Central Perk

luni, 17 septembrie 2012

The Role of APIs in the Future of Search

Posted: 16 Sep 2012 07:53 PM PDT

People talk a lot about APIs in the SEO industry (me especially) - the tools you can build with them, the competitive analysis data you can access, the reports you can automate. However, we tend not to discuss the wider picture, the thousands of APIs out there for other things, and, most importantly, the profound effect that APIs are going to have on the web, and thus the SEO industry, in the coming decade.

I believe that over the next 10 years there will be a huge decline in the number of users visiting websites, and that APIs (and structured data) are going to play a pivotal role in that shift.

To understand why I think this, lets take a look at the evolution of the web over the last 20 years.

(Note - I'm not going to explain APIs in this post - but you only need a broad understanding of them to get my point.)

History of How the Web Looks

The (public) web has been around for a little over 20 years, and in that time it has changed a lot. The first website, built by Tim Berners-Lee, looked like this:

(see it here)

With black and white text and no images, it was a pretty static experience, but was the birth of something amazing. Over the next 5 years, although the web grew and moved forward, it didn't see any drastic changes. Over the next 10 years the web got more colourful, with images appearing and layout being improved:

(Image courtesy of archive.org)

However, it was still a pretty static experience, and a long way from the web we know today, which looks more like:

Good old Bear Grylls. His site (which he updated this week!) shows off animation, high-res imagery and video, is interactive, has embedded social media, and is representative of the dynamic web we know and love today.

Obviously, this was a crude history of the web, but my point here is that in 20 years the web has accelerated from something akin a simple set of interlinked text pages to an interactive multimedia system. Let's tie this together with how the web is consumed and searched.

History of How the Web is Consumed

We've seen the web has become a far richer experience to interact with in the last 20 years. We can see that it has also undergone drastic changes in the way that we consume it. In the beginning, it was almost universally accessed via desktop machines:

Some readers won't even remember the days of having to turn on the external modem, dial up to connect and wait whilst the modem sung its song as it connected for a while. Using the web back then was something you made a slot of time for - you'd decide you need to check your email, and you'd head off and maybe spend 30 minutes or an hour using the painfully slow connection, before disconnecting and turning off the modem.

That slowly changed, and by the early 2000s you were quite possibly looking at the internet on a laptop:

(Image: Wikimedia Commons)

Your laptop maybe had a built in modem giving you 'mobile internet' you could use by a phone line, but we were starting to see 'broadband' connections and the advent of wifi. This was the beginning of always being connected for some people, but still the internet wasn't truly mobile, and there certainly wasn't widespread availability.

Nowadays, the majority of readers here will be accessing the web on their mobile:

There is prolific availability of wifi, most of us have 3G internet built into our phones, and using the internet is completely without thought; on the occasion that I'm not connected I'll inevitably try to do something on my phone before remembering "Yep, that also requires internet."

We have moved from interacting with the web via infrequent and prolonged interactions of minutes or hours to many short interactions of only a few seconds. In 2002, the average internet user used the web for 46 minutes a day, but in 2012 that has gone up to 4 hours a day. We're using the web for more time, more frequently, and in shorter bursts. Using the web has moved from being a task in and of itself and has become ubiquitous tool that we don't even notice.

History of How the Web is Searched

Finally, let me briefly discuss the way the web has been searched over the last 10-15 years. Very broadly speaking the general process, which has been changing in the last 2-3 years, has been searching in a generic fashion to searching in a specific fashion. Crudely this could be thought of as 'searching to find the place where you can search for the answer'.

You traditionally have started with the '10 blue links' result, which has taken you to a place where you could often refine your search in a context specific fashion. What do I mean by context specific? I mean that this specific search allows you to specify attributes unique to the type of thing you are searching for.

For example, in the image above, the search page on Amazon allows me to specify attributes such as author, ISBN and others which are specific to the context: book. Whereas the search box on Google / Bing is a single text entry box to cover all types of search for all types of results.

A Shift in How the web is Searched

However, we have been seeing a shift in this generic -> specific model. Google has started to detect the context of your search from keywords, and then provide additional context specific inputs to refine your search. The classic example is the hotel search:

Now, beyond the general text field, Google allows me to enter a Check-In and Check-Out (attributes, unique to the context: hotel) date to refine my search, and see real-time prices from a variety of vendors. What is notable is that these prices I'm seeing from sites such as ebookers.com are right here in the search results - I'm not visiting their site to see them. I'm not seeing any of their marketing bumpf, any of their special offers or deals, I'm just seeing their price.

Google has also began customising the display of the results based on context, with various examples from maps to weather:

Rather than the 10 blue links of days gone by, we are increasingly seeing the a context specific SERP with a customised display. With emerging search technologies such as Siri, this is often the norm rather than the exception:

With Siri, there never was 10 blue links, but only ever context specific results, each presented in a fashion appropriate to that context.

Siri's weather results above are provided by Yahoo!, but again the user never visits the Yahoo! Weather site. Likewise, the results about the distance to the sun are from Wolfram Alpha, but the user never visits their website. The results are being server via APIs, allowing Siri to leverage Yahoo! and Wolfram Alpha's services directly.

Decline of the Web

If we look over this history of the web we can see that the web has become progressively more dynamic, progressively more interactive, and richer and richer. Along the way internet use has become increasingly mobile, increasingly ubiquitous, used increasingly often and in shorter and shorter interactions.

You'll notice above that I distiguish between 'the web' and 'internet use' - not all internet use is via web pages. The internet existed for many years before the web was invented, where email and bulletin boards reigned. We can see above that more and more often APIs are serving people's search requests in place of the web.

Beyond search, wildfire adoption of Apps in the last few years has seen another avenue which has replaced people web use with something else; people are Facebooking and Tweeting, doing internet banking, finding routes, sharing photos and more all directly via apps instead of via the web. Masses of these apps are using publicly available APIs, with others using private APIs.

If we extrapolate from the changes to the way we consume the web, the shift in the way search results are being delivered, the uptake of apps I can't see how there is any conclusion other than the web will continue to give way to these other technologies.

The technological changes that push this are going to keep on coming:

Google Glass

Nokia Lumia - CityLens

Amazon Flow App

A Final Thought

Will the web die? I don't imagine so, and certainly not any time soon. However, it is going to be ever more superceded, and progressively relegated to be where your marketing lives, and less where your customers interact with you.

The majority of the services that will replace the web will be connecting via APIs, whether they are public or private. Having a private API, with an App and other ways to access it is going to be increasingly important. Having a public API allows other people to build on top of your platform; Paul Graham of the startup accelerator YCombinator says "APIs are self serve business development" (Paraphrased from this tweet).

I can imagine a lot of you are thinking 'We don't need an API!' / 'What would we do with an API?' / 'We have a website, so no need for an API.' These all sound strangely familiar to the same arguments we heard 15 years ago with the web. In the 90s hoardes of companies were unconvinced by the web, but later came to regret it. It's how companies such as Nissan ended up spending millions in later trying to secure their domain names (nissan.com remains owned by a small computer company with a handful of employees), and how other companies went out of business to their competitors who did embrace the web.

I'm not sure that all companies need an API, and we are in early days still. We're going to see the landscape change more still, and certainly many smaller companies might not need an API. However, my point is that companies need to be thinking about this, we as SEOs need to be thinking about how this will affect the industry over the next few years, how we can be forward looking to help out clients, and I'm mostly hoping this post kicks off some discussion about it all.

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Team USA Visits the White House

Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, September 17, 2012

Team USA Visits the White House

On Friday, the President and First Lady welcomed the 2012 U.S. Olympic and Paralympic teams to the White House to honor their participation and success in this year’s Olympic and Paralympic Games in London.

At an event on the South Lawn, Mrs. Obama told the athletes that she was impressed not only by the 200-plus medals they brought home, but also by their dedication and hard work leading up to the games.

President Obama -- who shared that he was able to catch some of the Olympic events thanks to mastering his DVR -- told the athletes that they "could not have been better ambassadors and better representatives for the United States and what we stand for."

Check out a video of the Team USA event and highlights from Twitter.

Seth's Blog : The people who came before you

The people who came before you

Maybe I'm not listening to your pitch because the 100 people who came before you abused my trust, stole my time and disrespected my attention.

Perhaps I'm not buying from you because the last time someone like you earned my trust, he broke my heart.

People are never irrational. They often act on memories and pressures that you're unaware of, though.

• Email to a friend •

duminică, 16 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Email From Lead Analyst, Weekly Petroleum Supply Team on Possibility of Recession

Posted: 16 Sep 2012 07:58 PM PDT

In response to Petroleum And Gasoline Usage Charts for June, July, August; Unemployment vs. Gasoline Usage Analysis, a post based on weekly petroleum stats from reader Tim Wallace, I received a very nice email including a superb set of charts from James Beck, Lead Analyst, Weekly Petroleum Supply Team for the Energy Information Administration.

James gave me permission to use his name and his charts as long as I mentioned that his email reflects his personal opinions, not necessarily that of the EIA.

It is a pleasure to get an email from a government worker who takes his job seriously, is exceptionally knowledgeable on his subject, and is willing to be quoted by name.

James writes ...

Hello, Mike and Tim,

Thank you again for using the data from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) in your analyses of the demand of petroleum and gasoline. As the Lead Analyst for the WPSR at the Energy Information Administration, I always appreciate when others use our data in providing analysis!

I have updated my charts that I sent to you a few months ago. I have included Total Petroleum "Product Supplied" (a proxy for demand), Gasoline Product Supplied, Total Distillate (Diesel and Heating Oil) Product Supplied, and Kerosene Jet Fuel Product Supplied charts for you to review. These charts (with all of their data included) are based on the EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) data. The reason to look at the monthly numbers is that they are more reliable than the weekly as the survey is of the entire industry and there is a great deal of extra time used to verify the data. Many people believe that the monthly numbers are a revision of the weekly numbers. This is not true. These are separate surveys. Where the monthly surveys the entire industry and collects much more detailed information, the weekly information is based on a sample of the industry drawn from the monthly reporters, collects less information, and is focused on timeliness versus completeness. The weekly numbers are estimates of the most recent week's data based on the sample and are a snapshot in time. The weekly is a very good indicator of the data, but the monthly is the touchstone (at least until the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) is released--which is, in fact, a revision of the monthly data). Also, the monthly numbers from 2011 have been revised (as have some of the numbers in 2012) with the release of the PSA late last month. You can see the revisions in the "Data 1" tab of the attached spreadsheets.

In each of these workbooks, I have also shown a comparison of the weekly data versus the monthly data. This shows that the weekly does do a reasonably good job of capturing trends; however, sometimes these are exaggerated in the weekly data. Although the monthly is lagged by two months, it is the better measure of the full picture.

The following commentary is from me as a private citizen, not as a spokesperson of the Energy Information Administration or the Department of Energy:

The data support your general point that total petroleum product demand is at 1997/98 levels. The running three-month average that I am using (Apr/May/Jun--the last three months available) show that total demand has bounced above the lowest point for the same three-month period in 2009, but remains significantly below 2010 and 2011 levels--remaining very near 1997/98 levels. This 15 years of demand destruction cannot be explained fully by increased efficiency or increased use of biofuels and renewables (these have, at most, a marginal effect). This is truly an indication of the real and continuing trouble in our economy, high unemployment and underemployment, loss of manufacturing, and reduction of shipping. Total product supplied for April - June has averaged 18.652 million barrels per day, 0.5% above the same period in 2009, and is the second-lowest level for the three-month period since 1997 (which was at 18.487 million barrels per day).

Demand for gasoline continues to be below 2002 levels and the lowest level for April - June since 2001 (earlier this year the PSM numbers had shown a slight increase over last year; however, with the revisions to the 2011 numbers in the PSA slightly upward, this trend was shown to be incorrect). Gasoline demand had rebounded somewhat in 2010 (rising near 2004 levels after the recession in 2008), but has fallen below the recessionary levels of 2008/09 in the last two years. At 9.035 million barrels per day, gasoline demand is down 0.4% from last year, but down 4.8% from the April - June peak in 2007 of 9.491 million barrels per day.

Distillate demand, on the other hand, continues to show weakness. For the period of April - June, it is down nearly 4.5% from last year. At 3.729 million barrels per day, it is at its lowest level since 2002. The concern I have is the year-over-year decline this year. Since diesel demand is a very good proxy for the health of the economy (all shipping uses diesel--trucking, rail, barge, etc.), this weakening from last year continues to be source of concern for the economy.

Demand for jet fuel has also fallen dramatically from 2007/08 (it had also fallen dramatically after the 9/11 attacks, never fully recovering to the levels seen from 1999 - 2001). At 1.437 million barrels per day during the period from April - June, KJet demand continues to be at levels we have not seen since 1994/95. The 2012 level is the second lowest for this three-month period since 1995. Although KJet demand is up 1.2% from the 2009 low for the period, it is down 2.4% from last year.

These numbers do not tell me that we are in a recovery. Despite increases in distillate and KJet demand in 2010 and 2011, and in gasoline in 2009 and 2010, these were well short of recovering from the decline in 2008/09. The decline year-over-year in these three core transportation indicators suggest a slowing in the economy if not a recession.

I hope you can make use of the charts. Please let me know if I can be of further assistance.

Thank you,
James Beck
Lead Analyst, Weekly Petroleum Supply Team
Energy Information Administration
Office of Petroleum and Biofuels Statistics

click on any of the following charts to see a sharper image

Gasoline Monthly April-May-June

Petroleum Monthly April-May-June

Diesel Monthly April-May-June

KJet Monthly April-May-June

Thanks James!

In the above charts, please compare the red dots to the preceding red dots to remove seasonal fluctuations.

Those charts confirm exactly what Tim Wallace and I have stated. Moreover, I specifically point out the opinion of James Beck "The decline year-over-year in these three core transportation indicators suggest a slowing in the economy if not a recession."

For more on the likelihood of a recession please see ...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Austria Central Bank, Germany Place Conditions on Spain Bailout and Bond Purchases

Posted: 16 Sep 2012 11:55 AM PDT

The head of Austria's central bank, Ewald Nowotny, and German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble have both made statements over this weekend that affect bailout options for Spain.

In particular, Nowotny says Spain must seek help before ECB buys bonds.

Spain would have to apply for a rescue package before qualifying for inclusion in the European Central Bank's plan to buy debt of struggling euro zone members, ECB policymaker Ewald Nowotny said.

Nowotny told Austria's Profil weekly that it was up to individual countries to ensure the ECB's bond-buying plan helps to overcome the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis.

Nowotny also questioned the wisdom of awarding equal voting rights to all national central bank governors in the ECB Governing Council, suggesting big countries should have more say.

His comments to Profil at the weekend were published after the head of Germany's influential Bundesbank was outvoted when the ECB agreed this month to buy bonds of debt-laden euro zone members that sought an international rescue.

"We always seek consensus. There are few cases where that is not the case, and then it can come to a vote. You cannot see as unproblematic that every governor has the same vote," Nowotny was quoted as saying in the magazine.

Further Steps Needed

Wolfgang Schaeuble says Further Steps Needed Before Banks Tap ESM

Handing bank oversight to the European Central Bank is not in itself sufficient to allow the euro zone's rescue fund to directly assist banks, Germany's Finance Minister said, warning he expected no such deal on supervision in 2012.

Wolfgang Schaeuble made the comments after talks between EU finance ministers on Saturday exposed deep divisions about a proposed banking union. That may disappoint investors who had been pinning hopes on a pledge by euro zone leaders to agree sweeping new powers for the ECB in 2012.

This in turn had been expected to unlock the possibility of direct aid to banks from the euro zone's rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), for countries such as Spain or Ireland.

"We have the declaration of the heads of governments of the euro zone that European banking supervision is a necessary but not sufficient prerequisite," Schaeuble told reporters after the ministers' meeting in Cyprus. "The rules of the ESM remain."

He said any country that is home to troubled banks would still need to apply for an adjustment program through the ESM.

The remarks contrasted with those of French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici, who called for quick action and underlined the commitment by euro zone leaders to reach a deal this year.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

luni, 17 septembrie 2012

The Role of APIs in the Future of Search

The Role of APIs in the Future of Search

History of How the Web Looks

History of How the Web is Consumed

History of How the Web is Searched

A Shift in How the web is Searched

Decline of the Web

A Final Thought

Team USA Visits the White House

Seth's Blog : The people who came before you

The people who came before you

More Recent Articles

duminică, 16 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

luni, 17 septembrie 2012

The Role of APIs in the Future of Search

The Role of APIs in the Future of Search

History of How the Web Looks

History of How the Web is Consumed

History of How the Web is Searched

A Shift in How the web is Searched

Decline of the Web

A Final Thought

Team USA Visits the White House

Seth's Blog : The people who came before you

The people who came before you

More Recent Articles

duminică, 16 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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