Central Perk

miercuri, 23 noiembrie 2011

Seth's Blog : Please consider WEIRD

Please consider WEIRD

My latest book, We Are All Weird, came out 8 weeks ago, to very strong reviews and gratifying feedback.

It's likely you haven't had a chance to read it yet. I hope you'll give it a shot. (The Kindle edition runs on all computers and tablets and you can read it for free if you're an Amazon Prime member).

Here's an excerpt from the beginning of the book:

The mass market redefines normal

The mass market—which made average products for average people—was invented by organizations that needed to keep their factories and systems running efficiently.

Stop for a second and think about the backwards nature of that sentence.

The factory came first. It led to the mass market. Not the other way around.

Governments went first, because it's easier to dominate and to maintain order if you can legislate and control conformity. Marketers, though, took this concept and ran with it.

The typical institution (an insurance company, a record label, a bed factory) just couldn't afford mass customization, couldn't afford to make a different product for every user. The mindset was: This is the Eagles' next record. We need to make it a record that the masses will buy, because otherwise it won't be a hit and the masses will buy something else.

This assumption seems obvious—so obvious that you probably never realized that it is built into everything we do. The mass market is efficient and profitable, and we live in it. It determines not just what we buy, but what we want, how we measure others, how we vote, how we have kids, and how we go to war. It's all built on this idea that everyone is the same, at least when it comes to marketing (and marketing is everywhere, isn't it?).

Marketers concluded that the more the market conformed to the tight definition of mass, the more money they would make. Why bother making products for left-handed people if you can figure out how to get left-handed people to buy what you're already making? Why offer respectful choice when you can make more money from forced compliance and social pressure?

Mass wasn't always here. In 1918, there were two thousand car companies active in the United States. In 1925, the most popular saddle maker in this country probably had .0001% market share. The idea of mass was hardly even a dream for the producer of just about any object.

At its heyday, on the other hand, Heinz could expect that more than 70 percent of the households in the U.S. had a bottle of their ketchup in the fridge, and Microsoft knew that every single company in the Fortune 500 was using their software, usually on every single personal computer and server in the company.

Is it any wonder that market-leading organizations fear the weird?

The End of Mass

This is a manifesto about the mass market. About mass politics, mass production, mass retailing, and even mass education.

The defining idea of the twentieth century, more than any other, was mass.

Mass gave us efficiency and productivity, making us (some people) rich. Mass gave us huge nations, giving us (some people) power. Mass allowed powerful people to influence millions, giving us (some people) control.

And now mass is dying.

We see it fighting back, clawing to control conversations and commerce and politics. But it will fail; it must. The tide has turned, and mass as the engine of our culture is gone forever.

That idea may make you uncomfortable. If your work revolves around finding the masses, creating for the masses, or selling to the masses, this change is very threatening. Some of us, though, view it as the opportunity of a lifetime. The end of mass is not the end of the world, but it is a massive change, and this manifesto will help you think through the opportunity it represents.

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6 Cool Ways to Supplement Your Open Site Explorer Data

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 12:47 PM PST

Posted by richardbaxterseo

And so it ends. By the time this post goes live, Yahoo Site Explorer will be gone. Let’s take a moment to silently reflect on the passing of a once great SEO tool.

Thankfully, there are a heap of Yahoo Site Explorer alternatives, with arguably more powerful features available than Y!SE ever had. Today, we’re going to take some fresh link data from your favourite link information mining tool of choice and supplement the hell out of it with even more data. Yey – let’s build a better Yahoo Site Explorer replacement.

A Special Thank You

This (long overdue) post wouldn’t be possible without the assistance of one of the SEO industry’s most unsung heroes – Niels Bosma. He’s the genius behind SEO Tools for Excel, which has opened up another level of SEO data analysis for Excel geeks all over the globe.

I’ve written about Niel’s amazing work over at SEOgadget before, so check out these links for a primer on the basics or an introduction on how to find lost links and get SEOmoz API data into Excel. When you’re done, we’re good to take it to the next level.

Here's the finished product, click the image for a massive, full screen image of this awe-inspiring spreadheet.

#1 - How Many Likes, Google+’s and Tweets Were Received to My Linking URL?

Let’s start nice and easy with a count of the number of Likes, Google+’s and Tweets received by a URL. What’s not to love about a page that received a lot of social love? These two queries will churn happily through your link data until you’ve got more social than you can shake a stick at.

Retrieve the Google+ count for a URL:

=GooglePlusCount()

Get the number of Tweets to a URL:

=TwitterCount()

Get the number of Facebook Likes to a URL:

=FaceBookLikes()

#2 - Are My Links Live and Accessible to Search Engines?

When you’re looking at link data, you’re looking at an internet that has been and gone. At least, you’re looking into the past – and we all know that link decay is an everyday part of the evolution of the internet. To take a super accurate snapshot of your link data, you really need to know if your link is still live.

On that note, check out this clever little formula:

=IF(XPathOnUrl(C2,"//a[contains(@href,'seogadget.co.uk')]")="","NOT FOUND","FOUND")

Translated, it means, “If you found a href link on this page with seogadget.co.uk in all or part of the href, say ‘FOUND’. If the response to that query was a blank cell, say ‘NOT FOUND’.” So you know, the SEO tools XPathOnUrl function returns nothing when no result is found.

#3 - Did Google Even Cache that Link?

In his post on automating SEO, Russ pointed out that not all of your backlinks may have been indexed by Google, and that you should identify them and link to them to get them discovered. That’s a very nice idea Russ! Russ’s solution was excellent, but required some fancy scripting work.

Assuming you’re not tracking new referrers with snazzy custom filters in Google Analytics, here’s an easy way to do it with Linkstant and the =HttpStatus function.

linkstant

First, grab all of the new referring URLs. I do that with Scraper for Chrome. Export the URLs and then in a new Excel tab, put this URL in to cell A1:

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?gcx=w&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=cache:

A cache: request will respond with a 404 if the URL is not cached. So, a simple concatenate, followed by a "=HTTPstatus" will give you a list of URLs that Google has cached.

This is probably not the best way, but it works just the way you'd expect it to, most of the time:

=CONCATENATE($A$1,[@URL])

Where $A$1 is our cache request URL.

Next, use this function to get the http status of the URL:

=HttpStatus([@Column1])

Grabbing the HTTP status of your URL list will give you a list of results like this:

a list of URL links that may or may not be indexed at Google

#4 - Get Search Volume Data for Your Inbound Anchor Text

An interesting way to identify links that might be a little above the radar, penalty-potential wise is to look at the search volume for the inbound anchor text used in the link. I mean, if you’ve got a lot of massively overcooked, highly competitive anchors from PageRank 0 sites, you’ve got a problem.

If you’ve got an Adwords API key, then it’s a piece of cake to use the Adwords API Extension for Excel – simply take a copy of all anchor text in the data, copy it to a separate table, de-duplicate it and run this array formula:

=arrayGetAdWordStats(KW,"EXACT","GB","WEB")

Then, do a VLOOKUP back in your main table and you’ll have search volumes for every anchor text used in your inbound links.

#5 - Extract the Domain From the Linked to URL

In my link data I really like to know if there are any potential problems with the domain I’m getting links from. PageRank 0 links, with extremely competitive anchor text could spell trouble, or at least some less than savvy link purchases. We're spending a lot of our time lately cleaning up this sort of thing, and this method makes it a whole lot easier.

Check out this formula as a very simple way to extract the characters up to, but not including the first trailing slash in a URL (assumes there's a "http://" at the beginning of the URL):

=MID([@URL],8,FIND("/",[@URL],8)-8)

If some of your links are from homepages (which often they are), simply add this extension to display the full URL, should there be no trailing slash in the URL:

=IFERROR(MID([@URL],8,FIND("/",[@URL],8)-8),MID([@URL],8,LEN([@URL])))

#6 - Get PageRank for the Linking URL and Domain

Yes, you heard that right. The old school link auditor in me can’t shy away from the fact that while PageRank is pretty useless as an overall proxy to rankings, it will come in handy if you’re trying to get a sense of the overall quality of the backlinks of a website. Like I mentioned above, a lot of PageRank 0 links from cruddy sites, with highly competitive inbound anchor text might be something you should make yourself aware of.

Here’s how:

=GooglePageRank()

What Could You Build?

There are a few more tricks left that you should go and explore in SEO Tools. I also happen to know there’s an SEO Tools v3.0 coming very soon, and it will kick ass! Though I’m really grateful for Yahoo Site Explorer, I’m not going to miss it. It’s sort of like an Overture Keyword Tool situation. When that disappeared, there was outrage, now, silence.

Have fun rolling your own tools and, as always I'd love to hear how you're getting on! - follow SEOgadget on Google+

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Introducing Social Analytics in SEOmoz PRO

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 02:40 AM PST

Posted by Miranda.Rensch

Hi there, Mozzers! It's me, Miranda. It’s been a while since I’ve posted here, and I’ve missed you! Today, I have something super exciting to share with you: our newest addition to SEOmoz PRO, Social Analytics!!

zOMG, we have been working super hard on the new Social Analytics section; we’re excited for you to try it out and let us know what you think. This is the first step towards our bigger vision for offering social analytics and quantifying the impact of social efforts. In this first version, we support Facebook and Twitter, but we definitely plan to support additional social applications in future versions.

Let me take you on a quick tour!

Connect Accounts

You can connect your Facebook Page (any page a user can “Like”) or Twitter account, or both! You can currently connect one account of each type.

social analytics connect facebook or twitter account

You can also compare the growth of your network against a few competitors or peers.

compare accounts

Social Dashboard

On the Social Dashboard, you can see the size of your network for each account, a snapshot of the interactions that have occurred on that account (likes, shares, retweets, etc), and if you have Google Analytics connected, you can see traffic to your campaign’s domain from each social account.

Social Dashboard SEOmoz PRO

Monitor Your Network

You can see a historic view of how many followers / fans you gained each day and compare that to the followers / fans of your competitor / peer accounts.

See social network size over time.

You can also monitor the rate at which you gain or lose fans day after day compared to competitor or peer accounts. This helps you see if you or a competitor is gaining momentum in network growth. If you see a spike in your growth rate, it might mean that something you posted that day (or something posted about you) resulted in you gaining more followers than normal.

See network growth rate over time

You can also see which of your Twitter followers have tweeted about you and which have the most influence based on network size or Klout Score.

See top Twitter followers

Monitor Interactions

You can monitor key interaction metrics for each social account. For Facebook, see the number of fan posts, mentions, admin posts, post likes, and comments for a given time period. For Twitter, see retweets of your tweets, mentions of you, and replies to you. You can also see this data over time.

Monitor facebook interactions Monitor interactions over time.

You can take a look at the most liked and commented on Facebook posts posted by admins of your page.

Monitor Impact

You are able to see the number of visits to your campaign’s domain coming from Facebook or Twitter over time.

Monitor traffic from social applications

Of course, this is a very simplistic method of monitoring impact from social, since so much of the impact of social has to do with gradual brand exposure and trust-building. We’d love to provide more rich methods for monitoring this in the future (especially in terms of impact on search results), so please let us know your thoughts on what you’d like to see.

Reporting

Right now, you can export your social data to CSV. PDF reports will be coming soon!

Export social data to CSV

What’s Next?

This is only the first step in a long-term vision for rich, actionable social analytics. We want to eventually support additional social networks (Google+ and LinkedIn are at the top of the list), provide more insights on how engaging your content is across social platforms, show richer analysis of the impact of social efforts, and possibly suggest actions such as adding accounts you may be under-utilizing or identifying potential fans/friends/followers/contacts.

That concludes our tour of the new social feature. We’ll be doing a free webinar on December 1st at 10:30am PST where Casey and I will give a more in-depth tour of the tool -- you can register here. We would love to hear feedback on this new functionality, on features you’d most like to see next, and about how you use social applications and analytics tools in general. Happy social exploring!

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Watch Live: President Obama Pardons a Turkey

Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, Nov.23, 2011

Watch Live: President Obama Pardons a Turkey

Americans have been sending turkeys to the White House for the holidays since Ulysses S. Grant was President. But today, President Obama will spare a beautiful bird from the Thanksgiving dinner table - in keeping with modern tradition.

Watch the pardon ceremony at 10:30 a.m. EST on WhiteHouse.gov/Live, and read a blog post on the history of the turkey pardon.

Seth's Blog : The marketing of conspiracy theories

The marketing of conspiracy theories

A conspiracy theory is a complex, alternative explanation for the truth.

By definition, they're not true. Of course there are plenty of things that are the result of conspiracies. Call them conspiracy facts instead of theories. Countries, organizations and movies are often the result of people conspiring together, sometimes in secret. But the facts don't fascinate us, the theories do. (And while I have no doubt that there is widespread deception and a lack of transparency, I'm interested today in understanding why these theories spread and stick).

People don't embrace them because they're true, they embrace them because they are more satisfying, they show agency and intent, and they provide a level of solace by implying external causes to significant events.

At the heart of the marketing of a conspiracy theory is that it must be non-falsifiable.

A key tenet of science is that every useful and productive thesis and theory must be able to be proven wrong. For example, if you say, "I have ESP, but it only works if no one is testing or tracking my results," then of course it can't be disproven. If you say, "Columbus set off on his journey because a voice came to him in the middle of the night and told him what to do but he never wrote it down nor told anyone," then we must either take your word for it or move on. No room for science here.

Which is how they market conspiracy theories. Take a look at the many theories about 9/11 or the 12 men in Geneva who run the world or the Kennedy assassination or UFOs and what you'll see each time is that as soon as anything appears to disprove part of the theory, the theory changes. What is being sold is doubt, not proof. Doubt is something people often want to buy, particularly if it gives them comfort.

Marketers of conspiracies understand this, which is why they always lead with the doubt, always reinforce the doubt that we can't help but feel about just about everything. "Are you sure?" is almost always guaranteed to generate a 'no' as an answer.

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marți, 22 noiembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Chinese Manufacturing Contracts, Gauge Hits 32-Month Low; Soft-Landing Nonsense; Global Recession is Here
Showdown in Greece; EU Gives Deadline on Signatures; Samaras Won't Sign, Sends Letter Instead, Seeks Policy Changes
European Commission Staff Threatens Strike; Would Anyone Notice?
IMF Announces New "Precautionary and Liquidity Line"; Fed Discusses More Stimulus; Both Much Ado Over Nothing; Expect Continued Bull Market in Meaningless Headlines
Three Easy Steps to Getting Rich Quick in Bear Markets
UK Prime Minister "Our Plan to Cut Debt is Failing"; Plans to Cut Debt Fail Nearly Everywhere; One Success Story
Perfect Storm the Most Likely Scenario; Is Europe Set to Declare a Chapter 11 in Early 2012?
Hungary seeks Aid from EU, IMF; Austrian Banks Told to Limit Lending to the East; No Government in Belgium Since June 2010, Negotiator Quits

Chinese Manufacturing Contracts, Gauge Hits 32-Month Low; Soft-Landing Nonsense; Global Recession is Here

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 08:03 PM PST

The global recession has begun. Europe is undeniably in recession, the US is on the way, and Chinese manufacturing just entered contraction.

MarketWatch reports China manufacturing gauge shows contraction

HSBC's preliminary China manufacturing survey fell to a 32-month low in November, well below analysts' forecasts, with the reading signaling the sector is now contracting.

The Purchasing Managers Index printed at 48.0 on a 100 point scale, reversing from a mildly expansionary reading of 51.0 in October, HSBC reported Wednesday.

Consensus forecasts for had called for a 50.1 result, just above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction, according to CNBC.

"As inflation is likely to decelerate at a faster-than-expected pace, it will leave more room for Beijing to step up selective easing measures, which should gradually filter through to keep China on track for a soft landing," HSBC economist Hongbin Qu said in comments accompanying the flash PMI release.

Soft-Landing Nonsense

Everyone is looking for the Fed, the ECB, and the Chinese Central Bank to steer the global economy to the proverbial "soft-landing".

Yet the fact remains, trillions of dollars have been spent already, hoping to forestall another recession. Every action has added to debt in the US, UK, Japan, and Europe, and created a huge inflationary construction boom in China.

Crude is still hugging $100 a barrel. Food prices are up. Is the Fed going to launch another round of QE into that? I doubt it. I doubt China does either, especially with a regime change coming up.

Is Congress going to approve stimulus changes that would help Obama get re-elected? The idea is laughable.

Crash Landing

Should central banks step in, watch for gold, crude, and oil prices to rise, and little else to happen. Central banks and world governments have applied so much totally useless Keynesian and Monetarist stimulus to prevent the inevitable, there may be no landing at all (soft or hard), until a global crash.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Showdown in Greece; EU Gives Deadline on Signatures; Samaras Won't Sign, Sends Letter Instead, Seeks Policy Changes

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 06:02 PM PST

European officials have had enough of the technocrat leadership in Greece. They have given a week for Antonis Samaras, the leader of New Democracy party, and member of the coalition to sign a document saying he will support the European Union debt plan.

He says he will support the plan (with modifications). The EU wants a signature now, with no changes.

Does a Signature Even Matter?

Other than pigheadedness on behalf of the EU, does a signature even matter? Why? The next government can easily vote to undo whatever this government does. Will Samaras remain in power? Is his signature binding on the next parliament (or even this one)?

I will have more questions in a moment but first consider a couple of articles.

EU Gives Deadline on Signatures

Ekathimerini reports EU sets deadline for signatures

European officials insisted on Tuesday that party leaders in Greece's coalition government must provide written guarantees expressing their commitment to a new European Union debt plan before a Eurogroup summit next Tuesday to unlock crucial rescue funding. But center-right New Democracy appeared unmoved and the right-wing Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) -- the third party in the coalition -- appeared to harden its stance against the country's creditors.

Sources in Brussels told Kathimerini that the EU decided to send Athens the ultimatum after talks between European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and New Democracy's vice president Stavros Dimas, who is also foreign minister, failed to secure a shift in the stance of ND president Antonis Samaras, who has refused to offer written guarantees to Brussels, saying his word should be enough.

Eurogroup chief Jean-Claude Juncker, who received Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos in Strasbourg, said he hoped party leaders would fulfill EU demands by Tuesday. "Would there be no cross-party agreement, that disbursement of course could not take place," Juncker said, referring to an 8-billion-euro loan without which Greece faces default next month.

There was pressure from elsewhere too. Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said his country would bar further aid unless Samaras changes his tune. "We want to see a signature from Mr Samaras… otherwise, as far as I am concerned, they will get no money. Absolutely not." But ND spokesman Yiannis Michelakis indicated that ND's leader was unmoved. "I have nothing to add on the issue of the signature that is being asked of Samaras," he said.

Meanwhile the leader of LAOS, Giorgos Karatzaferis, shifted from his earlier suggestion that he would do "everything necessary" to secure crucial loans, saying that instead of signing a letter, he would write an article outlining his commitments in his party's newspaper.

Samaras Won't Sign, Sends Letter Instead

Athens News reports Samaras won't sign, EPP letter published

As the pressure mounts on the major Greek party leaders to provide written support for the October 26/27 eurozone deal, New Democracy (ND) president Antonis Samaras has reiterated his stance that he will not sign such a statement.

ND party spokesman Yiannis Mihelakis stressed on Tuesday that he has nothing further to add on the issue of Samaras' signature over commitments requested by the EC-ECB-IMF 'troika'. Mihelakis added that Samaras has made specific statements saying he backs the October 26 EU summit agreement, adding that no request has been made on behalf of the European Union as regards the ND leader's signature.

In the letter, Samaras underlines the fact that he supports Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and the targets of fiscal adjustment but notes that "certain policies have to be modified".

Policy Changes?

Who blinks first? Samaras or the EU?

While pondering that question, consider this logic from my friend Bran who every day sends me links like those above.

Bran writes ...

Imagine a US bill launched by the Democrats affecting international shipping. Suppose the bill gets a mixed vote and passes.

Along come the Chinese who are part beneficiaries of the bill and they then insist not just the President sign it, but also demand the head of the Republican party to do so, or they will not abide by their reciprocally enacted legislation.

Just imagine that setup and tell me how Speaker of the House John Boehner or Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell might react.

Even if the Congressional leaders did sign such a document, would it be binding on the next Congress?

In the case of Greece, elections will be held early next year (supposedly). With all these demands and all this political posturing, one has to wonder.

I for one hope Samaras holds firm and does not sign. The quicker the Eurozone blows up, the better it will be for everyone.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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European Commission Staff Threatens Strike; Would Anyone Notice?

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 04:19 PM PST

The Eu Observer reports EU staff to go on strike

EU staff unions have re-iterated their threat to go on strike after negotiations with the European Commission failed to produce an agreement on a new package of pay and pension changes.

"If Sefcovic does not reopen the negotiations, we will go on strike," said Felix Geradon, secretary-general of the Union Syndicale, the biggest of the eleven within the institutions.

Earlier this month, the unions gave the commission a strike notice, giving warning that they are prepared to down tools for one day any time between 23 November and 17 December, a move that would practically shut down the European Commission.

Would Anyone Notice?

The key to answering that question is found in the preceding paragraph: the strike "would practically shut down the European Commission".

If true, people might notice a stunning improvement in productivity, fewer stupid rules as described in EU Bans Claim "Drinking Water Can Prevent Dehydration" Expect More Such Stupidity if European Nanny-Zone Fiscal Union Forms, and a general overall improvement in economic confidence.

Unfortunately, such a productivity-improving strike would likely not last long enough for people to notice the EC is (at best) totally useless, and at worst economically damaging in a major way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

IMF Announces New "Precautionary and Liquidity Line"; Fed Discusses More Stimulus; Both Much Ado Over Nothing; Expect Continued Bull Market in Meaningless Headlines

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 11:28 AM PST

The market spurted higher mid-morning over new and improved credit lines by the IMF, and another never-ending discussion by the Fed about increasing liquidity.

Bloomberg reports IMF Revamps Credit Lines to Lure Nations

The Washington-based IMF today said the new instrument, the Precautionary and Liquidity Line, can be tapped by countries with strong economies currently facing short-term liquidity needs. Countries with potential needs can also apply, as they did in the past under the Precautionary Credit Line that the new instrument replaces.

"The reform enhances the Fund's ability to provide financing for crisis prevention and resolution," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in an e-mailed statement. "This is another step toward creating an effective global financial safety net to deal with increased global interconnectedness."

The changes, which enable countries that pre-qualify to request IMF funds without having to make as many policy changes as with traditional loans, come as Europe's crisis threatens to spread to Spain and France. The IMF is co-financing bailouts in Greece, Portugal and Ireland and is preparing to send a team to Italy for an unprecedented audit of the country's efforts to cut its debt.

The Standard and Poor's 500 Index pared losses after the report.

Not Big News

Via email, Bank of America / Merrill Lynch says "This is Not Big News"

The IMF has announced some easier access to their limited supply of funds (as below). Despite the eye catching headlines, BofAML do not think that this is particularly new news, nor that financially impactful, unfortunately except possibly for smaller countries and even that is unclear.
Thanos (ex-IMF): Thinks the IMF's PLL is in no way a game changer by itself. The PLL could be used in east Europe. It could also be used in Italy and Spain, but more for its conditionality than for its limited firepower compared to funding needs. And in any case, an SBA or even an EFF would be better for Italy and Spain, as such arrangements have more conditions linked to reforms.
Laurence Boone (Head of Euro Econ): Thinks this does not necessarily mean more money. It means easier access to IMF money. In 2008/09 euro national central banks lent about $75bn to the IMF, a repeat of this lending is something they may or may not be able to repeat this time.
Ardash (BofAML APAC): Points out the PLL was flagged during the G20 summit and mentioned in its communique - officials have already suggested it would be more appropriate for financing needs of smaller countries, rather than the big fish (Italy and Spain).. even 10x quota is simply not enough, let alone judging whether they are committed to "sound policies".

Expect Continued Bull Market in Meaningless Headlines

Note the market continues to move on meaningless headlines. Also note the duration of each move higher keeps getting shorter. That means we can expect a huge bull market in meaningless headlines as EU officials, Eurozone officials, and the IMF keep searching for things to say to placate the markets.

"Lure" the Perfect Word

By the way, Bloomberg's headline title is near-perfect. The phrase "lure nations" is appropriate. "To their economic death" needs to be added.

This is what I think of the IMF as noted in To Ireland With Love.

IMF's Trojan Horse Gift to Ireland

I believe we have all heard the story and know how it ends.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Three Easy Steps to Getting Rich Quick in Bear Markets

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 09:11 AM PST

Here is a humorous chart from a nice E-Wave site called Pretzel Logic's Charts and Analysis.

Nasdaq 100 Index

click on chart for sharper image

The above chart is from SPX 1000 Here We Come (Right Back Where We Started From) in which Pretzel writes ...

The NDX just completed a major top formation. On Thursday, the support level of this top was broken, and on Friday, the NDX spent all day unable to rally back above it. The chart also has some helpful hints on how to "get rich quick" in a bear market -- assuming you have enough capital to move the market, that is.

Those of you who are into technical analysis in general, and E-Wave in particular, may wish to check out Pretzel. He has many e-wave charts in the above link and lays out the technical case for a big downdraft quite nicely, complete with an alternate bullish possibility.

Three Easy Steps to Getting Rich Quick

Those of you not into technical analysis but with a proven ability to move the markets, please note these three "easy" steps toward guaranteed profits.

Step 1: Generate quick run up off the lows, using shorts as fuel.
Step 2: Distribute as much of your overvalued inventory as possible to retail investors. Schedule press release "New Bull Market"
Step 3: Let the market go again. Buy back your old inventory at much lower prices. Rinse and repeat.

More seriously, on a fundamental and technical basis, this is not a market to be messing with unless you know how to hedge. Moreover, if you don't know how to hedge, this is not the time to learn how.

Odds of a big market breakdown are both high and rising.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

UK Prime Minister "Our Plan to Cut Debt is Failing"; Plans to Cut Debt Fail Nearly Everywhere; One Success Story

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 08:11 AM PST

Plans to cut debt have failed nearly everywhere I look.

Greece is obvious enough and a government collapsed over it.
Spain is obvious enough and a government collapsed over it.
Italy is obvious enough and a government collapsed over it.
Portugal is obvious enough and a government collapsed over it.
US is obvious enough and the failure of the super-committee to come to agreement is proof enough

In the UK, news is just as "reassuring" as Prime Minister David Cameron says "Our Plan to Cut Debt is Failing"

David Cameron and his senior ministers have admitted for the first time that there is a danger they will not be able to tackle borrowing on time.

The Prime Minister on Monday conceded that tackling Britain's debts was "proving harder than anyone envisaged", raising the prospect that the Coalition would be unable to close the deficit by 2014-15.

That would rule out any significant tax cuts before the next election. It also raises questions about the Coalition's fundamental purpose.

Departing from the deficit-reduction timetable could raise fears that Britain will face rising borrowing costs as bond markets take fright.

Debt is "a drag on growth", Mr Cameron told business leaders. "We are well behind where we need to be," he said.

Kenneth Clarke, the Justice Secretary, has warned that the global economy is "in a devil of a mess", which is "bound to have an effect" on the Coalition's plans to clear most of the deficit before the next election.

The candid remarks pave the way for George Osborne, the Chancellor, to admit next week that his target will be missed and the structural deficit will not be erased until at least 2015-16.

The odds Cameron will succeed by 2016 are the same as the odds he would succeed by 2014. Zero.

At least the UK admits failure. In the US we have a situation best described as Mission Accomplished: Nothing; Kerry Says No Problem "Lawmakers Have a Year"; Boehner's, Pelosi's "Moral Obligations" Fly Out the Window

Mission a Brilliant Success, Achieves 100% of Its Goals

The Super Committee accomplished nothing, as expected, and more importantly, as designed. Neither political party really wanted to do anything about the deficit (because it would cost them votes). By D.C. standards this mission was a "brilliant success". It achieved its purpose, which was to do nothing. Both parties got the smoke-and-mirrors delay they wanted, while pointing fingers at the other side.

One Success Story

Those looking for a success story can find it in Iceland. It truly is different in Iceland because Icelandic citizens were actually give a chance to vote on what to do, and vote they did against the wishes of parliament, to tell the IMF and EU to go to hell (twice I need to add, because incompetent politicians were hell-bent on stopping default following the first vote).

Iceland defaulted. The result has been spectacular. Iceland is well on its way to recovery.

Meanwhile, PIIGS flounder around like fish out of water, shoved bales of austerity and ordered by outsiders and unelected officials to breathe.

The current situation is hopeless. Politicians either need to accept that fact, or put things to a vote like Iceland did.

Serious restructuring and a breakup of the Eurozone is the only solution.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Perfect Storm the Most Likely Scenario; Is Europe Set to Declare a Chapter 11 in Early 2012?

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 02:18 AM PST

Panic is spreading says Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank. Steen eyes the perfect storm including a potential "Chapter 11" call for European banks.

Via Email

This morning there is too much bad news.

US Super Committee failed to find the 1.2 trillion US Dollar needed to stop the automatic spending cuts being initiated from 2012, but the more acute problem being the expiration of the payroll tax and the emergency benefits by year-end 2011. It now looks less likely a deal can be struck as Congress now have even less incentive to find common ground ahead of next year US election.

The immediate impact could be a full one percent slower growth in the US – Goldman Sachs provided this excellent graph detailing the potential negative impact: The number could be -2.0% to -0.5% in first two quarter of 2012 – again underlining our believe in an economic perfect storm as the most likely scenario:

click on chart for sharper image

The debt crisis is taking a new negative turn – as seen in prior liquidity crisis' the EMG Europe bloc comes under attack and this morning there are two extreme worrisome news pieces out:

Hungary seeks Aid from EU, IMF: Hungary have submitted formal request to the EU and IMF for help. Hungary feels this is needed to secure risk-free growth for the economy – talks should be concluded in early 2012.

Austrian banks told to limit lending to the east: Basically, they need and want to protect their AAA and they seems to believe, rather naively, that the best way is to cut lending to the their EEC bloc lending. Again the credit-cake is getting smaller.

Finally, another core country Belgium may lose its caretaker PM – Belgium been without elected government since June 2010! – the political landscape in Europe getting slightly concerning:

Greece – Technocrat – non-elected Government – Opposition still refuses to sign EU letter.

Italy – Technocrat- non-elected

Spain – new majority government, but on the basis of big no to austerity from prior government, not exactly vote of confidence to fiscal restraint.

France- Election next year – Marine Le Pen could surprise in the polls, as the French election is two rounds. She is making heavy anti-EU noises and starting to raise her campaign

Belgium – Belgian chief government negotiator asks to quit.

Keep an eye on Belgium rates today – they have risen from 3.6% in early October to now close to the magic 5.00 which spells trouble, with capital T…

Conclusion

Market bounced of the 1180-00 target for now, but a test still looks like on the down-side as 2012 more and more looks like one big perfect storm both politically and economically. This is not the time to be brave. This week will see dramatic revisions to US growth based on Super Committee failure, and same for Europe as PMI will show lacking confidence. This is now full blown "confidence crisis" – there is increasingly a need for my call for "Chapter 11" for Europe.

Safe travels,

Steen Jakobsen | Chief Economist

Chapter 11 in early 2012?

On his blog, Steen asks Is Europe set to declare a Chapter 11 in early 2012?

Europe may need to pull a Chapter 11 – a US-style bankruptcy, which would permit a market shutdown and Euro Zone reorganization before reopening for business.

The EU desperately needs a break from market pressures in order to allow the political apparatus to really gather its forces and finally move Europe and its debt crisis ahead of the curve. Here we are just a couple of weeks after the feeble attempt to apply an EFSF plaster on the problem and we're already back to Square One: the EU debt crisis has reached the point at which none of the readily available tools or institutions are sufficient to match the magnitude of the crisis. This dictates the need for an out-of-the-box solution.

EU policy makers played the extend and pretend game for as long as they could - but now the writing is on the wall: popular outrage is on the rise and putting increasing pressure on the political process - as we are seeing increased demonstrations and grass-root activity taking over both the political agenda and the media. And markets are now balking as empty promises and now a real lack of funds are seeing bond yields beginning to spike out of control. The self-reinforcing cycle of downgrades and austerity and recession are taking us to the very brink of a full scale Crisis 2.0.

It's important to point out that politicians will only do something drastic in a true state of emergency, so one catalyst we've yet to see to prompt action is a serious drop in the stock market.

The extend-and-pretend policies that have continued through 16 EU Summits have only led us to a Catch-22 in which everything that is done with good intentions (or not) is to the detriment of something else.

So what form might a Chapter 11 for the Euro Zone take? It is increasingly likely that some kind of total "bank holiday" is enforced to put a stop to market pressures – and then to reinforce and relaunch a stricter EU Growth and Stability Pact as a price for cranking up the ECB printing presses to full speed.

Before accusing me of lunacy on my idea of a market holiday, it's important to point out that banking holidays are not without precedent. In 1933, President Roosevelt declared a bank holiday that ran for an entire week in March of 1933, during which he passed the Emergency Banking Act and the Federal Reserve moved to supply currency to banks.

After 9/11 we also had a "forced" bank holiday. The banking panic of 1907 saw massive illiquidity and bank closings as can be seen in this excellent link. The main point for 1907 however remains: The biggest and most solvent banks survived, the small ones failed – 73 banks failed but it created a rebirth which catapulted the stock market higher.

Germany and Northern Europe understand that printing money at the ECB will not solve anything, as it would only throw more debt on an already back-breaking load. But if this bloc countries wants to buy time to implement stronger constitutional changes, the most path is a quid-pro-quo solution in which Germany gets a stronger Growth and Stability Pact implemented, not only into EU law, but also ratified as part of a new standard for restrictive fiscal policies with built-in debt breaks for all individual countries. Germany gets it "discipline leads to growth" for the long term, while the Keynesians get their "liquidity fix" from the ECB.

In short, the main issues are the following (in no particular order of prioritization):

Time is up – the market needs solutions, not plans for plans. The timeline for Political Europe is way too slow for market comfort.

Interbank funding is starting to freeze over. Every day sees risk factors pointing higher and a systemic liquidity crisis could develop at any time.

Financing gap. EFSF has 440 EUR 440 billion (though it has never been funded). Some estimate that Italy and Spain need EUR 400-500 billion per year to refinance and recapitalize its banks – per year! Talk about mismatch of supply and demand.

Lack of constitutional frame-work to establish or enact changes.

Democratic and constitutional rights are close to being violated, if not in the letter of the law, then certainly in the eyes of the voters.

As we head into 2012, I am increasingly convinced that we have an almost perfect economic and political storm brewing on the horizon.

Germany Will Not Go Along

The obvious flaw in the idea of a Europe-wide bank holiday is Germany.

The German supreme court has ruled there must be a voter referendum for these kinds of changes. Would Merkel risk putting the German Supreme court to that test? I highly doubt it.

Individual countries, notably Greece, are another matter as I have mentioned a couple of times recently. For further discussion, please see...

Greece is at the breaking point now if they do not get the next tranche of money, and it still is not clear they will get it. If Greece left would Portugal be far behind? It's hard to say for sure.

Might Italy decide on a bank holiday? Yes, that is possible too, just not as likely, at least right now. It may be a different matter after the next election.

The ideal solution would be for Germany to leave. Might that involve a Eurozone-wide bank holiday? Certainly, just not yet.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Hungary seeks Aid from EU, IMF; Austrian Banks Told to Limit Lending to the East; No Government in Belgium Since June 2010, Negotiator Quits

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 01:22 AM PST

Credit stress continues in Europe with a spotlight on several countries, none of the typical culprits.

Hungary Seeks Aid From EU, IMF

The Wall Street Journal reports Hungary Seeks Aid From EU, IMF

The European Commission said Monday that it has received a formal request from Hungary to receive financial assistance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

"The Commission will examine the authorities' request in close consultation with EU member states and the IMF," the commission, which has antitrust powers in the EU, said in a statement.

In a separate statement, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde also said it has "received a request from the Hungarian authorities for possible financial assistance."

The ministry said it expects to start the negotiations before Christmas, with a new agreement to be concluded in the initial months of 2012. It didn't disclose details on the nature of the requested IMF support. The government would seek a deal with the IMF on an insurance contract to reassure investors and to allow Hungary to raise the capital it needs, it said.

No Government in Belgium Since June 2010, Negotiator Quits

Belgium is still without a government and has been since June 2010. Every time there has been a hint of a breakthrough, the setup collapses. Fed up with lack of progress, the Belgian chief government negotiator asks to quit

BRUSSELS: The lead negotiator in Belgium's drawn-out government formation tendered his resignation on Monday after talks for a 2012 budget ground to a halt, a move which threatened to derail the country's near 18-month search for a new administration.

Elio Di Rupo, leader of the French-speaking Socialists, had attempted to form a government based on a six-party coalition of Dutch and French-speaking Socialists, Liberals and Christian Democrats but there was little common ground on how to make the budget cuts mandated by the European Union.

Parties in the debt-heavy country had sought to save 11.3 billion euros and keep the country's deficit below 2.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), in line with EU rules, but could not agree how to divide the deficit reduction between new taxes and savings.

When the budget talks, which are essential to the formation of a new government, made no progress on Monday, Di Rupo handed in his resignation to the country's monarch, King Albert II.

Di Rupo handed in his resignation once before, in July, when talks over the electoral boundaries collapsed. At that stage the palace did not accept his resignation and talks resumed shortly after.

Belgium has come under market pressure over its lack of a new government and sovereign debt nearly as big as its GDP, with its cost of borrowing increasing steadily. Spreads between Belgian 10-year bonds and benchmark German Bunds rose sharply in November, going above 300 basis points, up from 103 basis points at the start of 2011.

Belgium's interim government, headed by Yves Leterme, is preparing an emergency budget, based on the 2011 budget.

Austrian Banks to Limit Lending to East

The Financial Times reports Austrian Banks Told to Limit Lending to East

Austrian bank supervisors have instructed the country's banks to limit future lending in their east European subsidiaries, a further sign of the potential knock-on effects of the eurozone crisis for economies around the world.

The restrictions come as Austrian officials seek to defend the country's AAA credit rating, amid concerns that the government might have to bail out its banks because of losses in central and eastern Europe, where they are the biggest lenders, and their exposure to Italy.

The moves by Austria, which appear to be unilateral, show how even the eurozone's strongest economies are feeling the pressure of the sovereign debt crisis.

The Austrian central bank said in a statement that Erste Group, Raiffeisen Bank International and Bank Austria, owned by UniCredit of Italy, would be prevented from loaning significantly more in CEE countries than what they raise in local deposits. Subsidiaries that are "particularly exposed" must ensure the ratio of new loans to local refinancing is not more than 110 per cent.

The three banks' CEE exposure exceeds Austrian GDP, raising concerns that the government would be unable to bail them out if their loan portfolios turned sour. The announcement came just as the spreads of Austrian bond yields over German Bunds rose to record highs and was also designed to calm market jitters, a central bank official said.

A quick check of Belgium 10-year government bonds shows the yield has risen to 4.87% vs. 1.91% for Germany.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

miercuri, 23 noiembrie 2011

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