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miercuri, 22 aprilie 2015
All the latest news from people you know
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Ukraine Update: Not Quiet on the Eastern Front; Sanitized US News; Wakeup Call From Poland
- How to Eliminate Illegal Competition
- The Chicago Penalty
- ECB Squeezes Greece on Collateral; Humorous Lies of the Day; Capital Controls Likely Soon
| Ukraine Update: Not Quiet on the Eastern Front; Sanitized US News; Wakeup Call From Poland Posted: 22 Apr 2015 08:31 PM PDT Judging from Western media, one might think nothing much is happening in Ukraine. Facts are wildly different as we will discuss momentarily. Rush to Judgment As a prelude to current events, please recall the hype when Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was gunned down in March. Western media rushed to judgment. Heck, even friends who should know better rushed to judgment. Every Western news agency, even some I would have expected better of, was quick to point the finger at Putin. I commented on Boris Nemtsov on March 6 in Rush to Judgment and Extremely Inaccurate Reporting. With that backdrop, let's turn our attention to some recent events. Death Squads Kill Four News Reporters in Ukraine On April 17, Death Squads Killed Four News Reporters in Ukraine in 24 Hours. Over the last two days in Ukraine, there have been four prominent killings. On Wednesday, it was former member of Parliament from the Regions Party, leader of the All-Ukrainian Officers' Union, and one of the founders of the AntiMaidan, Oleg Kalashnikov. On Thursday, it was journalist Sergei Sukhobok, one of the founders of the ProUA and Obkom websites. That same day, former editor of the major newspaper Segodnia, well-known journalist Oles' Buzina, was shot dead in his own backyard; and the body of editor-in-chief of the Netishinskii Herald, Olga Moroz, was found dead in her apartment, bearing signs of a violent death.Page 18 What did those journalists have in common? They were all against the war effort or considered "pro-Russian". Had four anti-Putin journalists bit the dust in Russia, this would have been front page news for six straight days. The New York Times devoted exactly one paragraph to the Ukraine killings on page A18 of the Friday, April 17th edition. A Ukrainian journalist with a vocal pro-Russian stance was killed in Kiev, the capital, by unidentified gunmen on Thursday, a day after a pro-Russian lawmaker was killed in a similar attack. The journalist, Oles Buzina, 45, publicly opposed the protests that led to the ouster of President Viktor F. Yanukovych in 2014. The current president, Petro O. Poroshenko, called for a swift investigation and declared that the recent killings were "conscious provocations" intended to "destabilize domestic politics in Ukraine." President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said Ukraine's government was allowing a campaign of political violence against supporters of the previous government.Note the slant by Poroshenko. Supposedly Putin is killing pro-Russia supporters! This is what constitutes "reporting" in the US. Wakeup Call From Poland Please consider Polish General 'Calls Back Support' of Ukraine over Nationalist Glorification Retired General Waldemar Skrzypczak, an influential figure in the Polish military, says he withdraws all words of support for Ukraine due to the country's sliding towards nationalism. Earlier he advocated supplying heavy weapons to Kiev.Sanitized US News The above was from RT, but the translation would be the same from any source. Don't like RT? How about Newsweek? Please note that Newsweek (Polish Edition) reports Poland Claims US Is Responsible for Destabilization in Ukraine. This is an English translation courtesy of Watching America Published in Newsweek (Poland) on 16 March 2015 by Marta Ciastoch Translated from Polish by Justyna Demuth. "The U.S. has spent $5 billion on the Ukrainian revolution, the snipers who shot Euromaidan protesters came from the West, the annexation of Crimea was a justified action, and Nemtsov was killed by Americans," claims Janusz Korwin-Mikke, a Polish member of the European Union, in the interview for a Ukrainian TV program "Shuster Live."The US is supporting neo-Nazis and murderous thugs in Ukraine because we prefer those thugs over Russia. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot |
| How to Eliminate Illegal Competition Posted: 22 Apr 2015 12:22 PM PDT Tired of illegal competition? Well, who isn't? And the Quitman Georgia police department has an ad that can help.  By the way, I believe in legalizing drugs. I just found this humorous. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot |
| Posted: 22 Apr 2015 11:23 AM PDT Chicago Pays Price to Get the Deal Done Comparisons on the Bond Buyer in regards to Tuesday's offerings show Chicago Schools Pay Price to Get Deal Done. The top yield of 5.63% on a 25-year maturity landed 285 basis points over the Municipal Market Data's triple-A benchmark.The Penalty Not only did Chicago have to pay a 285 basis point penalty over top rated bonds, it paid 185 basis points over similarly rated bonds even though the bonds contained an alternate pledge of state aid, and even though Illinois law does not "yet" allow bankruptcy. Why? Default risk. Rauner pledged "The taxpayers of Illinois are not going to bail out the city of Chicago, that ain't happenin. But there are things we can do to help them restructure and get their government and their schools turned around, and I'd like to help them.". Illinois taxpayers should commend Rauner for that stance. Few Institutional Buyers Here's a pair of telling comment from the article about who may be taking the risk: "The 2035 is a discount structure, that typically signifies to me that you got some alternative buyers looking for some pop on the run, so they will try to trade on the headline news," said a Midwestern trader. "The structuring had a fairly deep discount. Only $10 million in the 2035, a little telling on the premium structure, which tells me you only have a few institutional buyers." "The question that is on everyone's mind is did the Kroll rating do anything? Overall, it has wide spreads but you can really tell by the dollar amount who the buyers are," the Midwestern trader said. Is this similar to the institutional shun and dump of GM bonds ahead of GM's bankruptcy? Recall that high-yield GM bonds were dumped on unsophisticated mom and pop investors ahead of that debacle. No Miracles Coming I repeat what I said yesterday in Yield on Chicago School Bond Offering Hits 5.63%; Debate Over Risk; Miracles Not Coming; Bankruptcy the Sensible Option. How is a state that has a $9 billion budget deficit hole going to bail out a single school district that is $1.1 billion in the hole? The obvious answer is that it won't and can't. There are no miracles to be had. The Chicago Public School system is bankrupt. All it will take to trigger bankruptcy is for the legislature to allow just that. That said, the law does mandate that parties in a chapter 9 bankruptcy dispute attempt to negotiate a settlement. Realistically speaking however, history shows that unions will not concede benefits as they believe them to be sacrosanct, even though court decisions prove otherwise. Detroit made a huge mistake time-wise attempting to forestall the inevitable. Rauner needs to give an out of court settlement a chance, but for the sake of Chicago and Illinois, that chance should be of limited duration. Bankruptcy the Only Sensible Option Since downstate voters will not want to bail out Chicago, we may easily be approaching the point the Illinois legislature realizes it has no choice other than to allow municipalities the option of declaring bankruptcy. This won't come easily for the legislature, but it's the right thing to do. Upstate vs. downstate politics may be enough to tip the tide. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot |
| ECB Squeezes Greece on Collateral; Humorous Lies of the Day; Capital Controls Likely Soon Posted: 22 Apr 2015 12:10 AM PDT Funding as Long as Banks Stay Solvent The amusing headline of the day comes from ECB Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure who told Greek newspaper Kathimerini on Wednesday in an interview ECB to Fund Greek Banks as Long as They Stay Solvent. The European Central Bank will continue to provide liquidity to Greece's banks as long as they remain solvent and have sufficient collateral, ECB Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure told Greek newspaper Kathimerini on Wednesday in an interview.Coeure failed to say that Greek banks are "solvent" (using the word loosely) only as long as they get funding. Humorous Lies of the Day
Does Coeure really believe he is fooling anyone with such nonsense? Greek Leaders Under fire for Ordering Councils to Hand Over Cash Greek mayors are upset (and no one can possibly blame them) for the government ordering cities to turn all their cash over to the central government. The Financial Times reports Greek Leaders Under fire for Ordering Councils to Hand Over Cash. Greece's anti-austerity government faced the first serious rebellion over its handling of a deepening fiscal crisis after it caved in to international pressure and ordered local authorities to hand over their spare cash.ECB Squeezes Greece on Collateral Rounding out our trifecta of Greek news, ECB Squeezes Greece on Collateral. As Greece scrambles to secure a financing deal with Europe before running out of cash, the European Central Bank is tightening the vise on the country's ailing banks by curtailing access to desperately needed emergency loans.Capital Controls Likely Soon What's that collateral that the ECB already has on deposit from the Bank of Greece really worth? Regardless of the answer, we now have an official denial on capital controls. If you have money deposited in Greek banks, get it out now. Capital controls seem all but certain, perhaps within days. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot |
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Damn Cool Pics
Damn Cool Pics |
| Man Gets Gored By A Bull On A Rampage Posted: 22 Apr 2015 05:07 PM PDT This man became a target during a bull run in Spain. His run ended with him getting gored right in the butt by an angry bull.      |
| Female Stars That Grew Up To Be Drop Dead Gorgeous Posted: 22 Apr 2015 04:44 PM PDT Like a fine wine, these women only get better with age. Emma Watson  Anna Chlumsky                   |
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Moz's 2014 Annual Report - Moz Blog
| Posted on: Wednesday 22 April 2015 — 02:14 Posted by SarahBird Moz has a tradition of sharing its financials (check out 2012 and 2013 for funzies). It's an important part of TAGFEE. Why do we do it? Moz gets it's strength from the community of marketers and entrepreneurs that support it. We celebrated 10 years of our community last October. In some ways, the purpose of this report is to give you an inside look into our company. It's one of many lenses that tell the story of Moz. Yep. I know. It's April. I'm not proud. Better late than never, right? I had a very long and extensive version of this post planned, something closer to last year's extravaganza. I finally had to admit to myself that I was letting the perfect become the enemy of the good (or at least the done). There was no way I could capture an entire year's worth of ups and downs—along with supporting data—in a single blog post. Without further ado, here's the meat-and-potatoes 2014 Year In Review (and here's an infographic with more statistics for your viewing pleasure!): Moz ended 2014 with $31.3 million in revenue. About $30 million was recurring revenue (mostly from subscriptions to Moz Pro and the API). Here's a breakdown of all our major revenue sources: Compared to previous years, 2014 was a much slower growth year. We knew very early that it was going to be a tough year because we started Q1 with negative growth. We worked very hard and successfully shifted the momentum back to increasingly positive quarterly growth rates. I'm proud of what we've accomplished so far. We still have a long ways to go to meet our potential, but we're on the path. In subscription businesses, If you start the year with negative or even slow growth it is very hard to have meaningful annual growth. All things being equal, you're better off having a bad quarter in Q4 than Q1. If you get a new customer in Q1, you usually earn revenue from that customer all year. If you get a new customer in Q4, it will barely make a dent in that year, although it should set you up nicely for the following year. We exited 2014 on a good flight path, which bodes well for 2015. We slammed right into some nasty billing system challenges in Q1 2015, but still managed to grow revenue 6.5%. Mad props to the team for shifting momentum last year and for digging into the billing system challenges we're experiencing now. We were very successful in becoming more efficient and managing costs in 2014. Our Cost of Revenue (COR), the cost of producing what we sell, fell by 30% to $8.2 million. These savings drove our gross profit margin up from 63% in 2013 to 74%. Our operating profit increased by 30%. Here's a breakdown of our major expenses (both operating expenses and COR): Total operating expenses (which don't include COR) clocked in at about $29.9 million this year. The efficiency gains positively impacted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) by pushing it up 50% year over year. In 2013, EBITDA was -$4.5 million. We improved it to -$2.1 million in 2014. We're a VC-backed startup, so this was a planned loss. One of the most dramatic indicators of our improved efficiency in 2014 is the substantial decline in our consumption of cash. In 2014, we spent $1.5 million in cash. This was a planned burn, and is actually very impressive for a startup. In fact, we are intentionally increasing our burn, so we don't expect EBITDA and cash burn to look as good in 2015! Hopefully, though, you will see that revenue growth rate increase. Let's check in on some other Moz KPIs: At the end of 2014, we reported a little over 27,000 Pro users. When billing system issues hit in Q1 2015, we discovered some weird under- and over-reporting, so the number of subscribers was adjusted down by about ~450 after we scrubbed a bunch of inactive accounts out of the database. We expect accounts to stabilize and be more reliable now that we've fixed those issues. We launched Moz Local about a year ago. I'm amazed and thrilled that we were able to end the year managing 27,000 locations for a range of customers. We just recently took our baby steps into the UK, and we've got a bunch of great additional features planned. What an incredible launch year! We published over 300 posts combined on the Moz Blog and YouMoz. Nearly 20,000 people left comments. Well done, team! We continue to see good growth across many of our off-site communities, too: Our content and social efforts are paying off with a 26% year-over-year increase in organic traffic. The team grew to 149 people last year. We're at ~37% women, which is nowhere near where I want it to be. We have a long way to go before the team reflects the diversity of the communities around us. Our paid, paid vacation perk is very popular with Mozzers, and why wouldn't it be? Everyone gets $3,000/year to use toward their vacations. In 2014, we spent over $420,000 to help our Mozzers take a break and get connected with matters most. Last, but certainly not least, Mozzers continue to be generous (the 'G' in TAGFEE) and donate to the charities of their choice. In 2014, Mozzers donated $48k, and Moz added another $72k to increase the impact of their gifts. Combining those two figures, we donated $120k to causes our team members are passionate about. That's an average of $805 per employee! Mozzers are optimists with initiative. I think that's why they are so generous with their time and money to folks in need. They believe the world can be a better place if we act to change it. That's a wrap on 2014! A year with many ups and downs. Fortunately, Mozzers don't quit when things get hard. They embrace TAGFEE and lean into the challenge. Revenue is growing again. We're still operating very efficiently, and TAGFEE is strong. We're heads-down executing on some big projects that customers have been clamoring for. Thank you for sticking with us, and for inspiring us to make marketing better every day. Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read! |
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Seth's Blog : Demand higher standards
Demand higher standards
On a long flight a little while ago, I saw two couples watch movies while they let their six kids run around like maniacs from take off to touchdown. A seven-year old actually punched me. (I didn't return the punch).
A few days later, I saw the now-typical sight of kids in a decent restaurant eating french fries and chicken fingers while watching a movie on a tablet.
And it's entirely possible you have a boss that lets you do mediocre work, precisely whenever you feel like it.
I wish those kids had said, "Mom, Dad, raise your standards for me. I deserve it."
And the sooner you find a boss who pushes you right to the edge of your ability to be excellent, the better.
Even if the boss is you.
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- The freelancer course is here
- The difference between mass and banality
- Seen, heard, gotten, changed
- "What have you got?"
- What if you stopped?
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marți, 21 aprilie 2015
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Caught on Video: Police Smash Woman's Phone as She Tapes Crime Scene; How to Stop "I am Above the Law" Mentality
- Yield on Chicago School Bond Offering Hits 5.63%; Debate Over Risk; Miracles Not Coming; Bankruptcy the Sensible Option
- Euribor Goes Negative, Banks Paid to Borrow from Each Other; ECB Risks Freezing Repo Market
| Posted: 21 Apr 2015 07:42 PM PDT In yet another cops are above the law incident Watch U.S. Marshal Crush Camera. Nosy neighbors caught a video of a law enforcement officer in California snatching a bystander's phone and smashing it after U.S. Marshals realized she was recording their bust of a biker gang meeting. The 53-second video, taken from across the street, shows a gun-toting marshal grabbing the woman's phone out of her hand, throwing it to the ground, and finally kicking it. According to a spokesperson for the marshals, the video "is being reviewed." How to Stop "I am Above the Law" Mentality The only way to stop this kind of "above the law" mentality is to immediately suspend, without pay, any police officer guilty of such behavior. A second offense is grounds for dismissal. As an added incentive, fired officers should lose 100% of all accrued benefits. And in this case, repayment for the phone should come directly out of the suspended officer's paycheck (at say a 500% of damages rate). I am open to negotiation on the terms mentioned above. But the terms must be severe enough to cause an immediate attitude change. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot |
| Posted: 21 Apr 2015 11:25 AM PDT Today a $295.7 million bond offering by the beleaguered Chicago Board of Education hit the market. The Yield Hit 5.63%. That is 285 basis points higher than Municipal Market Data's benchmark triple-A scale. Debate Over Risk Municipal Market Analytics (MMA) says Despite it All, Chicago Schools' Default Risk is Low. Peel away the layers of negative headlines and patient investors will find low default risks and underlying credit strength in this week's $300 million Chicago Board of Education deal, according to Municipal Market Analytics.Debate Over Risk I strongly disagree the MMA's assessment. While it's true that municipal bankruptcies are rare, the odds of this deal working out well are poor. The only saving grace at the moment is that Illinois does not allow municipal bankruptcies. And Rauner pledged "The taxpayers of Illinois are not going to bail out the city of Chicago, that ain't happenin. But there are things we can do to help them restructure and get their government and their schools turned around, and I'd like to help them.". Simple Facts
No State Rescue Where is the school district going to get $1.1 billion? Where is it going to get a $700 million pension payment? The state? Think again. Illinois Budget Deficit is $9 billion Don't expect the state of Illinois to come to the rescue! Crain's Chicago Business says Illinois' Budget Deficit is Twice as Bad as You Think. Illinois' fiscal woes are significantly deeper and more serious than generally realized, with the state facing a $9 billion operating deficit in the fiscal year that begins July 1.No Miracles Coming How is a state that is $9 billion in the hole going to bail out a single school district that is $1.1 billion in the hole? The obvious answer is that it won't and can't. There are no miracles to be had. The Chicago Public School system is bankrupt. All it will take to trigger bankruptcy is for the legislature to allow just that. Bankruptcy the Only Sensible Option Since downstate voters will not want to bail out Chicago, we may easily be approaching the point the Illinois legislature realizes it has no choice other than to allow municipalities the option of declaring bankruptcy. This won't come easily for the legislature, but it's the right thing to do. Upstate vs. downstate politics may be enough to tip the tide. Right Idea Rauner has the right idea on taxes, on bankruptcy, and on a bailout of Chicago. Not a penny of taxpayer money should go to fund a lost cause. I find it hard to believe that Emanuel himself does not know the school system is truly bankrupt. When you are bankrupt, the only sensible thing to do is admit it. That said, the law does mandate that parties in a chapter 9 bankruptcy dispute attempt to negotiate a settlement. Bankruptcy law must be adhered to. Realistically speaking however, history shows that unions will not concede benefits as they believe them to be sacrosanct, even though court decisions prove otherwise. Detroit made a huge mistake time-wise attempting to forestall the inevitable. Rauner needs to give an out of court settlement a chance, but for the sake of Chicago and Illinois, that chance should be of limited duration. For more details on the miserable state of affairs of the Chicago Public School System, please see Credit Swap Event Triggers for Chicago Schools: Out of Cash in 30 Days, Cooking the Books to Oblivion. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot |
| Euribor Goes Negative, Banks Paid to Borrow from Each Other; ECB Risks Freezing Repo Market Posted: 21 Apr 2015 09:04 AM PDT Banks Paid to Borrow From Each Other Via massive QE purchases of bonds, ECB president Mario Draghi is flooding Europe with cash that European banks don't want and cannot use. One curious result of unwarranted QE is a negative interbank lending rate: Banks Paid to Borrow as Three-Month Euribor Drops Below Zero. Banks in the euro area can now get paid to look after each others' cash for three months as the European Central Bank's bond-buying program floods the region's money markets with excess liquidity.ECB Risks Freezing Repo Market An ICMA official says ECB Risks Freezing Repo Market. The European Central Bank (ECB) risks secured-lending or repo markets grinding to a halt unless it works more closely with national central banks (NCBs) to improve liquidity, a senior trade association official told Reuters.Come Hell or Frozen Water, Program Will Continue De Vidts believes excess liquidity might cause a freeze. On April 15, Mario Draghi made the claim "Stimulus is Working". "European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank's stimulus efforts are beginning to take hold in the European economy and batted away concerns in financial markets that the bank may have to end its more than €1 trillion ($1.1 trillion) asset purchase program early." If it's working, why wouldn't Draghi welcome ending the program early? Of course if it blows up in his face with unintended consequences, he may be forced to end it early. Either way, Draghi has put himself into a box that says he will continue his plan come hell or frozen water. The market may have something to say about that, perhaps sooner rather than later. Stunning Arrogance The arrogance of central bankers in spite of the fact they recently brought the world to the edge of financial collapse is stunning. Now they have created equity and junk bond bubbles of massive proportion and don't even see it. The program must continue. Why? Because we said so. All in the foolish belief they need to stop consumer prices from falling. Even the BIS recognizes the foolishness of the idea that falling consumer prices are damaging. For discussion, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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