Central Perk

sâmbătă, 6 aprilie 2013

Weekly Address: The President's Plan to Create Jobs and Cut the Deficit

Saturday, April 6, 2013

Weekly Address: The President's Plan to Create Jobs and Cut the Deficit

President Obama tells the American people about the budget he is sending to Congress, which makes the tough choices required to grow our economy and shrink our deficits.

Watch this week's Weekly Address.

In Case You Missed It

Here’s a quick glimpse at what happened this week on WhiteHouse.gov:

Easter Egg Roll: On Monday, the First Family welcomed more than 30,000 guests to the South Lawn for the 135^th annual White House Easter Egg Roll. The event was filled with activities ranging from the traditional Easter Egg Roll to readings from stars such as Danica Patrick, Adrian Peterson, and even Elmo.

Reducing Gun Violence: On Thursday, President Obama traveled to Colorado to urge the American people to push Congress to vote on a set of common-sense proposals to help reduce gun violence. The President wants to close loopholes in the background check system to keep guns out of the hands of criminals and others who shouldn't have them -- and prevent mass shootings like the one that killed 20 young children and six adults in Newtown, CT.

Remembering a Legend: On Tuesday, the First Lady hosted 80 high school and college students for a showing of "42," the biopic of Jackie Robinson -- the first African-American baseball player to play major league baseball.

"Jackie and Rachel Robinson’s story reminds us how much hard work it takes to move a country forward," said the First Lady. "It reminds us how much struggle is required to make real progress and change."

Prime Minister of Singapore Visits: On Tuesday, President Obama welcomed Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore to the White House. The President thanked Singapore for being a strong economic and military partner in the Asia-Pacific region. The President also praised Singapore for providing "a steady vision of how countries in the Pacific region can cooperate effectively."

BRAIN Initiative Challenge: On Tuesday, the President introduced the "BRAIN" Initiative, an ambitious new research plan to accelerate our understanding of the human mind and find new ways to treat, prevent, and cure brain disorders such as Alzheimer’s, schizophrenia, autism, epilepsy, and traumatic brain injury.

Through investments in research and development like the BRAIN initiative, we can lay a national foundation to spur innovation, job creation, and economic growth. The project is one of the Administration’s "grand challenges" in science and technology, which will call upon companies, research universities, foundations, and philanthropists to ensure America continues "to lead the world in the next frontiers of human understanding." The President is very excited about the project and is confident America will lead the way in innovation:

Ideas are what power our economy. It’s what sets us apart… When we invest in the best ideas before anybody else does, our businesses and our workers can make the best products and deliver the best services before anybody else.

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When you sell unlimited hope...

then all news is bad news. That's because news is fact, what happened, not hope, and the truth can't possibly be as good as the hope was.

The problem with marketing promises that spin out of control, that pile expectations on top of dreams, is that when reality appears, when the quarterly numbers or the new policies or the final product arrives, it will inevitably disappoint.

This is the challenge of the Kickstarter artist, the growth stock CEO and the well-published author. Dreams are irresistible, but they will never match reality when it finally appears.

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vineri, 5 aprilie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Canada Unexpectedly Sheds 54,500 Jobs in March; Worst Job Loss in 4 Years; Canadian Dollar Tumbles

Posted: 05 Apr 2013 12:50 PM PDT

Our neighbor to the North also suffered from an unexpectedly weak jobs report today, the worst monthly job losses in more than four years.

Canada shed 54,500 positions in March, more than wiping out the 50,700 jobs that were added in February, Statistics Canada said on Friday. Market operators had expected a modest gain of 8,500 jobs.

It was the biggest monthly jobs loss since February 2009, when the economy shed 69,300 positions. The March unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent from 7.0 percent.

"The employment numbers did seem to be defying gravity up until March and were not lining up with the underlying growth numbers," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. "We knew one of them had to give way and it looks as if employment has given way."

Adding to the gloom were trade figures for February that showed Canada's deficit increased to C$1.02 billion on both lower exports and higher imports. Traders had expected a surplus of C$200 million.

Canadian Dollar Tumbles

Bloomberg reports Canadian Dollar Tumbles After Unexpected March Employment Loss

The Canadian dollar fell in its biggest decline in nine months against its U.S. peer after the nation unexpectedly lost jobs last month by the most since the last recession four years ago.

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the C$1 coin, fell 0.6 percent to C$1.0183 at 2:09 p.m. in Toronto. Earlier, it fell 1.1 percent to C$1.0236 per U.S. dollar, the largest drop since June 28. One loonie buys 98.20 U.S. cents.

I think we have seen the end of good jobs reports here and in Canada for quite some time.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Jobs +88,000, Unemployment Rate 7.6%, Household Survey Employment Drops by 206,000

Posted: 05 Apr 2013 07:36 AM PDT

Initial Reaction

The surge in employment fueled by part-time jobs and the Obamacare effect may finally be over. Although the establishment survey showed a gain of 88,000 jobs, the household survey, off which the unemployment rate is based, showed a loss of 206,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate edged lower by .1% because a whopping 496,000 people dropped out of the labor force.

Last month, voluntary part-time employment rose by a reported 446,000. It's plain to see that last month's numbers were a statistical aberration. This was a miserable jobs report from every angle.

March BLS Jobs Report at a Glance

Payrolls +88,000 - Establishment Survey
US Employment -206,000 - Household Survey
US Unemployment -290,000 - Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work -230,000 - Household Survey;
Voluntary Part-Time Work -163,000 - Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate -.01 - Household Survey
U-6 unemployment -.05 to 13.8% - Household Survey
The Civilian Labor Force -496,000 - Household Survey
Not in Labor Force +663,000 - Household Survey
Participation Rate -.02 to 63.3 - Household Survey

Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,069,000
Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 1,266,000
In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,686,000 to 11,742,000 (a drop of 944,000)
Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 4,611,000 - a decline of 186,000 from last month's total of was 4,797,000
Percentage of long-term unemployment is 39.6%. It has been hovering near 40% for at least a year. Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.

March 2013 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) March 2013 Employment Report.

Nonfarm payroll employment edged up in March (+88,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in professional and business services and in health care but declined in retail trade.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Month to Month Change by Type of Job

Average weekly hours rose .1 to at 34.6 hours. A year ago average hours were 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings rose $0.01 to $23.83.
In 2013, average hourly earnings are up $0.05.
Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security.

For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013

Birth-Death Notes

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small.

For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again.

Household Survey Data

Decline in Labor Force Factors

Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
People retire because they cannot find jobs
People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 10%.

Part Time Status (in Thousands)

click on chart for sharper image

There are 7,638,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 7,664,000. There has been no improvement in a year. This is a volatile series.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment

click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 7.6%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 13.8%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Duration of Unemployment

Long-term unemployment remains in a disaster zone with 39.6% of the unemployed in the 27 weeks or longer category.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers.

Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are much worse than the reported numbers indicate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Best Harlem Shake Versions #10 [Video]
Hot Calvin Klein Model Then and Now
Pretty Supergirls
The Most Incredible Kids' Tree House Ever
10 Most Expensive Weddings [Infographic]

Best Harlem Shake Versions #10 [Video]

Posted: 05 Apr 2013 11:50 AM PDT

Hot Calvin Klein Model Then and Now

Posted: 05 Apr 2013 11:41 AM PDT

was the first male model to get a six-figure deal to model for Calvin Klein in 2002.

And here's what he looks like today:

Via buzzfeed

Pretty Supergirls

Posted: 05 Apr 2013 10:52 AM PDT

Pretty girls wearing Supergirl costumes.

The Most Incredible Kids' Tree House Ever

Posted: 05 Apr 2013 10:18 AM PDT

Steve and Jeri Wakefield had the idea nine years ago to build an elaborate tree house for their grandsons, Lincoln and Sullivan Scott, in their Dallas backyard. They hired architect and family friend James Curvan to craft a whimsical playhouse with steeply pitched gables, multilevel decks and staircases. To keep pace as their grandsons grew, the Wakefields added exciting upgrades, including a climbing wall, rope ladder, suspension bridge and zip line… With their grandsons all grown up now, the Wakefields invite children from all over the neighborhood to their tree house mansion to play king or queen for a day.

Via houzz

10 Most Expensive Weddings [Infographic]

Posted: 05 Apr 2013 09:17 AM PDT

All you need is love, right? Well if you're one of these 10 couples, you'll also need a lot of money for things like $40,000 cakes, catering for 11,000 guests or to pay to have Kylie Minogue perform at your wedding.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Via Aussie Blog

sâmbătă, 6 aprilie 2013

Weekly Address: The President's Plan to Create Jobs and Cut the Deficit