Central Perk

joi, 18 septembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Lesson of the Day: The Political Class Always Wins

Posted: 18 Sep 2014 09:45 PM PDT

With a ramp up in fearmongering led by financial institutions and every UK political party, the preliminary votes indicate Scottish Anti-Independence Campaign Poised for Victory in Vote.

With 26 of Scotland's 32 local authorities declared, the Better Together camp backed by Prime Minister David Cameron and the main U.K. parties had garnered 54 percent of the vote, while the "yes" campaign led by Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond had 46 percent.

"It does look like we have secured a 'no' vote," Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, a Liberal Democrat and the most senior Scot in the U.K. government, told Sky News as the first results trickled in. "But a 'no' vote is also for change, it's our responsibility to get on with that."

Looking Ahead

Via email, Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank writes ...

We have Quebec like situation in Scotland now – The independence talk is gone for now but the next item on the agenda politically is UK referendum next year where the independence and anti-EU vote will continue to play a role. 2017 is the big year, if the promised EU votes takes place……

EU did not do themselves any favors by ruling Scotland out of EU even before the election results was known. Scots, like danes, don't take outside pressure easy especially from something like the EU.

The main take away from macro perspective is the move towards very nationalistic and domestic driven political agendas. The EU and global agendas now plays 3rd violin as lack of growth and reforms become real issue.

The real economy is at least politically catching up to the artificial markets, so while the markets celebrate RISK ON again this morning, the politicians around Europe is taking notes: Change or lose your job! Just ask the Labor party in the UK who almost lost their ability to get back into government as 30 MP's would have been lost overnight with a Yes.

Steen Jakobsen

Lesson Learned

For the political class, this vote was far too close for comfort. Next time, there won't be a vote.

In the case of Spain, a Catalan vote for independence scheduled later this year will simply be declared illegal. Should the vote for independence fail, the vote would of course be accepted.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

ECB's Targeted Lending Spree Starts Out As Flop; Modern Monetary Insanity

Posted: 18 Sep 2014 11:17 AM PDT

Following on the "success" of the ECB's LTRO (Long Term Refinance Operation) which did nothing to spur lending and everything to create the biggest sovereign bond bubble the world has ever seen, ECB president Mario Draghi announced a TLTRO or Targeted LTRO on September 4.

The ECB's intent is to spur lending.

Lending Spree Short of Expectations

Today the Financial Times reports ECB's Lending Spree Short of Expectations.

The European Central Bank's first offer of cheap four-year loans has fallen short of expectations, dealing a blow to president Mario Draghi's hope of sustaining the eurozone's ailing economy by expanding the central bank's balance sheet.

Banks borrowed €82.6bn through the first of the ECB's Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations, or TLTROs, one of policy makers' big ideas to revive the currency area's recovery. A poll by Bloomberg earlier this week showed economists, on average, expected banks to bid for €174bn of loans from a maximum of €400bn.

Analysts said the disappointing take-up would pile pressure on the ECB to embark on large-scale government bond buying, or quantitative easing, before the end of this year. With inflation as low as 0.4 per cent in the year to August, the central bank is struggling to hit its inflation target of just below 2 per cent.

The TLTROs allow banks to borrow at a rate just above the ECB's main refinancing rate of 0.05 per cent until late 2018 so long as they meet targets for lending to businesses. If they miss the targets, they must pay the funds back in 2016.

The ECB will conduct another seven auctions, with the next TLTRO taking place in December. The central bank hopes the auctions, through which it will lend a maximum of €1tn over the next three years, will boost inflation and restart the region's flagging economic recovery by spurring lending to smaller businesses.

Why TLTRO Won't Spur Lending

Banks may eventually take the money. Why not? The only penalty is they have to pay it back in 2016 if they don't lend it. But taking money, and lending (more than one would have anyway), are two different things. For now, banks did not even take a big bite at the money.

For an explanations as to why TLTRO will not spur lending, please see ECB Pulls Out Bazooka, Cuts Rates, Buys Assets; Will this Stimulate Lending?

Modern Monetary Insanity

Central banks ought to be worried about asset bubbles and asset deflation, not price deflation on ordinary consumer goods. Nonetheless, central banks target prices even though they cannot push price inflation where they want it!

Asset deflation (more precisely loans that cannot be paid back as asset prices fall) not price deflation is what will cripple banks. Yet by targeting consumer prices with monetary inflation, they bring upon asset inflation then asset deflation which is precisely what they should seek to avoid.

From this perspective, the ECB is hell-bent on making the problem worse. It's modern monetary insanity.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Learn to Read Russian in 15 Minutes! [Infographic]
You Just Can't Fix Stupid
This Bear Does What It Wants

Learn to Read Russian in 15 Minutes! [Infographic]

Posted: 18 Sep 2014 12:45 PM PDT

Here's a really interesting and surprisingly simple breakdown of the Russian alphabet from writer Peter Starr Northrop and cartoonist Ryan Estrada. Give it a few minutes of your time and you'll be confidently sounding out Russian words by the end.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

You Just Can't Fix Stupid

Posted: 18 Sep 2014 10:25 AM PDT

Stop these people before they hurt themselves. They're too dumb to live.

This Bear Does What It Wants

Posted: 18 Sep 2014 10:05 AM PDT

Being a bear in Daytona Beach, Florida can get pretty tiring. Sometimes you need to take a break and there's no better place to do it than a hammock in some stranger's backyard.

President Obama Speaks About Our Plan on ISIL

Featured

President Obama Speaks About Our Plan on ISIL

At MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida yesterday, President Obama spoke to servicemen and women about the U.S. strategy to degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group ISIL.

"In a world where technology provides a small group of killers with the ability to do terrible harm, it is America that has the capacity and the will to mobilize the world against terrorists," the President said.

See the President's five key points about our strategy to defeat ISIL:

Five things you need to know about ISIL:

Five things you need to know about ISIL

President Obama spoke to service men and women at MacDill Air Force Base yesterday about the U.S. strategy to degrade and ultimately destroy ISIL -- a terrorist organization that is killing innocent, unarmed civilians in both Iraq and Syria. ISIL, also known as ISIS or the Islamic State, is also responsible for the brutal murders of American journalists Jim Foley and Steven Sotloff.

Here are the key points the President made yesterday regarding ISIL and our strategy to defeat their forces:

1. ISIL is threatening America and our allies.

Our intelligence community has not yet detected specific plots from ISIL against our homeland, but they have repeatedly threatened our core interests, including our personnel, our embassies, our consulates, and our facilities in Iraq, Syria, and in the broader Middle East. "If left unchecked, they could pose a growing threat to the United States," he said.

2. The U.S. continues to conduct targeted airstrikes against ISIL.

The U.S. Air Force has conducted more than 160 airstrikes against ISIL, successfully protecting our personnel and facilities, killing ISIL fighters, and giving space for Iraqi and Kurdish forces to reclaim key territory. "They've helped our partners on the ground break ISIL sieges; helped rescue civilians cornered on a mountain; helped save the lives of thousands of innocent men, women and children," the President said.

3. American forces that have been deployed to Iraq do not and will not have a combat mission.

"As your Commander-in-Chief, I will not commit you, and the rest of our Armed Forces, to fighting another ground war in Iraq," the President told servicemembers. Along with our airstrikes, U.S. forces will train, equip, advise, and assist local partners on the ground "so that they can secure their own countries' futures."

4. This is not and will not be America's fight alone.

The U.S. will lead a broad coalition of countries who have a stake in this fight. France and the UK are already flying with us over Iraq, and other countries have committed to join this effort. Saudi Arabia has agreed to host American efforts to train and equip Syrian opposition forces. Australia and Canada are going to send military advisors to Iraq, while Germany is sending paratroopers to help offer training. Arab nations have agreed to strengthen their support for Iraq's new government, a key ally in our strategy to defeat ISIL.

International partners will help us cut off ISIL funding, gather intelligence, and prevent foreign fighters from entering -- or leaving -- the Middle East. And nearly 30 nations have joined American humanitarian relief to help civilians, including Sunni, Shia, Christian, Yezidi, or other religious minorities, that ISIL has driven from their homes.

5. Congress should provide the authorities and resources the U.S. military needs to succeed.

The President has called on Congress to support our military with the necessary resources to train and equip Syrian opposition fighters. As he has said, America's leadership position is strongest when the President and Congress work together and show a united front.

"Sending our servicemembers into harm's way is not a decision I ever take lightly," the President said. "It is the hardest decision I make as President. Nothing else comes close."

But this strategy will require the best military force in the world:

Frankly, there just aren't a lot of other folks who can perform in the same ways -- in fact, there are none. And there are some things only we can do. There are some capabilities only we have. That's because of you -- your dedication, your skill, your work, your families supporting you, your training, your command structure. Our Armed Forces are unparalleled and unique. And so when we've got a big problem somewhere around the world, it falls on our shoulders. And sometimes that's tough. But that's what sets us apart. That's why we're America. That's what the stars and stripes are all about.

"In an uncertain world full of breathtaking change, the one constant is American leadership."

And, because of the strength and dedication of America's military, the President made clear that we will send an unmistakable message to ISIL:

Whether in Iraq or in Syria, these terrorists will learn the same thing that the leaders of al Qaeda already know: We mean what we say; our reach is long; if you threaten America, you will find no safe haven. We will find you eventually.

Outdated SEO Concepts People Still Think are Reality

Posted: 17 Sep 2014 05:21 PM PDT

Posted by katemorris

It's on the internet, so it's true.

The bane of the existence of all search marketers is old or incorrect information given to clients at any point in time that they still hang on to. This post was inspired by an interaction with a client's co-workers, people that are not thinking about SEO on a regular basis. This is not to knock them, but to bring to the attention of everyone that there is a continual need for education. These concepts have a way of hanging around.

And this isn't about just clients either. This is about friends, parents, and partners. Does anyone else still get asked if they make pop-up ads when they try to explain what they do? (Just me? Crap.)

Doing research for this post, I noticed there are a ton of SEO misconceptions out there, and people are talking about them regularly, but many are related to content marketing or online marketing overall. I'm not covering all misconceptions, but those concepts that seem to be stuck to the idea of SEO and will not let go. Then I'll give you resources to help educate the people that believe these misconceptions and alternate solutions to give them.

Putting text behind an image

The inspiration. The client is struggling with balancing revenue and content on the page. There is a large image on the page now and we suggested editing the page to add content about the product. The question was asked if we could just put the content behind the image and solve both problems.

My client stepped in and answered the question wonderfully, but it brought to mind how many times I've seen overstuffed alt text attributes and content in a noscript tag that doesn't match what's in the Flash.

Additional resource

A Comprehensive Guide to Hidden Text

Alternate solution

In this instance, we recommended putting text below the fold for the users that wanted the information and keeping the current image for returning users. Balance that satisfies both user needs and the business goals.

Copying a competitor's actions

This isn't as obvious as hiding text, but it's something that companies refuse to stop doing. It's the concept that if a competitor is doing something, it must be worth doing. This goes for competitors ranking above a business, but it also covers competitors that the business just dislikes. We all have those competitors we want to "beat" and sometimes that makes us do things that are not fully researched and planned.

Amazon.com is my biggest annoyance. I can't count how many times I've heard the reasoning "but Amazon does it" by major brands that other businesses look up to. Amazon, like most major companies, tests many things, and there is a different person behind each test. If you work for a large company, you understand what I mean.

Additional resource

Stop Copying Your Competitors, They Don't Know What They are Doing Either

Alternate solution

Everyone is on the hunt for the best results and bringing in new customers, retaining current customers, and making other stakeholders happy. The way you beat competitors is to listen to your stakeholders (customers, clients, partners, employees, investors) and make decisions based on their feedback as well as what is going on in the market.

Sheer number of links equals ranking

This has been debunked so many times it makes my head swim. That doesn't change how many people still think that the total number of links (as reported by a third party tool like Moz, Majestic, or AHREFs) is the sole factor in ranking. Want to do better in SERPs? Well, we need to hire someone to build us some links! I'm going to leave one screen shot here (Search: "insurance") and then we'll get into resources and solutions for when you have to face this.

Additional resource

Moz Search Ranking Factors

Alternate solution

This is more of an "additional solution," as links and mentions are still very important, but as seen above, it's far from the only factor in ranking. It's best to explain the different ranking factors like content relevance to the query, some social data, query deserves freshness, local, news, personalization, and all of the other things that can impact ranking. Focus on a marketing strategy that will not only result in links, but also send new customers through those links and engage the customers into lifelong evangelists.

A loss in traffic means you've been penalized

The next two are focused on the issue of penalties. So many people are afraid of being penalized. I think this goes back to the days of black marks in your school record. That or people are worried about losing revenue. Maybe that.

The media gets involved with SEO when there is a penalty and so that is what most people hear about. FTD and Overstock types of situations. Then disaster strikes and revenue falls unexpectedly. After some digging, they find that website traffic is down. This paired with emails business owners get at least once a quarter (in a good year) from fly by night SEO companies telling them they can help with SEO, promise the moon and warn of penalties.

The only logical conclusion is a penalty! We have all seen it and most reputable agencies pipelines are filled with leads from companies in this exact situation. The thing is that we never know if there is a penalty unless we dive into the situation, but I have seen times where there is no penalty.

Many things could have happened including:

A developer added a noindex tag to a section of the site when meaning to add it to one page or they disallowed that section.
The site was redesigned with URL changes that can drop the traffic coming into many sites if not done correctly.
PPC traffic stopped due to a corporate card expiring and not being updated.

Additional resource

Guide to Common SEO Penalties and How to Recover From Them

Alternate solution

Rather than paying the first person that will call you back, first look into what part of the site lost traffic and where that traffic was coming from in the past few months. Did you lose traffic from organic search, paid search, referral traffic, or social media? Try to narrow down what happened and figure it out from there. If you're sure it was organic search, look into the date and ask your developers if anything changed about the site. If nothing did, check Google Webmaster Tools for any messages from Google about a penalty. If you're sure it's organic search and there are no messages, that's a good time to contact a reputable agency.

Duplicate content can incur a penalty

I did a talk on this very topic a few years back at Pubcon. So many people don't take the time to understand what duplicate content is and how to fix it. More importantly, there is a misunderstanding that duplicate content can cause or is a penalty.

Most clients assume that having duplicate content will incur the "search engine gods' " wrath, and that just isn't true (for the most part; I mean, if your whole site is a copy of someone else's site ...). Duplicate content is a hindrance to site performance most of the time, but most likely not the cause for a substantial drop in traffic and definitely not a penalty from the search engines.

Additional resource

Google's Guidelines for Duplicate Content

Alternate solution

Don't fret. Take the time to visit Webmaster Tools regularly and check out your duplicated title tags and meta descriptions for an easy look into what might be causing duplicate content or crawling issues on your site. Maintenance is the best medicine!

A call to educate

We sometimes live in a bubble where we think people know everything we do and take for granted information like everything above. If someone asked you how to create a P&L Statement, could you? Maybe, maybe not, but you get what I mean. Take the time to answer questions, whether from clients or colleagues if you are in-house. You would be amazed how much more YOU can learn from teaching others.

So what are your horror stories? Let me know in the comments below!

Photo credits (all images are linked):

Internet Open by Blaise Alleyne
Hiding Cat by Aftab Uzzaman
Penalty by Daniele Zanni
Educate by Sean MacEntee

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joi, 18 septembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

President Obama Speaks About Our Plan on ISIL

Five things you need to know about ISIL:

Outdated SEO Concepts People Still Think are Reality