Central Perk

duminică, 19 aprilie 2015

Bing Ads – Universal Device Targeting – The Lowdown

Bing Ads – Universal Device Targeting – The Lowdown

Posted: 18 Apr 2015 12:32 AM PDT

Bing announced the roll-out of Universal Device Targeting (UDT) on Tuesday, along with details of the latest updates to the Bing Ads platform.

I had the pleasure the pleasure of attending the Bing Ads latest ad formats and device targeting capabilities webinar chaired by Katrina Morris (Bing Ads Program Manager) and Joseph Bergin (Bing Ads Technical Support).

Katrina works as a Release and Supportability Program Manager, helping to enable pilots and releases in the EMEA markets. Her main focus is to ensure the Bing Ads releases meet your needs and requirements, and that you have the features you need to succeed in search.

Joseph works as a Technical Support Engineer (TSE) on the Bing Ads Support Team based in Dublin. His main focus is campaign and ad delivery covering Bing Ads Editor, API, campaign creation and management, and answering questions like “Where is my ad?" or "How can I get more clicks?". If you have had such questions you may already have “met” him or his colleagues on-line. Joseph likes nothing better than setting up a call with a customer and helping them out in real time.

The webinar kicked off with the confirmation that Bing consolidated desktop, tablet and mobile targeting into one interface at the end of March, UDT. Were were advised of the three main reasons for this move:

Simplicity: less complicated user interface
Reduced friction: structural similarity across SEM platforms make it easier to manage across campaigns. Easier to copy over from AdWords accounts
Controls: introduced table and mobile bid adjustments

The changes brought in are designed to help with copying campaigns over from Google AdWords, to ensure that similarity in terms of platform usability and features remains whilst boasting some additional features not yet available in Google AdWords:

bingVSadwords

Why not -100 percent bid adjustments for tablet traffic? – Bing Ads and industry sources report tablet conversions to be consistently within 15-20 percent of desktop/laptop ("traditional") conversions.* Given that PC and tablet campaigns perform very similarly, allowing for bid adjustments to span from -20 percent to +300 percent should give advertisers the controls they need to maintain their campaign return on investment (ROI).

In short, Bing Ads have moved to make the campaign structure parallel that of Google AdWords, reducing account management overheads. Bing were quick to inform that they have not and do not want to be seen as merely copying Google, they have also enabled bid modifiers for tablet which is currently unavailable in Google AdWords.

To be able to apply modifiers to tablet and mobile independently is fantastic; much of the client data we analysed post-call showed clear splits between these mobile devices in terms of conversions. Another great addition to the Bing Ads platform is the option to include {if mobile} URLs and the option for mobile preference (detailed further down this post).

So, taking UDT into account, what are the three things we should now be actioning off of the back-end of this update?

Top of the class

Boost the winners, dump the losers. If you previously utilised separate mobile and desktop campaigns you may need to look to update the keywords used as they may now be duplicated post UDT update. These need to be removed. Clearly you will need to keep those that have the highest CTR/CR.

Review your account and identify any campaigns targeting the same keywords
Move duplicates to higher-performing campaigns and delete or pause the lower performers
Consider creating "top performer" campaigns for more aggressive bidding/bid adjustments

“The most critical action that you can take: Review and combine campaigns targeting the same keyword” – Bing

The image below shows an example of how you may look to consolidate campaigns 1 and 2 with the keyword for 'Lilies' into a single campaign.

With the PC/tablet keyword having a quality score of 9, you would keep this keyword and add a bid modifier of -25% bid modify for mobile as the bid was 25% less than that on desktop and tablet.

Bid wisely

Bing advised that they generally see that mobile bids are around 30% cheaper than desktop, so if you are not targeting mobile, review your strategy. Note here though that this will vary by vertical, but in general mobile now seems to be an opportunity worth exploring. Experiment with the modifiers!

If you have legacy campaigns that are not opted in for mobile, think again. If your site is mobile friendly then not bidding for mobile may in-fact be harming your overall goal.

Test different combinations of bids and bid adjustments to find your key mobile ROI.

Think about your overall budget, with additional mobile traffic you will need additional budget to take into account the increased traffic volume. Note that any changes to your desktop bid in the example above will make changes to the mobile and tablet bids due to the bid modifiers in-place, so you may then need to adjust the modifiers accordingly.

Modifiers can be set up at campaign and ad group level; note though that any modifiers set-up at adg roup level will override those set up at campaign level.

Mobilize

Tell potential customers that you are 'mobile-first'.

Use keywords and ad text like 'mobile' and 'smartphone' where possible. "Order now from your mobile" for example
If you have a mobile-specific URL, be sure to use it… "m.example.com"
Utilise mobile-friendly ad extensions such as location, call and app

"Conversion rates for smartphone shoppers on mobile-optimised sites is 160% higher than on non-optimised sites" – Bing

If an ad group has both mobile-preferred and regular ads, only mobile-preferred ads serve on mobile devices, and only regular ads serve on PCs and tablets. Don't forget to set up mobile-only ads, this will ensure that you can deliver your desired message to searchers rather than potentially losing that message when not all ad text is displayed on a mobile device from a non-mobile preferred ad.

Make sure as well that you have both mobile preferred and non-mobile preferred extensions set up correctly to ensure they are displayed on the correct device type. Note: mobile preference cannot be set at the adgroup level. If all sitelinks in an ad group are set to 'mobile preferred' some may be displayed on tablet/PC if there are no other sitelinks available to use.

mobilepreferred

As mentioned above, if you have a mobile site (m.xxxxxxxx) ensure that you utilise the {if mobile} destination URL query string so that you direct mobile users to your mobile optimised site. For example {ifmobile:m.thisis-anexample.com}.

What is up-and-coming with Bing Ads?

Recent Updates (Within past 3 months)

Unified device targeting (UDT)
Bing Ads Editor 10.7 – new improvements to allow edits of synced keywords, improved download logic and improved radius target management
Annotation launches – 3rd party data is added, including Twitter icon to your ads across Europe along with other annotations including Top Ads which is already deployed in Germany
Bing ads home tabs – allowing you to gain a quick snapshots and trends in account performance

Mid term Updates (3-6 months)

App extensions – Allow for driving app downloads through an extension format and also includes dynamic OS detection to ensure corrects aps are displayed for each OS type
Search Remarketing (Pilot) – Bing are currently piloting first stage of their re-targeting product which includes audience bid boosting
Image Ads – New rich ad format. New extension format that will allow for up-to 3 hi-res images to be applied to your top ads to provide greater real-estate on your mainline ads
Campaign planner – Will allow for vertical trends and competitor trends analyses for key metrics

Longer term (6+ months)

Microsoft Login Change – Migration completed for Bing Ads login to the Microsoft Account ID which will become mandatory later this year we are told with an aim to improve account security
New ad extensions – Form Extension with calendar input, allow users to input formats such as date, email or postcode and link directly with booking/reservations engine. Call-out extensions to showcase business USPs
Schedule extensions – Allow for more precise control over ad investments with start/end dates/times

So, taking all the above in, what’s recommended to act on now?

Upgrade to enhanced sitelinks to allow for richer extension content, particularly for brand campaigns to gain great real-estate on the SERPs
Review your device targeting; if you are targeting mobile separately at the moment, look at structure and combine your campaigns
Ensure that mobile sitelinks are set-up and ads are selected for mobile preference
Once combined, look to ad in mobile/tablet bid modifiers
Get ready for search re-marketing (RLSA as we know from Google AdWords), deploy UET (universal Event Tracking) directly into your site or via your chosen tag manager partner (The full features of UET will not be usable, but in it will be good to analyse in the short term in light of the greater benefit when search re-marketing rolls out later this year)
And finally, check out the new richer insights and auction insights, bid landscape, opportunities tab, and top mover reports to help you capitalise and make well informed decisions for your investment with Bing ads

There looks to be a lot of new features on the way and it seems Bing Ads may one day indeed be a serious contender to Google dominance in the marketplace. Watch this space…

I’d love to hear your thoughts & experience so far on UDT and UET, so feel free to get in touch through the comments below or on Twitter.

The post Bing Ads – Universal Device Targeting – The Lowdown appeared first on White.net.

Seth's Blog : Seen, heard, gotten, changed

Seen, heard, gotten, changed

Most of the news/advice/insight you run into is merely seen. You might acknowledge that something is happening, that something might work, that a new technique is surfacing.

Sometimes, if you work at it, you actually hear what's being said. You engage with the idea and actively roll it around, considering it from a few angles.

But rarely, too rarely, we actually get what's going on, we understand it well enough to embrace it (or reject it). Well enough to teach it. And maybe that leads to a productive change.

It's not clear to me that more stuff seen leads to more ideas gotten and more action taken. We probably don't need more inputs and noise. We certainly need to do a better job of focusing and even more important, doing the frightening work of acting as if and see if we get it.

It starts with more doing, not more seeing.

• Email to a friend •

sâmbătă, 18 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Humanoid Robot Wows Crowd, Reacts to Facial Expressions, Can Engage in Conversation and Make Eye Contact

Posted: 18 Apr 2015 07:06 PM PDT

"Ham" the humanoid robot drew crowds at a Hong Kong electronics event this week. Designed by US firm Hanson Robotics, Ham can recognize and respond to human facial expressions in natural way.

Please consider Aye, robot?

With his lively eyebrows, winkled cheeks and eyes that follow you around the room - this state-of-the-art robotic head is menacingly lifelike.

The head, designed by American robotics designer David Hanson, is able to answer basic questions and can also be used in the simulation of medical scenarios

Ham is currently on exhibit at the Global Sources spring electronics show at AsiaWorld Expo - the largest event of its kind in the world, with more than 4,000 booths displaying the latest gadgets.

The head is created with malleable material called Frubber using soft-bodied mechanical engineering and nanotechnology.

It contains realistic pores that measure just 4 to 40 nanometers across (there are 10million nanometers in one centimetre).

Using specialised software the machine can recognise and respond to a number of human facial expressions in a natural way.

According to Hanson Robotics's website, the humanoids can actually see your face, make eye contact with you, and understand speech to 'engage you in witty dialogue'.

Such reactions are a major feat of engineering, according to chief designer David Hanson, the founder and and president of Hanson Robotics.

Questions on Ham

Do you find this amazing, creepy, amazingly creepy, fascinating, or something else?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot

Productivity, Robots, China, Growth

Posted: 18 Apr 2015 11:36 AM PDT

Congratulations. You are more productive than ever. Just don't expect to be paid more for it. In reality, some machine is doing all that for you.

Japan Times reports Robots Leave Behind Chinese Factory Workers

According to the International Federation of Robotics, an association of academic and business robotics organizations, China bought approximately 56,000 of the 227,000 industrial robots purchased worldwide in 2014 — a 54 percent increase on 2013. And in all likelihood, China is just getting started. Late last month, the government of Guangdong Province, the heart of China's manufacturing behemoth, announced a three-year program to subsidize the purchase of robots at nearly 2,000 of the province's — and thus, the world's — largest manufacturers. Guangzhou, the provincial capital, aims to have 80 percent of its factories automated by 2020.

The government's involvement in this process shouldn't come as a surprise. The Chinese government (nationally, and in Guangdong) has long wanted to shift the country's manufacturing away from low-quality products that are manually assembled and toward higher-value ones — like automobiles, household appliances and higher-end consumer electronics — that require the precision of automation.

And it's no secret that demographics aren't on the side of China's traditional, labor-driven factories. Urbanization, population control policies, and cultural shifts have pushed China's average birth rate below those in more developed countries like the United States. Meanwhile, as a result of growing urban affluence, workforce participation rates are in decline, especially among women. Together, these factors are pushing wages upward, with an average annual increase of 12 percent since 2001. That trend offers plenty of incentive to factory owners and government officials to pursue automation.

Of course, what looks sensible from the perspective of the economic planner's office is more distressing from the factory floor. In March, Caixin, a Chinese business magazine, reported that Midea, a major Chinese manufacturer of air-conditioners and other appliances, plans to cut 6,000 of its 30,000 workers in 2015 to make way for automation. By 2018, it will cut another 4,000. What will happen to those and the millions of other low skill workers who will be displaced by the shift?

When Foxconn, the contract manufacturer for many Apple products, announced in 2011 that it was beginning a three-year program to replace some of its workers with as many as 1 million robots, the company said it was doing so out of a "desire to move workers from more routine tasks to more value-added positions in manufacturing such as R&D." But even if those intentions were sincere, Foxconn never gave any indication that it would have enough higher-skilled positions to employ every displaced iPhone assembler.

Still, it's easy to see how China's millions of low-skill workers might still be left with an uncomfortable sense of impending obsolescence — a sense not unknown to their working class counterparts in more developed economies.

Their best hope is the simple fact that China's economy continues to grow. True, at a projected 7 percent for 2015, the country is not growing as fast as a decade ago. But that should be plenty fast enough for China's shrinking labor force to find other opportunities, and avoid competing — for now — with China's inevitable robot workforce.

Growth Hope Not the Answer

If China's best hope is growth, then China has little hope.

Two to three percent growth is the best China can hope for, on average, over the next decade or so. Growth in robots though, is here to stay.

Chinese growth (global growth too) is headed one way, lower, and at a faster pace than most think. The key problems are debt, demographics, and asset bubbles.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot

RIMC 2015 Key Takeaways

Posted: 16 Apr 2015 05:22 PM PDT

Today Daniel Bianchini will be live blogging and tweeting from the RIMC conference over in Iceland. To make things easier we have organised the sessions by topic so that you can click on the internal anchor below.

Content & Social
Search
Google & Mobile
Search & Dispaly

We will be updating throughout the day, although we are one hour behind the UK.

Speaker: Theo Cooper – Untold Agency – Emotional landscapes: the importance of storytelling and content in the travel industry

A lot of lip service is currently being paid to storytelling in marketing but it's time for the marketing world to put its money where its mouth is. Charting a course through a diverse set of reference points including personal experience, ancient history and the latest statistics this is about looking for the emotional heart of storytelling in an increasingly data driven world.

Story telling isn’t new, it has always been here, it has just become more of a buzzword.
Tell relevant, emotional stories.
We have been blind sided by technology – Story telling is catching up.
The medium doesn’t replace the message.
Stories are how we communicate, it’s not content.
A combination of technology and emotion is how you tell a story. It’s not always just about twitter or facebook.
“Agencies say they want funny, but they don’t pick up the phne to me..” – Jimmy Carr. If you want a great joke get a comedian, if you want a great story hire a story teller.
Build trust by being authoriative, using the best story tellers and resources.
Content that works online is those that teach, which is seen across all verticals.
Show don’t tell, render it visible and catch the essence of the story.
Use your content to create experiences, not just describe.
Take your time. Content strategy doesn’t happen overnight.
A genuine content strategy looks beyond just the product, but encompasses what works. It takes time, and you need to get buy in from those brands.
Don’t try to be too descriptive, and lose the story that you are telling.
Brands are not being bold enough to make content strategy work.
If the data is telling you the story, then don’t fight it.

Twitter: @untoldagency

Speakers: Meri Sørgaard & Kim Herlung – SMFB Engine – The consumer's decision is always on!

It is all about engaging the right people, for the right reasons, at the right time with relevant content and never loosing eyesight's of the KPI's that you set.
During this session, we want to illustrate that creativity is a force multiplier in a digital world. It is contagious; it communicates and yields fantastic results

Provide the right content at the right time, in the right place.
You should be “Think[ing] less like an advertiser and more like a publisher”
“Every customer is different, every working relations need to be tailor made”
Communication, cooperation, dedication and appreciation ensure the client gets what they need from the campaign.
“Unique process for every single costomer requires equal interest fomr all sides”
Success is not always about a number, but hitting the business objectives

Twitter: @smfbengin

Speaker: Emma Lundgren – Unruly – The ten commandments of social video

Want to hit that social sweet spot? Follow the ten commandments of social video! Unruly guides you through the do’s and don’ts of content creation, distribution and helps you navigate through the digital djungle.

Speaker: Takin Kroop – The New Customer Journey

With the emergence of the social networks, businesses are now possible to talk and interact with their target group on a new level. Takin Kroop will take us through how the Facebook has changed the customer journey – and how you can leverage it to make it work for you.

Search

Speaker: Alex Moss – FireCask – Search track The Other Side of Optimisation – Internal Productivity & Efficiency

Whilst some talks at RIMC will focus on SEO strategy itself, any project is hindered without the correct management. My presentation will focus on how to best use online tools in order to manage your client or in-house projects in a more efficient and collaborative manner. As well as this, improving your own businesses’ productivity will produce better quality work within shorter timescales.

Everyone in general is on a device all the time. Whether it be a phone, laptop and/or smart watch
Always being on means that you build relationships and a community.
Use @feedly to control noise pollution, but use RSS Bot and Squirt.io to help you read quicker.
For leads, you can use Salesforce or Capsule, but Gmail and Chrome is much easier!
Use Mighty Text to send text messages directly from your inbox
Use mail track app to track email delivery like What’s App
Remember the Milk is a great tool for keeping your to-do list organised.
Use Rapportive to get more information about the person you’re emailing & Boomerang for automation of email.
Use Slack to improve internal communication. It is easy to create channels, private groups, and to manage.
You could use Excel for Project management but Alex recommends either Trello or Wrike.
For transfer large files you should be using We Transfer or Infinit.
To manage your code better use Sublime Text, BitBucket and SourceTree from Atlassian

Alex’s slides are below, where all the tools he mentioned are.

Twitter: @alexmoss

Michael added unroll.me as a tool that combines all your newsletters into one and provides a single email at the end of each day.

Speaker: Sante Achille – Achille – Structured Data: Using Schema.org Markup To Take your Website to the Next Level

Learn how to markup correctly any website using schema and go far beyond traditional Rich Snippets. See real life examples in a number of fields (travel,
legal, the arts) and how content (not only items) can be marked up and offer to search engines detailed information on structure and shed light on semantic interconnections. Gain strategic insights and key takeaways on how to implement schema markup within an existing design and avoid "breaking it".

Entities can interact with other entities, which then means they can become linked. By telling a search engine what these entities are, it can become even more powerful.
You should be using microdata to provide the search engines with more of an understanding of what the page is communicating.
Use Schema.org to find the right mark-up for your business
You can test your implementation using Google’s testing tool https://developers.google.com/structured-data/testing-tool/
Make sure you are constantly testing your data types.
Use schema-creator.org to have build your mark-up.

Twitter: @sjachille

Speaker: Peter Handley – theMediaFlow – Stay on Top of your Tech SEO

Peter Handley, Director of theMediaFlow, will be letting you into the trade secrets of technical brilliance at RIMC 2015 to help you master the ability to drive traffic and conversions. His talk will give an insight into all the top tools and tips you need from start to finish to keep the technical SEO of your website optimal

Technical audits are not the last time you should be checking the technical aspects of your SEO.
Use ScreamingFrog when crawling websites.
Make sure that page integrity is maintained. If you have broken links, then fix it. If you have internal redirects, then update your links.
Check your duplicate content through www. vs non-www, forwards slash vs non-forward slash. Use copyscape.
You should be checking GWT regularly and actioning any issues identified.
For checking pagespeed use Pingdom, Web Page Test and Google Pagespeed Insights.
If you are taking your site down for maintenance then make sure you return a 503 status code.

twitter: @ismepete

Speakers: Tejal Patel & Collette Easton – Microsoft/Linkdex – Consumer Status: Complicated!

Users search using a variety of language. Microsoft Mobile have a comprehensive and sophisticated view of this market through the large scale data analysis that Linkdex provides. This aggregated analysis helps Microsoft Mobile understand the most visible pages, people and publishers; the value of each and how much influence each has over those consumer experiences. This session will explore how.

Speaker: Lukasz Zelezny – uSwitch – Making Sense Of Your Analytics

Failures to interpret data can often create missed opportunities when brands become unable to make well-informed, insight driven actions. This session will show you how to develop best practices for data analysis; utilising analytics strategies and tactics that can better equip your brand to meet business objectives and develop effective future strategic actions.

The fear of bounce rate & effective visits – you cannot control all keywords you rank for, so can’t control bounce – @ismepete
Use effective visits as it represents a real quality of traffic and it’s value
Use effiect visits because it reflects on page optimisation
Undersatnd your business goals and KPIs before you are able report accurately.

twitter: @lukaszZelezny

Google & Mobile

Speaker: Gary Illyes – Google – Wearables, Mobile, and the Internet as we Know it

“When I ask my phone what are the top attractions in Iceland, it talks back to me and amongst others, it suggests the Golden Circle. Driving around I use Google Maps to navigate which also tells me in real time which roads are inaccessible, and when we are at Gullfoss, looking for information about the waterfall I specifically look for results that lead to pages optimised for my mobile device. The internet is changing, it’s changing fast, and you must be prepared.”

“Would you leave your home without your mobile phone” – Only one person said yes!
Google have been preaching for 7 years to have a mobile optimised website.
On the 21st April, Google will be making the biggest update to their algorithm since Panda and Penguin by updating their stance on Mobile.
Any pages that are not mobile friendly on the 21st April will be demoted within the SERPs
This is a real-time algorithm update and when a change is made, it will be instant once re-crawled.
Google will be creating an FAQs for Mobile, but this is not ready yet.

Twitter: @methode

Search & Display

Speaker: Christopher Engman – Vendemore – What is Account Based Marketing and why is it growing so fast?

Experiences from 100+ Fortune 500 companies in 6 continents How do you combine Account Based Marketing, Marketing Automation and Content Marketing? Which are the top KPIs used to evaluate marketing supporting complex B2B sales?

Customer memory is short and unreliable which makes relying on internal selling risky.
The customers memory dwindles throughout the sales process.
Account based marketing is for those that have long decision proicess – Months to years
Account based marketing is for those that have 40 to several hundred stakeholders
Account based marketing is for those that have high risk in the decision
Companies isolated in media by IP-numbers

Speaker: Russell McAthy – BlueGlass – Buzzwords Suck! Attribution, Performance Reporting and Competitor Analysis under the microscope

The world of digital business is changing and the ability to understand how consumers are finding, engaging and purchasing from your brand is difficult.
The digital landscape allows us to track many things – however buzzwords are making things complicated not simpler.
In this session Russell will discuss a few buzzwords that we come across in a digital marketing world and how to action change in your organisation to make data led decisions. Attribution, Performance Reporting and Competitor/Market Analysis will come under the microscope and you will leave with 3 key takeaways to go back to the office with insights not just data.

It would be great to hear your thoughts on the comments above either below or over on twitter @danielbianchini

The post RIMC 2015 Key Takeaways appeared first on White.net.

Seth's Blog : "What have you got?"

"What have you got?"

The wrong answer to this question is often, "what do you need?"

When someone asks what you have to offer, when they ask for a menu or a price list or some indication of what they can choose from, it's tempting to ask what they want, because maybe, just maybe, you'll figure out how to make that for them.

When you act like a short-order cook at a diner, people rarely ask you for something interesting. Instead of trying to figure out what will get us picked, we might figure out if there's a way we can sell people on dreaming about what we have instead.

• Email to a friend •

vineri, 17 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Denials Mount as Greece Robs Peter to Pay Paul; Shell Games and Check Kiting
Déjà Vu Weather? No, It's a Recession!
Peugeot Introduces Self-Driving Car Features for 2018
Nothing Magical About 2% Inflation Target Says Bernanke

Denials Mount as Greece Robs Peter to Pay Paul; Shell Games and Check Kiting

Posted: 17 Apr 2015 07:36 PM PDT

Denials in Greece about its sorry state of affairs are now so ridiculous that even some ardent Greek supporters are likely laughing out loud (off the record of course).

Please consider Greece Scrapes Bottom of Barrel in Hunt for Cash to Stay Afloat.

Greece will need to tap all the remaining cash reserves across its public sector -- a total of 2 billion euros ($2.16 billion) -- to pay civil service wages and pensions at the end of the month, according to finance ministry officials.

Greece's finance ministry denied that it would need to tap remaining cash reserves to meet salary payments, without providing any figures.

"News agencies' reports that refer to the state's cash reserves are groundless, we categorically deny them," the ministry said in a short statement on Friday.

"This is the last bit of cash that the Greek state has," a senior finance ministry official, who requested anonymity, told Reuters.

For months, the government has been borrowing from different parts of the state administration, including the Athens subway system, to pay the wages and pensions of public sector workers. Now, however, it is reaching the end of the line.

Finance ministry officials say the state's cash balance will be negative from April 20 if the government does not extract the 2 billion euros in cash deposits remaining in various public bodies, including a handful of pension funds and regional administrations.

Without that money, the state would be 1.6 billion euros short of what it needs to pay month-end salaries and wages.

Regular tax revenues, which start flowing in early in the month, should help the state's financial position of course. Tax revenues had begun to slip early in the year, when Tsipras' government was elected, but have stabilized since to around 4 billion euros a month.

Still, the financial pressure will not subside because Athens faces a new round of payments to the IMF next month. It needs to give the IMF 950 million euros by May 12 -- then domestic commitments kick in once again.

Shell Games and Check Kiting

One can only keep these rob Peter to Pay Paul shell games going so long. Eventually they always blow up. Of course, if Greece convinces creditors to lend it more money, of if the Troika decides to unleash more funds, perhaps Greece can make it until June.

None of those seem likely to say the least. And even if Greece pulls off one more shell game miracle, this will all blow up in June anyway unless tax revenue soars between now and then.

The game in play at the moment is for the Greek government to lay the blame for Grexit on the Troika. That is still possible if the ECB cuts off funding or imposes capital controls.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot

Déjà Vu Weather? No, It's a Recession!

Posted: 17 Apr 2015 01:01 PM PDT

New Seasonal Pattern?

Yesterday Fed Governor Stanley Fischer proclaimed U.S. Economy Should Rebound After 'Poor' First Quarter.

"There's definitely a rebound on the way already, and we'll see at what speed it proceeds," Mr. Fischer said during an interview on CNBC. "The first quarter was poor. That seems to be a new seasonal pattern. It's been that way for about four of the last five years.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said Wednesday that he thinks a "strong case" can be made to raise rates at the Fed's June policy meeting, and suggested the economy's recent performance may have been weighed down by temporary factors.

U.S. wage growth has been stagnant for years, but many economists expect pay raises will accelerate as the labor market continues to tighten. "There are more signs every day, and lots of papers come through my computer explaining that this is the turning point, right now," Mr. Fischer said. "But they've been coming for a while."

Déjà Vu All Over Again

The Atlanta Fed Macro Blog investigates Fisher's claim in Déjà Vu All Over Again.

Output in the first quarter has grown at a paltry 0.6 percent during the past five years, compared to a 2.9 percent average during the remaining three quarters of the year.

What's causing this pattern? Well, it could be we just get really unlucky at the same time every year. Or, it could be a more technical problem with seasonal adjustment after the Great Recession (this paper by Jonathan Wright covers the topic using payroll data). It also seems likely that we can just blame the weather (see this Wall Street Journal blog post).

Whatever the reason for the first-quarter weakness, it appears to be happening again. Our current quarterly tracking estimate—GDPNow—has first-quarter growth hovering just above zero. As for the rest of the year, we'll have to wait and see. We of course hope it follows the postrecession pattern.

Pattern Real or Imaginary?

Is there really a pattern?

I see two weak Q1s, one weak Q3, and one weak Q4.

If you call anything under 2% annualized growth weak, then Q2 had two weak quarters as well. Is this a pattern or a random fluctuation?

Regardless, Fisher's claim that a poor Q1 "seems to be a new seasonal pattern. It's been that way for about four of the last five years" is false. What really happened was two "bad" as opposed to "weak" Q1 quarters in five years, and that brought down the Q1 average.

Even if that constitutes a pattern, it's as likely to be random or meaningless than "new seasonality".

Questioning Fisher's Optimism

If this winter took a couple ticks off GDP, and even if there is a "pattern", does that warrant Fisher's Optimism?

No it doesn't. Fisher's optimism is only reasonable if the weakness was entirely weather related and the underlying fundamentals are the same.

Neither is true. In fact, I think a recession has started.

It's a Recession

The US dollar is up 22% since the beginning of the year. That is sure to hurt exports.
The US economy lost over 100,000 high-paying oil related jobs. See the WSJ report Oil Layoffs Hit 100,000 and Counting
Hikes in minimum wage by Walmart, McDonalds, etc. will not only hurt corporate profits, but they will slow expansion plans. Would you want to buy a McDonald's franchise with all this pressure for $15 wages?
Credit conditions are recessionary, and you cannot blame this on the weather. See my report Credit Crunch Underway: Can Recession Be Far Behind?
Equities and junk bonds are in a clear blowoff bubble. A huge correction is long overdue. Indeed, it would take a 33% haircut just to get equities back to reasonable valuations.

Finally, this is the start of the 7th year of an expansion. The San Francisco Fed notes "NBER records show that, over the period from the mid-1940s until 2007, the average recession lasted 10 months, while the average expansion lasted 57 months, giving us an average business cycle of 67 months or about 5 years and seven months."

I am increasingly confident in my recession call. In fact, unless data immediately rebounds and holds over the next two months, a recession has likely started.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot

Peugeot Introduces Self-Driving Car Features for 2018

Posted: 17 Apr 2015 11:34 AM PDT

Not wanting to be left behind in the race for autonomous cars, French manufacturer Peugeot says the 508 Peugeot Model will contain "self-driving aids for bottleneck situations." Via translation from l'informaticien.

Imagine a car that automatically adapts to a bottleneck ahead, handling the "accordion " for you. All drivers who have experienced long minutes of wait will welcome what Peugeot will do in 2018.

Peugeot has not yet fully detailed his concept: it is not known if the driver will completely do something else for a traffic jam or if it will still "attend" the car in one way or another. Other manufacturers are working on these kinds of concepts, including the BMW-Mercedes-Audi Germans.

Driverlesscar Evolution

This is yet another way people will get accustomed to letting technology take over. If drivers get comfortable letting the car drive in slow-speed setups and parking, that comfort will quickly spread to higher speeds and more situations.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Nothing Magical About 2% Inflation Target Says Bernanke

Posted: 17 Apr 2015 12:44 AM PDT

It's pretty rare for former Fed chair Ben Bernanke to say much of anything that makes any sense. He recently did, just not in context.

"I don't see anything magical about targeting 2 percent inflation," Bernanke told a conference in Washington sponsored by the International Monetary Fund.

Given that inflation targeting is quite stupid, that sentence in isolation may cause some to believe common sense seeped into Bernanke's brain.

Alas, his brain actually went into reverse: Bernanke Open to Raising Inflation Target Fed Struggles to Meet.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke suggested that he would be open to an increase in the central bank's 2 percent inflation target.

"I don't see anything magical about targeting 2 percent inflation," he told a conference in Washington sponsored by the International Monetary Fund.

His comments come as the Fed and other major central banks are struggling to prevent their economies from falling into a disinflationary trap of diminished expectations. IMF officials have proposed that the monetary authorities raise their inflation goals to help limit the danger of future deflation.

Some economists, such as professor Laurence Ball of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, have called on the Fed to raise its target to 4 percent. Others, such as Scott Sumner of Bentley University in Waltham, Massachusetts, argue that the Fed should adopt a goal for the growth of nominal gross domestic product, rather than focusing on a price index.

Bernanke pointed to a number of practical difficulties in making a change in the Fed's objective. Such a switch could cause confusion among the public about the central bank's intentions and undermine its credibility, he said.

[And pray tell, what credibility is that?]

Bernanke also made the case in his presentation for keeping the Fed's balance sheet big in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

[Is that an indication he is clueless about how to unwind it?]

"Most other major central banks have permanently large balance sheets and are able to implement monetary policy without problems," he said.

[Just like no one could see housing as a problem until the bubble burst?]

Bernanke said he was not making a recommendation about how big the balance sheet ultimately should be. Instead, he said, he was trying to encourage debate about the issue.

Open For Debate

If Bernanke genuinely wants debate, I am game. In fact, I bet we could raise millions of dollars for charity if he was.

But he won't. He is no more willing to debate than my dead Aunt Martha is likely to ring my doorbell tomorrow.

Besides, please notice the framework for discussion. It is not about whether there should be an inflation target (of course there should be no such thing), but rather how high it should be and whether or not there should be any limits on Fed asset purchases.

But hey, since the Fed cannot hit 2% inflation, why not strive for 6%, 8% or 18%? What does it matter anyway?

Any idiotic number is as good as any other given the Fed has no credibility in hitting targets while ignoring every asset bubble that comes along. Besides, we all know that in spite of Bernanke's comments, it really is magic.

It Really Is Magic

Link if video does not play Oh Ho Ho It's Magic

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

duminică, 19 aprilie 2015

Bing Ads – Universal Device Targeting – The Lowdown