Central Perk

sâmbătă, 14 ianuarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Romney's Lead in South Carolina Shrinks to 4+ Percentage Points; Ron Paul in Surge
Obama Wants to "Streamline" Government, Adding a New Cabinet-Level Position in the Process; I have a Better Idea
Merkel Wants Higher Taxes, Deeper Cuts, Faster Reforms; S&P Says Eurozone Policies Fall Short , France at Risk of Further Downgrades

Romney's Lead in South Carolina Shrinks to 4+ Percentage Points; Ron Paul in Surge

Posted: 14 Jan 2012 05:50 PM PST

Check out the trends in the latest South Carolina Republican Primary Polls as noted on Real Clear Politics.

click on chart for sharper image

Gingrich has collapsed, and although Mitt Romney and Santorum were the initial beneficiaries, only Ron Paul is on a sustained surge.

If Perry and Huntsman dropped out and endorsed Paul (I think Huntsman will do that eventually, but probably not until after South Carolina primary) Ron Paul could conceivably carry the state.

Regardless, trends for Ron Paul are extremely favorable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Obama Wants to "Streamline" Government, Adding a New Cabinet-Level Position in the Process; I have a Better Idea

Posted: 14 Jan 2012 02:38 PM PST

Hoping to seize the deficit reduction initiative from Republicans (it does not take much because Republicans have no proposals on the plate) President Obama is out to prove he is a genuine deficit fighter. With much fanfare Obama launched his idea to streamline government. The proposal requires Congressional approval.

Laughably, out of an enormous annual budget of $3.7 trillion, the president's proposal, assuming it worked (and that is not a safe assumption), would save a mere $300 million a year. To top it off the president wants to create a new cabinet-level position out of the process.

Is this the best anyone can do?

Republicans are against the idea. If it was a Republican president asking to do the same thing, it's safe to point out that Democrats would be against the idea.

The New York Times reports Obama Bid to Cut the Government Tests Congress

Mr. Obama called on lawmakers to grant him broad new powers to propose mergers of agencies, which Congress would then have to approve or reject in an up-or-down vote. If granted the authority, he said, he would begin pruning by folding the Small Business Administration and five other trade and business agencies into a single agency that would replace the Commerce Department.

The White House estimated that the consolidation would save $3 billion over 10 years and result in reductions of 1,000 to 2,000 jobs. The savings is a mere rounding error in the $3.7 trillion annual budget, but the numbers may be less important than the message that Mr. Obama wants to cut wasteful spending.

It is not clear whether Congress, where much of Mr. Obama's legislative agenda has languished, will go along with this initiative. Republicans were immediately skeptical, suggesting that the White House was more interested in honing its re-election message than in reducing the size of government.

Even Democratic leaders expressed misgivings about folding the Office of the United States Trade Representative, a stand-alone agency with just 227 employees, into a large bureaucracy, saying it could harm American trade policy.

"Making it just another corner of a new bureaucratic behemoth would hurt American exports and hinder American job creation," said Senator Max Baucus, the Montana Democrat who is chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, in a statement with Representative Dave Camp, the Republican chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.

The White House has been working on this plan since the president announced his streamlining goals last January. He recycled a colorful example of duplication from his State of the Union address: the Interior Department has jurisdiction over salmon in freshwater, while Commerce handles them in saltwater.

Under the terms of the reorganization, five agencies — the Small Business Administration, the United States Trade Representative, the Export-Import Bank, the Overseas Private Investment Corporation and the Trade and Development Agency, plus the business and trade functions of the Commerce Department — would be consolidated into a single agency focused on helping the private sector.

Mr. Obama said he would elevate the director of the Small Business Administration, now Karen Mills, to his cabinet. The United States trade representative would retain cabinet rank, the White House said.

Streamlining Perspective

The president's proposal does not eliminate anything. Instead it merges small bureaucracies into even bigger bureaucracies much like banks evolved into what should be known as "too big to succeed". Moreover, Obama's proposal creates a new cabinet-level position in the process.

I am confident the president's plan will cost money in spite of what the president says. My rationale is simple: you don't add cabinet-level positions without adding costs. And those costs are sure to escalate over time no matter how well-intentioned initially.

I have a better idea, and it comes straight from the lead-in image to the New York Time's article.

Please take a look at that chart.

I count 17 green dots, 7 red dots, and 32 blue dots in a bureaucratic tangle of interconnected responsibilities. President Obama wants to untangle some of those lines making them more efficient.

Pay specific attention to the caption.

A Business Looking for Government Resources Starts Here

I have a simple question: Why should any business be seeking government (taxpayer) resources?

Instead of merging bloated bureaucracies into even bigger bloated bureaucracies, I propose elimination of 17 green bureaucracies, 7 red bureaucracies, and 32 blue bureaucracies.

Whereas Obama's plan will do next-to-nothing, my plan would save billions of dollars a year. Don't look for Democrats or Republicans (other than Ron Paul) to support it, because both parties pay lip service to actually reducing government.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Merkel Wants Higher Taxes, Deeper Cuts, Faster Reforms; S&P Says Eurozone Policies Fall Short , France at Risk of Further Downgrades

Posted: 14 Jan 2012 11:10 AM PST

In the wake of S&P debt downgrades, Merkel vows faster eurozone reforms.

European leaders promised on Saturday to speed up plans to strengthen spending rules and get a permanent bailout fund up and running as soon as possible, a day after U.S. agency S&P cut the ratings of several euro zone countries' creditworthiness.

It also warned that France, which suffered a downgrade to AA+ from the top-notch AAA, was at risk of further cuts if a recession further inflates its debt and budget deficit.

Leaders including Merkel have urged countries to tighten their belts with higher taxes and deep spending cuts to rein in massive budget deficits. But that has heightened market concern about their ability to grow their way back to health, pushing borrowing costs even higher for heavily indebted governments.

S&P said it was not working on the assumption of a euro zone break up, although it blamed its leaders for focusing too much on cutting debts and not sufficiently on competititveness.

"We think that the diagnosis of policymakers regarding the crisis is only partially recognising the origin of the crisis," said Kraemer, mentioning the focus on budget austerity.

"The proper diagnosis would have to give more weight to the rising imbalances in the euro zone in terms of the external funding positions, current account positions, much of it is based in diverging trends of competitiveness," he said.

The ratings decision hit some countries harder than others, with France, Austria, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia suffering single-notch downgrades, but Italy, Portugal, Spain and Cyprus falling two notches. Portugal's debt is now rated junk.

ECB policymaker Ewald Nowotny, an Austrian, said Italy in particular would now face problems given large refinancing needs this year in that country and its banks.

Asked in an interview broadcast by Austrian radio if Italy - now rated at the same BBB+ level as Kazakhstan - was "problem child number one," Nowotny agreed.

"In a certain sense, yes, because we know this year Italy has a very significant refinancing need. Italian banks also need refinancing," he said.

European leaders are set to meet at a summit on January 30 to discuss how to boost growth and jobs, and Merkel's words on Saturday suggest she will also be looking for faster progress on tighter common fiscal rules.

But now, policymakers at the meeting may have bigger fish to fry. The downgrades threaten the top rating of Europe's current bailout fund -- the European Financial Stability Facility -- as contributors France and Austria are no longer rated AAA.

A downgrade of the EFSF could increase its borrowing costs, reducing its ability to protect the currency bloc's weaker members. S&P said it would deliver its view on the impact to the EFSF from the sovereign downgrades "shortly."

S&P Says Eurozone Policies Fall Short , France at Risk of Further Downgrades

MarketWatch reports Euro-zone policies have fallen short

Standard & Poor's credit analysts said Saturday that Euro-zone policy makers have failed to address the "broadening and deepening" financial crisis the region now faces, leading the agency to issue long-term downgrades on nine countries, including Cyprus, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Austria, France, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia.

Perhaps most notably among the cuts late Friday, S&P downgraded France and Austria to AA+ from AAA, leaving only Germany, Netherlands, Finland and Luxembourg left as AAA-rated countries in the currency group. Portugal and Cyprus were downgraded to junk-bond status.

During a conference call Saturday morning, S&P credit analyst Moritz Kraemer said policymakers have yet to come up with solutions to the "systemic stresses" that plague Euro-zone nations during its debt crisis.

Among these problems, he said, are tightening credit conditions; weakening prospects for economic growth in the region; and continued disagreement among government officials over how the situation should be addressed.

Instead of concentrating on work rules and reforms, leaders in France, Germany, and Spain have called for higher taxes. Greece has had higher taxes imposed.

Even without tax hikes, the European recession would be deep and lengthy. Higher taxes will make the situation much worse.

Expect budget deficits to widen as unemployment soars and revenues collapse.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Weekly Address: Helping American Businesses Succeed

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, January 14, 2012

Weekly Address: Helping American Businesses Succeed

President Obama discusses steps he's taking to ensure that more goods and products stamped "Made in America" are sold in the United States and around the world.

Watch the video:

Weekly Wrap-Up

BusinessUSA: Friday morning, the President announced a new plan that will make it easier to do business in America. Currently a complex web of different federal departments provide access to resources and services for business. President Obama wants to cut through the bureaucratic mess and consolidate unnecessary departments. That's why he's asking Congress for the authority to merge six entities into a single department tasked with boosting American business and promoting competitiveness.

Creating Jobs: The President hosted an event with top business leaders to discuss what the administration can do to help bring jobs back to the United States. The “Insourcing American Jobs” forum is a part of the President Obama's larger plan to jumpstart the American economy and restore the economic security of the middle class.

Chief of Staff: The President announced that Chief of Staff Bill Daley will resign and return to Chicago. Replacing Daley will be Jack Lew – the current director of the Office of Management and Budget. The President praised Daley’s service, saying that no one had been forced to make more important decisions more quickly.

NBA Champs: On Monday, the President the Dallas Mavericks on their 2011 NBA championship. Headed into the NBA Finals, a lot of folks tried to write the Mavericks off, but Dallas won the series in six games, the President said, because they knew how to play smart: “[These] players got it done because they know how good teams win -- not just by jumping higher or running faster, but by finding the open man, working together, staying mentally tough, being supportive of each other, playing smarter.” While at the White House, the players also met with some wounded warriors – something they also take the time to do back in Dallas.

West Wing Week: This week, the President visited the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, welcomed this year's NBA Champs—the Dallas Mavericks—addressed the EPA, announced a new Chief of Staff, and introduced the White House's Insourcing Initiative. Check out the video.

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SEOptimise

A Collection of 47 Helpful Google Search Operator Queries

Posted: 13 Jan 2012 06:19 AM PST

To be honest, from my school days of using Google right up to today, the search engine giant has not once stopped impressing me. From its algorithmic updates for a better user experience to its cloud based computing services, Google has captured my life and sadly, probably my soul.

Today I will be sharing with you a collection of my favourite Google search operator queries, not only to help open your mind to the powers of Google being much more than a search engine, but also to show you that knowing some of these queries will help you become better in the art of SEO.

6 Starter Operator Search Operator Queries

These queries are particularly helpful because they’re generally quick and easy short cuts in narrowing your search results:

Query	What does it mean?
"best practice seo"	Searches for this exact phrase within “”
mobile -phone	Inclusion of – means searches for the word mobile but nothing following after phone
seo ~glossary	Brings up a glossary of information regarding that word
define:seo	Definition of that word or phrase
OR / \|	Returns search queries with one of the given terms
related:	Helps list web pages related to the URL

5 Basic Mathematics Search Operator Queries

Google search provides users with the ability to calculate simple maths without the need for your calculator:

Query	What does it mean?
+ / – / * //	Simple mathematics rules
% of	Percentage of a number
^ / **	Raise to the power of a number
square root of number	Find the square root of a number
reciprocal of (number)	Find the reciprocal value of a number

4 Advanced Mathematics Search Operator Queries

Surprisingly, Google does not stop at the most simple of mathematics and is there for the more complicated algorithmic-based equations:

Query	What does it mean?
sin, cos, tan	You’re able to use the trigonometric functions within a search
ln(number)	Utilises the natural logarithm of the number
log(number)	Utilises the base 10 logarithm
number!	Returns a factorial number

7 Converting Tool Search Operator Queries

Google offers users the ability in search to convert various units:

Query	An example, search in Google:
Currency converter	36 yuan to dollars
Data converter	Convert 81 Mb to Gb
Distance converter	68m to cm
Speed converter	38mph in kph
Temperature converter	18 Celsius in Fahrenheit
Time converter	89 days in minutes
Weight converter	8 stones in kg

7 Everyday Helpful Search Operator Queries

I find these operator queries particularly useful everyday, and maybe you will too:

Query	What does it mean?	An example, search in Google:
file:	Results show various file type extensions	file:linkbuilding.pdf
movie:	Results show movies in your local area	movie:oxford
weather:	Current weather forecast of that area	weather:oxford
time:	Local time in that country	time:china
sunrise:	Sunrise in that area	sunrise:oxford
map:	Map of that area	map:oxford
safesearch:	Search without any adult content	safesearch: sex education

2 Google News Search Operator Queries

These search operator queries are restricted to only Google News – very useful when you want to find news from a particular country or source-specific articles:

Query	What does it mean?	An example, search in Google news:
location:	Discover news posts from a location	Location:china
source:	Discover news posts from a source	Source:search engine land

4 Blog Search Operator Queries

When searching for particular blog-related links, these operator queries can help you search by author, post type and blog title:

Query	What does it mean?	An example, search in Google:
inpostauthor:	Search for this specific author	inpostauthor:”kevin gibbons”
inblogtitle:	Search for this specific blog title	inblogtitle:seoptimise
inpostitle:	Search for posts with these titles	inpostitle: on page optimisation
blogurl:	Search for blogs under a specific URL	blogurl:seoptimise.com

12 SEO Operator Queries

As an SEO practitioner, one of my most powerful search tools has to be Google itself. Just knowing these search operator queries exist is only quarter of the battle. But understanding how they work and best practices is where you can excel:

Query	What does it mean?
site:URL	Search only one site or domain
site:URL (image search)	Shows results for images on that website
allintitle:	All search results must appear in the title of the page
intitle:	The following keywords must appear in the title of the page
allintext:	The following must appear within the text page
intext:	The search term has to appear in the title of the page
allinurl:	The search term appears in the URL
allinanchor:	The following search terms must all appear in anchor text links with the page
inanchor:	All the following search terms all must appear in anchor text links with the page
cache:	Displays Google's cached version of a webpage
info:	Provides information on that specific page
link:	Finds the pages that link to that URL

Top Tip to Remember: In Google search you are not restricted to just one query per search. For example, you could have multiple queries in one search – e.g. site:seoptimise.com “web trends” -ppc

Thanks for reading this and please do share some of your favourite search operator queries!

*Image credit: niknack on Flickr.

30 SEO Resolutions for 2012

Posted: 13 Jan 2012 06:05 AM PST

Like most people, SEO practitioners reflect on the past year and attempt to improve their skills in the new year.

If you haven't made up your mind what exactly you want to change in the coming year, check out these suggestions for 30 SEO resolutions for 2012 that draw on modern industry best practices and growing trends.

Content Creation

I will create less shallow content and more quality “one of a kind” pieces of content.
I will create more content using multiple rich media such as images, audio, videos and the like.
I will write shorter, more readable postings instead of long, hard to read ones that nobody can follow.
I will create more content on site and waste less time on third party sites that require me to give away "User Generated Content".
I will provide less average sales copy and create more outstanding content for inbound marketing purposes.

Link Building

I will perform fewer tedious tasks such as contacting unwitting webmaster about link exchanges and provide more appealing incentives for people to link to me voluntarily.
I will go after more citations and fewer links to get traction on local search and Google Places instead of just the organic index that gets less exposure.
I will make sure my old inbound links are still there and also fix 404 errors on my own site.
I will link out more, not only to get noticed and more links back, but to reach out honestly to like-minded industry professionals – after all, we don't compete most of time.
I won't sneak in "free links" anymore on unsuspecting sites that would not voluntarily link to me.

Social Media

I will market less and contribute more in order to become a valuable contributor to social media.
I will get organised while social networking and not just waste time drifting from update to update on Facebook, Twitter or Google+.
I will follow fewer hypes and not just jump in on every social site that web celebrities want me to. I will go where the real value is.
I won't just share links all the time on social sites but instead use them in a balanced way, adding networking and conversation to my daily habits.
I will schedule times for my social media activity instead of just dropping in and getting distracted all the time during work hours.

Blogging

I will blog more regularly instead of just updating my social media profiles on third party sites.
I will guest blog on other blogs, both the already important ones and the not yet very well known.
I will focus my blog writing on the desired outcome – not just blog for the page views and social shares.
I will socialise with other bloggers both online and in real life to establish lasting relationships.
I won't check web analytics daily or more often and obsess about metrics that only make sense to check in the long term or every other week.

Tools

I will use fewer tools and more techniques. SEO and SMO are still about how you use them, not how many tools you use.
I will use the tools I prefer more in-depth instead of just scratching the surface of the features.
I will take more time for social media analytics and monitoring and find out what real humans say about me, my contributions and why.
I will not trust tools with everything and make sure to cross check data and compare with other outcomes.
I will recommend only the tools I truly use, not the ones I'm an affiliate of.

SEO

I will perform more SEO tests and publish the results to the benefit of the SEO community, no matter how vague the outcomes are.
I will provide more advice to educate the clients and their teams and make them more self-sufficient.
I will share my techniques, tools and case studies, not just to show off but to get recognition from the SEO community.
I will rant and complain less about Google, other SEOs and bloggers and instead keep on improving my own arsenal.
I will build a recognisable brand instead of just relying on generic rankings on Google.

These resolutions are written in the first person to make it easier for you to identify with them and to apply them yourself. They are not necessarily my personal resolutions.

On a side note: this is my last post on SEOptimise after more than four years. I hope you liked my posts. If you did, you can keep on reading my own blog over at SEO 2.0.

The SEOptimise team will take care of this blog completely from now on, so there won’t be any shortage of posts.

* Creative Common image by Aftab Uzzaman.

Seth's Blog : Declaring victory

Declaring victory

Whenever you start a project, you should have a plan for finishing it.

One outcome is to declare victory, to find that moment when you have satisfied your objectives and reached a goal.

The other outcome, which feels like a downer but is almost as good, is to declare failure, to realize that you've run out of useful string and it's time to move on. I think the intentional act of declaring becomes an essential moment of learning, a spot in time where you consider inputs and outputs and adjust your strategy for next time.

If you are unable to declare, then you're going to slog, and instead of starting new projects based on what you've learned, you'll merely end up trapped. I'm not suggesting that you flit. A project might last a decade or a generation, but if it is to be a project, it must have an end.

One of the challenges of an open-ended war or the Occupy movement is that they are projects where failure or victory wasn't understood at the beginning. While you may be tempted to be situational about this, to know it when you see it, to decide as you go, it's far more powerful and effective to define victory or failure in advance.

Declare one or the other, but declare.