luni, 21 septembrie 2015

Seth's Blog : Tires, coffee and people

Tires, coffee and people

The most important part of a race car is the tires. Good tires will always beat bad ones.

The most important part of a cup of coffee is the beans. The grinder, the machine, the barista pale in comparison to the quality of what you start with.

And the most important parts of an organization are the people you begin with. Not the systems or the policies or even the real estate. Great people make everything easier.

And yet...

And yet we spend money on 4 wheel drive instead of snow tires.

And yet we upgrade our coffee maker instead of buying from a local roaster (or roasting our own).

And mostly, we run classified ads to find the cheapest common denominator employee and spend all our time building systems to protect our customers from people who don't care...

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duminică, 20 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Tsipras Wins Reelection in Low Turnout, Same Coalition to Govern; Rule Number One

Posted: 20 Sep 2015 11:23 PM PDT

Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras who resigned in the wake of his cave-in to the troika is back in office following Sunday's snap elections.

The election was supposed to be extremely close, but it wasn't.

Greek polls are notoriously unreliable. Tsipras won his first election by a huge vote even though polls were close. On Sunday the result was the same.

Pollsters had New Democracy running neck-and-neck but in a low turnout Syriza received 35.5 per cent of the vote to 28 percent for New Democracy.

Greek election rules give a huge block of parliament to the plurality vote, so in parliament the score is 145-75 out of a total of 300.

145 is short of a majority, but close enough so Tsipras can form a coalition with the Independent Greeks party (Anel), just as Syriza did after the last election.

Syria Wins Again

145 + 10 = 5 seat majority.

Whether the coalition proves stable is anyone's guess.

The Financial Times provided the above chart (purple highlights mine) and this commentary.

Alexis Tsipras's radical left Syriza party secured a clear victory in Sunday's Greek general election, suggesting his gamble on snap elections after striking a deal on a new €86bn bailout had paid off.

With 90 per cent of the votes counted, Syriza was on 35.5 per cent of the vote, giving it 145 seats in the 300 member parliament, well ahead of centre-right New Democracy on 28 per cent and 75 seats.

Mr Tsipras's win cements his place as the pre-eminent figure in Europe's far-left anti-austerity movement and is likely to galvanise sympathisers including Spain's Podemos and Jeremy Corbyn, the hard-left leader of Britain's Labour party.

Mr Tsipras insisted Syriza would govern for a full four-year term, even though his revived coalition with the small nationalist Independent Greeks party (Anel), announced on Sunday night, looks far from stable with only a six-seat majority in parliament.

But he warned there would be no easy exit from the country's six-year recession. His first task as re-elected prime minister will be to implement more tough austerity measures demanded by creditors in return for a new €86bn rescue package.

Early results put turnout at only 55 per cent, suggesting many young leftwing voters angered by Mr Tsipras's decision to capitulate to Greece's creditors and accept more harsh austerity measures in return for a new bailout had declined to take part, as experts had predicted.

Radical Left?

The above comments by the Financial Times in regards to Tsipras being the "pre-eminent figure in Europe's far-left anti-austerity movement" should have every one laughing or gagging. Take your pick.

Tsipras first ran on a radical left platform, but this time his platform was virtually indistinguishable from that of "center right" New Democracy.

I have no sympathy for radical leftists (or leftists of any kind actually, but I also have no sympathy for blatant liars and hypocrites.

Rule Number One

The number one rule for politicians is "Say or even do anything necessary to stay in office".

With that comment, I congratulate Tsipras for pulling it off, while noting that his problems have really just begun. Good luck with that five-seat majority Alexis, you will need it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Parade of Fed Parrots Squawk About Rate Hikes This Year; Toss Out the Script

Posted: 20 Sep 2015 11:13 AM PDT

In an effort to convince the market that rate hikes are coming, an amusing parade of Fed parrots squawked in full force over the weekend, within an hour or so of each other.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard

Bullard Squawks: Bullard Says He Argued Against Fed's Call to Leave Rates on Hold.

"The case for policy normalization is quite strong, since Committee objectives have essentially been met," Bullard said in slides prepared for a speech in Nashville, Tennessee. "I argued against the decision at the FOMC meeting."

Bullard is not a voting member of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee in 2015, but will vote in 2016.

Richmond Fed Jeffrey Lacker

Lacker Squawks: Fed's Lacker Says Economy Strong Enough for Higher Rates.

"Such exceptionally low real interest rates are unlikely to be appropriate for an economy with persistently strong consumption growth and tightening labor markets," Lacker said in a statement.

He was the lone dissenter among the 10 Fed officials who voted at the meeting. Lacker said the Fed's target should rise by a quarter point.

Lacker has a history of dissent in Fed policy meetings. In 2012, he voted against eight straight policy decisions by the central bank. At the time he was urging the Fed to wind down asset purchases that were aimed at stimulating the economy.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams

Williams Squawks: Fed's Williams Still Sees 2015 Rate Hike After 'Close Call'

An interest rate hike will likely be appropriate this year given the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision last week to stand pat was a "close call," a top Fed policymaker said on Saturday.

John Williams, a centrist and president of the San Francisco Fed, said the arguments for and against beginning to tighten U.S. monetary policy are about balanced now that the economy is on solid footing, giving him confidence in continued economic and labor market growth.

Balancing Act

If the arguments for and against the hike are "balanced" and the case for a hike "quite strong" then why was the vote 9-1?

By the way, wasn't the case even stronger a year ago? If not, why?

The answer to that is the Fed had a script that said "hike in 2015".

These economic illiterates not only ignore obvious asset bubbles, they actually believe a quarter of a point hike can sink the real economy. They also did not want to surprise the market with early hikes.

Why All the Squawking?

The Fed parrots are out in force, loudly squawking the same tune, because Yellen really wants to hike, provided of course the market goes along. Lately however, the market has had other ideas.

The market did not go along with a hike in September so that forced Yellen to come up with a basket of excuses for not hiking. In response, the market has moved the hike odds to 2016, but the parrots don't like that.

Toss Out the Script

Bloomberg says Wall Street Tosses Out Bond-Trading Script After Fed Meeting

Neil Bouhan at BMO Capital Markets expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week. Now he's questioning all his views on the central bank.

He's not the only one. Strategists and traders across Wall Street are re-examining their approach to predicting the Fed's moves after officials kept their target near zero Thursday and released an unexpectedly dovish policy statement. Fed Chair Janet Yellen cited a range of concerns -- from slowing growth in China to global market volatility -- to explain the decision to hold the benchmark overnight rate at historic lows.

The tone of her comments in a press conference after the announcement surprised the bond market, fueling the biggest rally in two-year Treasuries since March 2009, when the Fed said it was expanding its bond-buying program. It also left many prognosticators struggling to pinpoint how to trade in the lead-up to the next policy meeting less than six weeks away.

"There is really no way to look at this market if you can't handicap Fed policy, and they've made that much more difficult," said Bouhan, a Chicago-based strategist at BMO. He doesn't expect the central bank will raise interest rates until 2016.

Lesson Learned

"What we learned from yesterday is that Treasuries are a buy either way," Guy Haselmann, head of capital market strategy with Scotiabank, wrote in a note to clients Friday.

John Briggs, head of strategy for the Americas at RBS Securities Inc., echoed the plea for more clarity. He compiled a list of 10 broad economic concerns that Yellen cited in the press conference, including energy prices, U.S. financial conditions and weaknesses in emerging markets.

"It's not common for the Fed to name all these things," he said from the firm's Stamford, Connecticut, office. "Where do they rank? Now we don't even know what to look at to determine whether they will raise rates or not."

Shifting Odds

Following the FOMC meeting, I reported Rate Hike Odds Shift to January 2016; 16.1% Chance of Hike in October.

The parrots are not happy with this shift in opinion, so they are squawking. They should have tried squawking at the meeting or before the meeting instead of now.

As a result, anyone with any bit of common sense wonders if the Fed will hike at all.

I concluded "By December, the economic data is likely to be weakening so much, that the Fed may not hike until the next recession is over."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Pathfinding

Pathfinding

Some simple arithmetic will show you how much time you're spending on finding the path:

[The amount of time it took you to do it last time] minus [the amount of time it will take you next time]

If you come up with something close to zero, then you're running the path, doing it consistently and spending almost no time at all finding a path. You've already found one.

On the other hand, if the first time it took you to write that novel was 8 years, and retyping it would take five days, you're spending virtually all of your time finding out where you're going, not actually typing. Which is why writing novels is more difficult than commuting to work.

A few things to consider as you develop your skills as a pathfinder:

If the value you create is in finding the path, are you being patient and generous with yourself as you hack your way through the weeds? You're not a typist, you're an explorer.
Are others significantly more efficient and productive at finding paths in your industry? If so, it probably pays to learn what they've figured out.
If you're not spending much time at all on pathfinding, what would happen if you did?

Lots of people run paths. Very few have the guts to find a new one.

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sâmbătă, 19 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Showdown in Spain: Independence Parties to Increase Majority in Regional Parliament; Spanish Banks Warn Against Catalonia Independence

Posted: 19 Sep 2015 12:22 PM PDT

On September 27, the Catalonia region of Spain holds parliamentary elections.

It now seems near-certain that Catalan political parties favoring independence will increase their outright majority of seats, putting the region on a collision path with the central government in Madrid.

Voter Intentions

Thanks to reader Bran who lives in Spain for the El Pais Article that contained the above graph. Translation and anecdotes by me.

Together for Yes

Earlier this year, the political parties Convergence and Union (CiU) and the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) entered a coalition. The result was Junts pel Sí which means "Together for Yes".

If the outcome is as expected, "Together for Yes" would fall one vote short of an outright majority. However, the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) is expected to pick up 10-11 seats.

Although CUP did not join the "Together for Yes" coalition, it is firmly in the independence camp.

Total them up and you have 78 votes for independence and 57 votes to remain with Madrid.

Spanish Banks Warn Against Catalonia Independence

With that backdrop, Madrid and the banks are both upset.

The Financial Times reports Spanish Banks Warn of Financial Risks of Catalonia Independence.

Spain's leading banks issued a blunt warning about the financial and economic risks surrounding the Catalan campaign for independence, saying they would have to reconsider their presence in the region should a breakaway state find itself outside the eurozone.

"The exclusion of Catalonia from the eurozone, following the unilateral rupture of the constitutional framework, would mean that all banks with a presence in Catalonia would face serious problems of legal uncertainty," said the joint statement issued by the country's two main banking associations.

Spanish business leaders and top bankers are taking the issue seriously enough to abandon their long-held position on the sidelines of the secession debate.
The statement was issued the same day as another Spanish business organisation warned of "grave damage" that separation would inflict on the Catalan and Spanish economies.

Crucially, the document was signed by Caixabank and Banco Sabadell — the two largest lenders based in Catalonia itself. In a phrase that echoes arguments made by the Spanish government, the document says that "the constitutional order and the membership of the eurozone for all of Spain must be preserved at all times".

Catalan independence activists argue that an independent state would still belong to the EU, and that issues surrounding the access of Catalan banks to the European Central Bank and other eurozone institutions could be easily solved. Senior European leaders, however, have been consistent in their message that an independent state would be left outside both the EU and the eurozone, at least temporarily.

Showdown in Spain

Soon after the election, expect more talk of a referendum for Catalonia to leave Spain. Also expect the central government in Madrid to declare a referendum illegal and threaten to send in troops to stop it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Remembering Dana Lookadoo - Moz Blog

Remembering Dana Lookadoo

Posted by jennita

Today we mourn the loss of our dear friend, long-time community member, and constant shining star in the industry, Dana Lookadoo.

She passed away early Monday morning after struggling with pain and other issues she endured resulting from her bicycle accident in 2013. Her husband Ed posted about her passing in a private Facebook group many folks were a part of. They will be setting up an education fund that we'll post more about when we have all the details.

Earlier this year we wrote more about the accident, and more importantly about how much Dana has given to this community. From her comments on the blog, to running webinars, and speaking at MozCon, she's been an active, welcoming member for as long as I can remember.

In early 2009, I was the newest member of the SEOmoz SEO Consulting team (yea, we had that back in the day). Let's just say I was slightly scared to death because I was a big nobody, and everyone else on my team was a "somebody" in the SEO industry. What I found, though, was a community of folks who welcomed me, and who made me feel right at home.

During my first SEOmoz Training Seminar (now known as MozCon) that year, Dana Lookadoo made a point to find me and welcome me personally to Moz. She asked if she could get a picture of the two of us. I thought she had to be crazy to want a picture with me. Some nobody. But that's who Dana was. She would go out of her way to make you feel comfortable, to introduce you to other folks, and she always had that big warm smile.

From that point on, Dana and I became industry friends and would run into each other at conferences all over the country. She would inevitably take lots of photos and introduce me to people I was too shy to talk to (yes, I can be shy).

One time at SMX West 2010, I had decided I was going to make a video asking people industry-related questions to see if they knew the answers. But I was having a hard time asking people. I mentioned this to Dana. Of course, she had no problem talking to folks, so she began helping me, introducing me to people, getting the conversation started. She was so dang good at it, so I simply let her roll with it. What came out of it was a silly, somewhat awkward (and a bit horrifying to see the old me), wonderful video.

"Man on Street" - A Who's Who in Search Marketing
Posted by Moz on Wednesday, March 10, 2010

I'll never forget telling her in 2010 that I had just found out I had colon cancer and that I'd be having surgery in a week. She was concerned and worried, but all her thoughts were about how to ensure my recovery went well. We talked about changing diet habits, then went on and on about how to be healthy.

Then in 2011, after I'd been going through chemo treatments for almost eight months, one morning I couldn't get out of bed. I had pushed myself too hard, fallen into a deep depression and my body had given up on me. Dana often called me, and although I didn't actually want to talk to anyone, I would answer, and then just cry. She'd just listen to me cry and tell me how much I was loved. She was concerned and went through the trouble of finding me a well regarded naturopath, made me an appointment and offered to pay for the services! I will never forget her love and her generosity during that horrible time.

The day I told her I had cancer.

After her accident, I went to visit her at her home. I remember feeling so happy to be able to return the love and friendship she had given me during my time of need. Dana will forever be a shining star; she will live on in our hearts and memories.

Dana was always full of love and light. She cared deeply about helping others and connecting people. We all have a story about Dana. I'd love to hear yours.

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Seth's Blog : Ad blocking

Ad blocking

By most accounts, more and more people are automatically blocking the ads in their browser.

Of course, people have been blocking ads forever. By ignoring them.

Fifteen years ago, when I began writing about Permission Marketing, I pointed out that when ads are optional, it's only anticipated, personal and relevant ones that will pay off.

And advertisers have had fifteen years to show self restraint. They've had the chance to not secretly track people, set cookies for their own benefit, insert popunders and popovers and poparounds, and mostly, deliver us ads we actually want to see.

Alas, it was probably too much to ask. And so, in the face of a relentless race to the bottom, users are taking control, using a sledgehammer to block them all. It's not easy to develop a white list, not easy to create an ad blocker that is smart enough to merely block the selfish and annoying ads. And so, just as the default for some advertisers is, "if it's not against the law and it's cheap, do it," the new generation of ad blockers is starting from the place of, "delete all."

Ad blockers undermine a fundamental principal of media, one that goes back a hundred years: Free content in exchange for attention. The thing is, the FCC kept the ad part in check with TV, and paper costs did the same thing for magazines and newspapers. But on the web, more and more people have come to believe that the deal doesn't work, and so they're unilaterally abrogating it. They don't miss the ads, and they don't miss the snooping of their data.

This reinforces the fundamental building blocks of growth today:

The best marketing isn't advertising, it's a well-designed and remarkable product.
The best way to contact your users is by earning the privilege to contact them, over time.
Making products for your customers is far more efficient than finding customers for your products.
Horizontally spread ideas (person to person) are far more effective than top-down vertical advertising.
More data isn't the point. Data to serve explicit promises is the point.
Commodity products can't expect to easily build a profitable 'brand' with nothing but repetitive jingles and noise.
Media properties that celebrate their ads (like Vogue) will continue to thrive, because the best advertising is the advertising we would miss if it was gone.

Media companies have always served the master who pays the bill... the advertiser. At some point, the advertiser will wake up and choose to do business in a new way, and my guess is that the media that we all rely on will change in response. But in the meantime, it seems as though many online consumers have had enough.

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vineri, 18 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mapping the European Refugee Crisis and Where the Path is Blocked; Chain Reactions! Walking Distance
Viral Video of Terrifying Escape Through California Flames
US, Russia Hold Military Talks Over Syria; What Changed Obama's Tune?

Mapping the European Refugee Crisis and Where the Path is Blocked; Chain Reactions! Walking Distance

Posted: 18 Sep 2015 06:47 PM PDT

As the refugee crisis in Europe builds, inquiring minds may be wondering where the refugees are coming from, where they want to go, and where they are blocked.

Here's a map I put together starting from a map posted in the Financial Times.

Anecdotes in red and purple are mine.

Chain Reactions!

After being shut out of Hungary, Croatian Army on Alert as Almost 9,000 Migrants Surge into Croatia.

Croatia put its military on alert after almost 9,000 migrants surged into the country after being shut out of Hungary, which effectively closed its border this week.

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, president, took the move to protect Croatia's border from illegal migration, the state news agency reported.

Croatian officials said they were at their limit, with as of Thursday evening a total of 8,900 migrants entering the country, the latest gateway to the EU for people from Syria and elsewhere. Ranko Ostojić, interior minister, said the country was now "absolutely full", adding: "Croatia will not be able to receive more people."

Just a day before, the Croatian government had said migrants were welcome to pass through Croatian territory on their way to ultimate destinations in Germany or Scandinavia.

Related Headlines

September 17: Bulgaria Deploys 1,000 Troops at Turkish Border
September 17: Migrants Inundate New EU Crisis Hotspot Croatia
September 16: Hundreds Seek to Cross Turkey-Greece Border
September 16: Chaos at Hungary Border as Police Tear Gas Migrants
September 15: Hungary Rejects All Asylum Requests
September 3: Bulgaria detains 125 migrants, sending message to others

The message from Hungary should be clear, nonetheless the Wall Street Journal wrote just today Croatia Buses Migrants to Hungary Border.

An overwhelmed Croatia began busing migrants to Hungary as Budapest said it had started construction on a razor-wire fence at their shared border, in a chaotic day that left stranded migrants angry and confused.

As of Friday afternoon, Croatia had registered about 15,400 migrants who have made their way into the country since Wednesday, more than 2,000 over Thursday night alone, even after blocking most of the roads leading to its border posts with Serbia. It said it was letting most go on to Hungary and another neighboring EU state, Slovenia.

"We cannot register and accommodate these people any longer," said Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic.

I suggest Croatia should have thought of that two days ago when it foolishly stated "migrants were welcome to pass through Croatian territory on their way to ultimate destinations in Germany or Scandinavia"

Slovenia

If Croatia hands them off to Slovenia, what the hell is Slovenia going to do with them?

I happen to have the answer.

Yesterday, the Guardian reported Slovenia Offers Shelter for 5,000 Refugees.

Four hours ago, ABC News reported Slovenian Police Pepper Spray Migrants at Border.

Razor Fence

Walking Distance

Google Maps provides a Walking Perspective of the journey from Syria to Serbia.

The trip would cover 1,400 miles, taking an estimated 452 hours. At 25 miles a day (not realistically possible for kids or anyone in bad shape), it would take about 50 days.

And Serbia is not even the ultimate destination. Germany or Sweden is the goal. From Hungary, they would still have to get through Hungary and Austria, or the trifecta of Croatia, Slovenia, and Austria.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Viral Video of Terrifying Escape Through California Flames

Posted: 18 Sep 2015 03:52 PM PDT

If you live in California anywhere near flames, don't depend on an evacuation order to save you. The order may never come.

The following video Heading toward Middletown on through Valley Fire shows the last three cars to escape the inferno.

Lots of people are viewing this so it could play slow.

Had any tree or electrical pole fallen into the street they would have been trapped.

Discussing the Video

The Guardian has a condensed video and comments from the family in its report Mother Talks about Son's Viral California Wildfire Video.

Julie Wolf was two cars behind her son when he filmed their infamous escape from an explosive wildfire in Anderson Springs, California. She is the only member of the three-car convoy to speak out about footage that has gone viral, after providing a window into the dramatic blaze ravaging the state.

The video, now viewed by over 1.6 million people on YouTube, shows the terrifying escape her family made through flame-consumed woods on 12 September. "Oh my God," her son muttered as he navigated through the inferno.

Wolf said she was "too busy being terrified" during the drive, but her son, who does not want to be named, shot the video.

As of Thursday, the Valley fire has incinerated 73,700 acres and is 35% contained. Wolf said she didn't know the fire was so close until her son pulled into her driveway to drop off a small, electric trailer.

"When my son drove into the property, he had seen the smoke. He didn't see fire, but he saw smoke," she said. "And he said it's right up the hill from you and I think you should start packing."

A mandatory evacuation was issued by authorities at 4pm – several hours before they left.

She said they never received the order to evacuate. Wolf was expecting a phone call from the fire department, who she said had a "system in place to call everybody for evacuation situations".

At one point, her son hit something, cracking the windshield, tearing away the passenger side headlight, and crushing the quarter panel. But the van was "so big and heavy so it just powered through".

"If we had reversed the order of the cars, somebody could be horribly hurt or we could have all hit each other," Wolf said. "We had an enormous amount of luck getting out of there."

Helping Out

The family set up a GoFundMe page Lost everything in #ValleyFire for those interested in helping.

We barely escaped, but we are happy to be alive. She does not have insurance. Because her job involved working on the homes in the community, she no longer has work.

We are setting up this campaign to gather funds to support the loss of income, start rebuilding the house, restocking essentials like food, supplies, clothes, and furniture.

We will be returning as soon as we are able to, to help clear the roads and help the town.

We have really appreciated our friends' and family's offers for support during this difficult time. We set this up to give our greater community somewhere they could make a difference for someone they know and care about. Everyone's contributions mean so very much.

Thank you.

P.S. Julie's favorite numbers are 7 and 12. Even if you can only donate $7, it will help rebuild the house, one nail at a time.

Here is the donation page. I made a contribution.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

US, Russia Hold Military Talks Over Syria; What Changed Obama's Tune?

Posted: 18 Sep 2015 10:51 AM PDT

Russian intervention in Syria has forced president Obama to rethink US policy.

The Financial Times reports US and Russia Hold Syria Talks as Moscow Hints at Combat Role.

US secretary of defense Ashton Carter held direct talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu on Friday to discuss the war in Syria, amid mounting concern in the west over Russia's growing military support for the Assad regime.

The talks started as Moscow indicated it could send combat troops to Syria to support the Syrian military and US secretary of state John Kerry appeared to adopt a softer position towards Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

The Friday phone call with Mr Shoigu was the first time Mr Carter had spoken to the Russian defence minister since he assumed office in March and ended a long period of almost no communication between the two militaries as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.

The Pentagon said that the two ministers talked about ways to "deconflict" their respective operations in Syria, including the risk that planes from both countries could be flying in close proximity, and that both countries were focused on defeating Isis.

Speaking in London, Mr Kerry said that the purpose of the military talks would be to "define some of the different options that are available to us as we consider next steps in Syria."

The Obama administration has long insisted that Mr Assad could not be part of any political agreement that might end the war. However, on Friday Mr Kerry appeared to suggest it could accept the Syrian president remaining in power in the short-term, saying that no political settlement in Syria could be achieved "with the long-term presence of Assad".

The Kremlin said on Friday that Russia is prepared to consider supporting the Assad regime with troops in combat if the Syrian government asks for that, in the clearest indication so far that it is prepared to further step up its military involvement in the Syrian conflict.

What the Hell is the US Mission in Syria?

On September 11, Russia called on US to cooperate militarily in Syria to avert "unintended incidents".

State department spokesman John Kirby said he did not know what Russia meant. Kirby also stated "The most productive thing that they [Russia] can do is to stop aiding the Assad regime."

I responded to Kirby in What the Hell is the US Mission in Syria?

What Russia meant: "Duh! How about US-backed rebels fighting Assad, accidentally shooting at Russian or Iranian backed forces attacking Isis? Was that really so hard to figure out John?"

In regards to Kirby's statement on Assad, I commented "Kirby, just emphatically explained the US number one priority: Getting rid of Assad is far more important than stopping Isis. The US even backs Al Qaeda in that mission under the perverse description 'moderate rebels'."

Perverse Wisdom

The perverse wisdom is there is such a thing as "moderate Al Qaeda rebels".
The perverse wisdom is that Iraq can stay in one piece.
The perverse wisdom is that Assad gets all the blame for the mess in Syria.
The perverse wisdom is that the Kurds should not have their own country.
The perverse wisdom is the US should refuse help from Iran and Russia to contain Isis.
The perverse wisdom is the "House of Saud" is our friend.
The perverse wisdom is Iran must remain an enemy.
The perverse wisdom is the US should be nation building at all in this region.

Abrupt, But Welcome Change

Talking with Russia is an abrupt but welcome change. So is change in the priority. We should also engage Iran on the same issue.

What Changed Obama's Tune?

People may be wondering what changed Obama's tune so abruptly.

Stubborn, arrogant politicians (is there any other kind?) don't suddenly reverse course for no reason. So, what's the reason?

A German article on Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten provides a likely answer.

Please consider Syria: Germany Erupts US Alliance Against Russia.

Germany surprisingly erupted from the anti-Putin alliance of USA: Germany now officially welcomes the willingness of Moscow to get involved in Syria and will start together with the Russians and the French initiative to end the war. The flow of refugees is to be stopped. Germany has put thousands of soldiers on call.

Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen said Germany welcomes the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to participate "in the struggle against extremist organization". It is in the common interest to combat ISIS she said.

Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier even announced that it would start with Lavrov and his French colleague Laurent Fabius an attempt to end the civil war in Syria. Lavrov and Fabius are expected on Saturday in Berlin.

Leading CSU politicians spoke out in finding a peaceful solution for Syria for closer cooperation with the Russian leadership made. Without the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the situation in Syria is not to get a handle on, says CSU chief Horst Seehofer.

New Tune

The Syrian refugee crisis, with millions of migrants flowing into Germany is what changed Merkel's mind. In turn, the possibility of Germany and France supporting Putin in Syria changed Obama's mind.

We should have had talks on Syria long ago, but arrogant politicians do not change policies without a huge amount of pressure.

The refugee crisis created that pressure, not a sudden dose of common sense from Obama.

US neocons and Republican presidential candidates will be all over Obama for this, but talking with Russia is a smart action, even if Obama was forced into doing the smart thing by Merkel. Of course Merkel would not have done the smart thing were it not for the escalating refugee crisis.

By the way, there is a good chance this will spill over into sensible sanction discussions with Russia as well.

This is the story behind the story, and one you are unlikely to see in US mainstream media.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

luni, 21 septembrie 2015

Seth's Blog : Tires, coffee and people

Tires, coffee and people

More Recent Articles

duminică, 20 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Pathfinding

Pathfinding

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 19 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Remembering Dana Lookadoo - Moz Blog

Remembering Dana Lookadoo

Seth's Blog : Ad blocking

Ad blocking

More Recent Articles

vineri, 18 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Arhivă blog

luni, 21 septembrie 2015

duminică, 20 septembrie 2015

sâmbătă, 19 septembrie 2015

vineri, 18 septembrie 2015

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