Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Shades of Roosevelt: Greece Safety Box Controls; Cash in Hand is King
- Overwhelming "No" Vote; The Way Forward; Congratulations!
- Knife-Edge Greek Referendum; Voting Booths Closed; Four Polls Show 'No' in Slight Lead; Schäuble Campaigned For 'No'
| Shades of Roosevelt: Greece Safety Box Controls; Cash in Hand is King Posted: 05 Jul 2015 06:38 PM PDT Back in January, I warned Greek citizens to take money out of Greek banks. I also warned not put it in safe deposit boxes. Both comments were dead-on accurate. Greece Safety Box Controls Please consider Greeks Cannot Tap Cash in Safe Deposit Boxes Under Capital Controls. Greeks cannot withdraw cash left in safe deposit boxes at Greek banks as long as capital restrictions remain in place, a deputy finance minister told Greek television on Sunday.Shades of Roosevelt Anyone recall Roosevelt's Executive Order 6102 outlawing gold? Executive Order 6102 is a United States presidential executive order signed on April 5, 1933, by President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the Hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States". The effect of the order, in conjunction with the statute under which it was issued, was to criminalize the possession of monetary gold by any individual, partnership, association or corporation.Cash in Hand is King Safe deposit boxes were not forcibly opened by Roosevelt, but who knows what is coming in Greece? Regardless, cash in hand is one thing, cash in a safe deposit box under capital controls is another. Gold Confiscation I receive questions quite frequently asking if gold or silver will be physically confiscated or outlawed as it was under Roosevelt. My short answer is no. And I am quite confident of that answer. Confiscation via a high tax rate on gold sales is more likely. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Overwhelming "No" Vote; The Way Forward; Congratulations! Posted: 05 Jul 2015 02:33 PM PDT Four polls said the Greek referendum was supposed to be "Knife Edge" close. Instead, Greece Heads for Decisive No Vote. With 85 per cent of votes counted, the No camp had won 61.5 per cent and was leading in every region of the country, a remarkable political exploit by Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras. But it is also likely to plunge Greece deeper into turmoil as it tries to prevent the collapse of a financial system that is rapidly running out of cash.Congratulations! The fact that all four poll showed 'no' winning was the clue as to which way this would break. Also, and as I commented earlier, Greeks had virtually nothing to gain by voting 'yes' after German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble commented that further negotiations would be on a "completely new basis and under difficult economic conditions" even if Greeks voted 'yes'. Congratulations are in order. Greece voted against further Troika servitude. The Way Forward The good news stops with the revolt against servitude. The way forward requires three items, all of which seem rather unlikely with Tsipras and the radical left in charge.
The only way Greece can quickly recover is if it takes steps along those lines. It's possible, but I highly doubt Greece will come close to doing what needs to be done. Should Greece fail, expect some to gloat "I told you so". They will be right for the wrong reason. Without a doubt Greece can recover much faster outside the shackles of Troika servitude. Unfortunately, there is little reason to believe they will take the necessary steps. At least they have a chance. They had no chance under Troika servitude. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 05 Jul 2015 11:01 AM PDT Greek Voting Closed Voting in the Greek referendum is now closed. Four independent polls, not exit polls, show the 'No' vote against Troika servitude in a slight lead. The polls are within the margin of error. That all polls show the same direction increases the likelihood that 'No' will win the day. However, there are so many undecided voters, this can go either way. Knife-Edge Referendum The Financial Times reports Polls Close in Knife-Edge Greek Referendum Greeks cast their ballots on Sunday in a controversial referendum called just one week ago that may determine the country's future as a member of the eurozone.Schäuble Effectively Campaigned For 'No' That Schäuble said any further negotiations would be on a "completely new basis and under difficult economic conditions" even if Greeks voted yes, essentially tells Greeks they may as well vote no. Schäuble has clearly had enough of Greece, even if chancellor Angela Merkel hasn't. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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