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luni, 24 februarie 2014

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Seth's Blog : Emotionally obsolete

Emotionally obsolete

Innovations often succeed by creating obsolence.

There's functional obsolence which is powerful but rare. If I own a word processor so I can create documents and edit them with others, a new version of the software (with a new file format) makes my software obsolete. When my colleagues send over a document, I have no choice but to upgrade.

Functional obsolence is almost always caused by interactivity--when files or cables or parts or languages don't connect any longer, they become obsolete.

Far more common is emotional obsolence. The rage you feel when an improved laptop is announced a week after you bought a new one is an example of this. Your old laptop does everything it used to do, of course, but one reason you bought it was to have the 'best laptop' and the launch of a newer model undoes that for you.

Modern architecture has made many existing office buildings emotionally obsolete, because they are no longer the trophies they used to be. A newfangled digital device for audiophiles doesn't do anything to make old CD players functionally obsolete, but it certainly can shatter the illusion of sound perfection that a stereo lover who doesn't own one may be experiencing.

Start by realizing that most people who buy a new innovation are not brand new to the market. They buy the new thing as a step up from an old thing. Most hockey equipment is sold to people who already play hockey.

It's tempting to argue, logically and step by step, why your new product or service is better than the one that's already on the market. It's far more likely, though, that your story will resonate most with people who aren't seeking functionality but instead were happy with the thing they had, but now, thanks to you, believe it has become obsolete. Our neophilia is a powerful desire, and buyer's remorse is its flipside.

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duminică, 23 februarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Detroit Bankruptcy Proposal - No One is Happy - Does that Make a Good Settlement?

Posted: 23 Feb 2014 06:47 PM PST

The Detroit pensioners are up in arms over the latest proposal submitted on February 20 by emergency manager Kevyn Orr.

Bondholders are also upset. If everyone is upset, does that mean the deal is fair?

Let's investigate the idea starting with Detroit bankruptcy plan includes deep pension cuts

Detroit's plan to emerge from bankruptcy this year largely hinges on significant cuts to city workers' pensions and retiree health benefits — actions vehemently fought by public employee unions — as well as decreased payments to bondholders, according to a blueprint filed Friday to restructure the city's $18-billion debt.

In the plan, which probably will be amended in the weeks ahead, police, firefighters and those departments' retirees will take a 10% cut to their current pension payment. The pensions of all other city employees and retirees will be cut more than three times as much: 34%. Neither group will receive cost of living adjustments in the future.

Unions immediately decried the bankruptcy blueprint.

"The plan is unfair and unacceptable," Al Garrett, president of the Michigan branch of the American Federation of State and Municipal Employees, said in a statement Friday. "Retirees cannot survive these drastic cuts."

Many city employees maintain that pensions are protected under the Michigan Constitution, and that the state must chip in to make sure pensioners are made whole.

"A more than 30% cut combined with the virtual elimination of healthcare is devastating to the people who dedicated a career to Detroit," Jordan Marks, executive director of the National Public Pension Coalition, said in a statement.

Creditors also objected to the plan Friday.

"While we understand that favoring pensioners and discriminating against bondholders and other creditors might be politically popular, we believe this is contrary to bankruptcy law and will result in costly litigation that will hamper the city's emergence from bankruptcy," Steve Spencer, financial advisor to the single largest unsecured creditor in the case, Financial Guaranty Insurance Company, said in a statement.

Detroit Bankruptcy Funding Hinges on Creditor Settlement

Bloomberg reports Detroit Bankruptcy Funding Hinges on Creditor Settlement.

Detroit's plan to end its $18 billion bankruptcy assumes bondholders offered 20 cents on the dollar will eventually swallow a deal that guarantees police and firefighters collect 90 percent of their pensions.

Within hours of the plan being filed, the creditors that city officials must win over rejected the proposal, even as they continue talking behind closed doors. Unions and bond insurers both registered their displeasure.

"While we understand that favoring pensioners and discriminating against bondholders and other creditors might be politically popular, we believe this is contrary to bankruptcy law and will result in costly litigation that will hamper the city's emergence from bankruptcy," Steve Spencer, a financial adviser for bond insurer FGIC Corp., said in an e-mailed statement.

"The proposed plan of adjustment is a gut punch to Detroit city workers and retirees," the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees said in a statement. "Retirees cannot survive these huge cuts to the pensions they earned. The plan is unfair and unacceptable."

Under the plan, the city's retired general employees, represented by AFSCME, wouldn't get as much as police and firefighters. If Rhodes approves the plan as-is, the general workers would be forced to take 66 percent of their current pensions. If the workers voluntarily accept the proposal, they would get 74 percent, and police and firefighters 96 percent, according to the filing.

The city's emergency financial manager, Kevyn Orr, told reporters yesterday that the $820 million contribution hinges on an "all in" deal.

"We need a settlement from everybody," he said. The foundations supplying the money are trying to protect the artwork in the city-owned Detroit Institute of Arts.

The proposal filed yesterday doesn't include any cash for creditors from a potential new source: a Great Lakes Water and Sewer Authority, which would take over responsibilities from the city. Detroit has said it wants to create the authority and then lease its water and sewer operations to it to boost creditor recoveries.

Under the plan, the city would fully repay water and sewer bonds, as well as other debt that's backed by collateral.

Money paid from the pension fund to the annuity savings program from 1999 through 2012 would be put back in the fund. Orr didn't divulge how much the restitution would cost the employees and retirees who may have received the payments, which totaled about $756 million from 1985 through 2007, according to city records.

The plan also places restrictions on the city's two retirement programs, and leaves open the door to changing their governing boards under a mediated settlement that includes Republican Governor Rick Snyder and the GOP-controlled legislature. The pension board would be required to limit to 6.25 percent their expected returns on investment.

After a vote, creditors can raise further objections at a confirmation hearing. Rhodes will take the votes and the objections into account before deciding whether to confirm the plan. Bankruptcy law permits him to override a "no" vote through a process known as a cram-down.

Impossible

Everyone wants to be made whole. Unfortunately that's impossible. If it were possible, Detroit would not be in a state of bankruptcy in the first place.

Who Pays and By How Much?

If paying off everyone at 100% is impossible (and it clearly is), the critical question is "Who Pays and By How Much?"

That is what the debate is all about, and no one is happy.

Yet, given that it's mathematically impossible for everyone to be happy, the standard argument that "no one is happy, so it's a fair deal" goes straight into the ash can where it belongs.

Unfortunately, in regards to "what is fair" details are lacking. For example, how much of the police and fire pensions are really funded?

The settlement assumes 6.25 percent returns on investment. I suggest that is enormously on the high side.

And what happens to whom if those assumptions are not met? And while other pensioners are whining about 34% cuts, bondholders face an 80% cut.

The plan does overly favor some bondholder interests (see Bank of America and City Official Fraud Enters the Detroit Bankruptcy Equation; Fair Settlement Reviewed Again), but the amounts involved seem tiny compared to the total haircuts required in dollar terms.

Even assuming (as I do) the plan is overly generous to Bank of America/Merill Lynch, it does screw other bondholders.

A rush agreement to accept the first proposal is not a good idea. Thus, I hope Judge Stephen Rhodes sends this proposal back to drawing board citing numerous "fairness" objections.

I do not think either side should get an unfair advantage. Both bondholders and pensioners should suffer.

For further discussion, please consider Controversy in Detroit: What's a Fair Settlement of Bondholder and Pension Obligation Claims?

Meanwhile, I suggest Rhodes is doing a brilliant job. Let's hope it continues.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

We're not sitting still

Hey --

A few weeks ago, I shared with you that President Obama would declare 2014 a year of action, acting where he can to build an economy that ensures opportunity for all Americans. And he's already taken steps to achieve that goal in the areas of education and skills, job creation, energy, and raising the minimum wage.

I wanted you to be the first to know about new actions the President will take this week to keep that progress going.

This week, the President will announce new action on manufacturing, infrastructure, and transportation jobs, and a new initiative to ensure everyone who is willing to work hard has a shot at success.

Here's a sneak peek of how the President will use his pen and his phone this week:

Thanks for getting the word out,

Dan

Dan Pfeiffer
Senior Advisor
The White House
@Pfeiffer44

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Seth's Blog : The most important question

The most important question

It's not:

Is my price low enough?

Is it reliable enough?

Do I offer enough features?

Am I on the right social media channels?

Is the website cool enough?

Am I promising enough?

No, the most important question in marketing something to someone who hasn't purchased it before is,

"Do they trust me enough to believe my promises?"

Without that, you have nothing.

If you have awareness but people haven't bought from you before, it's likely they don't trust you as much as you would hope. If you are extending from one business to another, it's also likely. In fact, if your value proposition is solid but sales aren't being made, look for trust issues.

Earn trust, earn trust, earn trust. Then you can worry about the rest.

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sâmbătă, 22 februarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Drought-Stricken California to Get No Irrigation Water; 17 California Communities Could Run Dry; Higher Food Prices Expected; Is Shutting Off Irrigation Water a Good Idea?

Posted: 22 Feb 2014 07:35 PM PST

As the California Farm Drought Crisis Deepens, a federal agency rules agricultural heartland won't get any federal irrigation water this summer.

In a move that will likely signal higher food prices nationally, a federal agency says California's drought-stricken Central Valley — hundreds of thousands of acres of the most productive farmland in the U.S. — won't get any irrigation water this summer.

Friday's announcement by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation follows an earlier warning of no irrigation deliveries from the California State Water Project and leaves Central Valley farms and cities with only wells and stored water to get through the worst drought since the state began keeping records in the 1800s.

Statewide, some 8 million acres of farmland rely on federal or state irrigation water.

California Gov. Jerry Brown has declared a state of emergency following reports that the water content of snow in Northern California's Sierra Nevada, whose spring runoff is stored in reservoirs and moved by canals to other areas of the state, stands at 29% of normal.

The announcement is significant because California is the largest U.S. agriculture producer. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's most recent California Agricultural Statistics for the 2012 crop year, the state remains the leading state in cash farm receipts, with more than 350 commodities representing $44.7 billion, or 11% of the U.S. total, in 2012. Over a third of the U.S.'s vegetables and almost two-thirds of its fruits and nuts were produced in California, the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service said in a report. The federal agency's announcement will particularly affect San Joaquin Valley farmers who are last in line to receive federal water, San Jose Mercury News reported, adding that many farmers will have to pump already overtaxed wells or leave fields fallow this year. Farmers will leave 500,000 acres of fallow this year, the paper quoted Mike Wade, executive director of the California Farm Water Coalition, as saying.

17 California Communities Could Run Dry in 100 Days

SFGate reports California drought: communities at risk of running dry.

It is a bleak roadmap of the deepening crisis brought on by one of California's worst droughts - a list of 17 communities and water districts that within 100 days could run dry of the state's most precious commodity.

The threatened towns and districts, identified this week by state health officials, are mostly small and in rural areas. They get their water in a variety of ways, from reservoirs to wells to rivers. But, in all cases, a largely rainless winter has left their supplies near empty.

In the mountain town of Lompico in Santa Cruz County, the creek that provides the community with water has run dry, while three wells that tap an underground aquifer aren't drawing as much as usual.

The water district has required its 1,200 or so customers to scale back water use by 30 percent to preserve what little water it has, but officials aren't sure the conservation targets are realistic.

"Here's the problem: We live in the Santa Cruz Mountains. People don't have lawns. They don't have gardens. How are they going to conserve 30 percent?" said Lois Henry, president of the Lompico Water District board.

Is Shutting Off Irrigation Water a Good Idea?

Of course it is. It was a bad idea to provide subsidies to water the desert in the first place.

California grows a lot of food. Much of it is because of subsidies that overcharge residential customers for the benefit of farm owners.

Might food prices go up?

Perhaps. So what? You cannot water the desert with water that does not exist.

I have a better idea: eliminate tariffs, crop supports, and all subsidies. We can get peppers, onions, tomatoes, and other produce and fruit items from places that do not have US taxpayer subsidies.

Activists will howl "other countries subsidize farmers". Without a doubt many do. An if so, it will be at their expense, not US taxpayer expense.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ukraine Parliament Impeaches Yanukovich Who Fled Kiev in 'Coup'; Opposition Leader Freed from Prison; Elections Called

Posted: 22 Feb 2014 01:09 PM PST

Yet another Ukraine truce lasted all but a few hours. Civilian stormed the presidential palace Saturday morning and now control most of it.

President Viktor Yanukovych fled Kiev and is now in an Eastern Ukraine city closer to Russia.

Ukraine's Leader Flees the Capital; Elections Called

The New York Times reports Ukraine's Leader Flees the Capital; Elections Called.

Abandoned by his own guards and reviled across the Ukrainian capital but still determined to recover his shredded authority, President Viktor F. Yanukovych fled Kiev on Saturday to denounce what he called a violent coup, as his official residence, his vast, colonnaded office complex and other once impregnable centers of power fell without a fight to throngs of joyous citizens stunned by their triumph.

In the capital, protesters carrying clubs and some wearing masks were in control of the entryways to the presidential palace Saturday morning, and watched as thousands of citizens strolled through the grounds, gazing in wonder at the mansions, zoo, golf course and enclosure for rare pheasants, set in a birch forest on a bluff soaring above the Dnieper River.

With nobody clearly in charge, other than the so far remarkably disciplined fighting squads set up to protect a protest encampment in Independence Square, the Ukrainian capital and even the whole country faced a potentially dangerous power vacuum.

With security officers having disappeared from the streets, protesters claimed to have established control over Kiev. By Saturday morning they had secured key intersections of the city and the government district of the capital, which riot police officers had fled, leaving behind burned military trucks, mattresses and heaps of garbage at the positions they had occupied for months. There was no sign of looting, either in the city or in the presidential compound.

Ukraine Parliament Impeaches Yanukovich

Reuters reports Ukraine Parliament Removes Yanukovich, Who Flees Kiev in 'Coup'

Ukraine's parliament voted on Saturday to remove President Viktor Yanukovich, who abandoned his Kiev office to protesters and denounced what he described as a coup after a week of fighting in the streets of the capital.

Parliament also freed his arch-nemesis, former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who walked free from the hospital where she had been jailed, completing a radical transformation in the former Soviet republic of 46 million people.

The apparent toppling of the pro-Russian leader, after bloodshed in Kiev that saw 77 people killed and the center of the capital transformed into an inferno, looks likely to pull Ukraine away from Moscow's orbit and closer to Europe.

Members of the Ukrainian parliament, which decisively abandoned Yanukovich after this week's bloodshed, stood, applauded and sang the national anthem after it declared the president constitutionally unable to carry out his duties and set an early election for May 25.

"This is a political knockout," opposition leader and retired world boxing champion Vitaly Klitschko told reporters.

Ukraine's parliamentary speaker said Yanukovich had been prevented from boarding a plane to Russia and was now in the Donetsk region, Interfax news agency reported.

Despite his defiance, the dismantling of his authority seemed all but complete, with his cabinet promising a transition to a new government, the police declaring themselves behind the protesters and his arch-rival Tymoshenko going free.

The release of Tymoshenko transforms Ukraine by giving the opposition a single leader and potential future president, although Klitschko and others also have claims.

The 53-year-old known for her distinctive blonde braid was jailed by a court under Yanukovich over a natural gas deal with Russia she arranged while serving as premier before he took office. The EU had long considered her a political prisoner, and her freedom was one of the main demands it had for closer ties with Ukraine during years of negotiations that ended when Yanukovich abruptly turned towards Moscow in November.

She had served as a leader of the "Orange Revolution" of mass demonstrations which overturned a fraudulent election victory for Yanukovich in 2004, but after a divisive term as prime minister she lost to him in an election in 2010.

Live Updates

The Guardian has live updates at this link: Ukraine: Tymoshenko freed as president denounces coup - live updates

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Time to Lift the Minimum Wage and Give America a Raise

Featured

Weekly Address: Time to Lift the Minimum Wage and Give America a Raise

President Obama says this is a year of action, and he will do everything he can to restore opportunity for all. The President already lifted the wages for federal contract workers, and he calls on the American people to tell Congress to finish the job by boosting the federal minimum wage for all workers to $10.10 and give America a raise.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Weekly Wrap Up

FLOTUS and Fallon, Together Again

Last night, the First Lady dropped by "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon" to congratulate Jimmy on his new gig and celebrate the fourth anniversary of her Let's Move! initiative.

As the First Lady says in this clip from her interview, "show us how you're moving." Use the #LetsMove on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Vine to show her how you move and "if we get enough of a response, we'll have a little surprise... the President, and maybe the Vice President, will show us how they move."

READ MORE

President Obama Travels to Mexico

The President met with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper in Toluca, Mexico on Wednesday for this year’s North American Leaders’ Summit.

President Obama spoke about the importance of strengthening our "already incredible" relationship with our fellow North American nations and how that relationship improves job creation and security.

In response to the We The People petition to Restore Net Neutrality By Directing the FCC to Classify Internet Providers as "Common Carriers", The White House reaffirmed it's commitment to net neutrality and reminded us that President Obama has embraced the principle of net neutrality since his days as a U.S. Senator.

As you can see in this week's West Wing Peek, while touring the Michigan Biotechnology Institute last Friday, President Obama viewed examples of a highly innovative potato breeding project, aimed at increasing nutritional value and disease resistance. That meant: potato chips!

The President traveled to a Safeway Distribution Center in Maryland to announce some big news about big trucks.

President Obama directed the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Transportation to develop new fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty trucks that will lead to lower emissions and fuel savings for drivers.

As always, to see even more of this week's events, watch the latest episode of West Wing Week: