Central Perk

joi, 10 octombrie 2013

Thank you, Jay

My friend and occasional co-author Jay Levinson just passed away. He was eighty.

Jay helped invent the idea of the modern marketing book, pioneered Guerrilla Marketing (which has nothing to do with gorillas and everything to do with thinking independently and bravely ) and influenced several generations of leaders.

But most of all, I want to thank Jay for living a generous life. He never kept a secret, never hesitated to teach, to point something out, to lift someone up.

Jay was at his best when, with a mischievous smile, he'd answer a question, turning a newbie into an expert with one of his many lists or with a clever story. The point of his many, many books wasn't that there was a formula to follow, but that there was an attitude, an attitude that could help just about anyone make a difference.

The core of that attitude was the lighthearted application of generosity, for no other reason than it was the right thing to do.

We'll miss you, Jay.

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Mega-SERP: A Visual Guide to Google

Posted: 09 Oct 2013 04:05 PM PDT

Posted by Dr-Pete

The days of 10 blue links are over, and Google's search result pages seem to be evolving on a daily basis. We often see new SERP features in isolation, so I had an ideaâ€"what if I put all of them (or, at least, all of the big ones), on one mega-SERP? The following is a visual guide to the state of Google in 2013.

A few disclaimers

This is not a real Google SERP, although it is constructed from real results. Many of these features do not occur together in the wild. For example, you can have top+side or top+bottom AdWords blocks, but not all three. Statistics (after the image) were taken from 10,000 queries over the week of September 22, 2013 (daily average, as measured by the MozCast Project). These queries represent a variety of lengths and volumes, but do tend to skew commercial. This post is not an endorsement of any taco-related product or service, but I do love me some tacos. Without further ado, I give you Mega-SERP (click on the image for a full-sized version):

Let's dive into these 24 distinct features, which I've grouped into five color-coded buckets: "Local," "Advertising," "Knowledge Graph," "Vertical," and "General." Each feature includes, where available, the prevalence of that feature across MozCast's 10K query set. The first percentage is by unique queries, and the second (in parentheses) is by query volume. Up first are the local features.

Local SERP features

(A) Local Carousel â€" 1.0% (0.3%)

There are two types of carouselsâ€"local and knowledge graphâ€"but only one on any give SERP. I've chosen to show a local carousel, since they seem to impact more competitive queries and are reshaping the local SEO landscape.

(G) Local Knowledge Panel â€" 6.3% (3.4%)

Some organic results are blended with a local listing and map pin, and clicking on them pulls up a Knowledge Graph panel (previously called an "authoritative one-box"). These results don't always appear in the #1 position, but they seem to be more common on higher authority sites.

(J) Local "Pack" Results â€" 7.3% (8.4%)

Blended packs are the most familiar local results, and mix Google Maps data with organic listing that have local relevance..he 7-pack accounting for 81% of the local packs in our data set. Packs range from two to seven local results, and we've seen them in any position from #1 to #9, but they tend to be more common in the top half of the SERP.

(M) Local "Near" Results â€" 5.1% (4.1%)

The "near" box is a pure local pack, pulling data directly from Google Maps. These packs max out at three results. Near boxes are usually called out with a header in the form of "[Query] near [Location]".

(Y) Google Map + Pins â€" 11.3% (10.1%)

Results with "pinned" listings (such as local packs) almost always trigger a map, although the location, size, and even presence of the map has started to vary quite a bit. Except for traffic maps, all maps we've seen appear in the right-hand column.

Advertising and paid results

Advertising includes both the traditional AdWords blocks and the newer, paid inclusion results. Keep in mind that the presence of advertising is highly variable and depends on factors like competition, time of day, seasonality, etc. The numbers below should only be taken as rough estimates.

(C) AdWords Ads (Top) â€" 72.2% (72.8%)

The top-left AdWords block (above organic results) is easily the most common, and it ranges from one to three results. Ad formats are becoming much richer, as you can see from the Mega-SERP example, which includes both photos and site-links.

**(D) Shopping Results (Left) â€" 18.2%* (19.0%)**

Paid shopping results usually appear as a horizontal block of product images and links, but Google is testing variations. Shopping results can appear in either the left or right column, and are typically at the top. Our system currently only tracks total shopping results, and doesn't separate the data for left vs. right.

(R) AdWords Ads (Bottom) â€" 16.5% (14.9%)

The bottom AdWords block is very similar to the top block, and can contain up to three results.

(T) Shopping Results (Right)

Most shopping results on the right look the same as results on the left, but there are some noticeable exceptions, such as paid product placement for a single product. Those variations are still the minority of cases, but expect Google to experiment a lot in the near future.

(W) AdWords Ads (Right) â€" 42.4% (41.6%)

The right-hand column block of ads has the highest count, and can contain up to eight AdWords ads. These ads typically have very few enhancements or added features. AdWords ads always seem to start at the top and then either flow into the right column or bottom section (never both, at least in our data).

Knowledge Graph features

Many people call the informational box in the right-hand column the "knowledge graph," but the knowledge graph is a complex combination of data sources and algorithms that is starting to manifest across the SERP. Following are a few common entities that seem to be connected to the knowledge graph.

(B) List Carousel

Google recently (September 27th) launched a new form of white-backgrounded carousel (Mega-SERP query was "taco songs"), which currently seems to appear for certain music-related searches. Clicking on any song takes you to a new SERP and a prominent YouTube box at the top of the page.

(E) Answer Box â€" 1.4% (1.3%)

There are many, many shapes and sizes of answer boxes (see my post exploring 101 answer boxes), but they almost always appear as a gray-outlined box at the top of the left-hand column. Some of this data comes directly from third-party sources, but much of it seems to be tied to the knowledge graph.

**(U) Knowledge Graph (Info) â€" 26.2%* (32.6%)**

This is what most people think of when they hear "knowledge graph"â€"a block of information about a subject, in this case nutritional information. Informational knowledge graph boxes have many variants. Our data tracks all knowledge graph entities (except answer boxes) under one number, so the 26.5% represents the entire world of knowledge graph boxes.

(V) Knowledge Graph (Brand)

While technically still a knowledge graph box, brand boxes seem to be connected to Google+, allowing you to follow a brands G+ page and recent activity.

(X) Disambiguation Box

The disambiguation box occurs when Google thinks that a searcher's intent is ambiguous and wants to provide options. In the Mega-SERP example, a search for "taco shell" brought up options for tortilla or Taco Bell. Clicking on one of these links triggers a new search.

Vertical search results

So-called "vertical" results used to be very cleanly separated in Google and not counted as organic listings, but that line is beginning to blur. For example, many video results now seem to be integrated directly as organic (as in the Mega-SERP example). I'm treating the new "In-depth articles" as a vertical result, because of its close relationship to news results.

(F) Image Mega-block

The mega-block of images is rare, and seems to only occur at the top in 7-result SERPs. The Mega-SERP example comes from the search "pictures of tacos", and these images almost always appear for searches starting with "pictures ofâ€¦", "photos ofâ€¦", etc.

(I) Video Results â€" 18.5% (22.0%)

Currently, video results are integrated into organic results, with the exception that they show a thumbnail of the video and sometimes a publication date. Video results can appear at any position in the SERP.

(N) Image Results â€" 24.6% (27.5%)

Image results are still a "true" vertical and are tied directly to Google Image search. Standard image results appear as a horizontal block of images in the left-hand column, and their position varies. These results link directly to Google Images.

(O) News Results â€" 19.6% (29.8%)

News results are another true vertical, and also occur as a distinct block in the left-hand column. The news block can have up to three links, and the first link is often enhanced with a thumbnail image.

(Q) In-depth Articles â€" 5.2% (9.9%)

Launched in August of 2013, "In-depth articles" are one of the biggest new features of the year. The in-depth block is a fairly large set of three articles (which can all have thumbnails, currently). Google seems to reserve this block for content that is evergreen and literally "in-depth," and most of these links come from major publications like The New York Times. Unlike news results, these links may be months or even years old and are not updated regularly.

Miscellaneous features

Finally, we have the SERP features that just don't belong to any one group. Sorry, miscellaneous featuresâ€"we still love you.

(H) Site-links (6-pack) â€" 19.4% (19.9%)

The #1 organic listing may be rewarded with expanded site-linksâ€"anywhere from one to six, depending on the site. There is a perfect correlation, at least in our data, between site-links and 7-result SERPs (i.e. if a result has site-links, it's a 7-result SERP). Google is experimenting with 10-packs of site-links, but only for domain queries (currently), like "tacobell.com".

(K) Authorship Mark-up â€" 21.9% (20.9%)

If Google can connect a resource to a Google+ entity, that result may get authorship mark-up, which adds a thumbnail of the author, his/her name, and some basic G+ stats. Also, there's apparently such a thing as "taco journalism."

(L) Review Mark-up â€" 24.0% (24.6%)

Products, recipes, and other appropriate entities may show review data, including stars. In the Mega-SERP example, the recipe listing is also showing a thumbnail image.

(P) Social Results

Social results have evolved a lot in the past year or so, and the current incarnation looks a lot like authorship mark-up, but there's one big differenceâ€"these results are 100% personalized. My friend Dan is only showing up here because we're in each other's G+ circles.

(S) Related Searches

This aspect of the SERP has almost become so ubiquitous that I hesitate to even call it a feature. The vast majority of searches (sorry, we don't have exact numbers on this one) have links at the bottom to related topics.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

Seth's Blog : Better than free

Better than free

How do you compete with free? How does a wedding photographer or a travel agent—someone who used to make a good living performing a task that was hard to do without them—compete against ubiquitous free alternatives?

There's only one way: Sell something better than free.

Make a product or provide a service that's worth paying for.

You don't need a better way to talk about what you do, or a better gimmick, or a better social media strategy. In fact, you need to reinvent and rebuild what you make for a new reality, a reality where paying for something is an intentional act of buying something way better than the free alternative.

I'm sorry if this seems obvious. It's apparently not obvious to all the frustrated people I encounter who are still trying to sell the old thing in a new market.

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miercuri, 9 octombrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Charts from Lacy Hunt's Presentation at Casey Research October Conference
Marine Le Pen's Eurosceptic "National Front" Party Takes Lead in France National Poll
High-Tech Robotic Wine: The Future of Winemaking is Robots

Charts from Lacy Hunt's Presentation at Casey Research October Conference

Posted: 09 Oct 2013 11:24 PM PDT

Last week, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Executive Vice President of Hoisington Investment Management Company, made a presentation at the Casey Research 2013 Summit.

I am a big fan of Dr. Hunt, and he graciously agreed to let me post some of the charts from his 42 page PDF.

I selected charts on a theme of US debt vs. Debt in other countries. The charts that follow are from Lacy Hunt. The comments that follow are mine.

US Private and Public Debt as Percent of GDP

click on any chart for sharper image

The above chart looks (and is) extremely alarming. But how does it compare with debt in other countries?

Major Countries Private and Public Debt as Percent of GDP

Many other major countries are as bad off as the US. But those charts show public and private debt. Inquiring minds may be interested in public debt alone.

Government Liabilities as Percent of GDP

highlighting mine

US vs. Europe

It would be very interesting to see stats on China, but detailed stats were not available. For now, please compare the US to France, Japan, the UK and even Germany.

Germany is widely viewed as the bastion of fiscal sanity. Is it? The above table suggests otherwise, and the closer you look, the worse off Germany seems.

Recall that Spain's deficit is projected to hit 100% of GDP next year. I wrote about Spain recently in Pensions, Unemployment, Interest on Public Debt, Consume 54% of Spain's Budget; Debt Hits 100% of GDP; Expect Plan "B" or Plan "C".

If Spain, Italy, or Greece exits the eurozone, then Germany will be left holding the bag for its share of the defaults.

And if peripheral Europe stays in the Eurozone, expect another decade of no growth for all of Europe, not just peripheral Europe.

China's Hidden Debt

In China, credit is on an explosive trend up (again). Hidden debt is massive. See Bulls and Bears Debate China: Property Bubble Expands Again; GDP Growth Picks Up; Economic Recovery Underway? No Says Michael Pettis

US Centric Focus

Curiously, most bloggers ignore vitally important global data, and focus solely on the US, primarily money supply.

In Ron Paul Ruins a Great Economic Rant, Being Seriously Wrong on One Key Point, I was critical of a statement made by Ron Paul "At some point the Fed's policies will result in hyper-inflation".

I happen to be a huge fan of Ron Paul and his libertarian philosophy in general, but such statements do not stand up to close scrutiny.

To be fair, I do not know precisely what Paul meant by "at some point", but economic advice beyond a 5-10 year timeframe is at best useless.

One reader emailed me ...

"YOU fail to understand HYPERINFLATION is a PANIC event, when governments lose control.

And whilst you keep banging the drums of no hyperinflation and nonexistant deflation, you keep missing the big picture which is of EXPONENTIAL INFLATION, a trend around which asset prices oscillate.

Understand this Hyperinflation is a feedback loop. It emerges FROM the midst of an exponential inflation trend as a consequence of government deficit spending and central bank money printing - QE!

Hyperinflation is a Political Event

Actually, I do understand that hyperinflation happens when governments lose control.

More specifically, hyperinflation is not even a result of a monetary event (but rather the result of a political one).

I have written about the politics of hyperinflation at great length on numerous occasions.

For a discussion regarding the politics of hyperinflation (including Weimar Germany, Argentina, Chile, other countries), please see Reader Questions On Hyperinflation; Would Printing $50 Trillion Tomorrow Do Anything?

Glut of Labor, Dearth of Jobs

When I look around (globally), and see a glut of labor, a dearth of jobs, and pressure on wages. People are still deleveraging.

These are not conditions of hyperinflation. Heck, they are barely inflationary at all (in this sense I am referring to prices of consumer goods, not asset prices).

The Fed wants QE to spur lending and job creation. But the Fed can only make money available for lending. It cannot control where the money goes (or if it goes anywhere at all). The Fed cannot force people to borrow or banks to lend. Currently, money piles up as excess reserves.

Excess Reserves

Bubbles, Bubbles

$2.3+- trillion dollars is parked at the Fed as excess reserves.

For all its herculean efforts, the Fed (central bankers in general) did not spur lending or job creation. However, the Fed did create another bubble in assets (especially stocks and corporate bonds).

I suggest the Fed would be hard-pressed to create hyperinflation even if it wanted to (and it most assuredly doesn't want to).

On the other hand, Congress could easily create hyperinflation (in theory), simply by giving everyone in the US $5,000,000 per month to spend. That would surely do it, but that's not about to happen (in practice), and it's the "in practice" that matters.

One at the debt ceiling debate is enough to conclude Congress is not going to be sending multiple $5,000,000 checks to everyone in the US.

The Case for Gold

I fully expect the Fed to continue its efforts to spur economic growth, but I do not expect the Fed to succeed. In the meantime, and unless it's different this time, gold stands to be the beneficiary (sooner rather than later, and well within reasonable investment horizons).

Here is the pertinent chart from US Debt Already Exceeds Debt Limit by $48 Billion Minimum; Gold vs. Debt Ceiling.

US Debt and Debt Limit vs. Gold

click on chart for sharper image

The Case for Treasuries

Amusingly, the case for treasuries is similar. The Fed is highly unlikely to hike and probably will be far slower at tapering than most think.

Growth will be far lower than most think. That combination is not enough to ensure treasury yields drop, but it is enough to suggest treasury yields are not likely to soar out of sight.

For further discussion, please see Case for Gold vs. the Case for Treasuries; Is Bill Gross Talking His Book or Talking Reality?

So here we are. One does not have to like US treasuries, but it sure would behoove analysts predicting massive inflation to consider the entire global picture instead of focusing solely on US money supply growth.

Global Picture

Glut of labor - nearly everywhere
Dearth of jobs - nearly everywhere
Pressure on wages - nearly everywhere
Consumer attitudes towards borrowing and going into debt have soured - US and Europe
Demographics of Aging Boomers - US, Japan, Europe
Student loans turn kids fresh out of college into debt slaves - US
Low household formation - Many countries including US
Household deleveraging - US and Europe
Property bubbles in China, Australia, Canada, UK
Credit explosion in China
Massive overbuilding of infrastructure in China
Massive problems, inefficiencies, and hidden debt related to SOEs in China
Technology trends suggest more layoffs in widespread industries - everywhere
European banks leveraged to the hilt in their own sovereign bonds
European banks in worse shape than US banks
Abenomics - Japan
Insufficient retirement savings - everywhere

Yes, I understand the Fed is doing "all it can". And it has created bubbles as well as economic distortions everywhere.

But bubbles, by definition, collapse. And collapsing bubbles are deflationary.

So forget about hyperinflation (or even strong price inflation), and focus on collapsing bubbles, consumer attitudes towards lending and borrowing, the glut of labor, the dearth of jobs, increasing competition, Abenomics, and the demographic need to save for retirement.

All things considered, I fail to see how one can look at the global picture and conclude price inflation in the US is imminent.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Marine Le Pen's Eurosceptic "National Front" Party Takes Lead in France National Poll

Posted: 09 Oct 2013 12:34 PM PDT

Given the extreme economic mess socialist president Francois Hollande has made in France, it should not be too shocking to discover a surge in the popularity of the National Front, a far-right, eurosceptic political party led by Marine Le Pen.

A recent poll by Le Nouvel Observateur shows the National Front is in the lead for the first time ever.

Poll Results

To show just how far the socialists have fallen out of favor, UMP is a center-right political party, once led by former president Nicolas Sarkozy who lost the last presidential election to Francois Hollande.

Le Pen "Ready for Elysee"

National Front leader, Marine Le Pen tells news agency ANSAmed 'I am ready for Elysee'.

Le Pen spoke in an interview with ANSAmed on the same day an IFOP survey for the Nouvel Observateur showed her right-wing party leading in the polls ahead of the 2014 European elections - an absolute first for France.

"Yes, I feel I am ready for the Elysee", Le Pen assured ANSAmed over the phone.

She is "not surprised" at the results of the survey.

"Today we are the leading party. The Socialists and the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) can only win if they make a deal and form a pact of national unity", added Jean-Marie Le Pen's daughter, who came in third after current Socialist President Francois Hollande and outgoing UMP president Nicolas Sarkozy in the 2012 presidential elections.

Le Pen went on to explain that hers "is not an extreme right party" but rather a "patriotic, extremely democratic one". It stands for more "popular referendums" with a "Gaullist vision" of national sovereignty and independence.

"Also, we are not against a market economy", she continued.

Asked whether she thinks her party resembles Italy's anti-establishment, anti-euro 5-Star Movement (M5S), Le Pen said that "there is no movement like ours right now. Ours is a mature party, with 40 years of history behind it. The M5S movement is a recent one, born of citizens' exasperation at the current crisis".

Le Pen, who opposes the EU and the single currency, reiterated the need to liberate France from the yoke of the Brussels technocrats - and of others.

"It's time to put an end to the status quo. We no longer want to be vassals of the United States or the Gulf monarchies", she warned.

French Legend Delon 'Supports' Far-Right

France24 reports French Legend Delon 'Supports' Far-Right.

French actor Alain Delon said he supports France's far-right party, the National Front, in an interview published in a Swiss newspaper on Wednesday. The movie star was popular in the 1960s and was once referred to as the "male Brigitte Bardot."

French film star Alain Delon has come out in support of France's far-right political party the National Front (FN).In an interview published on Wednesday in the Swiss daily Le Matin, the actor, whose career has seen him appear in some 100 films, described the National Front's growth as "uplifting."

Delon went to on to say that he "approves" the party's progress, which he attributed to a general sense of gloom due to what, he called, was a lack of political action.

"The National Front, like the MCG [Geneva Citizens' Movement] in Geneva, is very important…I encourage it and I perfectly understand it," he said in comments published in the newspaper.

"For years, the Le Pen father and daughter team [Jean-Marie, former head of the National Front, and Marine, its current leader] have been fighting, but they've been fighting a lonely battle," he said. "Now, for the first time, they are no longer alone. They have the French people…And that it's reaching Geneva, that's incredibly important. They're fed up there too."

Francois Hollande is toast. What follows remains to be seen. But a healthy dose of euroscepticism and anti-Brussels sentiment should be a welcome event to anyone rightfully fearful of the socialist nannycrats in Brussels.

Speaking of which, European Parliamentary Elections will be held between May 22 and May 25, 2014.

It will be a welcome state of affairs (as well as quite entertaining) to see Euroskeptic UKIP party leader Nigel Farage get some good company in parliament.

Here is a very entertaining speech by Farage to parliament in September 2013.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

High-Tech Robotic Wine: The Future of Winemaking is Robots

Posted: 09 Oct 2013 10:22 AM PDT

Winemaker Hall Vineyard is one of the first in Napa Valley California utilizing optic technology to replace hand sorting grapes.

Bloomberg Television's Rachel Crane traveled to Hall Vineyards in the heart of Napa to get the season's first taste of high tech wine.

A robot takes pictures at 10,000 frames per second and analyzes the grapes instantly, selecting the ones that meet Steve Leveque's programmed specifications. Leveque is Hall's Director of Winemaking. A puff of air blats out unwanted grapes.

The robot does the job of 60 laborers in just a few hours. Leveque expects a return on his robotic investment in a couple of years.

Eight winemakers in Napa Valley have invested in robotic technology.

link if video does not play: Future of Winemaking is High-Tech Robots

The future of winemaking is robots, and the future is now.

A quick check on Hall's Winemaker page says "HALL is truly devoted to making great wine—going about achieving that in all the right ways: Organically farmed vineyards, hand-sorted fruit, gravity-fed tanks, native yeast fermentations." - Steve Leveque

Given the future has arrived, Hall needs an update on that page to say "robot-sorted fruit".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

World Bodypainting Festival 2013
Steampunk Cafe in South Africa
Belgian Firefighters vs Riot Police
Differences Between Chinese and Western Cultures
‘Breaking Bad’ Storage Unit: How Much is Enough? [Infographic]

World Bodypainting Festival 2013

Posted: 09 Oct 2013 04:58 PM PDT

The world's biggest bodypainting event took place from July 5 to 7 at lake Woerthersee in Austria's southern Carinthia province.

Steampunk Cafe in South Africa

Posted: 09 Oct 2013 10:32 AM PDT

Truth Coffee's cafe in Cape Town, South Africa, has a very interesting and unusual interior design. It has steel railings, copper pipes and other steampunk elements all over the place.

Belgian Firefighters vs Riot Police

Posted: 09 Oct 2013 09:34 AM PDT

Belgian firefighters covered riot police with foam during the protest against the working conditions and the budget cuts.

Differences Between Chinese and Western Cultures

Posted: 09 Oct 2013 09:13 AM PDT

Blue -> Western, Red -> Chinese

Opinion

Way of Life

Punctuality

Contacts

Anger

Queue when Waiting

Sundays on the Road

Party

In the Restaurant

Stomach Ache

Traveling

Definition of Beauty

Handling of Problems

Three Meals a Day

Transportation

Elderly in Day to Day Life

Shower Timing

Moods and Weather

The Boss

What's Trends

The Child

Things that are New

Perception of Each Other

Via curiousjames

‘Breaking Bad’ Storage Unit: How Much is Enough? [Infographic]

Posted: 09 Oct 2013 08:15 AM PDT

If you're one of the millions of fans of AMC's critically acclaimed drama "Breaking Bad," then you've undoubtedly ben riveted by every little detail that pops up in just about every episode. Here at SpareFoot, we've been fixated on that cash-filled storage unit that Skyler and Walt started using at the middle of the final season, and we soon found out that other fans were too. So we decided to take a stab at answering the 13 most obvious questions surrounding this storage unit. To find out the answer to some of the most nagging questions about this unit, check out the groundbreaking infographic presented below.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Via sparefoot