|
|
|
|
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
China's Exports Plunge 8% in July; Spotlight on US Trade Imbalance With China Posted: 09 Aug 2015 04:25 PM PDT In addition to bubble-busting events in real estate and the Chinese stock market, China now has to deal a plunge in exports. Following Saturday's report Chinese Exports Slump Over Eight Percent, analysts expect more China stimulus. Chinese exports tumbled 8.3 percent in July, their biggest drop in four months and far worse than expected, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will be forced to roll out more stimulus to support the world's second-largest economy.Cries for More Stimulus Excessive stimulus created property bubbles and an enormous stock market bubble. The average stock speculator has not even graduated from high school. The Washington Post reports: "Before peaking on June 12, China's stock market had risen by about 150 percent in a year, completely divorcing itself from increasingly worrying economic and corporate fundamentals. Frenzy gripped the nation; from high school students to farmers, ordinary Chinese citizens pooled ideas to take advantage of what looked like easy money. Thousands of people gathered in "street stock market saloons" in Shanghai from early afternoon until late in the evening to swap tips." Yet analysts want and expect more stimulus. The cry "do something" is overpowering even though huge problems were created precisely by "doing something", typically stimulus to meet absurd growth targets. Mish Action Item Proposal No one in their right mind believes Chinese growth is as high as China proclaims. And if China wants to do something that truly makes sense, I offer this simple proposal: abolish growth targets completely. Then, no analysts could make inane comments about needing more stimulus to meet targets, because there would be no inane targets to hit. Spotlight on US Trade Imbalance With China On May 5, Fortune reported U.S. trade deficit with China reaches all-time high. Just as the debate over free trade deals heats up in Washington, free trade advocates were hit with the ill-timed news that the trade deficit surged to $51.4 billion in March, up sharply from $35.9 billion in February.Current US Trade Numbers The above report was based on March trade, no doubt affected by the end of the West coast port strike. So let's hone in on the BEA Balance of Trade Report released August 5, for the month of June. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.8 billion in June, up $2.9 billion from $40.9 billion in May, revised. June exports were $188.6 billion, $0.1 billion less than May exports. June imports were $232.4 billion, $2.8 billion more than May imports.Comparison For July, China recorded a $43 billion trade surplus with the world. The latest numbers from the US are for June, but let's assume they will not change much. Of China's $43 billion surplus, $29 billion of it is from the US, the other $14 billion with the rest of the world. Analysts claim the "Yuan exchange rate has risen by 13.5 percent since June 2014". And on May 26, the IMF made this statement "Appreciation over the past year has brought the exchange rate to a level that is no longer undervalued." Yet, the US deficit with China persists, as do cries of Yuan manipulation in Congress. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 09 Aug 2015 09:24 AM PDT Pat Buchanan is the only high-profile Republican making any sense on the treaty with Iran. I discussed this on August 3 in Gulf Countries Now Back Iran Deal; Buchanan Explains Republicans' No-Win Situation. Obama vs. Bibi Buchanan continues to hit them out of the park. Here is his latest: Obama v. Bibi -- Fight to the Finish In his desperation to sink the Iran nuclear deal, Bibi Netanyahu is taking a hellish gamble.The Way to War Bibi is the way to war. So are the positions of any Republicans who wish to undo this deal. It is both hypocritical and unwise for Republican candidates to moan the US cannot trust Iran, then give Iran every reason to not trust the US. To help end this mess, the US should do exactly what Buchanan says, send Israel Ambassador Ron Dermer packing. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States |
That's the first and best defense every toddler learns. If you don't do anything, you don't get in trouble.
Somewhere along the way, it flips. "I didn't do anything when I had the chance," becomes a regret. The lost opportunity, the hand not extended, the skill not learned...
Wouldn't it be great if we knew what our regrets were when we still had time to do something about them?
[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]
Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 08 Aug 2015 01:22 PM PDT Putin's Inane Food Contraband Destruction Policy In an action as economically stupid as president Roosevelt destroying US farm produce during the Great Depression, Russia Incinerates Contraband Food. One year into its embargo on western food products, Russia has launched a controversial campaign to destroy all contraband meat, dairy and produce, using on-the-spot incinerators, dump trucks, rollers and meat grinders.Serious Stupidity This is not "serious work", it's seriously counterproductive stupidity. Plagues of Locusts Invade Russia Under any circumstances, destroying badly needed food items makes no sense, and the insanity of such actions is heightened by the report Plagues of Locusts Darken Skies, Threaten Crops in Southern Russia. Waves of locusts began around July 20, according to Stavropol's regional agricultural ministry. Vasilii Yegorov, a deputy agricultural minister, told ABC News that locusts appear in the region every year but normally they are able to exterminate them before they hatch.Video of Swarming Locusts I propose a simple economic law. Law of Asset Destruction
To dispute point number one, someone may point to a "teardown" that makes a property more valuable, but in such cases the "teardown" itself should properly be considered a liability on the overall asset. Putin Enforces EU Embargo on Russia Once confiscated, rightly or wrongly, those food items became state assets. And Putin destroyed them. In the process, he missed a grand opportunity to make a mockery of the EU's alleged embargo. Putin could have and should have said "In spite of EU food embargoes, we get food items from France, Spain, and Italy". A golden opportunity to laugh at the world was tossed into the toilet. Putin is effectively enforcing the EU's embargo on Russia! What an economic moron. No other word come close to describing the sheer stupidity of this move. Addendum: I had originally called it the "Law of Productive Assets" but a more fitting title is "Law of Asset Destruction". Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States |
I got stuck in the EZ Pass lane the other day, my transponder wasn't tripping the sensor.
The grumpy toll man walked over, grabbed it out of my hand and shouted, "You've got too much Velcro! It doesn't work if you have more than a little strip." And then he ripped off the stuff that had been holding it to my window, threw it on the ground and handed it back.
Of course, Velcro has nothing to do with radio waves. And this professional, who had spent years doing nothing but facilitating the interactions between antennae and transponders, refused to believe that, because radio waves are mysterious.
As mysterious as everything else we deal with at work.
We all have superstitions. What time to post? How to dress for a certain kind of meeting. How long to spend at lunch, and whether or not the boss notices if we answer emails within two minutes instead of five...
The idea that spicy foods caused ulcers persisted as a superstition for more than twenty years after doctors proved it was bacteria that were responsible. And countless people were bled by barbers, in the vain hope that it would cure disease.
We're wired to be superstitious (so are dogs, parrots and most other creatures trying to survive), and if your favorite false causation make you feel like you have a bit more control over things, enjoy it. But just as we'd rather not have a veterinarian that brings a rabbit foot into the operating room, when in doubt, it pays to understand what's actually happening and what's merely a crutch.
Especially if you're a rabbit.
[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]
Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.
Damn Cool Pics |
Bad Girls That Took Drop Dead Sexy Mugshots Posted: 06 Aug 2015 09:19 PM PDT Because there's never a bad for a beautiful woman to decide she wants to look sexy in front of the camera. Possession of a controlled substance Domestic battery Open Container Grand Theft Public Intoxication Shoplifting Domestic Violence Battery Underage Possession of Alcohol & Disorderly Conduct DUI Shoplifting DUI Violating probation Trespassing "Violating statutes governing sexually oriented businesses." Driving under suspension Disorderly conduct Criminal mischief between $50-$500 Arson DUI and fraudulent use of personal information Resisting officer without violence Possession of cocaine |
You are subscribed to email updates from Damn Cool Pictures To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States |
Posted by randfish
There's no doubt that quite a bit has changed about SEO, and that the field is far more integrated with other aspects of online marketing than it once was. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand pushes back against the idea that effective modern SEO doesn't require any technical expertise, outlining a fantastic list of technical elements that today's SEOs need to know about in order to be truly effective.
Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week I'm going to do something unusual. I don't usually point out these inconsistencies or sort of take issue with other folks' content on the web, because I generally find that that's not all that valuable and useful. But I'm going to make an exception here.
There is an article by Jayson DeMers, who I think might actually be here in Seattle -- maybe he and I can hang out at some point -- called "Why Modern SEO Requires Almost No Technical Expertise." It was an article that got a shocking amount of traction and attention. On Facebook, it has thousands of shares. On LinkedIn, it did really well. On Twitter, it got a bunch of attention.
Some folks in the SEO world have already pointed out some issues around this. But because of the increasing popularity of this article, and because I think there's, like, this hopefulness from worlds outside of kind of the hardcore SEO world that are looking to this piece and going, "Look, this is great. We don't have to be technical. We don't have to worry about technical things in order to do SEO."
Look, I completely get the appeal of that. I did want to point out some of the reasons why this is not so accurate. At the same time, I don't want to rain on Jayson, because I think that it's very possible he's writing an article for Entrepreneur, maybe he has sort of a commitment to them. Maybe he had no idea that this article was going to spark so much attention and investment. He does make some good points. I think it's just really the title and then some of the messages inside there that I take strong issue with, and so I wanted to bring those up.
First off, some of the good points he did bring up.
One, he wisely says, "You don't need to know how to code or to write and read algorithms in order to do SEO." I totally agree with that. If today you're looking at SEO and you're thinking, "Well, am I going to get more into this subject? Am I going to try investing in SEO? But I don't even know HTML and CSS yet."
Those are good skills to have, and they will help you in SEO, but you don't need them. Jayson's totally right. You don't have to have them, and you can learn and pick up some of these things, and do searches, watch some Whiteboard Fridays, check out some guides, and pick up a lot of that stuff later on as you need it in your career. SEO doesn't have that hard requirement.
And secondly, he makes an intelligent point that we've made many times here at Moz, which is that, broadly speaking, a better user experience is well correlated with better rankings.
You make a great website that delivers great user experience, that provides the answers to searchers' questions and gives them extraordinarily good content, way better than what's out there already in the search results, generally speaking you're going to see happy searchers, and that's going to lead to higher rankings.
But not entirely. There are a lot of other elements that go in here. So I'll bring up some frustrating points around the piece as well.
First off, there's no acknowledgment -- and I find this a little disturbing -- that the ability to read and write code, or even HTML and CSS, which I think are the basic place to start, is helpful or can take your SEO efforts to the next level. I think both of those things are true.
So being able to look at a web page, view source on it, or pull up Firebug in Firefox or something and diagnose what's going on and then go, "Oh, that's why Google is not able to see this content. That's why we're not ranking for this keyword or term, or why even when I enter this exact sentence in quotes into Google, which is on our page, this is why it's not bringing it up. It's because it's loading it after the page from a remote file that Google can't access." These are technical things, and being able to see how that code is built, how it's structured, and what's going on there, very, very helpful.
Some coding knowledge also can take your SEO efforts even further. I mean, so many times, SEOs are stymied by the conversations that we have with our programmers and our developers and the technical staff on our teams. When we can have those conversations intelligently, because at least we understand the principles of how an if-then statement works, or what software engineering best practices are being used, or they can upload something into a GitHub repository, and we can take a look at it there, that kind of stuff is really helpful.
Secondly, I don't like that the article overly reduces all of this information that we have about what we've learned about Google. So he mentions two sources. One is things that Google tells us, and others are SEO experiments. I think both of those are true. Although I'd add that there's sort of a sixth sense of knowledge that we gain over time from looking at many, many search results and kind of having this feel for why things rank, and what might be wrong with a site, and getting really good at that using tools and data as well. There are people who can look at Open Site Explorer and then go, "Aha, I bet this is going to happen." They can look, and 90% of the time they're right.
So he boils this down to, one, write quality content, and two, reduce your bounce rate. Neither of those things are wrong. You should write quality content, although I'd argue there are lots of other forms of quality content that aren't necessarily written -- video, images and graphics, podcasts, lots of other stuff.
And secondly, that just doing those two things is not always enough. So you can see, like many, many folks look and go, "I have quality content. It has a low bounce rate. How come I don't rank better?" Well, your competitors, they're also going to have quality content with a low bounce rate. That's not a very high bar.
Also, frustratingly, this really gets in my craw. I don't think "write quality content" means anything. You tell me. When you hear that, to me that is a totally non-actionable, non-useful phrase that's a piece of advice that is so generic as to be discardable. So I really wish that there was more substance behind that.
The article also makes, in my opinion, the totally inaccurate claim that modern SEO really is reduced to "the happier your users are when they visit your site, the higher you're going to rank."
Wow. Okay. Again, I think broadly these things are correlated. User happiness and rank is broadly correlated, but it's not a one to one. This is not like a, "Oh, well, that's a 1.0 correlation."
I would guess that the correlation is probably closer to like the page authority range. I bet it's like 0.35 or something correlation. If you were to actually measure this broadly across the web and say like, "Hey, were you happier with result one, two, three, four, or five," the ordering would not be perfect at all. It probably wouldn't even be close.
There's a ton of reasons why sometimes someone who ranks on Page 2 or Page 3 or doesn't rank at all for a query is doing a better piece of content than the person who does rank well or ranks on Page 1, Position 1.
Then the article suggests five and sort of a half steps to successful modern SEO, which I think is a really incomplete list. So Jayson gives us;
The thing is there's nothing actually wrong with any of these. They're all, generally speaking, correct, either directly or indirectly related to SEO. The one about local relevance, I have some issue with, because he doesn't note that there's a separate algorithm for sort of how local SEO is done and how Google ranks local sites in maps and in their local search results. Also not noted is that rising in social popularity won't necessarily directly help your SEO, although it can have indirect and positive benefits.
I feel like this list is super incomplete. Okay, I brainstormed just off the top of my head in the 10 minutes before we filmed this video a list. The list was so long that, as you can see, I filled up the whole whiteboard and then didn't have any more room. I'm not going to bother to erase and go try and be absolutely complete.
But there's a huge, huge number of things that are important, critically important for technical SEO. If you don't know how to do these things, you are sunk in many cases. You can't be an effective SEO analyst, or consultant, or in-house team member, because you simply can't diagnose the potential problems, rectify those potential problems, identify strategies that your competitors are using, be able to diagnose a traffic gain or loss. You have to have these skills in order to do that.
I'll run through these quickly, but really the idea is just that this list is so huge and so long that I think it's very, very, very wrong to say technical SEO is behind us. I almost feel like the opposite is true.
We have to be able to understand things like;
Downtime procedures. So there's specifically a... I can't even remember. It's a 5xx code that you can use. Maybe it was a 503 or something that you can use that's like, "Revisit later. We're having some downtime right now." Google urges you to use that specific code rather than using a 404, which tells them, "This page is now an error."
Disney had that problem a while ago, if you guys remember, where they 404ed all their pages during an hour of downtime, and then their homepage, when you searched for Disney World, was, like, "Not found." Oh, jeez, Disney World, not so good.
Then there are tons of parameters, like in URL and in anchor, and da, da, da, da. In anchor doesn't work anymore, never mind about that one.
I have to go faster, because we're just going to run out of these. Like, come on. Interpreting and leveraging data in Google Search Console. If you don't know how to use that, Google could be telling you, you have all sorts of errors, and you don't know what they are.
Okay, I'm going to take a deep breath and relax. I don't know Jayson's intention, and in fact, if he were in this room, he'd be like, "No, I totally agree with all those things. I wrote the article in a rush. I had no idea it was going to be big. I was just trying to make the broader points around you don't have to be a coder in order to do SEO." That's completely fine.
So I'm not going to try and rain criticism down on him. But I think if you're reading that article, or you're seeing it in your feed, or your clients are, or your boss is, or other folks are in your world, maybe you can point them to this Whiteboard Friday and let them know, no, that's not quite right. There's a ton of technical SEO that is required in 2015 and will be for years to come, I think, that SEOs have to have in order to be effective at their jobs.
All right, everyone. Look forward to some great comments, and we'll see you again next time for another edition of Whiteboard Friday. Take care.
Video transcription by Speechpad.com
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
You are subscribed to the Moz Blog newsletter sent from 1100 Second Avenue, Seattle, WA 98101 United States To stop receiving those e-mails, you can unsubscribe now. | Newsletter powered by FeedPress |