

Deal Elements

Germany won't insist that all elements of Greece's current aid program continue, said two officials in Berlin. As long as the program is prolonged, they said, Germany would be open to talking about the size of Greece's budget-surplus requirement and conditions to sell off government assets.

Greece's willingness to hold to more than two-thirds of its bailout promises shows that Greece is broadly prepared to stick to the program, the German officials said. Improving tax collection and fighting corruption will win German backing, and getting a deal will depend on Greece's overall reform pledges.

Greece is prepared to commit to a primary budget surplus, as long as it's lower than the current 4 percent of gross domestic product, according to Greek government officials. Tsipras's coalition also might compromise on privatizations, one of the officials said. The officials asked not to be named because the deliberations are private and still in progress.

Greece wants a "a new contract" in which " our commitments for primary fiscal balances will be included and continuation of reforms," Tsipras told reporters after the EU summit. "This also obviously needs to include a technical solution for a writedown on the country's debt, so the country has fiscal room to return to growth."

Shifting Tone

In a bid to restart work toward a solution, Tsipras also met Thursday with Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who heads meetings of his euro-region counterparts. The Greek side agreed to let a team of euro-area experts "engage with the Greek authorities to start work on a technical assessment of the common ground" on future financing, Dijsselbloem spokeswoman Simone Boitelle said in an e-mail.

Austerity Queen Willing to Talk

Reuters reports Greece Agrees to Talk to Creditors

Greece agreed on Thursday to talk to its creditors about the way out of its hated international bailout in a political climbdown that could prevent its new leftist-led government running out of money as early as next month.

"(We) agreed today to ask the institutions to engage with the Greek authorities to start work on a technical assessment of the common ground between the current programme and the Greek government's plans," Dijsselbloem tweeted. This, he said, would pave the way for crucial talks between euro zone finance ministers on Monday.

Dijsselbloem was cautious about prospects for a deal, telling reporters: "It is going to be very difficult. It is going to take time. Don't get your hopes up yet."

On Wednesday night, euro zone finance ministers had failed to agree even on a statement on the next procedural steps because Athens did not want any reference to the unpopular bailout, nor to the despised "troika" of lenders enforcing it.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, vilified by the Greek left as Europe's "austerity queen", said Berlin was ready for a compromise and finance ministers had a few more days to consider Greece's proposals before next Monday's meeting.

"However, it must also be said that Europe's credibility naturally depends on us respecting rules and being reliable with each other," she said.

"The real risk in Athens seems to be that Tsipras has raised expectations to such an extent that he could find it extremely difficult to back down from his rhetoric and strike a deal which the rest of the Eurozone could accept," Berenberg Bank economists wrote in a note on Thursday.

Both sides seemingly want a deal. If a deal occurs, both sides will claim they gave up nothing. We will see.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Stratfor Says "Russia Comes Out Ahead"; Colonel Cassad Chime In; Ambiguities of Ceasefire

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 02:13 PM PST

In Ceasefire in Ukraine; Description of the Negotiations I asked a number of questions.

Will This Hold?

I don't know. This sounds like the limited autonomy arrangement in the last failed Minsk accord. But what's in the footnote? Does this mean a limited Federation without using those words? Is everyone tired enough of war to make this stick?

Let's take a look at what Colonel Cassad and Stratfor have to say.

Colonel Cassad on Results of Minsk

Here is a link to a Google Translation of Colonel Cassad on Results of Minsk.

A skeptical Cassad calls the results a half-hearted solution which on the one hand outlines the terms of the cease-fire, and on the other, a series of questions hanging in the air.

"The Truce on February 15 (if it takes place), will mean that the fighting will continue for 2 days where changes will mark the frontline border"

Cassad notes the "incomprehensible situation of the Debaltsevskim boiler [cauldron]. Poroshenko argues that there is no boiler, and Putin argues that trapped forces must lay down their arms."

"With regard to the remaining items, there is more wishful thinking than concrete solutions. France and Germany do not accept any responsibility for the implementation of these agreements, it is solely the responsibility of Russia, and of the junta [Ukraine] with the People's Republic. The threat of escalation of the confrontation was not removed, but simply postponed."

Autonomy

The critical question of autonomy will likely make or break this accord Cassad. Here is an unedited translation of Cassad.

Leaders of the DNI and LC actually publicly disown Declaration of State Sovereignty of People's Republic and gave their consent to the actual stay within Ukraine. The idea of federalization and autonomy of Ukraine were publicly buried that Poroshenko has already declared his major success. At the same reservation had been made in the case of violation of the agreements more talks will follow. This is probably one of the required Russian guarantees. Of course, if hypothetically assume that all points of the agreement are met and the Donbass will remain a part of Ukraine, proposals laid with new agreements that do not allow us to say that the Donbass stub can be used as a lever to correct the Kremlin Ukraine in the desired way. At the same time official Kiev is still evading the Kremlin's attempts to seat Poroshenko and managers DNR and LC for the negotiation table. That is the direct contacts between the junta and the People's Republic is still there, and the next "truce" is pushed under the verbal assurances of the Russian Federation, Germany and France.

Cassad Conclusion

A full-fledged document on the settlement did not happen, the question hung in the air of the Crimea. In general, in my opinion, if the truce will not be torpedoed right now, we will have another respite and renewal of intense fighting. From what discussed and what was signed and that in my opinion can be done - a truce, divorce and heavy weapons exchange of prisoners. Everything else at this stage malovypolnimo, even without taking into account the expected action by the US escalation of the conflict.

The above translation is also unedited.

Ambiguities of Ceasefire

Stratfor, like Cassad discusses various ambiguities in Terms of Ukraine's Ceasefire.

Following marathon talks in Minsk that lasted more than 17 hours, the leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement that appears to align with the Kremlin's demands. The document calls for a cease-fire to begin Feb. 15, the withdrawal of weapons and the enactment of constitutional reforms in Ukraine. Though Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has denied that the agreement includes provisions for the creation of autonomous regions or the federalization of Ukraine, the document on the whole does fulfill several of the Kremlin's long-standing demands with regards to the status of Donbas.

The new cease-fire agreement is based largely on the original one that went into effect Sept. 5. It focuses on the withdrawal of heavy artillery systems, which have been prominent throughout the conflict, within 14 days of the cease-fire's implementation. The new cease-fire requires these artillery systems to be withdrawn far beyond their maximum effective ranges, a move that will create a buffer to prevent escalation and heavy artillery fire on the demarcation line. Missing from the agreement, however, is a decision on the fate of the still heavily contested Ukrainian positions in Debaltseve. Because both sides will have to withdraw their artillery systems, the result will be a very deep area without artillery cover in the center of the demarcation line.

The signing of the new Minsk agreement, as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin's direct participation in the negotiations, points to the Kremlin's willingness to at least partially de-escalate the conflict at this time. The agreement includes some vague measures and conditions that all sides may ultimately chose not to implement. Several key points of contention remain unaddressed, and there are still many opportunities for the agreement to break down if they are not resolved. Therefore, political will, rather than the actual terms of the agreement, will determine whether a significant de-escalation is to take place.

"Russia Comes Out Ahead"

In a second writeup, Stratfor says In Minsk Talks, Russia Comes Out Ahead

Following marathon talks in Minsk that lasted more than 17 hours, the leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement that appears to align with the Kremlin's demands. The agreement reflects Ukraine's increasingly weak negotiating position as well as Germany's wish to avoid confrontation with Russia while trying to save the eurozone. Though the deal includes some notable provisions regarding a cease-fire and the withdrawal of arms, it also contains several points, most importantly constitutional changes, that will challenge Kiev and give the Kremlin control over key parts of the agreement.

Ambiguity and Political Will

The political provisions of the agreement largely favor the Kremlin. The agreement prescribes constitutional reforms in Ukraine that would transition the country to a more decentralized system of governance — although it offers few details as to what that decentralization would entail. The accord also outlines a requirement for the Ukrainian government to enshrine into law a special status for Donetsk and Luhansk provinces that would allow them to form local militias and work with the central government to appointment local prosecutors and formulate economic and social policies for the regions.

Nevertheless, local elections and plans for Ukrainian forces to take control of the border areas between Donbas and Russia will not happen under the terms of the agreement unless Ukraine first conducts constitutional reforms. This leaves much room for ambiguity regarding the types of reforms and the extent of decentralization that would be deemed acceptable to the separatist and Russian sides before other elements of the deal could be implemented.

The ambiguity of constitutional changes gives the Kremlin options and allows Russian troops to continue controlling parts of the border, giving them access to Donbas. Moreover, the participation and cooperation of top-level separatist leaders at Minsk highlighted the Kremlin's continued influence over separatist groups, signaling that Russia will likely maintain a strong hold over the local leadership if Donbas receives its special status.

The German and French leaders who negotiated the deal have highlighted the fact that the agreement does not completely resolve the conflict. Following the talks, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there is much work left to do, but she did note that the negotiations offered hope for a solution.

Notably, the United States was not formally represented during the nightlong negotiations in Minsk, but its reaction and willingness to support the agreement will be crucial.

Several key points of contention remain unaddressed from a military and political perspective, and there are still many opportunities for the agreement to break down if they are not resolved. Therefore, political will, rather than the actual terms of the agreement, will determine whether a significant de-escalation is to take place.

Current Cauldron Map

Poroshenko's claim "there is no boiler" is preposterous. Map from LiveJournal.

Ceasefire Problem Area

Above map from Stratfor, I added purple highlights. Clearly, key questions remain. If the ceasefire does hold, it is not clear who "won". It all depends on how numerous ambiguities are resolved.

Addendum:

Cassad concluded with "A full-fledged document on the settlement did not happen, the question hung in the air of the Crimea. In general, in my opinion, if the truce will not be torpedoed right now, we will have another respite and renewal of intense fighting. From what discussed and what was signed and that in my opinion can be done - a truce, divorce and heavy weapons exchange of prisoners. Everything else at this stage malovypolnimo, even without taking into account the expected action by the US escalation of the conflict."

Jacob Dreizin informs me that "malovypolnimo" translates as "not realistically fulfillable"

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ceasefire in Ukraine; Description of the Negotiations; Will This Hold?

Posted: 12 Feb 2015 11:30 AM PST

After 16 hours of talks in the Belarusian capital Minsk the leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia agreed to a ceasefire. This meeting took place in two locations, Minsk and Russia, because Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko refused to meet rebel leaders.

Here is a link to the Full Text of the Ceasefire.

The accord sets boundaries, grants amnesty and pardons, and requires release of prisoners on both sides.

Points 10-12 are where it gets interesting.

In a move that mainly targets Russia but also affects mercenaries fighting on the Ukrainian side, point 10 of the accord calls for "Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under monitoring of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups."

Point 11 calls for "Carrying out constitutional reform in Ukraine with a new constitution entering into force by the end of 2015 providing for decentralization as a key element (including a reference to the specificities of certain areas in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, agreed with the representatives of these areas), as well as adopting permanent legislation on the special status of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in line with measures as set out in the footnote until the end of 2015."

Point 12 says "Based on the Law of Ukraine 'On interim local self-government order in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions', questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR."

I do not see the footnote mentioned in point 11.

Description of the Negotiations

In intense negotiations Chancellor Merkel was the main go-between with Putin.

In this lies hope," tweeted Ms Merkel's spokeperson, who was the driving force behind negotiations that Mr Hollande had described as a "last chance" to halt the spiralling violence in a conflict that has so far killed more than 5,300.

"It was not easy, and de facto all sorts of unacceptable conditions were put forth to us," Mr Poroshenko said. "But we did not go along with ultimatums."

Mr Poroshenko said Ukraine rejected a push to grant separatist regions autonomy, contending that agreements signed on Thursday envision full reintegration though with greater regional governing authority, after local elections his year.

Mr Putin listed plans for a political settlement that would deal with border and humanitarian issues. But he did not clarify whether or how the sides had resolved their disagreements over Kiev's demands that it regain control over its border with Russia — one of the thorniest issues in the talks.

Mr Putin said he and Mr Poroshenko were both consulting their military experts to understand and resolve the situation in Debaltseve, the eastern Ukrainian town that has become the scene of the heaviest fighting in recent days, with rebels claiming to have encircled thousands of Ukrainian troops there.

The closed-door talks in Minsk were described in a Facebook posting by Valeriy Chaly, deputy head of Ukraine's presidential administration, as a "battle of nerves".

Outside the main Minsk talks, representatives of the eastern Ukraine separatists were meeting representatives from Kiev, Moscow and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe in a separate building. The dual track negotiation was necessary because Mr Poroshenko refused to talk directly with the separatists.

Will This Hold?

I don't know. This sounds like the limited autonomy arrangement in the last failed Minsk accord. But what's in the footnote? Does this mean a limited Federation without using those words? Is everyone tired enough of war to make this stick?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Greece Talks Break Down; Parties Cannot Even Agree On a Statement

Posted: 11 Feb 2015 11:33 PM PST

At midnight, Greece turns into a pumpkin. The clock is clearly ticking but is this the 10th or 11th hour?

Given the eurozone propensity to extend deadline after deadline, it's hard to say precisely what time this is. But we can say Greek Bailout Talks with Europe Break Down.

Eurozone finance ministers' first attempt to grapple with the bailout demands made by the new Greek government broke down in recriminations after the two sides failed even to agree a way to take negotiations forward after six hours of talks in Brussels.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who chairs the committee of his 18 colleagues, said that while he had hoped a blueprint for future talks could have been agreed at the session, no negotiations were scheduled ahead of a self-imposed deadline to reach agreement on a bailout extension by Monday.

Although no final deal on Greece's proposals was in the offing at Wednesday's meeting, senior eurozone officials had hoped that, following days of public sniping over what a new bailout programme might look like, Athens and its creditors could at least find a road map to resolving the standoff.

But officials said even those low expectations were not met and there are currently no talks expected before another meeting of finance ministers on Monday, where eurozone leaders had hoped a deal could be clinched.

According to eurozone officials involved in the talks, a joint statement had been agreed between the finance ministers and Yanis Varoufakis, their new Greek counterpart, that would have held out the chance of reaching a deal to extend Greece's current €172bn programme beyond its February 28 expiration.

But after the meeting broke up, Mr Varoufakis consulted officials in Athens and then raised new objections to the statement's wording, and despite efforts to find an 11th-hour compromise, the statement was scrapped. Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has vowed not to extend the current bailout.

Does Anyone Really Know What Time It Is?

In honor of the 10th, 11th, or whatever hour, I offer this musical tribute.

Link if video does not play: Does Anybody Really Knows What Time It Is?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

sâmbătă, 14 februarie 2015

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