joi, 18 iunie 2015

Damn Cool Pics

Taking a Group Photo Is Not an Exact Science

Posted: 18 Jun 2015 07:12 PM PDT

The Colossus Update: Waking The Giant - Moz Blog

The Colossus Update: Waking The Giant

Posted by Dr-Pete

Yesterday morning, we woke up to a historically massive temperature spike on MozCast, after an unusually quiet weekend. The 10-day weather looked like this:

That's 101.8°F, one of the hottest verified days on record, second only to a series of unconfirmed spikes in June of 2013. For reference, the first Penguin update clocked in at 93.1°.

Unfortunately, trying to determine how the algorithm changed from looking at individual keywords (even thousands of them) is more art than science, and even the art is more often Ms. Johnson's Kindergarten class than Picasso. Sometimes, though, we catch a break and spot something.

The First Clue: HTTPS

When you watch enough SERPs, you start to realize that change is normal. So, the trick is to find the queries that changed a lot on the day in question but are historically quiet. Looking at a few of these, I noticed some apparent shake-ups in HTTP vs. HTTPS (secure) URLs. So, the question becomes: are these anecdotes, or do they represent a pattern?

I dove in and looked at how many URLs for our 10,000 page-1 SERPs were HTTPS over the past few days, and I saw this:

On the morning of June 17, HTTPS URLs on page 1 jumped from 16.9% to 18.4% (a 9.9% day-over-day increase), after trending up for a few days. This represents the total real-estate occupied by HTTPS URLs, but how did rankings fare? Here are the average rankings across all HTTPS results:

HTTPS URLs also seem to have gotten a rankings boost – dropping (with "dropping" being a positive thing) from an average of 2.96 to 2.79 in the space of 24 hours.

Seems pretty convincing, right? Here's the problem: rankings don't just change because Google changes the algorithm. We are, collectively, changing the web every minute of the day. Often, those changes are just background noise (and there's a lot of noise), but sometimes a giant awakens.

The Second Clue: Wikipedia

Anecdotally, I noticed that some Wikipedia URLs seemed to be flipping from HTTP to HTTPS. I ran a quick count, and this wasn't just a fluke. It turns out that Wikipedia started switching their entire site to HTTPS around June 12 (hat tip to Jan Dunlop). This change is expected to take a couple of weeks.

It's just one site, though, right? Well, historically, this one site is the #1 largest land-holder across the SERP real-estate we track, with over 5% of the total page-1 URLs in our tracking data (5.19% as of June 17). Wikipedia is a giant, and its movements can shake the entire web.

So, how do we tease this apart? If Wikipedia's URLs had simply flipped from HTTP to HTTPS, we should see a pretty standard pattern of shake-up. Those URLs would look to have changed, but the SERPS around them would be quiet. So, I ran an analysis of what the temperature would've been if we ignored the protocol (treating HTTP/HTTPS as the same). While slightly lower, that temperature was still a scorching 96.6°F.

Is it possible that Wikipedia moving to HTTPS also made the site eligible for a rankings boost from previous algorithm updates, thus disrupting page 1 without any code changes on Google's end? Yes, it is possible – even a relatively small rankings boost for Wikipedia from the original HTTPS algorithm update could have a broad impact.

The Third Clue: Google?

So far, Google has only said that this was not a Panda update. There have been rumors that the HTTPS update would get a boost, as recently as SMX Advanced earlier this month, but no timeline was given for when that might happen.

Is it possible that Wikipedia's publicly announced switch finally gave Google the confidence to boost the HTTPS signal? Again, yes, it's possible, but we can only speculate at this point.

My gut feeling is that this was more than just a waking giant, even as powerful of a SERP force as Wikipedia has become. We should know more as their HTTPS roll-out continues and their index settles down. In the meantime, I think we can expect Google to become increasingly serious about HTTPS, even if what we saw yesterday turns out not to have been an algorithm update.

In the meantime, I'm going to melodramatically name this "The Colossus Update" because, well, it sounds cool. If this indeed was an algorithm update, I'm sure Google would prefer something sensible, like "HTTPS Update 2" or "Securageddon" (sorry, Gary).

Update from Google: Gary Illyes said that he's not aware of an HTTPS update (via Twitter):

No comment on other updates, or the potential impact of a Wikipedia change. I feel strongly that there is an HTTPS connection in the data, but as I said – that doesn't necessarily mean the algorithm changed.

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New Features in OSE's Spam Score & the Mozscape API

Posted by randfish

This week, we launched a feature inside Open Site Explorer that I'm very excited about - the Spam Score Histogram, found by clicking on the "spam analysis" tab:

The histogram is particularly useful for visualizing the distribution of potentially spammy links that show up in a site's link profile. Above, for example, we're looking at Moz.com, with a strong distribution of sites that have 0-5 spam flags. According to our research, that means the vast majority of those sites are unlikely to be penalized or banned by Google.

For more detail on Moz's Spam Score, check out the original blog post and my Whiteboard Friday.

The new histogram view lets us do nice comparisons like these:

Houzz.com has a very large list of sketchy-looking sites linking to them (many seem to be very thin content sites from China, curiously).

Competitor (well, sort-of-competitor), Porch.com, has a much smaller link profile with a very different distribution. Their link profile looks even healthier than Moz's to me!

But, the new spam score histogram isn't the only new feature. We've also got a new power available to API users - the ability to query data from the previous index. If you want to know what a previous Domain Authority score looked like, or how many links we reported to a page in our last index, you can now do so using the Moz API. If you want to get started, check out the documentation here, or get in touch directly with Chris Airola (email chris.airola at moz.com), who manages paid API accounts and loves to help.

Many thanks to the Research Tools and Big Data teams at Moz, who've worked to make this possible. I'm happy to answer questions and will try to be in the comments here frequently. I wish you good spam exploring my friends!

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Seth's Blog : How, why and the other thing

How, why and the other thing

Almost all the inputs, advice and resources available are about how. How to write better copy, how to code, how to manage, how to get people to do what you want, how to lose weight, how to get ahead...

Far more scarce is help in understanding why. Why bother? Why move forward? Why care?

And rarest of all, yet ironically the most important, is help and insight about getting to the core of the fear that is holding us back.

This is the cause of the unfinished novel, of the self-sabotaging aggressive marketing campaign and the speech that goes on too long. It's the at the heart of too much, too little, and too boring as well.

You might need confidence in your 'how' to deal with your fear. You might have found your 'why' overwhelmed by your fear. But all the how and all the why isn't going to help much if we can't acknowledge that essential driver is, "where is the fear?"

Are we so afraid of it that we can't even discuss it?

• Email to a friend •

miercuri, 17 iunie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Fed Lift-Off or Crawl-Off?

Posted: 17 Jun 2015 12:37 PM PDT

Nothing much changed as a result of today's FOMC meeting. If you are having trouble falling to sleep, I have the cure. Read today's FOMC Statement as it's sure to do the trick.

The Financial Times reports Fed Sets Course for 2015 Rate Rise.

The Federal Reserve set course for an increase in short-term interest rates as soon as September, as it expressed cautious optimism about the US economy following a sharp slowdown that struck in the first quarter.

However interest-rate projections from the Federal Open Market Committee signalled that the pace of tightening will be gradual, as officials seek to quell fears of a spike in borrowing costs.

A chart of interest-rate predictions from Fed officials pointed to two increases later this year, but the committee appeared to be heavily divided over whether that many rises would be merited, with an increased number of policy makers advocating only one move.

The Fed is treading a precarious line as it attempts to signal a rate rise while damping the risk of a market tantrum that could derail global growth. Top officials have repeatedly insisted policy will only be tightened modestly, and today's forecasts from officials put the longer-run rate at just 3.75 per cent.

Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chairman, said this month that "lift-off" was the wrong word for rate rises when they came, insisting that the central bank would instead be "crawling" as it pursued incremental increases.

Even so, some analysts argue that any move this year would be premature and choke off the recovery. Among them is the International Monetary Fund, which recently made a prominent call for the Fed to wait until 2016. Some officials within the Federal Open Market Committee have also been voicing caution.

Lael Brainard, a Fed governor, this month said the recent economic weakness may not be transitory and that more optimistic growth predictions were underestimating the negative investment implications from the oil price drop and the hit to growth from the higher dollar.

Gradual Pace

The Wall Street Journal reports Fed Signals Rate Hikes at a Gradual Pace

The Federal Reserve signaled it was moving toward interest-rate increases later this year now that signs of a slowdown in economic activity are waning, but the path of rate increases could be less steep than officials anticipated.

The last time the Fed made such projections, its consensus appeared to be building around two rate increases this year. Fed officials also nudged down their rate projections for 2016 and 2017 by a quarter percentage point. The shifts suggested officials have become less certain about the longer-run vigor of the U.S. economy and its capacity to withstand much higher rates. Expansion of output is on track again in 2015 to undershoot the Fed's expectations.

In a press conference following the meeting, Chairwoman Janet Yellen said the importance of the initial rate increase "should not be overstated." She emphasized that even after the first move higher, the Fed's policy will still be broadly accommodative.

Ms. Yellen added the committee will decide when to first raise the federal funds rate "on a meeting-by-meeting basis" depending on its assessment of "incoming economic information and its implications for the economic outlook."

Crawl-Off Analysis

The Fed can and will do whatever it wants, within reason.

If the economy is muddling along with weak growth, and the Fed still wants to hike anyway, it can make up any statements about the economic data that it needs to justify its decision.

If the economy relapses at any point between now and the September 16-17 meeting, hikes will likely be put off.

Today's meeting and follow-up Yellen yap conference did not clarify anything.

I suggest December seems more likely than September unless data is strong between now and the September meeting. I am still not convinced there is a hike this year at all, but it does seem more likely than a month ago.

Dollar Not Impressed

The US dollar was clearly unimpressed with today's announcement. The US dollar index opened at 95.27, rose to 95.59, but now sits 94.46, down .80 on the day. Had the Fed signaled strong action, the dollar would have soared.

Key to Decision

The key to the September rate hike decision will likely be the next set of reports on retail spending, housing, and wages.

Fed Statements at the July 28-29 meeting will set the tone for September.

Statements at the October 27-28 meeting will set the tone for December.

Here is the FOMC Schedule for 2015.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Greece Declares Troika Debt Illegitimate, Odious, Illegal; German Official Calls Greek Leaders "Clowns"; Expulsion From EU?

Posted: 17 Jun 2015 10:39 AM PDT

The war of words between Greece and its creditors took a leap in intensity today, with Greece declaring its debt illegal and odious, and Germany calling the Greek leaders "clowns".

Debt Illegitimate, Odiousness, Illegal, Unsustainable

Please consider a few snips from a translation of the Executive Report of the Hellenic Parliament's Debt Truth Committee.

Several legal arguments permit a State to unilaterally repudiate its illegal, odious, and illegitimate debt. In the Greek case, such a unilateral act may be based on the following arguments: the bad faith of the creditors that pushed Greece to violate national law and international obligations related to human rights; preeminence of human rights over agreements such as those signed by previous governments with creditors or the Troika; coercion; unfair terms flagrantly violating Greek sovereignty and violating the Constitution; and finally, the right recognized in international law for a State to take countermeasures against illegal acts by its creditors, which purposefully damage its fiscal sovereignty, oblige it to assume odious, illegal and illegitimate debt, violate economic self-determination and fundamental human rights.

People's dignity is worth more than illegal, illegitimate, odious and unsustainable debt

Having concluded a preliminary investigation, the Committee considers that Greece has been and still is the victim of an attack premeditated and organized by the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the European Commission. This violent, illegal, and immoral mission aimed exclusively at shifting private debt onto the public sector.

CSU Secretary General Calls Greek Leaders "Clowns"

Let's also take a peek at the Reuters story Greece's Future in EU in Doubt if Talks Fail, Central Bank Warns.

A warning by Greece's central bank that the country risked being driven from the euro zone and, ultimately, the European Union failed to break a deadlock with creditors before a potentially decisive meeting of European finance ministers.

"People are getting anxious on both sides. Athens expects Brussels to move. And Brussels expects Athens to move. And it's stuck," said a senior EU diplomat, who declined to be named. "It's very dangerous, and we may have an accident."

Making clear the huge stakes at play, the Greek central bank said reaching an accord was "an historical imperative" that the country could not ignore.

"Failure to reach an agreement would ... mark the beginning of a painful course that would lead initially to a Greek default and ultimately to the country's exit from the euro area and, most likely, from the European Union," the Bank of Greece said in a monetary policy report.

Highlighting the fraying tempers, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Bavarian allies accused Athens on Wednesday of not grasping the seriousness of the situation, with CSU Secretary-General Andreas Scheuer calling Greek rulers "clowns".

Failure to Grasp Seriousness of the Situation

It is Germany, not Greece that fails to grasp the seriousness of the situation. In fact, Germany fails to grasp the fundamental picture I outlined at least four years ago.

What cannot be paid back, won't.
European taxpayers, will foot the bill one way or another, either by debt forgiveness or default.
German taxpayers will take the biggest hit because Germany has the largest percentage responsibility of any country in the eurozone.

All along, I was pretty sure default was inevitable because at no stage of the way did Eurozone leaders admit point number one.

Yesterday, I posted this approximate hit taxpayers will have to shoulder.

Mish Calc	Bilateral loans	Guarantees on the borrowings of EFSF to fund its loans	Implicit share of TARGET2 claims of the Eurosystem	Implicit share in the SMP holdings of bonds by the Eurosystem	Total
France	11.389	31.02	24.47	5.439	72.32
Germany	15.165	41.308	31.07	6.903	94.45
Italy	10.008	27.259	21.25	4.722	63.24
Spain	6.65	18.112	15.26	3.391	43.41
Total	52.9	141.8	118.0	27	339.7

I took the IESEG numbers and plugged in €118 billion as a total Target2 liability, split as shown.

I heard from Eric Dor, Directeur des Etudes Economiques, IESEG School of Management, Université Catholique de Lille, today. He thinks my Target2 number is too high. He suggests that it's more like €100 billion now. If so, mentally lower the balances slightly. I have an email in to him for clarification. The main point stands, however. Liabilities are high and rising.

Hollow Threats

There is no provision by which the eurozone can expel Greece. Nor is it possible for Greece to be forced out of the EU.

Foreign Policy answers the question Could Greece Get Kicked Out of the European Union? with a simple one word answer: "No". Here's the longer explanation:

EU bylaws provide no mechanism for expelling a member state. Indeed, the EU's laws in spirit are integrative and unifying, "conciliatory" rather than "punitive." Therefore, in letter, they provide no option for kicking a country out, no matter how much other member countries might want to. Even if Greece invaded France — and it would take as much for Brussels to contemplate expulsion — the European Commission, a body of ministers that initiates EU laws, would have to craft new legislation to do it.

Real Threats

In contrast Greece has "real threats".

Imposition of sanctions on another country requires unanimous consent by treaty. Greece can kill EU sanctions on Russia at a moment's notice.

And as I have pointed out, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras Meets Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday June 19.

Unless there is a deal favorable to Greece, the sanctions will end in January. Curiously, Moscow Times reports just today that EU Agrees to Extend Economic Sanctions on Russia Until January.

Did Greece really agree to that? Perhaps. Greece needs help from Russia and removing that bargaining chip now would reduce that leverage.

It appears to me that Greece has played its cards very well every step of the way.

Blame Game

Finally, when this finally blows, and it appears now is the time, expect Greece to blame Germany and Germany to blame Greece.

Assigning blame is much more complicated. The short answer is both are partially to blame but so is the fundamental nature of the eurozone itself.

More importantly fiat currency issues and the trade policies of Germany come into play as does political arrogance.

For the proper way to look at this pathetic mess, please consider From ZIRP to NIRP: Virtues of Germany vs. the Vices of Greece; What About "Speece"?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com