Central Perk

luni, 16 noiembrie 2015

Seth's Blog : A Thanksgiving Reader

A Thanksgiving Reader

In ten days, just about everyone in the United States will celebrate the best holiday of the year: Thanksgiving. I'm hoping that this year, you and your family will help me start a new holiday tradition.

At its best, this is a holiday about gratitude, about family and about possibility. It brings people together to not only celebrate the end of the harvest, but to look one in another in the eye and share something magical.

In a digital age, one where humanity has been corrupted by commerce at every turn, there are very few Thanksgiving piñatas stuffed with coins, no huge market in Thanksgiving wrapping paper, no rush to the stores. We mostly save that for the next day, when the retail-industrial establishment kicks into high gear.

I'm delighted to point you to the Thanksgiving Reader . The file you'll find there is free, it's printable, it's sharable and it might give us something universal and personal to do this Thanksgiving.

The idea is simple: At your Thanksgiving celebration (and yes, it's okay to use it outside the US!), consider going around the table and having each person read a section aloud.

During these ten or fifteen minutes, millions of people will all be reading the same words, thinking about the same issues, connecting with each other over the essence of what we celebrate. After all the travel and the cooking and the hassle, for these ten or fifteen minutes, perhaps we can all breathe the same air and think hard about what we're thankful for.

It's free to download and share. I hope you'll let some people in your life know about it and incorporate it in your celebration this year. There's no commercial element involved—after all, it's Thanksgiving.

Please share. And we're happy to hear your suggestions.

Thank you for everything you do, and for the difference you make to your family and the people who care about you.

[and for international readers...]

Wherever you are, you could celebrate Thanksgiving today. Or any day.

Not the Thanksgiving of a bountiful Massachusetts harvest before the long winter, the holiday of pilgrims and pie. That's a holiday of scarcity averted. I'm imagining something else...

A modern Thanksgiving would celebrate two things:

The people in our lives who give us the support and love we need to make a difference, and...

The opportunity to build something bigger than ourselves, something worth contributing to. The ability to make connections, to lend a hand, to invent and create.

There are more of both now than there have ever been before. For me, for you, for just about all of us. Thank you.

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duminică, 15 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Japan in Recession Again: How Many Times is That?
Catalan Parliament Approves Plan for Secession from Spain
France Strikes Back; Increasingly Isolated Merkel Refuses to Change Position
ISIS Claims "Only Beginning of Storm"; Poland Backs Out of Refugee Agreement, Says It's a "Great Mistake"; Paris Changes Everything
Hindsight Not Twenty-Twenty

Japan in Recession Again: How Many Times is That?

Posted: 15 Nov 2015 05:06 PM PST

Bloomberg notes Japan Enters Recession as Economy Contracts in the Third Quarter.

Japan's economy contracted in the third quarter on sluggish business investment, confirming what many economists had predicted: The nation fell into its second recession since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office in December 2012.

Gross domestic product declined an annualized 0.8 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, following a revised 0.7 drop in the second quarter, the Cabinet Office said Monday in Tokyo. Economists had estimated a 0.2 percent decline for the third quarter.

Weakness in business investment and shrinking inventories contributed to the contraction amid concerns over slower growth in China and the global economy that prompted Japanese companies to hold back on spending and production. While growth is expected to pick up in the current quarter, the GDP report could put pressure on Abe and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to boost fiscal and monetary stimulus. The BOJ holds a policy meeting later this week.

Second Recession or Fifth?

It may be the second under Shinzo Abe but ZeroHedge posted this chart on the Quintuple-Dip Recession.

Abenomics has been a total failure, as expected. But it did weaken the yen sending the stock market soaring.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Catalan Parliament Approves Plan for Secession from Spain

Posted: 15 Nov 2015 04:07 PM PST

Everyone's eyes seem glued to the Paris terrorist attack and the refugee crisis, but other significant events in Europe merit a spotlight as well.

For example, Catalan Lawmakers Approve Plan for Secession from Spain.

The regional parliament of Catalonia launched a plan Monday to set up a road map for independence from Spain by 2017, defying warnings from the central government in Madrid that it is violating the nation's constitution.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy pledged to halt the effort.

The chamber, based in the northeastern city of Barcelona, passed the secession resolution in a 72-63 vote.

The proposal was made by pro-secession lawmakers from the "Together for Yes" alliance and the extreme left-wing Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP).

Spain's government reacted swiftly Monday. In a nationally televised address, Rajoy said his government will appeal the decision at the Constitutional Court, which has in the past blocked moves toward independence.

Catalan branches of Spain's ruling conservative Popular Party and the Socialist and the Citizens opposition parties had filed appeals to halt the vote, but Spain's Constitutional Court ruled last Thursday that it could proceed.

Later Monday, the parliament began what is expected to be a long, heated debate over whether Artur Mas should continue for a third term as regional president.

While his "Together for Yes" alliance backs him with 62 votes, it is short of the required majority of 68. The anti-independence parties are against him, and the CUP has said it won't support Mas because of his conservative austerity policies and the corruption investigations involving his Convergence Party.

The parliament has until Jan. 9 to form a government or a new election must be called.

By then, Spain will have held a national election — on Dec. 20 — and the issue of how to handle the situation in Catalonia will play a crucial role in whether the Popular Party can hold onto power.

The ranks of lifelong secessionists, who feel that the Catalan language — spoken along with Spanish in the region — and local traditions can only flourish in an independent state, have been joined by those suffering through Spain's economic problems and who believe that Catalans pay more than their fair share in taxes.

Collision Course

Prime minister Mariano Rajoy says "Catalonia is not going anywhere. Nothing is going to break."

But what the hell is he going to do? Send in the army?

Why shouldn't Catalonia be allowed to break away if that's what the people want?

Rajoy says the effort is undemocratic and unconstitutional. Since when do constitutions ever allow states to break away from a country? And if anything is "undemocratic" it is suppression of the will of the people.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

France Strikes Back; Increasingly Isolated Merkel Refuses to Change Position

Posted: 15 Nov 2015 03:19 PM PST

It did not take long for France to strike back. In the wake of Paris attacks, France Launched Air Strikes on Isis Stronghold in Syria.

France launched air strikes against Isis targets in Syria on Sunday night, with jets bombing the Islamist terror group's stronghold of Raqqa.

The French defence ministry said 12 aircraft had taken part in raids on a command centre, munitions depot and training camp in Raqqa. The strikes were launched in co-ordination with US forces.

The commitment to "intensify" action against the Islamic terrorist group in Syria came as France and Belgium launched a manhunt for a suspected eighth assailant, named as Abdeslam Salah, after an assault deemed "an act of war" by President François Hollande. Seven terrorists died on Friday night after six set off their explosives and another was shot by the police.

Besides raising questions over the vulnerability of European capitals to terrorism, the Paris attacks revived rightwing calls for tighter border controls across the EU, further complicating an already fraught debate over the migration crisis.

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, showed little sign of rethinking her approach to migration amid claims that one of the Paris attackers slipped into Europe with the flow of migrants through Greece.

Stressing the need to avoid jumping to conclusions, Ms Merkel said: "We owe this to the victims and their relatives [and] to the many innocent refugees that are fleeing war and terrorism."

Brussels' concerns that the refugee crisis could upend the migration debate and place Europe's passport-free Schengen zone in peril were underlined by Markus Söder, the Bavarian finance minister — of the CSU, sister party to Ms Merkel's CDU — who said: "Paris changes everything." If Germany could not secure its borders, he said, "then Bavaria can take on this task".

Ben Rhodes, the US deputy national security adviser, said he was confident that in "coming days and weeks" the US and France would "intensify our strikes against [Isis] . . . to make clear there is no safe haven for these terrorists".

During what White House officials described as a "constructive" meeting with President Vladimir Putin at the G20 talks, Mr Obama attempted to overcome differences with the Russian leader regarding Syria and agree ways to fight Isis.

Marco Rubio, one of the main [US presidential]candidates, said: "We're going to have to conduct an increased number of special operations attacks, targeting Isis leadership and revealing that they are not invincible."

Meanwhile, David Cameron, the British prime minister, signalled renewed determination to secure a mandate from parliament for strikes in Syria. "It's become even more clear that our safety and security depends on degrading and ultimately destroying Isil [Isis], whether it's in Iraq or Syria," he said.

Merkel Increasingly Isolated

Chancellor Merkel and EU president Jean-Claude Juncker are increasingly isolated with their open arms refugee policy. Merkel typically blows with the wind of public sentiment, but this time she has not.

Before the attack, German finance minister called Merkel "Careless". I accurately responded "Merkel is Reckless, Not Careless".

And now Markus Söder, the Bavarian finance minister in Merkel's sister CDU party, threatened to secure its borders if Merkel wouldn't.

Meanwhile, Obama seeking common ground with Putin is a welcome event.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

ISIS Claims "Only Beginning of Storm"; Poland Backs Out of Refugee Agreement, Says It's a "Great Mistake"; Paris Changes Everything

Posted: 15 Nov 2015 09:33 AM PST

ISIS Claims Only The Beginning

Lots of fresh details this morning on the terror in Paris. The First Attacker Identified.

France could extend its state of emergency beyond 12 days, the prime minister has said, as officials identified one of the Paris terror attackers as Omar Ismael Mostefai, a 29-year-old Frenchman of Algerian origin, who had been flagged for links to Islamist radicalism.

Manuel Valls said the state of emergency, which gives sweeping investigating powers to police, could be extended. This would require a vote in parliament.

He said France would extend its action in Syria in the coming days to "hit, annihilate Daesh", the name French officials use to describe Isis. He said France's strategy in Syria would be debated in parliament in eight days time.

A Syrian passport — confirmed as being used in Greece last month — was found near one of the attackers close to France's national stadium where three explosions occurred.

Isis issued a statement on Saturday saying "this is only the beginning of the storm" after French president François Hollande blamed the bloody attacks on the organisation in a televised address.

French interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve has laid out new security measures as part of the national state of emergency: police will be allowed to restrict circulation in some areas, perform house searches more easily, and shut down businesses such as concert halls and bars. Demonstrations will not be authorised in Paris until Thursday and security at railway stations and airports will be reinforced.

Events in Paris are unlikely to make the chance of a peaceful solution in Syria any easier, however, and are instead likely to play into the hands of hawks keen to ramp up military action and foreign supporters of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Washington and its allies say Mr Assad's brutality and connivance created Isis.

ISIS a US/UK Creation

The idea that Assad's brutality created ISIS is absurd. ISIS arose in the wake of the US taking out Saddam Hussein for no good reason.

Note that UK Prime Minister Tony Blair Apologized for Creation of ISIS.

A bit of honesty and self-assessment from the US would be a welcome event. But don't expect that to happen. The US never admits anything, but instead keeps making the same mistakes over and over again.

Syrian Passport a Fake

ZeroHedge has detailed coverage of the Syrian passport issue in The False Flag Link: Passport "Found" Next To Suicide Bomber Was "Definitely A Forgery".

ZeroHedge posted a comic with these comments "The following cartoon best captures the idiocy of anyone actually believing a suicide bomber would have brought their actual passport to what they knew would be their last act on earth. Is bringing your own passport to an event that will be your last, really that crucial, especially when the passport is such a critical smoking gun?"

Well, yes, if the goal was to have the passport found. The issue here is not whether the passport was a fake, but rather if it was the method of entry for the terrorists. ISIS can spread more fear by purposely leaving such a passport.

I can easily see why they would want to leave their passport. Whether or not that passport provided entry to a terrorist remains to be seen.

ISIS stated it would use Syrian passports to infiltrate EU countries. That threat is certainly credible, isn't it?

Great Mistake

Unsurprisingly, Paris Attacks Spur Fresh Calls for New EU Border Controls.

Tensions are particularly fraught in Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel is already under fire from within her own centre-right grouping for her open stance on immigration.

Markus Söder, the Bavarian finance minister and a member of Ms Merkel's CSU sister party, on Sunday called for more checks on the German border and said his southern border region would take matters into its own hands if Berlin did not do more.

"Paris changes everything," Mr Söder told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper. If Germany cannot secure its borders . . . then Bavaria can take on this task".

Horst Seehofer, the Bavarian prime minister, on Sunday called for federal police to impose controls on all border crossings with Austria.

Political leaders in Poland and Slovakia warned that the influx of migrants into Europe posed security risks, with the incoming rightwing government in Warsaw insisting it was no longer willing to accept refugees under a recently agreed EU policy to relocate some of the thousands of migrants arriving in Greece and Italy across the bloc.

"Everyone must now assess how great a mistake is to try to settle a large Muslim immigrant community in Poland," said Antoni Macierewicz, defence minister in the incoming Law and Justice party government.

Yes, mistakes have been made. Serious mistakes.

EU president, Jean-Claude Juncker still does not see them. On Sunday, Juncker rebuked those attempting to use the attacks to change EU policy as populists who are improperly equating asylum-seekers with outlaws.

What a fool.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Hindsight Not Twenty-Twenty

Posted: 15 Nov 2015 12:49 AM PST

In an opinion piece on MarketWatch, writer Steve Goldstein says Paris Attacks Show U.S. Should Reverse Policy on Syria's Assad.

Bashar al-Assad is a vile and murderous dictator. We should embrace him.

That's an alternative that should be on the table in the wake of the attacks on Paris apparently committed by the Islamic State.

There may well have a been a time for a credible, back-an-Assad-alternative strategy in Syria, but years of dithering and an unwillingness to provide even air support by the White House has taken that off the table.

Yes, it will be revolting to embrace Assad — and his patron, Vladimir Putin. But it's better to cozy up to the fascists who don't want to kill you than the fascists who do.

Give Credit Where Credit Is Due

I give zero credit to after-the-fact quarterbacking by Steve Goldstein.

I do give credit to the tiny percentage of us who noted up-front how insane it was to remove Saddam Hussein.

And in regards to Syria, those thinking properly never backed support for the alleged "moderate" Al Qaeda rebels seeking to overthrow Assad.

Negative Credit

The best Goldstein can come up with is "There may well have a been a time for a credible, back-an-Assad-alternative strategy in Syria ..."

Quite frankly, there was NEVER a credible time to overthrow Assad. There was NEVER a credible time to militarily take out Saddam Hussein.

Johnny-come-latelys like Goldstein are like those rooting for policy A then taking an "I told you so" stance when it became clear policy B was correct.

Goldstein gets zero credit.

The sad thing is he is better than the last two US presidents, one Republican and one Democrat, who get negative credit.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Surveys and focus groups

Surveys and focus groups

It doesn't matter what people say. Watch what they do.

The story is told of a focus group for a new $100 electronic gadget. The response in the focus group was fabulous, people all talked about the features of the new device with excitement.

At the end of the session, the moderator said, "thanks for coming. As our gift to you, you can have your choice of the device or $25."

Everyone took the cash.

Surveys that ask your customers about their preferences, their net promoter intent, their media habits--they're essentially useless compared to watching what people actually do when they have a chance. The media wastes their time and ours handicapping politics based on polls, on changes in polls, on expectations based on polls—it's sad. Polls are always wrong.

The best part of show & tell has never been the telling part.

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sâmbătă, 14 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

ISIS Claims Responsibility; France Vows 'Merciless' Response; Syrian Passport on One Attacker; Placing the Blame; Repercussions

Posted: 14 Nov 2015 08:57 AM PST

More details have emerged in the multi-pronged machine gun and bombing attack on Paris yesterday in six different locations.

For yesterday's roundup please see Terror in Paris: "Several Dozen" Dead, Hostages Taken, France Closes Borders; Hey Chancellor Merkel.

ISIS Claims Responsibility, Syrian Passport Found on Attacker

The death total is now reported to be at least 150 by some sources, with hundreds more injured, nearly 100 of them critically injured. This morning ISIS Claimed Responsibility.

French President Francois Hollande vowed a "merciless" response to the deadliest attacks on the country's soil since World War II as ISIS claimed responsibility Saturday for a coordinated assault on Paris.

A state of emergency was declared and France deployed 1,500 troops after a near-simultaneous series of explosions and shootings brought the city to a horrified standstill overnight. The death toll rose to 127 and 200 other people were wounded, officials said.

French police were hunting possible accomplices of eight assailants, who attacked concert-goers, cafe diners and soccer fans in at least six locations in the French capital. Authorities said that seven attackers blew themselves up, while the eighth was killed by police.

A statement issued by ISIS later claimed responsibility for the attacks, according to global security firm and NBC News analyst Flashpoint Intelligence. ISIS has previously threatened France due to its military operations against the group in Syria and Iraq.

A French official close to the investigation confirmed to NBC News that a Syrian passport was found on one of the attacker's bodies.

The Bataclan concert hall in the lively 11th arrondissement was the scene of the night's worst carnage. Dozens of people there, according to the AP, when gunmen opened fire during a sell-out concert by American band Eagles of Death Metal.

The attackers held hundreds of people hostage before blowing themselves up. Footage obtained by Le Monde showed concert-goers hanging from venue's third-floor windows while others ran for their lives out a rear exit.

French police stormed the venue after midnight, rushing wounded to waiting ambulances as sirens wailed.

Meanwhile, gunmen opened fire on diners at a string of cafes in a trendy neighborhood, which were crowded on an unusually balmy November night.

One Gunman Known Extremist

In a live feed, the Guardian reports One gunman was 'French Extremist Known to Police'.

The Financial Times also has a Live Feed of events.

Le Pen Says France Must Close Borders, Kick Out Illegal Immigrants

The New York Times Live Blog contains these quotes from Le Pen.

"France and the French are no longer safe. It is my duty to tell you so."
"Whatever the European Union might say, it is essential that France recover the control of its national borders, once and for all. Without borders, neither security nor protection are possible."
"Fundamentalist Islam must be wiped out. France must ban Islamist organizations, close radical mosques, and kick out foreigners who are preaching hatred on our soil, as well as illegal immigrants who have nothing to do here."

Global Consequences

Financial Times writer Gideon Rachman discusses "Global Consequences".

The immediate political questions concern French involvement in the Middle East, as well as the impact of the attack on next month's regional elections. The terrorists are reported to have shouted comments about the war in Syria. France launched its first air strikes on the militant jihadis of Isis in Syria in September, and has been involved in bombing raids on the group in Iraq for many months. It is highly unlikely that President François Hollande will respond to the terror attacks by calling off French involvement in the war on Isis. Indeed, in the short term, an intensification of military involvement is more likely.

The reaction of French voters in next month's regional elections will be watched closely. Opinion polls were already suggesting that Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, will win in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region; her niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, has also topped some polls in the Provence region in the south. The National Front, which has a long history of hostility to Muslim immigration and which has also argued for the restoration of frontier controls, may well benefit in the aftermath of the attacks. Some of its arguments were, in any case, already seeping into the discourse of the traditional centre-right parties.

The terror attacks in Paris also come at a time when Europe is in the midst of a "migrant crisis". With Germany set to receive more than 1m refugees this year — most of them from the war-torn Middle East — the domestic pressure on Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, to close her country's borders to new migrants was already mounting. Even before the Paris attacks, Sweden — which has taken more migrants per head than any other EU country — had announced a closure of its borders to new refugees, albeit as a temporary measure. In the aftermath of Paris, the Ms Merkel will surely be tempted to take a similar measure, easing the political and social pressure on her government. But she will also be aware of the dangerous knock-on effects such an action could have on Balkan countries further down the migrant route.

One possible consequence would be for western policy to focus even more tightly on the defeat of the jihadis of Isis while playing down subsidiary goals, such as the removal of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. But France has been in the forefront of those countries arguing that Mr Assad is at the centre of the problem of Syria. A complete reversal of the anti-Assad policy seems unlikely in the coming weeks.

Placing the Blame

US meddling in the Mideast, especially the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, directly led to the creation of ISIS.
US Drone policy by Bush, then greatly expanded by President Obama made more terrorists than it has killed. Thousands of innocent victims were killed or injured for every terrorist takeout.
The US backed so-called Al Qaeda "moderates" attempting to overthrow Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. In the civil war, millions of Syrians fled to Turkey.
Chancellor Merkel welcomed those Syrians with arms, giving them free money at first, then vouchers for free food and shelter. Millions of refugees passed from Turkey through Greece and the Balkan states for those handouts.
ISIS claimed in advance they would use Syrian passports to infiltrate Europe, yet nothing was done by Merkel. One of the attackers did have a Syrian passport. The threat was not idle, but was "recklessly ignored" as I warned just one day before the attack.
In October, I noted former UK prime minister Tony Blair (who joined president Bush on the inane takeout of Saddam Hussein), Apologizes for Creation of ISIS .

So yes, there is plenty of blame to go around, starting with inept foreign policy by the US and UK, then Germany and Sweden.

Repercussions

Financial Times writer Gideon Rachman missed the boat on the major consequences.

Expect a major loss of freedom in the US with more wiretapping and spying on citizens.

Yet, note how useless all that spying has been. The NSA and similar organizations in Europe did not have a hint of this attack, the Charlie Hebdo attack, or countless other minor shooting globally.

And of course the US warmongers will use this as reason to halt the treaty with Iran even though ISIS is a Sunni extremist group backed by Saudi Arabia.

The really radical US nutcases will seek a war with Iran.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Iceland

Iceland

If every person in Iceland bought your product, loved your music, read your book, would it be enough?

Iceland has a tiny population, but if you had all of them, would it be enough?

Of course, you don't have to go to Iceland to get 320,000 customers. Geography is just one way to seek out edge cases.

Most successes aren't the result of trying to be a huge success and settling for what you get. They are the result of focusing on exactly what you need, and getting it.

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luni, 16 noiembrie 2015

Seth's Blog : A Thanksgiving Reader

A Thanksgiving Reader

More Recent Articles

duminică, 15 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Surveys and focus groups

Surveys and focus groups

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 14 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Iceland

Iceland

More Recent Articles

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