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luni, 8 iunie 2015
This week's top Pins
Seth's Blog : High resolution is not the same as accurate
High resolution is not the same as accurate
Should you visit a college before you decide to go there?
Well, a one-hour personal visit is certainly visceral and emotional and it feels real. But it's also based on the weather, on the route you took to school, on the few people you met or the one class you visited.
None of this is correlated to what the four-year experience is actually like, or what the degree or experience is worth over the lifetime of a career.
By analogy, everything from how angry that last customer was on the phone to precisely how many degrees it is outside right now are not nearly as accurate indicators as we make them out to be.
You don't need an electron microscope to figure out if a ball is round. (In fact, it will almost certainly tell you something less than useful.)*
Too much resolution stops giving you information and becomes merely noise, which actually gets in the way of the accuracy you seek.
*[If you were able to shrink the Earth to the size of a billiard ball, it would be the roundest sphere ever created. Hard to believe this if you live near the edge of the Grand Canyon.]
More Recent Articles
- Holding the umbrella
- The Debate Channel
- Blah, blah, blah
- The fruitless search for extraordinary people willing to take ordinary jobs
- The critic as an amateur hack
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duminică, 7 iunie 2015
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
| New Housing Crisis in the Making? If So, What's the Solution? Posted: 07 Jun 2015 12:59 PM PDT Home ownership rates are sinking and demographics are part of the reason. But does that constitute a new housing crisis?  The Wall Street Journal writer Nick Timiraos makes the case in New Housing Crisis Looms as Fewer Renters Can Afford to Own. Last decade's housing crisis has given way to a new one in which many families lack the incomes or savings needed to buy homes, creating a surge of renters and a shortage of affordable housing.Breaks for Apartment Builders Given that Terwilliger spent two decades as one of the nation's largest apartment developers the answer should be easy to figure out. He wants to end tax breaks for home ownership to subsidize new home owners and "free up funds for the rental side". His complaint: 75% of the housing tax breaks go to the top 20% of individuals. That is hardly shocking given the top 20% buy the most expensive homes and therefore pay the most in interest. Timiraos, buys all Terwilliger's nonsense hook line and sinker, finishing the WSJ article with "Politically, none of this will be easy . Some will say it's a zero-sum game—helping renters at the expense of owners. Not so, says Mr. Terwilliger. If renters can't ever become homeowners, who will buy those homes when today's homeowners need to sell?" Housing Crisis Past and Present The 2015 housing crisis was caused the same way as the one in 2007: Interference by the Fed, by Congress, by local officials wanting to create affordable housing. Terwilliger wants a combination of affordable housing and affordable renting. Lovely. Driving up home ownership rates is guaranteed to do one thing: drive up prices. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and hundreds of other government programs culminating with president Bush's "Ownership Society" all contributed to make housing unaffordable. The government has no business promoting one form of living over another. Self-Correcting Problem Terwilliger ends with the question "If renters can't ever become homeowners, who will buy those homes when today's homeowners need to sell?" The answer should be obvious: Prices will fall until there is a pool of buyers! In the wake of the great financial crisis, home prices actually fell to the point of being affordable. Few seemed happy with the result. The Fed wanted to prevent deflation and in the greatest financial experiment in history unleashed round after round of QE. Asset prices recovered, but wages didn't. As a result, homes are once again unaffordable. Does Terwilliger want affordable housing or not? If government and the Fed got out of the way, there would be no problem. Instead, Terwilliger wants the government to "do something". I suggest the government and the Fed have done far too much already. Solution is Undoing Instead of promoting something, a process that has failed every time, how about undoing everything that contributed to the mess. My proposal
That's the real solution to the problem, not more self-serving affordable housing nonsense from people with a vested interest in promoting something for their own benefit. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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Seth's Blog : Holding the umbrella
Holding the umbrella
Harry Truman talked about where the buck stops.
For every project, for every organization that lasts, someone is holding the umbrella.
She's the one on the hook if things don't go well. She's the one who doesn't walk away from a problem, even if the office is closed. Most important, the person holding the umbrella decides what to do next.
It's fun to work on a successful project, and thrilling to invent, create and connect. But the real work comes when it's your turn to hold the umbrella.
It's entirely possible that you've let other people seduce you into believing that it's not yet your turn. Ignore them. There are lots of umbrellas just waiting for someone to hold them.
More Recent Articles
- The Debate Channel
- Blah, blah, blah
- The fruitless search for extraordinary people willing to take ordinary jobs
- The critic as an amateur hack
- Word of mouse
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sâmbătă, 6 iunie 2015
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
| Request Denied: Juncker Spurns Tsipras Request for Meeting; Exterminated from Within Posted: 06 Jun 2015 11:57 AM PDT Recap of Recent Greek Events On Friday, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras cancelled a with eurozone officials in Brussels. He returned to Athens to address outrage from within his own party. Tsipras then blasted the latest deal offer made by Jean-Claude Juncker in a rant to the Greek parliament. Tsipras said he was "unpleasantly surprised" by the proposal put forward by the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission during his visit to Brussels for talks with commission head Jean-Claude Juncker. "I would like to believe that this proposal was an unfortunate moment for Europe, or at least a bad negotiating trick, and will very soon be withdrawn by the same people who thought it up," he said. After blasting Juncker's deal, Tsipras picked up the phone and made a call to Russian President Vladimir Putin. They agree to meet in two weeks at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Greece also missed a debt payment to the IMF on Friday. That did not constitute default because IMF rules allow multiple payments within a month to be bundled on the last due date. That trick was last used by Zambia in the 1980s. Exterminated from Within Greek energy minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis, ruled out a deal stating "I do not think that Syriza will accept for the country and its people to be exterminated inside the eurozone. A third consecutive austerity loan programme will be the most destructive option possible for Greece." For a more detailed recap of Friday's events, please see Tsipras Talks With Putin; Energy Minister Rules Out Deal; Wordsmithing Extraordinaire; 16 Tons. Juncker Spurns Tsipras Meeting Given all the above, it's no wonder that today Juncker Spurns Tsipras Meeting. Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, asked to meet Jean-Claude Juncker on Saturday but was spurned by the European Commission president rankled by the Greek leader's denunciation of his efforts to broker a bailout deal.Best Friend and Advocate? The European Commission, and particularly Mr Juncker, have long seen themselves as Greece's strongest advocate at the creditors' table, frequently clashing with the more hardline views of the IMF and the German finance ministry.With "advocates" like Juncker, who needs enemies? Curiously, Greek officials deny Tsipras asked for a meeting today with Juncker, stating Greece's differences now lie with Berlin, not Mr Juncker in Brussels. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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Seth's Blog : The Debate Channel
The Debate Channel
Watching the US candidates hustle and squirm about the upcoming debates shows a fascinating generational media shift, one that impacts all of us.
In this case, the system has announced that only the top 10 candidates in the polls get invited, which means that more than a handful won't make the cut, which of course feels like doom.
But TV isn't in charge any more. We each own our own TV broadcasting network—anyone who wants to put on a show, can.
If I were crazy enough to be running, I'd organize my own debate, challenging one or two of my competitors to an hour-long conversation, and then post it online. Even better, I'd challenge one of the candidates from the other party and have a substantive conversation. Bernie Sanders debating [pick your candidate]. It elevates both sides because each person had the guts to address the issues, to go head to head, to speak up and make a case.
The Debate Channel can't be far behind. No grandstanding, with chess clocks provided for fairness, no wasted time on moderators, merely conversations, some of which can't help but go viral and get ratings that would, in aggregate, compete with the TV variety.
Can you imagine a musician today who only performed on TV when asked to by Jimmy Fallon? No music videos, no online work...
And the rest of us? We can have our own debates. Debate patent trolling or which kind of activity tracker is best. Two brand managers or engineers arguing for their particular cloud solution. Or debate sous vide vs. grilling, your freelance skills vs. someone else's...
The game theory is clear: In a competition among many players, when two or three care enough and are brave enough to debate, everyone else becomes 'everyone else'.
The magic is the open nature of a billion-channel universe. The organization with an FCC license is no longer in charge, debates aren't something that happen to you, they're something you can choose to do.
Pick yourself.
More Recent Articles
- Blah, blah, blah
- The fruitless search for extraordinary people willing to take ordinary jobs
- The critic as an amateur hack
- Word of mouse
- Marketing to the organization
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