Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Rebels Down Ukrainian Jet Killing 49; Last Ditch Negotiations to Prevent Ukraine Gas Shutoff Posted: 14 Jun 2014 08:03 PM PDT There are a couple of significant news items in Ukraine today, and both of them will hike tensions in the region. Earlier today Pro-Russia Rebels Down Ukraine Jet as Fighting Escalates. Pro-Russian rebels shot down a transport plane in eastern Ukraine, killing 49 servicemen and threatening to ratchet up east-west tensions over suspicions President Vladimir Putin is backing the uprising. The killing of the 40 soldiers and nine crew was the deadliest strike on Ukrainian forces since separatists seized government buildings on April 6. The IL-76 aircraft went down as it approached Luhansk airport at 1:10 a.m. local time under anti-aircraft and machine-gun fire, authorities including the Kiev-based Prosecutor General's Office said today. The incident, which may fuel tensions between Moscow and Washington, Ukraine's main ally, came after the U.S. accused Moscow of sending heavy weapons, including old-model tanks and multiple-rocket launchers, to the rebels, who say they are fighting a war against fascism and to join Russia. Moscow is also threatening to cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. Last Ditch Negotiations to Prevent Ukraine Gas Shutoff Also note that Last-Ditch Russian Gas Talks to Resume. Ukraine, Russia and the European Union will start today a new round of talks to prevent cutoff of natural gas flows, as the downing of a military plane by pro-Russian rebels raised tensions in the east of the country. Ukraine and Russia have failed to reach an agreement in EU-brokered meetings since they started last month, with Russia declining to change the pricing mechanism and Ukraine rejecting a 20 percent discount offered by the Kremlin. "The aim is to continue the discussions on issues related to gas supplies from Russia to Ukraine, with the objective of finding a solution that secures stable deliveries," the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, said in a statement today in Brussels. The showdown over gas heaps pressure on Ukraine's new president Petro Poroshenko, who's struggling to fulfill an election pledge to halt an uprising by the rebels. Poroshenko announced a day of national mourning for tomorrow after rebels shot down the military transport plane as it approached Luhansk airport, killing 40 soldiers and nine crew. Ukraine refused to pay for gas supplies after Russia raised the price of the fuel by 81 percent in April. President Vladimir Putin stripped the country of a 2010 export-duty break that it exchanged for a lease on its Black Sea fleet's port in Crimea, which Russia annexed in March. The state-run natural-gas exporter Gazprom rescinded a price discount granted to Ukraine in December citing mounting debt. Ukraine must pay $1.95 billion by June 16 to partially cover its debt for past supplies, according to Gazprom. Prodan has said his country is ready to pay Russia once it sets a "fair" market-based price. A proposed government discount may be canceled at any time, he said. The EU suggested an interim price of $326 per 1,000 cubic meters, which Ukraine would accept, Naftogaz's Kobolyev told reporters in Kiev yesterday. Gazprom's final offer is $385, the Moscow-based company said yesterday. Apologies for the late reporting. Today was a the first anniversary of my marriage to Liz. We had a big party and I have been tied up all day. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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It's not 1960: Being a dad looks different now

Saturday, June 14, 2014   It's not 1960: Being a dad looks different now It's 2014, and our families -- and workforce -- look different than they have before. That means being a dad looks different than it ever has before. Just like moms, many dads don't have access to paid leave or flexible workplaces, making it harder to balance work and family. Here's what that looks like. Check it out, and pass it on. And if you've got a story to tell about working hard to balance work and family, we want to hear from you. Stay Connected     Facebook Twitter YouTube Flickr Google+       This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Sign Up for Updates from the White House Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

The President Wishes America's Dads a Happy Father's Day

Here's what's going on at the White House today.         DAILY SNAPSHOT Saturday, June 14, 2014             Featured Weekly Address: The President Wishes America's Dads a Happy Father's Day In this week's address, President Obama wished America's dads a happy Father's Day and underscored the crucial role fathers play in our society. The President encouraged Americans to support those living without a father figure through initiatives like My Brother's Keeper. He also highlighted actions he is taking on behalf of hardworking, responsible dads and moms, such as hosting the first-ever White House Working Families Summit later this month, and called on Congress to do its part to help offer more parents the chance to work hard and provide for their families. Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.       Top Stories "We don't settle. We outwork. We out-innovate. We out-hustle the competition." On Wednesday, President Obama delivered the commencement address at Worcester Technical High School and congratulated the graduates on their impressive accomplishments. In the President's remarks, he reminded them that none of their success could have happened without someone believing in them -- and because of that, he stressed the importance of giving back to their communities. The President closed his commencement address optimistic for the future of our country and our competitive spirit: When I meet young people like you I am absolutely certain we are not just going to out-compete the rest of the world, we are going to win because of you. Because we are Americans, that's what we do. We don't settle. We outwork. We out-innovate. We out-hustle the competition. And when we do, nobody can beat us. READ MORE Tumblr and the President What do GIFs, Tumblr, and President Obama have in common? Well, probably not that much. But when you bring them all together, you get the first-ever White House Tumblr Q&A. Didn't catch the event? You can watch the whole thing right here or at whitehouse.tumblr.com. READ MORE Making College Affordable On Monday, President Obama took another step to expand opportunity for all Americans, by making student loan debt more affordable and manageable to repay. The President signed a memorandum directing the Secretary of Education to propose regulations that would allow nearly 5 million federal direct student loan borrowers the opportunity to cap their student loan payments at 10 percent of their income. This is one of many efforts in the President's year of action -- a year in which he has already taken more than 20 steps to help the middle class and expand opportunity for all. READ MORE As always, to see even more of this week's events, watch the latest West Wing Week.   Facebook     Twitter    |   More Ways to Engage Did Someone Forward This to You? Sign Up for Email Updates This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Seth's Blog : Worldview and stories

 

Worldview and stories

Why did McDonald's post signs saying, "More than a billion sold"?

Why do some people pay big money to go to galas that support charities, but not donate otherwise?

Why was the guy on the plane yesterday reading The Fault is in Our Stars, years after it came out?

Why are some hipsters getting their tattoos removed?

What makes so many people vote against their long and short-term interests?

How come it's so easy to like or dislike a person, a brand or a politician before we even get to know much about them?

What's a fair price to pay for a decent bottle of wine?

Do doctors cure people more often than alternative medicine?

Is it worth owning a Leica?

When was the last time you took something out of the library?

Do you fly a flag outside of your house?

Enough with the facts and figures and features and benefits. They rarely move people into action. It's our worldview (the way we acted and believed and judged before we encountered you) and your story (the narrative we tell ourselves about who you and and what you do) that drive human behavior.

We make two giant mistakes as marketers:

We believe that everyone has the same worldview, that everyone in a group shares the same biases and expectations and dreams as everyone else... and,

We believe that the narrative is up for grabs, and we ought to just make the thing we make.

An accurate description of a worldview has nothing to do with you or your mission... it's the way a person acts without you in the room. In the case of McDonald's, it's the worldview of: I don't want to take a risk in this transaction, and one way to do that is to follow the crowd.

And the story is the (true) narrative that unlocks that worldview and turns it into action.

Tell me what your ideal customer believes, at the most emotional and primordial level, and then you can tell me the story you'll craft and live and deliver that engages with that belief.

       

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• New Rules for Iraqis: Repent or Die, Say 5 Daily Prayers, Women Not Allowed Outside; Grim Massacres
• No Money Down Mortgages Another Sign of Gigantic Credit Bubble in China
• Remaking Iraq

New Rules for Iraqis: Repent or Die, Say 5 Daily Prayers, Women Not Allowed Outside; Grim Massacres Posted: 13 Jun 2014 01:08 PM PDT Al Qaeda forces are within 50 miles of Baghdad. Some reports say 30 miles. Meanwhile,  al-Qaeda forces announce rules for Iraqi territory they now control: Repent or Die. The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham has set out a list of rules for residents of Mosul as it seeks to impose its Islamist rules on Iraq's second city. Referring to the area by its ancient name, Nineveh, the group says it has a clear set of instructions for the remaining occupants of the city and surrounding area. Firstly it tells "anyone who is asking," who its members are and what it is about: "We are soldiers of Islam and we've taken on our responsibility to bring back glory of the Islamic Caliphate." All Muslims in the city have been instructed to attend mosque for the five daily prayers. Any one of its members who breach this promise will have their hands cut off. No drugs, no alcohol and no cigarettes All shrines, graveyards and monuments will be destroyed All women must dress in concealing clothing that preserve decency. Females should only go outside "if necessary". Al Qaeda confirms that it seized up to half a billion dollars from the Mosul branch of the Bank of Iraq but states it can be trusted with the funds. ISIS Militants Push Towards Baghdad The Guardian has a Live Blog on the Iraq: reports ISIS Militants Push Towards Baghdad - Live. Interested parties can see gruesome images of heads being cut off and other atrocities on ZeroHedge. Mission Accomplished Thank George Bush for his nation building "mission accomplished". You can also thank former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, warmongers like John McCain, and Hillary Clinton and Democrats who authorized the war. Finally, please thank president Obama for making matters worse. This is what happens when the US goes about nation building, and messing around in the internal affairs of other countries. For further reading ... Iraq Before and After Assessing the Blame for Iraq: Bush, Obama, McCain, Others; Iraq Sunken Costs Remaking Iraq Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

No Money Down Mortgages Another Sign of Gigantic Credit Bubble in China Posted: 13 Jun 2014 08:51 AM PDT China bulls point out that that home prices in China are based on fundamentals and 30% down payments are proof there is no real estate bubble. In reality, much of those "cash" down payments are borrowed in various ways in China's shadow banking system, now estimated at $7 trillion. Bloomberg reports China No-Money-Down Housing Echoes U.S. Subprime Loan Risks China's home buyers are being offered no-money-down purchases in an echo of the subprime lending that triggered a U.S. economic meltdown and the global financial crisis. Deals skirting government requirements for minimum 30 percent down payments have emerged this year from Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the south to Beijing in the north as real-estate sales slump, according to state media and statements by government agencies and developers. "The risk is severe for developers and third parties because there is no commitment from home buyers," said Ding Shuang, senior China economist at Citigroup Inc in Hong Kong. "Zero down payment has appeared in the U.S. before. It basically enabled unqualified people to buy houses," said Ding, who used to work for the International Monetary Fund. "We need to see whether this will become widespread," Ding said. "For now, it seems still sporadic." Sales Sliding The practice threatens to add to the build-up of risks in China's $7 trillion shadow banking industry, with developers or third parties arranging funding to cover down-payment requirements, according to Shen Jianguang, Hong Kong-based chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. China's home sales slid 10.2 percent by value in the first five months of this year, the statistics bureau said today. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Property Index rose 0.3 percent as of 2:09 p.m. local time, paring this year's decline to about 4 percent. In Guangzhou, in the southern province of Guangdong, nearly 20 housing developments rolled out no-down-payment plans to boost sales, Nanfang Daily, Guangdong's official Communist Party newspaper, reported in April, as government agencies in Guangzhou and Shenzhen issued warnings against the practice. "'Zero down payment' can't solve home buyers' problems of shortages of funds, and it has to rely on unconventional practices such as paying the down payment for the customer at high interest, or fraudulently inflating the property price to swindle banks out of loans," the Urban Planning Land and Resources Commission of Shenzhen Municipality said in an April 10 statement. Shadow Banking Credit data released yesterday showed the government reining in shadow banking while allowing higher bank lending to support a faltering economy. New yuan loans exceeded forecasts at 870.8 billion yuan ($140 billion) for May. Poly Real Estate Group Co. is letting buyers delay full down payments at its Central Park development in southeastern Nanjing city, the official China News Service reported June 6. Buyers can pay deposits of 50,000 yuan and then 15 percent of the home price in three months' time. The smallest unit is about 70 square meters and costs about 1.2 million yuan, the report said. Widespread "We need to see whether this will become widespread," Ding said. I propose it already has, that cash down payments are borrowed from friends and families, and besides, China's property bubble is headed for a bigger collapse than 30%. The price of these homes is insane compared to income levels. In that regard, the China bubble is far bigger than the US property bubble. Marc Faber Sees `Gigantic' Credit Bubble in China Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, and Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, talk about U.S. initial public offerings by Chinese companies, the economy of China, the outlook for U.S. stocks and bonds, and investment strategy. They speak with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." Faber sees sharp slowdown in China growth, and a "gigantic credit bubble" in China, and a bubble in US equities. I agree on all counts. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Remaking Iraq Posted: 13 Jun 2014 12:59 AM PDT A critical reason nation building in Iraq was doomed to fail is easily seen in a History of Kurdistan. In the aftermath of World War I, allies drew borders paying no attention to cultural boundaries, assigning Kurdish areas to the new British and French mandated states of Iraq and Syria. Lovely. So if you do not want to blame Bush, then blame the British. Regardless of who you blame, here is the reality at the moment: Kurdish forces step into security void in disputed Kirkuk Beaming Kurdish fighters were dropped by the busload on the outskirts of Kirkuk on Thursday, eager to defend a city they say is on its way to becoming part of their autonomous region after the Iraqi army left. "The Iraqi army didn't argue, they didn't fight. They left behind their weapons. They didn't even take their uniforms," said Tayeb Younis, a young member of the peshmerga, the autonomous Kurdish region's forces. "We are thrilled – this is a first step to [the city] becoming part of the Kurdish Regional Government." The sudden withdrawal of the central government's army from Kirkuk is another sign of how quickly Iraq could break up into separate sectarian territories of Shia, Sunni Arabs and Kurds. Since militants of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (known as Isis) seized Mosul on Tuesday, they have advanced to take control of an area that amounts to more than 10 per cent of the country. "The army has collapsed … it is our right to defend this area," said Rawan Mullah Mahmoud, deputy head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party in Kirkuk province. "Iraq has entered a dangerous period and this situation could last a year, at least." The Iraqi army base, the largest in Kirkuk province, had billions of dollars in weapons and equipment, locals say. "About 500 armoured vehicles have been stolen and another 200 were burnt inside," said Mr Younes, the peshmerga fighter, watching the looting frenzy nearby. "We cannot stop it because we don't want to seem like we support the [Iraqi] army, but this could cause problems with the other communities here," he said, referring to the Arab and Turkmen populations. But with Isis moving so quickly, one Arab shopkeeper, Hisham Hashem, said he would accept whoever could keep the streets outside his empty store quiet. "At this point it does not matter to me who takes control, whether it's the army or the peshmerga," he said. Hussein Had Control Recall that Saddam Hussein had control. Now shopkeepers beg for "anyone" to take control. Unfortunately, no one is in control as Iraq Splinters Into Pieces. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Damn Cool Pics

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• Your Favorite 90s TV Show Cast Members Today
• You Are Now Entering Brazil!
• The Housing Bounceback [Infographic]

Your Favorite 90s TV Show Cast Members Today Posted: 13 Jun 2014 11:38 AM PDT When you watch a TV show for long enough it's like the characters from your favorite show become your friends. See what your friends look like nowadays. Friends   Boy Meets World Full House Home Improvement Married With Children Saved By The Bell That 70s Show Roseanne Fresh Prince of Bel Air Frasier

You Are Now Entering Brazil! Posted: 13 Jun 2014 11:06 AM PDT Who would have every thought that Brazil could be so strange?

The Housing Bounceback [Infographic] Posted: 13 Jun 2014 09:31 AM PDT The housing market as it currently stands has been quite the uphill battle for some spectators, especially people who are trying to upgrade to a more lavish setting. That said, it would seem that in recent studies within the sector all is not lost within housing and the latest numbers suggest that the market is finally taking a turn for the greater good. The guys at Buy Homes Direct have noticed the difference too, and with that have created a new and intriguing infographic titled "The Housing Bounceback" which shows everyone exactly how well things have actually been from pre-recession to the age of today. For example, were you aware that most if not all regions saw a minimum growth spurt of 1.2%? And that Wales saw a similar amount of growth as both the South West and the West Midlands despite a large range of varied house prices? Read more about this below… Click on Image to Enlarge.   Via buyhomesdirect.co.uk

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