Central Perk

joi, 3 noiembrie 2011

Holly Petraeus gets it

Good evening,

I want to make sure you heard a piece of news from Capitol Hill today.

This morning, Holly Petraeus, who has been leading an office at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to protect military families, went to Capitol Hill to highlight some of the most abusive practices our service members face in today's financial marketplace.

She explained that military families are the targets of predatory lenders. She talked about how many service members and their families struggle to make ends meet -- especially during deployments. And she said that the CFPB will help combat the lenders who try to take advantage of people with deceptive, unfair, and abusive lending practices.

But here's the thing: The Senate still hasn't confirmed President Obama's nominee to lead the CFPB, a former Attorney General from Ohio named Rich Cordray. The bureau needs a director to fully ensure that the debt collectors, private student loan providers, and payday loan providers are properly supervised and that consumers are not put at risk of falling prey to the same kinds of abusive practices that helped cause the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Rich has spent his career advocating for middle class families, and enjoys broad, bipartisan support from the elected officials, business leaders, and consumer groups who have worked with him.

Take a minute to read what Holly had to say, and share her testimony with those you know.

Holly Petraeus is the daughter of a decorated general, wife of a four-star general, and mother of an Army soldier who served in Afghanistan. I don't know if there's anyone who better understands what it means to be part of an American military family.

She just gets the stress and challenges that those who serve in uniform, as well as their loved ones, face.

And that's exactly why she joined the CFPB, to safeguard our military personnel and their families.

Republicans in Congress could be taking steps to grow the economy by passing the American Jobs Act. There is no reason why John Boehner should send his members home to their districts without passing a single measure President Obama has proposed to help put the country back on track. Nor is there any reason why the Senate should require 60 votes on these proposals. Republicans could be helping to ensure that every American family gets a tax cut. And Republicans should be working to protect consumers by confirming Rich Cordray.

We can't wait. That's why I want you to hear from Holly Petraeus. I want everyone to understand how much sense it makes for the Senate to put Rich Cordray to work.

So check it out.

Thanks,

Vice President Joe Biden

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Seth's Blog : Invitation to a three-day session with me in New York

Invitation to a three-day session with me in New York

This is my last public event of the year.

I'm hoping you will consider coming to the Medicine Ball session, which I'll be holding in a loft outside of New York on December 7, 8 and 9, 2011.

I've discovered a few things about the spread of ideas: first, in-person interaction really can't be beat. While digital ideas spread far and fast, there's something really powerful about being in the same room. And second, it often takes more than an hour or two to really dig in and discover not just who else is in the room with you, but what's holding you back and what's available to move you forward. This session is an experiment in generating both skills and breakthroughs over three intensely-focused days.

Applications are processed first-come, first-reviewed, so if you're interested, I hope you'll check it out soon. Feel free to share this invite with anyone on your team who might benefit. Looking forward to seeing you.

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Why Does Great Content Fail?

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 12:44 PM PDT

Posted by Dr. Pete

Mom with obnoxious son With every skirmish in the ongoing war over SEO hats, I inevitably hear someone say “I built great content, and no one cared – content marketing doesn’t work.” I’m not here to deny it – sometimes, “great” content falls flat on its face.

Part of the problem is that we throw around that word like it’s self-evident (“Build great content! Tada!”), but the other part is that we just don’t give our own content a chance to succeed. Too often, it's not the fault of the content or even Google, but what we do (or don't do) after we create that content. Here are a few ideas for evaluating “great” content and putting it into action…

Don’t Listen to Your Mom

Before you even start promoting your “great” content, take a minute to make sure it’s as good as you think it is. Have you ever seen an American Idol audition where some kid came out spouting how they were God’s gift to singing and dancing and then proceeded to look like Charlie Sheen doing a one-man show? Apparently, they never performed in front of anyone but their mom. Don’t trust your fans, when it comes to the really important content. Find some critics and listen to them. The content that people will come back to time and time again usually didn’t get written in one draft.

What Does “Great” Mean?

Just the word “great” is a minefield of ambiguity. We all have some ability to judge quality, but too often our measures of greatness are based on hindsight – a blog post was “great” because it got a lot of traffic, Tweets, Likes, etc. I don’t think there’s any one recipe for great content, but I have seen some common themes, at least in my own content marketing successes. Most great content will match at least one of these:

(1) Great Content Has Credibility

As a consultant and subject-matter expert, my most successful content has been the pieces that really distill years of my own experience. Don’t cover a topic if you don’t know what you’re talking about. On the flip side, don’t underestimate the value of your own expertise, even if you think your subject matter is boring.

(2) Great Content Takes Real Effort

Not all great content has to cost a lot (plenty of unknown brands have proven that), but I think that most great content takes time and effort to create. If you know someone poured themselves into a piece, whether it’s a well-researched post, a well-edited video, or a gorgeous infographic, it says that they respect your time and intelligence. Real effort resonates with people. Respect your readers.

(3) Great Content Is Actionable

This is more a feature of informational content than link-bait, but great blog posts, for example, leave you walking away with something useful. Whether it’s SEO tactics, recipes, or home-improvement tips, if you leave with actionable knowledge, you’re going to remember that content. Give people useful information and help them put it into action.

(4) Great Content Begs to Be Shared

On the link-bait side, great content is something you instantly want to show others, whether it’s out of awe, disgust, or just to show that you’re cool. When you’re done creating a piece, are you eager to hit “publish” or are you just glad that it’s over and you can go home? Create content that you’re proud to share, not just because it might go viral, but because you’re the one who has to share it first (see below).

Market Your Marketing

The great irony of content marketing is that you have to market it. We’d all like to write content that everyone links to just by sheer virtue of its greatness. Some people will argue that that’s “pure” and marketing is somehow a stain on real greatness, but (pardon me) that’s bullshit. Wanting to be recognized solely for our virtues is nothing more than an ego trip. If you sit around waiting for a job because you think you’re a genius, but never apply or never talk to anyone, good luck. Your ego is in your way. The same goes for content. Content marketing requires marketing, and that starts with you.

(1) Reach Out to People

Remember what I said about creating content that you can’t wait to share? Well, here’s your chance. If you churn out crap just to build links, you’ll be embarrassed to tell people about it, and you should be. If you know you built something great, you’ll be eager to show your friends and peers. So, show them – contact people directly and let them know you have something great. Don’t just tweet it once and forget – email people, IM them, call if you have to.

(2) Time Your Launch

Too often, we put hours or days into a piece of content and then just hit “Publish” when it’s done, like 8pm on a Sunday when our whole industry is on planes to a conference that starts Monday morning. Plan your content publishing like you would plan a product launch: pre-announce that it’s coming, time your launch well, and don’t be afraid to re-announce. You’re not going to get anyone bent out of shape because you tweeted the same link in the morning AND the afternoon (as long as you don’t make a habit out of it). Only a small percentage of your followers are paying attention at any given moment.

Although I think timing depends a lot on your audience, Dan Zarrella has written some great content on the science of timing content. HubSpot also has a tool called TweetWhen that you can use to see when you’re most likely to be re-tweeted.

(3) Have a Promotion Plan

It’s funny how we’ll pour our hearts and souls into a piece of content, but then, as soon as it’s finished, we’re on to the next project. Then, we wonder why no one cares. I have to admit, I’ve been guilty of this one too many times. Don’t forget the importance of what happens after you publish your content. Better yet, build a marketing plan that covers those next steps. Hit your social media outlets, actively build links, do guest-posts on relevant sites, etc. We see content go viral and assume it just happened by magic – 10% of the time, that may be true, but the other 90% someone hit the streets and made it happen.

(4) Post It Somewhere Else

It’s tough to put a lot of time into a piece of content and not let it live on your own site, but sometimes you need to go where your audience is. Take Oli Gardner’s massive Noob Guide to Online Marketing published earlier this year on SEOmoz. Oli could’ve easily posted this guide on Unbounce, but he opted to target a slightly different but still very relevant audience. Over 4,000 Tweets and almost 100K visits later, it’s hard to deny that this tactic had a positive impact for his reputation and company.

Greatness Isn’t Instant

One last tip: At the speed of the internet, we tend to think that every success is overnight. Some content takes days or even weeks to make its mark. I think the days of trying to make Digg's home-page left us with some bad habits, and one of those is giving up on content that doesn’t explode in the first hour after it’s published. It’s nice when it happens, but too often that explosion just left behind the charred remains of servers and nothing but some traffic logs to show for it.

If you believe your content is great, give it a chance. It could catch on because of a guest post, a well-placed link, an interview, or any of a hundred factors that happen in the days and weeks after the content goes live. Even if you finally decide it did fail, learn what you can from it. People want to bank everything on one-shot content, but even the best content marketers don’t succeed 100% of the time (I’d say they’re lucky to bat 0.200) – failed content still carries valuable information, and you can build the next piece of great content on top of it.

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Advanced Google Analytics - Tips and Tricks

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 05:07 AM PDT

Posted by Fabian Alvares

This post was originally in YOUmoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc.

Google Analytics affects everyone in search engine marketing (unless you use another analytics package!) but not everyone knows how to take full advantage of it. To take full advantage of it we have to share knowledge and that's what I'm here to do. I'll be sharing some great advanced segments, how to do multiple goal conversion tracking and the secret success behind cross domain tracking.

1. Advanced Segments

Advanced segments provide you with the ability to take your reporting up a gear. So many people mention it, but how and what should I be doing? Asking that question in a mirror won't provide any answers but here's something that will....

Social media segment

If you are paying for social media traffic then it's imperative that you check the value it yields to sales i.e. does it even generate any direct sales? Here's how to find out:

Click on the My Site tab > Advanced Segments > Then click on +New Custom Segment > Choose a name for it > Then click on +Add a dimension or metric > then add "Source" as a dimension > have it as "include" and "matching regular expression" then using a bit of regex, type the following in the field.

Social Media Segment

Click on test segment (check that it works!). Obviously find out the most relevant ones to your site and build up an accurate social media segment. Apply this to your reports and you can now segment your social media channel. Try cross tabbing by goal conversions to find out which channel is bringing in the beans.

Long tail keywords segment

Another useful advanced segment is to understand the long tail demand. Follow the same methodology to get into the advanced segment dashboard but follow this:

Click on +Add a dimension or metric > then add "Keyword" as a dimension > have it as "include" and "matching regular expression" then type the following in the field.

^\s*[^\s]+(\s+[^\s]+){2}\s*$

Long Tail Keywords Segment

Applying this segment to your reports will show you keywords with greater than two words. To filter more or less keywords simply change the number, for example if I wanted searches with greater than four keywords then I would modify it as follows:

^\s*[^\s]+(\s+[^\s]+){3}\s*$

When applied to your reports it will show you keywords with greater than three words.

Non Branded keywords segment

This is useful if you want to understand search without any branded terms. Follow the same methodology to get into the advanced segment dashboard but follow this:

For this to make sense, imagine my company is called John Lewis.

Click on +Add a dimension or metric > then add "Keyword" as a dimension > have it as "exclude" and "matching regular expression" then type the following regex in the field.

Exclude these terms and the misspellings of the brand terms. Applying this segment will allow you to differentiate between non branded keywords. I wonder how relevant this will be to SEOs with the introduction of SSL Search by Google?

2. Multiple Goal Conversion Tracking

Goal tracking is simple, name your goal, add your goal URL i.e. /thank-you, setup a funnel etc. That's all great but let's say we have two paths to get people to register on our site as follows:

Path 1 - www.fabian.com/my_work = they registered from my home page and landed on my dashboard page.

Path 2 - www.fabian.com/download = they registered in order to access my free carpet samples.

Both destinations lead to a registration, so how do you create a goal with multiple URLs? Here's what to do:

Get to the goal dashboard > name your goal > select goal type as "URL Destination"> then enter some regex into the Goal URL as shown below > on the "Match Type" field, select Regular Expression Match and save it.

/(my_work|download)$

Goal Tracking Multiple

You can remove the dollar ($) symbol at the end of it, if you want to capture dynamic elements.

To see a breakdown of the goal and to check that it is recording the correct pages, use the Goal Verification Report or Goal URLs (new analytics). I've tested this and it works 100%.

3. Cross Domain Tracking

The GA tracking cookies are first party cookies, which mean they can be used only by the website that sets them. If a visitor decided to leave the site to a different domain, the tracking cookies won't work. For example if your site accepts third party payments on another site then you will need use cross domain tracking to preserve the referral.

For cross domain tracking to work you need to have the Google Analytics Tracking Code (GATC) on both domains and the third party site must not prohibit query string parameters.

Step 1 – Modify the GATC

Go to Analytics Settings > Tracking Code > Select "Multiple top-level domains" radio button > Google Analytics will provide you with two new lines of code as shown below.

Cross Domain Tracking

_gaq.push(['_setDomainName', 'none']);

_gaq.push(['_setAllowLinker', true]);

It's possible to get a cookie with a domain of www.seogadget.co.uk and .seogadget.co.uk which would mean getting more than one set of cookies per visitor. According to Justin Cutroni, it's usually best practice to use the primary domain of your website instead of the 'none'. For example I would use '.seogadget.co.uk' to avoid multiple instances of the Google Analytics tracking cookies.

Step 2 – Transferring the cookies

Analytics has two methods to transfer the tracking cookies between the two domains which are _link() and _linkByPost()

Both extract the cookie values from the cookies and place the data in the destination page URL as query string parameters. Imagine our primary domain is www.seogadget.co.uk and our 3rd party payment site is www.moneyforfabian.com then apply the following:

Example 1 = If your website transfers the visitor between domains using standard anchor tags, use _link()

<a href="http://www.moneyforfabian.com" onclick=

"_gaq.push(['_link', 'http://www.seogadget.com']);return false; ">Buy Now</a>']);

Example 2 = If your website uses a form to transfer visitors between domains then you need to use _linkbypost()

<form name="post_form" action="http://www.moneyforfabian.com" method="post"

onsubmit="_gaq.push(['_linkbypost', this]);">

Once you've applied either _link() or _linkByPost(), your site visitors will be tracked across the two domains.

Final thoughts

Everything discussed has been tested and works like a charm. If you come across any problems implementing these techniques drop me a line on twitter @panduuf or drop a comment below.

As always I'd love to hear your thoughts, thanks for reading it and I hope it's useful.

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How Much Does the U.S. Invest in Infrastructure?

Your Daily Snapshot for
Thursday, Nov. 3, 2011

How Much Does the U.S. Invest in Infrastructure?

The United States is falling behind on investing in the roads, bridges, airports, and transit systems that keep our economy humming. While Europe and China invest 5% and 9% of their GDP on infrastructure, the U.S. invests just 2%.

That's why President Obama is calling on Congress to pass a piece of the American Jobs Act that will invest billions into our nation’s transportation infrastructure and create a National Infrastructure Bank. These measures will put hundreds of thousands of Americans back to work and provide a critical backbone for a strong economy.

Seth's Blog : Are you doing math or arithmetic?

Are you doing math or arithmetic?

I have enormous respect for mathematicians. They're doing work on the edge, a cross between art and science and music.

Arithmeticians, not so much. They are merely whacking at a calculator, doing repetitive work better done by a computer or someone cheaper.

Many fields have precisely this same division. There's a chasm between the proven, repetitive work that can be farmed out and the cutting edge risky work that might just change everything.

When someone asks you what you do all day and you respond, "I take what comes into this basket, do a standard process to it and then put it in that basket," it sounds a lot like you're doing arithmetic, doesn't it? Far better to have a job where there are equal parts magic and art involved in processing the stuff in that basket.

Sure, it's harder to figure out the values of the Ramsey numbers, particularly R(5,5), than it is to add together 318 numbers, repeatedly. It's harder to create an original tweet than it is to retweet. It's harder to find metaphor than it is to work through a to do list. Hard work, true. But worth it.

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miercuri, 2 noiembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Brilliant Moves by Papandreou; EMU Mentions Eurozone Exit Possibility First Time Ever; Who the Hell is Merkozy to Dictate Terms of a Greek Referendum?
Hilarious Video of Eurocrats in Action, Ripping Off Taxpayers and Running Into Walls to Avoid the Cameras
Europe Undeniably in Recession; Germany Manufacturing PMI Contracts for First Time in Two Years, New Orders Collapse
EFSF Bond Sale Postponed Because of Market Conditions; Fake Haircuts, Fake Help
In Praise of Papandreou's Referendum Decision; Eurocrats Terrified of Democracy; Parade of Cowards

Brilliant Moves by Papandreou; EMU Mentions Eurozone Exit Possibility First Time Ever; Who the Hell is Merkozy to Dictate Terms of a Greek Referendum?

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 06:20 PM PDT

As the days progress, the strategy of George Papandreou has become increasingly clear. He does not like the terms forced on him by Eurozone bureaucrats especially French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Not only is he fed up with Eurocrats, he is fed up with Greek protests as well as pressure from political opposition.

I talked about this previously in my post In Praise of Papandreou's Referendum Decision; Eurocrats Terrified of Democracy; Parade of Cowards

Who the Hell is "Merkozy" to Dictate Terms of a Greek Referendum?

The reaction to Papandreou's referendum proposal was swift and severe, not only in the markets, but also at the emergency meeting Cannes between Merkel, Sarkozy, and Papandreou.

Sarkozy and Merkel proclaimed the Referendum was about an exit from the Eurozone.

Really? I ask again, Really?

Who the hell is "Merkozy" to dictate terms of a Greek referendum?

That said, I appreciate the fact that Merkozy now accept the simple fact that an exit from the Eurozone is possible.

This is a major step in the right direction, even if it constitutes effective blackmail on Greece.

Blackmail by IMF, Merkozy

The IMF upped the ante saying Greece will not get the next tranche of money until after the referendum. Hmmm. It seems the IMF and EMU should have thought about that before the last release of funds.

By the way, this helps explain the timing of Papandreou's announcement.

Papandreou's Timing Perfect

Papandreou cleverly waited until he had the funds and anti-Papandreou sentiment was extreme before announcing his referendum ploy.

What transpired immediately following his announcement was a series of on-off-on referendum announcements culminating with Papandreou convincing his cabinet to go along with the idea (please see Greek Referendum Off or On? Who is in Control? Anyone?)

That was an incredibly gutsy but also exceptionally well-timed move by Papandreou.

Yes or No, But to What?

With the above backdrop, please consider Greece to Decide Euro Membership in December Vote as EU Cuts Aid Payments

European leaders cut off aid payments to Greece and said a referendum in five weeks will determine whether the debt-strapped nation becomes the first to exit the 17-country euro area.

Crisis talks ended in the French resort of Cannes late yesterday with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy withholding 8 billion euros ($11 billion) of assistance and warning Greece it will surrender all European aid if it votes against a bailout package agreed upon only last week.

"The referendum will revolve around nothing less than the question: does Greece want to stay in the euro, yes or no?," Merkel told reporters. Sarkozy said Prime Minister George Papandreou's government won't get a "single cent" of aid if voters reject the plan.

The Greek premier declined to say how the referendum will be worded, saying it "is not the moment" to give the exact language, only that "the question is not just about a program but do we want to be in the eurozone." More than seven in 10 voters said they favored Greece remaining in the euro, a poll last week of 1,009 people published in To Vima newspaper showed.

"Markets will remain very nervous, but with the hope that this hard stance will get to more clarity on Greece's situation soon," Marco Annunziata, chief economist at GE Capital in San Francisco, said by phone. "The EU is casting this as a stark choice on Greece's part rather than reopening discussions on the bailout package."

Who Has the Upper Hand?

Quite frankly that Bloomberg headline is nothing but bullsheet until Papandreou relents. But why should he?

Who is it that has the upper hand?

I encourage Papandreou to go "All In". He has nothing to lose. He will not win the next election and he is tired of playing puppet to Merkozy.

Bear in mind Greece desperately needs reforms. However, the manner in which the IMF, EMU, and Merkozy have forced various issues is in a manner that helps only Greek and French banks, and not Greece at all.

Most Greeks would agree with that assessment, whether it is truer or not. That is the likely reason Papandreou's cabinet went along with the referendum idea, after initially rejecting it.

In short, this was a brilliant series of perfectly timed maneuvers that shoves the ball smack back into the face of of the arrogant Merkozy coalition.

Stuff the Ball Down Merkozy's Thoat Until they Puke

Papandreou's next move should be to stuff the ball down the throats of Merkozy so hard that both of them puke.

All he has to do to accomplish that would be to go ahead and word the referendum how he wants. In short, the referendum needs to include a proposal to stay in the Eurozone, as well as a proposal to reject the terms of the EFSF as presented.

Look at the beauty of this setup from the point of view of Papandreou.

Assuming the proposal to stay in the Eurozone passes but approval of the terms of the EFSF does not, Merkel and Sarkozy will have to do one of two things:

Kick Greece out of the European Monetary Union
Renegotiate terms of the EFSF

Either way, Papandreou wins.

Explanation of My Position

Please do not read any more into this than exists. The facts of the matter are French, German, and other European banks made stupid loans to Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, etc.

Banks that make stupid lending decisions (and not taxpayers) should pay the price for those actions.

Greece desperately needs reforms, particularly in the public union area. I support those reforms.

However, I do not support the bailing out of banks. Unfortunately, all this alleged "help" to Greece is nothing more than an obvious attempt to bail out banks at the expense of Greece and European taxpayers in general.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Hilarious Video of Eurocrats in Action, Ripping Off Taxpayers and Running Into Walls to Avoid the Cameras

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 12:17 PM PDT

The following must see video shows Eurocrats in action, ripping off taxpayers and inadvertently running into walls to escape the lights of the camera. The video is in German but has English subtitles. A second video follows with French Subtitles.

The YouTube link Expense Allowance Abuse by MEPs contains additional noteworthy information.

Hans-Peter Martin and RTL in the fight against abuse of expense allowances:

A Member of the European Parliament (MEP) in Brussels earns approx. 14,700 euros per month (~£11,587), according to this RTL Report (in German with English subtitles). How much the MEPs have to work (or don't work) for their €14,700 is the subject of this on-site RTL investigation in Brussels. The video is about MEPs who sign in on attendance lists and then disappear immediately for their weekend. RTL investigating journalists were thrown out of the EU building in Brussels during their work.

Some MEPs try to justify themselves, some to invent excuses, again others flee before the camera and dash off to lifts or also in their confusion bump into the wall (German MEP of the Green Party)!

One-man crusader Hans-Peter Martin, MEP from Austria:
"A Member of the European Parliament earns on an average more than the German Chancellor Frau Merkel and one wants to hide this from the electorate. Therefore, one obviously must get rid of reporters investigating this."

French-Speaking readers may be interested in a similar video French subtitles.

I got the links from Swiss blogger Olivier Crottaz, who has a blog in French, La Chronique de Crottaz Finance.

Inquiring French readers may wish to check it out.

Matter of Perspective

Ironically, the only thing worse than paying outrageous sums of money to these worthless MEP officials for not showing up to work is paying them to show up to work.

Europe would be better off if these guys did nothing at all and the parliament building sold or turned into condos.

Addendum:

Linus from Switzerland writes ...

Switzerland also faced a number of so called EU turbos whose main objective was to join the EMU. Luckily we have constitutional referendums that allowed people to express their opinion. The result was a decision to not to join this most undemocratic structure that will make people hate each other much more than when they were on their own with their own country and currency.

If stupidity hurt, I think Brussels would be one great crying city.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Europe Undeniably in Recession; Germany Manufacturing PMI Contracts for First Time in Two Years, New Orders Collapse

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 10:26 AM PDT

Berlin halved its 2012 German economic forecast for 2012 to one percent. What does that say for the rest of Europe? Will Germany even grow at all?

While pondering those questions please note German manufacturing shrinks in Oct for 1st time in 2 years

Germany's manufacturing sector contracted in October for the first time in more than two years as new orders fell for a fourth month in a row, data showed on Wednesday in the latest sign Europe's bulwark economy is set for a sharp slowdown.

Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell for a sixth consecutive month in October to hit 49.1 -- just above an initial estimate of 48.9 but below the key 50 line that divides growth from contraction.

It was the first time activity had shrunk since September 2009 and it was the lowest PMI reading since July 2009. The sub-index for new orders fell to 45.1, showing the outlook is darkening for the German economy, which recovered from the financial crisis faster-than-expected and outperformed its peers over the past year.

The reading for export orders fell even further in a fresh sign that weakness in key markets abroad and uncertainty due to the euro zone debt crisis is hurting German trade.

Berlin last month nearly halved its forecast for 2012 growth to 1 percent due to weaker expectations for exports.

Trend Not Your Friend

Unless you are hoping for recession, the trend is not your friend as this table of October Final Manufacturing PMI shows.

Europe Undeniably in Recession

With China slowing, the US slowing, and much of the rest of Europe in widely-recognized contraction, the vaunted German export machine has a shrinking pool of able and willing buyers.

Europe is clearly in recession now, including Germany. Expect a dramatic and escalating turn for the worse, because it's coming.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

EFSF Bond Sale Postponed Because of Market Conditions; Fake Haircuts, Fake Help

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 09:46 AM PDT

When was the last time the Fed postponed a US treasury sale due to market condition? I cannot find one although it is possible it happened at some point in a debt ceiling issue.

Today Bloomberg reports the EFSF Delays 3 Billion-Euro Bond Sale simply because it does not like market conditions.

Europe's bailout fund is delaying a 3 billion-euro ($4.1 billion) bond sale after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's request for a referendum on the rescue pact for his country roiled markets.

The European Financial Stability Facility is putting off the 10-year issue "due to market conditions," according to Luxembourg-based spokesman Christof Roche. The fund may wait for the outcome of the Nov. 3-4 Group of 20 summit in Cannes, France before selling the bonds, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

"The developments around the G-20 in Cannes will have a big impact on the pricing of any issue," said Christophe Herpet, a Paris-based fund manager at AXA Investment Managers, which oversees about $735 billion of assets.

The EFSF will use the proceeds of the bond sale to help finance Ireland's rescue. The nation was the second euro-region country to be bailed out, after Greece and before Portugal. The fund said on Oct. 31 that it hired Barclays Capital, Credit Agricole CIB and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to manage the new issue.

Fake Haircuts

In response to the action by the EU on EFSF bonds, Peter Tchir at TF Market Advisors pinged me with this set of statements.

The EFSF pulling a 3 billion bond sale due to market conditions is pretty bad. These bonds are cleaner and safer than the binary default options the EFSF plans to be selling in the future.

Shouldn't the EFSF generally be expecting to issue in choppy market conditions?

It's like a fireman showing up at a house and refusing to fight the fire because, ah, um, ah that house is on fire and could be dangerous. Regling should spend some time focusing on the blocking and tackling of the EFSF. So far markets (equities in particular) are doing a good job of ignoring this, but not being able to sell at a decent rate, 3 billion of straight debt, doesn't bode well for selling a trillion of complex debt.

IIF is still working on the haircut - heck they even called Greece. It is now almost a week since the grand plan and all we know about the IIF deal is that it will be a 50% NPV reduction and help Greece's debt to GDP by 2020.

How about for every 100 euro of Greek debt you get 25 euro of some new Greek 4% coupon 5 year bond and 25 euro of a new 4.5% Greek 10 year bond? That is a real haircut and is easy.

At first I thought the IIF was tricking Merkozy but I now think they were in on the joke - just Greece and the citizens and Geithner fell for haircut headlines.

My only quibble with that analysis is that Geithner did not fall for fake haircuts, he actively promoted them. Otherwise it is spot on.

Fake Help

And note the preposterous and often repeated hype in the Bloomberg article the bond sale is to "help" Ireland.

No, it's not unless I add a few word to the sentence such as "the bond sale is to help rape Irish taxpayers". Ireland would be far better off right now if it had taken the Icelandic approach, calling for a national referendum, giving its voters the chance to tell the EU and IMF to go to hell.

I am sure they would have done so, just as Icelandic voters did.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

In Praise of Papandreou's Referendum Decision; Eurocrats Terrified of Democracy; Parade of Cowards

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 02:15 AM PDT

I do not know what motivated Greek Prime minister George Papandreou to call for a voter referendum on the Greek bailouts (and no one else does either) with the exception of Papandreou himself.

However, there are some rather interesting possibilities (as well as a simple explanation).

The Slog outlines a scenario that Papandreou's bailout referendum bombshell was inspired by Merkel in order to trigger major losses in French banks, causing France to lose its AAA rating, culminating in a total Merkel victory and German revenge over France.

Wow.

As convoluted and conspiratorial as that sounds, it makes for highly entertaining reading (and it's also well presented). On the other hand, my readers know I am a firm believer in "Occam's Razor" which suggests the simplest explanation (the one making the fewest assumptions) is likely to be the correct one.

Certainly, one should never rule out stupidity when that is one of the possibilities. An even simpler explanation is that Papandreou is simply tired of the beatings, and the meetings, and the riots, and has simply decided to "walk away" from the mess by handing the decision over to the voters.

I believe that is the "most likely" explanation even though The Slog presents a very good case that Papandreou Planned this Referendum in Advance with help of his interior minister.

However, planning for a referendum and being prepared for one in advance (if necessary) are two different things. Thus, I suggest (and so would Occam's Razor) that Papandreou saw a potential need for a referendum down the road, and that potential need turned into reality.

One final puzzling aspect to this mess is that just three days ago Papandreou affirmed his commitment to the EU/IMF Troika solution. So what's up with that? Once again no one knows except Papandreou but I will stick with the assessment there is a simple explanation that is not readily apparent right now.

In Praise of Democracy and Choices

With that backdrop, and with the statement I do not like Papandreou personally, I praise Democracy, and by implication, Papandreou's decision.

Is there any reason Greek voters should not be given a choice? I think not. They may not make a wise choice but what is the likelihood that political hacks and political opportunists will?

Iceland Referendum a Winner

Take a good look at Iceland. In repeated attempts, political hacks (with banker's interests in mind) attempted to sell Icelandic citizens into debt slavery. A referendum saved the day. Sadly, voters were forced to repeat the referendum, and once again voters made the correct decision.

Iceland is now in full recovery simply because it told the EU and IMF to go to hell.

No Easy Way out for Greece

Greece does not have an easy way out. However, its problems are no doubt far worse than if it told the Troika to go to hell two years ago.

Greece should have gone bankrupt long ago. Heck, Greece should not be in the European Monetary Union (EMU - Eurozone) in the first place, and EMU bureaucrats are primarily to blame even though Greece lied to get in.

Speaking Against Political Hypocrisy

Peter Tchir at TF Market Advisors (and one of the best authors on Zero Hedge) also praises democracy. Yesterday he pinged me with this set of comments.

If a leader in the Middle East finally gave into months of protest and decided to give the people a real say on an important issue, the Western leaders would be rejoicing. Obama would have a podium and be uttering his support for the Courage of the people who stood up and give the Arab spring his full blessing.

But if a fellow Western leader dares let his people express their wishes more directly than via "their representatives" they are all shocked and outraged. In the meantime other Greek politicians are busy taking advantage to gain power rather than helping their citizens.

Eloquent Praise for Democracy

Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog eloquently discusses democracy in his post Papandreou Calls For Referendum On Bailout

Embattled Greek prime minister Papandreou has found a way to stick it to the eurocrats in a most elegant manner: instead of continuing to serve as everyone's favorite whipping boy, he has decided it is time to let the Greek people themselves speak out on the future of their country. In a surprise announcement yesterday, he told parliament that Greece is to hold its first referendum since 1974 and that the population would be asked whether it wants to accept the conditions of the bailout plan or not.

The eurocracy is at its heart deeply undemocratic – if it were up to the 'technocrats' leading it, national subsidiarity would have long ago become a relic of the past and democratic interference with their plan to erect a socialist super-state would be kept to a bare minimum.

This can be seen by the fate suffered by previous referendums: when the Irish and French e.g. said 'no' and 'non' respectively to the Lisbon treaty, the referendums were simply repeated to get the 'right' result. As Stalin once sagely remarked, it doesn't matter who votes for what anyway – what matters is who counts the votes. So far, the eurocrats have always gotten the results that they wanted, by hook or by crook. Lately this has become a bit more difficult, as evidenced by recent decisions of the German constitutional court, whose chief justice Andreas Voßkuhle even went as far as demanding a referendum for German citizens as well if the government wanted to cede any more of its fiscal sovereignty to the eurocracy in Brussels.

Greece is the cradle of Western democracy - it is only fitting that it should upset the EU applecart by means of actually practicing it.

Eurocrats are Terrified of Democracy

Tenebrarum certainly hit the nail on the head and so did Daniel Hannan on The Telegraph with his post Eurocrats are Terrified of Democracy

Shall I tell you the truly terrifying thing about the EU? It's not the absence of democracy in Brussels, or the ease with which Eurocrats swat aside referendum results. It's the way in which the internal democracy of the member states is subverted in order to sustain the requirements of membership.

George Papandreou, the luckless Greek leader, is the latest politician to find himself being chewed up because he stands in the way of the Brussels machine. On Monday afternoon, Papandreou announced a referendum on whether to accept the EU's bail-out terms. He had evidently had enough of the antics of the opposition party, New Democracy, which kept insisting that Greece remain in the euro, while opposing all the austerity measures necessary to that end – an outrageous stance given that New Democracy ran up the deficit in the first place. Papandreou hoped to force his opponents off the fence: in favour of the spending cuts or against euro membership. Perhaps he also hoped to put pressure on the EU to offer more generous terms.

I wish I could convey the sheer horror that his proposal provoked in Brussels. The first rule of the Eurocracy is "no referendums". Brussels functionaries believe that their work is too important to be subject to the prejudices of hoi polloi (for once, the Greek phrase seems apposite). Referendums are always seen as irresponsible; but, at a time when the euro is teetering on the brink, Papandreou's proposal was seen as an act of ingratitude bordering on treason.

Eurocrats are prepared to pay any price rather than admit that the single currency was a mistake – or, more precisely, to expect their peoples to pay, since EU officials are exempt from national taxation. The peripheral countries are to suffer poverty, unemployment and emigration, the core countries perpetual tax rises, so that supporters of the euro can save face.

It's chilling to write these words, but EU leaders are evidently prepared to vitiate Greek democracy and wreck the Greek economy rather than allow the euro to break apart. Yet even if they succeed in Greece, they may find that their efforts are for nothing. Italian bond spreads yesterday were back at the level that usually triggers bail-outs. We are about to see quite how far the Brussels apparat will go in defence of its privileges.

Parade of Cowards

In contrast to Hannan, Tchir, and Tenebrarum, the parade of bureaucratic cowards terrified of democracy is nearly endless. Here are some prime examples.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in a rare televised address on the steps of the Elysee palace in Paris. "The plan ... is the only way to solve Greece's debt problem." (Reuters)
Daniel Knowles writing for The Telegraph has this story headline - Peace in Europe lasts just five days as Greece turns to blackmail
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said he would try to prevent the referendum plan, saying he would "attempt to see that it doesn't happen." (AP)
Socialist deputy Hara Kefalidou said "I cannot back a referendum which is a subterfuge by a government that appears unwilling to govern." (AP)
French lawmaker Christian Estrosi said on France-Info radio that the move was "totally irresponsible." "I want to tell the Greek government that when you are in a situation of crisis, and others want to help you, it is insulting to try to save your skin instead of assuming your responsibilities," Estrosi said. (AP)
Nicolas Sarkozy's spokesman described Papandreou's announcement as "irrational and dangerous" (Telegraph)
Constantine Michalos, the president of the Athens Chamber of Commerce, called the proposal "an act of political blackmail" (Telegraph)
Antonis Samaras, the leader of New Democracy, vowed – with splendid disregard for his party's name – to prevent a referendum "at all costs" (Telegraph)

Ultimate Irony: Papandreou a Fervent Euro-Enthusiast

Here is one more clip by Daniel Hannan on The Telegraph worth reading.

Euro-enthusiasts in Brussels and in Athens are ready to bring down an elected government rather than allow a referendum. Yet the funny thing is that Papandreou is a Euro-enthusiast. He fervently wants to remain in the euro, and had been planning to campaign for a Yes vote. His sin, in the eyes of Brussels, was not to hold the wrong opinions, but to be too keen on democracy. Leninists had a term for people who, while they might be committed Bolsheviks, none the less behaved in a way which endangered the movement. They were called "objectively counter-revolutionary". Poor Papandreou finds himself in this category.

Help?! What Help?

Of all the cowards, the statement by French lawmaker Christian Estrosi is the most galling: "when you are in a situation of crisis, and others want to help you, it is insulting to try to save your skin instead of assuming your responsibilities."

Whose Skin Are We Saving?

No eurocrat or politician outside of Greece gives a rat's ass about helping Greece. The only skin they want to save is their own.

That realization coupled with my earlier proposal that Papandreou was tired of beatings, meetings, and riots is by far the most likely reason Papandreou decided to "walk away" from the mess via referendum.

It's a pity he did not do so long ago.

Addendum:

Reader Jeff Miller, Associate Professor NSU Oklahoma College of Optometry writes ...

I am also a firm believer in Occam's Razor and I think Hanlon's Razor also applies: "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

joi, 3 noiembrie 2011

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