Central Perk

sâmbătă, 24 mai 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Former Bundesbank Vice-President Recommends Gold, Says Current Economic System is "Pure Fiction"

Posted: 24 May 2014 09:43 PM PDT

Anyone who is thinking clearly knows the economic system fostered by central banks is totally and completely out of control.

Repetitive rounds of QE, competitive currency debasement, interest rates at zero, and sponsorship of the internet bubble followed by the housing bubble, followed by the current stock market bubble is proof enough.

So, what I am about to report is really nothing but common sense, except for the fact that it comes from an unusual place, where one does not normally hear such discussions.

Jürgen Stark, former vice president of the Bundesbank, and also former chief economist of the ECB (unofficial title) says "The System is Out of Control". Via translation from Libre Mercado, here are a few snips.

Stark, until recently one of the big hawks central bank of Germany for his fierce defense of monetary orthodoxy, resigned in late 2011 for his outright rejection to the purchase of government bonds by the ECB launched the president of the institution Jean Claude Trichet. Since then, Stark has used his rare, but valuable public appearances to warn of the risks associated with the current policy of central banks to the crisis.

In a conference organized by the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Germany, recommended to protect the attendees directly against a probable collapse of the global monetary system. Stark spoke openly.

Stark noted that central banks, including the ECB, "have completely lost all ability to control and perspective on the economic situation."

The monetary system was saved in 2011 through concerted action by major central banks worldwide. But, according to Stark, the whole system is "pure fiction". The monetary authorities have been groping since 2008 to avoid a second Lehman Brothers, but if happen, "the system will not survive," he warned.

The problem is the monetary model itself. That is, the printing of paper currency without real backing and the multiplier by which the commercial banks can expand credit-uncontrolled without prior savings. Stark recommended allocating part of this fictional savings to investment in traditional "safe havens" such as gold or silver.

Also, in another lecture delivered last week in Paris, Stark noted that the fragile recovery in Europe is not due to the absence of monetary and fiscal stimuli (low rates, debt purchase, etc..) and (more government spending) but the slow deleveraging and lack of structural reforms.

Far from helping, the loose monetary policy of the ECB is hampering the recovery, as advanced free market on multiple occasions. The key to growth, create jobs and end the crisis on solid foundations, as Stark, is to increase competitiveness. And to do so, "we must continue gaining flexibility. Progress has been made, but still not enough. The situation has improved, but the crisis is not over."

"the probability of default, as is reflected in the markets are too low," he added. The expert was critical of the downside risks caused by the fall in spreads and insurance against default (CDS), as attributes, especially the artificial ECB action.

"Capital appreciation has grown stronger euro. But the crisis markets are distorted. We should not be too happy with what happened," he mused.

System is Pure Fiction

Stark is preaching to the choir, but it is appreciated. One does not normally hear such statements from central bankers or even ex-central bankers.

That said, his statements would carry more weight if he was still with the Bundesbank. I wish Stark never left.

Supposedly Stark Left for Personal Reasons but it's easy to discern he was fed up with being the only member of the ECB with a clue.

You can only beat your head against the wall so many times before you lose all sense of hope and finally your mind.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Regulator Fines Barclays for Gold Manipulation: Permanent Price Suppression?

Posted: 24 May 2014 09:30 AM PDT

A couple of readers asked me to comment on the news Regulator Fines Barclays Over the Pricing of Gold.

A British financial regulator has fined Barclays $43.9 million after accusing a former trader at the bank of improperly influencing gold prices at the expense of a customer.

The F.C.A. also fined the former Barclays trader, Daniel James Plunkett, £95,600 and barred him from participating in any regulated financial activity. The authority said Mr. Plunkett, who settled with it, had profited at the expense of a customer, who was later fully compensated by Barclays.

Mr. Plunkett's improper conduct occurred on June 28, 2012, the day after the regulator and United States authorities announced a $450 million fine against Barclays for improperly influencing global benchmark interest rates, including the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, the regulator said.

"A firm's lack of controls and a trader's disregard for a customer's interests have allowed the financial services industry's reputation to be sullied again," Tracey McDermott, the F.C.A. director of enforcement and financial crime, said in a statement. "Traders who might be tempted to exploit their clients for a quick buck should be in no doubt — such behavior will cost you your reputation and your livelihood."

The process of setting the benchmark price for gold in London dates to 1919. It is set twice a day by five banks that serve as market makers, according to the London Bullion Market Association. Those banks are Barclays, Société Générale, Deutsche Bank, Scotiabank and HSBC.

The silver fixing process in London, which has only three participating banks, is set to end in August after Deutsche Bank leaves the panel.

Deutsche Bank said this year that it would withdraw from fixing gold and silver prices as part of its plan to exit some commodities businesses because of regulatory concerns.

On Friday, the F.C.A. accused Mr. Plunkett, a director on the Barclays precious metals desk, of placing orders intended to drive down the price of gold during the 3 p.m. fixing period in London on June 28, 2012. Doing so allowed Barclays to avoid a $3.9 million payment to customer on an options contract that was tied to the price of gold during that period, the regulator said.

As a result, Mr. Plunkett's trading book, excluding hedging, recorded a profit of $1.75 million. Mr. Plunkett was responsible for pricing products linked to the price of precious metals and managing Barclays's exposure to those products.

Gold Manipulation Details

ZeroHedge has specific details of what took place in "I Am Hoping For A Mini Puke": Details Of Barclays' Gold Manipulation

LIBOR Manipulation, Euribor manipulation

Barclays was the first to admit guilt in manipulating LIBOR, but numerous banks were guilty. The BBC has an interesting article on the Timeline of the Libor-Fixing Scandal.

The Financial Times notes Euribor manipulation involving HSBC, JPMorgan and Crédit Agricole. For details, please see Brussels Charges Banks for Euribor Fixing.

Surprising?

No one should be shocked by this. Manipulation occurs all the time, in both directions, by all the big players, in numerous markets.

Guess what would have happened if Plunkett's client had $10 million in PUTs betting the price of gold would have declined. Does anyone think Plunkett would not have done what he could to force the price of gold up?

Although the recent spikes at illiquid times have been to the downside, details of how that "fixing" occurred, still support my two basic theories.

The Fed is not behind the manipulation
The motive is profit, not a permanent price-suppression conspiracy

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Paying Tribute to Our Fallen Heroes this Memorial Day

Featured

Weekly Address: Paying Tribute to Our Fallen Heroes this Memorial Day

In this week's address, President Obama commemorated Memorial Day by honoring the brave men and women in uniform who have given their lives in service to our country. As we stand with our veterans and military families this weekend, the President underscored our commitment to uphold our nation's sacred trust with our veterans and ensure they get the benefits and opportunities they deserve and have earned.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Seth's Blog : To be seen

To be seen

A recent article outlines how NFL cheerleaders are paid less than minimum wage, disrespected and treated quite poorly. So why do they put up with this lousy behavior?

In many ways, the appeal is an extension of what we were taught in high school. To be seen, to be noticed, to be picked. Even more than that, it's part of the human condition: To be part of something, in a small way, to matter.

Despite the obvious inequity of working for free for billionaires to celebrate players paid millions on behalf of advertisers earning even more, despite the conditions and the insults, people keep trying out to be picked by the team. For now.

The shift that's happening due to the long-tail open nature of new media, though, is that it's easier than ever to pick yourself and to be seen (even if it's not on national TV). It's easier than ever to start your own dance troupe, to build a group that will travel to cheer enthusiastically, for hire. It's easier than ever for anyone to be seen in videos or heard in podcasts or read online.

The fascinating lesson about human nature is that people aren't always driven by a rational analysis of work as an exchange of labor for cash. We want to be seen and we seek to belong. It's a shame when an organization takes advantage of that and treats people unfairly.

When we offer people a chance to matter and to be seen, we have the chance to offer them something magical.

• Email to a friend •

vineri, 23 mai 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Are Mortgage Credit Conditions "Tight"?
New Home Sales "Better, Not Strong", and Regionally Very Uneven: US +6.7%, Midwest +47.4%, Northeast -26.7%
Amazon to Increase Robots from 1,400 to 10,000 by End of 2014; Day in the Life of a Robot

Are Mortgage Credit Conditions "Tight"?

Posted: 23 May 2014 02:49 PM PDT

A statement in regards to credit condition in a Bloomberg article this morning on New Home Sales caught my attention and merits further investigation.

Here is the statement in question: "Builder optimism has eased as well, reflecting still-tight credit conditions and limited availability of lots. Confidence dropped in May to the lowest level of the year, according to a gauge of builder sentiment from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo."

Let's investigate the claim of "still-tight credit conditions".

Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Credit for Prime Mortgages

Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Credit for Subprime Mortgages

Unfortunately there are gaps in this data series.

Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Credit for Nontraditional Mortgages

Credit conditions for prime mortgages are anything but tight. There is tightening in the subprime arena, but gaps in the data series make it difficult to discern from when and were.

Moreover, after these price runups, banks should be concerned about subprime!

There is some tightening in non-traditional loans, but overall, the claim of "still tight" mortgage lending is false.

For more on housing, please see ...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

New Home Sales "Better, Not Strong", and Regionally Very Uneven: US +6.7%, Midwest +47.4%, Northeast -26.7%

Posted: 23 May 2014 09:58 AM PDT

The Census Bureau Residential Home Sales report shows Sales of new single-family houses in April 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000.

Sales are 6.4 percent (±15.9%) above the revised March rate of 407,000, but is 4.2 percent (±14.2%) below the April 2013 estimate of 452,000.

Supply is 5.3 months at the current rate of sales.

"Better, Not Strong"

Bloomberg reports Purchases of New U.S. Homes Increase by Most in Six Months but the details (shown below) are interesting.

Purchases of new U.S. homes rose in April by the most in six months as buyers began to respond to falling mortgage rates.

"The deep freeze is over and I think we can expect new home sales to continue to rise," said David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance in Columbus, Ohio, who projected a 432,000 rate of April sales. "It's better; it's still not strong."

New-home sales, which account for about 7 percent of the residential market, are tabulated when contracts are signed, making them a timelier barometer than transactions on existing homes.

New Home Sales by Region (in thousands)

Year	Month	United States	Northeast	Midwest	South	West	Month's Supply
2013(r)	January	453	31	58	222	142	3.9
	February	448	38	67	209	134	4.1
	March	440	33	61	237	109	4.2
	April	452	32	62	260	98	4.3
	May	431	25	70	238	98	4.5
	June	459	33	56	253	117	4.2
	July	367	32	53	190	92	5.6
	August	379	32	58	206	83	5.5
	September	399	25	60	220	94	5.5
	October	450	32	68	264	86	4.9
	November	445	33	57	243	112	5.0
	December	442	25	60	251	106	5.1
2014	January (r)	457	30	51	256	120	5.0
	February (r)	437	24	57	261	95	5.1
	March (r)	407	30	57	228	92	5.6
	April (p)	433	22	84	235	92	5.3

Take a good look at that last line. The surge in new homes is entirely in the Midwest. Didn't the Northeast have bad weather? Perhaps the bad weather lingered on in the Northeast. Alternatively, perhaps the Midwest was the most undervalued area.

Regardless of reason, this huge distortion should not inspire much national confidence.

Percent Changes and 90% Confidence Levels

Percentage Change	United States	Northeast	Midwest	South	West	Month's Supply
April 2014 from March 2014	6.4%	-26.7%	47.4%	3.1%	0.0%	-5.4%
90% Confidence Interval	± 15.9	± 37.2	± 64.1	± 19.5	± 24.1	± 15.8
April 2014 from April 2013	-4.2%	-31.3%	35.5%	-9.6%	-6.1%	23.3%
90% Confidence Interval4	± 14.2	± 31.2	± 42.4	± 19.5	± 18.2	± 22.3

Year-over-year, the US is down, the South is down, the Northeast is down, and the West is down. Only the Midwest is up.

And please note the exceptionally wide confidence levels for Midwest sales.

The Census bureau adds these additional notes "Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement. It takes 3 months to establish a trend for new houses sold. Preliminary new home sales figures are subject to revision due to the survey methodology and definitions used. The survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits. Since a "sale" is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed, this can occur prior to a permit being issued. An estimate of these prior sales is included in the sales figure. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate of total sales is revised about 4 percent. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our web site listed above."

Because of the wide deviation from norm, the census bureau does not have much confidence in the Midwest number. Again, for whatever reason, the Midwest was unusual to say the least. But don't expect most of mainstream media to offer these kind of cautions, and certainly don't expect them to do anything but cheer the increase in sales while also assuming a one-month change in one region translates into a trend change for the country.

As with existing home sales, there is little or nothing that suggests a trend change is at hand. Please see Existing Home Sales "Rebound": Headline Hype vs. Reality for additional details.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Amazon to Increase Robots from 1,400 to 10,000 by End of 2014; Day in the Life of a Robot

Posted: 23 May 2014 12:32 AM PDT

Have a job moving stuff or filling orders in a warehouse? If so, your job is in jeopardy.

Please consider Bezos expects 10,000 robots at Amazon warehouses by 2015

Amazon.com plans to aggressively expand its use of robots at it warehouses in 2014, rolling out 10,000 of them by the end of 2014.

Chief Executive Jeff Bezos told investors at Amazon's annual shareholders meeting Wednesday that the company has about 1,000 robots picking products today.

The robots are made by Kiva Systems, a company Amazon purchased two years ago for $775 million in a bid to further automate its warehouses. Last October, the company said it had deployed 1,382 robots in three warehouses.

Day in the Life of a Robot

In the following video, Kiva Systems founder and CEO Mick Mountz narrates a play-by-play video of how Kiva robots automate a warehouse environment. The video is actually from 2011.

Link if video does not play: A Day in the Life of a Kiva Robot. The video is quite interesting. Inquiring minds will want to give it a play.

Considering what money-losing IPOs are going for these days, Jeff Bezos appears to have gotten a bargain for $775 million.

Here's the question of the day: What took Bezos so long for mass deployment?

Whatever the answer, Bezos clearly believes these robots are ready for full scale deployment. Can other online competitors be far behind?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com