Central Perk

sâmbătă, 11 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Legacy Skills and Capital; Sugar and Steel; Turning TPP to TP

Posted: 11 Apr 2015 08:16 PM PDT

In response to Readers Question Free Trade; Does Nonreciprocal Free Trade Cost Jobs? Paul Krugman "Was" Right!, reader Ken is wondering about legacy capital and the destruction of capital.

Ken writes ...

Hi Mish

I really enjoy your explications of economic ideas, and I think the world really needs them, since many are so economically illiterate.

I do have a question about free trade and loss of capital. My father and uncle both trained at Detroit's illustrious technical high school. My dad went on to college and became a physiology researcher and professor, my uncle developed a state of the art machine shop making rocket engine parts.

When job and factory loss occurs there is also loss of the physical capital of the legacy tools and machines, and not all of them are worthy of obsolescence. In addition there is the loss of human capital embodied in persons and organizations.

Here I am thinking of institutions such as the famed Detroit technical high school, and of individual trained personnel such as the senior master machinist who has years of experience and detailed practical knowledge that can only be relayed in person from a master machinist to a developing journeyman machinist.

I recognize that there is radical technological innovation ongoing, but there still must be some value in this legacy capital. I would be interested if you might address this consequence of free trade in your writing.

Thanks,

Ken

Legacy Capital Disappears Over Time

As technology advances, the value of legacy capital depreciates at varying rates, but skills can change from being very needed to completely obsolete quite fast, even overnight.

Is there any legacy capital left for ability to use a slide rule? I suspect none at all. I have that skill and it is totally useless other than as a conversation piece.

My freshman year in college in an engineering curriculum, knowledge of how to use a slide rule was important. And the better you could use one, the more likely you were to arrive at the correct answer.

One semester later, skill in using slide rules was rendered totally useless. Texas Instruments came out with small hand-held engineering calculators that made the slide rule obsolete, overnight. Having a good slide rule and knowing how to use it was needed one semester, but on day one of the next semester having an engineering calculator was a requirement.

Robots are now doing much machine work. Boeing recently replaced highly skilled riveters with robots that do a far better job with fewer errors. See KUKA Systems develops robotic riveting system for Boeing 777 wide-body fuselage assembly.

Is there legacy capital for highly skilled airplane riveters? The answer is pretty clear: Except for niche applications, need for that skill just vanished.

Over time all sorts of skills become obsolete or relegated to small niches. Horse riding is a good example of niche use. Horse riding skills are needed for jockeys at the racetrack, wild west shows, recreational uses, and perhaps some ranching functions. Unlike the slide rule there is still some demand for horse riding and training, but not like in 1840.

Someday, and sooner than most think, truck driving skills will be of limited use, perhaps even no use at all. Right now, truck driving skills are still valuable.

With that let's return to free trade and tie up some loose ends.

Sugar Lobby

Please consider Powerful US sugar lobby stands between Australian cane growers and a sweet trade deal.

It's the kind of political power Australian agricultural industries can only dream of.

America's sugar producers continue to benefit from government subsidies, import quotas and tariffs, despite the vehement opposition of the influential American business lobby and the agreement of numerous free trade deals, including one with Australia in 2005.

It's long been a sore point for Australian cane growers, who hope the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will bring change.

But while business is optimistic, other political observers in Washington DC say Australia will be lucky to win any concession on sugar.

Scott Miller, from the pro-trade Washington think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said the "political intensity" of the US sugar lobby is "unrivaled" and he's blunt about the prospects for change in the TPP.

"Sugar, I'd hold out no hope for," Mr Miller said.

"The United States has had a sugar protection scheme since about 1794, and that will probably continue through my lifetime."

It's notable that on Capitol Hill, even some who advocate for free trade and support the Trans-Pacific Partnership believe sugar concessions are a bridge too far.

The US Chamber of Commerce represents major sugar manufacturers including Mars, and the Chamber's Asia director Catherine Mellor says protection policies are unfair and don't make economic sense.

"It's raised the cost of sugar in the US and we've lost 30,000 jobs - 30,000 jobs out of Chicago have gone because sugar manufacturers have left the United States to go to Canada so that they can import sugar," she said, calling on American leaders to show courage in tackling sugar subsidies and tariffs in the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations.

Free Trade Agreement?

After 5 years of wrangling TPP is nowhere close to a free trade agreement.

What about Steel?

Looking for more tariffs that likely will not go away? If so, consider steel. Here's a Google search I did for Steel Tariffs.

Scroll down the list and look for recent listings. You will find a bunch of complaints for and against the US and EU.

Steel Tariffs Won't Save Jobs

A decent article to consider is the accurate assessment in July of 2014 by Forbes contributor Tim Worstall who says Why Steel Tariffs Won't Save Jobs. The article even mentions TPP.

The latest round of steel tariffs are a classical, sui generis, example of how politics really works. Larded with a great deal of rhetoric about how this will save jobs, make America great again and possibly improve the flavour of Mom's apple pie the reality is that it protects some number of politically important jobs at the cost of more, less politically important, jobs elsewhere in the economy.

Now with trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic trade talks missing deadline after deadline, Washington is slapping new tariffs on steel imports. This election-year gift to U.S. steel giants and their unions will raise prices for other U.S. firms, handicap domestic energy production and alienate trading partners world-wide.

On Friday the Commerce Department imposed duties on hundreds of millions of dollars in annual trade with South Korea and eight other countries, including India, Vietnam, Turkey and Taiwan. As punishment for allegedly dumping steel into the U.S. market at unfair low prices, South Korea's exporters will face tariffs of about 10% to 16%, while smaller players from other countries face rates up to 118%.

Essentially, what is being repeated is the mistake of the Bush steel tariffs back a decade or so.

As a result of a Section 201 ("safeguard") investigation brought at the behest of the U.S. steel industry, President Bush in March 2002 imposed tariffs on imports of certain steel products for three years and one day. The tariffs, combined with other challenges present in the marketplace at the time and in the months that followed, boosted steel costs to the detriment of American companies that use steel to produce goods in the United States. The resulting negative impact included job losses for thousands of American workers.

200,000 Americans lost their jobs to higher steel prices during 2002. These lost jobs represent approximately $4 billion in lost wages from February to November 2002.

One out of four (50,000) of these job losses occurred in the metal manufacturing, machinery and equipment and transportation equipment and parts sectors.

More American workers lost their jobs in 2002 to higher steel prices than the total number employed by the U.S. steel industry itself (187,500 Americans were employed by U.S. steel producers in December 2002).

Steel Analysis

Does the above sound reasonable? It does to me.

Why? Because US auto and other US manufacturers that use steel in any form had to pay higher prices for it than foreign competition. People bought foreign cars that were better and cheaper.

We saved steel jobs but at far greater expense of other jobs.

Turning TPP to TP

Obama's Trans-Pacific Partnership is not a step in the right direction. It would serve a better use as toilet paper.

For further analysis, please see my article that started this chain of posts: Obama's Trans-Pacific Partnership Fiasco vs. Mish's Proposed Free Trade Alternative; How Will TPP Function in Practice?

I repeat for the third time ...

I am in favor of free trade. An excellent free trade agreement would consist of precisely one line of text. I propose the following agreement: "All tariffs and all government subsidies on all goods and services will be eliminated effective June 1, 2015."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.

Introducing "Spot" the Robo-Dog

Posted: 11 Apr 2015 01:07 PM PDT

Here's a robot gadget that I would actually like but mainly for a reason that I challenge readers to guess.

While watching the video below, in which no robots were harmed in spite of being kicked, think of some reasons for "Spot" the robo-dog made by Boston Dynamics.

Link if video does not play: Introducing Spot.

Spot is a four-legged robot designed for indoor and outdoor operation. It is electrically powered and hydraulically actuated. Spot has a sensor head that helps it navigate and negotiate rough terrain. Spot weighs about 160 lbs.

I think "Spot" will eventually be a big hit for security purposes. In such a mode it would be equipped with a video camera, voice, heat-seeking ability, etc.

Robo-Dog as Animal Deterrent

We have a 1 acre property with huge gardens. Our property is close to a forest preserve. Deer are extremely problematic. They eat nearly everything unless I take other measures.

One bite off the top of a lily and it will not flower in the current year. Repeat bites and it will not survive at all.

I believe a robo-dog like spot roaming the property from dusk to dawn would keep deer and other animals away.

Meanwhile for all you gardeners with a deer problem, I suggest "Mish's Brew".

Mish's Brew

You can find deer repellants at garden shops for about $30 a quart. One quart will fill a two or three gallon container perhaps three times.

The list of ingredients typically says something like "putrefied eggs and garlic extract". $30 seems like a huge price for something so simple.

I thought that I could make that myself. I tried and did. My brew works even better, with fewer clogs than the commercial mix.

Mish's Brew Recipe

In a blending bowl, add one egg and a half cup of "stuff". The "stuff" is combination of garlic powder, onion powder, powdered curry, and powdered cinnamon. Use whatever stuff you like, but it needs to be pure powdered ingredients, not something like garlic salt. If it has salt in it, it will harm or kill your plants.

Anyway take about a half cup of "stuff" whose primary ingredient is garlic powder, add an egg and a couple cups of water. Blend really well for two minutes. The better the blend and the finer the powder, the fewer the sprayer clogs.

Next add a few tablespoons of liquid dish-washing detergent such as Dawn, and a bit more water. Add the detergent later in the mixing process to reduce foaming. Blend another minute or more. The longer the better.

Using a funnel, pour the mix in equal portions in two "strong" quart plastic bottles. Orange juice bottles are better than a milk bottle. I have Mish's Brew eat through the latter.

Fill the quart bottles up with water and shake. Now you have concentrate. Half of that quart bottle is enough to fill a three gallon sprayer.

Choose a sprayer with a metal tip, not the plastic ones. Metal tips clog less frequently and are easier to unclog if the do get clogged.

Again, I have had far better clogging results with my mix than the commercial stuff.

The dish-washing detergent is a wetting agent and the egg acts like a glue that will dry on and stay on. Choose your powdered stuff with care. Sometimes the generic store brand in bulk is the finest powder you can get.

You can also try garlic juice instead of powdered stuff. A cup of juice instead of "stuff" will suffice, and it will clog even less than powders. I am using liquid juice now, with a bit of cinnamon and curry powder added in.

Mish's Brew Really Stinks!

Mish's Brew improves with age. It really stinks! Imagine rotten eggs infused with concentrated garlic.

Don't spray on a windy day.

The smell in the garden will go away within hours, but the brew will stop deer up to a month, even with rains. Whenever you see deer munching again, it is time to spray again.

The critical time to spray is springtime: now. Deer are very hungry and plants are sprouting up. I spray more in Spring and early Summer than other times. Also, if you have flowering shrubs that deer like (viburnums) spray in late autumn so deer do not eat the flower buds. One late spray on shrubs will last the entire winter.

Aging works well. Mish's brew improves the longer it sits, but you can also use it immediately. Don't use Mish's Brew on vegetables or anything you intend to eat!

I have never had my brew harm any plant with two possible exceptions: Clematis and yews. I have seen yew discoloration but I am not positive it is related to my mix or if it was caused by something else. On a couple occasions, it seemed to adversely affect my clematis vines. I will not again spray my clematis vines (and they do not seem to be a deer favorite anyway).

Other than that, I have seen no problems caused by the mix, but please note the mix does not stick well to tulip leaves (nor does the commercial mix). Tulip leaves are very waxy and it runs right off. Tulips and Lilies are among the favorite choices for deer.

No need to spray daffodils, alliums, peonies, bleeding hearts, monks hood, or lamb's ear. Deer also do not touch some groundcovers such as vinca, lamnium, and pachysandra.

Judge from your own experience. Many plants are questionably labeled "deer-resistant".

Until the cost of robo-dog is incredibly cheap (I suspect it will be some day), Mish's Brew will guard my gardens, not robo-dog.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot

Damn Cool Pics

Pablo Picasso's Art Through The Ages

Posted: 10 Apr 2015 09:15 PM PDT

Pablo Picasso was just never satisfied with staying the same because he knew that in order to create great art, you have to evolve as an artist.

Seth's Blog : Five steps to digital hygiene

Five steps to digital hygiene

Washing your hands helps you avoid getting sick.

Putting fattening foods out of your reach helps you stay slim.

And the provocations and habits you encounter in the digital world keep you productive (or drive you crazy):

Turn off mail and social media alerts on your phone.
Don't read the comments. Not on your posts or on the posts of other people. Not the reviews and not the trolls.
De-escalate the anger in every email exchange.
Put your phone in the glove compartment while driving.
Spend the most creative hour of your day creating, not responding.

Each habit is hard to swallow and easy to maintain. Worth it.

• Email to a friend •

vineri, 10 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Incredible Tornado Footage from Illinois, Yesterday
Phone Tax Scam by "Officer Melvin" Allegedly with IRS
France vs. Sydney Australia Property: What Will $600k to $1M Buy?

Incredible Tornado Footage from Illinois, Yesterday

Posted: 10 Apr 2015 04:05 PM PDT

A tornado touched down yesterday in McHenry Illinois, less than 10 miles from where Liz and I live. Tornadoes hit multiple locations.

Here is some incredible footage of a tornado tipping a truck over and debris flying everywhere. This footage is near Rochelle, Illinois.

"Tornado developed west of I-39 and widened as it moved toward the highway. The tornado entered it's wedge stage while crossing the highway and doing significant damage. The tornado then moved away toward the Fairdale community where at least one fatality has taken place and destruction took place. This large tornado churned across a long track and the National Weather Service will survey the damage starting tomorrow. Footage shot by Tyler Olson of Live Storms Media."

Link if video does not play: 4-9-15 Rochelle, Illinois Tornado.

More Tornado Footage

"Around 7pm, we began documenting a tornado forming near the Rochelle, IL area. We briefly lost visual while positioning closer to the tornado, but began filming again when we had visual of the massive tornado. We continued to follow and document the tornado the northeast until it dissipated south of Belvidere, IL at ~7:40pm CDT."

Link if video does not play: Rochelle to Kirkland, IL Complete Tornado Footage

Footage of Homes Being Demolished

Watch a huge tornado directly hit huge grain bins. I am surprised they survived the hit. With debris flying everywhere, some nearby homes didn't.

Link if video does not play: Rochelle, Illinois Tornado April 9 2015

Thanks to reader Mark for the links.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot

Phone Tax Scam by "Officer Melvin" Allegedly with IRS

Posted: 10 Apr 2015 12:31 PM PDT

It is tax season and that means it's time for tax fraud and tax fraud scams. Today I received a voice mail allegedly from "officer Melvin" with the IRS.

"We have received a legal petition notice against you concerning a tax division. So before we file a case against you, and before you get arrested, kindly call us back on our callback number. The number to reach me is 202-684-6608. I repeat 202-684-6608. Do not disregard this message. Do return the call. Again, this is officer Melvyn Betchett with the Internal Revenue service. Thank you and have a great day."

Here is the WAV file if you wish to hear the short 33 second fraud scheme:
Tax Fraud WAV File.

The file may or may not play automatically. It did not for me. Instead I saw this box when I hit the forward arrow to attempt to play.

The download did work, and Windows Media Player played it automatically just fine. Here is the sharable link if you wish to download the file:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QF4MBBMA0kT2diSnFZOXM1Tjg/view?usp=sharing

The IRS sends bills. The IRS does not make phone calls threatening arrest, or ask for your bank account number or debit card number.

I notified the authorities. You can do so at the Treasury Inspector General IRS Impersonation Site.

Hopefully, the audio will allow the authorities to catch crook "Melvin" soon enough.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot

France vs. Sydney Australia Property: What Will $600k to $1M Buy?

Posted: 10 Apr 2015 10:49 AM PDT

Here's an article that came my way from reader Robert who lives in Australia.

The article compares the price of entire "castles" in various cities in France to 1-3 bedroom units in or near Sydney, Australia.

The term castle appears to be somewhat of a misnomer, but certainly the French properties are "castles" compared to the single units.

The US word would more likely be estate or mansion rather than castle.

Please consider 10 French Castles are Cheaper than Sydney Units.

Notes

I show text and images of 4 of the 10 comparisons in the article.
The first image in each set is the price of the entire building in France.
The second image in each set is the price for a single unit in Australia.
The prices appear to be Australian dollars, not US dollars.
The conversion rates from euros in each French listing is inaccurate.

For example the first image below says €422,940 or $597,184. My calculation says AU $654,070 or $502,060 US dollars. The rest of the images are similarly wrong.

Picardie France — $597,184 (€422,940)

This picture-perfect five-bedroom mansion in Picardie near the town of Abbeville is less than 200kms from Paris. It is on more than 6000sq m of land and features a billiard room and grand cellar.

Cronulla Australia — $620,000+

Poitou France — $667,146 (€472,500)

There are nine bedrooms in this grand chateau in the Poitou Charentes region of south western France. It has 1610sq m of landscaped gardens, ceiling medallions, a rotunda dining room, a conservatory and a circular kitchen.

Campsie Australia — $689,000+

In the heart of Campsie on Sixth Ave, a three-bedroom unit in this plain Jane unit block has parking, built-in wardrobes and two balconies.

Vienne France — $732,801 (€519,000)

This elaborate chateau near Vienne has 14 bedrooms, seven reception rooms, a pool, a chapel, a kitchen garden a double-length drawing room and library all on a 1.4ha estate.

Zetland Australia — $760,000+

Picardie France — $972,833 (€689,000)

Just 138kms from Paris, this manor house in La Fere has nine bedrooms, a wine bar, disco, cinema, library and cellar inside, and out the back there is a pool, pool house, sauna, nine-hole golf course and petanque area.

Elizabeth Bay Australia — $999,000+

With a million-dollar price tag, this one-bedroom apartment, has no parking and no balcony, but the Elizabeth Bay apartment on Onslow Ave is all about location, location, location.

Mish Comments

$1,000,000 for one bedroom, no parking, and no balcony vs. a 9 bedroom manor house with a pool, pool house, sauna, nine-hole golf course and petanque area.

I had to look that up. Pétanque (French pronunciation: [petɑ̃k] is a form of boules where the goal is to throw hollow metal balls as close as possible to a small wooden ball called a cochonnet (literally "piglet") or jack, while standing inside a starting circle with both feet on the ground. The current form of the game originated in 1907 in La Ciotat, in Provence, France.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot

Damn Cool Pics

Full Camel In A Giant Oven

Posted: 10 Apr 2015 12:06 PM PDT

In Xinjiang in northwest China, a 450kg (990lb) camel was coated in a lurid yellow marinade before it was lowered by crane into a 6m-tall tandoor kiln.

via people.com

The Rock's Insane Diet Has Him Eating 10 Pounds Of Food A Day

Posted: 10 Apr 2015 11:43 AM PDT

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson takes everything to the next level even his diet. It's recently been revealed that he consumes up to 10 pounds of food a day in order to maintain his physique.

Meal 1:

10 oz cod
2 whole eggs
2 cups oatmeal

Meal 2:

8 oz cod
12 oz sweet potato
1 cup veggies

Meal 3:

8 oz chicken
2 cups white rice
1 cup veggies

Meal 4:

8 oz cod
2 cups rice
1 cup veggies
1 tbsp fish oil

Meal 5:

8 oz steak
12 oz baked potato Spinach salad

Meal 6:

10 oz cod
2 cups rice Salad

Meal 7:

30 grams casein protein
10 egg-white omelet
1 cup veggies
1 tbsp omega-3 fish oil

Notes:

► "I do cardio 4–5 a.m., then take 4–6 scoops of Optimum's Amino Energy."
► "After cardio I eat breakfast [Meal no. 1]."
► "After breakfast I hit the iron for 90 minutes."
► "Post-workout I have 60 grams Optimum Nutrition's Platinum Hydrowhey with 15 grams of glutamine."
► "Thiry minutes later I consume 32 oz of Gatorade.

Elements of Personalization & How to Perform Better in Personalized Search - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

Elements of Personalization & How to Perform Better in Personalized Search - Whiteboard Friday

Posted on: Friday 10 April 2015 — 02:15

Posted by randfish

From information about your location and device to searches you've performed in the past, Google now has a great deal of information it can use to personalize your search results. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand explains to what extent they're likely using that information and offers five ways in which you can improve your performance in personalized search.

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard.

Click on it to open a high resolution image in a new tab!

Video transcription

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're going to chat personalization, talking about the elements that can influence personalization as well as some of the tactical things that web marketers and SEOs specifically can do to help make their sites and their content more personalized friendly.

How personalization works

So, what are we talking about when we're talking about personalization? Well, Google is actually personalizing by a large number of things and probably even a few things I have not listed here that they have not been totally transparent or forthcoming about.

Logged-in visitors

The things that we know about include things like:

Location. Where is the searcher?
Device. What type of device and operating system is the searcher using?
Browser. We have seen some browser specific and operating specific forms of searches. Search history, things that you have searched for before and potentially what you've clicked on in the results.
Your email calendar. So if you're using Gmail and you're using Google Calendar, Google will pull in things that they find on your calendar and data from your email and potentially show that to you inside of search results when you search for very particular things. For example, if you have an upcoming plane flight and you search for that flight number or search around that airline, they may show you, you have an upcoming flight tomorrow at 2:07 p.m. with Delta airlines.
Google+. A lot of folks are thinking of it as dead, but it's not particularly dead, in fact no more so than the last year and a half or so. Google+ results will still appear at the bottom of your search results very frequently if you're logged in and anyone in your Google+ stream that you follow has shared any link or any post in Google+ with the keywords that you've searched for. That's a very broad matching still. Those results can appear higher if Google determines that there's more relevancy behind that. You'll also see Google+ data for people you're connected to when you search for them, that kind of thing.
Visit history. If you have visited a domain while logged into an account many times in the past, I'm not exactly sure how many times or what sort of engagement they look at precisely, but they may bias those results higher. So they might say, "Gosh, you know, you really seem to like eBay when you do shopping. We're going to show eBay's results for you higher than we would normally show them in an incognito window or for someone who's not logged in or someone who isn't as big an eBay fan as you are."
Bookmarks. It's unclear whether they're using just the bookmarks from Google Chrome or the personalization that carries over from Chrome instances or the fact that bookmarks are also things that people visit frequency. There's some discussion about what the overlap is there. Not too important for our purposes.

Logged-out visitors

If you are logged out, they still have a number of ways of personalizing, and you can still observe plenty of personalization. Your results may be very different from what you see in a totally new browser with no location applied to it, on a different device with different search and visit history.

Now, remember when I say "Logged out," I'm not talking about an incognito window. An incognito window would bias against showing anything based on search history or visit history. However, location and device appear to still remain intact. So a mobile device is going to get sometimes different results than a desktop device. Different locations will get different results than other locations. All that kind of stuff.

Now you might ask, "Quantify this for me, Rand." Like let's say we took a sample set of 500 keywords and we ran them through personalized versus non-personalized kinds of searches. What's the real delta in the results ordering and the difference of the results that we see?

Well, we actually did this. It's almost 18 months old at this point, but Doctor Pete did this in late 2013. Using the MozCast data set, he checked crawlers, Google Webmaster Tools, personalized logged in and incognito. You know what? The delta was very small for personalized versus incognito. I suspect that number's probably gone up, which means this correlation number -- 1.0 would be perfect correlation -- 0.977 very, very high correlation. So we're seeing really similar results for personalized versus incognito at least 18 months ago.

I suspect that's probably changed. It'll probably continue to change a little bit. However, I would also say that it probably won't drop that low. I would not expect that you would ever find that it'll be lower than 0.8, maybe even 0.9, just because so much of search is intentional navigation and so much of it is also not fully capable to be personalized in truly intelligent ways. The results are the best results already. There's not a whole lot of personalization that might be added in besides potentially showing your Google+ follows or something at the bottom and things based on your visit history.

Performing better in personalized search

So let's say you want to perform better in personalized search. You have a belief that, hey, a lot of people are getting personalized bias in my particular SERP sets. We're very local focused, or we're very biased by social kinds of data, or we're seeing a lot of people are getting biased in their results to our competitors because of their search history and visit history. What are things that I need to think about?

Get potential searchers to know and love your brand before the query

The answer is you can perform better in personalized search in general, overall by thinking about things like getting potential searchers to know and love your brand and your domain before they ever make the query. It turns out that if you've gotten people to your site previously through other forms of navigation and through searches, you may very well find yourself higher up in people's personalized results as a consequence of the fact that they visited you in the past. We don't know all the metrics that go into that or what precisely Google uses, but we could surmise that there are probably some bars around engagement, visit history, how many times, how frequently in a certain time frame, all that kind of stuff that goes into that search and visit history.

Likewise, if you can bias people here and rank higher, you may be getting more and more benefit. It can be a snowball effect. So if you keep showing up higher in their rankings, they keep clicking you, they keep finding information that's useful, they don't need to go back to the search results and click somebody else. You're just going to keep ranking in more and more of their queries as they investigate things. For those of you who are full funnel types of content servers, you're thinking about people as they're doing research and educating themselves all the way down to the transaction level with their searches, this is a very exciting opportunity.

Be visible in all the relevant locations for your business

For location bias, you want to make sure that you are relevant in all the locations for your business or your service. A lot of times that means getting registered with Google Maps and Google+ local business for maps -- I can't remember what it's called exactly. I think it's Google+ Local for Business -- and making sure that you are not only registered with those places but then also that your content is helping to serve the areas that you serve. Sometimes that can even mean a larger radius than what Google Maps might give you. You can rank well outside of your specific geographies with content that serves those regions, even if Google is not perfectly location connecting you via your address or your Maps registration, those kinds of things.

Get those keyword targets dialed in

Getting keyword targeting dialed in, this is important all the time. Where a lot of people fall down in this is they think, "Hey, I only need to worry about keyword targeting on the pages that are specifically intended to be search landing pages. I'm trying to get search traffic to these pages." But personalization bias means that if you can get keyword targeting dialed in even on pages that are not necessarily search landing pages, Google might say, "Hey, this wouldn't normally rank for someone, but because you've already earned that traffic, because that person is already biased to your brand, your domain, we're going to surface that higher than we ordinarily would." That is a powerful potential tool in your arsenal, hence it's useful to think about keyword targeting on a page specific level even for pages that you might not think would earn search traffic normally.

Share content on Google+ and connect with your potential customers

Google+ still, in my opinion, a very valuable place to earn personalized traffic for two reasons. One, of course you can get people actually over to your site. You may be able to get potential traffic through Google+. You can appear in those search results right at the bottom for anyone who follows you or anyone who's connected to you via email and other kinds of Google apps. You may have also noticed that when you email with someone, if they're using Gmail and their Google+ account is connected, you see in the little right-hand corner there that they'll show their last post or their last few posts sometimes on Google+. Again, also a powerful way to connect with folks and to share the content as you're emailing back and forth with them.

For brands, that also shows up in search results sometimes. There's the brand box on the right-hand side, kind of like Knowledge Graph, and it'll show your last few posts from Google+. So again, more and more opportunities to be visible if you're doing Google+.

I am also going to surmise that, in the future, Google might do stuff with this around Twitter. They just finished re-inking that deal where Twitter gives their full fire hose access to Google and Google starts displaying more and more of that stuff in search results. So I think probably still valuable to think about how that connection might form. Definitely still valuable directly to do it in Google+ even if you're not getting any traffic from Google+.

Be multi-device friendly and usable

Then the last one, of course, being multi-device friendly and usable. This is something where Moz has historically fallen down, and obviously we're going to be fixing that in the months ahead. I actually hope we fix it after April 21st so we can see whether we really take a hit when they do that mobile thing. I think that would be a noble sacrifice, and then we can see how we perform thereafter and then fix it and see if we can get back in Google's good graces after that.

So given these tactics and some of this knowledge about how personalized search works, hopefully you can take advantage of personalized search and help inform your teams, your bosses, your clients about personalization and the potential impacts. Hopefully we'll be redoing some of those studies, too, to be able to tell you, hey, how much more is personalization affecting SEO over the last 18 months and in the years ahead.

All right, everyone. Thanks again for joining us, and we'll see you again next time for another edition of Whiteboard Friday. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

You are subscribed to the newsletter of Moz Blog sent from 1100 Second Avenue, Seattle, WA 98101 United States To stop receiving those e-mails, you can unsubscribe now.	Newsletter powered by FeedPress
FeedPress is a service edited by Beta&Cie, www.betacie.com

Seth's Blog : Why not?

Why not?

If technology gives you the chance to speak up, build a platform and help show the way, why not use it?

If someone offers you a project or a job with more leverage and the chance to both learn and teach, why not take it?

If you can learn something new, more efficiently than ever before, if the opportunity to leap presents itself, why not?

Now is a good time.

• Email to a friend •

sâmbătă, 11 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Seth's Blog : Five steps to digital hygiene

Five steps to digital hygiene

More Recent Articles

vineri, 10 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Elements of Personalization & How to Perform Better in Personalized Search - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

Video transcription

How personalization works

Logged-in visitors

Logged-out visitors

Performing better in personalized search

Get potential searchers to know and love your brand before the query

Be visible in all the relevant locations for your business

Get those keyword targets dialed in

Share content on Google+ and connect with your potential customers

Be multi-device friendly and usable

Seth's Blog : Why not?

Why not?

More Recent Articles

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

sâmbătă, 11 aprilie 2015

vineri, 10 aprilie 2015

Video transcription

How personalization works

Logged-in visitors

Logged-out visitors

Performing better in personalized search

Get potential searchers to know and love your brand before the query

Be visible in all the relevant locations for your business

Get those keyword targets dialed in

Share content on Google+ and connect with your potential customers

Be multi-device friendly and usable

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

Subscribe to