| |||||||
|
joi, 17 septembrie 2015
All the latest news from people you know
miercuri, 16 septembrie 2015
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
| MIT Researchers Solve Temperature Problem in 3D Printing Glass; End of Glass Blowers? Posted: 16 Sep 2015 03:01 PM PDT Are custom glass blowers next in line to be replaced by robots? The problem has always been in working with temperatures at close to 2000 degrees Fahrenheit. However, MIT researchers have solved the problem. Please consider Scientists Develop New High-Temperature System to 3D Print Transparent Glass. MIT researchers have for the first time developed a new high-temperature system that can produce 3D printed transparent glass objects.Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Posted: 16 Sep 2015 10:55 AM PDT If you are looking for evidence that QE has done anything to improve income for the bottom half of the nation you will not find it in data released today from the Census Bureau. Please consider the census report on Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States for 2014. Highlights
Real Median Household Income  Household Income Progress
Real median household income for all races is 6.5 percent lower than 2007, and 7.2 percent lower than the median household income peak ($57,843) that occurred in 1999. Earnings of Men vs. Women - Fulltime Workers  Earnings Progress
By the way, those "real earnings" numbers assume you believe the government's measure of inflation. Note that the CPI does not reflect home prices or property taxes, and is at best a crude, inefficient, measure of prices. Poverty  The poverty rate is where it was in 1966. On August 20, 1964, President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the "Economic Opportunity Act" kicking off his "Great Society" and the "War on Poverty". Johnson stated "Our aim is not only to relieve the symptom of poverty, but to cure it and, above all, to prevent it". Until Johnson declared a war on poverty there was actually progress on poverty. In 1996, president Bill Clinton signed the "Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act" on a mission to "end welfare as we know it". President Clinton succeeded, in a perverse way. For details of Clinton's success, please see States Have an Incentive to Promote (Not Stop) Disability Fraud; So How Much Fraud Is There? Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
Announcing MozCon Local 2016! - Moz Blog
Announcing MozCon Local 2016!
Posted by EricaMcGillivray
Looking to level up your local marketing and SEO skills? Join us in Seattle for MozCon Local, Thursday and Friday, February 18-19. With both an all-day conference and a half-day workshop, you'll hear from top local speakers on topics critical to local marketing, including local link building, app search, mobile optimization, content creation, and so much more. For those who attended LocalUp Advanced last year, this is its newest iteration.
For Friday's main show, we'll have a full day of speakers giving in-depth presentations with tons of actionable tips. Whether you're an in-house or agency marketer, a Yellow Pages publisher, or a consultant, you'll come away with a long to-do list and new knowledge. Plus, you'll be able to interact directly with speakers both during Q&A sessions and around the conference, and spend time getting to know your fellow local marketers.
We've teamed with our friends at Local U again to bring you in-depth workshops on Thursday afternoon. If you have specific questions and needs for your clients or local marketing, they'll be able to dive into the details, give advice, and address issues unique to your business. For those of you who attended last year's LocalUp, you'll remember the great Q&A sessions. Local U is planning a couple different tracks from agency management to recommended tools, which will be a blast.
Buy your MozCon Local 2016 ticket!
Some of our great speakers (more coming!)
Darren Shaw
Whitespark
Darren Shaw is the President and Founder of Whitespark, a company that builds software and provides services to help businesses with local search. He's widely regarded in the local SEO community as an innovator, one whose years of experience working with massive local data sets have given him uncommon insights into the inner workings of the world of citation-building and local search marketing. Darren has been working on the web for over 16 years and loves everything about local SEO.
David Mihm
Moz
David Mihm is one of the world's leading practitioners of Local search engine marketing. He has created and promoted search-friendly websites for clients of all sizes since the early 2000's. David co-founded GetListed.org, which he sold to Moz in November 2012.
Ed Reese
Sixth Man Marketing
Ed Reese leads a talented analytics and usability team at his firm Sixth Man Marketing, is a co-founder of LocalU, and an adjunct professor of digital marketing at Gonzaga University. In his free time, he optimizes his foosball and disc golf technique and spends time with his wife and two boys.
Emily Grossman
MobileMoxie
Emily Grossman is a Mobile Marketing Specialist at MobileMoxie, and she has been working with mobile apps since the early days of the app stores in 2010. She specializes in app search marketing, with a focus on strategic deep linking, app indexing, app launch strategy, and app store optimization (ASO).
Lindsay Wassell
Keyphraseology
Lindsay Wassell's been herding bots and wrangling SERPs since 2001. She has a zeal for helping small businesses grow with improved digital presence. Lindsay is the CEO and founder of Keyphraseology.
Mary Bowling
Ignitor Digital
Mary Bowling's been in SEO since 2003 and has specialized in Local SEO since 2006. When she's not writing about, teaching, consulting and doing internet marketing, you'll find her rafting, biking, and skiing/snowboarding in the mountains and deserts of Colorado and Utah.
Mike Ramsey
Nifty Marketing
Mike Ramsey is the president of Nifty Marketing and a founding faculty member of Local University. He is a lover of search and social with a heavy focus in local marketing and enjoys the chess game of entrepreneurship and business management. Mike loves to travel and loves his home state of Idaho.
Rand Fishkin
Moz
Rand Fishkin uses the ludicrous title, Wizard of Moz. He's founder and former CEO of Moz, co-author of a pair of books on SEO, and co-founder of Inbound.org.
Robi Ganguly
Apptentive
Robi Ganguly is the co-founder and CEO of Apptentive, the easiest way for every company to communicate with their mobile app customers. A native Seattleite, Robi enjoys building relationships, running, reading, and cooking.
MozCon Local takes place at our headquarters in Seattle, which means you'll be spending the day in the MozPlex. In addition to all the learning, we'll be providing great swag. Thursday's workshops will have a snack break and networking time, and for Friday's show your ticket includes breakfast, lunch, and two snack breaks. Additionally, on Friday evening, we'll have a networking party so you meet those attending, some who you may have only met on Twitter. Face-to-face ftw!
We're expecting around 200 people to join us, including speakers, Mozzers, and Local U staff. LocalUp Advanced sold out last year, and we expect MozCon Local to sell out, too, so you'll want to buy your ticket now!
Our best early-bird prices:
| Ticket | Normal price | Early-bird price |
|---|---|---|
| Friday conference Moz or LocalU subscriber ticket | $399 | |
| Friday conference GA ticket | $699 | |
| Thursday workshop Moz or LocalU subscriber ticket | $299 | |
| Thursday workshop GA ticket | $399 |
In order to attend both the conference and workshop, you must purchase tickets to each. Or you may choose to attend one or the other, depending on your needs.
Buy your MozCon Local 2016 ticket!
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
| You are subscribed to the Moz Blog newsletter sent from 1100 Second Avenue, Seattle, WA 98101 United States To stop receiving those e-mails, you can unsubscribe now. | Newsletter powered by FeedPress |
Seth's Blog : When did you give up?
When did you give up?
The bureaucracy is no longer your enemy. The bureaucracy is you.
And it's easy to blame your boss, or the dolt who set up all these systems, or the one who depersonalizes everything. The policies and the oversight and the structure almost force you to merely show up. And to leave as early as you can.
But the thing is, the next job, like the last one, is going to be like this. If this is the job you're seeking, if this is the level of responsibility you take, perhaps it's not just your boss.
How long ago did you decide to settle for this? How long ago did you start building the cocoon that insulates you from the work you do all day?
Years ago, the spark was still there. The dreams. And most of all, the willingness to take it personally.
You can take it personally again.
More Recent Articles
- Hello, London
- The patina of books and the magic thrill of a new idea
- Shouting into the wind
- Another chance to start over
- Will this be on the test?
[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]
Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.
Click here to safely unsubscribe from "Seth Godin's Blog on marketing, tribes and respect."
Click here to view mailing archives, here to change your preferences, or here to subscribe • Privacy
Click here to view mailing archives, here to change your preferences, or here to subscribe • Privacy
Email subscriptions powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 365 Boston Post Rd, Suite 123, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA.
marți, 15 septembrie 2015
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Strong Start to Third Quarter GDP?
- It's Not Obama's Fault: Six Rules to Live By
- Retail Sales Rise Thanks to Autos; Industrial Production Sinks Thanks to Autos; Last Hurrah for Autos?
- Shocking Weakness in Empire State Manufacturing Report
- Tsipras and Meimarakis Debate; Hung Parliament or Coalition Likely; El Dorado Gold Connection; Does it Matter Who Wins?
- Ben Bernanke vs. John Hussman; Beauty of Truth vs. Beast of Dogma; Four Questions
| Strong Start to Third Quarter GDP? Posted: 15 Sep 2015 10:16 PM PDT In Retail Sales Rise Thanks to Autos; Industrial Production Sinks Thanks to Autos; Last Hurrah for Autos? I highlighted this Bloomberg claim: "Taken together, July and August point to a very strong start to the third quarter for the consumer." Later in the afternoon I decide to check. It just so happened the Atlanta Fed updated its GDPNow Model following yesterday's reports. The Atlanta Fed forecast reads ... The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.5 percent on September 15, unchanged from September 3. The nowcast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.6 percent to 3.2 percent after this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was offset by a decline in the nowcast of growth in real government spending after Friday's Monthly Treasury Statement and a decline in the nowcast of inventories for motor vehicle and parts dealers after this morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve.GDP Now Forecast  The GDPNow forecast following the retail sales and industrial production numbers is the same as it was on September 3. As noted above Retail Sales Rise Thanks to Autos; Industrial Production Sinks Thanks to Autos It was a wash. And 1.5% GDP growth annualized is hardly a strong start. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| It's Not Obama's Fault: Six Rules to Live By Posted: 15 Sep 2015 03:50 PM PDT A reader emailed a link to a preposterous Foreign Policy article by Aaron David Miller entitled "It's Not Obama's Fault". The subtitle was just as preposterous: "The inconvenient truths about why you can't blame the West for what's happened in Syria." Miller's article is the same old, same old flag waving "US never does anything wrong, and should apologize for nothing" type of thing. In retrospect, the article could have been about anything, not just Syria. The article did serve a purpose, however. In the future his entire article and anything similar can easily be replaced by a set of simple rules. Six Rules to Live By
Fake patriot non-apologists are a dime a dozen. But the demagogues who always blame the other party are just as bad, if not worse. Anyone who does not understand how destabilizing US policy is for the entire Mideast has their head up their ass. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Posted: 15 Sep 2015 12:27 PM PDT An interesting divergence in auto production and sales came out in separate reports today. Let's start with sales. Retail Sales Rise Thanks to Autos The Bloomberg Economic Consensus for Retail Sales was for 0.3% growth. Actual growth came it at 0.2%, nonetheless Bloomberg issued a glowing report, largely on autos, but also because of small upward revision for last month. For a second report in a row, upward revisions highlight solid growth in retail sales. Retail sales rose 0.2 percent in August with ex-auto at plus 0.1 percent and ex-auto ex-gas at plus 0.3 percent. These are all 1 tenth below consensus. July, however, shows broad upward revisions with total sales at a very strong plus 0.7 percent vs an initial plus 0.6 percent. Ex-auto for July is revised upward by 2 tenths to plus 0.6 percent and ex-auto ex-gas revised upward by 3 tenths to plus 0.7 percent.Industrial Production Sinks Thanks to Autos The Bloomberg Consensus Estimate for Industrial Production was -0.2%, in a range of -0.7% to +0.5%. The actual number was -0.4%, with an interesting highlight.Last Hurrah for Autos? In regards to retail sales, Bloomberg commented "Turning first to strength in the August data, motor vehicles rose 0.7 percent on top of July's 1.4 percent gain. These are very solid readings for a very important component that points squarely at a healthy and confident consumer." In regards to industrial production, Bloomberg commented "Motor vehicle production is August's disappointment, down 6.4 percent following July's giant 10.6 percent spike." Every month, I keep wondering "Is this the last hurrah for Autos?" We still do not know. Every recent downturn in autos has simply led to a greater rise the next month. Yet, there is one thing we do know: A huge auto slowdown is coming at some point and it will likely hit the economy like a ton of bricks when it happens. It's fully expected in this corner, but economists and the Fed will be "shocked" when it happens. Healthy and Confident Consumer? As for Bloomberg's anecdote about a "healthy and confident consumer", I suggest Bloomberg is in Fantasyland. Excluding autos, retail sales have been generally weak and confidence numbers are all over the map. Bloomberg ought to know, because it comments on confidence every month.
For details, please see my September 1 article, Investigating Consumer Confidence: 3-Month Low? 10-Month Low? Near Record High? Moreover, and as discussed in the above link, confidence and retail spending have at best a weak correlation. Gallup Confidence Update Since Gallup updates its Economic Confidence Numbers every week, let's take a quick look. The latest report came out six hours ago.  The trend appears unmistakable to me, and it certainly is not strong. Nonetheless, the consumer sentiment myth goes on and on. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Shocking Weakness in Empire State Manufacturing Report Posted: 15 Sep 2015 11:17 AM PDT Last month we reported "Out of the Blue" Plunge in New York Region Manufacturing; Optimism Persists As expected in this corner, there was absolutely no reason to be optimistic about manufacturing. Nonetheless, economists expected a snap-back. The Bloomberg Consensus Estimate for the Empire State Manufacturing Index was -0.50, up from the August plunge to -14.92. The economists were off by a mile. HighlightsEmpire State Survey Let's tune into the New York Fed Survey for further details. The September 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for a second consecutive month for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index remained well below zero at -14.7. As in August, declines were reported for both orders and shipments, with the new orders index coming in at -12.9 and the shipments index registering -8.0. The inventories index slipped a point to -18.5, indicating a continuing drop in inventory levels. Price indexes pointed to a small increase in input prices and a small decline in selling prices. Labor market indicators suggested that both employment levels and hours worked contracted. Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally lower than last month, suggesting that optimism about future conditions waned.Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Posted: 15 Sep 2015 10:30 AM PDT Former Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras who resigned on August 20 in the wake of his historic cave-in to the Troika, engaged in a Head-to-Head TV Debate yesterday with New Democracy leader Evangelos Meimarakis. Monday night's debate featured sharp exchanges between former prime minister Alexis Tsipras, who last month triggered the snap election amid a rebellion in his leftwing Syriza party over a new EU bailout, and the centre-right New Democracy leader Evangelos Meimarakis.Does it Matter Who Wins? If we define "win" as ability to form a government after the election, then how can it possibly matter? Both parties have bowed down to demands of the creditors. There is nothing much left to fight over. The socialists and the conservatives are effectively one and the same. Aside from minor squabbles such as El Dorado investment, Greek policy will be run by Germany, with the IMF on the sidelines pressuring Germany to offer more debt relief. One would have to believe Germany hopes Tsipras loses as his final punishment for the preceding showdown, but given Tsipras is now a German lapdog, the only thing that matters is if no one can form a coalition. If Syriza barely wins and Tsipras holds to his "no deal" stance, expect another election, with reforms delayed in the process. Here is the pertinent question: Is Tsipras making a political statement that no deal with New Democracy is possible, or is that really his firm position? Saga Not Over Even if a grand coalition forms, the saga will not be over. Greece will never be able to achieve and sustain the primary account surplus it needs to honor the deal. Ultimately, what cannot be paid back won't. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Ben Bernanke vs. John Hussman; Beauty of Truth vs. Beast of Dogma; Four Questions Posted: 15 Sep 2015 12:07 AM PDT Ben Bernanke the Comedian Of the debates I would most like to see, John Hussman vs. Ben Bernanke would be right near the top of the list. Let's kick off this hypothetical debate with a statement made by Ben Bernanke: "The problem with QE is it works in practice, but it doesn't work in theory." Bernanke made that claim in response to a question if he was confident that QE (the policy of buying bonds to drive down long-term interest rates with short-term rates already at zero), would heal the economy. Evidence In Bernanke's response proved he is a better comedian than economist. The evidence is in. What do we have to show for QE other than one of the biggest asset bubbles in history? Beauty of Truth vs. Beast of Dogma Don't take my word for it. Let's tune into this week's missive by John Hussman: Beauty of Truth vs. Beast of Dogma. Hussman kicks off with a discussion only geeks can understand. But if you read far enough it quickly gets amusing. For example, Hussman posted the following chart of the Taylor Rule (a rule that supposedly will allow the Fed to automatically set interest rates) with this comment ... "It's unfortunate that the Federal Reserve is actually allowed and even encouraged to impose massive distortions on the U.S. economy based on relationships that are indistinguishable from someone sneezing on a sheet of graph paper."  Those who managed to get to that point were in for a nice down to earth set of comments and graphs that followed. When you examine historical data and estimate actual correlations and effect sizes, the dogmatic belief that the Fed can "fine tune" anything in the economy is utter hogwash. At the same time, the demonstrated ability of the Fed to provoke yield-seeking speculation and malinvestment is as clear as day. An activist Federal Reserve is an engine of disaster and little more. Even with the best intentions, a dogmatic Fed, unrestrained by reasonable rules and constraints, is a reckless and deceptive beast, constantly offering to heal the nation with precisely the same actions that inflicted the wounds in the first place.Mistakes Made It's easy to find the mistakes of others (Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman provide endless opportunities), but it's not so easy to admit your own. Although things may not play out the same way next time, my own policy is to admit mistakes, or someone else will do it for you. Here's the key sentence from Hussman that explains where value investors, me included, went astray. "Our own rather painful lesson from the recent cycle was that in the presence of QE, one must actually wait for internals to explicitly deteriorate before taking a hard-negative outlook on stocks." QE did not do a damn thing for the real economy. In fact, by encouraging speculation, QE made matters worse. But until the bubble bursts, QE allows Bernanke and the ECB to crack jokes and Laugh Like a Hyena. Click on link for video of actual hyenas laughing. Four Questions
The answers to questions 1-3 are easy. Non, non, et non! (as my high school French teacher frequently stated years ago).  For investors, question number 4 above is the crucial one. And the critical answer is "yes". Mathematically, it has to be, for the masses. More Questions If the Fed could prevent stock market collapses why didn't it do so in 2008? Why did Japan have close to three lost decades? Why couldn't China halt the share plunge recently? Does only the Fed have the magic wand? Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
Abonați-vă la:
Postări (Atom)
Postări
