duminică, 1 februarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Cyborg Silliness; No Glory in Stupidity; If Jackasses Could Think

Posted: 01 Feb 2015 06:35 PM PST

On January 18, in Graves Waiting For Bodies: Major War Escalation in Ukraine; In 5 Weeks Ukraine Out of Money I noted the rebels captured the airport at Donetsk.

Donetsk Airport Battle is Over

Dreizin also informs me that "The battle for the Donetsk airport is over. The rebels expelled Ukraine's most elite units from their last redoubts in the new terminal building."

Also on January 18, Reuters reported Ukrainian Troops Retake Most of Donetsk Airport From Rebels.

Ukrainian troops recaptured almost all the territory of Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine they had lost to separatists in recent weeks, as thousands gathered in Kiev for a state-sponsored peace march on Sunday.

The offensive brought fighting close to the industrial city of Donetsk, centre of a pro-Russian rebellion, while shelling intensified in other parts of the region known as "Donbass".

Military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said "We succeeded in almost completely cleansing the territory of the airport, which belongs to the territory of Ukrainian forces as marked by military separation lines."

Colonel Cassad and Jacob Dreizin got the story correct. Western media outlets instead believe totally discredited sources in Kiev.

No Glory in Stupidity

On January 28, the LA Times reported How Ukraine's Outgunned 'Cyborgs' Lost Donetsk Airport.

Some of the LA Times report is accurate, albeit late.

Other parts seemed to glorify the "cyborgs" who "for 242 days, had held out against pro-Russia separatists who bombarded them from beyond the runways and prowled above and below them in the wreckage of the terminal."

In my view, there is no glory in stupidity. But there's even less in sheer madness.

Here are some snips from the LA Times article.

Brigade commander Col. Yevgeny Moysyuk noted "We couldn't get our tanks or armored vehicles there anymore because they had used the truce time to fortify all the side approaches and deploy all kinds of heavy weapons."

"We should have evacuated our men a few days earlier, then waited for the separs [separatists] to converge on the premises and bury them under the ruins," he said.

At one point, in a desperate bid to rescue his men, Moysyuk borrowed a couple of armored vehicles with drivers from another brigade. But the drivers refused to go into what they knew was a fiery hell. [smart decision]

So Moysyuk's own officers drove into the fog that had descended on the tarmac. Misled by the fog, they arrived at a different building, where they were surrounded by the enemy. The next day, the remaining paratroopers were ordered to attack the airport head-on.

"This is just sheer idiocy!" exclaimed an airborne battalion commander, Maj. Ruslan Prusov.

The man in charge of the operation, Col. Gen. Viktor Muzhenko, Ukraine's military chief of staff, was not inclined to share the pessimism of his subordinates. "A war doesn't proceed without casualties," Muzhenko said.

"The losses of the opposite side are far greater than ours, and we didn't lose the airport, as it just became the front line, that is all."

About a mile away, a doctor examined a large, bleeding wound on the top of a soldier's head. The man said he felt dizzy and the doctor asked him to wait so that he could put some stitches and bandages on it.

"Don't you think he should go to a hospital?" another soldier asked.

The doctor laughed. "If we send everyone with such wounds to a hospital," he said, "we will run out of men to fight the war with."

Lies No One Believes

Note the two lies in a single sentence by Col. Gen. Viktor Muzhenko: "The losses of the opposite side are far greater than ours, and we didn't lose the airport, as it just became the front line, that is all."

Those lies are so preposterous no one can possibly believe them.

The ending sentence to the above article is also worth repeating: "If we send everyone with such wounds to a hospital, we will run out of men to fight the war with."

What Really Happened

ON January 29, I posted a more accurate account of what happened and what's really going on in Ukraine.

In case you missed it, please consider Conscription of People, Cars, Businesses in Ukraine for Mindless Slaughter; Entire Villages Leave to Avoid Servitude; Hop on the Bus Gus.

The short version is conscription of cars, property, and people for the war effort. The smart citizens want no part of it. Entire villages have fled to Russia.

The above link contained a video that describes in detail what happened to the fool's mission to retake the airport.

I repeat it here with the same warning.

The video below is graphic and contains a lot of harsh language. The video is about captured Ukrainian POWs on a fool's mission to retake the Donetsk airport.

Warning aside, I recommend watching the video, entirely. Watch the scenes where locals confront the Ukrainian POWs. The video accurately portrays Ukrainians fighting Ukrainians, not Ukrainians fighting Russians.

Ukrainian POW's Face NAF Commander Givi and the Fury of Donetsk Residents

Link if Video Does not Play: UAF Storms Donetsk Airport and Gets Asses Handed to them by NAF.

Want a translation to Spanish, German, Dutch, Danish, or French? Go to Information Clearing House.

Civil War

This is a f*ing civil war, no more, no less. It is not our battle. It is an internal battle.

Yes, Russia is supporting the separatists. So what? Putin is not on a mission to take over Europe. Nor does he want to exterminate the Jews as a final solution. So please spare me the sap about Hitler and Chamberlain.

Ironically, the US sponsored the civil war in the first place taking sides in the ouster of the former Ukrainian president.

The second irony in these preposterous Putin-to-Hitler comparison is the simple fact the US supports neo-Nazis in Ukraine. (See Email From US Special Forces Veteran; 500 US Blackwater Mercenaries in Ukraine? US Backs Ukrainian Neo-Nazis)

No one has remotely bothered to understand Russia's legitimate concerns.

Just as the US did not want Russian missiles in Cuba, Russia does not want NATO on its border. Why is that so hard to understand?

Jackass Solutions

Unsurprisingly, jackasses at the Financial Times came out with this editorial: West must help Ukraine to defend itself against Russia.

Of course the Times only wants to send "defensive weapons". And if Russia responds? The jackasses then suggest "The US and its allies must intensify their financial assistance to the Kiev government."

Yes indeed, the jackass solution as always is to throw money at it. With Greece dangling in the air, let's "intensify financial assistance" to prolong wars.

If Jackasses Could Think

Instead of figuring out this is not remotely our battle, jackasses want to prolong the fighting with money and military equipment. This of course is expected.

If jackasses could think, they would not be jackasses.

With that, I will conclude this post the same way I did on January 29. ....

Hop on the Bus Gus

In honor of Ukrainian citizens smart enough to disavow the "Small Price Theory" and willing to tell their government to F* off, I offer this musical tribute.

Link if Video does not Play: 50-Ways Paul Simon

Hop on the bus Guss
Don't need to discuss much
Just drop off the keys Lee
And get yourself free!

No one has the right to own you. No one. No government. Ever!

To disagree with the above is to support forced slavery.

This War is Over

The Vietnam war ended when public support turned against it, even though fighting continued long after.

The same applies here. Hearts and minds have been lost along with the will to fight. Ukraine is split in two, barring a major military intervention by the US.

Even though the war is over, the fighting can continue. How much longer the battles go on now depends on the US and IMF.

The US can fund the bloodshed for a while longer and so can the IMF. US war-mongers may decide no price is too high to pay, even to the absurd point of engaging Russia directly.
The US and IMF can force true peace negotiations on Kiev with a partition or federation of the country. But, what may have been acceptable to the separatists and Russia six months ago may no longer be so.

Either way, Ukraine is never going to be a single country again. Such is the madness of arbitrarily drawing borders with no regard to cultural, political, or religious beliefs.

The war is over. Kiev lost, even with the backing of the US. Let the peace process begin before more lives are lost and more needless destruction occurs.

I authorize translation and republication of this individual article, to any language, on any site, as long as it contains a link back to this article.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

More Obama Dead-on-Arrival Tax Proposals

Posted: 01 Feb 2015 01:58 PM PST

Is there a point to beating your head against a concrete wall? The answer would seem to be "no", yet President Obama continues to do just that with dead-on-arrival proposals.

Please consider Barack Obama Plans to Tax Overseas Cash Piles.

President Barack Obama will propose raising $238bn by levying a one-off tax on the cash piles held by US companies overseas to repair the US's crumbling roads and bridges.

The measure, a key plank of the US president's budget to be outlined on Monday, would impose a 14 per cent "transition" tax on the estimated $2tn in earnings US companies have amassed overseas, the White House said on Sunday.

Critics say the existing offshore cash mountains testify to the aggressive foreign tax planning by US companies, while businesses cite them as evidence of the handicaps they face under an uncompetitive US tax regime.

Mr Obama will also propose a 19 per cent tax on future foreign earnings, giving companies a credit on foreign taxes and allowing them to be reinvested in the US with no additional penalty. Under the current system, US companies pay little or no tax on their earnings abroad until they are brought back into the US.

The money raised would be used to fund about half of an ambitious six-year programme of highway, bridge and transit upgrades, one of the president's main priorities during his final two years in office and an initiative that has attracted some degree of bipartisan support. The remainder of the programme would be financed by the existing highway fund.

"This transition tax would mean that companies have to pay US tax right now on the $2tn they already have overseas, rather than being able to delay paying any US tax indefinitely," a White House official said.

Wall of Dispute

Critics say the existing offshore cash mountains testify to the aggressive foreign tax planning by US companies.
Businesses cite aggressive tax planning as evidence of the handicaps they face under an uncompetitive US tax regime.

Curiously, both statements are true. And the president's plan does nothing to fix the fundamental problem.

US tax code encourages capital flight. So, corporations do just that, effectively wasting a mountain of money on lawyers and tax schemes in the process. Then, US corporate profits sit abroad, waiting for repatriation holidays which inevitably come every time there is an economic slowdown.

Mish Proposal

The initial problem is US corporate tax rates are too high. I propose cutting them to zero. Were that to happen, instead of US businesses sheltering money overseas, foreign corporations would setup offices in the US, moving as much here as they can.

I believe growth in economic activity would far outweigh any lost revenue.

In spite of obvious merit, my proposal would never fly. The president would veto it. So how about a more modest corporate flat-tax with no loopholes, at a rate far lower than most of Europe?

Such a proposal would immediately end all this bickering on both sides. Republicans would get what they want (lower taxes). And Obama would get something he wants (ending foreign tax loopholes).

Instead, he proposes dead-on-arrival ideas.

Does Obama love beating his head against the wall with zero-chance proposals? If he's attempting to pound some sense into his head, it's clearly not working.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Almost no one

Almost no one

There's a huge difference between "no one" and "almost no one".

Almost no one is going to hire you.

Almost no one is going to become a true fan.

Almost no one is going to tell someone else about your work.

Almost no one is going to push you to make your work ever better.

If only 1% of the US population steps up, that's 3,000,000 people in the category of "almost no one."

If only one out of 10,000 internet users engages with you, that's still hundreds of thousands of people.

The chances that everyone is going to applaud you, never mind even become aware you exist, are virtually nil. Most brands and organizations and individuals that fail fall into the chasm of trying to be all things in order to please everyone, and up reaching no one.

That's the wrong thing to focus on. Better to focus on and delight almost no one.

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sâmbătă, 31 ianuarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Diving Into the GDP Report - Some Ominous Trends - Yellen Yap - Decoupling or Not?

Posted: 31 Jan 2015 05:02 PM PST

Yellen Yap

On Thursday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen met with Senate Democrats at a private luncheon. She told the Democrats that the U.S. Economy is Strong.

My first thought was "what the heck is Yellen doing holding a private lunch with Democrats only?" Had she met with Senate Republicans, I would have asked the same question.

Apparently this is common procedure for Yellen, so perhaps I am reading too much into it.

Yet, I cannot help wondering if the real purpose of the meeting was to persuade Democrats to block any "Audit the Fed" Initiatives.

Glowing Report

Regardless of the reason, Yellen had some pretty glowing things to say.

"She went through the issues of unemployment and inflation. Very positive. And economic growth numbers were good, have been good. There's work to be done," Sen. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) said after the luncheon.

No Rate Hike Soon

Bloomberg reported Yellen Tells Senators No Rate Rise Soon Amid Concerns Abroad.

"Her message is that the economy's getting better but there's still a ways to go in terms of job creation," New York Senator Charles Schumer said today in an interview on Capitol Hill. "That worry seems, in her mind, to be paramount and that's why she is not going to raise rates immediately."

The Fed upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy in a statement on Wednesday after a meeting of its policy-setting committee, while adding a reference to "international developments" which investors took as a sign of mounting worry about weakness overseas.

Yellen shared "some concern about the foreign situation," said Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, who said her comments were "pretty positive about the fundamentals here."

Economists said the confident tone of the statement from the Federal Open Market Committee signals it is on track to raise interest rates this year, while making the point it is not ignoring the weaker performance of the global economy.

GDP Expectations Fall Short

On Friday 4th quarter GDP estimates came in below economist expectations. Bloomberg reported "The advance estimate for fourth quarter GDP growth disappointed with a 2.6 percent figure versus analysts' estimate of 3.2 percent and following 5.0 percent for the third quarter. Final sales of domestic product slowed to 1.8 percent, following a 5.0 percent jump in the third quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers eased to 2.8 percent from 4.1 percent in the third quarter."

Diving Into the GDP Report

With that backdrop, lets dive into the BEA Fourth Quarter and Annual 2014 Advance GDP Estimate.

Change in Real GDP - Personal Consumption Expenditures

click on chart for sharper image

Several PCE items stand out. Is the 2.87% increase sustainable?

And what about health care? In the last three quarters, health care expenditures added 0.45, 0.52, and 0.51 percentage points to GDP. Wasn't Obamacare supposed to reduce costs?

Curiously, gasoline added 0.25 percentage points to GDP in spite of rapidly falling prices.

Motor vehicles and parts show rapidly slowing growth since second quarter. That's a trend I expect to continue.

I discussed autos on January 6 in Economists Upbeat Despite 4th Consecutive Decline in Factory Orders; Auto Orders vs. Expectations.

Autos are slowing and so will auto-related jobs. Yet economists believe "Auto sales are expected to reach their highest level in a decade this year, bolstered by strong job gains and cheap gas."

My take: Autos will soon subtract from GDP.

Change in Real GDP - Gross Private Investment, Exports

Growth in fixed investment is falling rapidly. Equipment, industrial equipment, and transportation equipment are already in contraction.

Inventories added 0.82 percentage points to fourth quarter GDP. Over time, this series trends to zero, so expect a pull back next quarter.

Rising imports subtract from GDP. Imports actually took 1.39 percentage points from GDP. If oil prices head back up, even modestly, this number could get worse.

Exports added 0.37 percentage points to fourth quarter GDP. But note the trend.

Because of the rising US dollar, export growth is dwindling. Will exports add or subtract to GDP next quarter?

All things considered, this GDP report is far more than a simple snapback from the rapid expansion last quarter.

Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015

Earlier today in Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015, I stated "A Canadian recession is underway. US will follow."

Decoupling or Not?

I remain amused by all the pundits who think the US has "decoupled" from the global economy and will grow stronger in 2015.

Let's return to a question I asked above: Will exports add or subtract to GDP next quarter?

I suggest the answer is subtract. Not only are US exports getting more expensive relative to Europe and Japan, the entire rest of the global economy is slowing rapidly. Our biggest trading partner is Canada and Canada is in recession, with a rapidly sinking loonie (Canadian dollar) on top of it.

US Recession

The US won't decouple, just as China did not decouple from the global economy in 2008-2009 (a widely-held thesis I also knocked at the time).

Indeed, now that virtually no economist expects a US recession, I believe we are finally on the cusp of one, just as the Fed seems committed to hike.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015

Posted: 31 Jan 2015 12:14 PM PST

On January 21 when the Canadian Central Bank unexpected slashed interest rates, I wrote Canadian Recession Coming Up.

Following the rate cut, the yield curve in Canada inverted out to three years. Inversion means near-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates.

I saw no other person mention the inversion at the time. An inverted yield curve generally portends recession.

Nine days later, the Canadian yield curve is still inverted. Let's compare what I posted about the curve on January 21 vs. January 30.

Canadian Yield Curve January 21

30-year: 2.044% (Today's Low 1.998%)
10-Year: 1.426% (Today's Low 1.366%)
05-Year: 0.791% (Down 19 basis points, an 18% decline)
03-Year: 0.590% (Down 27 basis points, a 31% decline)
02-Year: 0.560% (Down 29 basis points, a 34% decline)
01-Year: 0.580% (Down 34 basis points, a 37% decline)
01-Month: 0.640% (Down 22 basis points, a 26% decline)

Canadian Yield Curve January 30

30-year: 1.834% (Down 21.0 basis points)
10-Year: 1.250% (Down 17.6 basis points)
05-Year: 0.603% (Down 18.8 basis points)
03-Year: 0.386% (Down 20.4 basis points)
02-Year: 0.392% (Down 16.8 basis points)
01-Year: 0.490% (Down 9.0 basis points)
01-Month: 0.580% (Down 6.0 basis points)

Not only did yields plunge across the board since then, the yield curve is still inverted all the way out to three years.

Recession Has Arrived

There is no point in waiting for further data. The Canadian recession has already arrived.

On Friday, the Financial Post reported Canada GDP Shrinks on Biggest Factory Drop in Six Years.

The Canadian dollar plunged below 79 cents US today after data showed Canada's gross domestic product contracted in November as manufacturing dropped the most since January 2009 and on declines in mining and oil and gas extraction.

Output shrank by 0.2%, the most in 11 months, to an annualized $1.65 trillion, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa. The median forecast in a Bloomberg economist survey was for output to be little changed.

Manufacturing declined by 1.9% in November, with losses ranging from machinery and equipment to plastics and rubber.

The Bank of Canada unexpectedly lowered borrowing costs last week for the first time since 2009, saying the move was meant to provide insurance as the slump in crude oil, the nation's biggest export, weighed on the economy.

"Insurance"

The Bank of Canada called the rate cut "insurance". Insurance from what? If they think it will halt a recession, it won't. The recession is here. There is no need to wait for another quarter of declining GDP to confirm. A Canadian recession is underway.

US Will Follow

I remain amused by all the pundits who think the US has "decoupled" from the global economy and will grow stronger in 2015.

Here's news: "It won't", just as China did not decouple from the global economy in 2008-2009 (a widely-held thesis I also knocked at the time).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : The end of geography

The end of geography

Some of the most important inventions of the last hundred years:

Air conditioning--which made it possible to do productive work in any climate

Credit cards--which enabled transactions to take place at a distance

Television--which homogenized 150 world cultures into just a few

Federal Express and container ships--which made the transport of physical goods both dependable and insanely cheap

The internet--which moved information from one end of the world to the other as easily as across the room

Cell phones--which cut the wires

If you're still betting on geography, on winning merely because you're local, I hope you have a special case in mind.

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vineri, 30 ianuarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Greece Will Not Accept Bailout Extension or Deal With "Rottenly Constructed" Troika; Mish's Game Theory Math
Financial Blogger Profile of "Mish" on Equities.Com
Eurozone, Including Germany, in Deflation; Strange Times for Denmark, Deutschland and EU
Marine Le Pen Soars Into Lead in French Presidential Polls for 2017; Don't Worry, Nothing Can Possibly Go Wrong

Greece Will Not Accept Bailout Extension or Deal With "Rottenly Constructed" Troika; Mish's Game Theory Math

Posted: 30 Jan 2015 04:27 PM PST

Greece Will No Longer Deal with 'Troika'

It now strongly appears as if Greece, Germany, and the nannycrats in Brussels are all on one hell of a collision course. Both sides have dug in, and the war of words has escalated in all corners.

For example, please consider Greece Will No Longer Deal with 'Troika', Yanis Varoufakis Says

Greece will no longer co-operate with the "troika" of international lenders that has overseen its four-year bailout programme, the country's finance minister said.

Yanis Varoufakis also said Greece would not accept an extension of its EU bailout, which expires at the end of February, and without which Greek banks could be shut off from European Central Bank funding.

"This position enabled us to win the trust of the Greek people," Mr Varoufakis said during a joint news conference with Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chairman of the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, who was visiting Athens for the first time since a leftwing government came to power this week.

He also blasted the deeply unpopular bailout monitors from the European Commission, IMF and ECB, also known as " the troika", saying: "We are not going to co-operate with a rottenly constructed committee."

Germany Prepared for Negotiation But Won't Negotiate

The position of Germany and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chairman of the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, is equally one-sided.

Mr Dijsselbloem warned the new government against taking unilateral steps or ignoring arrangements with lenders, saying "the problems of the Greek economy have not disappeared overnight with the elections."

Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, warned Athens on Friday against trying to "blackmail" Germany with its financial demands.

Mr Schäuble said Germany was ready to co-operate but only on the basis of current agreements. "We're prepared for any discussions at any time but the basis can't be changed," he said. "Beyond that, it is hard to blackmail us."

Martin Jäger, the German finance ministry spokesman, said any request for an extension of the existing financing programme would only be acceptable when it was "tied with a clear readiness of Greece to implement the agreed reforms".

Gaming Theory

Everyone is willing to negotiate, but only on their terms. Realistically, no one is willing to negotiate. Moreover, the Troika has its hands full with Yanis Varoufakis, an expert who wrote a Book on Game Theory.

I suspect prime minister Alexis Tsipras picked Varoufakis precisely because of his skills at game theory.

New Game to Play

Please consider a few snips from Yanis Varoufakis: From Accidental Economist to Finance Minister by Tony Aspromourgos, Professor at University of Sydney.

Varoufakis was a gifted and popular university teacher in Sydney. I know because I taught side-by-side with him for a number of years. He was also a thoughtful and productive researcher.

His research was first focused primarily upon game theory. But he also developed an expansive intellectual reach across what may be called "political economy" in the generic sense, particularly focused on the evolution of capitalism as a global system.

Hesitant politician

Varoufakis has described himself as an "accidental economist". He is perhaps even more an accidental finance minister.

There is no reason to doubt the sincerity of his earlier expressed ambivalence about entering politics and the party-political fray. It is the vacuum created by the failure of the mainstream parties of the centre-left and centre-right that calls forth this participation.

The media's referring to the new Greek government as "far left" or "radical left" is just an intellectually lazy acquiescence in the language of the European political and policy establishment.

In truth, the position of Syriza is not so way out. Syriza is merely left-wing, whereas the mainstream European parties supposedly of the centre-left are no longer left-wing at all.

New Game to Play

I mentioned above that Varoufakis's earliest academic research was concerned with game theory, albeit from a rather critical standpoint. He has already broken down the realities of one Greek election using game analogies.

Game theory as a method of research in the social sciences is first and foremost about the logic of strategic interaction between players. The situation that is being played out now, between Greece (as well as others of the "south") and the political establishment in Europe, is without doubt a strategic situation. It is a game of high-stakes policy poker with the players on both sides, perhaps engaged in an element of bluff.

It is interesting that a game theory expert should find himself, now, at the centre of this situation. There is a great deal at stake, for the welfare of the people of Greece, the other high-debt States and Europe as a whole, as well as for the viability of the European Union and the euro.

Nobody's Right If Everybody's Wrong

What if they are all wrong?

While pondering that philosophical question I offer another musical tribute.

link if video does not play: Buffalo Springfield - Mr Soul - Live HP 1966

There's battle lines being drawn
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong
Young people speakin' their minds
A gettin' so much resistance from behind
Time we stop, hey, what's that sound?
Everybody look what's going down

Olive Branch Smashed

Greece's refusal of a bailout extension puts a time limit on matters. The existing bailout agreement expires late-February, less than a month from now.

Interesting, the refusal to accept an extension comes on this olive branch just a few hours ago: Europe Hints at Greek Bailout Extension.

Grexit in the Cards?

Unless cooler heads prevail, Grexit is in the cards.

Right now it appears as if neither side will back down. Calling the Troika "Rottenly Constructed" surely sets the tone for Greece.

"We're prepared for any discussions at any time but the basis can't be changed" sets the tone for Germany.

I wonder if the Greek position is on purpose.

Tsipras' claim that he wants Greece to stay on the euro. That helped get him elected. Is that how he really feels?

If not, then unless he gets nearly everything he wants, Grexit is all but assured. And if no agreement is reached, Tsipras has an easy fallback plan: Blame it on Germany and the much hated Troika.

Mish's Game Theory Math

Greece will be ruined if it exits. But it will also recover faster.
If Greece stays in the eurozone, on Germany's terms, it will bleed to death for another decade or more.
Germany and the Eurozone have more to lose than Greece.
If Greece exits, the entire eurozone will blow sky high simply because of "exit math"

Exit Math

I wrote about exit math twice recently.

January 22: Revised Greek Default Scenario: Liabilities Shifted to German and French Taxpayers; Bluff of the Day Revisited
January 27: Greek Payback Math at 0% Interest

If Germany and the eurozone does not bend significantly, Greece may very well come to the conclusion it has little to lose and everything to gain in the long haul by telling the Troika to go to hell.

And that is a position I endorse even though I disagree with many of the overall policies of SYRIZA.

In the end, my analysis says the eurozone has far more to lose than Greece if a Grexit occurs. However, I highly doubt Germany realizes that.

Even if Germany does, it takes unanimous agreement from all 19 eurozone countries to revise the agreement. That's part of the math.

Place your bets.

In the meantime I once again repeat my warning to Greek citizens: Another Run on Greek Banks Begins; Get Out While You Still Can; Buy Gold

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Financial Blogger Profile of "Mish" on Equities.Com

Posted: 30 Jan 2015 12:33 PM PST

Daniel Banas at Equities.Com interviewed me last week via phone for their profile series on "the most distinct and noteworthy voices in the world of financial blogging."

The interview transcript follows. First a few words ...

I am honored to be on that list.

The interview kicked off with a question on how I got started. I have commented on this before, but the short story is I was out of work, hanging around stock message boards, and Bill McBride (Calculated Risk) created the first template to my blog. Bill had just started his own blog and within a few years we became two of the top three economic blogs in the US.

Somewhere along the line Barry Rithotz at the Big Picture Blog discovered me, frequently linking back to my blog. I like to mention those who have helped me out, even if we have recent differences of opinion on various issues.

Of the three top bloggers (not counting syndicates like Paul Krugman, or multiperson sites), Calculated Risk or Ritholtz typically held the top spot, but on a few occasions, I did.

Tweet From Barry

Today, Barry was nice enough to tweet "Nice Profile of Mike Shedlock (@MishGEA) at Equities.com Global Financial Community shar.es/1omVEm".

Thanks Barry. Appreciated. Here is a link to Mish Profile on Equities.Com.

Interview with Daniel Banas

EQ: What inspired you to start Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis?

Mish: Actually, my first speech at Google was on that exact subject. My background is in Civil Engineering. I got a degree from the University of Illinois in '76 and worked for two years as an engineer. I couldn't stand it, so I started working for banks, on the computer programming side.

As an Assistant Vice President of Harris Bank, I've been through more bank mergers than anyone could imagine. I was at Chase when Chase and Chemical merged. I was at Harris Bank when the Bank of Montreal locked them out. I didn't like the culture change when BMO came in. I left, went out on my own, and became a consultant.

But anyway, I lost my job after 9/11. Computer consulting contracts started really drying up after Y2K. There were just no jobs. If you had a job in banking, you kept it. But if you were a contractor, you couldn't get one. At the time the economy was booming, and I was out of work for three years. All year round, I'd stalk message boards, and Silicon Investor happened to be one of them. I had the most popular message boards on Motley Fool and Silicon Investor, and one day, a guy named Calculated Risk, who was a poster on my board on Silicon Investor, contacted me.

EQ: Bill McBride at Calculate Risk?

Mish: Exactly. He said, "Hey, look at this. This is pretty cool. Google's got these things out there called blogs. We can post our thoughts on them." He actually created the first template for my blog, and a few years later, Calculated Risk and I were the #1 and #3 bloggers in the entire country. When he sent that email, he said, "Google has these things called blogs, and best of all, they're free!"

When you're out of work for three years, "free" is not a nicety, "free" is a requirement. That's how it all started, and then things really took off for me with a series of extremely good calls that I made about the housing bust in 2005, 2006 and 2007.

Then, when oil hit $140/barrel, everyone thought interest rates were going to go to the freaking moon. They assumed we had this massive wave of inflation coming, but I said: Expect record low interest rates across the entire U.S. treasury yield curve. People thought I was out of my mind.

EQ: Wow. Was that a profitable call for you?

Mish: Actually, I didn't make a cent off that call, because I still had a little money coming in as a result of being out of work for three years. Then, the housing bust hit and the next thing you know, Bernanke was slashing interest rates like mad. One could have bought hugely out of the money calls on interest rate futures, and made a million on a $10,000 bet. I didn't even profit from my call, other than to gain notoriety. So, that was my start right there. I certainly have not gotten everything right with the stock market, but I think I've called the global economy better than anyone since 2005.

My proudest accolade in those regards – every year in December, The New York Times comes out with their top ten ideas of the year. It can be ten ideas on anything about healthcare, industry, education, finance, anything medical. Their #1 idea for 2010, called "Do-It-Yourself Macroeconomics" was about bloggers that called the global economy better than any economist did. They mentioned three people in the article: Calculated Risk, me, and Barry Ritholtz.

See New York Times 10th Annual Year in Ideas; #1 Idea: Do-It-Yourself Macroeconomics.

EQ: That's rarefied air. When you called the housing bubble, and you called oil, what were you drawing upon to make those calls?

Mish: First off, I could see the housing crash. This was pretty easy. We had a bubble in housing, and then a crash. So I could see Bernanke lowering interest rates. To me, oil going up to $140 was just more icing on the cake.

We were shedding jobs like mad and the price of gas was going through the roof. Where was it going? To me, it was real simple. I was also one of the few that called deflation. Deflation is still my model, although I define it a little bit differently than other people. I had so many people mocking me, and now deflation is all everyone is talking about.

Yet, I'm still mocked for the call. All the hyperinflationists out there still think I'm a fool, but I don't care. I called it right. One thing that I've gotten wrong – and it's important to admit your mistakes – I absolutely thought there was close to no chance that the US stock market would get as high as it has in the last two years. I failed to see how much QE would benefit the US stock market, even if it didn't in Europe and other places. That was my miss, but that's actually more of a stock market miss than an economic miss. Regardless, my record is certainly far from perfect.

EQ: Where do you think the US stock market is heading now?

Mish: (laughs) I've been wrong for two years, but I'll be happy to answer. I think we're seeing the beginning of the end. One of the things I said was that the idea that Central Banks are in control is wildly wrong. I don't think they're in control of anything. The reaction from the European Central Bank is going to be interesting to watch. Everyone's expecting this massive bazooka. Even if they deliver and actually shock the market with some announcement—which I don't even think they're going to do – it wouldn't surprise me to see a knee-jerk reaction higher, and an immediate sell off all day once people realize the emperor has no clothes.

EQ: So you don't think the ECB is going to do enough to pull Europe out of their funk?

Mish: No. Look at the market reaction when the Swiss National Bank removed the peg to everyone's surprise. We saw it again with the action from the Bank of Canada. Europe is slowing – Germany's going to go into recession and take all of Europe with it. Spain is sort of recovering, but Italy and France aren't, so where is Europe headed once Germany goes down?

China is clearly slowing as well. That's another thing that I got right. I picked up a lot of that from Michael Pettis. Some of the things I got right were just from reading – all these views are out there, and deciding who makes the most sense.

The Australian dollar collapsed. I've gotten that right, iron ore right, and the Canadian dollar right, all for the right reason (China was slowing far more than most thought). Still, sitting on the sidelines didn't translate to any gains in the stock market. We lost clients, as did others like John Hussman, by trying to do the prudent thing.

EQ: What's the lesson we can take away from all the contraction?

Mish: People are willing to forgive you when you lose money – when the stock markets are going down – but heaven forbid, don't ever miss a rally! Of course, that philosophy encourages more speculation.

Here's the key question: Do you not speculate and lose clients when overvalued markets soar for no fundamental reason, or do you speculate with the herds and lose on the way down? That's the moral dilemma for investment managers. We saw that dilemma in 2000, in 2007, and again now. The problem compounds over time because the size of the bubbles (and the busts) have increased over time.

In a way, the central banks won. Bernanke won, for now. The cover of Time declared "We Saved the World," but watch what happens when the U.S. stock market goes down again.

In regards to the strength of the economy, every economist that Bloomberg surveyed said US interest rates would rise in 2014. I said they'd fall, and so did Lacy Hunt at Van Hoisington, manager of a $4 billion dollar US treasury fund. We both got the economic call correctly, but stocks soared anyway.

A lot of what I do is just to sort through all the news and try to figure out "Who is it that I want to believe and who is it I don't?"

Sometimes I disagree with all of them. I have a disagreement right now with Michael Pettis on the global glut savings thesis, although I agree with him on nearly everything else. At some point, you've got to be your own person.

EQ: With so many differing opinions, what differentiates Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis from other financial blogs out there?

Mish: That's easy – unlike Zero Hedge, my blog is just me. One advantage of just being me, and not taking a lot of guest posts, is that I provide a consistent point-of-view. That doesn't mean I'm incapable of changing my mind – sometimes I do, but not that often.

I don't post a lot of conspiracy theories – I don't believe in them. That would be something that Zero Hedge might do. One day he might be talking hyperinflation, and the next day deflation. Some of the opinions are his and some are guest posts, so you start trying to be everything to everyone and throwing conspiracy theories on top of all of it – there's no consistent point-of-view.

Calculated Risk does provide a consistent point-of-view. But his focus is mainly on the U.S. and housing. I go far more into Europe and Asia than most do. I also exchange emails all the time with a number of globally prominent economists, so I would say that's a differentiation.

EQ: What general theses can visitors to your blog expect to read about these days?

Mish: Readers can expect commentary on the slowing global economy, global interest rates, the potential breakup of the Eurozone and what that may mean, and valuations of equities and various bonds.

I like gold. I like the miners. I've been on the wrong side of that trade actually for a few years, although I really, really like the recent action. I like Japanese equities, but hedged for a plunge in the yen. I think that trade has tremendous potential. Unlike the US, there's a very decent chance that Japan goes into hyperinflation.

If that happens, that long Japanese equities but short the yen could literally be the trade of the century. Whether it plays out that way or not, and what timeframe, I don't know. It all depends on how insane Abenomics in Japan gets.

EQ: Where do you stand on gold?

Mish: In regards to gold, it's the same way. Most people don't realize this, but gold traditionally does poorly in periods of disinflation. It does very well in periods of credit stress. It does well in periods of stagflation. It does very well in periods of deflation.

What I sense happening now is the global economy is shifting from disinflation to a deflationary bias.

People think that gold is some kind of inflation hedge, but it's really not. Gold fell from $800 in 1980 to $250 in 2000 with inflation every step of the way. What happened in that period? The answer is falling interest rates, all along the way. That's an environment in which gold does pretty badly.

In 2001 we started to see gold react to Fed deflation fighting moves. Gold soared along with everything else. Then, starting in 2011 or so, with ECB president Mario Draghi's "Whatever it takes" statement we had this renewed and unfounded faith in central banks. Gold plunged as it normally does, when people have great faith in central banks.

Since early November, the thesis that central banks are in control is coming into question once again. Gold has been rising in every major currency, including the dollar, and especially the Euro.

When Jim Grant was once asked 'how should one value gold?', he proposed that the value of gold probably is '1/N', with 'N' standing for the faith people have in the monetary authority. The more this faith declines, the higher the price of gold will go.

My prediction for this year was that gold would rise with the U.S. dollar in the beginning of the year, and then soar in the latter half of this year, when all of these bets that the U.S. will hike because of a strengthening US economy go down the drain. Perhaps they get in a hike or two, then what?

EQ: That would go against common wisdom, but it does seem to make sense. Do you have one specific, overarching philosophy to investing?

Mish: Here's some general advice: Don't leverage. Be prepared to lose your job. Have six months, preferably a year's worth, of money in cash in case you do lose your job. Once again everyone thinks "cash is trash". When everyone or nearly everyone takes that view, look out below.

Wait for better investment opportunities. It's far easier to make up for lost opportunities than to recover from huge stock market losses. And finally, consider having 10 to 25% of your assets in gold (but no more than you can sleep with). Some people have higher tolerances than others.

That's my whole thesis here right now. People don't have to like shorts. They don't need to do short. Even if they think the market's going to go down, a lot of times, bears lose in bear markets. Sometimes the winner is he who loses least, so take some chips off the table and reduce your risk.

End Interview

Thanks to Bill McBride, Barry Ritholtz, Minyanville, Heinz Blasnik (the person who taught me Austrian economics), Michael Pettis (who taught me everything I know about trade), Steve Keen (for debt deflation theories), Daniel Banas, and everyone else who helped me along the way.

If you think I missed your name, I probably did. Apologies offered and mentally add you to the list cited.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Eurozone, Including Germany, in Deflation; Strange Times for Denmark, Deutschland and EU

Posted: 30 Jan 2015 11:31 AM PST

Eurostat released HICP Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices statistics today.

In spite of promising that deflation would not hit again, here we are, and for the second month too.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.6% in January 2015, down from -0.2% in December 2014 according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. This negative rate for euro area annual inflation in January is driven by the fall in energy prices (-8.9%, compared with -6.3% in December). Prices are also expected to fall for food, alcohol & tobacco (-0.1%, compared with 0.0% in December) and non-energy industrial goods (-0.1%, compared with 0.0% in December). Only prices for services are expected to increase (1.0%, compared with 1.2% in December).

HICP vs. Year Ago

click on any chart for sharper image

HICP Components by Month

HIPC 2005 to 2015 History

Even Germany in Deflation

The BBC reports Denmark, Deutschland and deflation: strange times for EU.

New official figures from Germany show that prices have fallen, by 0.5%, over the previous 12 months.

Meanwhile the Danish Central Bank has cut one of its main interest rates for the second time in a week.

It is a rate paid to commercial banks for excess funds parked at the central bank. It was already below zero. Now it is even lower - minus 0.5%.

It means banks have to pay to leave money at the central bank, above certain specified limits.

Negative interest rates are another example of the strange financial world that has emerged in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

What is the connection between falling prices - or deflation - in Germany and the Danish central bank? It is about Denmark's 35-year policy of tying its currency, the krone, to the euro, and before that to the German mark.

That peg has come under increasing strain as the European Central Bank, the ECB, has taken steps to combat deflation.

Denmark Peg

How long will Denmark be able to keep its peg to the euro?

The BBC says "Denmark is a smaller financial system and it is not an established magnet for internationally mobile money in the way that Switzerland is." The presumption is Denmark can keep its peg because its not an international player.

I say watch what happens if hedge funds start monkeying around with the Danish krone in size. We could easily see another Swiss-style event, albeit with smaller repercussions given that the krone is not the same hotbed of foreign mortgage obligations as Switzerland.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Marine Le Pen Soars Into Lead in French Presidential Polls for 2017; Don't Worry, Nothing Can Possibly Go Wrong

Posted: 29 Jan 2015 11:32 PM PST

In spite of the Charlie Hebdo murders that raised the popularity of French president Francois Hollande and his staff, Les Echos reports than in the 2017 presidential election anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen in the 1st Round Lead With Nearly 30% of the Vote.

According to an IFOP 2017 presidential poll released Thursday, Marine Le Pen would come out clearly in the lead if the first round of presidential elections was held on Sunday.

Le Pen would get 29 to 31% of the vote. No rival would exceed 23%. Nicolas Sarkozy, Manuel Valls, and Alain Juppé, each have around 23%. François Hollande would get 21%.

Francois Bayrou would obtain 7 to 9%, Mélenchon 8%, Cécile Duflot and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan between 3 and 4% and the far left between 2 and 3%.

Prime Minister Valls would do better than Francois Hollande, with 23% of the vote.

Too Early Too Worry

Don't worry about 2017 until December 31, 2016. Instead worry about Greece and especially Spain. Spanish elections are scheduled for November of 2015.

On January 12, in Zugzwang! I noted the Spanish radical left party Podemos surges into lead. That surge adds another contagion wrinkle given the Podemos "Economic Manifesto" Calls for Debt Restructuring, Spain to Abandon the "Euro Trap".

"Spaniards should be aware that it is physically impossible that they can pursue policies that meet the national interest, within the euro as it is designed. The euro was conceived as a real trap, but nowhere is it written that people have to accept it ."

Inquiring minds may also wish to consider the Incredible Populist Positions in Podemos' "Economic Manifesto".

Don't Worry, Everything Under Control

In retrospect, it appears there may be too many things to worry about. So instead, sit back and relax. Repeat after me ... Nothing can possibly go wrong because central bankers are in complete control.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

A Universal SEO Strategy Audit in 5 Steps - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

A Universal SEO Strategy Audit in 5 Steps - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog
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A Universal SEO Strategy Audit in 5 Steps - Whiteboard Friday

Posted on: Friday 30 January 2015 — 01:15

Posted by randfish

When it comes to building an SEO strategy, many marketers (especially those who don't spend a significant amount of time with SEO) start off by asking a few key questions. That's a good start, but only if you're asking the right questions. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand puts the usual suspects on the chopping block, showing us the five things we should really be looking into when formulating our SEO strategy.

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard!

Video transcription

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're chatting about building an SEO strategy and having a universal set of five questions that can get you there.

So number one: What keywords do you want to rank for?

Number two: How do we get links?

Number three: Site speed. Mobile? Doesn't even seem like a question.

Number four: What about Penguin and Panda?

Number five: When do I get money?

This is bologna. That's not a strategy. Some of those go to tactics you might invest in an SEO, but this is not an SEO strategy. Unfortunately, this is how a lot of conversations about SEO start at teams, with CMOs, with managers, with CEOs, with clients or potential clients, and it's very frustrating because you can't truly do a great job with SEO just in the tactical level. If you don't start with a compelling strategy, doing all of these things is only going to produce a small amount of potential return compared to if you ask the right questions and you get your strategy set before you begin an SEO process and nailing your tactics.

So that's what I want to go through. I spend a lot of time thinking through these things and analyzing a lot of posts that other people have put up and questions that folks have put in our Q&A system and others, on Quora and other places. I think actually every great SEO strategy that I have ever seen can be the distilled down to answers that come from these five questions.

So number one: What does our organization create that helps solve searchers' questions or problems? That could be, "Or what will we create in the future?" It might be that you haven't yet created the thing or things that's going to help solve searchers' questions or problems. But that thing that you make, that product or service or content that you are making, that expertise that you hold, something about your organization is creating value that if only searchers could access it, they would be immensely thankful.

It is possible, and I have seen plenty of examples of companies that are so new or so much on the cutting edge that they're producing things that aren't solving questions people are asking yet. The problem that you're solving then is not a question. It's not something that's being searched for directly. It usually is very indirect. If you're creating a machine that, let's say, turns children's laughter into energy, as they do in the film "Monsters, Inc.", that is something very new. No one is searching for machine to turn kids laughing into energy. However, many people are searching for alternative energy. They're searching for broader types of things and concepts. By the way, if you do invent that machine, I think you'll probably nail a lot of that interest level stuff.

If you have a great answer to this, you can then move on to, "What is the unique value we provide that no one else does?" We talked about unique value previously on Whiteboard Friday. There's a whole episode you can watch about that. Basically, if everyone else out there is producing X and X+1 and X+2, you've either got to be producing X times 10, or you've got to be producing Y, something that is highly unique or is unique because it is of such better quality, such greater quality. It does the job so much better than anything else out there. It's not, "Hey, we're better than the top ten search results." It's, "Why are you ten times better than anything on this list?"

The third question is, "Who's going to help amplify our message, and why will they do it?" This is essential because SEO has turned from an exercise, where we essentially take content that already exists or create some content that will solve a searcher problem and then try and acquire links to it, or point links to it, or point ranking signals at it, and instead it's ones where we have to go out and earn those ranking signals. Because we've shifted from link building or ranking signal building to ranking signal earning, we better have people who will help amplify our message, the content that we create, the value that we provide, the service or the product, the message about our brand.

If we don't have those people who, for some reason, care enough about what we're doing to help share it with others, we're going to be shouting into a void. We're going to get no return on the investment of broadcasting our message or reaching out one to one, or sharing on social media, or distributing. It's not going to work. We need that amplification. There must be some of it, and because we need amplification in order to earn these ranking signals, we need an answer to who.

That who is going to depend highly on your target audience, your target customers, and who influences your target customers, which may be a very different group than other customers just like them. There are plenty of businesses in industries where your customers will be your worst amplifiers because they love you and they don't want to share you with anyone else. They love whatever product or service you're providing, and they want to keep you all to themselves. By the way, they're not on social media, and they don't do sharing. So you need another level above them. You need press or bloggers or social media sharers, somebody who influences your target audience.

Number four: What is our process for turning visitors from search into customers? If you have no answer to this, you can't expect to earn search visits and have a positive return on your investment. You've got to be building out that funnel that says, "Aha, people have come to us through channel X, search, social media, e-mail, directly visited, referred from some other website, through business development, through conference or trade show, whatever it is. Then they come back to our website. Then they sign up for an e-mail. Then they make a conversion. How does that work? What does our web-marketing funnel look like? How do we take people that visited our site for the first time from search, from a problem or a question that they had that we answered, and now how do they become a customer?" If you don't have that process yet, you must build it. That's part of a great SEO strategy. Then optimization of this is often called conversion rate optimization.

The last question, number five: How do we expose what we do that provides value here in a way that engines can easily crawl, index, understand, and show off? This is getting to much more classic SEO stuff. For many companies they have something wonderful that they've built, but it's just a mobile app or a web app that has no physical URL structure that anyone can crawl and be exposed to, or it's a service based business.

Let's say it's legal services firm. How are we going to turn the expertise of our legal team into something that engines can perceive? Maybe we have the answers to these questions, but we need to find some way to show it off, and that's where content creation comes into play. So we don't just need content that is good quality content that can be crawled and indexed. It also must be understood, and this ties a little bit to things we've talked about in the past around Hummingbird, where it's clear that the content is on the topic and that it really answers the searchers' underlying question, not just uses the keywords the searcher is using. Although, using the keywords is still important from a classic SEO perspective.

Then show off that content is, "How do we do a great job of applying rich snippets, of applying schema, of having a very compelling title and description and URL, of getting that ranked highly, of learning what our competitors are doing that we can uniquely differentiate from them in the search results themselves so that we can improve our click-through rates," all of those kinds of things.

If you answer these five questions, or if your customer, your client, your team, your boss already has great answers to these five questions, then you can start getting pretty tactical and be very successful. If you don't have answers to these yet, go get them. Make them explicit, not just implicit. Don't just assume you know what they are. Have them list them. Make sure everyone on the team, everyone in the SEO process has bought into, "Yes, these are the answers to those five questions that we have. Now, let's go do our tactics." I think you'll find you're far more successful with any type of SEO project or investment.

All right gang, thanks so much for joining us on Whiteboard Friday, and we'll see you again next week. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com

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A Universal SEO Strategy Audit in 5 Steps - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

A Universal SEO Strategy Audit in 5 Steps - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog
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